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2008 United States presidential election

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Template:Future election

Presidential electoral votes by state

The United States presidential election of 2008 will be held on November 4, 2008. The election will determine electors for the United States Electoral College, and whichever presidential candidate receives a majority of votes in the Electoral College (at least 270) will be the 44th president of the United States. If no candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College then the president-elect is selected by a vote of the House of Representatives.

As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be partially based on the 2000 Census. The president-elect will be inaugurated on Tuesday, January 20, 2009.

2008 presidential election characteristics

First election without incumbents in 80 years

When an American President leaves office, more often than not his Vice President is considered the heir apparent to replace him, at least in the eyes of his political party.

In the three most recent presidential administrations featuring an outgoing, two-term president (those of Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton), the incumbent vice president has immediately thereafter run for president (Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election).

In the 1968 election, Lyndon Johnson, at first, decided to seek re-election. He entered the New Hampshire primary and won, but later (in a nationally televised speech) indicated that he would not seek re-election. Incumbent Vice President Hubert Humphrey then chose to run and was the eventual Democratic nominee.

All other recent vice presidents, such as Dan Quayle and Walter Mondale have also run for president at various times. Mondale succeeded his president, the one-term Jimmy Carter, as his party's candidate but Quayle was unsuccessful.

The current Vice President of the United States, Dick Cheney, announced in 2001 that he would never run for president, a statement he re-iterated in 2004. While appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve." [1] The 2008 race, therefore, will likely be a non-incumbent or "open seat" election in which neither the sitting President nor the sitting Vice President will be a candidate.

The 2008 race will be the first time since 1928 (80 years) that neither the sitting president nor the sitting vice president will enter a state caucus or primary and run for president. This was almost (but not quite) the case in the more recent Presidential contest in 1952. In the general election that year, the race was between Republican candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson; earlier that year, sitting President Harry S Truman had entered the New Hampshire primary in an attempt to seek re-election. He lost to Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver and abandoned his campaign. Also in 1952, Vice President Alben Barkley sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination.

"The most expensive election in American history"

In January 2007, Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner stated that the 2008 U.S. presidential race will be "the most expensive election in American history." [3] Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election," and that to be "taken seriously," a candidate will need to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.

"Call it a $100 million entry fee," Toner said. [4]

The reported cost of campaigning for President has risen significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for both Democrats and Republicans campaigns are added together (for the Presidential primary election, general election, and the political conventions) the costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in 1996, $649.5 million in 2000, and $1,016.5 million in 2004). [5]

Timeline

Main article: U.S. presidential election, 2008 timeline

Early stages

Candidates began to emerge during 2006, where the first cattle calls were held and at least two straw polls were taken. In 2007, because of the long lead time for fundraising and because Federal election laws require the reporting of funds raised for the primary elections, fundraising began in earnest.

As pre-primary season unfolds, media will likely anoint front-runners on the basis of reported fund-raising totals. For example, the media treated Howard Dean as the front-runner going into the 2004 cycle, although he was initially considered by some to be a long shot. (Dean was in fact defeated for the Democratic nomination, withdrawing prior to Super Tuesday.)

There will be series of events sponsored by the different parties during 2007, including debates, straw polls, and other events designed to give voters a chance to get to know the candidates. The Democrats, for example, are hosting a series of candidate forums and debates in Nevada, beginning with a forum on February 21, as well as hosting a debate in South Carolina on April 26.

The Republican Party is also planning events for the candidates, such as a televised debate in South Carolina on May 15 and the traditional Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on August 11. In 1999, a number of candidates that fared poorly in the straw poll dropped out of the race for the 2000 nomination.

Official primary caucus election dates

Delegates to national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, including 2004, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries, because the leading candidates had collected enough committed delegates to win in the national convention. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

Democratic primaries and caucuses

New Hampshire officials have stated that by state law, theirs must be the first primary in the nation and must precede any similar contest by at least seven days, and thus, the state may not abide by DNC approved dates. The DNC has threatened to withhold NH delegates if the state moves the primary earlier than the 22nd.[4]

Republican primaries and caucuses

Later events

Potential candidates

With the midterm elections over, politicians with ambition have begun to formally express their desire for the presidency in the form of “exploratory committees” which will allow the hopeful to raise money and travel without having to follow certain financial restrictions mandated by federal law.

With official events, such as candidate forums and official debates, beginning as early as February, 2007, the status of a candidate will be based on whether or not he or she is invited. Several minor candidates in the past have tried to litigate their way in, and while this has generated publicity, it has not ever generated support.

Prior to the onset of these debates, other criteria are used and are listed below. At this early stage, many of the strongest candidates might have yet to emerge, and these lists include a few politicians who excite speculation among political activists, insiders, media commentators and political junkies.

Conditions for listing a candidate

As stated above, the election is currently in its early stages and candidates are not yet official.

  1. Private Official Campaign Web Site, Required Data
    1. Private web page (non-free web page)
    2. Statement of FEC Status
    3. Valid current contact information (name, address, telephone, non-free email)
    4. Date and place of birth
    5. Intent of ballot placement or write-in status.
    6. Current list of Registration for write-in status

FEC - FEC Registered Candidate.
FEC-Other - FEC Registered Candidate, other election.
Non-FEC - Non-FEC Registered Candidate

Democratic Party

Main article: Official and Potential 2008 United States presidential election Democratic candidates

Official candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Democratic Party:

Candidates who have formed exploratory committees:

Candidates who have expressed serious interest:

Republican Party

Main article: Official and Potential 2008 United States presidential election Republican candidates

Official candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Republican Party:

Candidates who have formed exploratory committees:

Candidates who have expressed serious interest:

Third parties

Main article: Official and potential 2008 United States presidential election third party candidates

Constitution Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Constitution Party (United States):

Green Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Green Party:

Libertarian Party

Official candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Libertarian Party:

Announced candidates:

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy:

Prohibition Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Prohibition Party:

Reform Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Reform Party: None yet.

Socialist Party USA

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Socialist Party USA:

Independents

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008

Possible electoral college changes

In 2006, Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-VA) introduced the " DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act of 2006" in the U.S. House. If enacted, the act would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by 1. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the District of Columbia. But the bill also grants, for partisan balancing, an additional House seat to Utah, and increases Utah's electoral votes by 1, since Utah is likely to vote Republican and the District of Columbia is likely to vote Democratic. However, this will only be valid until the next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all other seats. The District of Columbia's electoral vote count would remain unchanged at 3, as required by the 23rd amendment. The likely effect of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate: Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote. Even though the size of the electoral college would increase to 539, a candidate would still need 270 electoral votes to win.

Also, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is a proposed agreement between states in the United States dealing with their allocation of electoral votes. This interstate compact would effectively shift the method of election of the President of the United States to a national popular vote system. By the terms of the compact, states agree to give all of their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner, regardless of the balance of votes in their own states. The compact would only go into effect once it was joined by states representing a majority of the electoral college.

References

  1. ^ Transcript: Vice President Cheney on 'FOX News Sunday'. Fox News Sunday. February 7, 2005. Retrieved November 14, 2006
  2. ^ Arkansas Act 501 of 2005 [1]
  3. ^ a b California Election Code, Section 1202. [2]
  4. ^ http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Obama+heads+to+NH&articleId=09d9da71-0d44-4a9c-970d-306ec03d09a1
  5. ^ Gambrill, Jon (November 28, 2006). "Wesley Clark wants to avoid '04 mistake in '08". Associated Press. Retrieved 2006-11-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  6. ^ Yen, Hope (November 19, 2006). "Kerry: Botched Joke Won't Affect 2008". Associated Press. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  7. ^ Massey, Barry (November 17, 2006). "N.M. Gov Pleads Illegal Immigrant's Case". Associated Press. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  8. ^ http://www.breitbart.com/news/2007/01/19/D8MOJS580.html
  9. ^ Lucadamo, Kathleen (November 28, 2006). "Rev. Al mulls White House bid". New York Daily News. Retrieved 2006-11-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  10. ^ Lewis, Bob (December 19, 2006). "Former Va. governor opens exploratory GOP White House campaign". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved 2006-12-19. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  11. ^ Walker, Mark (November 4, 2006). "Duncan Hunter's bid for president a surprise". North County Times. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  12. ^ Easton, Nina (November 20, 2006). "Gingrich '08: The stealth candidate". Fortune. Retrieved 2006-11-20. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  13. ^ Howard, Ed (November 14, 2006). "Hagel In 2008 Doesn't Do Much For Nebraska Voters In 2006". Nebraska State Paper. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  14. ^ Sammon, Bill (September 13, 2006). "Meet the Next President: Huckabee Rising". Examiner. Retrieved 2006-12-17. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  15. ^ Wrobleski, Tom (November 19, 2006). "It's anything but a 2-person race". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  16. ^ Corsi, Jerome R. (April 30, 2006). "Founder of Minutemen targets run for president". World Net Daily. Retrieved 2006-11-14. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  17. ^ http://www.gp.org/video/2006tucson/garrett.shtml
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