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2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

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Michigan Democratic primary, 2016
← 2008 March 8, 2016 (2016-03-08) 2020 →
 
Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count 67 63
Popular vote 598,943 581,775
Percentage 49.68% 48.26%
Michigan results by county
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton

The 2016 Michigan Democratic primary took place on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held a second primary in Mississippi, while the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win in the primary is widely considered to be a major upset, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.[1]

Forums and debates

March 2016 debate in Flint

Main article: Seventh Democratic Party presidential debate, March 2016 in Flint, Michigan

On March 6, 2016 the Democratic Party held a seventh presidential debate at the The Whiting at the Flint Cultural Center. Flint, Michigan was chosen as the epicenter of the ongoing Flint water crisis.[2] The debate was hosted by Anderson Cooper and aired on CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. At the end of the debate, Cooper announced a labor union fund had committed $25 million in low-interest loans towards repairing the water system.

March 2016 forum in Detroit

See also: Democratic Party presidential debates, 2016

Next day, on March 7, 2016, a Town Hall event, was held as the eighth democratic forum. It started at 6:00 p.m. E.S.T., at the Gem Theatre in Detroit, Michigan, and was aired by the Fox News Channel.[3] The forum was moderated by Bret Baier.

Opinion polling

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Official Primary results[4] March 8, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49.7% 		Hillary Clinton
48.3% 		Others / Uncommitted
2.1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[5]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 482

March 7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61% 		Bernie Sanders
34% 		Others / Undecided
5%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 475

March 6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
66% 		Bernie Sanders
29% 		Others / Undecided
5%
Monmouth[7]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

March 3–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55% 		Bernie Sanders
42% 		Others / Undecided
4%
ARG[8]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 4–5, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60% 		Bernie Sanders
36% 		Others / Undecided
4%
CBS News/YouGov[8]

Margin of error: ± 7.7%
Sample size: 597

March 2–4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55% 		Bernie Sanders
44% 		Others / Undecided
1%
Mitchell/FOX 2[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 610

March 2–3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55% 		Bernie Sanders
37% 		Others / Undecided
8%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 546

March 1–3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57% 		Bernie Sanders
40% 		Others / Undecided
3%
MSU[11]

Margin of error: ± 6.1%
Sample size: 262

January 25-March 3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52% 		Bernie Sanders
47% 		Others / Undecided
1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 427

March 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61% 		Bernie Sanders
33% 		Others / Undecided
6%
MRG[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 218

February 22–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56% 		Bernie Sanders
36% 		Others / Undecided
8%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[14]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 344

February 23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
65% 		Bernie Sanders
31% 		Others / Undecided
4%
ARG[15]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400

February 19–20, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53% 		Bernie Sanders
40% 		Others / Undecided
7%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.69%
Sample size: 430

February 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60% 		Bernie Sanders
27% 		Others / Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[17]

Margin of error: ± 4.4
Sample size: 500

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
50% 		Bernie Sanders
40%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[18]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 321

February 4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57% 		Bernie Sanders
28% 		Others / Undecided 15%
IMP/Target Insyght [18]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

February 2–4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62% 		Bernie Sanders
30% 		Others / Undecided 8%
Marketing Resource Group[19]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 600

September 9–14, 2015 Hillary Clinton
41% 		Bernie Sanders
22% 		Joe Biden 22% Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling[20]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 431

June 25–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
57% 		Bernie Sanders
25% 		Lincoln Chafee 5% Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Not sure 10%
Suffolk[21]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 212

September 6–10, 2014 Hillary Clinton
61% 		Joe Biden
17% 		Elizabeth Warren
7% 		Andrew Cuomo 4%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 9%, Refused 1%

Results

See also: Results of the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016
Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 598,943 49.68% 67 0 67
Hillary Clinton 581,775 48.26% 63 10 73
Uncommitted 21,601 1.79% 0 7 7
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 2,363 0.20%
Rocky De La Fuente 870 0.07%
Total 1,205,552 100% 130 17 147
Source: [22]
Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 6 28,860 44,359 73,219 2 4
2 5 26,090 39,834 65,924 2 3
3 5 28,441 45,282 73,723 2 3
4 5 24,928 35,597 60,525 2 3
5 7 48,622 42,755 91,377 4 3
6 5 28,265 39,157 67,422 2 3
7 5 29,186 36,019 65,205 2 3
8 5 35,205 46,969 82,174 2 3
9 6 48,570 50,903 99,473 3 3
10 5 28,314 33,710 62,024 2 3
11 6 39,732 45,054 84,786 3 3
12 7 50,157 58,892 109,049 3 4
13 9 71,235 37,028 108,263 6 3
14 9 88,494 42,608 131,102 6 3
Total 85 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 41 44
PLEO 17 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 8 9
At Large 28 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 14 14
Gr. Total 130 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 63 67
Total vote 1,205,552 48.26% 49.68%
Source: Michigan Department of State Election results (District 13 and 14 (Wayne County) partial

Results By County

County Clinton Votes Sanders Votes
Alcona 48.74% 463 47.89% 455
Alger 37.07% 384 60.64% 622
Allegan 38.01% 3,511 60.28% 5,569
Alpena 44.26% 1,102 54.10% 1,347
Antrim 36.09% 867 62.07% 1,491
Arenac 46.12% 595 51.40% 663
Baraga 40.36% 270 55.46% 371
Barry 35.41% 1,736 62.79% 3,078
Bay 45.98% 5,937 49.28% 6,363
Benzie 33.48% 853 64.76% 1,650
Berrien 51.54% 6,698 45.93% 5,968
Branch 43.44% 1,010 53.59% 1,246
Calhoun 46.36% 5,231 51.51% 5,812
Cass 48.37% 1,657 49.15% 1,684
Charlevoix 36.73% 1,044 60.87% 1,730
Cheboygan 42.62% 1,010 55.61% 1,318
Chippewa 39.83% 1,230 58.06% 1,793
Clare 45.76% 1,090 52.02% 1,239
Clinton 42.16% 3,402 55.72% 4,496
Crawford 42.33% 494 54.07% 631
Delta 43.34% 1,409 52.45% 1,705
Dickinson 43.51% 908 51.51% 1,075
Eaton 43.99% 5,866 53.43% 7,125
Emmet 33.91% 1,369 64.13% 2,589
Genesee 51.75% 31,366 46.48% 28,171
Gladwin 46.33% 985 50.94% 1,083
Gogebic 44.90% 678 52.32% 790
Grand Traverse 33.19% 4,140 64.86% 8,091
Gratiot 38.87% 1,185 59.43% 1,812
Hillsdale 40.17% 977 56.74% 1,380
Houghton 34.79% 1,109 63.96% 2,039
Huron 45.99% 1,050 51.86% 1,184
Ingham 43.49% 17,884 54.91% 22,580
Ionia 33.99% 1,491 64.11% 2,812
Iosco 46.08% 1,077 51.43% 1,202
Iron 48.30% 527 50.05% 546
Isabella 33.19% 2,032 65.72% 4,024
Jackson 42.72% 5,288 54.97% 6,804
Kalamazoo 37.92% 12,611 60.63% 20,162
Kalkaska 35.53% 590 61.11% 987
Kent 36.86% 26,032 61.52% 43,444
Keweenaw 39.75% 128 58.39% 188
Lake 50.14 548 47.03% 514
Lapeer 40.39% 3,325 56.49% 4,650
Leelanau 37.67% 1,459 60.93% 2,360
Lenawee 43.73% 3,455 53.87% 4,256
Livingston 38.14% 6,705 59.35% 10,435
Luce 35.46% 167 61.78% 291
Mackinac 42.77% 500 54.15% 633
Macomb 48.80% 47,599 47.42% 46,248
Manistee 39.63% 1,120 58.24% 1,646
Marquette 35.59% 3,188 61.74% 5,530
Mason 40.56% 1,223 57.24% 1,741
Mecosta 38.88% 1,173 58.60% 1,768
Menominee 48.72% 835 46.97% 805
Midland 39.81% 3,097 58.71% 4,568
Missaukee 39.08% 401 57.60% 591
Monroe 47.25% 6,716 48.13% 6,842
Montcalm 36.85% 1,681 60.54% 2,762
Montmorency 48.70% 392 47.58% 383
Muskegon 44.53% 8,807 52.86% 10,456
Newaygo 36.49% 1,295 60.72% 2,155
Oakland 51.38% 92,300 46.85% 84,163
Oceana 38.21% 791 59.76% 1,237
Ogemaw 46.24% 862 49.68% 926
Ontonagon 44.37% 327 49.12% 362
Osceola 40.39% 670 57.44% 953
Oscoda 44.90% 273 51.81% 315
Otsego 37.97% 786 47.5% 1,228
Ottawa 34.39% 7,473 64.24% 13,959
Presque Isle 47.70% 592 48.83% 606
Roscommon 47.33% 1,163 48.31% 1,187
Saginaw 55.32% 12,490 42.86% 9,676
St. Clair 40.96% 5,973 56.54% 8,347
St. Joseph 37.66% 1,382 60.46% 2,219
Sanilac 42.00% 1,160 53.77% 1,485
Schoolcraft 45.75% 312 50.59% 345
Shiawassee 39.38% 3,031 57.84% 4,452
Tuscola 42.65% 1,984 54.43% 2,532
Van Buren 39.73% 2,484 58.48% 3,656
Washtenaw 43.70% 30,022 55.41% 38,062
Wayne 60.11% 165,819 38.24% 105,487
Wexford 32.95% 909 64.99% 1,793
Total 48.26% 581,775 49.68% 598,943

Analysis

Bernie Sanders's narrow, one-point win in Michigan was seen as a major upset for the Clinton campaign, since Bernie Sanders had never led a poll in that state. Many theories about the failure of the Michigan polling circulated throughout the media, with most centering on pollsters' erroneous assumptions about the composition of the electorate stemming from the 2008 primary in Michigan not having been contested due to an impasse between the state party and DNC.[73][74][75] Although Clinton expanded her delegate lead with a lopsided victory in Mississippi that same day, some journalists suggested Sanders' upset might presage her defeat in other delegate-rich Midwestern Rust Belt states,[76] such as Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, who voted a week later on March 15, along with North Carolina and Florida, where Clinton was more clearly favored.[77][78]

Sanders beat Clinton among white voters in Michigan, who made up 70% of the electorate, by a margin of 56-42, a margin perhaps larger than the Clinton campaign had anticipated. Independents, who made up 27% of the electorate, backed Sanders 71-28. As was true in other primaries, Clinton won the votes of women and African Americans, but Sanders's margins with Independents and rural voters, mostly Working class whites who felt disaffected and disenfranchised by trade deals championed by Hillary Clinton and her husband,[23] were not able to be surpassed, even by Clinton's large leads in major cities such as Detroit and Flint. Among voters who said their primary concern was the U.S. economy, Sanders won 56-40, even though Clinton has hammered him on his 2009 vote against the auto-bailout which she believed would resonate in a state whose economy depended upon manufacturing and the auto industry. Among unions, Sanders had beaten Clinton 49-46, even though in previous contests union households had broken for Clinton.[24] Hand-wringing began on the Clinton side, with the campaign worrying they turned their attention to the general election too soon, as Hillary Clinton had pleaded "the sooner I could become your nominee, the more I could begin to turn my attention to the Republicans."[25]

Sanders thanked supporters after his stunning upset, "What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign, the people's revolution that we're talking about, the political revolution that we're talking about, is strong in every part of the country [...] And, frankly, we believe our strongest areas are yet to happen."[26]

Clinton went on to win the next five states in the Democratic primary, including Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.

References

  1. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary". www.realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved 2016-05-28.
  2. ^ "Flint gets Democratic presidential debate on March 6". Detroit News. February 3, 2016. Retrieved February 3, 2016.
  3. ^ http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fox-news-will-hold-democratic-town-hall-next-week-only-one-candidate-set-to-appear/ar-BBqjnZC?ocid=spartanntp
  4. ^ Official Primary results
  5. ^ "Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
  6. ^ "Clinton Opens Up Huge Lead in Michigan" (PDF).
  7. ^ "MICHIGAN: TRUMP, CLINTON IN FRONT" (PDF).
  8. ^ a b "Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
  9. ^ "Clinton's lead on Sanders shrinks heading into Michigan Primary".
  10. ^ "Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton Hold Big Leads in Michigan: Poll".
  11. ^ "TRUMP LEADS GOP FIELD IN MICHIGAN; DEMOCRATIC RACE CLOSE".
  12. ^ "Clinton, Trump maintain large leads ahead of debates, primary".
  13. ^ "Trump & Clinton Poised to Take Michigan" (PDF).
  14. ^ "Clinton Leads Sanders by 34% February 23, 2016" (PDF).
  15. ^ "ARG POll February 19–20, 2016".
  16. ^ "Clinton Leads Sanders by 33%" (PDF). realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved 20 February 2016.
  17. ^ "Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support" (PDF).
  18. ^ a b "IMP/Target Insyght Poll: Clinton Dominates Dem Primary". insidemichiganpolitics.com. Retrieved 2016-02-08.
  19. ^ "Hillary up 19 over Biden and Sanders". mrgmi.com. Retrieved 2015-09-16.
  20. ^ "PPP MI" (PDF). publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved 2015-07-09.
  21. ^ Suffolk
  22. ^ The Green Papers
  23. ^ CNN, MJ Lee, Jeff Zeleny, Dana Bash and Dan Merica. "What went wrong for Hillary Clinton?". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  24. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
  25. ^ CNN, MJ Lee, Jeff Zeleny, Dana Bash and Dan Merica. "What went wrong for Hillary Clinton?". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  26. ^ CNN, MJ Lee, Jeff Zeleny, Dana Bash and Dan Merica. "What went wrong for Hillary Clinton?". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
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