Jump to content

Demographics of Scotland

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Tulietto (talk | contribs) at 17:03, 20 September 2018 (→Current natural increase). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Map of population density in Scotland at the 2011 census
Historical population
YearPop.±%
18011,608,420—    
18111,805,864+12.3%
18212,091,521+15.8%
18312,364,386+13.0%
18412,620,841+10.8%
18512,888,742+10.2%
18613,062,294+6.0%
18713,360,018+9.7%
18813,735,573+11.2%
18914,033,103+8.0%
19014,472,103+10.9%
19114,760,904+6.5%
19214,888,407+2.7%
19314,842,989−0.9%
19515,095,969+5.2%
19615,179,000+1.6%
19715,229,000+1.0%
19815,035,000−3.7%
19915,083,000+1.0%
20015,062,011−0.4%
20115,295,403+4.6%
20175,424,800+2.4%
Source: [1] [2]

The demography of Scotland includes all aspects of population, past and present, in the area that is now Scotland. Scotland has a population of 5,295,000 (first results of 2011 UK Census).[3] The population growth rate in 2011 was estimated as 0.6% per annum according to the 2011 GROS Annual Review.[4]

Covering an area of 78,782 square kilometres (30,418 sq mi), Scotland has a population density of 67.2/km2 (174/sq mi). Around 70% of the country's population live in the Central Lowlands—a region stretching in a northeast-southwest orientation between the major cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow, and including the major settlements of Paisley, Stirling, Falkirk, Perth and Dundee. Other concentrations of population include the northeast coast of Scotland, principally the regions around the cities of Aberdeen and Inverness, and the west coast around the town of Ayr. The Highlands of Scotland and the island group of Eilean Siar have the lowest population densities at 9/km2 (23/sq mi). Glasgow has the highest population density at 3,289/km2 (8,520/sq mi).[5]

Until April 2011, responsibility for estimating the population of Scotland, as well as recording births, deaths and marriages, was overseen by the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS), headed by the Registrar-General for Scotland. From 1 April 2011 onwards, the GROS merged with the National Archives of Scotland to become the National Records of Scotland. The new organisation is still required under the terms of the Registration of Births, Deaths and Marriages (Scotland) Act 1965, to present a Registrar-General's annual report of demographic trends to Scottish Ministers. (Prior to devolution it was to the Secretary of State for Scotland). In conjunction with the rest of the United Kingdom, the National Records for Scotland is also responsible for conducting a decadal census of population. The most recent one took place in March 2011, with the next due to take place in 2021.[6]

Historical population

Evolution of the population of Scotland 1954-2014. Data from National Records of Scotland 2014.

Population totals for Scotland 1600–2011

In the United Kingdom, a census was taken every ten years from 1801 onwards; with the exception of 1941 due to the Second World War. Population data for years prior to that is provided from directories and gazetteers[7][8][9]

Year Population
1500 500,000
1600 800,000
1707 1,000,000
1755 1,265,380
1801 1,608,420
1811 1,805,864
1821 2,091,521
1831 2,364,386
1841 2,620,184
1851 2,888,742
1861 3,062,294
1871 3,360,018
1881 3,735,578
1891 4,025,647
1901 4,472,103
1911 4,760,904
1921 4,882,407
1931 4,842,989
1939a 5,006,700
1951 5,095,969
1961b 5,179,000
1971 5,229,000
1981 5,035,000
1991c 5,083,000
2001 5,062,000
2011 5,295,000

Notes

a. There was no census in 1941 however there was a National Registrar of the Civilian Population in 1939

b. Data for 1961 onwards rounded to nearest thousand

c. Data for 1991 mid-year estimate

Birth and mortality

Table of birth and mortality since 1900

Average population (x 1000) Live births Deaths Natural change Crude birth rate (per 1000) Crude death rate (per 1000) Natural change (per 1000) Fertility rate
1900 4 437 131 401 82 296 49 105 29.6 18.5 11.1
1901 4 479 132 192 80 107 52 085 29.5 17.9 11.6
1902 4 507 132 267 77 941 54 326 29.4 17.3 12.0
1903 4 536 133 525 76 002 57 523 29.4 16.8 12.7
1904 4 564 132 603 77 981 54 622 29.1 17.1 12.0
1905 4 593 131 410 74 536 56 874 28.6 16.2 12.4
1906 4 621 132 005 75 635 56 370 28.6 16.4 12.2
1907 4 650 128 840 77 296 51 544 27.7 16.6 11.1
1908 4 680 131 362 77 838 53 524 28.1 16.6 11.4
1909 4 709 128 669 74 632 54 037 27.3 15.8 11.5
1910 4 739 124 059 72 268 51 791 26.2 15.2 11.0
1911 4 751 121 850 71 732 50 118 25.7 15.1 10.6
1912 4 741 122 790 72 340 50 450 25.9 15.3 10.6
1913 4 728 120 516 73 069 47 447 25.5 15.5 10.0
1914 4 747 123 934 73 557 50 377 26.1 15.5 10.6
1915 4 771 114 181 81 631 32 550 23.9 17.1 6.8
1916 4 795 109 942 70 640 39 302 22.9 14.7 8.2
1917 4 810 97 441 69 483 27 958 20.2 14.4 5.8
1918 4 812 98 554 78 372 20 182 20.5 16.3 4.2
1919 4 820 106 268 75 149 31 119 22.1 15.6 6.5
1920 4 864 136 546 68 179 68 367 28.1 14.0 14.1
1921 4 882 123 201 66 210 56 991 25.2 13.6 11.7
1922 4 898 115 085 72 905 42 180 23.5 14.9 8.6
1923 4 888 111 902 63 283 48 619 22.9 13.0 9.9
1924 4 862 106 900 70 357 36 543 22.0 14.5 7.5
1925 4 867 104 137 65 507 38 630 21.4 13.5 7.9
1926 4 864 102 449 63 780 38 669 21.1 13.1 7.9
1927 4 853 96 672 65 830 30 842 19.9 13.6 6.4
1928 4 848 96 822 65 271 31 551 20.0 13.5 6.5
1929 4 832 92 880 70 917 21 963 19.2 14.7 4.6
1930 4 828 94 549 64 285 30 264 19.6 13.3 6.3
1931 4 843 92 220 64 229 27 991 19.0 13.3 5.8
1932 4 883 91 000 66 045 24 955 18.6 13.5 5.1
1933 4 912 86 546 64 848 21 698 17.6 13.2 4.4
1934 4 934 88 836 63 741 25 095 18.0 12.9 5.1
1935 4 953 87 928 65 331 22 597 17.8 13.2 4.6
1936 4 966 88 928 66 749 22 179 17.9 13.4 4.5
1937 4 977 87 810 68 942 18 868 17.6 13.9 3.8
1938 4 993 88 627 62 953 25 674 17.8 12.6 5.1
1939 5 007 86 913 64 413 22 500 17.4 12.9 4.5
1940 5 065 86 392 72 775 13 617 17.1 14.9 2.2
1941 5 160 89 748 72 558 17 190 17.4 14.6 2.8
1942 5 174 90 703 64 963 25 740 17.5 13.2 4.3
1943 5 189 94 669 66 733 27 936 18.2 13.9 4.4
1944 5 210 95 920 64 603 31 317 18.4 13.5 4.9
1945 5 187 86 924 62 655 24 269 16.8 13.1 3.7
1946 5 167 104 413 64 605 39 808 20.2 13.0 7.2
1947 5 120 113 147 66 200 46 947 22.1 12.9 9.2
1948 5 150 100 344 60 979 39 365 19.5 11.8 7.6
1949 5 156 95 674 63 488 32 186 18.6 12.3 6.2
1950 5 168 92 530 63 996 28 534 17.9 12.4 5.5
1951 5 102 90 639 65 778 24 861 17.8 12.9 4.9
1952 5 101 90 422 61 510 28 912 17.7 12.1 5.7
1953 5 100 90 913 58 878 32 035 17.8 11.5 6.3
1954 5 104 92 315 61 380 30 935 18.1 12.0 6.1
1955 5 111 92 539 61 645 30 894 18.1 12.1 6.0
1956 5 120 95 313 61 792 33 521 18.6 12.1 6.5
1957 5 125 97 977 61 143 36 834 19.1 11.9 7.2
1958 5 141 99 481 62 065 37 416 19.4 12.1 7.3
1959 5 163 99 251 63 061 36 190 19.2 12.2 7.0
1960 5 178 101 292 61 764 39 528 19.6 11.9 7.6
1961 5 184 101 169 63 928 37 241 19.5 12.3 7.2
1962 5 198 104 334 63 189 41 145 20.1 12.2 7.9
1963 5 205 102 691 65 521 37 170 19.7 12.6 7.1
1964 5 209 104 355 61 039 43 316 20.0 11.7 8.3
1965 5 210 100 660 62 868 37 792 19.3 12.1 7.3
1966 5 201 96 536 63 689 32 847 18.6 12.2 6.3
1967 5 198 96 221 59 523 36 698 18.5 11.5 7.1
1968 5 200 94 786 63 311 31 475 18.2 12.2 6.1
1969 5 209 90 290 63 821 26 469 17.3 12.3 5.1
1970 5 215 87 335 63 640 23 695 16.7 12.2 4.5
1971 5 219 86 728 61 614 25 114 16.6 11.8 4.8 2.53
1972 5 223 78 550 65 017 13 533 15.0 12.4 2.6 2.27
1973 5 225 74 392 64 545 9 847 14.2 12.4 1.9 2.13
1974 5 226 70 093 64 740 5 353 13.4 12.4 1.0 1.97
1975 5 227 67 943 63 125 4 818 13.0 12.1 0.9 1.90
1976 5 227 64 895 65 253 - 358 12.4 12.5 -0.1 1.80
1977 5 226 62 342 62 294 48 11.9 11.9 0.0 1.70
1978 5 212 64 295 65 123 - 828 12.3 12.5 -0.2 1.74
1979 5 204 68 366 65 747 2 619 13.1 12.6 0.5 1.84
1980 5 194 68 892 63 299 5 593 13.3 12.2 1.1 1.84
1981 5 180 69 054 63 828 5 226 13.3 12.3 1.0 1.84
1982 5 165 66 196 65 022 1 174 12.8 12.6 0.2 1.74
1983 5 148 65 078 63 454 1 624 12.6 12.3 0.3 1.70
1984 5 139 65 106 62 345 2 761 12.7 12.1 0.5 1.68
1985 5 128 66 676 63 967 2 709 13.0 12.5 0.5 1.70
1986 5 112 65 812 63 467 2 345 12.9 12.4 0.5 1.68
1987 5 099 66 241 62 014 4 227 13.0 12.2 0.8 1.68
1988 5 077 66 212 61 957 4 255 13.0 12.2 0.8 1.68
1989 5 078 63 480 65 017 -1 537 12.5 12.8 -0.3 1.61
1990 5 081 65 973 61 527 4 446 13.0 12.1 0.9 1.67
1991 5 083 67 024 61 041 5 983 13.2 12.0 1.2 1.69
1992 5 086 65 789 60 937 4 852 12.9 12.0 1.0 1.67
1993 5 092 63 337 64 049 - 712 12.4 12.6 -0.1 1.62
1994 5 102 61 656 59 328 2 328 12.1 11.6 0.5 1.58
1995 5 104 60 051 60 500 - 449 11.8 11.9 -0.1 1.55
1996 5 092 59 296 60 654 -1 358 11.6 11.9 -0.3 1.56
1997 5 083 59 440 59 494 - 54 11.7 11.7 -0.0 1.58
1998 5 077 57 319 59 164 -1 845 11.3 11.7 -0.4 1.55
1999 5 072 55 147 60 281 -5 134 10.9 11.9 -1.0 1.51
2000 5 063 53 076 57 799 -4 723 10.5 11.4 -0.9 1.48
2001 5 064 52 527 57 380 -4 853 10.4 11.3 -1.0 1.49
2002 5 055 51 270 58 103 -6 833 10.1 11.5 -1.4 1.47
2003 5 057 52 432 58 472 -6 040 10.4 11.6 -1.2 1.52
2004 5 078 53 957 56 187 -2 230 10.6 11.1 -0.4 1.58
2005 5 095 54 386 55 747 -1 361 10.7 10.9 -0.3 1.60
2006 5 117 55 690 55 093 597 10.9 10.8 0.1 1.64
2007 5 144 57 781 55 986 1 795 11.2 10.9 0.3 1.70
2008 5 169 60 041 55 700 4 341 11.6 10.8 0.8 1.77
2009 5 194 59 046 53 856 5 190 11.4 10.4 1.0 1.73
2010 5 222 58 791 53 967 4 824 11.3 10.3 1.0 1.72
2011 5 255 58 592 53 661 4 931 11.1 10.3 0.8 1.69
2012 5 313 58 027 54 937 3 090 10.9 10.5 0.4 1.67
2013 5 327 56 014 54 700 1 314 10.6 10.3 0.3 1.61
2014 5 347 56 725 54 239 2 486 10.6 10.2 0.4 1.62
2015 5 373 55 096 57 566 - 2 470 10.3 10.7 -0.4 1.56
2016 5 404 54 488 56 728 - 2 240 10.1 10.5 -0.4 1.52
2017 5 424 52 872 57 883 - 5 011 9.8 10.7 -0.9 1.47

Current natural increase

[10] [11]

  • Births for January-August 2017 = Decrease 35,750
  • Births for January-August 2018 = Decrease 34,672
  • Deaths for January-August 2017 = Negative increase 38,444
  • Deaths for January-August 2018 = Negative increase 40,026
  • Natural increase for January-August 2017 = Decrease -2,694
  • Natural increase for January-August 2018 = Decrease -5,354

Place of birth

Map showing the percentage of the population born in England according to the 2011 census.

Places of birth given by respondents to the 2001 and 2011 censuses were as follows:

Country of birth 2001[12] 2011[13]
Number % Number %
 Scotland 4,410,400 87.13% 4,411,884 83.32%
 England 408,948 8.08% 459,486 8.68%
 Wales 16,623 0.33% 17,381 0.33%
Northern Ireland 33,528 0.66% 36,655 0.69%
 United Kingdom UK part not specified 941 0.02%
 Ireland 21,774 0.43% 22,952 0.43%
 EU Other Member Countries 41,836 0.83% 137,285 2.59%
 EU Other Member Countries (joined pre 2001) 59,031 1.11%
 EU Other Member Countries (joined post 2001) 78,254 1.48%
 UN Other Countries 127,926 2.53% 209,760 3.96%
Total 5,062,011 100.00% 5,295,403 100.00%

Below are the 5 largest foreign-born groups in Scotland according to 2014 ONS estimates.[14]

Country of birth Estimated population, 2013 Estimated population, 2014 Estimated population, 2015
 Poland 71,000 74,000 76,000
 India 27,000 18,000 26,000
 Germany 20,000 19,000 19,000
 Pakistan 20,000 18,000 18,000
 Republic of Ireland 17,000 17,000 20,000

Age

The age distribution based on the 2011 census was as follows.[15]

Population pyramid for Scotland as at the 2011 census.
Ages attained
(years) 		Population % of total
0–4 293,000 5.53
5–9 270,000 5.10
10–14 292,000 5.51
15–19 331,000 6.25
20–24 364,000 6.87
25–29 346,000 6.53
30–34 322,000 6.08
35–39 340,000 6.42
40–44 394,000 7.44
45–49 411,000 7.76
50–54 376,000 7.10
55–59 331,000 6.25
60–64 337,000 6.35
65–69 262,000 4.98
70–74 221,000 4.17
75–79 178,000 3.36
80–84 123,000 2.32
85–89 71,000 1.34
90+ 37,000 0.70

Ethnicity

The 2001 and 2011 censuses recorded the following ethnic groups:

Ethnic Group 2001[16] 2011[17]
Number % Number %
White: Scottish 4,459,071 88.09% 4,445,678 83.95%
White: Other British 373,685 7.38% 417,109 7.88%
White: Irish 49,428 0.98% 54,090 1.02%
White: Gypsy/Traveller[note 1] 4,212 0.08%
White: Polish[note 2] 61,201 1.16%
White: Other 78,150 1.54% 102,117 1.93%
White: Total 4,960,334 97.99% 5,084,407

96.02%

Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Indian 15,037 0.30% 32,706 0.62%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Pakistani 31,793 0.63% 49,381 0.93%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Bangladeshi 1,981 0.04% 3,788 0.07%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Chinese 16,310 0.32% 33,706 0.64%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Asian Other 6,196 0.12% 21,097 0.40%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Total 71,317 1.41% 140,678 2.66%
Black, Black Scottish or Black British[note 3] 6,247 0.12%
African: African, African Scottish or African British 29,186 0.55%
African: Other African 452 0.01%
African: Total 29,638

0.56%

Caribbean 3,430 0.06%
Black 2,380 0.04%
Caribbean or Black: Other 730 0.01%
Caribbean or Black: Total 6,540 0.12%
Mixed or multiple ethnic groups: Total 12,764 0.25% 19,815

0.37%

Other: Arab[note 4] 9,366 0.18%
Other: Any other ethnic group 9,571 0.19% 4,959 0.09%
Other: Total 9,571 0.19% 14,325

0.27%

Total 5,062,011 100.00% 5,295,403

100.00%

  1. ^ New category created for the 2011 census
  2. ^ New category created for the 2011 census
  3. ^ Category restructured for the 2011 census
  4. ^ New category created for the 2011 census

National identity

Map showing the percentage of the population that identifies itself as "Scottish" only according to the 2011 census.
Map showing the percentage of the population that identifies itself as "Scottish and British" and "British" only according to the 2011 census.

A question on national identity was asked in the 2011 census: "what do you feel is your national identity?". Respondents could identify themselves as having more than one national identity.

In the 2011 census:[18]

  • 62% identified themselves as 'Scottish only'
  • 18% identified themselves as 'Scottish' and 'British'
  • 8% identified themselves as 'British only'
  • 2% identified themselves as 'Scottish' together with some other identity.
  • the remainder chose other national identities.

The council areas with at least 90% of the population stating some 'Scottish' national identity were North Lanarkshire, Inverclyde, East Ayrshire and West Dunbartonshire. The lowest proportions of people stating some 'Scottish' national identity were in Edinburgh (70%) and Aberdeen (75%).[19]

The council areas with the highest proportions of people stating 'British' as their only national identity were Argyll and Bute and Shetland, each with 12%.[19]

Below is a table of national identity sorted by council area based on the results of the 2011 census:

Council area Scottish only Scottish and British only British only Other UK identities Scottish and any other identities Other only
Aberdeen 54.7% 17.7% 8.3% 4.7% 2.5% 12.1%
Aberdeenshire 61.3% 17.7% 9.0% 6.7% 1.9% 3.6%
Angus 66.8% 17.8% 7.2% 4.4% 1.6% 2.2%
Argyll and Bute 57.4% 17.2% 11.6% 8.9% 2.4% 2.4%
Clackmannanshire 67.0% 17.6% 7.4% 4.3% 1.6% 2.1%
Dumfries and Galloway 59.6% 16.7% 10.1% 9.7% 2.0% 1.8%
Dundee 65.5% 16.6% 6.5% 3.6% 1.8% 6.1%
East Ayrshire 70.6% 18.7% 5.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.9%
East Dunbartonshire 60.2% 24.7% 8.7% 2.7% 1.9% 1.8%
East Lothian 62.6% 18.9% 8.6% 4.6% 2.0% 3.0%
East Renfrewshire 59.0% 25.6% 9.4% 2.4% 1.9% 1.8%
Edinburgh 48.8% 18.5% 11.4% 6.7% 3.2% 11.4%
Eilean Siar 69.2% 14.3% 8.1% 5.4% 1.5% 1.4%
Falkirk 68.0% 19.7% 6.3% 2.7% 1.3% 2.0%
Fife 63.8% 18.2% 7.9% 5.1% 1.8% 3.2%
Glasgow 61.9% 16.1% 8.6% 2.9% 2.2% 8.3%
Highland 61.5% 15.2% 10.2% 7.6% 2.3% 3.3%
Inverclyde 69.9% 19.7% 6.3% 1.9% 1.1% 1.1%
Midlothian 68.3% 18.2% 6.8% 3.2% 1.5% 2.0%
Moray 58.4% 15.9% 10.9% 10.0% 2.1% 2.7%
North Ayrshire 68.2% 19.4% 6.8% 3.2% 1.3% 1.1%
North Lanarkshire 71.6% 18.1% 5.9% 1.5% 1.2% 1.7%
Orkney 62.4% 13.8% 10.8% 9.8% 1.6% 1.6%
Perth and Kinross 59.0% 18.9% 9.5% 6.0% 2.3% 4.3%
Renfrewshire 65.9% 21.0% 7.3% 2.0% 1.3% 2.6%
Scottish Borders 57.7% 16.9% 10.7% 9.2% 2.6% 2.9%
Shetland 59.9% 15.7% 11.6% 7.6% 1.8% 3.4%
South Ayrshire 63.9% 21.0% 7.6% 4.3% 1.6% 1.6%
South Lanarkshire 67.2% 20.5% 6.9% 2.3% 1.3% 1.8%
Stirling 57.5% 20.0% 9.6% 5.8% 2.5% 4.6%
West Dunbartonshire 72.0% 17.3% 6.0% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5%
West Lothian 65.2% 18.8% 7.6% 3.4% 1.6% 3.4%

Religion

Main article: Religion in Scotland
Percentage claiming to be Roman Catholic in the 2011 census in Scotland

The statistics from the 2011 census and the 2001 census are set out below.

Current religion 2001[20] 2011[21]
Number % Number %
Church of Scotland 2,146,251 42.4 1,717,871 32.4
Roman Catholic 803,732 15.9 841,053 15.9
Other Christian 344,562 6.8 291,275 5.5
Total Christian 3,294,545 65.1 2,850,199 53.8
Islam 42,557 0.8 76,737 1.4
Hinduism 5,564 0.1 16,379 0.3
Buddhism 6,830 0.1 12,795 0.2
Sikhism 6,572 0.1 9,055 0.2
Judaism 6,448 0.1 5,887 0.1
Other religion 26,974 0.5 15,196 0.3
No religion 1,394,460 27.6 1,941,116 36.7
Religion not stated 278,061 5.5 368,039 7.0
No religion/Not stated total 1,672,521 33.0 2,309,155 43.6
Total population 5,062,011 100.0 5,295,403 100.0

Languages

English is by far the most commonly spoken language in Scotland. Two regional languages of Scotland, Scottish Gaelic and Scots, are protected under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. Abilities in these languages for those aged three and above were recorded in the UK census 2011 as follows.[22]

Ability Scottish Gaelic Scots
Usual residents aged 3+ Proportion Usual residents aged 3+ Proportion
Understands but does not speak, read or write 23,357 0.46% 267,412 5.22%
Speaks, reads and writes 32,191 0.63% 1,225,622 23.95%
Speaks but does not read or write 18,966 0.37% 179,295 3.50%
Speaks and reads but does not write 6,218 0.12% 132,709 2.59%
Reads but does not speak or write 4,646 0.09% 107,025 2.09%
Other combination of skills 1,678 0.03% 17,381 0.34%
No skills 5,031,167 98.30% 3,188,779 62.30%
Total 5,118,223 100.00% 5,118,223 100.00%
Can speak 57,602 1.13% 1,541,693 30.12%
Has some ability 87,056 1.70% 1,929,444 37.70%
Distribution of those who stated they could speak a regional language in the 2011 census.
  • Scottish Gaelic
    Scottish Gaelic
  • Scots
    Scots

Several other languages are spoken amongst immigrants to Scotland. The most commonly spoken of these is Polish. In the 2011 census 54,186 respondents aged three and over said that Polish was their main language, amounting to 1.06% of the total population of Scotland aged three and over.

Historical demography

Main article: Historical demography of Scotland
Stone houses at Knap of Howar, evidence of a settled agricultural population and the beginnings of demographic growth, c. 3500 BC

At times during the last interglacial period (130,000–70,000 BC) Europe had a climate warmer than today's, and early humans may have made their way to what is now Scotland, though archaeologists have found no traces of this. Glaciers then scoured their way across most of Britain, and only after the ice retreated did Scotland again become habitable, around 9600 BC.[23] Mesolithic hunter-gatherer encampments formed the first known settlements, and archaeologists have dated a site near Biggar to around 8500 BC.[24] Numerous other sites found around Scotland build up a picture of highly mobile boat-using people making tools from bone, stone and antlers, probably with a very low density of population.[25] Neolithic farming brought permanent settlements, such as the stone house at Knap of Howar on Papa Westray dating from 3500 BC, and greater concentrations of population. Extensive analyses of Black Loch in Fife indicate that arable land spread at the expense of forest from about 2000 BC until the period of the first century AD Roman advance into lowland Scotland, suggesting an expanding settled population. Thereafter, there was re-growth of birch, oak and hazel for a period of five centuries, suggesting that the Roman invasions had a negative impact on the native population.[26]

There are almost no written sources from which to re-construct the demography of early medieval Scotland. Estimates have been made of a population of 10,000 inhabitants in Dál Riata and 80-100,000 for Pictland, which was probably the largest region.[27] This does not include figures for parts of Northumbria now in Scotland. It is likely that the 5th and 6th centuries saw higher mortality rates due to the appearance of bubonic plague, which may have reduced net population.[28] The examination of burial sites for this period like that at Hallowhill, St Andrews indicate a life expectancy of only 26–29.[27] The known conditions have been taken to suggest it was a high fertility, high mortality society, similar to many developing countries in the modern world, with a relatively young demographic profile, and perhaps early childbearing, and large numbers of children for women. This would have meant that there were a relatively small proportion of available workers to the number of mouths to feed. This would have made it difficult to produce a surplus that would allow demographic growth and more complex societies to develop.[29] From the formation of the kingdom of Alba in the tenth century, to before the Black Death reached the country in 1349, estimates based on the amount of farmable land, suggest that population may have grown from half a million to a million.[30] Although there is no reliable documentation on the impact of the plague, there are many anecdotal references to abandoned land in the following decades. If the pattern followed that in England, then the population may have fallen to as low as half a million by the end of the 15th century.[31] Compared with the situation after the redistribution of population in the later clearances and the industrial revolution, these numbers would have been relatively evenly spread over the kingdom, with roughly half living north of the Tay.[32] Perhaps ten per cent of the population lived in one of many burghs that grew up in the later medieval period, mainly in the east and south. It has been suggested that they would have had a mean population of about 2,000, but many would be much smaller than 1,000 and the largest, Edinburgh, probably had a population of over 10,000 by the end of the era.[33]

Graph showing the population of Scotland 1900-2001. Source: General Register Office for Scotland Birth and Mortality statistics from 1900

Calculations based on Hearth Tax returns for 1691 indicate a population of 1,234,575, but this figure may have been seriously affected by the famines of the 1690s. The first reliable information is a census conducted by the Reverend Alexander Webster in 1755, which shows the inhabitants of Scotland as 1,265,380.[34] By the time of the first decadal census in 1801, the population was 1,608,420. Scotland grew steadily in the 19th century, to 2,889,000 in 1851 and 4,472,000 in 1901.[35] Even with the growth of industry there were insufficient good jobs, as a result, during the period 1841-1931, about 2 million Scots emigrated to North America and Australia, and another 750,000 Scots relocated to England.[36]

With a population of 4.8 million in 1911, Scotland sent 690,000 men to First World War, of whom 74,000 died in combat or from disease, and 150,000 were seriously wounded.[37][38] Thus, although Scots were only 10 percent of the British population, they made up 15 per cent of the national armed forces and eventually accounted for 20 per cent of the dead.[39] While emigration began to tail off in England and Wales after the First World War,[40] it continued apace in Scotland, with 400,000 Scots, ten per cent of the population, estimated to have left the country between 1921 and 1931.[41] When the Great Depression hit in the 1930s there were no easily available jobs in the US and Canada and emigration fell to less than 50,000 a year, bringing to an end the period of mass migrations that had opened in the mid-18th century.[42] This contributed to the growth of the population, which reached a peak of 5,240,800 in 1974. Thereafter it began to fall slowly, moving down to 5,062,940 in 2000. There was also a decrease in some urban populations as a result of policies of slum clearance, overspill and relocation to new towns, with the population of Glasgow falling from over a million in 1951 to 629,000 in 2001. Rural areas also saw a loss of population, particularly the Highlands and Hebrides.[43]

Population change

People on Buchanan Street in Glasgow. Scotland's population is getting older as many baby boomers approach retirement.

From the 1960s to early 1970s Scotland experienced a gradual increase in population; however, from 1974 there was a natural decrease in population, with both an excess of deaths over births and of emigration over immigration - particularly to the rest of the United Kingdom.[4]

Fertility and morbidity rates

Both the Scottish Government and leading academics in Scotland had expressed some concern over the historic falling annual number of births in Scotland. In 2002, according to the GROS, the number of live births in Scotland was the lowest ever recorded, at 51,270. In 2004, for example, there were 4,012 more deaths than births, although for the subsequent five years this process had been reversed with 4,342 more births than deaths in 2008. The long-term reversal in the declining birth rate of the 1990s was confirmed in 2009 when the Registrar General for Scotland reported that with 60,000 births recorded in 2008, this was the highest recorded fertility rate since 1995.[44]

The population of children under age 5 grew by 6% (293,000) over the ten-year period between 2001 and 2011. However, the number of children aged 5–14 fell by 11% (69,000). The population of people over 65 also grew by 11% (85,000) and they now represent 17% of the total population and for the first time there are more people over 65 than under 15 years of age. Significantly, in 2011 there were 230,000 people over 80 years of age.[45]

Migration

Politicians and academics also noted that in the first years of the 21st century the previous trend of a net migration away from Scotland had reversed with significant immigration to Scotland from the rest of the United Kingdom. Between 2001 and 2011 Scotland's population grew by 5% (233,000), the fastest rate of growth for at least 100 years.[45] Similarly, since 2004 there had also been a growing influx of arrivals from the new EU accession states such as Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Latvia, contributing to the recent growth of the population. Consequently, since 2002 the birth rate gradually increased with 53,957 births recorded in 2004, and in 2008 the number of live births was 60,041[46]

The Scottish Government has responded to these demographic trends by setting up the Fresh Talent - Working in Scotland Scheme open to foreign (non-EU) graduates from Scotland's universities allowing them a two-year residency period after graduation.[47]

Population projections

In its 2011 review the GROS predicted that Scotland's population would rise by 10% to 5.76 million by 2035 and to 6.2m by 2085. Until 2028 both net inward migration and the birth rate exceeding the death rate would contribute to this growth, however beyond this date population increase would be due only to a positive net migration as the aging population would result in more deaths than births. This later trend would be dramatic with the number of children under 16 projected to rise by only 3% while the number of people over 65 is projected to increase by 63% (from 0.88m to 1.43m).[4]

Council Area Population Estimates

Further information: Subdivisions of Scotland
Scotland Council Area Population Estimates
(2001 & 2011)[5][48]
Local Council Area Population
(2001)		 Population
(2011)		 % change
(2001–11)
Aberdeen City 212,125 222,800 5.0
Aberdeenshire 226,871 253,000 11.5
Angus 108,400 116,000 7.0
Argyll and Bute 91,306 88,200 −3.4
Clackmannanshire 48,077 51,400 7.0
Dumfries and Galloway 147,765 151,300 2.4
Dundee City 145,663 147,300 1.1
East Ayrshire 120,235 122,700 2.1
East Dunbartonshire 108,243 105,000 −3.0
East Lothian 90,088 99,700 10.7
East Renfrewshire 89,311 90,600 1.4
City of Edinburgh 448,624 476,600 6.2
Na h-Eileanan Siar 26,502 27,700 4.5
Falkirk 145,191 156,000 7.4
Fife 349,429 365,200 4.5
Glasgow City 577,869 593,200 2.7
Highland 208,914 232,100 11.1
Inverclyde 84,203 81,500 −3.2
Midlothian 80,941 83,200 2.8
Moray 86,940 93,300 7.3
North Ayrshire 135,817 138,200 1.7
North Lanarkshire 321,067 337,800 5.2
Orkney Islands 19,245 21,400 10.9
Perth and Kinross 134,949 146,700 8.7
Renfrewshire 172,867 174,900 1.2
Scottish Borders 106,764 113,900 6.7
Shetland Islands 21,988 23,200 5.3
South Ayrshire 112,097 112,800 0.6
South Lanarkshire 302,216 313,800 3.8
Stirling 86,212 90,200 4.7
West Dunbartonshire 93,378 90,700 −2.8
West Lothian 158,714 175,100 10.3

Other Miscellaneous statistics

Sex ratio:
at birth: 1.04 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.04 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 0.94 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.88 male(s)/female
total population: 0.94 male(s)/female (Mid-2011 est.)

Infant mortality rate: 4.1 deaths/1,000 live births (2011 est.)[49]

Life expectancy at birth (2011):[4]
total population: 78.4 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 72.2 in 1981)
male: 76.1 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 69.1 in 1981)
female: 80.6 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 75.3 in 1981)

General fertility rate:[4] The general Fertility Rate (GFR) is based on the rate of births per 1000 females of child-bearing age (i.e. 15–44 years of age).

In 2011 it was 56.4 births per 1000 women. For comparison, during the latter part of the 20th century it was at its highest during the 'baby boom' of the 1960s. The GFR reached a peak of 99.5 births per 1000 women in 1962. In 2001 the GFR had fallen to its lowest post World War II level of 50 births per 1000 women.

Languages: English, Scots (including Doric, Central and Border) and Gaelic

Marriages:[4] In 2011 there were 29,135 marriages in Scotland. This is a 2.3% increase on 2010.

By way of historical comparison, the highest ever recorded was 53,522 in 1940. In the 1970s there were on average between 40-45,000 marriages per annum. The lowest annual figure in recent years was 27,524 in 2009 and lowest on record was 19,655 in 1858.

Of specific interest were the number of so-called 'tourist marriages', where neither partner was resident in Scotland. In 2011 there were 6,829 such marriages, of which 48% took place at Gretna, the most popular of all wedding venues.

Civil Partnerships[4] The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force in December 2005. In 2006 the number of civil partnership registrations was 1,047. A one-off figure given the number of long-standing relationships which already existed which could be registered. Since then the number of ceremonies each year fell from 688 in 2007 to 465 registrations in 2010. 2011 saw the first increase since 2006 with 554 registrations.

Literacy:
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 99%
male: 99%
female: 99% (2005 est)

Higher education 95% of Scottish higher education students study in universities in Scotland.

See also

References

  1. ^ "Census day estimates 1911–2011". Scotland Census. Retrieved 20 February 2018.
  2. ^ "Census Records 1841 to 1911". National Records of Scotland. Retrieved 20 February 2018.
  3. ^ "2011 Census: First Results on Population Estimates for Scotland - Release 1A". National Records of Scotland. 17 December 2012. Archived from the original on 19 December 2012. Retrieved 20 December 2012. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  4. ^ a b c d e f g The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends 157th Edition 2011 Archived 2013-06-05 at the Wayback Machine, Accessed 10 February 2013
  5. ^ a b Scotland's Census 2011 Census Day usual resident 1 population estimates by council area , Accessed 9 February 2013
  6. ^ "National Records of Scotland", Scottish Government news release, retrieved 10 February 2013
  7. ^ Genuki UK and Ireland Genealogy, Accessed 11 February 2013
  8. ^ Webster's Scottish Population Statistics of 1751 edited, updated and reprinted by James Grey Kyd in 1951 Archived 2012-01-22 at the Wayback Machine, Accessed 11 February 2013
  9. ^ Census day estimates 1911–2011, Accessed 28 February 2013
  10. ^ "Births, Deaths and Other Vital Events - Quarterly Figures". National Records of Scotland. Retrieved 13 December 2017.
  11. ^ "Monthly Data on Births and Deaths Registered in Scotland". National Records of Scotland. Retrieved 20 September 2018.
  12. ^ 2001 Census for Scotland scrol analyser Archived 2014-09-24 at the Wayback Machine, Accessed 6 September 2014
  13. ^ 2011 Census for Scotland Standard Outputs, Accessed 5 September 2014
  14. ^ "Table 1.3: Overseas-born population in the United Kingdom, excluding some residents in communal establishments, by sex, by country of birth, January 2014 to December 2014". Office for National Statistics. 27 August 2015. Retrieved 17 April 2016. Figures given are the central estimates. See the source for 95 per cent confidence intervals.
  15. ^ 2011 Census for Scotland Age Distribution, Accessed 28 February 2013
  16. ^ "Analysis of Ethnicity in the 2001 Census - Summary Report". Retrieved 6 September 2014.
  17. ^ "Scotland's Census 2011 - Standard Outputs". Retrieved 6 September 2014.
  18. ^ "Census 2011: Detailed characteristics on Ethnicity, Identity, Language and Religion in Scotland – Release 3A". 27 February 2014. Retrieved 20 February 2016.
  19. ^ a b "Scotland's Census 2011 - Analysis: National Identity". Retrieved 22 September 2014.
  20. ^ "Analysis of Religion in the 2001 Census". The Scottish Government. 17 May 2006. Archived from the original on 6 June 2011. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  21. ^ "Scotland's Census 2011 – Table KS209SCb" (PDF). scotlandscensus.gov.uk. Retrieved 26 September 2013.
  22. ^ "Scotland's Census 2011 - Standard Outputs". Retrieved 7 September 2014.
  23. ^ F. Pryor, Britain B.C.: life in Britain and Ireland before the Romans (London: Harper Collins, 2003), p. 99.
  24. ^ "Signs of Earliest Scots Unearthed". BBC News. 2009-04-09. Retrieved 2009-07-15.
  25. ^ P. J. Ashmore, Neolithic and Bronze Age Scotland: An authoritative and Lively Account of an Enigmatic Period of Scottish Prehistory (2003).
  26. ^ T. C. Smout, R. MacDonald and F. Watson, A History of the Native Woodlands of Scotland 1500–1920. Edinburgh University Press ISBN 9780748632947, p. 34.
  27. ^ a b L. R. Laing, The Archaeology of Celtic Britain and Ireland, c. AD 400-1200 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006), ISBN 0521547407, pp. 21–22.
  28. ^ P. Fouracre and R. McKitterick, eds, The New Cambridge Medieval History: c. 500-c. 700 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005), ISBN 0521362911, p. 234.
  29. ^ A. Woolf, From Pictland to Alba: 789–1070 (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2007), ISBN 0748612343, pp. 17–20.
  30. ^ R. E. Tyson, "Population Patterns", in M. Lynch, ed., The Oxford Companion to Scottish History (New York, 2001), pp. 487–88.
  31. ^ S. H. Rigby, ed., A Companion to Britain in the Later Middle Ages (Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2003), ISBN 0631217851, pp. 109–11.
  32. ^ J. Wormald, Court, Kirk, and Community: Scotland, 1470-1625 (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 1991), ISBN 0748602763, p. 61.
  33. ^ E. Gemmill and N. J. Mayhew, Changing Values in Medieval Scotland: a Study of Prices, Money, and Weights and Measures (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), ISBN 0521473853, pp. 8-10.
  34. ^ K. J. Cullen, Famine in Scotland: The 'Ill Years' of The 1690s (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2010), ISBN 0748638873, pp. 123-24.
  35. ^ A. K. Cairncross, The Scottish Economy: A Statistical Account of Scottish Life by Members of the Staff of Glasgow University (Glasgow: Glasgow University Press, 1953), p. 10.
  36. ^ R. A. Houston and W. W. Knox, eds, The New Penguin History of Scotland (London: Penguin, 2001), ISBN 0140263675, p. xxxii.
  37. ^ I. F. W. Beckett and K. R. Simpson, eds. A Nation in Arms: a Social Study of the British Army in the First World War (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1985), ISBN 0719017378, p. 11.
  38. ^ R. A. Houston and W. W. Knox, eds, The New Penguin History of Scotland (London: Penguin, 2001), ISBN 0140263675, p. 426.
  39. ^ J. Buchanan, Scotland (Langenscheidt, 3rd edn., 2003), p. 49.
  40. ^ F. M. L. Thompson, The Cambridge Social History of Britain, 1750-1950: People and Their Environment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), ISBN 0521438136, pp. 9-10.
  41. ^ J. Buchanan, Scotland (Langenscheidt, 3rd edn., 2003), p. 51.
  42. ^ S. M. Millett, The Scottish Settlers of America: the 17th and 18th Centuries (Genealogical Publishing Com, 2009), p. 64.
  43. ^ C. G. Brown, "Charting everyday experience", in L. Abrams and C. G. Brown, A History of Everyday Life in Twentieth-Century Scotland (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2010), ISBN 0748624317, p. 20.
  44. ^ Press Release: Births Increase for the Sixth Consecutive Year Archived 2012-10-28 at the Wayback Machine, Accessed 9 February 2013
  45. ^ a b Press Release: First Results of Scotland's 2011 Census, Accessed 9 February 2013
  46. ^ Scotland's population swelled by largest immigration in 50 years "The Scotsman" 28 April 2005
  47. ^ http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/Promoting-Scotland/18738/14640 Archived April 16, 2005, at the Wayback Machine
  48. ^ 2011 Census: First Results on Population and Household Estimates for Scotland Census day usually resident population by council area, 2001 and 2011; , Accessed 22 March 2013
  49. ^ "Table 4.2: Stillbirth,1 perinatal, neonatal, postneonatal and infant death rates, Scotland, 1946 to 2011" (PDF). General Register Office for Scotland. Archived from the original (PDF) on 5 June 2013. Retrieved 4 March 2013. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Demographics_of_Scotland&oldid=860433012"