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2014 Indian general election

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Indian general election, 2014
← 2009 Before May 31, 2014 (2014-05-31)
All 543 seats in the Lok Sabha
272 seats needed for a majority
  File:Flag of the Indian National Congress.svg 80px×80px
Leader Narendra Modi
(Prime Ministerial Candidate)
Party INC BJP
Alliance UPA NDA
Last election 262 seats,37.22% 137 seats,24.63%
Current seats 228 137
Seats needed Increase44 Increase135
Incumbent Prime Minister

Manmohan Singh
INC



A general election will be the next election for the 16th Lok Sabha in India. Voting will take place in all parliamentary constituencies of India to elect Members of Parliament in the Lok Sabha. The current 15th Lok Sabha will complete its constitutional term on May 31, 2014.[1]

Background

By constitutional requirement, elections to the Lok Sabha must be held at least every five years or whenever parliament is dissolved by the president. The previous election, to the 15th Lok Sabha, was conducted in April–May 2009 and its term would naturally expire on 31 May 2014. The election will be organised by the Election Commission of India (ECI) and are normally held in multiple phases to better handle the large electoral base and security concerns.

Since the last election, the 2011 Indian anti-corruption movement by Anna Hazare, and other similar moves by Baba Ramdev, have galvanised a young population into political participation.[2]

Since the last general election, the BJP has made inroads by winning Vidhan Sabha control of Goa and winning despite a tradition of anti-incumbency in Punjab. However, it lost control of Uttaranchal, Himachel Pradesh and its southern bastion of Karnataka. It also failed in its having its nominated candidate with the 2012 presidential election, particularly after such allies as the Shiv Sena failed to follow coalition lines. Similarly, the Telangana movement for a separate Telengana from Andhra Pradesh also continued with agitations, including the initial central government decision to grant statehood and then rescind it after counter-protests. The move was accompanied by calls for other separate areas including Vidharba and Gorkhaland.

Organisation

Use of technology

In January 2013, the Election Commission of India announced that it would be using an SMS based alert system called Communication Plan for Election (COMET) during the election. The system, aimed at sending messages to the millions of government officials on election duty, was successfully deployed in the assembly polls in Goa, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur in early 2012 and in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat in late 2012. The COMET system "uses coded text messages through mobile phones to collect data about officials, information about scheduled events like staff reaching the polling station, mock polls conducted, start of polling, voting percentages every two hours, number of voters in after voting time was over, and whether the poll party reached safely at the high security Electronic Voting Machine (EVMs) deposit centre." The system would also send alerts to the local police in case of disturbances at any polling station. [3]

Opinion polls

Agency Dates Sample size Results
Times Now-CVoter January-March 2013 No sample size provided UPA 128, NDA 184 [4]
Headlines Today-CVoter April-May 2013 120,000 UPA (no Modi) 132 (with Modi) 155, NDA (no Modi) 179 (with Modi) 220 [5]
The Week - Hansa Research July 2013 No sample size provided NDA 197, UPA 184, Others 162 [6]
CNN-IBN and The Hindu by CSDS July 2013 19,062 in 18 states[7] NDA 172-180, UPA 149-157, Others 208-224[8]
Times Now-India Today-CVoter July 2013 National Cumulative 36,914 over a six months span and 13,052 randomly selected respondents from 18-24 July[9] NDA 156 (BJP 131), UPA 134 (INC 119), Third Front 253 (Samajwadi 33, AIADMK 29)[10]

Campaign

Issues

On 30 July, the Congress Working Committee unanimously passed a resolution for the creation of Telangana. It formally requested the INC-led central government to make steps in accordance with the constitution of India for the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh and the re-creation of Telengana. This was seen as an attempt by the INC to merge the Telangana Rashtra Samiti into itself for the general and provincial election after being marginalised in the Rayalseema and coastal regions by the YSR Congress. All-India Congress Committee General Secretary for Andhra Pradesh Digvijay Singh said that TRS leader K. Chandrashekhar Rao had "repeatedly said that once Telangana was announced, he would merge his party with the Congress. We will await his decision and will be favourably inclined to accept the offer of a merger."[11] TRS welcomed the decision, with Rao saying that his party was fine with Hyderabad being the joint capital for 10 years;[12] Ongole was then suggested as the new capital of Andhra Pradesh.[13] YSR Congress party leader Jaganmohan Reddy said that he opposed the decision and would agitate against it,[14] as all its MLAs resigned over the issue.[15] However, former party member Konda Surekha attacked the party and its leader saying that he had backtracked on plenary party meeting supporting the issue.[16] Andhra Pradesh BJP president G. Kishan Reddy gave credit for the move to Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi in saying that the INC took active interest in the issue after Modi had announced a tour to Hyderabad for 11 August.[17] The BJP national spokesperson Prakash Javadekar suggested that the INC move was under pressure and "that's why we will watch carefully and see whether the intention again to backstab or to really give Telangana, and will watch till Telangana is formed."[18] He added that the BJP supports the creation of "Telangana and Vidarbha’s demand. [The] announcement is the victory of the people of Telangana. BJP has always been in favour of Telangana. Congress promised it in 2004 but dilly-dallied for nine years. It has been a story of the struggle of the people of Telangana and nine years of betrayal by the Congress. The NDA’s agenda in 1999 promised creation of three states, and it was honoured. The Congress, in contrast, made a promise in 2004 but betrayed people for nine years." BJP national President Rajnath Singh re-iterated support and added, in regards to requests for the creation of Gorkhaland and Bodoland, "We were in favour of the Second States Reorganisation Commission earlier too. We now demand that the government should set it up and seek a report within a specific timeframe.[19] The Gorkha Janmukti Morcha also reacted in announcing an indefinite strike in calling for Gorkhaland.[20] Meanwhile, the national Home Ministry said that due to the lack of development in the proposed areas and the proximity to other hotbeds in Chhattishgarh's Bastar and Maharashtra's Gadhidoli regions it could turn into a hotbed for the activities of the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist) if the administration is not quickly consolidated.[21]

Bloomberg also highlighted India's slowing economy amidst a record high current account deficit and a falling rupee. It pointed out to a lack of infrastructure investment and a government increasingly likely to give subsidies the national finances cannot afford just before the election. Other points it mentioned were stagnant policymaking and an inefficient bureaucracy.[22]

Parties

BJP

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was chosen to lead the Bharatiya Janata Party's campaign after a party conclave in Goa.[23][24] This came amid controversy Lal Krishna Advani opposed the decision and resigned from his party posts, only to later rescind his resignation.[25] Murli Manohar Joshi and Sushma Swaraj were part of Team 2014, under Modi's leadership, for the campaign. Rajnath Singh, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani - who had opposed the decision to name Modi in favour of himself[26] - would be the mentors for the BJP's campaign.[27] A 12-member committee,[who?] which will be chaired by Modi, was appointed at the Goa conclave and will have other BJP stalwarts on its committee: M. Venkaiah Naidu, Nitin Gadkari, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Chattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh and Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar. Twenty sub-committees will assist the main committee with focus on such aspects of electioneering, including rallies, publicity, manifesto, social media, courting first time voters, "crowd sourcing" and a "charge-sheet" against the UPA. General Secretary Ananth Kumar said: "All the sub-committees will be steered under the leadership of Narendra Modi...The party has given Modi the responsibility of 2014 elections...Under his leadership the whole campaign will move forward," BJP General Secretary Ananth Kumar said. Gadkari was also tasked with paying "special attention" to Delhi for its forthcoming assembly election; he will be assisted by Amritsar MP Navjot Singh Sidhu.

The sub-committees will be composed of the following:[28]

The manifesto committee will be led by Murli Manohar Joshi and will also feature Darjeeling MP Jaswant Singh, MP Yashwant Sinha, former Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal, Sushil Kumar Modi, Shahnawaz Hussain and others. A vision document, to be released with the manifesto in order to show what the NDA has achieved, will be prepared by Gadkari and Vinay Sahasrabuddhe.

The publicity management with be led by Swaraj and MP Arun Jaitley with the aid of General Secretary Amit Shah and Sudanshu Trivedi. The first time voters, about 20 percent of the electorate, will be managed for the party by Shah, Sidhu and two others. The programme to reach out to professionals will be organised by Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Prakash Javadekar and others. Crowd sourcing will be managed by Dharmendra Pradhan and Rameshwar Chaurasia. Other sub-committees include a team for traditional campaigns composed of Smriti Irani and two others.

Managing the "charge-sheet" against the "misrule" of the UPA in the central government and the provinces, would be Deputy Leader of BJP in Lok Sabha Gopinath Munde, his Rajya Sabha counterpart MP Ravi Shankar Prasad and four others.
Others that will be supporting the campaign - many of whom are members of the Sangh Parivar - will be organized into the campaign by a team led by Gadkari and including Uma Bharati and five others. From August 2013, the party would organise over 100 rallies and will be planned and executed by Ananth Kumar and General Secretary Varun Gandhi.

BJP's Mumbai leader, Ashish Shelar, was said to have kicked of campaign advertisements in the city with Modi's remarks in a summer 2013 interview with Reuters in which he said "I am a Hindu Nationalist."[29] Singh said from the U.S.A.: "It's not necessary that party president should also be a crowd puller and a prime ministerial candidate. I have an assignment to do for my party. I have a job to deliver — that is victory of the party in the 2014 elections. Seven months before the elections, I have nominated Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as Chairman of the party's Election Campaign Committee. What is unusual in that? We have nominated Modi like other parties do and why read between lines. I have named him as campaign head in view of his image, popularity and commitment to the party." He added that more coalition partners would come in as development would be the key issue and not Ram Janmabhoomi.[30]

INC

The Indian National Congress had announced, on the fourth anniversary of the second United Progressive Alliance government, that its campaign for the election would be led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, INC chairperson Sonia Gandhi and General Secretary Rahul Gandhi. Information and Broadcasting Minister Manish Tewari said: "The government and the party have decided while Singh is the PM and Sonia is the Congress chief, Rahul Gandhi has energised the party cadre. So the 2014 elections would be fought under the leadership of the triumvirate."[31] Sonia Gandhi appointed her son Rahul to head a six-member committee to formulate and implement alliances, the party manifesto and general publicity for the election.[32]

In response to sagging opinion poll numbers for the general election, the INC sought to fast-track a decision on separating Telangana from Andhra Pradesh, create a coalition government with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Jharkhand, sought to take sole credit for the Food Security Bill and table a controversial landholding farmer-friendly Land Acquisition Bill.[10]

JDU

National Democratic Alliance partner, Janata Dal (United) expressed its reservation about having Modi as the prime ministerial candidate. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar also unilaterally broke relations with the BJP by ejecting 11 BJP ministers, including his deputy Sushil Kumar Modi on 16 June 2013 (this recalls the break in Orissa between the BJP and the BJD before the 2009 election, which occurred at the same as the provincial election, and the BJP lost its presence there). He then won a vote of confidence in the Bihar Vidhan Sabha and said that "the BJP says this is what party workers want, but the sentiment of party cadres does not reflect that of the country." And in reference to his opposition previously elucidated against Modi he said: "In 2005, for the state election, did an outsider come here (in Bihar)? Was that person allowed here in 2009 for the national election campaign?"[33] In the ensuing war of words between the two parties, the JDU alleged that in the a Gujarat led by Modi there was conspiracy against Bihar. Bihar MLA Manjit Singh said over shouts from BJP MLAs that Modi will be PM that "a conspiracy against Bihar is being hatched in Gujarat. The timers used in Bodhgaya blasts were from Gujarat. The mid-day meal tragedy should also be probed for this Gujarat angle."[34] Janata Party President Subramanian Swamy then called on Kumar to reconsider his decision saying "Nitish has been a respected political colleague of ours since the JP movement days in 1970s....his decision to part ways with the BJP-led NDA has come as a surprise to me. The people want Modi to become the next prime minister to provide strong leadership and good government in the country." He also called on Kumar to return to the NDA in order to ensure the defeat of the INC in the election.[35] At a rally in Bihar, Modi took a veiled attack on Kumar without using his name in saying that "there is a 1974-like anti-Congress wave prevailing in the country now. The mandate of the people of Bihar was for NDA. Like then (in 1974), those who betrayed the people's mandate in Bihar will be taught a lesson."[36] Bihar BJP MP Shatrughan Sinha then said that Kumar is "prime ministerial material. He is among the select few good and successful chief ministers in the country today," he clarified that Kumar was just one of the leaders qualified. "At the end of the day one can become PM only after being chosen by the party and numbers in the elections."[37]

The media speculated that Modi still have a chance of gaining in Bihar at the expense of Kumar's party. During the coalition, Modi was not allowed to speak at rallies in the party by mutual understanding and was only allowed for special events such as a funeral or party conclave, even Modi's flood relief aid to Bihar was termed communal. His popularity was seen as a test case in Bihar and if the BJP could increase its tally or the JDU could; it even speculated if Lalu Prasad Yadav could make a comeback after the 2010 provincial election if he is not convicted over the fodder scam. It also suggested that this would be an eager race as it could determine if Kumar's decision was prudent and if he has any national political scope left; while for Modi it would give crucial seats to the BJP and be able to attract potential allies as Bihar is largely based on caste politics.[38]

RJD

Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad Yadav said of the BJP's ruling chances that "Modi and Advani can never become the prime minister in their lifetime. Secular forces in this country would never allow the saffron outfit to come to power." In relation to the INC's Rahul Gandhi he said that Gandhi wants to bring change to the country; he added in relation to Digvijay Singh that he was a "good man."[39]


References

  1. ^ "Terms of Houses, Election Commission of India". Retrieved June 10, 2013.
  2. ^ "Loksabha election 2014 predictions Survey - Opinion Poll". Seekers Find .in. 2013-01-28. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  3. ^ "EC to use SMS alert system in 2014 Lok Sabha elections". Times of India. Jan 7, 2013.
  4. ^ "2014 Lok Sabha polls: Big losses to UPA, no gain for NDA, survey finds". Times of India. 17 Apr, 2013. Retrieved 2013-06-11. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  5. ^ "Narendra Modi is NDA's trump card for 2014 Lok Sabha polls, reveals Headlines Today C-Voter survey". Indiatoday.intoday.in. 2013-05-21. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  6. ^ "Lok Sabha polls 2014: Narendra Modi top choice for PM, beats Rahul Gandhi, says survey". Indian Express. 2013-07-04. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  7. ^ "Survey Methodology". The Hindu. 22 July, 2013. Retrieved 2013-07-25. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  8. ^ "Poll tracker". CNN-IBN. 26 July, 2013. Retrieved 2013-07-26. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  9. ^ "2014 Poll survey projects NDA making significant gains". economic times. 29 Jul, 2013,. Retrieved 2013-07-29. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)CS1 maint: extra punctuation (link)
  10. ^ a b Sanjay Singh. "Election survey: Congress will lose heavily but the BJP is not winning either". Firstpost. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  11. ^ "Telangana demand met, Congress eyes merger with TRS". Rediff.com. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  12. ^ "Hyderabad joint capital as AP to be split into Telangana, Seemandhra". Ibnlive.in.com. 1946-12-09. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  13. ^ "Ongole, the capital of reconstituted Andhra Pradesh?". Hindustan Times. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  14. ^ "YSR Congress terms Telangana decision undemocratic, threatens protest : Telangana". Indiatoday.intoday.in. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  15. ^ http://www.firstpost.com/fwire/ysr-congress-seeks-to-cash-in-on-united-andhra-sentiment-andhra-newsletter-991393.html
  16. ^ "Jagan destroyed YSR Congress, went back on his words on Telangana issue: Konda Surekha" (in Template:Fr icon). Timesofindia.indiatimes.com. 1970-01-01. Retrieved 2013-07-31.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
  17. ^ "Andhra Pradesh BJP gives Telangana credit to Modi". The Asian Age. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  18. ^ "BJP to monitor carefully UPA's intention on Telangana". News.in.msn.com. 1999-12-31. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  19. ^ "Telangana: Now set up commission for other states, says BJP". Financialexpress.com. 2012-06-12. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  20. ^ "After Telangana, GJM ratchets up Gorkhaland demand". In.news.yahoo.com. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  21. ^ "Telangana may witness spurt in Naxalism: Home Ministry". Ibnlive.in.com. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  22. ^ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-20/india-s-economy-needs-an-early-election.html
  23. ^ "US, India dance awkwardly around the man who might be India's next leader". CSMonitor. May 14, 2013.
  24. ^ Pradhan, Bibhudatta (2013-06-09). "Modi to Manage Election Campaign of India's Main Opposition BJP". Bloomberg. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  25. ^ http://www.firstpost.com/politics/the-aurangzeb-factor-5-lessons-from-modi-advani-tussle-864343.html
  26. ^ http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/letters/advani-and-modi/article4801158.ece
  27. ^ "BJP names team for 2014, Modi at the helm". Hindustan Times. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  28. ^ "Modi's election campaign team for 2014 announced". Rediff.com. 2013-07-19. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  29. ^ Ravi Balakrishnan (2013-07-18). "Hoardings across Mumbai turn spotlight on Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist remark - Economic Times". Economictimes.indiatimes.com. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  30. ^ "BJP chief virtually anoints Modi as PM candidate". Business Standard. 2013-07-22. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  31. ^ "Congress trident to spearhead 2014 campaign". Articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  32. ^ Pradhan, Bibhudatta. "Rahul Gandhi to Lead Congress Campaign for 2014 India Polls". Bloomberg. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  33. ^ "Nitish Kumar's speech, before trust vote, zooms in on Narendra Modi". NDTV.com. 2013-06-19. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  34. ^ "In Narendra Modi's Gujarat, a conspiracy against Bihar, alleges Nitish Kumar's party". NDTV.com. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  35. ^ "Subramanian Swamy asks Nitish Kumar to reconsider snapping ties with BJP". Indian Express. 2013-06-12. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  36. ^ "Nitish Kumar will be taught lesson: Narendra Modi". Articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com. 2013-07-06. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  37. ^ "Shatrughan heaps praise on Nitish Kumar, says Bihar CM is 'prime ministerial material'". Timesofindia.indiatimes.com. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  38. ^ Sanjay Singh. "Why Nitish isn't in the clear yet: Modi factor still to play out in Bihar". Firstpost. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  39. ^ http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/modi-advani-can-never-become-pm-lalu_865016.html

External links

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