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{{Expand section|date=March 2012}}
{{main|Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries#Mid-March states}}
{{main|Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries#Mid-March states}}
From March 10-24, 12 contests allocating 308 bound-pledged delegates <!-- GU-6, MP-6, VI-6, KS-40, AL-47, MS-37, HI-17, AS-6, PR-20, IL-54, MO-49, and LA-20 (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/LA-R) per The Green Papers table: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Del.phtml --> are held, including 7 states and 5 [[Territories of the United States#Classification of current U.S. territories|unincorporated territories]]. This includes Louisiana which holds a primary to allocate 20 of its delegates to those candidates obtaining at least 25% of the primary vote, while 23 others will be allocated at caucuses on April 28.<br>
From March 10-24, 12 contests allocating 308 bound-pledged delegates <!-- GU-6, MP-6, VI-6, KS-40, AL-47, MS-37, HI-17, AS-6, PR-20, IL-54, MO-49, and LA-20 (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/LA-R) per The Green Papers table: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Del.phtml --> are held, including 7 states and 5 [[Territories of the United States]]. This includes Louisiana which holds a primary to allocate 20 of its delegates to those candidates obtaining at least 25% of the primary vote, while 23 others will be allocated at caucuses on April 28.<br>


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Revision as of 23:15, 21 March 2012

Template:Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012

The 2012 Republican presidential primaries are the selection processes in which voters of the Republican Party will choose their nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 presidential election. There are 2,286 delegates to be chosen.[1] A candidate must accumulate 1,144 delegate votes at the Republican National Convention to win.[2] It is the first presidential primary affected by a Supreme Court ruling that allowed unlimited fundraising for candidates through super PACs.

The primary contest began in 2011 with a fairly wide field. Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, had been preparing to run for president ever since the 2008 election [3] and the media narrative became: "who would be the anti-Romney candidate?"[4] Several candidates rose in the polls one after another during the year. But after the two first contests (Iowa and New Hampshire), the field was down to four candidates by March 2012: Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, U.S. Congressman Ron Paul, former Governor Mitt Romney and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum.

Santorum had been running a one-state campaign in Iowa, and he won the state with a handful of votes over Romney, who won New Hampshire and one congressional district in South Carolina with the rest of South Carolina's districts going to Gingrich. Three different Republican candidates won the first three contests (Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina). Santorum took his campaign national and carried four more states while Romney carried seven before Super Tuesday.

Super Tuesday primaries took place on March 6. With ten states voting and 419 delegates being allocated, it had only about half the potential impact of its 2008 predecessor. Romney won six states and Santorum won three, while Gingrich won his home state of Georgia. In Virginia, where only Romney and Paul were on the ballot, Paul won a congressional district.

After Super Tuesday, Romney maintained his edge in the delegate count. Santorum won the Kansas caucuses and the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, while Romney won Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Illinois[5] and three Pacific territories.

Schedule and process

The 2008 Republican National Convention decided that the 2012 primary schedule generally would be subject to the same rules as the 2008 delegate selection contests.[6] But on August 6, 2010, the Republican National Committee (RNC) adopted new rules for the timing of elections, with 103 votes in favor out of 144.[7] Under this plan, elections for delegates to the national convention were to be divided into three periods:[8]

  • February 1 – March 8, 2012: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina,
  • March 6–31, 2012: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates,
  • April 1, 2012, and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections.

Several states, most notably Florida, scheduled their contests earlier than prescribed. This pressured every traditional early state except Nevada to push back their contest into January. As a result of their violation of RNC rules, these states were penalized with a loss of half their delegates, including voting right for RNC delegates. Despite having early caucuses, Iowa, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri were not automatically penalized, because their contests do not bind national delegates until after the prescribed time period for the early voting states.[9]

The total base number of delegates allocated to each of the 50 U.S. states is 10 at-large delegates, plus 3 delegates per congressional district. In addition, fixed numbers of at-large delegates are allocated to Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands under the party's delegate selection rules.[10] States are awarded bonus delegates based on the following factors:[10]

  • Bonus delegates to each state that cast a majority of their Electoral College votes for the Grand Old Party (GOP) candidate in the 2008 presidential election
  • One bonus delegate for each GOP senator
  • One bonus delegate to each state that has a GOP majority in their delegation to the House of Representatives
  • One bonus delegate for each state that has a GOP governor
  • Bonus delegates for majorities in one or all of the chambers in their state legislature.

The two Republican National Committee members from each state and territory and the chairperson of the state's Republican Party are delegates unless the state is penalized for violating the RNC's scheduling rules. The individual states decide whether these delegates are bound or unbound.

Primary schedule

These tables shows how and when the National Convention delegates are allocated for the candidates. This means they do not include straw polls, primary or other kinds. And they do not include the dates for different local conventions where the bound delegates are personally elected or selected. The last tables show the local conventions from states with nonbinding entry level contests (an entry level contest is the state primary or caucuses where all Republican voters can participate). Notice that MP, GU, VI and MT's local conventions are their first and only contests.[11]

  • Date: This is the date where the delegates are bound to a candidate or the date where the first step to electing the delegates is taken. Some states have caucuses that stretch for more than one day. (Louisiana has two dates because the state has two first step elections, both a primary and caucuses)
  • State: In addition to the fifty state contests there are also five territorial contests and one federal district contest
  • There are three types of delegates. In this table they are listed by the way the candidates secure them, in a few states that is by the at-large state vote even though the individual delegates are selected on the district level.
    • (RNC) Three delegates: 2 members of the Republican National Committee and the state party chairperson from each non-penalized state. 11 states bind these delegates to the at-large state result; the rest are unbound.
    • (AL) Delegates elected At-Large in the state or territory
    • (CD) Delegates elected in each Congressional District
  • Contest type: There are two types: Caucus and Primary, which are regulated in many different ways in the local states.
  • Bound delegates: These pledged delegates are legally bound to vote for a candidate for at least the first ballot at the National Convention. All 3 types of delegates can be bound, depending on the local state rules.
  • Unbound delegates: There are 120 RNC delegates that are free to vote for any candidate they like, and the candidates are free to woo them. [12] Up to 340 AL and CD delegates are unbound (unpledged). They are elected at conventions through the land, and the candidates work to get as many of their supporters to join these conventions through caucus and primaries in the respective states.[13]
  • Delegate allocation: It can be the same on both the state and district level or it can be different. The 2012 election has more proportionally-allocated contests than the 2008 election.
    • Winner-take-all. In some state and districts this method will not be used unless one candidate gets a majority of all the votes. States may use winner-take-all and allocate delegates by CD (congressional district), in which case different CDs may go to different candidates. States may use winner-take-all allocation and allocate all delegates at large, in which case the state delegation as a whole is winner-take-all.
    • Proportional. Most states that elect delegates proportionally have thresholds that candidates must meet to be given delegates; these thresholds range from 10% to 25% percent of the votes. But a few states that elect delegates proportionally have no such threshold.
    • Loophole. The original advisory preference/delegate selection type of primary, where the voters vote for the candidate in an advisory primary and separately vote for a candidate slate. So even though the delegates technically are unbound, they will, by using the loophole, become practically bound to a candidate.[14]
    • Convention. If the national convention delegates are unbound or they are not bound at the first caucuses held in the state, the state convention is where they get elected. The dates for these local conventions are shown in brackets. For contests in some small territories or states, the caucus can be the convention.
    • Committee. The date the local state committee elects delegates is in brackets.
  • Secured delegates: There are two ways to secure a delegate for a candidate. The delegate can be legally bound to a candidate via the state contest, or the delegate can personally commit to support a candidate. The unbound delegates (Superdelegates) fall into four categories: 120 unbound party leaders [12] (shown in brackets), 212 unbound delegates allocated at conventions, 3 uncommitted delegates and 2 delegates that were allocated to Huntsman but are now unbound.[15][16] The last colum (uncom.) lists all delegates that have still not committed themselve to a candidate, one way or another. That includes RNC delegates, delegates elected as uncommitted, unbound elected delegates, delegates elected as bound, but now released from their candidate and delegates not yet allocated or elected.

Contests

For each state, click on the 'Contest type' to go to its Wikipedia page for details. The last column here lists uncommitted delegates.
To sort in descending order the total, bound, and unbound delegates, click twice on the triangles above the columns.

State delegation Delegate status Secured delegates (+unbound RNC delegates)
Date State RNC AL CD Total Contest type Unbound Bound Allocation Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul Uncom.
Jan 3 Iowa
3
13
12
28
Caucus (nonbinding)
28
0
Convention (AL)
Convention (CD)
(+1)
(+1)
25 (+1)
Jan 10
New Hampshire#
0
12
0
12
Primary (semi-closed)
0
12
Proportional (AL)
(No CD Allocation)
7
3
Jan 21 South Carolina#
0
11
14
25
Primary (open)
0
25
Winner-take-all (AL)
Winner-take-all (CD)
2
23
Jan 31 Florida#
0
50
0
50
Primary (closed)
0
50
Winner-take-all (AL)
(No CD allocation)
50 Disp.
Feb 4 Nevada
3
25
0
28
Caucus (binding)
0
28
Proportional (AL)
(No CD Allocation)
14
3
6
5
Feb 7 Colorado
3
12
21
36
Caucus (nonbinding)
36
0
Convention (AL)
Convention (CD)
33 (+3)
Minnesota
3
13
24
40
Caucus (nonbinding)
40
0
Convention (AL) a
Convention (CD)
(+1)
37 (+2)
Error in Template:Date table sorting: 'Feb. 4–11' is an invalid date Maine
3
15
6
24
Caucus (nonbinding)
24
0
Convention (AL)
Convention (CD)
(+2)
21 (+1)
Feb 28 Arizona#
0
29
0
29
Primary (closed)
0
29
Winner-take-all (AL)
(No CD allocation)
29 Disp.
Michigan#
0
2
28
30
Primary (open)
0
30
Winner-take-all (AL)
Winner-take-all (CD)
16
14
Error in Template:Date table sorting: 'Feb. 11–29' is an invalid date Wyoming
3
14
12d
29
Caucus (nonbinding)
4
25
Convention (AL)
Convention (CD)
7 (+1)
3
1
15 (+2)
Mar 3 Washington
3
10
30
43
Caucus (nonbinding)
3
40
Convention (AL)
Convention (CD)
40 (+3)
Mar 6 Alaska
3
24
0
27
Caucus (binding)
3
24
Proportional (AL)
(No CD Allocation)
8
7
3
6
(+3)
Georgia
3
31
42
76
Primary (open)
0
76
Proportional (AL)
Proportional (CD)
21
3
52
Idaho
3
29
0
32
Caucus (binding)
0
32
Winner-take-all (AL)
(No CD Allocation)
32
Massachusetts
3
38
0
41
Primary (semi-closed)
3
38
Proportional (AL)
(No CD Allocation)
38 (+2)
(+1)
North Dakota
3
25
0
28
Caucus (binding)
0
28
Proportional (AL)b
(No CD Allocation)
7
11
2
8
Ohio
3
15
48
66
Primary (semi-closed)
3
63
Proportional (AL)b
Winner-take-all (CD)b
38
21
4 (+3)
Oklahoma
3
25
15
43
Primary (closed)
3
40
Proportional (AL)
Proportional(CD)
13
14
13
(+3)
Tennessee
3
28
27
58
Primary (open)
3
55
Proportional (AL)
Proportional(CD)
16
29
10
(+3)
Vermont
3
11
3
17
Primary (open)
0
17
Proportional (AL)
Winner-take-all (CD)
9
4
4
Virginia
3
13
33
49
Primary (open)
3
46
Winner-take-all (AL)
Winner-take-all (CD)
43
3
(+3)
Mar 10 Kansas
3
25
12
40
Caucus (binding)
0
40
Proportional (AL)
Winner-take-all (CD)
7
33
Guam
3
6
0
9
Caucus (nonbinding)
9
0
Convention
6 (+3)
Northern Mariana Is.
3
6
0
9
Caucus (nonbinding)
9
0
Convention
6 (+3)
U.S. Virgin Islands
3
6
0
9
Caucus (binding)e
5
4
Convention
4 (+3)
1
1
Mar 13 Alabama
3
26
21
50
Primary (open)
3
47
Proportional (AL)
Proportional (CD)
12
22
13
(+3)
American Samoa
3
6
0
9
Caucus (binding)
3
6
Convention
6 (+3)
Hawaii
3
11
6
20
Caucus (binding)
3
17
Proportional (AL)
Proportional (CD)
9
5
3
(+3)
Mississippi
3
25
12
40
Primary (open)
3
37
Proportional (AL)
Proportional (CD)
12 (+1)
13
12
(+2)
Mar 18 Puerto Rico
3
20
0
23
Primary (open)
3
20
Winner-take-all
20 (+3)
Mar 20 Illinois
3
12
54
69
Primary (semi-closed)
15
54
Convention (AL)
Loophole (CD) b
42 (+2)
12
66 (+1)
Error in Template:Date table sorting: 'Mar. 15–24' is an invalid date Missouri [17]
3
25
24
52
Caucus (nonbinding)
3
49
Convention (AL)
Convention (CD)
49 (+3)
Mar 24 Louisianaf
0
20
0
20
Primary (closed)
0
20
Proportional (AL)
20
Apr 3 Maryland
3
10
24
37
Primary (closed)
0
37
Winner-take-all (AL)
Winner-take-all (CD)
37
Washington, D.C.
3
16
0
19
Primary (closed)
3
16
Winner-take-all
(+1)
16 (+2)
Wisconsin
3
15
24
42
Primary (open)
0
41
Winner-take-all (AL)
Winner-take-all (CD)
41
Apr 24 Connecticut
3
10
15
28
Primary (closed)
3
25
Proportional (AL)c
Winner-take-all (CD)
25 (+3)
Delaware
3
14
0
17
Primary (closed)
0
17
Winner-take-all (AL)
(No CD allocation)
17
New York
3
34
58
95
Primary (closed)
3
92
Proportional (AL)c
Winner-take-all(CD)
(+1)
92 (+2)
Pennsylvania
3
10
59
72
Primary (closed)
13
59
Committee (AL)
Loophole (CD)
(+1)
69 (+2)
Rhode Island
3
0
16
19
Primary (semi-closed)
3
16
(No AL Allocation)
Proportional (CD)
(+2)
16 (+1)
Apr 28 Louisianaf
3
5
18
26
Caucus (nonbinding)
26
0
Convention (Al)
Convention (CD)
23 (+3)
May 8 Indiana
3
16
27
46
Primary (open)
19
27
Convention (AL)
Winner-take-all (CD)
(+1)
43 (+2)
North Carolina
3
52
0
55
Primary (semi-closed)
3
52
Proportional (AL)
(No CD Allocation)
52 (+3)
West Virginia
3
19
9
31
Primary (semi-closed)
3
28
Proportional (AL)
Proportional(CD)
(+2)
28 (+1)
May 15 Oregon
3
25
0
28
Primary (closed)
3
25
Proportional (AL)
(No CD Allocation)
25 (+3)
May 22 Arkansas
3
21
12
36
Primary (open)
3
33
Proportional (AL)
Proportional(CD)c
33 (+3)
Kentucky
3
24
18
45
Primary (closed)
3
42
Proportional (AL)
Proportional(CD)
42 (+3)
May 29 Texas [18]
3
44
108
155
Primary (open)
3
152
Proportional (AL)
Proportional(CD)
152 (+3)
Jun 5 California
3
10
159
172
Primary (closed)
3
169
Winner-take-all (AL)
Winner-take-all (CD)
169 (+3)
New Jersey
3
47
0
50
Primary (semi-closed)
0
50
Winner-take-all (AL)
(No CD allocation)
50
New Mexico
3
11
9
23
Primary (closed)
3
20
Proportional (AL)
Proportional(CD)
20 (+3)
South Dakota
3
25
0
28
Primary (closed)
3
25
Proportional (AL)
(No CD Allocation)
25 (+3)
Error in Template:Date table sorting: 'Jun. 1–10' is an invalid date Nebraska
3
23
9
35
Caucus (nonbinding)
3
32
Convention (AL)
Convention (CD)
32 (+3)
Error in Template:Date table sorting: 'Jun. 14–16' is an invalid date Montana
3
23
0
26
Caucus (nonbinding)g
26
0
Convention (AL)
(No CD Allocation)
(+1)
23 (+2)
Jun 26 Utah
3
37
0
40
Primary (semi-closed)
0
40
Winner-take-all (AL)
(No CD allocation)
40

Notes

# The state is penalized for breaking RNC schedule guidelines. The penalty cuts the delegation number in half and removes voting privileges from the party leader delegates.
a The state, district or territory convention can vote to bind its delegates.
b Delegates are morally but not legally bound to a candidate.
c If any candidate receives more than 50% of the votes it becomes a Winner-take-all contest.
d Wyoming has only one congressional district, but the 12 CD delegates are elected in the 23 counties that are paired together.
e Delegates from the Virgin Islands are legally bound if they are elected as pledged to a candidate.
f Louisiana has both a primary and caucus to allocate its delegates. The state committee selects 5 out of the 25 At-Large delegates as unbound.
g Montana's caucus is its convention. The delegates to this caucus are selected by the counties' central committees at least 10 days before the date of state convention.

Convention states

182 of the 374 delegates in the states voting before Super Tuesday and 110 delegates from the states voting after Super Tuesday are allocated and/or elected at local conventions. These tables shows the dates of these conventions and the projections of 3 reliable sources (AP,[19] CNN[20] and The Green Papers[21]).

Delegate election in early convention states
Iowa Colorado Minnesota Maine Wyoming Washington
AL delegates 13 12 13 15 14 10
CD delegates 12 21 24 6 12 30
Number of CDs 4 7 8 2 1 (23 counties) 10
State convention June 6 April 14 May 14–15 May 5–6 April 12–14 May 30 to Jun. 2
CD convention June 6 Mar. 29 to Apr. 13 April 14–21 May 5–6 March 6–10 (counties) May 30 to Jun. 2
Projection: AP CNN
GP
AP CNN
GP
AP CNN
GP
AP CNN
GP
AP CNN
GP
AP CNN
GP
Newt Gingrich - 2 4 - 2 4 - 1 4 - - 1 - 1 2 - - 4
Ron Paul - 7 6 - 1 4 - 9 10 10 7 8 - 6 6 5 8 10
Mitt Romney 12 7 6 9 13 12 - 2 6 11 9 8 - 10 10 30 25 16
Rick Santorum 13 7 6 18 17 13 37 25 17 - 3 4 - 9 8 5 7 10
  • Wyoming elects its CD delegates in the counties.[22]
Delegate election in late convention states
Illinois Missouri Pennsylvania Louisiana Indiana Nebraska
AL delegates 12 25 10 5 16 23
CD delegates 0 24 0 18 0 9
Number of CDs 18 8 18 6 9 3
State convention June 18-19 June 2 June 1 June 2 June 8-9 July 14
CD convention n/a April 21 n/a June 2 n/a July 14
Projection: AP CNN
GP
AP CNN
GP
AP CNN
GP
AP CNN
GP
AP CNN
GP
AP CNN
GP
Newt Gingrich - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ron Paul - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Mitt Romney - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Rick Santorum - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Results

Candidate Current office Home state Bound delegates[23] Super delegates [24] Projected delegates[25]
Popular vote[26] States – first place States – second place States – third place

Mitt
Romney
Former Governor Massachusetts
459
32
558
4,070,110
(40.4%)
16
Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wyoming
Territories: American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico
8
Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri(p), Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee
Territories: U.S. Virgin Islands
4
Alabama, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Dakota

Rick
Santorum
Former U.S. Senator Pennsylvania
195
2
252
2,758,186
(27.4%)
10
Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri(p), North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee
9
Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio, Wyoming
Territories: Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico
6
Florida, Georgia, Maine, South Carolina, Vermont, Washington
Territories: U.S. Virgin Islands

Newt
Gingrich
Former U.S. House Speaker Virginia
135
2
155
2,182,075
(21.7%)
2
Georgia, South Carolina
4
Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, Nevada
6
Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee

Ron
Paul
U.S. Representative Texas
34
1
78
1,068,148
(10.6%)
0
Territories: U.S. Virgin Islands
7
Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, Washington
10
Alaska, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri(p), Nevada, Wyoming
Territories: Northern Mariana Islands
2012 Republican primary results by county

Timeline of the race

The primary contest takes place from January 3 to July 14 and will elect 2,286 voting delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention in the week of August 27. To become the Republican Party's nominee for the 2012 presidential election a candidate needs a majority of 1,144 delegates to vote for him. The 2012 race is significantly different from earlier races. Many states have switched from their old winner-take-all allocation to proportional allocation. Many remaining winner-take-all states are allocating delegates to both the winner of each congressional district and the winner of the state. The change was made to prolong the race, giving lesser known candidates a chance and making it harder for a frontrunner to secure the majority early. It was also hoped that this change in the election system would energize the base of the party. [27][28] Most of the candidates started their campaigns in the summer of 2011, but after the two first primaries only 4 major campaigns remained. They try to gather candidates from the following 3 groups:

  • 1954 bound delegates are allocated to the candidates at caucuses and primaries or later at local conventions. 3 of these were elected as uncommitted and 2 were allocated to Huntsman but became unbound.[29]
  • 212 unbound elected delegates cannot commit themselves to any candidate before they are elected as National Convention Delegates at their local conventions. [30]
  • 120 unbound RNC delegates attend the convention by virtue of their position. The rest of the party leaders will attend as bound or nonvoting delegates.
Tim Pawlenty presidential campaign, 2012Thaddeus McCotter presidential campaign, 2012Herman Cain presidential campaign, 2012Gary Johnson presidential campaign, 2012Michele Bachmann presidential campaign, 2012Jon Huntsman presidential campaign, 2012Rick Perry presidential campaign, 2012Buddy Roemer presidential campaign, 2012Rick Santorum presidential campaign, 2012Mitt Romney presidential campaign, 2012Ron Paul presidential campaign, 2012Newt Gingrich presidential campaign, 2012

The race for a majority of National Convention Delegates can be broken up into groups of state contests:

  • Early states: 12 states with 374 delegates.
    • 240 bound delegates, 66 of these are allocated later. (two allocated to Huntsman are unbound)
    • 116 unbound elected delegates, all elected later.
    • 18 unbound RNC delegates.
  • Super Tuesday: 10 states with 437 delegates.
    • 419 bound delegates.
    • 18 unbound RNC delegates.
  • Mid-March primaries: 6½ states and 5 territories with 350 delegates. (Louisiana have a primary in March)
    • 296 bound delegates. 49 of these are allocated later. (two delegate from Virgin Islands was elected as uncommitted)
    • 24 unbound elected delegates, 12 of these are elected later.
    • 30 unbound RNC delegates.
      • 12 bound delegates from early states are allocated. (Wyoming CD, one delegate was elected as uncommitted)
  • April primaries: 7½ states and D.C. with 355 delegates (Louisiana have cacuses in April)
    • 304 bound delegates.
    • 33 unbound elected delegates, all elected later.
    • 18 unbound RNC delegates.
      • 38 bound delegates from earlier contests are allocated. (Wyoming AL and Missouri CD)
      • 57 unbound delegates from earlier contests are elected. (Minnesota CD and Colorado AL/CD)
  • May primaries: 7 states with 396 delegates.
    • 359 bound delegates.
    • 16 unbound elected delegates, all elected later.
    • 21 unbound RNC delegates.
      • 40 bound delegates from earlier contests are allocated. (Washington State AL/CD)
      • 34 unbound delegates from earlier contests are elected. (Minnesota AL and Maine AL/CD)
  • June primaries: 7 states with 374 delegates.
    • 336 bound delegates, 32 of these are allocated July 14. (Nebraska AL/CD)
    • 23 unbound elected delegates.
    • 15 unbound RNC delegates.
      • 25 bound delegates from Mid-March are allocated. (Missouri AL)
      • 86 unbound delegates from earlier contests are elected. (Illinois AL, Indiana AL, Iowa AL/CD, Louisiana AL/CD and Pennsylvania AL)

The beginning

Herman Cain surged to the top of the polls in October 2011. He ended his campaign December 3, 2011, after media reports of alleged sexual misconduct surfaced.

The start of the 2012 Republican race for president was shaped by the 13 presidential debates of 2011 beginning on May 5. Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer, both former Governors, were left out of most of the debates, leading to complaints of bias.[31] On December 28, 2011, Johnson withdrew to seek the Libertarian Party nomination and on February 23, 2012, Roemer withdrew to seek the Reform Party and the Americans Elect nomination.

Two candidates from the 2008 presidential primaries, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, ran again in the 2012 primary campaign. Mitt Romney was an early frontrunner, and he maintained a careful, strategic campaign that centered on being an establishment candidate. In the summer of 2011 he had a lead in polls with the support of much of the Republican electorate.[32] However, his lead over the Republican field was precarious, owing to the entry of new candidates who drew considerable media attention. First congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota started her campaign in June and surged in the polls after winning the Ames Straw Poll in August, but she lost some of the momentum when Texas Governor Rick Perry shortly after he was drafted by strong national Republican support. He performed strongly in polls, immediately becoming a serious contender.[33] But he lost the momentum following poor performances in the September debates. As the third opponent to Romney's lead Herman Cain surged after the sixth debate on September 22. In November Cain's viability as a candidate was seriously jeopardized after several allegations of sexual harassment surfaced in the media, and he suspended his campaign on December 3, 2011, despite his unyielding denials of any misconduct.

In November as Herman Cain's campaign was stumbling former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich asserted himself as the fourth leading opponent to Romney.[34] It was a comeback for Gingrich after his campaign had suffered under serious staff problems just weeks after he had entered the race in May.[35] But in the few weeks before the Iowa caucus, Gingrich's lead quickly began to evaporate. Iowans were bombarded with over $4.4 million in negative advertising on Gingrich from super PACs sympathetic to Mitt Romney and others.[36][37] So on the eve of the Iowa Caucus, the first contest, there was no clear and strong frontrunner.

Early states

In 2012 there were 12 state contests along with Missouri's nonbinding primary before Super Tuesday. Half of these contests allocated delegates to the candidates while the other half was entry level caucuses that elected delegates to the next political level in the state party. The delegates elected to the highest level (the state and/or the district convention) in the state will caucus to elect delegates to the National Convention.

Results from the early states
Candidates: Newt
Gingrich
Ron
Paul
Mitt
Romney
Rick
Santorum
Rick
Perry
Jon
Huntsman
Michele
Bachmann
Jan. 3 Iowa 13% 21% 25% 25% 10% 1% 5%
Jan. 10 New Hampshire 9%
23%
39% 9% 1% 17%
Jan. 21 South Carolina 40% 13% 28% 17%
Jan. 31 Florida 32% 7% 46% 13%
Feb. 4 Nevada 21% 19% 50% 10%
Feb. 7 Colorado 13% 12% 35% 40%
Missouri (P) 12% 25% 55%
Minnesota 11% 27% 17% 45%
Feb. 4–11 Maine 6% 36% 38% 18%
Feb. 28 Arizona 16% 8% 47% 27%
Michigan 7% 12% 41% 38%
Feb. 11–29 Wyoming 8% 21% 39% 32%
Mar. 3 Washington 10% 25% 38% 24%
Michele Bachmann suspended her campaign on January 4 after ending up sixth in the Iowa caucus.
Jon Huntsman invested heavily in New Hampshire. After finishing third, he suspended his campaign on January 16.
Rick Perry suspended his campaign on January 19 after getting fifth place in Iowa and last in New Hampshire.

Santorum spent months in Iowa, traveling to all 99 counties and holding some 381 town hall meetings.[38] This one state campaign succeeded when he tied with Romney in the Iowa Caucuses on January 3. This first in the nation caucus propelled him into a national campaign while it ended Michele Bachmann's campaign. On the night of the caucuses, Romney was reported the winner of Iowa by only eight votes over Santorum,[39] but after the results were certified, Santorum was given the win, beating Romney by 34 votes, despite the results from 8 districts being lost.[40]

Newt Gingrich said after Iowa that his positive campaign had been a weakness, and had allowed his rivals to gain the upper hand through negative attacks.[41]
Mitt Romney easily won the next contest in New Hampshire being allocated seven of the state's delegates to the Republican National Convention, while Ron Paul was allocated three and Jon Huntsman two. Romney's win in New Hampshire was seen as a given; he had persistently showed popularity in that state, but rivals were intensely fighting for a second-place finish there.[42] Jon Huntsman, Jr., a moderate, had staked his candidacy on New Hampshire and invested heavily in at least a strong second place showing. But after 150 campaign events in the state he ended third after Paul. Both he and Rick Perry dropped out of the race shortly before voting day in South Carolina.

Romney was expected to virtually clinch the nomination with a win in South Carolina, but Gingrich, who is from neighboring Georgia, waged an aggressive and successful campaign winning all but one of the states congressional districts."[43] Gingrich victory in South Carolina together with two strong debate performances gave him a second surge, opening the race to a longer and more unpredictable campaign.

Romney did regain some of his momentum and won the Florida primary and got allocated 50 delegates in this winner-take-all contest. He also won the Nevada caucuses several days later with a narrow majority of the votes. He was allocated 14 of the state's delegates, while Gingrich got 6, Paul 5 and Santorum 3.

However, the race shifted again on February 7, when Santorum swept the contests in Missouri (which did not allocate delegates), Minnesota and Colorado, making a case for himself as the anti-Romney candidate and disrupting Romney's narrative as the unstoppable frontrunner.[44]

Following his victories on February 7, Santorum received a huge boost in momentum as conservatives seeking an alternative to Romney began leaving Gingrich for Santorum. Numerous polls taken after Santorum's victories showed him either leading Romney nationally or close behind.[45][46][47][48][49] To regain momentum Romney shelved his "no straw polls" policy and actively campaigned to win the CPAC straw poll, which he won with 38% to Santorums 31%.[50] He also campaigned in Maine, beating Ron Paul by only three percentage points.
Regaining momentum Romney won the Arizona Republican primary, the Wyoming caucuses and the Washington caucuses. The candidates campaigned heavily in Michigan, and even though Romney won the state vote he only won 7 out of 14 congressional districts, the rest went to Santorum. The two delegates allocated at-large in the state was before the election reported to be given proportionally but after the election the Michigan GOP announced there had been an error in the memo published and that the two delegates would be given to the winner, sparking accusations of Romney rigging the results from Santorum's team.[51]

After 12 contests the GOP field for the presidential nomination was still wide open.

The state of the race on the eve of Super Tuesday
Candidates: Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Ron Paul
Elected bound delegates 118 29 17 8
Pledged superdelegates 19 3 2 1
Popular vote
(not counting Missouri)
1,789,941
(42.4%)
990,544
(23.5%)
959,225
(22.7%)
480,699
(11.4%)

Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday is the name for March 6, 2012, the day on which the largest simultaneous number of state presidential primary elections was held in the United States. The 2012 edition of Super Tuesday, with 10 states allocating 419 delegates (18.3% of the total), was considerably smaller than the 2008 edition, when 21 states allocated 901 delegates (41.5% of the total).[52] In 2012 delegates were allocated in primaries in seven states and their sixty five congressional districts together with caucuses in three states, totaling 419 bound delegates.[53] 18 additional RNC superdelegates from the states are not bound by the voting result.

Super Tuesday results
Candidates: Newt
Gingrich
Ron
Paul
Mitt
Romney
Rick
Santorum
States won 1 0 6 3
Districts won (not ID, ND and AK) 13 1 33 18
Delegates won (OH-4 unalloc.) [54] 80 21 225 89
Popular vote 836,903
(23%)
419,800
(11%)
1,406,599
(38%)
998,762
(27%)
Alaska 14% 24% 33% 29%
Georgia 47% 6% 26% 20%
Idaho 2% 18% 62% 18%
Massachusetts 5% 10% 72% 12%
North Dakota 8% 28% 24% 40%
Ohio 15% 9% 38% 37%
Oklahoma 27% 10% 28% 34%
Tennessee 24% 9% 28% 37%
Vermont 8% 25% 40% 24%
Virginia 40% 60%

Mid-March primaries

From March 10-24, 12 contests allocating 308 bound-pledged delegates are held, including 7 states and 5 Territories of the United States. This includes Louisiana which holds a primary to allocate 20 of its delegates to those candidates obtaining at least 25% of the primary vote, while 23 others will be allocated at caucuses on April 28.

Mid-March results
Candidates: Newt
Gingrich
Ron
Paul
Mitt
Romney
Rick
Santorum
States or territories won 0 0 7 3
Districts won (not territories) 2 0 4 11
Delegates won 24 4 123 81
Popular vote -
(-%)
-
(-%)
-
(-%)
-
(-%)
Mar. 10 Kansas 14% 13% 21% 51%
Guam 0% 0% 100% 0%
Northern Mariana Islands 3% 3% 87% 6%
U.S. Virgin Islands 5% 29% 26% 6%
Mar. 13 Alabama 29% 5% 29% 35%
American Samoa % % n/a% %
Hawaii 11% 19% 45% 25%
Mississippi 31% 4% 31% 33%
Mar. 18 Puerto Rico 2% 1% 83% 8%
Mar. 20 Illinois 8% 9% 47% 35%
Mar. 15–24 Missouri % % % %
Mar. 24 Louisiana % % % %

Next primaries

Ongoing until March 24: Missouri caucuses
Saturday, March 24: Louisiana. (In addition, a finalizing caucus will be held April 28.)

See also

References

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  2. ^ "2012 Republican Convention ('GOP Delegate Count' table)". Democratic Convention Watch. Retrieved January 3, 2012.
  3. ^ Martin, Jonathan (June 29, 2009). "Mitt Romney's team awaits 2012". Politico. Retrieved June 29, 2009.
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  16. ^ "Unbound RNC delegate List". Democratic Convention Watch. Retrieved March 13, 2012.
  17. ^ Dates for some Mo. presidential caucuses changed, St. Louis Post-Dispatch February 20, 2012
  18. ^ URGENT - Primary Election Update, TexasGOP - Republican Party of Texas (March 1, 2012)
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  26. ^ Cite error: The named reference autogenerated1 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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  33. ^ "GOP Primary: Perry 29%, Romney 18%, Bachmann 13%". Rasmussen Reports. August 16, 2011. Retrieved September 14, 2011.
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  35. ^ FoxNews.com (June 9, 2011). "Top Gingrich aides resign, leaving campaign in question". Fox News. Retrieved June 9, 2011.
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  54. ^ "Ohio Republican". Thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2012-03-12.

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