2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

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Republican presidential primaries, 2012
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Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic



The Republican presidential primaries for the United States presidential election of 2012 will be held in the 2012 calendar year and be used to determine the presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Calendar

Guidelines for primary and caucus dates

A temporary committee of the Republican National Committee (RNC), set up in 2010, recommended a new plan. Under this plan, the traditional states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina) would hold their events in February, states' elected delegates proportionally could hold their events in March, with winner-take-all states and any other remaining states holding their events from April onward.[1] The amendment was passed in August 2010 by the full RNC by a vote of 144–103.[2]

Straw polls

January 22, 2011, Derry, New Hampshire – New Hampshire Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 New Hampshire Straw Poll were as follows:[3]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Mitt Romney 35%
2 Ron Paul 11%
3 Tim Pawlenty 8%
4 Sarah Palin 7%
5 Michele Bachmann 5%
6 Jim DeMint 5%
7 Herman Cain 4%
8 Chris Christie 3%
9 Rick Santorum 3%
10 Mitch Daniels 3%
11 Newt Gingrich 3%
12 Mike Huckabee 3%
13 Mike Pence 3%
February 10–12, 2011, Washington, D.C. – CPAC Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 CPAC Straw Poll were as follows:[4]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Ron Paul 30%
2 Mitt Romney 23%
3 Gary E. Johnson 6%
4 Chris Christie 6%
5 Newt Gingrich 5%
6 Tim Pawlenty 4%
7 Michele Bachmann 4%
8 Mitch Daniels 4%
9 Sarah Palin 3%
10 Herman Cain 2%
11 Mike Huckabee 2%
12 Rick Santorum 2%
13 John Thune 2%
14 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 1%
15 Haley Barbour 1%
February 27, 2011, Phoenix, Arizona – Tea Party Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 Tea Party Straw Poll were as follows:[5]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Herman Cain 22%
2 Tim Pawlenty 16%
3 Ron Paul 15%
4 Sarah Palin 10%
5 Mitt Romney 7%
6 Michele Bachmann 6%
March 6, 2011, Seaside, Oregon – Dorchester Conference Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 Dorchester Conference Straw Poll were as follows:[6]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Mitch Daniels 30%
2 Mitt Romney 23%
3 Sarah Palin 18%
4 Mike Huckabee 10%
5 Newt Gingrich 6%
6 Ron Paul 5%
7 Tim Pawlenty 4%
8 Haley Barbour 2%
9 Donald Trump 2%
March 15, 2011, Washington, D.C. – National League of Cities Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 National League of Cities Straw Poll were as follows:[7]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Mitt Romney 53%
2 Mike Huckabee 9%
3 Mitch Daniels 6%
4 Newt Gingrich 6%
5 Haley Barbour 3%
6 Donald Trump 3%
7 Chris Christie 3%
8 Jon Huntsman 3%
9 Sarah Palin 3%
10 Paul Ryan 3%
11 Ted Turner 3%
12 Joe Wilson 3%
March 20, 2011, Sacramento, California – Republican Liberty Caucus of California Presidential Straw Poll

Republican Liberty Caucus straw poll at the 2011 California Republican convention [8]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage Votes
1 Ron Paul 17.8% 36
2 Mitt Romney 10.9% 22
3 Sarah Palin 7.9% 16
4 Newt Gingrich 6.9% 14
5 Michele Bachmann 6.4% 13
6 Rudy Giuliani 5.4% 11
6 Mike Huckabee 5.4% 11
6 Tim Pawlenty 5.4% 11
9 Mitch Daniels 5.0% 10
9 Undecided 5.0% 10

Finishing with less than ten votes were, in order, John R. Bolton (8), Gary E. Johnson (7), Herman Cain (5), Haley Barbour (4), Rick Santorum (4), Jon Huntsman, Jr. (3), Donald Trump (3), Chris Christie (2), Jim DeMint (2), Marco Rubio (2), Scott Walker (2), Paul Ryan (1), Colin Powell (1), Allen West (1), Tom McClintock (1), Dana Perino (1), and None of the Above (1). [8]

August 13, 2011, Ames, Iowa – Ames Straw Poll
September 22, 2011, Orlando, Florida – Presidency 5 straw poll[9]
October 7–9, 2011, Washington, D.C. – Values Voter Straw Poll
November 5, 2011, Springfield, Illinois – Illinois Republican Straw Poll[10]

Debates

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential debates, 2012

The following debates have been scheduled so far:[11][12]

Primary and caucus dates

  • February 1 – March 5, 2012: Early states (Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, Nevada caucuses, South Carolina primary)[13]
    • February 6 – Confirmed date of the Iowa caucuses[14]
    • February 14 – Expected date of New Hampshire primary
    • February 18 – Confirmed date of the Nevada caucuses
  • March 6–31, 2012: Primaries (and other contests) that provide for proportional allocation of delegates to the candidates, and all nonbinding caucuses;
  • April 1, 2012 onward: All other contests.

Convention

The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled to take place the week of August 27, 2012[15] in Tampa, Florida,[16] the week prior to when the 2012 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place.[17]

Candidates

The following individuals have formally announced that they are running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 and/or have filed as a candidate for such with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Declared


Political consultant and gay rights activist Fred Karger of California (website) 		In August 2010, Karger formed an exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.[18][19][20] On March 23, 2011 Karger officially filed his paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission, becoming the second declared candidate for the 2012 Republican nomination.[21][22]
Perennial candidate and Birther movement activist Andy Martin of Illinois (website) 		On December 29, 2010, Martin announced in New Hampshire that he is making an official bid for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.[23][24]

Perennial candidate Jimmy McMillan from New York (website) 		On December 23, 2010, McMillan announced on Revolution Radio that he will seek the Republican nomination for President. McMillan, a registered Democrat and founder of the non-qualified Rent Is Too Damn High Party, stated he wanted to avoid a Democratic primary and would switch to the Republican Party to run.[25][26][27]

Announced exploration of potential candidacy

The following people either have formed, or have indicated an intention to form, an exploratory committee to examine the prospects of a campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.


Business magnate and radio talk show host Herman Cain of Georgia

(campaign)
(website)

Cain announced in January of 2011 that he had formed an exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination[28][29]
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia

(campaign)
(website)

On March 3, 2011, filed papers with the I.R.S. designating Newt Exploratory 2012 as a new organization formed to explore a possible candidacy.[30][31]

Former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota

(campaign)
(website)

Pawlenty announced the formation of an exploratory committee on March 21, 2011.[32]
Former Governor Buddy Roemer of Louisiana

(campaign) (website)

Announced the formation of an exploratory committee on March 3, 2011.[33][34]

Prospective candidates

Current

As the primaries are not scheduled to begin until early 2012, it is too early to definitively determine which prominent public figures will run. The following is a list of individuals who are being discussed – in two or more unique, reputable sources that are less than one month old – in regard to the 2012 primary. They are listed in order of the date of the most recent media citation.


Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico 		March 29, 2011: Politico reported "Gary Johnson will formally announce his candidacy for president on April 21 in New Hampshire, an aide told POLITICO. The former New Mexico governor will skip creating an exploratory committee — the traditional path of many of his potential GOP rivals — to immediately start campaigning and fundraising in the first-in-nation primary state."[35]

March 29, 2011: KOB.com: "Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson still won’t say if he’ll announce a 2012 presidential bid next month, despite media reports."[36]


United States Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, Jr. of Utah 		March 28, 2011: Mother Jones reported "Jon Huntsman, former Utah governor and outgoing US ambassador to China, is inching toward an official run for the White House in 2012."[37]

March 29, 2011: Bloomberg News reported "U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman is interested in running for president in 2012 or 2016, his brother Peter Huntsman said."[38]


Former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court Roy Moore of Alabama 		March 28, 2011: Chicago Tribune reported that when asked about the presidency, Moore replied: "It's safe to say that I'm considering it. I've been asked about running for president for many years." [39]

March 29, 2011: USA Today reported "Roy Moore, the former Alabama Supreme Court judge whose monument to the Ten Commandments gained him national attention, intends to explore a presidential bid for 2012."[40]


Former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee of Florida[41] 		March 27, 2011: Politico: "Poll the early primary states and the former Arkansas governor is winning. Match up any of the 2012 contenders with President Barack Obama and Huckabee usually runs the strongest."[42]

March 28, 2011: The Hill wrote: "Sources close to Huckabee told Fox News this month that he is “literally 50-50” on a run, and Saltsman says Huckabee is well-aware of the risks and rewards."[43]


Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts 		March 26, 2011: RealClearPolitics: "Mitt Romney placed a respectable second in the 2008 Iowa presidential caucuses and still polls at the highest tier here in most of the recent surveys of the 2012 GOP field."[44]

March 29, 2011: National Journal reported "Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to be seen as the favorite for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination according to a special National Journal Political Insiders Poll released on Tuesday."[45]


Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota 		March 25, 2011: The New York Times: "Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota seized the media spotlight on Thursday by merely leaking out the possibility that she might — someday, maybe months from now — form an exploratory committee to consider running for president."[46]

March 28, 2011: National Review Online: "If Michele Bachmann decides to run for president, a likely possibility considering she will form an exploratory committee this summer, she could be a game-changer in Iowa — and possibly win the caucuses."[47]


Representative Ron Paul of Texas 		March 25, 2011: Politico reported "Texas Rep. Ron Paul will decide in "the next month or two" whether to run for president."[48]

March 28, 2011: Bangor Daily News reported "Paul left [a formal gathering in New Hampshire] not only with the crowd chanting for him to run for presidency in 2012, but by asking the crowd to do its best to spread the word about the importance of liberty."[49]


Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York 		March 19, 2011: Politico reported "It was [Giuliani's] first trip to New Hampshire of the 2012 cycle, and the first since he made clear he’s contemplating another run for president — one that could offer redemption for his dismal fourth-place finish in the first-in-the-nation primary last time."[50]

March 28, 2011: The Sacramento Bee reported "While he only garners 8% of overall adults and just 7% of Republicans in the primary field, Rudy Giuliani is the only candidate on the [ Harris Poll ] list who edges out President Obama in a head to head match-up, 51% to 49%."[51]


Former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska 		March 13, 2011: In an opinion-editorial in The Hill, former New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg listed Palin as a potential presidential candidate who could still be viable even if she didn't do well in the New Hampshire primary.[52]

March 27, 2011: Reuters: "Palin has relied on her appearances on Fox News and often caustic comments on her Facebook page to rally support for conservative causes and perhaps prepare the ground for a run against Democratic President Barack Obama."[53]


Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky 		March 24, 2011: The Hill reported "Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said Thursday he intends to "explore" a run for president in 2012 should his father, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), decide against another campaign."[54]

March 25, 2011: WCPO.com: " Kentucky Senator Rand Paul won’t rule out a run for the White House in 2012."[55]


Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana 		March 23, 2011: The Wall Street Journal reported "Mitch Daniels, the Republican governor of Indiana, could prove to be a viable challenger to President Obama in 2012."[56]

March 24, 2011: The Journal Gazette reported, "Gov. Mitch Daniels said Thursday he has not made a decision on whether he will run for president in 2012."[57]


Businessman Donald Trump of New York 		March 23, 2011: USA Today reported "Trump has said he'll make a decision by June whether to run for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012."[58]

March 23, 2011: New York Post reported "Real estate magnate Donald Trump will deliver a speech in the all-important presidential campaign state of Iowa in June, escalating expectations that the mogul is quite serious about mounting a possible 2012 White House run."[59]


Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi 		March 20, 2011: Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reported "Republican Haley Barbour sat in one of those beige hotel meeting rooms that fill this city of endless meetings. Nearing the end of his second and final term as Mississippi's governor, he hasn't formally declared but clearly is on the verge of running for president." [60]

March 21, 2011: The Washington Post reported "Those likely candidates include former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, seen as a fragile frontrunner in the GOP sweepstakes; Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who has been locking up talent and traveling to key states; and former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who has done everything to show he plans to run except form a presidential committee."[61]


Former United States Ambassador to the United Nations John R. Bolton of Maryland 		March 18, 2011: The Los Angeles Times reported that Bolton "is weighing a presidential run in 2012."[62]

March 21, 2011: The San Francisco Chronicle reported that Haley Barbour and Bolton are "possible 2012 presidential candidates."[63]


Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania 		March 15, 2011: The Boston Herald reported "The Bay State’s signature health-care reform law could sink former Gov. Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign, warned former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, a Pennsylvania Republican who’s been eying a presidential run."[64]

March 18, 2011: The State Column reported "Mr. Santorum, who endorsed Mr. Romney in 2008, said he does not plan to support Mr. Romney in 2012 because “It’s a different field. It’s a different set of issues.”The announcement comes as Mr. Santorum prepares for his own run for president. The Pennsylvania Republican has traveled to a number of states in recent months, meeting with potential supporters and key political figures."[65]

Declined to run

The following people, who were speculated to be potential candidates have – following the 2010 midterm elections – clearly and unequivocally denied interest publicly, or released Shermanesque statements. This also includes anyone who has endorsed a declared candidate.

Previous

The following people have been the object of presidential speculation in past media reports, but have not recently signaled an interest in actually running. This gallery does not include people who have declined to run (See above).

Hypothetical polling

References

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