2008 United States Senate elections

Template:Future election in the United States

Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 4 2008, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate (those in Class II) being contested. Since Senators are elected for six-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3 2009 until January 3 2015. Those Senators who were elected in 2002 will seek re-election or retire in 2008. The group of Senators up for election in 2008 are part of Senate Class 2, which traces its roots back to the Senators who served 4-year terms in 1789-1791.

The U.S. presidential election, 2008, U.S. gubernatorial elections, 2008 and U.S. House election, 2008 will occur on the same date, as well as many state and local elections.

The composition of the Senate going into the 2008 election will include 49 Republicans and 49 Democrats (plus two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who will caucus with Democrats). Of the seats up for election in 2008, 21 are held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats.

There may be additional changes of incumbents to the list below if Senators die or resign. If Senators in other classes die or resign between 2006 and 2008, there may be additional special elections in 2008. The dates between which the death or resignation of a Senator would lead to a special election in 2008 vary from state to state. Presently Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) is hospitalized, and Senator Craig Thomas (R-WY) is undergoing cancer treatment, and there has been public speculation as to whether these two senators will remain in office.

Predictions

Democrats possess the field advantage in 2008. They need only to defend 12 seats, while Republicans must defend 21. Of the 21 Republicans however, only 4 are in states won by Senator John Kerry in the 2004 election (Oregon, Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire). 6 of the 12 Democrats on the other hand are in states won by President George W. Bush (Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia).

The Hotline

Recently, The Hotline gave some early predictions, with Chuck Todd and John Mercurio agreeing that Senators John Sununu, Susan Collins, and Mary Landrieu are perhaps the most vulnerable incumbents.^[1]

CQPolitics

CQPolitics.com produced their first analysis of the 2008 Senate race on January 26, 2007. They rank the contests accordingly:^[2]

Eight Republican seats (Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Mexico and Wyoming) are considered Safe Republican, meaning the races are not expected to be competitive.
Seven Republican seats (Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia) are considered Republican Favored, meaning the races are not currently competitive but could conceivably become so under the right circumstances.
Five Republican seats (currently held by Susan Collins of Maine, Norm Coleman of Minnesota, John E. Sununu of New Hampshire, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Gordon H. Smith of Oregon) are considered Leans Republican, meaning the race is competitive but the Republican has a distinct advantage.
Two seats, currently held by retiring Republican Wayne Allard of Colorado and Democrat Tim Johnson of South Dakota, are rated No Clear Favorite, meaning no party has a distinct advantage.
One Democratic seat (currently held by Mary Landrieu of Louisiana) is considered Leans Democratic.
Four Democratic seats (Arkansas, Iowa, Montana and New Jersey) are considered Democrat Favored.
Six Democratic seats (Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island and West Virginia) are considered Safe Democratic.

Races

Retiring Senators

Senator Charles Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), has said that he has assurances from eleven of the twelve Democrats that they will be seeking reelection in 2008. According to Schumer, the only exception is Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, who has not decided yet. [3]

Only one senator, Wayne Allard of Colorado, has announced retirement, but others may retire because of age (Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Thad Cochran of Mississippi), health (Tim Johnson of South Dakota), or to pursue presidential campaigns (Joe Biden of Delaware).

Delaware law permits Biden to pursue a presidential campaign and reelection to the Senate simultaneously.

Besides Sen. Allard, the Cook Political Report, as of January 24, lists five possible retirements (all Republican senators)^[3]

Wayne Allard (R) of Colorado

Incumbent Republican Wayne Allard voluntarily term-limited himself to two Senatorial terms. On January 15, 2007, Allard formally announced he would not seek re-election.^[4]

Republicans: Former U.S. Representatives Bob Schaffer and Scott McInnis are likely candidates. Also considering running is former Representative Bob Beauprez, who lost in the 2006 gubernatorial election to Bill Ritter. Retired Denver Broncos quarterback John Elway and former governor Bill Owens have both ruled out a run. ^[5] ^[6] Congressman Tom Tancredo once expressed interest in the race, but has now endorsed McInnis, who has said he would run for the open Senate seat should Owens choose not to. ^[7]

Democrats: The Democratic nominee will almost certainly be U.S. Representative Mark Udall, who has announced that he will seek the seat and is unlikely to draw significant primary opposition.^[8]

Possible retiring Senators

Joe Biden (D) of Delaware

Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Biden has announced his interest in the 2008 race for President.^[9] Biden may run for both the Presidency and the Senate simultaneously, but may choose to retire from the Senate to focus exclusively on the Presidency. Should he retire, the 2008 race would feature the first open Delaware seat since 1970. 2008 will also feature an open seat for governor, and possibly an open seat for Delaware's at-large Congressional district.

Democrats: Possible candidates include Biden's son, Delaware's newly-elected Attorney General Beau Biden.

Republicans: U.S. Representative Michael Castle, would be the most formidable candidate for Republicans, but in 2008 he will be 69 years old and possesses 16 years of tenure in the House.^[10]

Thad Cochran (R) of Mississippi

Incumbent Republican Thad Cochran may retire, but he will not decide until 2007.^[11]

Republicans: U.S. Representative Chip Pickering is a likely candidate.

Democrats: Former state Attorney General Mike Moore is a likely candidate.

If Cochran does decide to seek reelection, he will not face serious opposition.

Pete Domenici (R) of New Mexico

Incumbent Republican Pete Domenici has indicated that he will seek reelection.^[12] Should he proceed with his re-election campaign, the seat is safely Republican. According to the Cook Political Report however, Domenici is still being looked at as a possible retirement. ^[13]

Democrats: Patricia Madrid, stated recently that she was considering running for statewide office other than attorney general, though she declined to specify which office.^[14] Another Democratic possibility is Congressman Tom Udall, whose cousin Mark will run for Wayne Allard's open seat in Colorado. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez was mentioned as a possible candidate, but is apparently focused on running for Governor of New Mexico in 2010.

Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska

Incumbent Republican Chuck Hagel may retire, regardless whether he chooses to run for president.^[15] Hagel would likely be reelected for a third term should he decide to run.

Republicans: All three of Nebraska's Congressmen are Republicans. Congressman Lee Terry and Jeff Fortenberry are possible candidates.

Democrats: Possible candidates include Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and 2006 congressional candidate Scott Kleeb.

Democratic incumbent races

Max Baucus of Montana

Max Baucus is a popular veteran Democrat serving in a state that has long been fairly Republican but also is receptive to centrist Democrats. President George W. Bush won Montana by more than 20 points in both 2000 and 2004, although a Democratic Presidential candidate has won as recently as 1992, Bill Clinton. Furthermore, Montanans elected a second Democrat, Jon Tester, by a narrow margin to the U.S. Senate in 2006. The state also has a popular Democratic Governor, Brian Schweitzer, and Democrats controlled both chambers of the state legislature in the 2005 session. Senator Baucus is unlikely to face a significant challenge, unless Congressman Denny Rehberg runs, which would be a rematch of the 1996 contest. A poll taken by Mason Dixon for Lee Newspapers on mid-December showed Baucus leading Rehberg in a rematch by 48% to 44% [4], but Rehberg has shown little interest in running.

Dick Durbin of Illinois

Senate Majority Whip Richard Durbin remains favored in the Land of Lincoln. He seeks to be reelected in a state that has steadily become more Democratic since 1992. One possible Republican candidate is state Senator Bill Brady.

Tom Harkin of Iowa

Democratic Senator Tom Harkin says he is "doing everything" he can to run for re-election including raising money and putting together a campaign organization.[5]

Harkin received 54% of the vote in 2002 against former Congressman Greg Ganske, which some believe may make this race competitive. Although Harkin has been elected to the Senate four times, his races are frequently quite close for such a long-term incumbent. While George W. Bush very narrowly carried Iowa in 2004, Iowa's traditional populist politics may give Harkin an edge. In 2006, the Democrats gained two US House seats and won both State Houses as well as retaining the Governor's Mansion. Possible Republican candidates include Congressmen Steve King and Tom Latham.

Tim Johnson of South Dakota

The seat of incumbent Democrat Tim Johnson could be a top GOP target in 2008, considering Johnson's narrow 524-vote victory in 2002 over then-Congressman John Thune, as well as his recent health problems. (Johnson underwent surgery in December 2006 for a Cerebral arteriovenous malformation.) According to a recent SurveyUSA poll, Johnson has an approval rating of 70%, with just 26% disapproving of his performance.^[16] Should he fail to recover from his condition, this seat would become a top Republican pick-up opportunity due to the conservative lean of the state.

Democrats: Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth is a likely candidate should Johnson retire. Former party Senate Leader Tom Daschle has also been mentioned as a possibility to return to the Senate.

Republicans: Governor Mike Rounds, who would have the power to appoint a replacement should Johnson vacate his seat prematurely, may decide to run for the Senate himself. Like Johnson, Rounds is popular: another SurveyUSA poll shows that Rounds also has an approval rating of 70%, with 27% disapproval.^[17]

John Kerry of Massachusetts

Incumbent Democratic Senator John Kerry will seek another term in the Senate.^[18]^[19] A recent SurveyUSA poll put Kerry's approval rating at only 43%, with 53% disapproving. ^[16]

Republican author and conservative activist Jerome Corsi, known for his public criticism of Kerry, has stated that he will run for the seat in 2008.^[20] Another possible candidate is former Lieutenant Governor and 2006 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kerry Healey.

Mary Landrieu of Louisiana

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu may be the most vulnerable Senate Democrat seeking re-election in 2008. Elected in 1996 following a recount, and re-elected in 2002 following a runoff, Landrieu must now endure the loss of many reliable Democratic voters since Hurricane Katrina dispersed many African Americans from New Orleans. 2004 saw Louisiana elect its first Republican to the Senate since Reconstruction (in David Vitter).

Republicans: Lousiana has a number of Republican Congressmen who may be interested in the 2008 Senate race. Congressman Bobby Jindal has decided to run for governor of the state in 2007, but others such as Charles Boustany may decide to run. Other possible Republican opponents include Secretary of State Jay Dardenne and state Senator Julie Quinn.

Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey

Frank Lautenberg has indicated that he will seek reelection in 2008 at the age of 84.^[21] Despite this announcement, other Democratic politicians such as Congressmen Rush Holt, Rob Andrews and Frank Pallone have shown interest in running for the Senate and could prove formidable opponents against Senator Lautenberg in a primary.

Republican Assemblyman Bill Baroni might run against Lautenberg. Baroni is a 34-year-old Law Professor who was the only Republican to defeat a Democratic incumbent in 2003 and won a landslide re-election in 2005 in which he knocked on over 10,000 doors. ^[22]

2005 Gubernatorial candidate and Morris County Freeholder John J. Murphy may decide to run against Lautenberg in 2008. However, he may choose to run for Governor again in 2009.

Republican Minority Whip and State Senator Tom Kean, Jr., son of popular former Governor and 9/11 Commission chair Tom Kean, Sr., may also run in the 2008 contest after losing to incumbent Senator Bob Menendez in the 2006 election.^[23]

Congressman Mike Ferguson and U.S. Attorney Chris Christie have stated they will not challange Sen. Lautenberg in 2008.

The most recent SurveyUSA poll on Senator Lautenberg shows an approval rating of just 39% with 45% disapproval^[24], although similar lopsided disapproval ratings did not impair the re-election of his colleague Senator Menendez.

Carl Levin of Michigan

Incumbent Democratic Senator Carl Levin has announced he will seek re-election.^[25] He will be 74 in 2008.

Sen. Levin is considered to be very popular among Michigan voters, and it would take a strong effort from Republicans to unseat him, even though Republicans comprise a majority of Michigan's house delegation. Possible Republican candidates include former Secretary of State and current Representative Candice Miller and current Representatives Mike J. Rogers, Pete Hoekstra, Dave Camp, Joe Knollenberg, Thad McCotter, Tim Walberg, Vern Ehlers, and Fred Upton, as well as former Representatives Joe Schwarz and Nick Smith.

Mark Pryor of Arkansas

Democratic Senator Mark Pryor will be targeted in his first race as an incumbent. However, Pryor, who was the only Democrat to defeat an incumbent Republican Senator in the otherwise GOP-dominant 2002 elections, is a popular public official and has a relatively moderate voting record. His chances are further bolstered by the nature of the state; while George W. Bush won the state both times, he won it by a smaller margin than most of the other Southern states, and the home of the Clinton family has Democrats for 3 out of 4 House representatives, along with another Democratic senator, Blanche Lincoln. A potential Republican candidate is former U.S. Attorney Chuck Banks.

Jack Reed of Rhode Island

Democratic incumbent Jack Reed is fairly popular, with a 64% approval rating according to SurveyUSA.^[16] However, the right candidate could put this seat in play - the most obvious choice being Senator Lincoln Chafee, defeated for re-election in 2006 by Sheldon Whitehouse. In an election where Bush and Iraq are less important, Chafee might be able to succeed again. Whether Chafee is interested in the race, or whether he will still identify himself as a Republican in 2008, is another matter entirely.^[26] In any case, it would be a difficult race for the GOP, and Reed is unlikely to be a top target.

Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller, a great-grandson of oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller and the only current politician out of the Rockefeller family, will seek reelection.^[10] Even though West Virginia is a traditionally Democratic state, President George W. Bush won West Virginia in 2000 and again in 2004. Representative Shelley Moore Capito would be the most obvious choice for Republicans, who refused to run against Senator Robert Byrd in 2006. She has not ruled out running against Rockefeller, but it is more likely that she will wait to mount a campaign until the seat of the aging Byrd becomes open.

Republican incumbent races

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Even though Lamar Alexander has strong prospects for a 2008 re-election bid, Tennessee, like most other southern states, still has a strong bevy of Democratic candidates. For the Democrats, a leading candidate in 2008 could be former Representative and 2006 U.S. Senate nominee Harold Ford, who ran a surprisingly strong campaign in Tennessee in 2006, as well as Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell. In December 2006, Ford said that he was planning to run for Alexander's seat, but in January 2007 he said that he then had no such plan.^[27]^[28] If Governor Phil Bredesen, who won every county in the 2006 gubernatorial election, were to vacate his Governor's seat to run for Senate, Lamar Alexander could be vulnerable.

Saxby Chambliss of Georgia

Georgia Democrats will no doubt want to give Republican Saxby Chambliss a run for his money, considering the 2002 campaign in which he defeated Vietnam Veteran and amputee Max Cleland, on the grounds he was anti-military and opposed actions by President Bush during the early stages of the War on Terrorism. Though Georgia has been getting more and more Republican since 1992, there are still some popular and potentially strong Democrats in the state. Possible opponents include Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, former Secretary of State Cathy Cox, DeKalb County C.E.O. Vernon Jones and U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall, who was narrowly reelected in 2006.

Norm Coleman of Minnesota

Republican Norm Coleman won a tight contest in 2002 against former Vice-President Walter Mondale after the incumbent Senator, Paul Wellstone, died in a plane crash. Minnesota politics, which had been getting less Democratic for a decade, showed signs of returning to its Democratic roots in 2004 after major gains in the state legislature and support for John Kerry by one point more than Al Gore had in 2000. The 2006 election only cemented this change: a relatively popular Governor Tim Pawlenty barely won re-election, Amy Klobuchar handily beat retiring Representative Mark Kennedy in a Senate race, and the Democrats took large majorities in the Minnesota State House: 19 additional seats in the state house to go from 66 to 85 seats out of 134, and further gains in the state senate. Radio talk show host and comedian Al Franken has taken steps towards seeking the nomination of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party to compete against Coleman. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak has been mentioned as a possible candidate, as has Minnesota attorney general Mike Hatch, who lost by a single point to Pawlenty in the 2006 governor's race. 2006 DFL primary candidate Ford Bell may also make a second Senate run, as might attorney Mike Ciresi. The Democrats may also recruit Collin Peterson a popular moderate Democrat, whose district leans Republican. However, the 2008 Republican National Convention is being held in the capital city of St. Paul, where Coleman was once Mayor (elected in 1993 as a moderate-to-conservative DFLer and re-elected in 1997 as a Republican), which will possibly give Coleman a boost. Coleman will still be in for a tough re-election campaign.

According to a recent SurveyUSA poll, Coleman has an approval rating of only 48 percent, with 43 percent disapproving of his performance.^[16]

Susan Collins of Maine

Though incumbent Republican Susan Collins promised when she first ran for the Senate in 1996 not to run for a third consecutive term should she be elected and reelected in 2002, Collins recently informed the Lewiston Sun Journal that she intends to seek another term. ^[29] While breaking her pledge could give Democrats some ammunition to use against her, she remains very popular, with a 69% job approval rating, and is likely to start as a strong favorite.^[30] Also in Collins' favor is the landslide re-election of Maine's senior senator, Republican Olympia Snowe, who had the largest margin of victory of any senate candidate (besides the unopposed Dick Lugar) in the 2006 election cycle. She was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2002 over state senator Chellie Pingree, but could face a stronger challenge from 1st District Democratic Congressman Tom Allen, who recently expressed some interest in running and has been building the apparatus necessary to wage a senate campaign. Other possible candidates include current State Attorney General Steven Rowe, outgoing Speaker of the House John G. Richardson, and former Senate President Beverly Daggett.

John Cornyn of Texas

Incumbent Republican John Cornyn has surprisingly modest job approval ratings for a Republican in solidly conservative Texas.^[31] Cornyn is a member of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee, and has been outspoken on demanding up-or-down votes on judicial nominees; his seat on the Committee gives him an edge over potential candidates. Barbara Ann Radnofsky, who lost the 2006 Senate race against popular senior Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, might run against Cornyn in 2008. Her 2006 campaign was generally considered to be a warm-up for this one. Despite Cornyn's mediocre approval ratings, he is favored to win re-election in a state which has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.

In addition to Radnofsky, other Democratic candidates might consider this seat. The list includes former state Controller John Sharp, who was almost elected Lieutenant Governor in 1998 and 2002, former Congressman and 2006 gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell and popular Houston mayor Bill White. Former Dallas mayor Ron Kirk, Cornyn's opponent in 2002, would be a draw for minority voters, especially his fellow African-Americans, while banker and 2002 gubernatorial candidate Tony Sanchez could bevy up strong support from Hispanics. Representative Henry Cuellar of Laredo, who has even managed to gain the endorsement of the conservative Club for Growth despite being a Democratic congressman, might earn the support of some Republican voters. Representative Nick Lampson, who won the 22nd district near Houston against Shelley Sekula-Gibbs after scandals forced former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay to resign from his seat has also been suggested, particularly since his relatively centrist politics would make him viable statewide in Texas, possibly more so than in his very right-leaning district, which he was probably only able to win due to the circumstances.

Current Congressman Lloyd Doggett and former congressman Ken Bentsen, Jr. also remain possibilities. Both unsuccessfully challenged for this same Senate seat. Doggett unsuccessfully challenged Cornyn's predecessor, Phil Gramm in 1984 to succeed the late John Tower, while Bentsen unsuccessfully challenged Kirk for the Democratic nomination in 2002 to succeed Gramm and is the nephew of the late Senator Lloyd Bentsen, who held Texas' other Senate seat, now held by Hutchison.

Larry Craig of Idaho

Incumbent Republican Larry Craig is likely to be re-elected without significant opposition in this strongly Republican state. Currently, he is being opposed in the Republican primary by Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez, a border security supporter who narrowly lost a GOP primary for Congress in 2006. Former U.S. Representative Larry LaRocco, who ran unsuccessfully for Lieutenant Governor the same year, may challenge Craig in the general election. Neither is given much chance of unseating him, but there is speculation that Craig may retire. Should that happen, U.S. Representative Mike Simpson would be a likely candidate and perhaps the front-runner. The Democrats have almost no strong candidates in this state, though Larry Grant, who narrowly lost to conservative Bill Sali in 2006's First District race, would be a credible candidate.

Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina

There have been rumors that incumbent Elizabeth Dole would retire from the Senate and run for Governor, but she more recently said that she intends to run for re-election.^[32] If she does, she will probably be an initial favorite unless she faces Democratic Governor Mike Easley, who will not be running for re-election because of term limits. A Dole-Easley race would be highly competitive, but Easley has stated that he is not interested in serving in any legislature.^[33]. Regardless, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has attempted to recruit Easley, without success up to this point. A recent poll showed Easley defeating Dole, 44% to 41%. [6] Regardless of the Democratic nominee, Dole will likely be burdened by her dismal failure as chairman of the Republican Senate Campaign Committee during the 2006 election cycle.

One possible candidate for the Democrats is state Senator Kay R. Hagan, a moderate from Greensboro. Several Democrats currently hold statewide elected office and North Carolina's Congressional delegation includes seven Democratic Congressmen, so there is no shortage of potential candidates.

Michael Enzi of Wyoming

Incumbent Republican Mike Enzi is likely to be re-elected without significant opposition in this strongly Republican state, barring some unforeseen development.

Lindsey Graham of South Carolina

Even though Lindsey Graham is a Republican U.S. Senator in a solidly conservative state, his "maverick" voting record could make him a target of conservative Republicans in 2008. His membership in the Gang of 14 and his close ties to Arizona Senator John McCain have drawn the ire many conservatives in his state and nationwide. As a reasonably popular Republican incumbent in a strongly conservative state, Graham is unlikely to be vulnerable to a Democratic challenge. However, he might find himself weakened by a previous primary challenge.

Democrat Robert Barber, who narrowly lost a statewide race for lieutenant governor in 2006, would be among the strongest Democratic challengers to Graham, although Graham would be heavily favored in such a matchup. Other potential challengers to Graham include his 2002 opponent Alex Sanders, 2004 Senate candidate Inez Tenenbaum, and newly-elected state Education Superintendent Jim Rex. Finally, SC Democratic Party chairman Joe Erwin, a multimillionaire, has elected not to seek a third term as party chair, fueling speculation that he will run for the seat.

Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma

Incumbent Republican Jim Inhofe has been quiet about his plans for 2008, but he has suggested that he looks forward to regaining his leadership positions in the Senate in 2008. ^[34]

Democratic U.S. Representative Dan Boren, one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress, may run for the seat if Inhofe does retire. Boren's father, David Boren, held this seat prior to Inhofe. However, if Inhofe does not retire, Dan Boren has stated that he is not interested in running against him. It also appears that Governor Brad Henry, Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor, and Oklahoma Attorney General Drew Edmondson have no intention of running for the seat, leaving few remaining possibilities for a serious Democratic challenge to Senator Inhofe.^[35]

Former Congressman and 2004 Democratic Senate candidate Brad Carson remains an intriguing possibility, although he indicated following the 2004 election that he had no immediate plans to return to office.

A recent SurveyUSA poll put Inhofe's approval rating at only 46 percent, with 41 percent disapproving of his performance.^[16]

Mitch McConnell of Kentucky

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will be a target for Democrats, who not only have a number of potential candidates to challenge McConnell in this southern state, but also are benefiting from the unpopularity of Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher, who could affect GOP races even if he is defeated in 2007, when Fletcher is next up for re-election.

Attorney General Greg Stumbo, 2004 nominee Daniel Mongiardo, and Representative John Yarmuth would appear to be the favorites for a challenge against McConnell. However, Mongiardo is currently running for Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky alongside Steve Beshear, while Stumbo appears to be running for Lieutenant Governor as the running mate of Bruce Lunsford. Kentucky Representative Ben Chandler has already stated that since the Democrats now control Congress, he will not seek to challenge McConnell. There have even been reports of Kentucky Democrats wanting to draft actor George Clooney to run against McConnell. ^{[citation needed]}

McConnell may be safer as many Kentucky Democrats interested in the Senate might wait until 2010, when they would either face weak Republican incumbent Jim Bunning or an open-seat race.

Pat Roberts of Kansas

Incumbent Republican Pat Roberts has indicated that he will seek reelection.^[10]

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, although current Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius and Congressman Dennis Moore may be a strong candidates for the Senate seat if either were to run.

Jeff Sessions of Alabama

Even though incumbent Republican Jeff Sessions has a strong chance of being re-elected, his Senate re-election campaign could become competitive given the right candidate. On January 10th, 2007, Congressman Artur Davis announced that he will not run for the seat, leaving the Democratic Party without a major viable candidate for now.^[36] Despite going heavily for George W. Bush in 2004, Democrats still have a major presence in Alabama politics, which is not unusual given the fact that Democrats control a majority of both houses in the Alabama Legislature.

Gordon Smith of Oregon

Republican Gordon Smith has always been fairly popular in this blue state, but his approval ratings have been falling as of late. Former Gov. John Kitzhaber, who would be the dream candidate for the Democrats, has stated he will not run on a KWBP radio show. State Treasurer Randall Edwards, state Superintendent Susan Castillo, Clastop County District Attorney Josh Marquis, or state Senator Ben Westlund (a recent party-switcher) might decide to enter the race. Smith recenetly made national headlines when he came out forcefully against the Iraq War, which some critics label opportunism.

Ted Stevens of Alaska

Ted Stevens will be 85 years old in 2008, but he has indicated that he will seek reelection.^[10] It is possible that an ambitious younger Republican would cite age as a reason to challenge Stevens in the primary.

Alaska's main high profile Democratic contender is former Governor Tony Knowles, but it is unlikely he would run again after losing two state-wide elections in a row. Possible Democratic contenders are Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich or state Representative Eric Croft.

John Sununu of New Hampshire

Incumbent Republican John Sununu represents a swing state which traditionally leans Republican, but which Kerry from neighboring Massachusetts narrowly won in 2004, and which saw major Democratic gains in the 2006 elections. Democrats won both Republican-held U.S. House seats, the gubernatorial race by a record margin, and the State House and Senate for the first time in generations. However, the general anti-Republican climate of 2006 may be responsible for much of that landslide, and may not remain in 2008. Sununu got a huge break when a spokesman for popular Governor John Lynch said he would not run.^[37] Still, Sununu will likely face a tough race. Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand has announced his candidacy [7] and Katrina Swett, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2002 and whose husband Richard Swett once served in Congress, has also announced. Other possible opponents include state Senator David Gottesman and former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (his 2002 opponent). However, Marchand stated that his decision to run was made easier after hearing that Shaheen was not interested in challenging Sununu, as many had speculated that she would do (see same link above).

John Warner of Virginia

John Warner has announced that he will run for a sixth term in 2008, at which point he will be 82 years old.

Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner, who left office with an unprecedented 70% approval rating, is reported to be seriously considering the Senate race.[8] Since he declined to run for the presidency, and considering his strong connection with rural voters in Virginia, he is considered to be the most viable Democratic candidate for this seat. Such a Warner vs. Warner contest would be a rematch of the 1996 race for this seat. However, after the announcement of fellow moderate Evan Bayh that he wouldn't run for president, former Governor Warner has not ruled out changing his mind on a White House run.

Should Senator Warner retire, which still has not been ruled out, Republican Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling or Republican Congressman Tom Davis would be potential candidates.^[38]

Senate contests in 2008

State	Incumbent	Status	Possible opposing candidates	2002 Election Results [9]
Alabama	Jeff Sessions (R)	Running for Re-election		Jeff Sessions (R) 59%; Susan Parker (D) 40%; Other 1%
Alaska	Ted Stevens (R)	Running for Re-election		Ted Stevens (R) 78% ; Frank J. Vondersaar (D) 11%; Jim Sykes (G) 8%; Other 3%
Arkansas	Mark Pryor (D)	Running for Re-election		Tim Hutchinson (R) 46%; Mark Pryor (D) 54%
Colorado	Wayne Allard (R)	Retiring	Mark Udall (D)	Wayne Allard (R) 51%; Tom Strickland (D) 46%; Other 3%
Delaware	Joe Biden (D)	Running for President		Joe Biden (D) 58%; Raymond J. Clatworthy (R) 41%; Other 1%
Georgia	Saxby Chambliss (R)	Running for re-election		Max Cleland (D) 46%; Saxby Chambliss (R) 53%; Other 1%
Idaho	Larry Craig (R)		Larry LaRocco (D)	Larry Craig (R) 65%; Alan Blinken (D) 33%; Other 2%
Illinois	Dick Durbin (D)	Running for Re-election		Dick Durbin (D) 60%; Jim Durkin (R) 38%; Other 2%
Iowa	Tom Harkin (D)	Running for Re-election	Steve King (R) Tom Latham (R)	Tom Harkin (D) 54%; Greg Ganske (R) 44%; Other 2%
Kansas	Pat Roberts (R)	Retiring?	Kathleen Sebelius (D)	Pat Roberts (R) 83%; Steven A. Rosile (L) 9%; George Cook (Reform) 8%
Kentucky	Mitch McConnell (R)	Running for Re-election	Phyllis George (D)	Mitch McConnell (R) 65%; Lois Combs Weinberg (D) 35%
Louisiana	Mary Landrieu (D)	Running for Re-election		Mary Landrieu (D) 52%; Suzanne Haik Terrell (R) 48%
Maine	Susan Collins (R)	Running for Re-election	Tom Allen (D)	Susan Collins (R) 58%; Chellie Pingree (D) 42%
Massachusetts	John Kerry (D)	Running for Re-election	Jerome Corsi (R)	John Kerry (D) 80%; Michael E. Cloud (L) 18%; Others 2%
Michigan	Carl Levin (D)	Running for Re-election	Michelle Engler (R)	Carl Levin (D) 60%; Andrew Raczkowski (R) 38%; Other 2%
Minnesota	Norm Coleman (R)	Running for Re-election	Mike Ciresi (D) Al Franken (D) Dean Johnson (D) Betty McCollum (D) Patty Wetterling (D) Judi Dutcher (D) Becky Lourey (D)	Norm Coleman (R) 50%; Walter Mondale (D) 47%; Other 4%
Mississippi	Thad Cochran (R)	Retiring?		Thad Cochran (R) 85%; Shawn O'Hara (Reform) 15%
Montana	Max Baucus (D)	Running for Re-election		Max Baucus (D) 63%; Mike Taylor (R) 32%; Other 5%
Nebraska	Chuck Hagel (R)	Running for President?		Chuck Hagel (R) 83%; Charlie A. Matulka (D) 15%; Other 2%
New Hampshire	John Sununu (R)	Running for Re-election	Steve Marchand (D) Jeanne Shaheen (D)	John Sununu (R) 51%; Jeanne Shaheen (D) 46%; Other 3%
New Jersey	Frank Lautenberg (D)	Retiring?		Frank Lautenberg (D) 54%; Douglas R. Forrester (R) 44%; Other 2%
New Mexico	Pete Domenici (R)	Retiring?		Pete Domenici (R) 65%; Gloria Tristani (D) 35%
North Carolina	Elizabeth Dole (R)	Running for Re-election	Mike Easley (D) Roy Cooper (D)	Elizabeth Dole (R) 54%; Erskine Bowles (D) 45%; Other 1%
Oklahoma	Jim Inhofe (R)	Retiring?	Frank Keating (R) Ernest Istook (R) Tommy Franks (R)	Jim Inhofe (R) 57%; David Walters (D) 36%; James Germalic Independent 6%; Other 1%
Oregon	Gordon Smith (R)	Running for Re-election	Ben Westlund (D)	Gordon Smith (R) 56%; Bill Bradbury (D) 40%; Other 4%
Rhode Island	Jack Reed (D)	Running for Re-election		Jack Reed (D) 78%; Robert G. Tingle (R) 22%
South Carolina	Lindsey Graham (R)	Running for Re-election		Lindsey Graham (R) 54%; Alex Sanders (D) 44%; Other 2%
South Dakota	Tim Johnson (D)		Mike Rounds (R)	Tim Johnson (D) 50%; John R. Thune (R) 49%; Other 1%
Tennessee	Lamar Alexander (R)	Running for Re-election		Lamar Alexander (R) 54%; Bob Clement (D) 44%; Other 2%
Texas	John Cornyn (R)	Running for Re-election		John Cornyn (R) 55%; Ron Kirk (D) 43%; Other 2%
Virginia	John Warner (R)	Retiring?		John Warner (R) 83%; Nancy Spannaus (Independent) 10%; Jacob G. Hornberger, Jr. (Independent) 7%
West Virginia	Jay Rockefeller (D)	Running for Re-election		Jay Rockefeller (D) 63%; Jay Wolfe (R) 37%
Wyoming	Mike Enzi (R)	Running for Re-election		Mike Enzi (R) 73%; Joyce Jansa Corcoran (D) 27%
State	Incumbent	Status	Opposing candidates	2002 Election Results

External links

References

^ National Journal's Hotline Blog
^ Congressional Quarterly 2008 Senate Ratings Chart, January 26, 2007.
^ http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2007_sen_ratings_jan24.pdf
^ "Report: Sen. Allard won't seek 3rd term". Associated Press. January 15, 2007. Retrieved 2007-1-15. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ http://www.canoncitydailyrecord.com/Top-Story.asp?ID=5889
^ http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/elections/article/0,2808,DRMN_24736_5285524,00.html
^ http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/elections/article/0,2808,DRMN_24736_5281293,00.html
^ Sealover, Ed (November 8, 2006). "Shift puts key state issues in question". Colorado Springs Gazette. Retrieved 2006-11-11. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ Associated Press (November 13, 2006). "McCain considers running for US presidency in 2008; Biden plans run; Feingold steps out". International Herald Tribune. Retrieved 2006-11-15. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Cite error: The named reference Hill was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^ Pender, Geoff (November 10, 2006). "A more civil Senate?". South Mississippi Sun Herald. Retrieved 2006-11-11. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ Lenderman, Andy (October 22, 2006). "Wilson, Madrid wage political war". Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved 2006-11-12. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ [1]
^ CQPolitics.com
^ Kaiser, Robert G. (November 15, 2004). "The Political Veteran". Washington Post. Retrieved 2006-11-15. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e [2]
^ SurveyUSA poll
^ http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/486633p-409728c.html
^ http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2007/01/24/kerry_to_bow_out_of_08_presidential_race
^ Finer, Jonathan (January 28, 2005). "Another Crack at Kerry". Washington Post. Retrieved 2006-11-16. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ Delli Santi, Angela (November 13, 2006). "Despite loss, Kean's future bright". South Jersey Courier Post. Retrieved 2006-11-15. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ The Star Ledger "People to Watch in 2007: Bill Baroni" (Page 4), accessed January 24, 2007
^ Howlett, Deborah (November 12, 2006). "For Kean, no regrets about run for Senate". North Jersey Star-Ledger. Retrieved 2006-11-15. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ SurveyUSA Poll
^ "Michigan Sen. Levin to seek re-election in 2008". Associated Press. December 4, 2006. Retrieved 2006-12-04. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/10/chafee.GOP/index.html
^ Richard Locker, Another Senate seat might tempt Ford, The Commercial Appeal, December 11, 2006
^ http://www.wmcstations.com/Global/story.asp?S=5951146
^ Lewiston Sun Journal
^ http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=bff2d16a-d988-4d01-95a2-393111e08738
^ http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=3478c82b-c958-4d76-bbb1-8d52710ab2e6
^ News & Observer, June 12, 2006
^ http://www.wral.com/news/5983850/detail.html
^ Casteel, Chris (November 12, 2006). "Inhofe quiet on plans for 2008". Washington Post. Retrieved 2006-11-15. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ Krehbiel, Randy (December 5, 2006). "Few Want to Take on Inhofe". Tulsa World. Retrieved 2006-12-20. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ "Davis Won't Challenge Stevens". WTOK. January 9, 2007. Retrieved 2007-1-10. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ http://www.boston.com/news/local/politics/primarysource/2006/11/shaheen_doesnt.html
^ "Allen's Loss Leaves Leadership Vacuum for Virginia GOP". WJLA/ABC 7. November 20, 2006. Retrieved 2006-11-19. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)