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2018 United States Senate election in Michigan

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United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018
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Nominee Debbie Stabenow John James
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic



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The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan will take place on November 6, 2018 in order to elect a Class 1 U.S. Senator to represent the state of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow is running for reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Withdrew

  • Craig Allen Smith

Endorsements

Debbie Stabenow
Organizations
Individuals

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) 100
Total votes 100

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • John James, businessman and Iraq veteran[9][10]

Defeated in primary

Failed to qualify

  • Bob Carr, historic preservationist, businessman and nominee for MI-01 in 1996[12][10]

Declined

Withdrew

Endorsements

John James
U.S. President
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Senators[29][30][31]
State Representatives[29]
Judges
Cabinet-level Officials
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[32]
Individuals
Local Officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Sandy Pensler
Bob Young Jr. (endorsed James)
Notable Figures

Debates

A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[60]

Polling

Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		John
James 		Sandy
Pensler 		Other Undecided
Mitchell Research July 30, 2018 413 ± 5.0% 44% 30% – 26%
EPIC-MRA July 21–22, 2018 1,045 ± 3.1% 39% 38% – 23%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 202 ± 7.3% 28% 28% – 44%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 337 ± 6.3% 30% 23% 1% 46%
National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC) July 11–14, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 21% 28% 10% 41%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 29% 32% – 39%
Strategic National (R) June 16–21, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 18% 33% – 49%
Strategic National (R) June 9–10, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 16% 29% – 54%
Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler) May 28–29, 2018 627 ± 3.8% 26% 36% – 38%
Strategic National (R) April 21, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 13% 26% – 61%
Strategic National (R) April 4–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 12% 20% – 68%
Denno Research April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 12% 16% – 72%
Strategic National (R) March 19–20, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 17% 21% – 62%

Results

Republican primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John James 516,698 54.7
Republican Sandy Pensler 428,445 45.3
Total votes 945,143 100

Libertarian primary

Declared

  • Brian Ellison, Iraq veteran[62] (Failed to qualify)

Green Party Convention

Declared

Withdrew

Natural Law Party

  • John Wilhelm


General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[66] Likely D December 15, 2017
Inside Elections[67] Solid D December 13, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] Likely D December 13, 2017
Fox News[69] Likely D^ July 9, 2018
CNN[70] Likely D July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[71] Likely D June 26, 2018

^Highest rating given

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Debbie
Stabenow (D) 		John
James (R) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 47% 29% 8% 17%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 886 ± 3.9% 55% 37% 1% 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 978 ± 5.0% 54% 42% – 4%
Glengariff Group January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 51% 30% – 18%

References

  1. ^ Demas, Susan J. (October 2, 2015). "Susan J. Demas: Can Republicans finally knock off Debbie Stabenow in 2018?". MLive.com. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
  2. ^ Everett, Burgess (November 17, 2016). "Reeling Democrats confront brutal 2018 Senate map". Politico. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
  3. ^ Oosting, Jonathan (February 11, 2017). "Michigan Democrats promise 'fight' at record convention". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
  4. ^ "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
  5. ^ a b "Major Environmental Groups Endorse Sen. Debbie Stabenow for Re-Election". League of Conservation Voters. May 2, 2018.
  6. ^ "MI List Progressive Women in Politics".
  7. ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". 16 July 2012.
  8. ^ Chelsea Handler. "Michigan- your primary is August 7. Please vote. Gretchen Driskell (MI-07) @gdriskell Elissa Slotkin (MI-08) @ElissaSlotkin Ellen Lipton (MI-09) @RepLipton Debbie Stabenow (MI-SEN) @stabenow Gretchen Whitmer (MI-GOV) @gretchenwhitmer Jocelyn Benson – (MI-SOS) @JocelynBenson". Twitter. {{cite web}}: line feed character in |title= at position 86 (help)
  9. ^ "Metro Detroit businessman John James joins U.S. Senate race".
  10. ^ a b c "2018 Michigan Unofficial Primary Candidate Listing - 08/07/2018". miboecfr.nictusa.com.
  11. ^ "Businessman Sandy Pensler announces U.S. Senate run".
  12. ^ Boothe, Daniel. "Michigan Historic Preservationist Bob Carr announces candidacy for US Senate". Retrieved 2017-10-24.
  13. ^ Gray, Kathleen (February 19, 2017). "Michigan GOP sees opening for U.S. Senate bid in 2018". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved February 21, 2017.
  14. ^ "Ted Nugent Considering Running for U.S. Senate". Ultimate Classic Rock.
  15. ^ McCollum, Brian (October 24, 2017). "Kid Rock: Of course I'm not running for Senate". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved October 24, 2017.
  16. ^ Nann Burke, Melissa (February 1, 2017). "Rep. Upton considers challenge to Sen. Stabenow". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 7, 2017.
  17. ^ "U.S. Rep. Fred Upton opts against Senate run".
  18. ^ "Raczkowski, Epstein enter race to succeed Trott".
  19. ^ "Young drops out of GOP Senate race in Michigan".
  20. ^ a b "Young endorses James in GOP primary for Senate".
  21. ^ Donald J. Trump. ".@JohnJamesMI, who is running in the Republican Primary in the great state of Michigan, is SPECTACULAR! Vote on August 7th. Rarely have I seen a candidate with such great potential. West Point graduate, successful businessman and a African American leader..." Twitter.
  22. ^ Donald J. Trump. "...John is strong on crime and borders, loves our Military, our Vets and our Second Amendment. He will be a star. He has my full and total Endorsement!". Twitter.
  23. ^ Mike Pence. "Proud to support @JohnJamesMI for U.S. Senate. Leaders like John are the FUTURE of the GOP. I know he will be a strong champion of @RealDonaldTrump's agenda. To the great people of Michigan - get out & vote Aug 7 for John!". Twitter.
  24. ^ "Conservative Outsider John James Announces Endorsement of Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio - John James for Senate". 5 December 2017.
  25. ^ "Huizenga Throws Support to James' US Senate Campaign". WHTC. 10 July 2018.
  26. ^ "Mike Bishop Endorses John James for Senate - John James for Senate". 20 November 2017.
  27. ^ "Rep. Paul Mitchell Endorses John James for U.S. Senate - John James for Senate". 7 November 2017.
  28. ^ West, Allen (October 27, 2017). "I wholeheartedly endorse John James for U.S. Senate in Michigan". Allen B. West website.
  29. ^ a b "30 Conservative Republicans from the Michigan Legislature Endorse John James for Senate". John James for Senate.
  30. ^ "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate". 5 July 2018.
  31. ^ . 10 July 2018 https://www.facebook.com/rick.jones.GrandLedge/posts/10216760484664405. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  32. ^ "No Excuses". secure.johnjamesforsenate.com.
  33. ^ "Conservative Outsider John James Announces Endorsement of American Hero Robert O'Neill - John James for Senate". 8 November 2017.
  34. ^ "Dean Cain on Twitter".
  35. ^ John James. ".@KidRock: "I'm 100% here to endorse, and do everything I can, to make sure John James gets in the Senate." #LetsFlyMI #TeamJohnJames #MISen". Twitter.
  36. ^ https://twitter.com/hughhewitt/status/996828921382420480
  37. ^ Cavitt, Mark (July 23, 2018). "Ted Nugent endorses John James for U.S. Senate". The Oakland Press.
  38. ^ https://twitter.com/JohnJamesMI/status/1010302686200123392
  39. ^ "John James on Twitter".
  40. ^ "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate".
  41. ^ "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate".
  42. ^ John James. "PROUD to have the endorsement of Sterling Heights Mayor, Michael Taylor. MACOMB COUNTY is JAMES COUNTRY!". Twitter.
  43. ^ "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate".
  44. ^ "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate".
  45. ^ "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate".
  46. ^ "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate". 5 July 2018.
  47. ^ "John James for Senate in Michigan". Senate Conservatives Fund. January 30, 2018.
  48. ^ "ACU Endorses John James". American Conservative Union. March 22, 2018.
  49. ^ "John James Emerges as Sole Conservative to take on Sen. Debbie Stabenow - John James for Senate". 25 April 2018.
  50. ^ "James Raises $1.17 Million, Quadruples Grassroots Fundraising Base during Q1 - John James for Senate". 11 April 2018.
  51. ^ https://twitter.com/JohnJamesMI/status/993877773830819840
  52. ^ "GR Chamber PAC Announces 2018 Endorsements". Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce. June 6, 2018.
  53. ^ https://www.sba-list.org/newsroom/press-releases/sba-list-endorses-john-james-us-senate-mi
  54. ^ https://twitter.com/JohnJamesMI/status/1008765560597999616
  55. ^ "Chamber Announces Endorsements for US Senate, AG and Key Congressional Races". Michigan Chamber of Commerce. June 27, 2018.
  56. ^ "In GOP Senate primary, John James". The Detroit News. July 19, 2018.
  57. ^ "Sen. Rand Paul endorses Pensler in Michigan GOP Primary". Fox17. 30 July 2018. Retrieved 31 July 2018.
  58. ^ a b "Republicans in Trump Country Unite Behind Sandy Pensler for US Senate". Pensler for Senate. April 9, 2018.
  59. ^ "Bob Young, Jr". www.facebook.com.
  60. ^ https://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/07/james_pensler_spar_in_first_go.html
  61. ^ "United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018".
  62. ^ Edevane, Gillian (March 16, 2018). "Arm Homeless People With Shotguns and Ban TSA, Senate Candidate Says". Newsweek.
  63. ^ "Mich. House OKs dead lawmaker's bill in vote of unity".
  64. ^ Cwiek, Sarah (August 31, 2017). "Green Party candidates jump in race for Michigan governor, U.S. Senator". Michigan Radio. Retrieved October 27, 2017.
  65. ^ motownbelle (20 October 2017). "Why I Suspended My Senatorial Campaign" – via YouTube.
  66. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  67. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  68. ^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  69. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  70. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  71. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
Official campaign websites
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