United Kingdom general election, 2015 (Wales)

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United Kingdom general election, 2015

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All 40 Welsh seats to the House of Commons

  First party Second party
  Ed Miliband 2.jpg David Cameron official.jpg
Leader Ed Miliband David Cameron
Party Labour Conservative
Leader since 25 September 2010 6 December 2005
Last election 26 seats, 36.2% 8 seats, 26.1%
Seats won 25 11
Seat change Decrease1 Increase3
Popular vote 552,473 408,213
Percentage 36.9% 27.2%
Swing Increase0.6% Increase1.1%

  Third party Fourth party
  Leanne Wood 2011 (cropped).tif Nick Clegg by the 2009 budget cropped.jpg
Leader Leanne Wood Nick Clegg
Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrat
Leader since 16 March 2012 18 December 2007
Last election 3 seats, 11.3% 3 seats, 20.1%
Seats won 3 1
Seat change Steady Decrease2
Popular vote 181,704 97,783
Percentage 12.1% 6.5%
Swing Increase0.8% Decrease13.6%

WalesParliamentaryConstituency2015Results.svg
Results of the 2015 election in Wales

The 2015 United Kingdom general election in Wales was held on 7 May 2015 and all 40 seats in Wales were contested.[1][2] The election for each seat was conducted on the basis of first-past-the-post.

Results overview[edit]

A full list of the results in Wales can be found in the House of Commons Library General Elections Online.[2] The following is an overall table of results for Wales by the BBC.[3]

Party Seats Votes
Total Gained Lost Net Total % Change (%)
  Labour1 25 1 2 −1 552,473 36.9 +0.6
  Conservative 11 3 0 +3 407,813 27.2 +1.1
  UKIP 0 0 0 0 204,330 13.6 +11.2
  Plaid Cymru 3 0 0 0 181,704 12.1 +0.8
  Liberal Democrats 1 0 2 −2 97,783 6.5 −13.6
  Green 0 0 0 0 38,344 2.6 +2.1
  Socialist Labour Party 0 0 0 0 3,481 0.2 +0.2
  TUSC 0 0 0 0 1,780 0.1 +0.1
  Others 0 0 0 0 10,355 0.7 −0.5
Total 40 1,498,063

1 Labour Co-operative Party are also included in the Labour figures.

Popular vote
Labour
36.87%
Conservative
27.22%
UKIP
13.64%
Plaid Cymru
12.13%
Liberal Democrats
6.53%
Greens
2.56%
Other
1.05%
Parliament seats
Labour
62.50%
Conservative
27.50%
Plaid Cymru
7.50%
Liberal Democrats
2.50%
Election turnout statistics source and comment
Estimated total population of Wales 3.1M [4] data for 30 June 2015
Total eligible electorate 2.281M 1[5]
electorate as proportion of total population 74%
Total valid votes 1.498M 1[6]
Mean turnout based on total valid votes 65.67%
Mean as average of constituency results 65.64%
Mean as above but based on ballot box turnout 65.77% 1 ballot box turnout includes rejected ballots[6]
Median valid vote turnout 65.0% turnout midway between 20th and 21st constituency
UK median valid vote turnout 66.7% [7] for comparison with above

1 valid vote, count of rejected ballots and total electorate come from the source(s) given in 'Table of results by constituency' below.

Table of results by constituency
constituency 1 total electorate 2 winning party majority source(s)
Aberavon 49,821 Welsh Labour hold 10,445 [8]
Aberconwy 45,525 Welsh Conservative Party hold 3,999 [9]
Alyn and Deeside 62,016 Welsh Labour hold 3,343 [10]
Arfon 40,492 Plaid Cymru hold 3,668 [11][12]
Blaenau Gwent 51,335 Welsh Labour hold 12,703 [13]
Brecon and Radnorshire 54,441 Welsh Conservative Party gain 5,102 [14][15]
Bridgend 59,998 Welsh Labour hold 1,927 [16]
Caerphilly 63,603 Welsh Labour hold 10,073 [17]
Cardiff Central 57,456 Welsh Labour gain 4,981 [18]
Cardiff North 67,196 Welsh Conservative Party hold 2,137 [19]
Cardiff South and Penarth 76,006 Labour Co-operative Party hold 7,453 [20]
Cardiff West 66,762 Welsh Labour hold 6,789 [21]
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 55,605 Plaid Cymru hold 5,599 [22][23]
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 57,777[24] Welsh Conservative Party hold 6,054 [25]
Ceredigion 54,243 Welsh Liberal Democrats hold 3,067 [26]
Clwyd South 54,996 Welsh Labour hold 2,402 [27]
Clwyd West 58,644 Welsh Conservative Party hold 6,730 [28]
Cynon Valley 51,422 Welsh Labour hold 9,406 [29]
Delyn 53,639 Welsh Labour hold 2,930 [30]
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 44,394 Plaid Cymru hold 5,261 [11][31]
Gower 61,820 Welsh Conservative Party gain 27 [32]
Islwyn 55,697 Labour Co-operative Party hold 10,404 [33]
Llanelli 59,796 Welsh Labour hold 7,095 [34][35]
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 61,716 Welsh Labour hold 11,513 [36]
Monmouth 62,248 Welsh Conservative Party hold 10,982 [37]
Montgomeryshire 48,690 Welsh Conservative Party hold 5,325 [14][38]
Neath 56,097 Welsh Labour hold 9,546 [8]
Newport East 56,015 Welsh Labour hold 4,705 [39][40]
Newport West 62,137 Welsh Labour hold 3,510 [39][41]
Ogmore 55,320[42] Welsh Labour hold 13,043 [16]
Pontypridd 58,940 Welsh Labour hold 8,985 [29]
Preseli Pembrokeshire 57,371[24] Welsh Conservative Party hold 4,969 [25]
Rhondda 51,811 Welsh Labour hold 7,455 [29]
Swansea East 58,011 Welsh Labour hold 12,028 [32]
Swansea West 58,776 Welsh Labour 3 hold 7,036 [32]
Torfaen 61,896 Welsh Labour hold 8,169 [43]
Vale of Clwyd 56,505 Welsh Conservative Party gain 237 [44]
Vale of Glamorgan 72,187 Welsh Conservative Party hold 6,880 [45]
Wrexham 50,992 Welsh Labour hold 1,831 [46]
Ynys Môn 49,939 Welsh Labour hold 229 [47][48]

1 The information on the winning party and the majority come from the source(s) indicated.
2 The total electorate comes from[2] unless another reference is given.
3 The MP is a Labour Co-op Party member[49] but he was nominated as 'Welsh Labour'.[50]

Target seats[edit]

Labour[edit]

Conservative[edit]

Plaid Cymru[edit]

Opinion polling[edit]

Date(s) conducted

Polling organisation/client

Sample size

Plaid

Lab

Con

LD

UKIP

Green

Others

Lead
16 April 2015 Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
13–15 April 2015 YouGov/ITV/Cardiff University 1,143 12% 40% 26% 6% 13% 4% <0.5% 14%
2 April 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
26–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Sun 1,035 9% 40% 27% 6% 13% 5% 1% 13%
30 March 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
24–27 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,189 11% 40% 25% 5% 14% 5% 1% 15%
26 March 2015 First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
5–9 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 10% 39% 25% 5% 14% 6% 1% 14%
19–21 Jan 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 10% 37% 23% 6% 16% 8% 1% 14%
8–13 Jan 2015 ICM/BBC Wales 1,004 12% 38% 21% 7% 13% 6% 2% 17%
2–3 Dec 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 11% 36% 23% 5% 18% 5% 2% 13%
19–22 Sep 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,006 13% 39% 23% 5% 16% 2% 1% 16%
8–11 Sep 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 11% 38% 23% 6% 17% 5% 1% 15%
26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 11% 41% 25% 5% 14% 3% 2% 16%
22 May 2014 European Parliament Elections, 2014
12–14 May 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,092 11% 43% 22% 7% 13% 3% 2% 21%
11–22 Apr 2014 YouGov/University of Cardiff 1,027 11% 45% 24% 7% 10% 1% 2% 21%
21–24 Feb 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,000 15% 45% 24% 6% 8% 2% 1% 21%
10–12 Feb 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 11% 47% 22% 7% 9% 2% 2% 25%
2–4 Dec 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 12% 46% 21% 8% 10% 2% 2% 25%
18–22 Jul 2013 YouGov 1,012 9% 48% 23% 8% 8% 2% 2% 25%
18–20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 10% 51% 22% 9% 7% 1% 1% 29%
2–4 Jul 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,000 10% 54% 23% 4% 9% 21%
3 May 2012 Welsh Local Elections, 2012
12–16 Apr 2012 YouGov 1,039 12% 50% 23% 7% 9% 27%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,008 11% 50% 25% 6% 5% 3% 2% 25%
5 May 2011 Welsh Assembly Election, 2011
2–4 May 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,010 10% 50% 24% 8% 4% 2% 2% 25%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 1,466,690 11.3% 36.2% 26.1% 20.1% 2.4% 0.4% 3.4% 10%

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Election 2015 – Wales". BBC News. Retrieved 8 May 2015. 
  2. ^ a b c "May 2015 results for Wales". General Elections Online. House of Commons Library. Retrieved 2 September 2015. 
  3. ^ "Results of the 2015 General Election in Wales – Election 2015 – BBC News". BBC News. Retrieved 3 January 2016. 
  4. ^ "Population of Wales 2014". Overview of the UK Population. UK Office of National Statistics. Retrieved 18 September 2015. 
  5. ^ "eligible voters". Who is eligible to vote at a UK general election?. The Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 September 2015. 
  6. ^ a b "Voter turnout". Electoral data. The Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 September 2015. 
  7. ^ "Ranked list of constituencies by turnout". General Elections Online. House of Commons Library. Retrieved 6 September 2015. 
  8. ^ a b "Aberavon and Neath Results" (PDF). UK Parliamentary Elections May 2015 results. Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council. Archived from the original (PDF) on 5 October 2015. Retrieved 16 September 2015. 
  9. ^ "Aberconwy Result" (PDF). Election Results. Conwy County Borough Council. Retrieved 16 September 2015. 
  10. ^ "Alyn and Deeside result". Election Results For Alyn And Deeside. Flintshire County Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015. 
  11. ^ a b "Gwynedd Council results". Parliamentary Election results – 7 May 2015. Gwynedd Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015. 
  12. ^ rejected ballots 95 email from Gwynedd Council 3Jun15
  13. ^ "Blaenau Gwent result". Blaenau Gwent Parliamentary Constituency Election 2015. Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council. Archived from the original on 8 July 2015. Retrieved 20 September 2015. 
  14. ^ a b "Powys election results". 2015 General Election results. Powys County Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015. 
  15. ^ rejected ballots 71 email from Powys County Council 15Jul15
  16. ^ a b "Bridgend and Ogmore results". Elections. Bridgend County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  17. ^ "Caerphilly result". General Election 2015 – Results for Caerphilly constituency. Caerphilly County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  18. ^ "Cardiff Central result". Election results for Cardiff Central. City of Cardiff Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  19. ^ "Cardiff North result". Election results for Cardiff North. City of Cardiff Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  20. ^ "Cardiff South and Penarth result". Election results for Cardiff South and Penarth. City of Cardiff Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  21. ^ "Cardiff West result". Election results for Cardiff West. City of Cardiff Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  22. ^ "Carmarthen East result". The Newsroom. Carmarthenshire County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  23. ^ rejected ballots 61 email from Carmarthenshire County Council 27Jul15
  24. ^ a b email from Pembrokeshire County Council 14Jul15
  25. ^ a b "Pembrokeshire results". Election Results. Pembrokeshire County Council. Archived from the original on 18 December 2011. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  26. ^ "Ceredigion result". UK Parliamentary General Election 2015. Ceredigion County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  27. ^ "Clwyd South result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Wrexham County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  28. ^ "Clwyd West result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Conwy County Borough Council. Archived from the original (PDF) on 26 September 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  29. ^ a b c "Rhondda Cynon Taf". Parliamentary General Elections 2015. Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council. Archived from the original on 25 September 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  30. ^ "Delyn result". Election Results For Delyn. Flintshire County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  31. ^ rejected ballots 65 email from Gwynedd Council 3Jun15
  32. ^ a b c "Swansea results". Results – UK Parliamentary general election 2015. City and County of Swansea. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  33. ^ "Islwyn result". General Election 2015 – Results for Islwyn constituency. Caerphilly County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  34. ^ "Llanelli result". The Newsroom. Carmarthenshire County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  35. ^ rejected ballots 40 email from Carmarthenshire County Council 27Jul15
  36. ^ "Merthyr result". Election results for Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney. Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  37. ^ "Monmouth result" (PDF). Declaration of Result of Poll. Monmouthshire County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  38. ^ rejected ballots 54 email from Powys County Council 15Jul15
  39. ^ a b "Newport results". General Election 7 May 2015. Newport City Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  40. ^ rejected ballots 70 email from Newport City Council 4Sep15
  41. ^ rejected ballots 76 email from Newport City Council 4Sep15
  42. ^ email from Bridgend County Borough Council 29Jun15
  43. ^ "Torfaen result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Torfaen County Borough Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015. 
  44. ^ "Vale of Clwyd result". Election results for Vale of Clwyd. Denbighshire County Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015. 
  45. ^ "Vale of Glamorgan result" (PDF). Statement of Results. Vale of Glamorgan Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015. 
  46. ^ "Wrexham result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Wrexham County Borough Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015. 
  47. ^ "Election results for Ynys Môn". Election results for Ynys Môn. Isle of Anglesey Count Council. Retrieved 16 September 2015. 
  48. ^ "Formal Result for Ynys Môn" (PDF). Declaration of Result of Poll. Isle of Anglesey County Council. Retrieved 16 September 2015. 
  49. ^ "Co-op Party MPs". Members of Parliament. The Co-operative Party. Retrieved 6 September 2015. 
  50. ^ "Swansea Persons Nominated". Notices (UK parliamentary general election 2015). City and County of Swansea. Archived from the original on 5 October 2015. Retrieved 6 September 2015.