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2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Tomissonneil (talk | contribs) at 20:08, 26 June 2023 (The previous figures referred to Russians killed across the ENTIRETY of Ukraine, rather than just to the counteroffensive (which still takes up most of it, but its still not technically accurate).). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive
Part of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.svg
Date4 June 2023 (2023-06-04)[1][2][3][a] – present
(1 year, 3 months, 1 week and 1 day)
Location
Southern Ukraine (Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast) and Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast, Luhansk Oblast)
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes		 Per Ukraine:
10 villages in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts recaptured and advances around Bakhmut[4]
Belligerents
Ukraine Ukraine Russia Russia
Commanders and leaders
Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi[5]
Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi[6]		 Russia Valery Gerasimov[7]
Russia Sergey Goryachev †[8]
Russia Sergey Kuzovlev[7]
Russia Mikhail Teplinsky[7]
Russia Alexander Romanchuk[7]
Units involved

 Armed Forces of Ukraine

 Russian Armed Forces

Strength
50,000–60,000 soldiers (Western-trained brigades only)[22][23] 350,000–400,000+ soldiers[24]
Casualties and losses
Per Russia:
1,500 soldiers killed (as of 14 June)[25]
25–30% of military vehicles destroyed[26]
245 tanks, 678 armored vehicles destroyed[27]

Per Ukraine:
12,300+ soldiers killed
157 tanks destroyed
258 armored vehicles
407 artillery systems and MLRs
27 air defense systems
10 planes/helicopters shot down
366 vehicles and fuel tanks[28]

Per Russia:
54 tanks destroyed or captured[29]
Per Ukraine:
1 civilian killed and 1 wounded[30]

In early June 2023, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine launched a substantial counteroffensive against Russian forces occupying its territory by breaching the frontlines.[31][32][33][34][35] These efforts were made in several directions, including the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, among others.[36][37][3] Ukraine has made incremental gains, focusing on the southern fronts, while fighting well-established Russian defenses and facing heavy resistance.

The counteroffensive is widely regarded as a crucial moment in the war, with the outcome potentially deciding whether Ukraine will continue to receive strong Western military support.[38] Despite high anticipation for its results, Ukrainian officials warn that the counteroffensive will take time and that casualties will be high.[39]

Background

Planning

Following the Kherson and Kharkiv counteroffensives in late 2022, fighting on the front lines largely stagnated, with fighting mostly concentrated around the city of Bakhmut during the first half of 2023.[40] By February 2023, Ukrainian and Western officials began discussing plans for a potential spring counteroffensive, while Ukrainian troops were receiving military training from NATO and anticipating Western equipment, primarily being M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks.[41] That May, Ukraine had begun wrapping up preparations for an anticipated counteroffensive and would not explicitly announce when the counteroffensive would begin.[42] Despite the general expectation that the counteroffensive would take place in spring, it did not, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy explaining that they had not received sufficient Western supplies and that Ukrainian military training from the West had not been completed yet. Furthermore, weather was a substantial factor delaying the counteroffensive; during that time period, Ukraine was undergoing its seasonal rasputitsa cycle, making travel difficult for vehicles such as tanks.[43]

Russian defenses

Russian fortifications in Ukraine had been described as the most "extensive defensive works in Europe since World War II" by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).[44] By April 2023, Russia built an 800-kilometer-long defensive line in preparation for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.[45] The final lines of fortifications established by Russia prior to the counteroffensive amounted to being nearly 2,000 kilometers (km) long, extending from Belarus to the Dnipro Delta. Half of the defenses are in Ukrainian oblasts, with four being made to correspond to each one. Defenses primarily consisted of ditches, dragon's teeth, trenches, artillery positions, anti-vehicle barriers, and prepared firing positions for vehicles.[46]

In the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russia constructed roughly three lines of defense: a 150-km-long frontline from Vasylivka to Novopetrykivka on the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border, a 130-km-long second line of defense from Orlyanske to just north of Bilmak, and "a constellation of disconnected fortifications surrounding larger towns". The 150-km line contained multiple counter-mobility barriers and infantry trenches backed by artillery positions located 30 km nearby. The second line is similar to the first, allowing Russia to set up a new front while also offering protection against flank attacks. The third line contains strategically positioned fortifications meant to serve as a contingency to preserve Russian positions in case of a Ukrainian victory.[47] In the Kherson Oblast, defenses were created in order to protect Crimea and the Dnipro River, while trenches in the road are located every few kilometers. The purpose was to prevent amphibious warfare.[48] In the Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces constructed field fortifications 5 km apart, combined with the urban terrain. Approximately 76% of the fortifications observed were estimated to be created pre-2022, with the quality of them being doubted due to relative unuse over time. These fortifications center around Olhynka, Donetsk, Makiivka, and Horlivka.[49] In the Luhansk Oblast, the system are geographically-based, consisting of a northern and southern system. The southern system was similar to Donetsk's, being focused around Bakhmut and Kreminna. North of Kreminna contains a defensive line connecting to the Russian border and splitting into a front and rear subsystem. Fortifications were also erected in towns along the Krasna River, while gaps were noted in fortification lines along Preobrazhenne.[50]

Prelude

See also: Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam

In the days before the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces engaged in "shaping operations" to test Russian defenses and weaken logistics and supply chains deep inside Russian-occupied territories.[36][51] According to Western media, Ukrainian forces had built up an estimated 50,000 to 60,000 soldiers for the counteroffensive, organized into twelve brigades.[22][23][52] Three of these were trained in Ukraine, and the other nine were trained and equipped by the United States.[52][23] On 3 June 2023, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine was ready to launch a counteroffensive.[53] The next day, Ukrainian officials declared an "operational silence" to avoid compromising military operations.[54]

On 6 June, the Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River was destroyed, flooding vast areas downstream and reducing water supplies to Crimea. As the counteroffensive began, Russian Armed Forces shelled Kherson, where rescuers were evacuating residents threatened by flooding.[55][56] The Ukrainian army had begun making plans to retake the Dnipro islands, as it had provided a good location to observe Russian military activities, and began staking out the location ahead of the counteroffensive. Tactical units had engaged in guerilla operations by providing coordinates to Russian armed depots, which was later destroyed and building bridgeheads. However, the destruction had significantly disrupted those plans, which impacted the overall counteroffensive.[57]

Southern front

Starting on 3 June, the Ukrainian 37th Marine Brigade engaged in a slow but consistent offensive action around the frontline settlement of Novodonetske in the Donetsk Oblast. Without armored support, the marines were able to push back the Vostok Battalion of the DNR's people's militia mostly through the use of artillery. The Ukrainian advance was further aided by the use of armoured personnel carriers (APC's) to rapidly transport marines to the front, and then withdrawing out of Russian artillery range.[58]

Bakhmut

Main article: Battle of Bakhmut

Beginning in May 2023, Ukrainian forces engaged in "localized" counterattacks on the flanks of Bakhmut, as part of the larger battle in the city.[59] On 12 May Ukrainian forces forced the Russians out of the southern bank of the Berkhivske Reservoir, about 4 kilometres (2.5 mi) northwest of Bakhmut,[59] and claimed further gains of 20 square kilometres (7.7 sq mi) in the north and southern suburbs of Bakhmut later in the month.[60][61] Another large-scale Ukrainian counterattack operation began in and around Bakhmut on 5 June, when it was reported that Ukrainian forces had retaken part of the village of Berkhivka, north of Bakhmut.[62] Ukrainian forces claimed to have advanced hundreds of meters in multiple areas around Bakhmut's flanks throughout early June.[63][64][65]

Start date

The exact launch date of the counteroffensive is debated, with conflicting information coming from various official sources. Russia claimed to have thwarted a "large-scale offensive" on 4 June,[1] and regarded that date as the start of Ukraine's counteroffensive.[66] On 5 June, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Defense, Hanna Maliar, said that Ukrainian troops were "carrying out offensive actions" in several directions; earlier on, she and other officials had posted a social media video which carried the message that Ukraine would not announce the beginning of the counteroffensive.[3] The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an independent think tank, reported that Ukraine had launched "wider counteroffensive operations" beginning 4 June.[2] Western media reported on 8 June that the counteroffensive had begun.[67][32] On June 15, Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine, stated the counteroffensive has yet to start.[68] This claim would be reiterated by Hanna Maliar on June 20.[69]

Counteroffensive

Eastern front

Further information: Eastern Ukraine campaign

On 8 June, Ukrainian forces advanced in the direction of Bakhmut, making gains of between 200 metres to 1.1 kilometres (0.68 mi),[70] with further limited gains on 9 June.[71] By 10 June, Ukrainian forces had advanced up to 1,400 metres in different unspecified areas of the Bakhmut front and were engaged in heavy fighting in Berkhivka and Yahidne.[7] Also on 9 June, Ukrainian forces advanced along the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets Canal west of Andriivka, and forced the 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade and a "Storm-Z" penal battalion to withdraw from their positions on the canal.[2]

On 11 June, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar announced that Ukrainian forces had advanced 250 metres along the Berkhivka Reservoir in the Bakhmut front on June 11.[72] On 12 June Ukrainian forces conducted further counter attacks near Klishchiivka, in the vicinity of Bakhmut,[19] and both Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed Ukrainian forces advanced in this area.[73] On 13 June, Ukrainian forces continued to advance on the southern and northern flanks of Bakhmut. Additionally, Russian forces conducted counterattacks in the vicinity of Bakhmut.[74] According to Deputy Defense Minister Maliar, Ukrainian troops advanced 250 metres near the Berkhiv reservoir in Bakhmut and 200 metres on the Toretsk front.[75] On 14 June, Ukrainian forces conducted further counterattacks in the Bakhmut area, with Hanna Maliar reporting Ukrainian advances. Russian forces were additionally reported to have staged offensive operations in the Bakhmut area.[76]

Also on 14 June, a large concentration of Russian troops from the 20th Army were awaiting a speech from Major General Sukhrab Akhmedov behind the front line in the Luhansk Oblast when the congregation was attacked by Ukrainian M142 HIMARS strikes. Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media state that 100 Russian troops died, and a further 100 were wounded.[76]

On 15 June, Ukrainian Deputy Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar gave an update on Telegram, claiming an advance of 200 to 500 metres near Bakhmut while facing "stiff resistance" from Russian forces.[77] Additionally, Ukrainian General Staff Spokesmen, Oleksandr Shtupun, stated that Ukrainian forces had advanced one kilometer in eastern Dontesk, as part of operations around Vuhledar. Near Bakhmut, Shtupun announced Ukraine had launched successful counterattacks for the settlements of Rozdolivka-Krasnopolivka and Berkhivka-Yahidne, while Russian sources stated Ukrainian forces made advancements near Klishchiivka. Operational Command East Spokesmen Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that on 14 and 15 June Ukrainian forces had retaken 16 square kilometres of ground around Bakhmut.[68]

On 16 June, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi wrote on Telegram about the fighting in Bakhmut: "We continue to conduct offensive actions in separate directions, occupying dominant heights, and strips of forest with the aim of forcing the enemy gradually out of the outskirts of Bakhmut. Realizing this, the enemy units put up desperate resistance." He described the situation as "tense" further claiming that Russia was sending its best divisions to Bakhmut. Artillery and aircraft have been brought in as well by Russia as "backup".[78]

On June 18, Vitaliy Barabash, the head of the Ukrainian administration of Avdiivka, reported that Ukrainian forces advanced more than a kilometer north of Avdiivka on the Donetsk City frontline over the past two weeks. Geolocated footage also supports that Ukraine made limited gains in Berestove and Rozdolivka near Kreminna against the Russian 24th Separate Guards Special Forces Brigade.[21]

On June 20, Ukrainian officials reported that there where three clashes within Bakhmut city limits and moderate gains toward Klishchiivka. Additionally, on June 20 it was reported that Russian penal battalions, namely Storm-Z units were preforming highly attritional attacks on Ukrainian positions on the Svatove–Kreminna line with two Russian Airborne Forces brigades, the 76th and 98th Guards Airborne Divisions, operating behind them, preventing them from either retreating or letting up their attacks.[69]

On 23 June, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar claimed Ukrainian forces stopped a Russian offensive towards Kupiansk and Lyman. In what was described as "very fierce battles".[79]

On 24 June, Valerii Shershen, spokesmen for the Tavriia front territorial defense forces announced that Ukrainian forces had liberated 0.51 square kilometres (130 acres) of territory near Krasnohorivka which had been occupied by Russia since 2014.[80][81]

Southern front

Further information: Southern Ukraine campaign

Russia reported Ukraine had started a major offensive on the morning of 4 June 2023, in five areas of the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk.[1] The Institute for the Study of War also reported that Ukraine had launched operations as part of "wide counteroffensive efforts".[2] The following day, Ukraine confirmed an offensive was "taking place in several directions".[3]

During 4 June, Ukraine made limited tactical gains in western Donetsk Oblast and eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, including northeast of Rivnopil.[82] The next day, Russian milbloggers reported accelerated Ukrainian offensive actions in eastern Ukraine, concentrated against the Novodonetske area, between Vuhledar (the site of an ongoing battle) and Velyka Novosilka in southern Donetsk Oblast.[83] Ukrainian forces made gains southwest of Velyka Novosilka and northwest of Storozheve.[84] Although Ukrainian officials remained largely silent on the matter, there was speculation that these offensive actions were the beginning of the long-awaited counteroffensive.[85] A Russian-appointed official in Zaporizhzhia Oblast said the Ukrainians aimed to break through Russian lines and reach the Azov Sea.[63] Between 6 and 7 June, Ukrainian forces conducted further counterattacks in eastern Zaporizhzhia and western Donetsk.[86][65]

On 8 June, Ukrainian forces launched counter attacks around the city of Orikhiv,[67][87] in the Polohy Raion of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where Russian forces had constructed the Mala Tokmachka-Polohy defensive line. The attacks focused around the front line villages of Robotyne and Verbove. Ukrainian forces broke through the first lines of defense, held by the 58th Combined Arms Army and the GRU, causing Russian forces to fall back to a second line of defense. The Russian forces would later stage a counterattack, retaking the original line.[2] The ISW noted that the Russian Southern Military District, in charge of the defense of this line, acted with an "uncharacteristic degree of coherency" in their defensive operations. Russian sources offered various explanations for the success of the initial defense, such as effective mining, air superiority, and the use of electronic warfare (EW) systems.[2] U.S. officials and the Russian Ministry of Defence reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered "significant losses" during the attacks. U.S. officials said the losses are not expected to affect the counteroffensive as a whole.[36]

Also on 8 June Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks on the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, with fighting reported in the direction of Velyka Novosilka.[2] By 9 June, Ukrainian forces had made marginal gains on the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in Blahodatne, which is in the vicinity of Velyka Novosilka,[2] and Russian forces had retreated from positions west of Storozheve.[7] On 10 June Russian sources said Ukraine had advanced near Neskuchne,[7] and on 11 June Russian sources announced a Russian withdrawal from Neskuchne,[88] the Ukrainians later confirming that the city was liberated.[89] Alongside Neskuchne, the settlement of Makarivka [uk] was also reported to have been liberated.[90] Ukrainian drone footage shows Russian forces have withdrawn from their positions near Storozheve. Ukraine is credited with capturing 95 square kilometres (37 sq mi) of territory around Velyka Novosilka after a week of fighting.[88]

On 9 June more fighting was reported in the vicinity of Orikhiv,[91] with Ukrainian forces advancing with a mixture of Leopard tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles.[92] Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Ukrainian forces on their "results" in the east of Ukraine.[93] Ukrainian forces were seen operating in the vicinity of Lobkove, and a Russian milblogger claimed Ukrainian forces made gains in Robotyne, both located in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, south of Orikhiv.[71]

By 10 June Ukrainian forces made further gains south and west of Lobkove, and west of Novopokrovka.[7] On 11 June, the ISW reported that the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army alongside the Tsar's Wolves milita, and the North Ossetian units "Storm Ossetia” and "Alania” were unable to hold onto Lobkove and withdrew, leaving the village in Ukrainian hands.[19]

On 11 June the 68th Jaeger Brigade, alongside several territorial defence battalions had liberated the village of Blahodatne marking the third settlement to be liberated by Ukrainian forces during the counteroffensive.[15][94][95] Later that same day, the neighboring village of Makarivka was also confirmed to have been liberated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a press release. In total, Ukrainian forces advanced between 300 and 1,500 meters.[96][97] As Russian forces withdrew from Makarivka, Major General Sergei Goryachev, chief of staff for the 35th Combined Arms Army, was killed in an “enemy missile attack”, according to a Russian milblogger.[98] The Ukrainian military claimed Russian forces destroyed a dam on the Mokri Yaly river to slow down their advance.[99]

The ISW assessed that between 10 and 11 June Ukrainian forces had liberated Makarivka, Neskuchne, Blahodatne, Storozheve, and Novodarivka in western Donetsk but reiterated that claims of a Ukrainian "breakthrough" are premature at this time. They also reported that this advance had been against largely forces of the 5th Combined Arms Army including the "Kaskad" Operational Combat Tactical Formation of the DNR People's Militias, the 127th Motorized Rifle Division, and the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade. The ISW also reported marginal Ukrainian gains in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on 11 June against the Russian 3rd Army Corps.[19]

By 12 June Reuters estimated that Ukrainian forces were 90 kilometres (55 miles) from the Sea of Azov.[12] On the same day, Ukrainian forces made further gains west of Novodonetske. Russian forces also reportedly conducted a counterattack in the Vremivka area, where Ukrainian forces had made gains the previous day.[73] Additionally in their 12 June report, the ISW assessed that fighting had shifted away from Orikhiv and reiterated claims of an advance along the Velyka Novosilka front. They also reported that Russian forces in Rivnopil are facing encirclement, but their exact situation is unclear.[73] Also on 12 June, Ramzan Kadyrov announced that his Kadyrovites had engaged Ukrainian forces in Makarivka.[73] Overnight, Ukrainian forces advanced up to one kilometer in the direction of Berdyansk, according to officials.[75]

On 13 June, Russia conducted counterattacks aiming to recapture Makarivka, while Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near Orikhiv.[74] As of 14 June, offensive actions have bogged down due to prolonged rain, according to a Russian blogger, reducing both sides to shelling each other with artillery.[100] A Polish military analyst likewise claimed that Ukraine had lost momentum, estimating that Ukraine may have lost 16 out of 109 Bradley fighting vehicles. However many were only disabled with crews most likely surviving.[101][102] Despite this, Ukrainian forces still conducted counterattacks near Makarivka and Orikhiv, and reportedly made additional gains.[76] On 15 June, some advances of three to five hundred meters were reportedly made in the Zaporizhzhia region.[77]

In the early hours of 16 June, various Russian bloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops were carrying out a landing on the left bank of the Dnieper near Nova Kakhovka,[103] with video reports confirming an alleged shooting battle by the Russian Armed Forces trying to prevent the landing.[104] There were also claims of gunfire being heard in the towns of Tavriisk and Sosny[clarification needed].[105] Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces had attempted to land near and capture Hola Prystan and Oleshky, despite the two settlements being fully submerged following the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam.[68]

On 18 June, a Russian installed official, Vladimir Rogov, confirmed that the Piatykhatky village has been secured by Ukrainian forces.[106] Russian sources have also claimed that Ukrainian forces have advanced in the Robotyne direction. The ISW confirmed that at least the western portion of Piatykhatky had been secured by Ukrainian forces on June 18.[21] Additionally, on June 18, the ISW reported that Russian forces had formed "barrier forces" operating behind Russian lines. These forces have been largely used to prevent members of the "Storm-Z" penal battalions from surrendering to Ukrainian lines by shooting them when they attempt to retreat or surrender. POW's from these Storm-Z units that have been able to reach Ukrainian lines have reported that Russian forces struggle to supply and staff their units.[21]

One soldier spoke of Russian airpower: "Russian helicopters, Russians jets fire at every area, every day". On casualties one soldier said "We have lost a large number of people." Russian artillery, specifically Grad rockets, have been effective. Another reported his son being hit directly by a kamikaze drone just before the counteroffensive began. Being summer the Ukrainian soldiers report high temperatures. One soldier isn't wearing body armor while another told the BBC he took his shirt off specifically due to the heat despite many "mosquitoes and horseflies". Ukrainian soldiers also mentioned minefields that they had to cross in order to make assaults. The BBC was told that most of the Ukrainian forces were being held in reserve for a "big enough opening in Russian defences to launch a main attack".[107]

On 23 June, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar described Ukrainian advances as "gradual". She acknowledged that the offensive was being slowed by Russian minefields.[79] Later on 23 June, exploiting the chaos during the Wagner Group rebellion, Ukrainian forces were reported making marginal gains near Velyka Novosilka, as well as advancing within 1.5 km of Robotyne. Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces broke through the Novodanylivka-Robotyne line and the Mala Tokmachka-Novofedorivka line, and that Russian reserve forces have been mustered from the rear in an effort to stop these advances.[108]

On June 24, Maliar reported that Ukranian forces had liberated the village of Rivnopil [uk] in the southern Donetsk Oblast.[109]

According to pro-Russian Telegram channels, on June 26, Ukrainian forces crossed the Dnipro River and captured the village of Dachi in an attempt to establish a bridgehead.[110]

Casualties

On 14 June, Western officials said that Ukraine was taking significant casualties in their approach to main Russian defense lines, noting that such losses were not unexpected for attacking forces.[111] On 5 June, south of Velyka Novosilka, one Ukrainian unit composed of less than 50 soldiers suffered 30 killed, wounded and captured.[112]

On 16 June, Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi wrote on Telegram: "The enemy's losses in killed and wounded amounted to more than four companies."[78]

On 18 June, the UK MoD wrote that both Russian and Ukrainian forces are suffering "high casualties" in the south area of fighting, further stating that Russian casualties were the highest since the peak of the worst fighting in Bakhmut in March 2023.[113]

Analysis

On 9 June, the ISW assessed that there was confusion within the Russian information space as to who was really in charge of the defensive operations. There was speculation that Alexander Romanchuk, Mikhail Teplinsky, Sergey Kuzovlev, or Valery Gerasimov, could all be the district commander, with the ISW assessing that there are "likely overlapping" commanders. The ISW also assessed that Ukraine had not committed its full reserves and western equipment to the counteroffensive as of 9 June, and that material losses sustained up to that point would not necessarily impact the course of the counteroffensive.[71]

Timeframe

Western officials have warned about the expected high difficulty and length of the counteroffensive for Ukraine.[111][114] Anonymous Western officials speaking to The Guardian in June 2023 suggested there is likely to be "grinding costly warfare likely for many months to come" as "they [Ukraine] are going against a well-prepared line that the Russians have had months to prepare."[111] The same month, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley warned that they expect the fight to be long and come "at a high cost."[114] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy conceded by June 21 that the counteroffensive was progressing "slower than desired" while also affirming that he will "advance on the battlefield the way we deem best" and would not agree to a frozen conflict.[115]

CNBC opined that the beginning of the counteroffensive was deemed as "underwhelming" by some, but noted that Ukrainian actions up until 15 June had been probing attacks, and not the main phase of the counteroffensive; military operations were performed to assess Russian defenses, as they had been preparing for the counteroffensive months prior, identify the weakest points, and secure adequate bridgeheads for the main Ukrainian force.[116] Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine expressed a similar description on 15 June, announcing that the counteroffensive had not yet begun, and that all fighting up until that time was preliminary probing actions and that the main Ukrainian push has yet to come.[68] Despite criticisms of the relatively slow speed of the counteroffensive, Peter Dickinson of the Atlantic Council agree that the pacing was deliberate, and compared it to a marathon meant to exhaust Russia rather than a blitzkrieg, with the 2022 Kherson counteroffensive potentially serving as a template for the current counteroffensive.[117] Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine's Minister of Defense, also rejected comparisons of the counteroffensive to a blitzkrieg and stated that operations hitherto are "some kind of preparatory operation". Additionally, Ukraine also selectively puts soldiers in battles in order to save their lives, while Reznikov described the Russian approach as using their troops as "meat grinder".[118] Konrad Muzyka, a Poland-based military analyst, said that as of 15 June, only 3 of the 12 Ukrainian brigades prepared for the counteroffensive had been seen in combat in the southeast.[101]

Significance and goals

Regions of Ukraine annexed by Russia, with a red line marking the area of actual control by Russia on 30 September 2022

The Ukrainian counteroffensive drew comparisons to D-Day, with the operation seen as a pivotal moment in the war that would influence the final outcome.[119][120] Successes in the counteroffensive would unequivocally demonstrate that Western military aid to Ukraine was justified and that a comprehensive Ukrainian victory was possible, which would encourage further Western military aid. However, opinions on what a success would constitute of vary among Western leaders. Ultimately, American and European officials allowed Zelenskyy to determine what he viewed as a "success." Two essential components of success would include the Ukrainian army retaking Russian-occupied territories and/or undermining the Russian military.[121] Depending on the specific goals of the offensive, victory could weaken Russia's strategic position in the war while also ensuring that Ukraine receives long-term security guarantees from the West.[122]

Analysts have seen breaking the Russian land bridge to Crimea in the Zaporizhzhia region as a central goal of Ukraine's counterattack.[35] A major Ukrainian breakthrough in the region could "severely" threaten the viability of the land bridge, serving as the main supply route for Russian military strongholds in Crimea.[123] Alternatively, recapturing the Zaphorizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant would be seen as a symbolic victory while also re-providing Ukraine with critical infrastructure assets.[121] According to the UK MoD Russian forces are reinforcing Crimea: "This includes an extensive zone of defences of 9 km in length, 3.5 km north of the town Armyansk, on the narrow bridge of land connecting Crimea to the Kherson region."[124]

Equipment discrepancies

In the absence of good air defense or a modern Air Force, Ukrainian forces are launching an attack against a peer adversary, or near peer adversary, without air support – something that has not been tried by a NATO country since 1949. While Ukraine has been promised modern aircraft, none will arrive in time for this counteroffensive.[125] The forces that Ukraine are relying on for this counteroffensive are well trained but not combat experienced.[126] In one of its daily updates, UK MoD intelligence noted an increase of sorties by Russian aviation since the counteroffensive began. Given the lack of air defence Ukraine's allies have had to increase the amount of aid for air defence systems. The UK Joint Expeditionary Force has promised Ukraine $166.2 million in air defence weapons both for civilian and "front-line" use.[127]

Western supplied equipment including night vision may be giving Ukrainian forces "tactical advantages" during night fighting, according to Russian sources cited by the ISW, who say this would make it easier for Ukraine to conduct nighttime attacks.[128]

The Ukrainian counteroffensive lacks short range, or SHORAD, air protection for its forces, making its armour vulnerable to attack helicopters, drones equipped with improvised explosive devices or loitering munitions. This may also explain the ongoing attacks against Ukrainian civilian targets to tie down such systems, although Ukrainian forces use decoys and other methods to weaken such attacks.[129][130]

On 17 June, the UK MoD wrote on Twitter: "In the constant contest between aviation measures and counter-measures, it is likely that Russia has gained a temporary advantage in southern Ukraine, especially with attack helicopters employing longer-range missiles against ground targets," while noting that imagery showed more than 20 Russian attack helicopters had been deployed to Berdyansk Airport.[131]

On 18 June, the UK MoD wrote on Twitter that Russian forces were "often conduct(ing) relatively effective defensive operations" during the counteroffensive, with Ukrainian forces making "small advances" in "all directions".[113]

Reactions

  • Russia Russia
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that in response to the counteroffensive, he could order Russian troops to "create on Ukrainian territory a kind of sanitary zone at such a distance from which it would be impossible to get our [annexed] territory."[132] Both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected the peace plan of the African delegation that visited Russia and Ukraine in June 2023.[133] President Putin said on 21 June that: "Oddly enough, at the moment we are seeing a certain lull…This is due to the fact that the enemy is suffering serious losses, both in personnel and equipment."[134]
    • Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoigu, stated on June 20, that the counteroffensive began on June 4, and since then Ukraine had launched 263 attacks on Russian positions, all of which have been unsuccessful, and that Russian forces had lost no territory or settlements. The statement, which is directly contradictory to publicly available information, has been assessed by the ISW as "even-keeled" and an adaption to Russian command strategy following the chaos in the Russian information space during the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives of 2022.[69]
  • Ukraine Ukraine
    • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the BBC on 21 June that the offensive was "slower than desired," that "Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It's not," and that "[Ukraine] will advance on the battlefield the way we deem best".[135]
    • Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on 20 June that it "is incorrect to evaluate the effectiveness of military actions solely by kilometers or the number of liberated settlements."[136]
  • NATO NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called for more Western military aid for the Ukrainian army so it can continue the counteroffensive against Russia.[137]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The official start date of the counteroffensive has been heavily debated. While various other days have been proposed as the date the counteroffensive began, 4 June is the most commonly cited.

References

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Bibliography

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