Draft:2028 United States presidential election: Difference between revisions
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[[Article Two of the United States Constitution|Article Two]] of the [[United States Constitution]] states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a [[Natural-born-citizen clause (United States)|natural-born citizen of the United States]], be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The [[Twenty-second Amendment]] forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Both incumbent president Biden and former president [[Donald Trump]] are eligible. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of [[Primary election|primary elections]] that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. The national convention chooses a vice presidential [[running mate]] to form that party's [[Ticket (election)|ticket]]. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention. |
[[Article Two of the United States Constitution|Article Two]] of the [[United States Constitution]] states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a [[Natural-born-citizen clause (United States)|natural-born citizen of the United States]], be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The [[Twenty-second Amendment]] forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Both incumbent president Biden and former president [[Donald Trump]] are eligible. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of [[Primary election|primary elections]] that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. The national convention chooses a vice presidential [[running mate]] to form that party's [[Ticket (election)|ticket]]. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention. |
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Revision as of 02:39, 27 December 2023
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 2028 electoral map, based on 2020 census | |||||||
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The 2028 United States presidential election will be the 61st quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
The winner of this election will be inaugurated on January 20, 2029.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Both incumbent president Biden and former president Donald Trump are eligible. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. The national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president. Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election.
Electoral map
Effects of the 2020 census
This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census. If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.
Electoral partisanship
Approximate partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored grey. In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive, since their demographics keep them solidly behind one party. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that swing states—states that are typically very competitive and "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties—are vital to winning the presidency. These include states in the Midwestern United States, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Due to gradual demographic shifts, some swing states such as Iowa, Ohio, and Florida have shifted significantly towards Republicans, favoring them in statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, states like Colorado, Minnesota and Virginia have moved noticeably towards Democrats, and they have become the dominant political force there.
The traditional Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, is mainly composed of minority groups (especially African-Americans and Latinos), women, educated professionals, and urban voters. Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party became significantly more educated, diverse, and culturally liberal. Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural white voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters. Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement, a brand of right-wing populism cultivated by former President Donald Trump. The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, since the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.
Candidates
Democratic Party
Potential candidates
- Andy Beshear, 63rd Governor of Kentucky (2019–present), 50th Attorney General of Kentucky (2016–2019)[1]
- Pete Buttigieg, 19th United States Secretary of Transportation (2021–present), 32nd Mayor of South Bend (2012-2020), candidate for president in 2020[2][3]
- Kamala Harris, 49th Vice President of the United States (2021–present), U.S. Senator from California (2017-2021), 32nd Attorney General of California, (2011-2017), 27th District Attorney of San Francisco (2004–2011), candidate for president in 2020[4][5][6]
- Ro Khanna, United States Representative from CA-17 (2017–present)[7]
- Wes Moore, 63rd Governor of Maryland (2023–present)[8]
- Gavin Newsom, 40th Governor of California (2019–present), 49th Lieutenant Governor of California (2011–2019), 41st Mayor of San Francisco (2004–2011)[9]
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Representative from New York's 14th congressional district (2019–present)[10]
- Jared Polis, 43rd Governor of Colorado (2019–present), U.S. Representative from Colorado's 2nd congressional district (2009–2019), member of the Colorado State Board of Education from the at-large district[11]
- J. B. Pritzker, 43rd Governor of Illinois (2019–present)[9]
- Josh Shapiro, 48th Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present), 50th Attorney General of Pennsylvania (2017–2023), Member of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners (2012–2017), Member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives from the 153rd district (2005–2012)[9]
- Raphael Warnock, U.S. Senator from Georgia (2021–present)[11][12]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present), candidate for president in 2020[11][13]
- Gretchen Whitmer, 49th Governor of Michigan (2019–present), Ingham County Prosecuting Attorney (2016), Minority Leader of the Michigan Senate (2011–2015) from the 23rd district (2006–2015), member of the Michigan House of Representatives from the 69th district (2001–2006)[9]
Republican Party
Publicly expressed interest
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present), 3rd Texas Solicitor General (2003–2008), candidate for president in 2016[14]
Potential candidates
- Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight (2016–2023)[15]
- Ron DeSantis, 46th Governor of Florida (2019–present), U.S. Representative from Florida's 6th congressional district (2013-2018), candidate for president in 2024[16]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021), chairman of The Trump Organization (1971–2017), candidate for president in 2000, 2016, 2020, and 2024[17][18]
Independent Candidates
Other Potential Candidates
Declared Intent to run
Potential Candidates
References
- ^ Gans, Jared (November 8, 2023). "Beshear's star rises after Kentucky victory". The Hill.
- ^ Rossomando, John (May 4, 2023). "Will Pete Buttigieg Run For President?". 1945.
- ^ Funt, Peter (May 18, 2019). "Dem candidate Buttigieg paving way to 2028 run". Abeline Reporter News.
- ^ Thompson, Alex; Cai, Sophia (November 2, 2023). "Democrats quietly move to succeed Biden". Axios.
- ^ Johnson, Julia (August 29, 2023). "Democratic stars get head start on 2028 battle to succeed Biden". Washington Examiner.
- ^ Bierman, Noah; Kaur, Anumita (October 15, 2022). "Kamala Harris campaigns with Gretchen Whitmer in potential 2028 preview". Los Angeles Times.
- ^ Nichols, John (April 28, 2023). "Ro Khanna Isn't Running for President, Yet". The Nation.
- ^ Wong, Scott; Santaliz, Kate (March 2, 2023). "Maryland Gov. Wes Moore generates buzz — and his own selfie line — rallying House Democrats". NBC News.
- ^ a b c d Peoples, Steve; Weissert, Will (September 29, 2023). "Democratic rising stars rally around Biden's reelection. They're also eyeing 2028 bids of their own". ABC News.
- ^ Stanage, Niall (July 29, 2022). "The Memo: No, really — What if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for president?". The Hill.
- ^ a b c Barkan, Ross (July 13, 2022). "Who Comes After Bernie?". Intelligencer.
- ^ Chakraborty, Barnini (December 9, 2022). "Raphael Warnock eyed as early contender for 2028 presidential race following runoff win". Washington Examiner.
- ^ McCaskill, Nolan D. (October 25, 2022). "Who will lead progressives after Bernie Sanders?". Los Angeles Times.
- ^ Yarrow, Grace (November 7, 2023). "Ted Cruz says he expects to run for president again, criticizes Democrats for pro-Palestine rhetoric". The Texas Tribune.
- ^ Stanton, Andrew (August 7, 2023). "Joe Rogan Makes 2028 Tucker Carlson Prediction". Newsweek.
- ^ MacKinnon, Douglas (June 16, 2023). "Is the Trump circus about to push DeSantis into 2028?". The Hill.
- ^ Sarlin, Benjy (April 12, 2023). "Don't assume this is Donald Trump's last run". Semafor.
- ^ Carney, Timothy P. (August 28, 2023). "If you're waiting for Trump to disappear, be ready to wait past 2028". Washington Examiner.
{{2028 United States presidential election}} {{2028 United States elections}}
