2016 Ohio Democratic primary

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Ohio Democratic primary, 2016

← 2008 March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15) 2020 →
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 81 62
Popular vote 696,681 535,395
Percentage 56.12% 43.13%

Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

The 2016 Ohio Democratic primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states and a caucus in the Northern Mariana Islands, as well as their own Ohio primary.

Background[edit]

By the time Ohio held its primaries, voters from 21 states and two territories already cast their vote for the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party. As of the March 12 elections, Hillary Clinton was projected to have earned 775 pledged delegates to Bernie Sanders' 552.[1] Clinton gained significant victories in the Southern United States, often described as her "firewall",[2] including landslide victories in Mississippi and Alabama and Georgia.[3][4] Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders gained victories in the Midwestern United States,[5] where Ohio resides, including an upset victory in neighboring Michigan on March 8.[6][7] After the fact, Sanders' campaign took advantage of the momentum gained from the Michigan win, by targeting Illinois, Missouri and Ohio in the March 15 elections, hoping to repeat the same result. Sanders stated that "Not only is Michigan the gateway to the rest of the industrial Midwest, the results there show that we are a national campaign."[8]

Before the Michigan primaries, Clinton and Sanders had debated over economic policies relating to the industrial midwest states and the so-called "rust belt". The disagreements centered around trade deals, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Clinton's past support of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and its effect on economies such as Michigan and Ohio.[9][10]

Controversy[edit]

Ohio is one of at least seventeen states that has laws allowing voters who are 17 years of age, but will be 18 by the time of the general election, to vote in the presidential primaries.[11] However, Ohio Secretary of State Jon A. Husted had announced in December 2015 that 17 year olds would be outright barred from participating in the 2016 primaries. The rationale for the decision was based on an interpretation of the law in which 17 year olds could "nominate" officials for office, but not "elect". In the case of the presidential primaries, by definition, voters would be electing officials - delegates to each party's presidential nominating convention.[12] The decision was met with criticism by the public, after it was brought to mainstream attention by Representative Kathleen Clyde, after she condemned the rule in a statement released on March 5. Clyde described it as a "underhanded, backroom attack" against young voters.[13] Nine teenagers filed a lawsuit with the Ohio Courts of Common Pleas in Franklin County over the decision, stating that the decision contradicted state law and a decision by the Supreme Court of the United States that allowed 17 year olds turning 18 by the general election to vote.[14]

Bernie Sanders' campaign, whose voter base includes the majority of young voters,[15][16] also filed a lawsuit against the decision, accusing Husted of "arbitrarily" and "unconsititutionally" discriminating against young African-American and Latino voters, citing data from the 2010 United States Census that shows younger voters in Ohio where mostly African-American and Latino.[17][18] Husted, in response to Sanders' lawsuit, said in a public statement that he welcomed the lawsuit, further stating that "I am very happy to be sued on this issue because the law is crystal clear",[17] though, he later spoke out negatively against the lawsuit, claiming that it was a "a last-minute political act", designed to "draw attention to his campaign."[19] Many Ohio officials, past and present, such as former Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, came out in support of Sanders' lawsuit,[20] and had attracted protests by not only Bernie Sanders supporters, but also Donald Trump supporters as well.[21] In a decision handed down on March 11, an Ohio state judge ruled in favour of both lawsuits by the teenage group and the Sanders campaign, effectively lifting the ban on 17 year olds from voting in the Ohio presidential primaries.[22] Husted initially announced that he would appeal the ruling,[23] however, after learning that such an appeal wouldn't be heard by the court until the day before the primaries, he retracted his intent to appeal.[24]

Debates and Forums[edit]

March 13, 2016 – Columbus, Ohio

The ninth forum was held at 8:00 pm EDT on March 13, 2016, at the campus of Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, and aired on CNN.[25]

March 14, 2016 – Columbus, Ohio and Springfield, Illinois

The tenth forum was held at 6:00 pm EDT on March 14, 2016, at the campus of Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, and at the Old State Capitol State Historic Site (Illinois) in Springfield, Illinois. It aired on MSNBC. The first section of the town hall with Bernie Sanders was moderated by Chuck Todd; the second section of the town hall with Hillary Clinton was moderated by Chris Matthews.

Opinion polling[edit]

Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Primary results March 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56.1%
Bernie Sanders
43.1%
Other
0.8%
ARG[26]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 12–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
45%
Others / Undecided
3%
Monmouth[27]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

March 11–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
54%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
6%
Quinnipiac[28]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 543

March 8–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
46%
Others / Undecided
4%
Public Policy Polling[29]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 502

March 11–12, 2016 Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
13%
CBS News/YouGov[30]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 777

March 9–11, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided
5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist[31]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 453

March 4–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
4%
Quinnipiac[32]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 521

March 2–7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided
5%
Public Polling Policy

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 508

March 4–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
35%
Others / Undecided
9%
CNN/ORC[33]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 294

March 2–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
63%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
4%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 518

February 16–20, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
5%
BW Community Research Institute

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 385

February 11–20, 2016 Bernie Sanders
45%
Hillary Clinton
44%
Others / Undecided
11%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 1,138

January 12–14, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Not sure 10%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Quinnipiac University[34]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 396

September 25 – October 5, 2015 Hillary Clinton
40%
Joe Biden
21%
Bernie Sanders
19%
Undecided 11%
Quinnipiac University[35]

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample size: 353

August 7–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
17%
Joe Biden
14%
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 3%, Wouldn't vote 6%, Undecided 12%
Quinnipiac University[36]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 388

June 4–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
60%
Joe Biden
13%
Bernie Sanders
10%
Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Jim Webb 0%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample size: 360

June 4–7, 2015 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
13%
Michael Bloomberg
7%
Lincoln Chafee 2%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Not sure 13%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 5.4%
Sample size: 324

March 17–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
54%
Elizabeth Warren
14%
Joe Biden
9%
Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 12%
Joe Biden
34%
Elizabeth Warren
25%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 24%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 315

January 22 – February 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton
51%
Elizabeth Warren
14%
Joe Biden
7%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Joe Biden
28%
Elizabeth Warren
24%
Bernie Sanders
7%
Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 4%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 28%

Results[edit]

Ohio Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 696,681 56.12% 81 14 95
Bernie Sanders 535,395 43.13% 62 1 63
Rocky De La Fuente 9,402 0.76%
Uncommitted N/A 2 2
Total 1,241,478 100% 143 17 160
Source: The Green Papers
Ohio Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
District Delegates available Votes Delegates
Clinton Sanders De La Fuente Total Qualified total Clinton Sanders
1 4 42,600 29,747 272 72,619 72,347 2 2
2 4 39,061 30,597 483 70,141 69,658 2 2
3 12 59,740 43,898 302 103,940 103,638 7 5
4 4 29,317 25,831 677 55,825 55,148 2 2
5 4 32,068 32,279 544 64,891 64,347 2 2
6 4 32,611 27,413 1,545 61,569 60,024 2 2
7 4 33,596 27,823 745 62,164 61,419 2 2
8 4 26,463 21,879 413 48,755 48,342 2 2
9 8 55,401 42,141 680 98,222 97,542 5 3
10 4 41,641 31,089 350 73,080 72,730 2 2
11 17 91,235 43,124 382 134,741 134,359 12 5
12 4 38,046 34,109 352 72,507 72,155 2 2
13 8 56,933 45,981 1,055 103,969 102,914 4 4
14 4 43,317 33,627 537 77,481 76,944 2 2
15 4 33,764 32,516 516 66,796 66,280 2 2
16 4 40,888 33,341 549 74,778 74,229 2 2
Total 93 696,681 535,395 9,402 1,241,478 1,232,076 52 41
PLEO 19 11 8
At Large 31 18 13
Gr. Total 143 81 62
Total vote 56.12% 43.13% 0.76% 100.00% 99.24%
Source: Ohio Secretary of State Presidential Preference Primary Precinct Level Official Results (Democrat)

Results by county[edit]

County[37] Clinton Votes Sanders Votes
Adams 56.8% 877 41.3% 638
Allen 56.6% 3,670 42.1% 2,730
Ashland 49.1% 1,451 49.5% 1,465
Ashtabula 54.9% 5,320 43.9% 4,256
Athens 38.2% 3,533 61.2% 5,663
Auglaize 51.0% 1,031 47.1% 952
Belmont 53.1% 3,982 43.5% 3,263
Belmont 58.3% 1,562 39.8% 1,067
Butler 53.4% 12,874 46.0% 11,102
Carroll 51.4% 1,084 46.2% 976
Champaign 51.9% 1,226 46.6% 1,099
Clark 58.7% 7,107 40.5% 4,905
Clermont 49.4% 5,642 50.0% 5,710
Clinton 48.5% 909 50.3% 942
Columbiana 52.6% 4,106 45.8% 3,573
Coshocton 53.6% 1,358 44.5% 1,128
Crawford 51.4% 1,344 43.6% 1,141
Cuyahoga 63.2% 125,914 36.3% 72,297
Darke 54.2% 1,246 43.4% 999
Defiance 50.6% 1,507 48.2% 1,435
Delaware 57.9% 9,552 41.8% 6,891
Erie 55.3% 5,449 43.6% 4,299
Fairfield 55.3% 6,408 43.8% 5,074
Fayette 58.3% 760 40.9% 533
Franklin 55.3% 84,654 44.4% 67,855
Fulton 48.7% 1,480 50.3% 1,528
Gallia 47.7% 945 48.8% 966
Geauga 54.0% 4,171 45.5% 3,516
Greene 49.4% 6,672 50.0% 6,759
Guernsey 53.0% 1,440 45.2% 1,228
Hamilton 59.5% 57,687 40.2% 38,956
Hancock 44.9% 2,062 54.2% 2,490
Hardin 52.6% 771 45.7% 669
Harrison 53.2% 818 43.8% 674
Henry 50.0% 977 48.7% 952
Highland 55.2% 1,119 43.1% 873
Hocking 52.3% 1,204 46.0% 1,060
Holmes 48.8% 561 48.5% 558
Huron 50.9% 2,036 47.7% 1,907
Jackson 58.3% 1,010 40.1% 694
Jefferson 54.7% 4,328 42.3% 3,353
Knox 48.5% 1,902 50.6% 1,987
Lake 54.3% 12,506 44.9% 10,351
Lawrence 55.4% 2,654 41.6% 1,994
Licking 53.3% 6,785 45.9% 5,849
Logan 49.6% 1,012 48.9% 998
Lorain 56.1% 21,144 42.9% 16,154
Lucas 56.9% 32,137 42.7% 24,111
Madison 56.8% 1,225 42.8% 923
Mahoning 59.3% 21,000 39.7% 14,066
Marion 56.9% 2,585 42.0% 1,909
Medina 53.1% 7,913 46.3% 6,888
Meigs 49.9% 800 47.2% 757
Mercer 53.5% 1,037 44.4% 860
Miami 53.2% 3,155 45.6% 2,706
Monroe 48.1% 1,191 45.9% 1,138
Montgomery 59.4% 33,352 40.1% 22,538
Morgan 56.2% 566 42.7% 430
Morrow 52.1% 1,164 46.3% 1,035
Muskingum 56.6% 3,066 42.4% 2,299
Noble 53.9% 522 41.7% 404
Ottawa 55.4% 2,566 43.4% 2,012
Paulding 55.8% 723 41.7% 540
Perry 56.7% 1,465 41.4% 1,070
Pickaway 55.6% 2,097 43.2% 1,631
Pike 56.8% 1,336 40.3% 949
Portage 49.0% 8,665 50.2% 8,877
Preble 52.2% 1,176 46.4% 1,046
Putnam 45.3% 811 52.3% 936
Richland 55.5% 5,225 43.3% 4,080
Ross 57.2% 3,582 41.4% 2,595
Sandusky 53.4% 2,866 45.7% 2,456
Scioto 53.7% 3,499 44.6% 2,903
Seneca 49.6% 2,081 49.2% 2,064
Shelby 52.3% 1,284 45.2% 1,110
Stark 56.5% 21,515 42.6% 16,235
Summit 56.6% 38,874 42.9% 29,451
Trumbull 53.9% 17,903 44.4% 14,726
Tuscarawas 51.6% 4,479 46.3% 4,019
Union 50.8% 1,580 48.3% 1,501
Van Wert 51.9% 710 45.4% 621
Vinton 49.5% 515 47.7% 496
Warren 53.3% 6,970 46.3% 6,054
Washington 50.5% 2,557 47.6% 2,411
Wayne 51.3% 3,448 48.0% 3,225
Williams 45.8% 1,007 52.6% 1,156
Wood 45.8% 6,108 53.7% 7,165
Wyandot 49.7% 661 48.6% 647
Total 56.5% 679,266 42.7% 513,549

Analysis[edit]

Clinton managed a commanding win in the Ohio primary which mirrored her 2008 performance, finally showcasing her strength with working-class whites in the Rust Belt (a group she had lost resoundingly to Sanders the week before in Michigan); Clinton won the white vote 53-47 which comprised 74% of the Ohio electorate. She also won the African American vote, 71-28. And while Sanders won men 51-48 and voters under the age of 45 65-34, Clinton won women 63-36 (including white women 61-38 who made up 41% of the electorate, and won both married and unmarried women) and she won older voters 70-29. She swept all income levels and educational attainment levels in the Buckeye State. She also won unions, an important demographic in the industrial Rust Belt, by a margin of 55-45.

In terms of political ideology, Clinton swept all groups: liberals, moderates, and conservatives. She won Democrats 64-35, but lost Independents 66-33 to Sanders.

Clinton swept most counties in the state, winning urban areas 61-38, suburban areas 63-36, and rural areas by a modest 51-48. Clinton won in the Cleveland area 63-35, in Northern Ohio 57-43, in the Ohio Valley and Western Ohio 52-47, in the Columbus area 52-47, and in Cincinnati/Dayton, 55-45.[38]

References[edit]

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