Historical rankings of presidents of the United States
In political science, historical rankings of United States Presidents are surveys conducted in order to construct rankings of the success of individuals who have served as President of the United States. Ranking systems are usually based on surveys of academic historians and political scientists or popular opinion. The rankings focus on the presidential achievements, leadership qualities, failures and faults (such as corruption).
Three Presidents—George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin D. Roosevelt– are consistently ranked at the top of the lists. Usually ranked just below those three are Presidents Thomas Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt. The remaining top 10 ranks are often rounded out by Harry S. Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Andrew Jackson, Woodrow Wilson, and James Madison. Ranking at the bottom of most polls are Warren G. Harding, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, and George W. Bush. Two presidents, William Henry Harrison and James A. Garfield, died after less than six months in office, and are sometimes not ranked.
Some presidents present special problems because their foreign policy success or failure stands in contradiction to their domestic policy failure or success. Political scientist Walter Dean Burnham noted the "dichotomous or schizoid profiles." Historian Alan Brinkley said, "There are presidents who could be considered both failures and great or near great (for example, Nixon)". James MacGregor Burns observed of Nixon, "How can one evaluate such an idiosyncratic president, so brilliant and so morally lacking?"[1]
Notable scholar surveys
The 1948 poll was conducted by historian Arthur M. Schlesinger, Sr. of Harvard University.[2] The 1962 survey was also conducted by Schlesinger, who surveyed 75 historians; the results of this survey are given in the book The Complete Book of U.S. Presidents by William A. Degregorio. Schlesinger's son Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr. conducted another poll in 1996, not currently on the chart below.
The Complete Book of U.S. Presidents also gives the results of the 1982 survey, a poll of 49 historians conducted by the Chicago Tribune. A notable difference from the 1962 Schlesinger poll was the ranking of President Dwight D. Eisenhower, who was ranked #22 in 1962, but was ranked #9 in the 1982 survey.
The Siena Research Institute of Siena College conducted surveys in 1982, 1990, 1994, and 2002. The 1994 survey placed only two Presidents, Franklin Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln, above 80 points, and placed two Presidents, Andrew Johnson and Warren G. Harding, below 50 points.[3][4]
The 1996 column shows the results from a poll conducted from 1989 to 1996 by William J. Ridings, Jr. and Stuart B. McIver, and published in the book Rating the Presidents: A Ranking of U.S. leaders, from the Great and Honorable to the Dishonest and Incompetent. More than 719 people took part in the poll, primarily academic historians and political scientists, although some politicians and celebrities also took part. Participants from every state were included, and emphasis was placed upon getting input from female historians and "specialists in African-American studies", as well as a few non-American historians. Poll respondents rated the Presidents in five categories (leadership qualities, accomplishments & crisis management, political skill, appointments, character & integrity), and the results were tabulated to create the overall ranking.
The C-SPAN Survey of Presidential Leadership was a 1999 survey of academic historians (with self-selected responders). It found that historians consider Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, and Franklin D. Roosevelt the three best presidents by a wide margin and William Henry Harrison, Andrew Johnson, Franklin Pierce, and James Buchanan the worst.[5]
A 2000 survey by The Wall Street Journal consisted of an "ideologically balanced group of 132 prominent professors of history, law, and political science". This poll sought to include an equal number of liberals and conservatives in the survey, as the editors argued that previous polls were dominated by either one group or the other, but never balanced. According to the editors, this poll included responses from more women, minorities, and young professors than the 1996 Schlesinger poll. The editors noted that the results of their poll were "remarkably similar" to the 1996 Schlesinger poll, with the main difference in the 2000 poll being the lower rankings for the 1960s presidents Lyndon B. Johnson and John F. Kennedy, and higher ranking of President Ronald Reagan at #8. Franklin Roosevelt still ranked in the top three.
Another presidential poll was conducted by The Wall Street Journal in 2005, with James Lindgren of Northwestern University Law School for the Federalist Society.[6] As in the 2000 survey, the editors sought to balance the opinions of liberals and conservatives, adjusting the results "to give Democratic- and Republican-leaning scholars equal weight." Franklin D. Roosevelt still ranked in the top-three, but editor James Taranto noted that Democratic-leaning scholars rated George W. Bush the worst president of all time, while Republican scholars rated him the sixth-best, giving him a split-decision rating of "average".
A 2006 Siena College poll of 744 professors reported the following results:[7]
- "George W. Bush has just finished five years as President. If today were the last day of his presidency, how would you rank him? The responses were: Great: 2%; Near Great: 5%; Average: 11%; Below Average: 24%; Failure: 58%."
- "In your judgment, do you think he has a realistic chance of improving his rating?” Two-thirds (67%) responded no; less than a quarter (23%) responded yes; and 10% chose no opinion or not applicable."
Thomas Kelly, professor emeritus of American studies at Siena College, said: "President Bush would seem to have small hope for high marks from the current generation of practicing historians and political scientists. In this case, current public opinion polls actually seem to cut the President more slack than the experts do." Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of statistics and director of the Siena Research Institute, stated: "In our 2002 presidential rating, with a group of experts comparable to this current poll, President Bush ranked 23rd of 42 presidents. That was shortly after 9/11. Clearly, the professors do not think things have gone well for him in the past few years. These are the experts that teach college students today and will write the history of this era tomorrow."[7]
A 2008 History News Network "unscientific and informal" poll among professional historians found that 98 percent believed that the George W. Bush presidency was a failure, and that 61 percent believed it to be the worst in history.[8]
Scholar survey results
Chronological order | President | Schlesinger 1948 poll rank | Schlesinger 1962 poll rank | 1982 Murray-Blessing survey of 846 historians | Chicago Tribune 1982 poll rank | Siena 1982 poll rank | Siena 1990 poll rank | Siena 1994 poll rank | Ridings- McIver 1996 poll rank | CSPAN 1999 poll rank | Wall Street Journal 2000 poll rank | Siena 2002 poll rank | Wall Street Journal 2005 poll rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01 | George Washington | 02 | 02 | 03 | 03 | 04 | 04 | 04 | 03 | 03 | 01 | 04 | 01 |
02 | John Adams | 09 | 10 | 09 | 14 (tie) | 10 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
03 | Thomas Jefferson | 05 | 05 | 04 | 05 | 02 | 03 | 05 | 04 | 07 | 04 | 05 | 04 |
04 | James Madison | 14 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 09 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 18 | 15 | 09 | 17 |
05 | James Monroe | 12 | 18 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 08 | 16 |
06 | John Quincy Adams | 11 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 25 |
07 | Andrew Jackson | 06 | 06 | 07 | 06 | 13 | 09 | 11 | 08 | 13 | 06 | 13 | 10 |
08 | Martin Van Buren | 15 | 17 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 21 | 30 | 23 | 24 | 27 |
09 | William Henry Harrison | – | – | – | 38 | 26 | 35 | 28 | 35 | 37 | – | 36 | — |
10 | John Tyler | 22 | 25 | 28 | 29 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 36 | 34 | 37 | 35 |
11 | James K. Polk | 10 | 08 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 09 |
12 | Zachary Taylor | 25 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 34 | 33 | 29 | 28 | 31 | 34 | 33 |
13 | Millard Fillmore | 24 | 26 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 35 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 38 | 36 |
14 | Franklin Pierce | 27 | 28 | 31 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 39 | 37 | 39 | 38 |
15 | James Buchanan | 26 | 29 | 33 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 39 | 41 | 40 |
16 | Abraham Lincoln | 01 | 01 | 01 | 01 | 03 | 02 | 02 | 01 | 01 | 02 | 02 | 02 |
17 | Andrew Johnson | 19 | 23 | 32 | 32 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 38 | 40 | 36 | 42 | 37 |
18 | Ulysses S. Grant | 28 | 30 | 35 | 30 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 33 | 32 | 35 | 29 |
19 | Rutherford B. Hayes | 13 | 14 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 27 | 24 |
20 | James Garfield | – | – | – | 33 | 25 | 30 | 27 | 30 | 29 | – | 33 | — |
21 | Chester A. Arthur | 17 | 21 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 32 | 28 | 26 | 30 | 26 |
22, 24 | Grover Cleveland | 08 | 11 | 17 | 13 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 20 | 12 |
23 | Benjamin Harrison | 21 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 31 | 29 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 27 | 32 | 30 |
25 | William McKinley | 18 | 15 | 18 | 10 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 19 | 14 |
26 | Theodore Roosevelt | 07 | 07 | 05 | 04 | 05 | 05 | 03 | 05 | 04 | 05 | 03 | 05 |
27 | William Howard Taft | 16 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 24 | 19 | 21 | 20 |
28 | Woodrow Wilson | 04 | 04 | 06 | 07 | 06 | 06 | 06 | 06 | 06 | 11 | 06 | 11 |
29 | Warren G. Harding | 29 | 31 | 36 | 37 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 38 | 38 | 37 | 40 | 39 |
30 | Calvin Coolidge | 23 | 27 | 30 | 27 | 30 | 31 | 36 | 33 | 27 | 25 | 29 | 23 |
31 | Herbert Hoover | 20 | 19 | 21 | 21 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 24 | 34 | 29 | 31 | 31 |
32 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 03 | 03 | 02 | 02 | 01 | 01 | 01 | 02 | 02 | 03 | 01 | 03 |
33 | Harry S. Truman | – | 09 | 08 | 08 | 07 | 07 | 07 | 07 | 05 | 07 | 07 | 07 |
34 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | – | 22 | 11 | 09 | 11 | 12 | 08 | 09 | 09 | 09 | 10 | 08 |
35 | John F. Kennedy | – | – | 13 | 14 (tie) | 08 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 08 | 18 | 14 | 15 |
36 | Lyndon B. Johnson | – | – | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
37 | Richard Nixon | – | – | 34 | 34 | 28 | 25 | 23 | 32 | 25 | 33 | 26 | 32 |
38 | Gerald R. Ford | – | – | 24 | 23 | 23 | 27 | 32 | 27 | 23 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
39 | Jimmy Carter | – | – | 25 | 26 | 33 | 24 | 25 | 19 | 22 | 30 | 25 | 34 |
40 | Ronald Reagan | – | – | – | – | 16 | 22 | 20 | 26 | 11 | 08 | 16 | 06 |
41 | George H. W. Bush | – | – | – | – | – | 18 | 31 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
42 | Bill Clinton | – | – | – | – | – | – | 16 | 23 | 21 | 24 | 18 | 22 |
43 | George W. Bush | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 23 | 18 |
More than 1,000 people have participated in the surveys. The issue of the validity of the rankings has been of special interest to historians and political scientists, who have tried to specify the relative importance of personality, leadership, issues and partisanship. Quantitative ranking by groups of scholars has been in favor in recent decades, displacing the traditional methods of evaluation by individual writers as typified by Bailey (1966) and most biographers.
Because Grover Cleveland served two non-consecutive terms as both the 22nd and 24th President, the total number of Presidents in each poll is at least one less than the number of the most recently serving President in the poll. Because of their short time in office, Presidents William Henry Harrison and James Garfield are sometimes omitted from these polls.
Liberal and conservative raters
The Murray-Blessing 1982 survey[9] asked historians whether they were liberal or conservative on domestic, social and economic issues. The table below shows that the two groups had only small differences in ranking the best and worst presidents. Both groups agreed on the composition of seven of the top ten Presidents (and were split over the inclusion of either Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan, Lyndon B. Johnson or Dwight D. Eisenhower, and Andrew Jackson or Woodrow Wilson), and six of the worst seven (split over Jimmy Carter or Calvin Coolidge). Conservatives placed Democrat Harry S. Truman at a higher ranking and included Democrat Woodrow Wilson in their top ten.
Rank | Liberals (n=190) | Conservatives (n=50) |
---|---|---|
1 | Lincoln | Lincoln |
2 | Franklin Roosevelt | Washington |
3 | Washington | Franklin Roosevelt |
4 | Jefferson | Jefferson |
5 | Theodore Roosevelt | Theodore Roosevelt |
6 | Clinton | Reagan |
7 | Jackson | Truman |
8 | Truman | Wilson |
9 | Lyndon Johnson | Eisenhower |
10 | John Adams | John Adams |
... | ||
30 | Coolidge | Carter |
31 | Pierce | Nixon |
32 | Buchanan | Pierce |
33 | Andrew Johnson | Andrew Johnson |
34 | Grant | Buchanan |
35 | Nixon | Grant |
36 | Harding | Harding |
Popular opinion
C-SPAN viewer survey
C-SPAN asked viewers in 1999 to rank the presidents, and 1,145 people participated. The results of the viewer survey were similar to the results of the 1999 C-SPAN historian survey, with a few notable differences.[10]
- Ronald Reagan
- Abraham Lincoln
- Theodore Roosevelt
- Franklin D. Roosevelt
- Thomas Jefferson
- Harry S. Truman
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
- James Monroe
- James Madison
- John Adams
- Lyndon Baines Johnson
- Woodrow Wilson
- Andrew Jackson
- John Quincy Adams
- George H.W. Bush
- James Polk
- William McKinley
- Richard Nixon
ABC poll
An ABC News poll about presidential greatness, taken 16–20 February 2000, asked 1012 adults nationwide, "Who do you think was the greatest American president?"[11]
- Abraham Lincoln (19%)
- John F. Kennedy (17%)
- Franklin Roosevelt (11%)
- No opinion (10%)
- Ronald Reagan (9%)
- George Washington (8%)
- Bill Clinton (7%)
- Theodore Roosevelt (4%)
- George H.W. Bush (4%)
- Thomas Jefferson (3%)
- Harry Truman (2%)
- Richard Nixon (2%)
- Jimmy Carter (1%)
- Dwight Eisenhower (1%)
Rasmussen Reports poll
A Rasmussen Reports poll taken June 13–24 of 2007 asked 1,000 randomly selected adults to rate America's presidents. Six presidents were rated favorably by at least 80% of respondents. They were George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and John F. Kennedy. Twenty presidents were viewed favorably by at least 50% of respondents.
Only two presidents were viewed unfavorably by at least 50% of respondents. They were Richard Nixon and George W. Bush, the current president. [12]
Favorably-viewed Presidents
- George Washington (94% favorable)
- Abraham Lincoln (92% favorable)
- Thomas Jefferson (89% favorable)
- Theodore Roosevelt (84% favorable)
- Franklin D. Roosevelt (81% favorable)
- John F. Kennedy (80% favorable)
- John Adams (74% favorable)
- James Madison (73% favorable)
- Ronald Reagan (72% favorable)
- Dwight Eisenhower (72% favorable)
- Harry Truman (70% favorable)
- Andrew Jackson (69% favorable)
- Gerald Ford (62% favorable)
- John Quincy Adams (59% favorable)
- Ulysses S. Grant (58% favorable)
- Jimmy Carter (57% favorable)
- William Taft (57% favorable)
- George H.W. Bush (57% favorable)
- Woodrow Wilson (56% favorable)
- Bill Clinton (55% favorable)
Unfavorably-viewed Presidents
- George W. Bush: 66% unfavorable
- Richard Nixon: 60% unfavorable
Washington College poll
A Washington College poll about presidential greatness, taken 11 February 2005, asked 800 adults nationwide, "Thinking about all the presidents of the United States throughout history to the present, who would you say was America's greatest president?"[13]
- Abraham Lincoln (20%)
- Ronald Reagan (15%)
- Franklin D. Roosevelt (12%)
- John F. Kennedy (11%)
- Bill Clinton (10%)
- Other/Don't Know (9%)
- George W. Bush (8%)
- George Washington (6%)
- Theodore Roosevelt (3%)
- Dwight Eisenhower (3%)
- Jimmy Carter (2%)
- Thomas Jefferson (2%)
- Richard Nixon (1%)
- John Adams (<1%)
- Andrew Jackson (<1%)
- Lyndon Johnson (<1%)
Gallup poll
A Gallup poll about presidential greatness, taken February 9–11, 2007, asked 1006 adults nationwide, "Who do you regard as the greatest United States president?"[11]
- Abraham Lincoln (18%)
- Ronald Reagan (16%)
- John F. Kennedy (14%)
- Bill Clinton (13%)
- Franklin Roosevelt (9%)
- Other/None/No opinion (8%)
- George Washington (7%)
- Harry Truman (3%)
- George W. Bush (2%)
- Theodore Roosevelt (2%)
- Dwight Eisenhower (2%)
- Thomas Jefferson (2%)
- Jimmy Carter (2%)
- Gerald Ford (1%)
- George H.W. Bush (1%)
- Richard Nixon (0%)
Recent president polls
These polls evaluate Presidents from Dwight D. Eisenhower and later succession.
Quinnipiac University poll
A Quinnipiac University poll, taken May 23–30, 2006, asked 1,534 registered American voters to pick the worst U.S. President of the last 61 years.[14]
"Which of these eleven presidents we have had since World War II would you consider the worst president– Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George Bush Senior, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush?"
- George W. Bush (34%)
- Richard Nixon (17%)
- Bill Clinton (16%)
- Jimmy Carter (13%)
- Don't Know No Answer (5%)
- Lyndon Johnson (4%)
- George H. W. Bush (3%)
- Ronald Reagan (3%)
- Gerald Ford (2%)
- Harry Truman (1%)
- John Kennedy (1%)
- Dwight Eisenhower (<1%)
USA Today/Gallup poll
A USA Today/Gallup Poll, taken December 8–10, 2006, asked 1009 adults nationwide, "How do you think each of the following presidents will go down in history– as an outstanding president, above average, average, below average, or poor?"
Result | George W. Bush | Bill Clinton | George H.W. Bush | Ronald Reagan | Jimmy Carter | Gerald Ford |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
outstanding | 4% | 12% | 5% | 24% | 11% | 6% |
above average | 15% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 27% | 17% |
average | 27% | 29% | 50% | 26% | 38% | 60% |
below average | 25% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 13% | 9% |
poor | 29% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 9% | 3% |
unsure | - | - | - | 1% | 3% | 5% |
References
- ^ Skidmore 2001
- ^ [1]
- ^ [2]
- ^ [3]
- ^ American Presidents: Life Portraits
- ^ The Wall Street Journal Online - Extra
- ^ a b Experts: Bush Presidency Is A Failure; Little Chance To Improve Ranking. Siena Research Institute. May 1, 2006
- ^ McElvaine, Robert S. "HNN Poll: 61% of Historians Rate the Bush Presidency Worst". 1 April 2008. Available online.
- ^ Murray and Blessing, p. 135.
- ^ American Presidents: Life Portraits
- ^ a b Presidents & History
- ^ Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election
- ^ Washington College | Search the Washington College Site
- ^ [4]
Further reading
- Bailey, Thomas A. (1966). Presidential Greatness: The Image and the Man from George Washington to the Present. New York: Appleton-Century.
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(help) → A non quantitative appraisal by leading historian. - Bose, Meena (2003). The Uses and Abuses of Presidential Ratings. New York: Nova Science Publishers. ISBN 1590337948.
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suggested) (help) → A collection of essays by presidential scholars. - DeGregorio, William A. (1993). The Complete Book of U.S. Presidents (4. ed., rev., expanded, and up-dated ed.). New York: Barricade Books. ISBN 0942637925.
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(help) → Contains the results of the 1962 and 1982 surveys. - Faber, Charles (2000). The American Presidents Ranked by Performance. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co. ISBN 0786407654.
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suggested) (help) - Felzenberg, Alvin S. (1997). "There You Go Again: Liberal Historians and the New York Times Deny Ronald Reagan His Due". Policy Review. 82: 51–54. ISSN 0146-5945.
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(help) - Holli, Melvin G. (1999). The American Mayor: The Best & the Worst Big-City Leaders. University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State Univ. Press. ISBN 0271018763.
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(help) - Miller, Nathan (1998). Star-Spangled Men America's Ten Worst Presidents. New York: Scribner. ISBN 0684836106.
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(help) - Murray, Robert K. (1994). Greatness in the White House: Rating the Presidents, from Washington Through Ronald Reagan (2., updated ed. ed.). University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State Univ. Press. ISBN 0271010894.
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suggested) (help) - Pfiffner, James P. (2003). "Ranking the Presidents: Continuity and Volatility" (PDF). White House Studies. 3: 23. ISSN 1535-4768.
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(help) - Ridings, William J., Jr. (1997). Rating the Presidents: A Ranking of U.S. leaders, from the Great and Honorable to the Dishonest and Incompetent. Secaucus, NJ: Carol Publishing. ISBN 0806517999.
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suggested) (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - Schlesinger, Arthur M., Jr. (1997). "Ranking the Presidents: From Washington to Clinton". Political Science Quarterly. 112: 179–190. doi:10.2307/2657937.
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(help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - Skidmore, Max J. (2004). Presidential Performance: A Comprehensive Review. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co. ISBN 0786418206.
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(help) - Skidmore, Max J. (2001). "Ranking and Evaluating Presidents: The Case of Theodore Roosevelt". White House Studies. 1 (4): 495–505. ISSN 1535-4768.
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(help) - Taranto, James (2004). Presidential Leadership: Rating the Best and Worst in the White House. New York: Wall Street Journal Books. ISBN 0743254333.
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suggested) (help) → For Federalist Society surveys. - Vedder, Richard (2001). "Rating Presidential Performance". In Denson, John V. (ed.) (ed.). Reassessing the Presidency: The Rise of the Executive State and the Decline of Freedom. Auburn, AL: Mises Institute. ISBN 0945466293.
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External links
- "Ranking Presidents: Utter Nonsense Or Useful Analysis?, 2001 column by John Dean
- Top 10 Worst US Presidents - The List Universe