United Kingdom general election, 2015 (England)

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United Kingdom general election, 2015 (England)

← 2010 7 May 2015 (2015-05-07) 2017 →

All 533 English seats to the House of Commons

  First party Second party Third party
  David Cameron official.jpg Ed Miliband 2.jpg Nick Clegg.jpg
Leader David Cameron Ed Miliband Nick Clegg
Party Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat
Leader since 6 December 2005 25 September 2010 18 December 2007
Leader's seat Witney Doncaster North Sheffield Hallam
Last election 297 seats, 39.5% 191 seats, 28.1% 43 seats, 24.2%
Seats won 318* 206 6
Seat change Increase21 Increase15 Decrease37
Popular vote 10,483,261 8,087,706 2,098,430
Percentage 40.9% 31.6% 8.2%
Swing Increase1.4% Increase3.6% Decrease16.0%

2015UKElectionMapEngland.svg
A map of English parliamentary constituencies
*Seat figure does not include the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, who was included in the Conservative seat total by some media outlets.

The 2015 United Kingdom general election in England was held on 7 May 2015 for 533 English seats to the House of Commons. The Conservatives won a majority of English seats for the second election in a row.

Both major parties made gains at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, whose support collapsed to its lowest level since 1970. Their vote share declined by 16 percentage points, and the party lost 37 of its 43 MPs. The party won 6 seats and 8% of the vote overall. This was the worst result for the Lib Dems or the Liberals in 45 years, while the 16-point drop in vote share was the biggest decline in Lib Dem or Liberal support since 1931.

Although Labour increased their vote share by 4% and gained 15 seats, the Conservatives made 21 gains for a total of 318, including taking 6 seats directly from Labour. Together with seats from Scotland and Wales, this allowed the Conservatives to form a majority government with 330 seats, leading to the first majority Conservative administration since 1992.

Political context[edit]

The general election was fought with the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats having been in coalition since 2010, with Labour being the main opposition, though with the Conservatives holding the majority of English seats. It was also fought following the victory of the UK Independence Party in the European Elections and in two by-elections the year before (2014), along with George Galloway of the Respect Party having won the Bradford West by-election, 2012 from Labour.

Results summary[edit]

Party[1] Seats Votes
Total Gains Losses Net +/- % seats Total votes % votes Change
Conservative 318 32 11 Increase21 59.7 10,483,261 40.9 Increase1.4
Labour 206 21 6 Increase15 38.6 8,087,684 31.6 Increase3.6
UKIP 1 1 0 Increase1 0.2 3,611,367 14.1 Increase10.7
Liberal Democrat 6 0 37 Decrease37 1.1 2,098,404 8.2 Decrease16.0
Green 1 0 0 Steady 0.2 1,073,242 4.2 Increase3.2
Speaker 1 0 0 Steady 0.2 34,617 0.1 Steady
TUSC 0 0 0 Steady 32,868 0.1 Increase0.1
National Health Action 0 0 0 Steady 20,210 0.1 N/A
Respect 0 0 0 Steady 9,989 0.0 Decrease0.1
Yorkshire Party 0 0 0 Steady 6,811 0.0 N/A
English Democrat 0 0 0 Steady 6,431 0.0 Decrease0.2
CISTA 0 0 0 Steady 4,569 0.0 N/A
Monster Raving Loony 0 0 0 Steady 3,432 0.0 Steady
Christian Peoples 0 0 0 Steady 3,260 0.0 Steady
BNP 0 0 0 Steady 1,667 0.0 Decrease2.1
Class War 0 0 0 Steady 526 0.0 N/A
Other parties 0 0 0 Steady 127,133 0.5 Decrease0.2
25,571,204 65.9 Increase0.4
Popular vote
Conservative
40.9%
Labour
31.6%
UKIP
14.1%
Liberal Democrats
8.2%
Greens
4.2%
Other
0.9%
Parliament seats
Conservative
59.7%
Labour
38.6%
Liberal Democrats
1.1%
UKIP
0.2%
Greens
0.2%
Speaker
0.2%

Analysis[edit]

The Conservatives emerged as the largest party increasing both its number of seats and votes winning seats both from the Liberal Democrats and the Labour party, as well as holding on to many of their key marginal seats.

Labour though increasing both in number of votes and seats after making gains against the Liberal Democrats along with limited gains against the Conservative Party failed to become the largest party losing its Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls to the Conservatives, with its leader Ed Miliband resigning as Labour leader.

The Liberal Democrats lost the vast majority of its seats barely keeping that of its former leader Nick Clegg who resigned on the morning of the election results.

UKIP made large gains in the percentage of votes, though failed to retain Rochester and Strood or to take any seats, leading to the resignation of its leader Nigel Farage.

The Green party increased its share of the vote and held Brighton Pavilion but also failed to make any gains.

Campaign events[edit]

  • 31 March: First official day of the election campaign
  • 13 April: Labour Party launched its manifesto [2]
  • 14 April: Conservative Party and Green Party launched their manifestos
  • 15 April: UKIP and the Liberal Democrats launched their manifestos
  • 7 May: BBC Exit poll showed the Conservative party as the largest party
  • 8 May: Conservative Party emerges as the largest party in England, gaining a majority of M.P.s in the House of Commons and forming the next Government of the United Kingdom as a Majority.

Target seats[edit]

The recorded swing in each case is calculated as two-way swing from the party that won in 2010 to the party targeting the seat. Negative swing implies that the targeting party lost votes to the incumbent party.

Conservative Party[edit]

Rank Constituency Region Winning party
2010
Swing
required (%)
Result Swing to
CON (±%)
1 Hampstead and Kilburn London Labour 0.10 Labour hold -1.0
2 Bolton West North West England Labour 0.10 Conservative gain +0.9
3 Solihull West Midlands Liberal Democrats 0.16 Conservative gain +11.9
4 Southampton Itchen South East England Labour 0.22 Conservative gain +2.8
5 Mid Dorset and North Poole South West England Liberal Democrats 0.29 Conservative gain +11.6
6 Wirral South North West England Labour 0.66 Labour hold -4.8
7 Derby North East Midlands Labour 0.68 Conservative gain +0.8
8 Wells South West England Liberal Democrats 0.72 Conservative gain +7.4
9 Dudley North West Midlands Labour 0.84 Labour hold -4.7
10 Great Grimsby Yorkshire and the Humber Labour 1.08 Labour hold -5.7

Labour Party[edit]

Rank Constituency Region Winning party 2010 Swing
required (%)
Result Swing to
LAB (±%)
1 North Warwickshire West Midlands Conservative 0.06 Conservative hold −3.1
2 Thurrock South East England Conservative 0.10 Conservative hold −0.5
3 Hendon London Conservative 0.11 Conservative hold −3.7
4 Sherwood East Midlands Conservative 0.22 Conservative hold −4.4
5 Norwich South East of England Liberal Democrats 0.33 Labour gain +13.2
6 Stockton South North East England Conservative 0.33 Conservative hold −4.6
7 Broxtowe East Midlands Conservative 0.37 Conservative hold −3.7
8 Lancaster and Fleetwood North West England Conservative 0.39 Labour gain +1.9
9 Bradford East Yorkshire and the Humber Liberal Democrats 0.45 Labour gain +9.0
10 Amber Valley East Midlands Conservative 0.58 Conservative hold −4.1

Liberal Democrats[edit]

Rank Constituency Region Winning party 2010 Swing
required (%)
Result Swing to
LD (±%)
1 Camborne and Redruth South West England Conservative 0.08 Conservative hold −13.8
2 Oxford West and Abingdon South East England Conservative 0.16 Conservative hold −8.3
3 Sheffield Central Yorkshire and the Humber Labour 0.20 Labour hold −22.5
4 Ashfield East Midlands Labour 0.20 Labour hold −12.9
5 Truro and Falmouth South West England Conservative 0.45 Conservative hold −13.2

UKIP[edit]

Rank[3] Constituency Region Winning party 2010 Swing
required (%)
Result Swing to
UKIP (±%)
1 Thanet South South East England Conservative 21.2 Conservative hold +18.4
2 Thurrock East of England Conservative 14.7 Conservative hold +13.7
3 Castle Point East of England Conservative (No candidate in 2010) Conservative hold (Vote share: 31.2%)
4 Boston and Skegness East of England Conservative 20.0 Conservative hold +15.0
5 Great Grimsby Yorkshire and the Humber Labour 13.3 Labour hold +5.9

Green Party[edit]

Swing for the Greens is measured as one-party swing, i.e. the change in the party's share of the vote.

Rank[4] Constituency Region Winning party 2010 Result Swing to
GRN (±%)
1 Norwich South East of England Liberal Democrats Labour gain −1.0
2 Bristol West South East England Liberal Democrats Labour gain +23.0
3 St Ives South West England Liberal Democrats Conservative gain +3.5
4 Sheffield Central Yorkshire and the Humber Labour Labour hold +12.1
5 Liverpool Riverside North West England Labour Labour hold +8.6

Opinion polling[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 Election 2015 Results 25,571,204 41.0% 31.6% 8.2% 14.1% 4.2% 0.9% 9.4%
30 Apr–1 May 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 978 36% 34% 10% 17% 4% <0.5% 2%
30 Apr 2015 Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
27–28 Apr 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 872 36% 36% 8% 12% 6% 2% Tied
25–27 Apr 2015 BMG/May2015.com 877 39% 31% 11% 15% 4% <0.5% 8%
24–26 Apr 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 870 37% 32% 9% 12% 8% 1% 5%
24–26 Apr 2015 ICM/The Guardian[6] 863 39% 32% 7% 15% 6% <0.5% 7%
24–25 Apr 2015 Survation/Mail on Sunday 879 36% 31% 9% 20% 4% <0.5% 5%
21–24 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,668 36% 33% 9% 15% 7% 1% 3%
22–23 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 1,072 36% 29% 10% 20% 5% <0.5% 7%
21–22 Apr 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 890 39% 34% 8% 11% 5% 3% 5%
17–19 Apr 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 863 36% 33% 9% 14% 5% 2% 3%
17–19 Apr 2015 ICM/The Guardian[6] 863 38% 35% 9% 12% 5% 1% 3%
16–17 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,655 38% 32% 9% 14% 6% 1% 6%
16–17 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 986 35% 34% 8% 18% 3% 1% 1%
16 Apr 2015 Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
12–15 Apr 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 600 35% 37% 8% 11% 8% 1% 2%
10–12 Apr 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 870 34% 36% 9% 14% 6% 1% 2%
10–12 Apr 2015 ICM/The Guardian[6] 900 41% 35% 7% 8% 8% 1% 6%
8–9 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,626 39% 35% 8% 12% 6% 1% 4%
8–9 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 838 33% 36% 9% 16% 5% 1% 3%
7–8 Apr 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 718 36% 35% 11% 13% 4% 1% 1%
2–3 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 856 34% 33% 9% 21% 3% <0.5% 1%
2–3 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,710 35% 34% 7% 15% 7% 1% 1%
2 Apr 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
28–29 Mar 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 864 38% 32% 9% 13% 6% 2% 6%
27–29 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 865 40% 34% 7% 11% 7% 1% 6%
26 Mar 2015 First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
24–25 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,690 35% 34% 9% 13% 7% <0.5% 1%
24–25 Mar 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 851 34% 34% 8% 20% 4% <0.5% Tied
20–22 Mar 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 864 38% 35% 8% 11% 7% 1% 3%
20–22 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 860 36% 33% 8% 14% 6% 2% 3%
20–21 Mar 2015 Survation/Mail on Sunday 861 31% 35% 10% 19% 3% 1% 4%
18–19 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,702 37% 33% 7% 14% 7% 1% 4%
13–15 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 863 34% 29% 8% 18% 9% 3% 5%
13–15 Mar 2015 ICM/The Guardian[6] 910 38% 37% 6% 11% 5% 3% 1%
10–12 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,654 35% 35% 7% 15% 7% <0.5% Tied
8–11 Mar 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 863 34% 37% 8% 14% 6% 1% 3%
6–8 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 859 36% 31% 5% 18% 9% 1% 5%
3–6 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,626 36% 33% 7% 15% 7% 3% 3%
27 Feb–1 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 860 36% 32% 8% 14% 7% 2% 4%
24–26 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,679 35% 36% 7% 14% 6% 1% 1%
23 Feb 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 921 30% 34% 10% 21% 3% 2% 4%
20–23 Feb 2015 ComRes/Daily Mail 865 36% 32% 7% 14% 9% 2% 4%
20–22 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 867 32% 38% 6% 13% 8% 2% 6%
17–20 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,704 36% 33% 7% 16% 7% 1% 3%
13–15 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 863 31% 31% 9% 18% 9% 3% Tied
13–15 Feb 2015 ICM/The Guardian[6] 860 38% 34% 7% 10% 8% 2% 4%
10–12 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,713 35% 35% 8% 15% 5% 1% Tied
8–10 Feb 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 844 38% 37% 7% 10% 8% 0% 1%
6–8 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 860 36% 31% 9% 16% 7% 1% 5%
3–6 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,947 33% 35% 7% 15% 8% 2% 2%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 857 34% 30% 8% 17% 10% 1% 4%
25 Jan 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 890 34% 30% 7% 25% 4% <0.5% 4%
23–25 Jan 2015 ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link] 852 33% 29% 9% 20% 8% 1% 4%
22–25 Jan 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 859 33% 34% 5% 17% 9% 2% 1%
16–19 Jan 2015 ICM/The Guardian[6] 863 32% 35% 8% 14% 10% 1% 3%
16–18 Jan 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 871 31% 27% 9% 17% 12% 4% 4%
11–13 Jan 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 854 35% 35% 8% 12% 8% 2% Tied
9–11 Jan 2015 Lord Ashcroft[5] 858 37% 29% 7% 17% 8% 2% 8%
12–16 Dec 2014 ICM/The Guardian[6] 861 31% 33% 11% 17% 5% 3% 2%
13–15 Dec 2014 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 840 36% 31% 9% 14% 10% 0% 5%
12–14 Dec 2014 ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link] 897 29% 34% 12% 17% 6% 2% 5%
5–7 Dec 2014 Lord Ashcroft[5] 860 31% 31% 7% 23% 6% 2% Tied
6 May 2010 General Election Results 25,085,097 39.6% 28.1% 24.2% 3.5% 1.0% 3.6% 11.5%

Endorsements[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Election 2015 Results England BBC News
  2. ^ "General Election 2015: Monday 13 April as it happened". Telegraph.co.uk. 13 April 2015. 
  3. ^ "Ukip target seats to secure a breakthrough in the 2015 general election". Mirror Online. 1 April 2015. Retrieved 12 May 2015. 
  4. ^ "Green Party's top target seats in the General Election if Natalie Bennett is to lead a breakthrough". Mirror Online. 2 April 2015. Retrieved 12 May 2015. 
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Lord Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. The England figures are based on a table that does not adjust for don't knows/refusers.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentages for England are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.