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45th Canadian federal election

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45th Canadian federal election
← 2021 On or before October 20, 2025 (2025 -10-20) 46th →
343 seats in the House of Commons[a]
172[b] seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Justin Trudeau in May 2023.jpg
Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg
Yves-François Blanchet Entrevue no smile 2023 (cropped-2).png
Leader Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 September 10, 2022 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Carleton Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 160[d] seats, 32.62% 119 seats, 33.74% 32 seats, 7.64%
Current seats 156 118 32
Seats needed Increase 16 Increase 54 N/A[c]
 
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
Elizabeth May 4431 (37439753570) (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier portrait 2023.png
Leader Jagmeet Singh Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 November 19, 2022 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South Saanich—Gulf Islands N/A[e]
Last election 25 seats, 17.82% 2 seats, 2.33% 0 seats, 4.94%
Current seats 24 2 0
Seats needed Increase 148 Increase 170 Increase 172
Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal



The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.

The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[1] However, a government bill currently under consideration by the House of Commons would change the 2025 fixed election date to October 27 to avoid conflicting with the Hindu festival of Diwali.[2] Moving the election date to October 27 would also allow 74 members of parliament to qualify for a pension that they would not receive if they fail to achieve reelection, though the government denies this motivated the change.[3] In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be held no more than five years after the preceding election.

The election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons.[4][5][6]

Depending on the date the election is called, it may be the first contested using a new 343-constituency electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. New electoral boundaries for each of the ten provinces were finalized between February 14, 2023[7][8] and July 8, 2023,[9] and officially proclaimed on September 22, 2023.[10] Any election that is called on or after April 22, 2024, will use the new boundaries, while any called prior will re-use the 338-seat boundary set presently in force.[11][10][12]

Background

The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20 that year, saw little change from the preceding 2019 election.[13] The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, failed to win a parliamentary majority or the popular vote, but remained the party with the most seats and remained in office as a minority government. The Conservatives won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition.[14][f] On September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader,[15] which came into effect on November 10.[16]

Electoral redistribution

Main article: 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution

The Constitution Act, 1867, requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution following each decennial Canadian census.[17] Using the 2021 Canadian census population results, the 2022 redistribution began in October 2021, and was completed in September 2023.[18]

On October 15, 2021, the chief electoral officer announced that based on the procedure in the Constitution Act, 1867 as then in force, the allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats.[19] This included a reduction of Quebec’s allocation from 78 to 77 seats. The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in 2012 redistribution.[20][21] The Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867, commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause".[22][23] The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15,[24] the Senate on June 21,[25] and received royal assent on June 23, 2022.[26] The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, 2022, which would result in an increase to 343 seats.[27]

Pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act as amended, ten federal electoral boundary commissions were established, one for each province, on November 1, 2021.[28] The boundary-drawing process commenced upon the release of census data in February 2022. Quebec’s commission adjusted its work to be based on a 78-seat allocation in July 2022. The respective commissions completed their work and finalized new electoral boundary sets on a rolling basis, beginning with the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island commissions on February 14, 2023,[7][8] and finishing with the Ontario commission on July 8, 2023.[9] The Chief Electoral Officer then used the final reports of the electoral boundary commissions to formalize a Representation Order, which was proclaimed on September 22, 2023.[10]

The changes to federal electoral district boundaries will take effect at the earliest on April 22, 2024.[11][19][10] If the election is called before April 22, 2024, it will occur with the current electoral district boundaries, which have been in effect since the 2015 federal election was called on August 4, 2015.[29][30]

Allocation of seats in the House of Commons under the Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act
Province or territory Representation orders Average population
per electoral district 		Change
2013 2023
Ontario 121 122 116,590 1 Increase
Quebec 78 78 108,998 Steady
British Columbia 42 43 116,300 1 Increase
Alberta 34 37 115,206 3 Increase
Manitoba 14 14 95,868 Steady
Saskatchewan 14 14 80,893 Steady
Nova Scotia 11 11 88,126 Steady
New Brunswick 10 10 77,561 Steady
Newfoundland and Labrador 7 7 72,935 Steady
Prince Edward Island 4 4 38,583 Steady
Northwest Territories 1 1 41,070 Steady
Nunavut 1 1 36,858 Steady
Yukon 1 1 40,232 Steady
Canada 338 343 107,848 5 Increase

Transposed 2021 results

The transposed results of the 2021 election, if they had taken place under the 2023 Representation Order.

If the election is called after April 22, 2024, it will be contested under the new electoral districts established in the 2022 redistribution. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2021 were unchanged, but regrouped by new electoral district boundaries, as published by Elections Canada.[31]

Transposed 2021 results on 2023 boundaries
Party MPs
2021 actual result 2021 transposed result Change
Liberal 160 157 Decrease 3
Conservative 119 126 Increase 7
Bloc Québécois 32 34 Increase 2
New Democratic 25 24 Decrease 1
Green 2 2 Steady
Total 338 343 5 Increase

Parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal, having been disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot, and sits as an independent.[32]

Name Ideology Position Leader 2021 result Current standing
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism 		Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
32.62%
160 / 338
156 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism 		Centre-right to right-wing Pierre Poilievre
33.74%
119 / 338
118 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism
Quebec sovereigntist
Social democracy 		Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.64%
32 / 338
32 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy (Majority)
Democratic socialism (Minority) 		Centre-left (Majority)
Left-wing (Minority) 		Jagmeet Singh
17.82%
25 / 338
24 / 338
Green Green politics Elizabeth May
2.33%
2 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.19%
0 / 338
3 / 338
Vacant N/A
3 / 338

Incumbents not running for re-election

As of April 2024, a total of eighteen MPs have announced they will not run in the 45th federal election.

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Ron Liepert[33] Calgary Signal Hill Alberta February 17, 2023
  Wayne Long[34] Saint John—Rothesay New Brunswick March 14, 2023
  Randall Garrison[35] Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke British Columbia April 27, 2023
  Ken Hardie[36] Fleetwood—Port Kells British Columbia May 26, 2023
  Lloyd Longfield[37] Guelph Ontario June 28, 2023
  Helena Jaczek[38] Markham—Stouffville Ontario July 25, 2023
  Joyce Murray[39] Vancouver Quadra British Columbia July 25, 2023
  Omar Alghabra[40] Mississauga Centre Ontario July 25, 2023
  Alain Rayes[41] Richmond—Arthabaska Quebec September 11, 2023
  Richard Cannings[42] South Okanagan—West Kootenay British Columbia September 12, 2023
  Anthony Rota[43] Nipissing—Timiskaming Ontario October 23, 2023
  Emmanuel Dubourg[44] Bourassa Quebec November 1, 2023
  Nathaniel Erskine-Smith[45] Beaches—East York Ontario December 7, 2023
  Tony Van Bynen[46] Newmarket—Aurora Ontario March 11, 2024
  Ed Fast[47] Abbotsford British Columbia March 14, 2024
  Charlie Angus[48] Timmins—James Bay Ontario April 4, 2024
  Carol Hughes[49] Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Ontario April 4, 2024
  Rachel Blaney[50] North Island—Powell River British Columbia April 4, 2024

Timeline

See also: 44th Canadian Parliament and By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament
Changes in seats held (2021–)
House of Commons – Changes in seats held
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Spadina—Fort York November 22, 2021 Kevin Vuong █ Liberal Excluded from caucus █ Independent
Mississauga—Lakeshore May 27, 2022 Sven Spengemann █ Liberal Resigned[a 1] December 12, 2022 Charles Sousa █ Liberal
Richmond—Arthabaska September 13, 2022 Alain Rayes █ Conservative Left caucus █ Independent
Winnipeg South Centre December 12, 2022 Jim Carr █ Liberal Death June 19, 2023 Ben Carr █ Liberal
Calgary Heritage December 31, 2022 Bob Benzen █ Conservative Resigned July 24, 2023 Shuvaloy Majumdar █ Conservative
Oxford January 27, 2023 Dave MacKenzie █ Conservative Resigned June 19, 2023 Arpan Khanna █ Conservative
Portage—Lisgar February 28, 2023 Candice Bergen █ Conservative Resigned June 19, 2023 Branden Leslie █ Conservative
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount March 8, 2023 Marc Garneau █ Liberal Resigned June 19, 2023 Anna Gainey █ Liberal
Don Valley North March 22, 2023 Han Dong █ Liberal Left caucus █ Independent
Durham August 1, 2023 Erin O'Toole █ Conservative Resigned March 4, 2024 Jamil Jivani █ Conservative
Toronto—St. Paul's January 16, 2024 Carolyn Bennett █ Liberal Resigned[51] █ Vacant
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun February 1, 2024 David Lametti █ Liberal Resigned[52] █ Vacant
Elmwood—Transcona March 31, 2024 Daniel Blaikie █ New Democratic Resigned[53] █ Vacant
  1. ^ to accept a position with the United Nations

2021

  • September 27 – Annamie Paul announced her intent to resign as leader of the Green Party.[54]
  • November 10 – Paul formally submitted her resignation, and ended her membership in the party.[16] The Green Party accepted her resignation a few days later.[55][56]
  • November 15 – Senator Denise Batters launched a petition to review the leadership of Erin O'Toole.[57] Party president Robert Batherson decided the petition was not in order.[57] The following day, Batters was removed from the conservative caucus.[58]
  • November 24 – Amita Kuttner was appointed as Green Party interim leader.[59][60]
  • December 5 – The People's Party concluded its leadership review of Maxime Bernier. He was confirmed and continued as leader.[61][62]

2022

2023

2024

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election
Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
2008
Opinion polls
2011
Opinion polls • By constituency
2015
Opinion polls • By constituency
2019
Opinion polls • By constituency
2021
Opinion polls • By constituency
Next election
Opinion polls
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Notes

  1. ^ If the election is called prior to April 22, 2024, implementation of the redistribution will be deferred and the total number of seats will remain at 338.
  2. ^ If the election is called prior to April 22, 2024, implementation of the redistribution will be deferred and the number of seats required for a majority will remain at 170.
  3. ^ Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus it is impossible for the party to gain a majority in Parliament.
  4. ^ Includes Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He has not been seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  5. ^ MP for Beauce until being defeated in the 2019 election. Contested the by-election in Portage–Lisgar, lost.
  6. ^ While formal results show the Liberals winning or leading in 160 seats, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and has since sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.

References

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  9. ^ a b Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario. "Redistribution process timeline in Ontario".
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  11. ^ a b Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission. "Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts".
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  39. ^ Joyce Murray [@JoyceMurray] (July 25, 2023). "After much thought and reflection, I have decided not to run again in the next election after my current term" (Tweet). Retrieved July 25, 2023 – via Twitter.
  40. ^ Omar Alghabra [@OmarAlghabra] (July 25, 2023). "I have news to share: after a lot of reflection, I decided to not run in the next election" (Tweet). Retrieved July 25, 2023 – via Twitter.
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