2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

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Republican presidential primaries, 2012
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Barack Obama
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The Republican presidential primaries for the United States presidential election of 2012 will be held in the 2012 calendar year and be used to determine the presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Calendar

Guidelines for primary and caucus dates

A temporary committee of the Republican National Committee (RNC), set up in 2010, recommended a new plan. Under this plan, the traditional states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina) would hold their events in February, states' elected delegates proportionally could hold their events in March, with winner-take-all states and any other remaining states holding their events from April onward.[1] The amendment was passed in August 2010 by the full RNC by a vote of 144–103.[2]

Straw polls

January 22, 2011, Derry, NH – New Hampshire Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 New Hampshire Straw Poll were as follows:

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Mitt Romney 35%
2 Ron Paul 11%
3 Tim Pawlenty 8%
4 Sarah Palin 7%
5 Michele Bachmann 5%
6 Jim DeMint 5%
7 Herman Cain 4%
8 Chris Christie 3%
9 Rick Santorum 3%
10 Mitch Daniels 3%
11 Newt Gingrich 3%
12 Mike Huckabee 3%
13 Mike Pence 3%

[3]

February 10–12, 2011, Washington, DC – CPAC Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 CPAC Straw Poll were as follows:

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Ron Paul 30%
2 Mitt Romney 23%
3 Gary E. Johnson 6%
4 Chris Christie 6%
5 Newt Gingrich 5%
6 Tim Pawlenty 4%
7 Michelle Bachmann 4%
8 Mitch Daniels 4%
9 Sarah Palin 3%
10 Herman Cain 2%
11 Mike Huckabee 2%
12 Rick Santorum 2%
13 John Thune 2%
14 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 1%
15 Haley Barbour 1%

[4]

February 27, 2011, Phoenix, AZ – Tea Party Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 Tea Party Straw Poll were as follows:

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Herman Cain 22%
2 Tim Pawlenty 16%
3 Ron Paul 15%
4 Sarah Palin 10%
5 Mitt Romney 7%
6 Michelle Bachmann 6%

[5]

March 6, 2011, Seaside, OR – Dorchester Conference Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 Dorchester Conference Straw Poll were as follows:

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Mitch Daniels 30%
2 Mitt Romney 23%
3 Sarah Palin 18%
4 Mike Huckabee 10%
5 Newt Gingrich 6%
6 Ron Paul 5%
7 Tim Pawlenty 4%
8 Haley Barbour 2%
9 Donald Trump 2%

[6]

August 13, 2011, Ames, IA – Iowa Straw Poll

October 7–9, 2011, Washington, DC – Values Voter Straw Poll

November 5, 2011, Springfield, IL – Illinois Republican Straw Poll[7]

Debates

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential debates, 2012

The following debates have been scheduled so far:[8][9]

Primary and caucus dates

  • January 31, 2012 - Florida [10]
  • February 1 – March 5, 2012: Early states (Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, Nevada caucuses, South Carolina primary)[11]
    • February 6 – Confirmed date of the Iowa caucuses[12]
    • February 14 – Expected date of New Hampshire primary
    • February 18 – Confirmed date of the Nevada caucuses
  • March 6–31, 2012: Primaries (and other contests) that provide for proportional allocation of delegates to the candidates, and all nonbinding caucuses;
  • April 1, 2012 onward: All other contests.

Convention

The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled to take place the week of August 27, 2012[13] in Tampa, Florida,[14] the week prior to when the 2012 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place.[15]

Candidates

The following individuals have formally announced that they are running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 and/or have filed as a candidate for such with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Declared


Perennial candidate Jimmy McMillan from New York (Website) 		On December 23, 2010, McMillan announced on Revolution Radio that he will seek the Republican nomination for President. McMillan, a registered Democrat and founder of the non-qualified Rent Is Too Damn High Party, stated he wanted to avoid a Democratic primary and would switch to the Republican Party to run.[16][17][18]

Formed exploratory committee

The following people have formed an exploratory committee to examine the prospects of a campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.


Radio talk show host Herman Cain of Georgia

(campaign)
(website)

Cain announced in January of 2011 that he had formed an exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination[19][20]
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia

(campaign)
(website)

On March 3, 2011, filed papers with the I.R.S. designating Newt Exploratory 2012 as a new organization formed to explore a possible candidacy.[21][22]

Political consultant and gay rights activist Fred Karger of California (website) 		In August of 2010, Karger formed an exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.[23][24][25]
Former Governor Buddy Roemer of Louisiana

(campaign) (website)

Announced a exploratory committee on Thursday, March 3, according to National Journal.[26]

[27]

Prospective candidates

Current

As the primaries are not scheduled to begin until early 2012, it is too early to definitively determine which prominent public figures will run. The following is a list of individuals who are being discussed – in two or more unique, reputable sources that are less than three months old – in regard to the 2012 primary. They are listed in order of the date of the most recent media citation.


Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana 		March 6, 2011: The Washington Post reported "Let us not mince words. There are at most five plausible Republican presidents on the horizon - Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former Utah governor and departing ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, former Massachusetts governor Romney and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty."[28]

March 9, 2011: An editorial from Fort Wayne's News Sentential read, "There are a handful of deficit warriors, Daniels prominent among them, who are goading us not to waste this moment. Daniels may or may not have the desire or the ability to turn his newfound political celebrity into a presidential run. But he already deserves our profound thanks for refusing to let us ignore the obvious."[29]


Former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota 		March 9, 2011: The Washington Post reported "On paper, Tim Pawlenty may be the most formidable Republican challenger to President Obama in 2012."[30]

March 9, 2011: KMSP-TV reported "Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty is making headlines for the speech he gave on Monday night in Iowa, but he’s still not saying definitively if he will make a bid for the country’s highest office. At the gathering, Pawlenty and four other potential Republican candidates held a forum with the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, an influential conservative group in the state. Pawlenty spoke forcefully in his speech, accusing the federal government of trying to marginalize social conservatives. He also spoke about his faith and proudly discussed his role in the 2005 government shutdown and for cutting the deficit and allotments in 2009."[31]


United States Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, Jr. of Utah 		March 8, 2011: Politico reported "To listen to them tell it, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is a health care visionary and U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman is a loyal foot soldier of the administration. The political calculus behind that praise is straightforward: by wrapping their arms around some of the GOP’s most credible and deep-pocketed potential challengers, Democrats undermine the party’s attempt to win over its conservative base in the primary."[32]

March 8, 2011: Roll Call reported "State Rep. Carl Wimmer and state Sen. Howard Stephenson, two Utah Republicans who have dealt with Huntsman over the years, each described the ambassador as honest, respectful, likeable, politically astute — and moderate. Neither expects Huntsman to fare well in the 2012 GOP presidential primary, should he run."[33]


Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts 		March 8, 2011: The Hill reported "The second-ranking House Republican said that healthcare wasn't a dealbreaker for Mitt Romney's presidential aspirations. While other Republicans have ramped up their criticism of the former Massachusetts governor, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said that the fight over healthcare in Washington wouldn't cancel out Romney's presidential ambitions."[34]

March 8, 2011: Roll Call reported "In 2008, Huntsman backed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for president over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a fellow Mormon who is expected to run again in 2012. Huntsman’s supporters refute charges that he is insufficiently conservative, describing him as a statesman who could provide conservative leadership while still reaching across the aisle to forge consensus."[35]


Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi 		March 6, 2011: The Clarion-Ledger reported The latest Gallup poll puts him leading the pack of potential GOP contenders for president, ahead of Mississippi's own Gov. Haley Barbour."[36]

March 6, 2011: The Washington Post reported "Let us not mince words. There are at most five plausible Republican presidents on the horizon - Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former Utah governor and departing ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, former Massachusetts governor Romney and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty."[37]


Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas 		February 24, 2011: Huckabee said on The Colbert Report that he was "strongly considering" a run.

March 6, 2011: The Clarion-Ledger reported "A possible candidate for the 2012 GOP nomination for president, Huckabee has grabbed headlines over the past week because of comments he made about pregnant Oscar winner Natalie Portman."[38]


Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota 		February 17, 2011: ABC News reported "The second is the 'very serious, but still undecided' category. This includes: Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, and Mike Huckabee."[39]

February 21, 2011: MSNBC reported Rep. Michele Bachmann “spoke Saturday to the South Carolina Federation of Republican Women, sounding like she was on the campaign trail. She called the state a “GOP paradise.”[40]


Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania 		February 17, 2011: Mother Jones magazine reported "The fact that Santorum can't generate enough web traffic to bury the Savage's seven-year-old site in the Google rankings suggests that winning the bigot vote won't be enough to put him in the White House."[41]

February 17, 2011: ABC News reported "The first is the 'almost certain to run' category: in this camp you’ll find Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum."[42]


Businessman Donald Trump of New York 		February 17, 2011: New York Daily News published an opinion piece that said "Rather than analyze whether The Donald will run, the right should be amplifying his attacks. Hair aside, he's a valuable spokesman who might be paving the way for an Obama exit."[43]

February 17, 2011: CNN noted "Consistency is encouraged as well as sticking with one's decisions. But can the would-be Republican presidential candidate meet his own test – and will conservatives hire him?"[44]


Representative Ron Paul of Texas 		February 15, 2011: Reuters reported "So he’s running for president again. And no matter what Donald Trump says, Paul is clear – and nicely wry – about his chances of getting elected."[45]

February 24, 2011: Roll Call reported "Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) told supporters his Presidents Day “money bomb” raised $730,000 and that he will boost his political travel in the coming weeks."[46]


Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico 		February 11, 2011: The Atlantic reported: "On paper, Gary Johnson seems to fit right in with the rest of the potential 2012 Republican presidential field."[47]

February 11, 2011: Politico reported: "Supporters carried 'Gary Johnson Rocks' and 'Gary Johnson for President 2012' signs — and they cheered loudly for his proposal to legalize pot."[48]


Former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska 		February 5, 2011: Hot Air reported "Recent conventional wisdom would say that Washington insiders are distinctly out of favor, and traditional campaign strategy for the GOP tends to indicate that it’s better to be considered more conservative in the primary race... we find that Sarah Palin is clearly the next Republican presidential nominee ."[49]

February 17, 2011:Yahoo News reported "The people of America are saying enough is enough. Tone-deaf politicians are going to be fired if they don't listen. That's what going rogue is all about. People want our government establishment to be shaken up. No more pre-ordained candidates. I think it will be an unconventional political cycle." Palin also noted that should she run, she has a clear advantage, saying, "No one is more qualified, really to multi-tasking and the things you need to do as president than a woman, a mom." [50]


Representative Steve King of Iowa 		December 22, 2010: The Huffington Post reported: "Rep. King also addressed rumors that he might throw his name in the ring for president in 2012 and laid down some conditions that could prompt a run. 'I have said that I'm short only two things and that is a calling and groundswell,' King explained. 'So if those two things emerge, I'll be engaged in it 100 percent.'"[51]

February 10, 2011: Politico reported: "Despite the fact that no sitting House member has won the presidency since 1880, several House members — among them Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Iowa Rep. Steve King — have said they would consider running under the right circumstances."[52]


Former Governor Bob Riley of Alabama 		February 7, 2011: The Birmingham News reported "Bob Riley, who three weeks ago completed eight years as governor, is being encouraged to seek the GOP nomination for president in 2012 and is actively considering the possibility, sources inside and outside Alabama said."[53]

February 7, 2011: Politico reported "the potential player-to-be-named-later who is just getting on the radar Bob Riley, recently the ex-governor of Alabama after wrapping up eight years at the helm of the southern state. And he's reportedly planning on hopscotching around northern U.S. states, not in an RV or bus, but on a motorcycle."[54]


Former Governor George Pataki of New York 		February 3, 2011: Politico reported: "George Pataki could make his decision on a White House bid as early as this month, according to an Iowa fundraiser with ties to the former New York governor." [55]

February 5, 2011: Hot Air reported: "Recent conventional wisdom would say that Washington insiders are distinctly out of favor, and traditional campaign strategy for the GOP tends to indicate that it’s better to be considered more conservative in the primary race. By that logic, Giuliani, Huntsman and Pataki would have the absolute worst chance... George Pataki should begin knitting sweaters for the residents of Hell if he plans on winning." [56]


Former United States Ambassador to the United Nations John R. Bolton of Maryland 		January 24, 2011: Yahoo! News mentioned Bolton as a possible candidate for the 2012 presidential race.[57]

February 2, 2011: Politico reported "Among the most strident recent critics of the Obama administration is one of the least-known 2012 GOP presidential prospects: former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton.[58]


Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York 		January 22, 2011: CNN reported "The names on the straw poll ballot will be listed in alphabetical order.

They are: Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Mitch Daniels, Jim DeMint, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Judd Gregg, Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, John Thune and Donald Trump."[59]

February 21, 2011: MSNBC reported that “Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be back in New Hampshire next month. Giuliani will be at the Manchester Republican Committee's Lincoln Reagan Dinner on March 18,” fueling speculation of a 2012 bid. [60]

Declined to run

The following people, who were speculated to be potential candidates have – following the 2010 midterm elections – clearly and unequivocally denied interest publicly, or released Shermanesque statements. This also includes anyone who has endorsed a declared candidate.

Previous

The following people have been the object of presidential speculation in past media reports, but have not recently signaled an interest in actually running:

Hypothetical polling

References

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