Superpower

For other uses, see Superpower (disambiguation).

Military assets such as the USS Nimitz are one means of power projection on a global scale—a hallmark of a superpower

Soviet space station Mir was the world's most advanced space station until ISS. Global recognition of the Soviet Union's early leadership in space technology represented the kind of soft power that can increase the influence of a superpower

A superpower is a state with a leading position in the international system and the ability to influence events and project power on a worldwide scale; it is considered a higher level of power than a great power. It was a term first applied in 1943 to the United States, the Soviet Union, and (mostly, but not only) in retrospect to the British Empire. Following World War II, the power of the British Empire waned, and the Soviet Union and the United States were regarded as the only two superpowers, then engaged in the Cold War.

After the Cold War, the most common belief held that only the United States fulfilled the criteria to be considered a superpower. China, India, and the European Union however appear to have the potential of achieving superpower status within the 21st century. Others, however, doubt the existence of superpowers in the post Cold War era altogether, stating that today's complex global marketplace and the rising interdependency between the world's nations has made the concept of a superpower an idea of the past and that the world is now multipolar.

Application of the term

The term "superpowers" was used to describe nations with greater than Great Power status as early as 1943, but only gained its specific meaning with regard to the United States and the Soviet Union after World War II.

Origin

File:Superpower map 1945.PNG

A world map of 1945. According William T.R. Fox, the United States (Blue), the Soviet Union (Red), and the British Empire (Turquoise) were superpowers.

The term in its current political meaning was coined in the book The Superpowers (1943), written by William T.R. Fox, an American foreign policy professor. Fox used this word to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which, as the war then raging demonstrated, states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. According to him, there were (at that moment) three states that were superpowers: the United States, the Soviet Union, and the British Empire. The British Empire was the most extensive empire in world history , which was considered the foremost great power and which held sway by 1921 over one-quarter of the world's population and covered about a quarter of Earth's total land area, while the United States and the Soviet Union both proved their newly gained power in World War II.

Cold War

The Suez Crisis (1956) however made it clear that the British Empire, economically ravaged by two world wars, could no longer compete on an equal footing with the United States and Soviet Union without sacrificing its reconstruction efforts, even while acting in concert with France and Israel. As the majority of World War II was fought far from its national boundaries, the United States did not suffer the industrial destruction or massive civilian casualties that marked the wartime situation of the countries in Europe or Asia. During the war, the United States had built up a strong industrial and technological infrastructure that had greatly advanced its military strength into a primary position on the global stage.

File:Cold war.png

Major alliances during the Cold War.

Following the war, nearly all of Europe had aligned either with the United States or the Soviet Union. Despite attempts to create multinational coalitions or legislative bodies (such as the United Nations), it became increasingly clear that the United States and the Soviet Union were the dominant political and economic powers of the newly emerging Cold War, and had very different visions about what the post-war world ought to look like. This was reflected in the NATO and Warsaw Pact military alliances. These alliances implied that these two nations were part of an emerging bipolar world, in contrast with a previously multipolar world. A number of nations undertook various programs to attempt to secure their own independent "superpower" status, such as the development of nuclear weapons by the United Kingdom, France, and China, as a rite of passage for being a "world player."

The idea that the Cold War period revolved around only two blocs, or even only two nations, has been challenged by some scholars in the post-Cold War era, who have noted that the bipolar world only exists if one ignores all of the various movements and conflicts that occurred without influence from either of the two so-called superpowers. Additionally, much of the conflict between the superpowers was fought in "proxy wars", which more often than not involved issues far more complex than the standard Cold War oppositions.

After the Soviet Union disintegrated in the early 1990s, the term hyperpower began to be applied to the United States, as the sole remaining superpower of the Cold War era. This term, coined by French foreign minister Hubert Védrine in the 1990s, is controversial and the validity of classifying the United States in this way is disputed. One notable opponent to this theory, Samuel P. Huntington, rejects this theory in favor of a multipolar balance of power.

Recognition of earlier superpowers

There have been attempts to apply the term superpower retrospectively, to a variety of past entities such as the British Empire, Persian Empire, Roman Empire, and Spanish Empire Recognition by historians of these older states as superpowers may focus on various superlative traits exhibited by them. For example, at its peak the Spanish empire was among the largest the world had ever seen.

Characteristics

Template:Inote The criteria of a superpower are not clearly defined and as a consequence they may differ between sources. However, the following factors can be interpreted as a non-exhaustive list of characteristics that are generally associated with superpowers.

Cultural

Strong cultural influence, having soft power. The ability to influence other state's through cultural or ideological means, or the state’s reputation within the international community. Popular culture and the media are sources of soft power, as is the spread of a national language.

Geographical

It should have a wide land or sea area under its control. More territory generally allows a country to extract more natural resouces and grow more food, increasing its self-sufficiency and population. It is an important factor in warfare as it gives Strategic depth; allowing possibilities such as retreat, regrouping and reorganization as well as placing distant radars and missile silos - even a richer country with smaller territory can be more vulnerable in a military sense.

Economic and financial

Superior economic power is characterized by access to raw materials, volume and productivity of the domestic market, a leading position in world trade as well as global financial markets, innovation, and the ability to accumulate capital.

Demographic

A superpower should have a large and well educated population.

Military

Pre-eminent military ability, characterized by relative invulnerability, ability to deter or cause great damage, and capacity to effectively project unified military power globally, including nuclear weapons. However, nuclear weapons alone do not necessarily make a nation a superpower, and being a superpower may not necessarily require nuclear weapons, although some would agree that one should at least have the ability to create them relatively quickly.

Political and ideological

A functioning political system that is capable of mobilizing resources for world political goals and strong ideological influence.

The Cold War era (1945-1991)

U.S. and USSR/Russian nuclear weapons stockpiles, 1945-2006.

Main article: Cold War

The term superpower in this context was originally coined to describe the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, which opposed each other politically and economically during the Cold War.

The Soviet Union represented the ideology of communism, and led the Warsaw Pact, known as the Eastern Bloc in the West.

The United States represented the ideology of capitalism and led NATO during the Cold War.

The Soviet Union and the United States fulfilled the superpower criteria in the following ways:

	The Soviet Union	The United States
Political	Strong Communist system of government. Communist ideals spread its influence over the globe. Had permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Strong ties with Eastern Europe and the developing world. Strong ties with anti-colonialist movements and labor parties.	Strong and stable liberal democracy, influence over the globe. Strong companies allowed the US to exert further influence over capitalist nations. Permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Strong ties with Western Europe, Latin America, British Commonwealth, several East Asian countries, and the developing world.
Geographic	Covered 22 million km², 11 time zones; was the largest country in the world. Covered huge sea area, and encompassed vast deposits of minerals and large farming areas.	Third largest country in the world, with an area of approximately 9.6 million km² [2]. Vast resources of minerals, large farming industry.
Cultural	Vast influence over neighbors, varied and rich history and culture. Wielded influence through communist governments and organizations around the world. Communist ideals attractive to many over the world.	Huge influence over most of continent, integrated culture with Western Europe. Companies sold American and American-inspired cultural products all over the world. Freedom of speech attractive to many and other guaranteed rights for residents. Many large American cities have made a lasting cultural impact on the world.
Military	Had the largest army the world has ever seen (13 million in 1946). Sizable air force, imposing navy. Had the largest territory in the world with an abundance of strategic resources, the capability to develop advanced military and space technologies, and the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons for the second half of the Cold War.	Bases all over the world, particularly in an incomplete "ring" bordering the Soviet Union to the West, South and East. Largest nuclear arsenal in the world during the first half of the Cold War — stationed on its own soil and also in Europe. Strong and technologically advanced army, world's largest navy, and largest and most technologically advanced air force in the world.
Economic	Was the largest centrally planned economy in the world, and second largest economy overall. At one point, produced 20% of the world's industrial output.	Largest market economy in the world, and also largest economy overall.
Demographic	Had a population of 182 million (1951) to 293 million (1991), at that time the third largest on Earth (behind China and India).	Had a population of 151 million (1950) to 248 million (1990), at that time the fourth largest on Earth.

Superpowers today (1991-)

A pie chart showing the share of GDP (PPP) by major economies.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 that ended the Cold War, The post-Cold War world is widely considered as a unipolar world, with the United States as the world's sole remaining superpower. Proponents of the EU, China and India argue that this mainstream assessment of current global politics may not be so easily simplified, in part because of the difficulty of classifying the European Union at its current stage of development. Others argue that the notion of a superpower is antiquated, considering the complex global economic interdependencies that define this new century, and proposing that the world is multipolar.

Some analysts think the hegemonic stability theory explains the current evolution in international relations. Hegemonic states tend to overstretch their power, and new rivals will become gradually more powerful, eventually replacing or counterbalancing the weakened hegemony. Others argue that the notion of a superpower is antiquated, considering the complex global economic interdependencies that define this new century, and proposing that the world is multipolar

• Geographic factors. The United States is the third largest country in the world by land area, after Russia and Canada. (Counting the disputed Taiwanese area as part of China places the United States in fourth place.)
• Demographic factors. With over 300 million people, about 4.5% of the world population, the U.S. is the world's third most populous nation and the most populous with a high Human Development Index (ranking number eight).
• Political factors. The United States is characterized by a stable federal constitutional republic, is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (which means that the U.S. holds veto power), and its stance on world issues is usually supported by leaders of other nations, especially Western nations (such as the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Germany, Poland, and Israel) and some Eastern Asian nations (such as Thailand, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea).

A comparison of the budgets for the world's greatest military spenders. The United States military budget is larger than the military budgets of the next twenty largest spenders combined, and six times larger than China's, which places second.

• Economic and financial factors. The U.S. has the world's largest national economy with a GDP of over $13 trillion. and nearly 30% of the global market exchange-rate GDP. The U.S. also has a per-capita GDP much greater than any emerging superpower and higher than that of most industrialized countries, at USD $43,500. Furthermore, the U.S. has a decisive influence on international financial bodies, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Even more, American companies are leading players in many fields, such as new materials, information technology, nanotechnology, biotechnology, bioinformatics, and software, while at the same time the U.S. is a key agricultural and commodities producer, although it is dependent on petroleum imports.
• Military factors. In 2005 the U.S. spent more on its military than the next twelve countries combined ($522 billion). As of 2006, it has the world's second largest nuclear arsenal, carries some of the most advanced strategic nuclear missiles and combines some of the world's most technologically advanced weapons systems with the expeditionary capability to project military power to any point in the world. The U.S. has a strong and technologically advanced army, the largest navy, the largest and most technologically advanced air force, and second largest military (in number of active troops) in the world. Currently, the U.S. is also trying to develop an anti-ballistic missile shield.

• Cultural factors. American culture is highly influential worldwide, especially in Europe, China, Japan, and throughout English-speaking world. American consumer brands, especially fast food and beverage outlets, have penetrated worldwide and become accepted features of every developed nation and many developing countries. American internet and technology products are especially notable for being frequently cited as the most dominant in the worldwide market.

Potential superpowers

File:Emerging Superpowers.png

People's Republic of China   Republic of India   European Union

Both popular and academic commentators, historians, political scientists, journalists and economists predict the rise of new superpowers in the 21st century, mentioning in particular three likely superpower candidates. As to whether China, India, and the European Union can or will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate.

The EU has been called a 21st century superpower by academics. T.R. Reid, Andrew Reding and Mark Leonard, believe that the power of the European Union will rival that of the United States in the 21st century. Leonard cites four factors: the EU's large population , the EU's economy is larger than any country in the world, the EU's lowest inflation rates of all (potential)Superpowers, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members' highly developed social organization or quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week and income distribution). On the other hand - among others - Laurent Cohen-Tanugi states that the EU as a whole has consistently suffered from a growth deficit vis-a-vis the US, high unemployment, and public deficits. Furthermore, Cohen-Tanugi stresses that most member states of the EU lag substantially behind the US in R&D investment, technological innovation, and, since 1995, productivity gains.

The People's Republic of China nominal GDP in yuan, from 1952 to 2005.

China receives almost continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status. "Foreign Affairs" editor James Hoge notes that China’s economy will probably surpass Germany’s in less than ten years and overtake Japan’s in less than twenty. Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China is too fragile to survive into superpower status according to Susan Shirk, writing in China: Fragile Superpower.

Newsweek, and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's potential to be a third superpower. India's emergence in the spheres of information technology and regional power politics are recognized as reasons that India may rival American, European or Chinese power in the future. Cait Murphy however summarizes the most repeated objection to India's qualification as a superpower by arguing that no nation that contains half of the world's chronically hungry is worthy of that status.China and India rising to superpower status isn't inevitable, according to scholars such as Professor Pranab Bardhan, Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, who suggest that millions mired in poverty and ineffective government prevent China or India from rivaling the U.S. or the E.U. any time soon.

See also

• Historical powers

Bibliography

• Belt, Don (2004). "Europe's Big Gamble". National Geographic. pp. 54–65.
• Brzezinski, Zbigniew (1997). The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books. ISBN 0-465-02726-1.
• Fox, William (1944). The Super-powers: the United States, Britain, and the Soviet union—their responsibility for peace. Harcourt, Brace a. Co.
• Kamen, Henry (2003). Spain's Road To Empire: The Making Of A World Power, 1492-1763. Penguin. pp. 640p.
• Kennedy, Paul (1988). The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. ISBN 0-679-72019-7.
• McCormick, John, John (2007). The European Superpower. Palgave Macmillan.
• Todd, Emanuel (200X). After the Empire — The Breakdown of the American Order.