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2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. David McCormick
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic



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The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. is seeking a fourth term.[1] He is being challenged by Republican businessman David McCormick. Primary elections took place on April 23, 2024.[2]

Background

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Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in 2016.[3][4][5][6]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points and in 2018 by 13 percentage points.[7][8][9]

The race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Casey to be the slight favorite to win.[10]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Bob Casey Jr.
Executive officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D) $23,790,263 $12,391,802 $11,886,480
Source: Federal Election Commission[45]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[46]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 1,024,545 100.00%
Total votes 1,024,545 100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

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Nominee

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Withdrawn

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Disqualified

[edit]
  • Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate[49]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

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David McCormick
Executive Branch officials
Federal officials
State cabinet officials
U.S senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
Local officials
  • Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present)[67]
Party officials
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Dave McCormick (R) $11,052,879 $4,660,701 $6,399,998
Source: Federal Election Commission[45]

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kathy
Barnette 		Doug
Mastriano 		David
McCormick 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) March 9–10, 2023 616 (LV) – 11% 39% 21% 29%
– – 42% 28% 29%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David McCormick 878,320 100.00%
Total votes 878,320 100.00%

Third parties

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Constitution Party

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Nominee

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  • Bernard Selker, truck driver[77]

Green Party

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Nominee

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  • Leila Hazou, business owner[77]

American Solidarity Party

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Nominee

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Libertarian convention

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Nominee

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  • John Thomas, educator[79]

Eliminated at convention

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  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for president in 2020[80]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[81] Lean D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[82] Tilt D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] Lean D June 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[84] Lean D June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[85] Likely D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[86] Lean D November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[87] Tossup August 5, 2024

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey (D) $31,831,903 $23,893,851 $8,426,069
David McCormick (R) $18,063,787[b] $9,799,118 $8,272,490
Source: Federal Election Commission[45]

Polling

[edit]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		David
McCormick (R) 		Undecided
[c] 		Margin
RCP June 29 – July 28, 2024 August 6, 2024 49.0% 42.7% 8.3% Casey Jr. +6.3
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		David
McCormick (R) 		Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[A] July 31–August 3, 2024 743 (LV) ± 3.38% 45% 40% 2%[d] 12%
Susquehanna Polling
and Research (R) 		July 22–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[A] July 22–24, 2024 851 (LV) ± 3.08% 46% 39% 4%[e] 11%
Emerson College[B] July 22-23, 2024 850 (RV) ± 3.3% 48% 44% – 8%
SoCal Research[C] July 20-21, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[D] July 17-18, 2024 624 (RV) ± 3.8% 50% 39% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[A] July 16-18, 2024 688 (LV) – 44% 37% 3%[f] 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[E] July 11-12, 2024 537 (RV) – 47% 44% – 9%
YouGov[F] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 38% 1% 11%
889 (LV) – 51% 39% 1% 9%
The New York Times/
Siena College 		July 9–11, 2024 872 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% – 10%
872 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 42% – 8%
Remington Research Group (R)[G] June 29 – July 1, 2024 601 (LV) – 49% 48% – 3%
Cygnal (R) June 27–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 42% – 12%
The Bullfinch Group[H] June 14–19, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 36% – 16%
Emerson College[I] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% – 12%
Marist College June 3–6, 2024 1,181 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 46% – 2%
Mainstreet Research/
Florida Atlantic University 		May 30–31, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 40% 5% 7%
923 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 42% 3% 6%
KAConsulting (R)[J] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 47% 37% 4%[g] 12%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/
GS Strategy Group (D) 		May 6–13, 2024 730 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 41% – 10%
The New York Times/Siena College/
Philadelphia Inquirer 		April 28 – May 9, 2024 1,023 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 41% – 13%
1,023 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 44% – 10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[K] 		April 24–30, 2024 1,398 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Emerson College[L] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 42% – 12%
CBS News/YouGov April 19–25, 2024 1,306 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% – 15%
Muhlenberg College April 15–25, 2024 417 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 41% 5% 9%
The Bullfinch Group[M] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% 9% 8%
National Public Affairs March 2024 759 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 28% – 40%
Franklin & Marshall College March 20–31, 2024 431 (RV) ± 5.7% 46% 39% – 15%
The Bullfinch Group[N] March 22–26, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 30% 8% 15%
Emerson College March 10–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –
Susquehanna Polling
& Research 		February 27 – March 7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 42% – 10%
Emerson College February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% – 13%
Chism Strategies February 6–8, 2024 500 (RV) ± 5.0% 38% 37% – 25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[O] January 22–25, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 40% – 12%
Franklin & Marshall College January 17–28, 2023 1,006 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 35% 4% 14%
Susquehanna Polling
& Research (R) 		January 15–21, 2024 745 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% 3% 9%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 2024 1,680 (RV) ± 2.4% 53% 43% 1%[h] 2%
Common Ground (R)[P] December 8–12, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 27% 13%[i] 20%
Change Research (D)[Q] December 3–7, 2023 2,532 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 0% 15%
Franklin & Marshall College October 11–22, 2023 873 (RV) ± 4.1% 46% 39% 4% 12%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 430 (RV) ± 4.7% 41% 33% 8% 18%
Quinnipiac University September 28 – October 2, 2023 1,725 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 44% 2%[j] 4%
Susquehanna Polling
& Research (R) 		May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 1% 5%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 0% 13%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% – 23%
Hypothetical polling
Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Doug
Mastriano (R) 		Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 31% 22%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent)
Republican David McCormick
Libertarian John Thomas
Green Leila Hazou
Constitution Bernard Selker
American Solidarity Erik Messina
Total votes

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ $4,063,800 of this total was self-funded by McCormick
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  5. ^ John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  6. ^ Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
  7. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  8. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  9. ^ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  10. ^ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  6. ^ Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation.
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
  10. ^ Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  11. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by Independent Center
  14. ^ Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
  15. ^ Poll commissioned for David McCormick
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

References

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  1. ^ "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. April 10, 2023.
  2. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  3. ^ "Pennsylvania 2020 presidential election results". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  4. ^ "Pennsylvania Governor Midterm Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  5. ^ Narea, Nicole (February 8, 2023). "Democrats in Pennsylvania just won the 2022 midterms. Again". Vox. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. ^ "United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  7. ^ A 501tax-exempt; Street, charitable organization 1100 13th; NW; Washington, Suite 800; Dc 20005857-0044. "Pennsylvania Senate 2006 Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved March 19, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  8. ^ "Pennsylvania". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  9. ^ "Pennsylvania Senate Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis". www.politico.com. November 7, 2018. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  10. ^ Hudson, Lee (April 10, 2023). "Bob Casey running for Senate reelection". Politico. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  11. ^ Wright, David (April 10, 2023). "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024". CNN. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  12. ^ The Associated Press (February 22, 2024). "Two more candidates file papers to run for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania". WTAE-TV. Retrieved February 23, 2024.
  13. ^ Cole, John (March 6, 2024). "Pennsylvania GOP U.S. Senate candidate McCormick endorses Trump for president". Pennsylvania-Capital Star. Retrieved March 7, 2024. Casey will be the only Democrat on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate after a successful objection against William Parker's nomination petitions removed him from the ballot.
  14. ^ a b c d Lyons, Kim (July 26, 2023). "Casey campaign gets a boost from Pennsylvania veterans' coalition". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  15. ^ a b c Kail, Benjamin (April 30, 2023). "Sen. Bob Casey is starting his 2024 Senate campaign with a big head start". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  16. ^ "Mark Kelly isn't on the 2024 ballot. He's traveling the country for Dems anyway". Politico. January 30, 2024.
  17. ^ Staff, A. O. L. (May 17, 2024). "Whitmer's Fight Like Hell PAC releases initial Senate endorsements". www.aol.com. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  18. ^ Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024). "Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks". Maryland Matters. Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
  19. ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Bob Casey Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  20. ^ Prose, J. D. (December 16, 2023). "Pa. Democrats make 2024 endorsements, but attorney general's race remains open". The Patriot-News. Retrieved December 16, 2023.
  21. ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  22. ^ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
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  24. ^ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Bob Casey for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". June 26, 2023. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  25. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  26. ^ "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to the US Senate". Giffords. November 14, 2023. Retrieved October 15, 2023.
  27. ^ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  28. ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  29. ^ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  30. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  31. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  32. ^ "National Social Security Advocacy Group Endorses Senator Bob Casey for Re-Election". National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (Press release). April 12, 2024. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
  33. ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  34. ^ "Meet Our 2024 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  35. ^ "PSEA recommends U.S. Sen. Bob Casey for reelection". Pennsylvania State Education Association. January 18, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  36. ^ "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign". People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
  37. ^ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left.
  38. ^ Kauffman, William (March 14, 2024). "PRESS RELEASE: AFSCME Council 13 members unanimously endorse Senator Bob Casey". Council 13 AFSCME. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  39. ^ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved April 29, 2024.
  40. ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  41. ^ Lyons, Kim. "Casey picks up PA AFL-CIO endorsement". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  42. ^ "United Mine Workers endorses Casey for re-election in Pennsylvania". UMWA. Archived from the original on September 30, 2023. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  43. ^ "USW Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to U.S. Senate". United Steelworkers. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  44. ^ Staff, P. G. N. (April 10, 2024). "PGN Editorial Endorsements: Primary 2024". Philadelphia Gay News. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
  45. ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Pennsylvania". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  46. ^ "Pennsylvania Elections". Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved May 4, 2024.
  47. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (September 21, 2023). "Republican Dave McCormick launches bid for vulnerable Senate seat in battleground state". Fox News. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  48. ^ Cole, John (March 8, 2024). "Three candidates for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat remain on ballot following petition challenges". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
  49. ^ Cole, John (March 11, 2024). "Casey vs McCormick general election matchup appears set after petition challenges". Pennsylvania-Capital Star. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  50. ^ Lippman, Daniel; Otterbein, Holly (March 15, 2023). "MAGA favorite Kathy Barnette says she won't run again for Senate". POLITICO. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
  51. ^ "A well-liked incumbent stands in the way of Republicans retaking the Pennsylvania Senate seat". May 25, 2023.
  52. ^ Cruz, Abby; McDuffie, Will (September 15, 2023). "Republican who narrowly lost to Dr. Oz expected to run again for Senate". ABC News. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
  53. ^ Weaver, Al (May 25, 2023). "Doug Mastriano decides against launching Senate bid". The Hill.
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  57. ^ "Ambassador John Bolton Endorses Dave McCormick for Senate in Pennsylvania". John Bolton PAC. April 3, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
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  62. ^ Newhouse, Savannah (September 27, 2023). "Senator Marsha Blackburn Endorses Dave McCormick for Senate". LegiStorm. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  63. ^ Mutnick, Ally (September 21, 2023). "This GOP hopeful got on Trump's bad side last year. Now he might decide control of the Senate". Politico. Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  64. ^ Tamari, Jonathan (May 24, 2023). "McCormick's Second Senate Try Hinges on Fitting a Changed GOP". Bloomberg Government. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  65. ^ Eberwein, Richard (March 7, 2024). "David McCormick's campaign won't say if he would support Duckworth's bill to protect IVF". Heartland Signal. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  66. ^ White, Jaxon (September 21, 2023). "State Sen. Ryan Aument would endorse Dave McCormick's U.S. Senate run". LNP Lancaster Online. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  67. ^ Levy, Marc (December 8, 2022). "Trump blowback could carry less bite in 2024 for some in GOP". Associated Press. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
  68. ^ Seidel, Emily (July 19, 2023). "Americans for Prosperity Action Announces First Wave of Endorsements in 2024 U.S. Senate Races". AFP Action. Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  69. ^ a b "CPAC Endorses David McCormick for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania". CPAC.
  70. ^ "2024 ENDORSED CANDIDATES". Log Cabin Republicans. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  71. ^ Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans (@PACRFederation) (October 1, 2023). "PAFCR Endorses @DaveMcCormickPA in Crucial Race for United States Senate". Twitter. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  72. ^ Penn State College Republicans (@PennStateGOP) (October 1, 2023). "Penn State College Republicans Endorse Dave McCormick for United States Senate". Twitter. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  73. ^ "RJC Endorses Pennsylvania US Senate Candidate Dave McCormick". Republican Jewish Coalition. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  74. ^ Mastrull, Diane (September 30, 2023). "David McCormick secures Pa. GOP endorsement in his Senate run". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
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  80. ^ "Nominations for Statewide Offices". Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. March 2, 2024. Retrieved April 14, 2024.
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  86. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
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[edit]
Official campaign websites
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