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2022 Arizona gubernatorial election

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2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout62.6% Decrease2.29pp[1]
 
Nominee Katie Hobbs Kari Lake
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,287,891 1,270,774
Percentage 50.32% 49.65%
Hobbs:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Lake:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election

Doug Ducey
Republican

Elected Governor

Katie Hobbs
Democratic

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The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election occurred on November 8, 2022, to elect the next governor of Arizona, concurrently with other federal and state elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey was term-limited and ineligible to run for a third consecutive term. Democratic Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs narrowly defeated Republican former television journalist Kari Lake.[2]

Primaries were held on August 2 for both parties, with Lake winning the Republican nomination and Hobbs winning the Democratic nomination, making this the first gubernatorial election in Arizona history in which both major party candidates for governor were women. Hobbs became the fifth female governor of Arizona, with Arizona setting a record for the most female governors in American history.[3][4] With the concurrent passage of Proposition 131, this was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona without a lieutenant governor on the ticket.[5]

Going into the election, most polling had Lake leading and analysts generally considered the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican. Nonetheless, Hobbs won with 50.32% of the vote, becoming the first Democrat elected governor of Arizona since Janet Napolitano in 2006. This was the first gubernatorial election in the state since 2002 in which the margin of victory was less than 10 percent. Lake refused to concede and filed a post-election lawsuit in an attempt to overturn the results. Most of her lawsuit was rejected by all three levels of Arizona's state courts, with the remaining part dismissed at trial in May 2023.[10]

This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. With a margin of 0.67%, it was the closest election in the state since the 1990–91 gubernatorial election and of the 2022 gubernatorial election cycle. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Hobbs won independent voters by 7 percentage points, which contributed to Lake's defeat.[11][12]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Former Arizona Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson finished second in the primary.

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Kari Lake

U.S. Executive Branch officials
State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Karrin Taylor Robson

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. representatives

Governors

State officials

Individuals

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kari
Lake 		Karrin
Taylor Robson 		Undecided
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[39] July 27 – August 1, 2022 August 2, 2022 47.8% 38.5% 13.7% Lake +9.3

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Steve
Gaynor 		Kari
Lake 		Karrin
Taylor Robson 		Matt
Salmon 		Kimberly
Yee 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[40] July 30 – August 1, 2022 1,064 (LV) ± 2.9% – 49% 38% 3% – 4%[c] 6%
Emerson College[41] July 28–30, 2022 600 (LV) ± 3.9% – 46% 47% – – 3%[d] 4%
Rasmussen Reports[42] July 27–28, 2022 710 (LV) ± 4.0% – 43% 34% – – 12%[e] 11%
OH Predictive Insights[43] July 27, 2022 502 (LV) ± 4.4% – 51% 33% 2% – 2%[f] 12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[44] July 25–27, 2022 1,071 (LV) ± 2.9% – 48% 39% 2% – 4%[g] 7%
Alloy Analytics (R)[45] July 24–26, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 45% 35% 2% – 2%[f] 15%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[46][A] July 22–24, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% – 43% 43% – – – 14%
Data Orbital (R)[47] July 18–20, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% – 44% 32% 5% – 4%[c] 15%
Cygnal (R)[48] July 12–13, 2022 419 (LV) ± 4.8% – 45% 34% 3% – 4%[c] 14%
Data Orbital (R)[47] July 5–7, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% – 39% 35% 2% – 6%[h] 19%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[49] July 2–7, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% – 39% 35% – – 4% 21%
OH Predictive Insights[50] June 30 – July 2, 2022 515 (LV) ± 4.3% – 39% 31% 6% – 3%[f] 21%
– 40% 35% – – 5%[h] 21%
June 28, 2022 Salmon withdraws from the race and endorses Robson
Data Orbital (R)[47] June 24–26, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% – 33% 24% 7% – 4%[c] 33%
Moore Information Group (R)[51][B] June 22–23, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% – 37% 38% – – 11% 14%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[52] June 14–16, 2022 1,068 (LV) ± 2.9% – 39% 27% 15% – 3%[d] 17%
Data Orbital (R)[53] June 1–3, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% – 27% 23% 12% – 4%[i] 31%
OH Predictive Insights[54] May 9–16, 2022 281 (LV) ± 5.9% – 23% 21% 14% – 4% 38%
Cygnal (R)[55][C] April 28–30, 2022 – (LV) – – 47% 22% 7% – 5%[j] 19%
April 28, 2022 Gaynor withdraws from the race
The Trafalgar Group (R)[56] April 25–28, 2022 1,064 (LV) ± 3.0% 6% 38% 27% 11% – 4%[c] 14%
OH Predictive Insights[57] April 4–5, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 29% 22% 11% – – 36%
Data Orbital (R)[58] April 1–3, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 7% 35% 22% 12% – – 24%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[59] March 26–27, 2022 264 (LV) ± 6.0% 3% 30% 10% 5% – 6% 46%
Alloy Analytics (R)[60] March 9–12, 2022 433 (LV) ± 4.7% 4% 37% 15% 9% – – 34%
Data Orbital (R)[61] March 2022 – (LV) – 4% 43% 13% 15% – – 26%
Data Orbital (R)[62] February 11–13, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 8% 37% 9% 13% – – 34%
January 15, 2022 Yee withdraws from the race
OH Predictive Insights[63] January 11–13, 2022 302 (RV) ± 5.6% 5% 21% 6% 17% 5% 1%[k] 46%
OH Predictive Insights[64] November 1–8, 2021 252 (RV) ± 6.2% 2% 28% 1% 11% 6% 1%[k] 51%
OH Predictive Insights[65] September 7–12, 2021 311 (RV) ± 5.6% 5% 25% 1% 9% 6% 2%[l] 53%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[66] May 3–5, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% – 10% 0% 8% 4% 9%[m] 66%
Hypothetical polling

Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Matt Salmon

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Karrin
Taylor Robson 		Matt
Salmon 		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[67][D] May 12–13, 2021 534 (LV) ± 4.4% 10% 42% 48%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Lake
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kari Lake 398,860 47.97%
Republican Karrin Taylor Robson 358,662 43.13%
Republican Matt Salmon (withdrawn) 30,704 3.69%
Republican Scott Neely 25,876 3.11%
Republican Paola Tulliani-Zen 17,281 2.08%
Write-in 105 0.01%
Total votes 831,508 100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]
Former CBP chief of staffMarco López Jr.
Former CBP chief of staff Marco López Jr. finished second in the primary.

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Katie Hobbs

State representatives

Marco López Jr.

State legislator

Organization

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Katie
Hobbs 		Aaron
Lieberman 		Marco
López Jr. 		Other Undecided
May 27, 2022 Lieberman suspends his campaign
OH Predictive Insights[82] May 9–16, 2022 261 (LV) ± 6.1% 43% 9% 8% – 40%
GQR Research (D)[83] May 9–15, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 10% 20% 2% 19%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[59] March 26–27, 2022 234 (LV) ± 6.4% 27% 1% 9% 3% 57%
OH Predictive Insights[63] January 11–13, 2022 274 (RV) ± 5.9% 46% 5% 9% – 39%
– 23% 27% – 50%
OH Predictive Insights[64] November 1–8, 2021 229 (RV) ± 6.5% 42% 6% 8% – 44%
OH Predictive Insights[65] September 7–12, 2021 283 (RV) ± 5.8% 40% 8% 10% – 42%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Hobbs
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Lopez
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Katie Hobbs 431,059 72.32%
Democratic Marco A. López Jr. 136,090 22.83%
Democratic Aaron Lieberman (withdrawn) 28,878 4.85%
Total votes 596,027 100.0%

Libertarian primary

[edit]
Barry Hess, the sole Libertarian primary candidate

Candidates

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Results

[edit]

Write-in candidate Barry Hess was unopposed in the Libertarian primary, but failed to secure the minimum number of votes to receive the nomination.

Libertarian primary results[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Barry Hess (write-in) 550 100.0%
Total votes 550 100.0%

Certified write-in candidates

[edit]
William Pounds, write-in candidate for the Independent Green Party
  • Anthony Camboni (independent)[85]
  • Steph Denny (Republican)[85]
  • Mikki Lutes-Burton (Libertarian)[85]
  • Shawn Merrill (independent)[85]
  • Alice Novoa (Republican)[85]
  • William Pounds IV (Independent-Green)[85]
  • Liana West (Green)[85]

General election

[edit]

Lake was criticized for her denial of Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. She had made her closeness to former president Donald Trump central to her campaign.[86][87] Hobbs refused to debate Lake, which became a highly discussed issue of the campaign, resulting in criticism from Republicans.[88] On October 16, 2022, Lake twice refused to say that she would accept the result if she did not win the election: "I'm going to win the election, and I will accept that result."[89]

According to Politico, the race was considered a toss-up.[90] Lake called both the primaries and current round of elections "incompetent" and stated that "honest elections are needed" and that "the system we have right now does not work".[91]

Virginia Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin campaigns for Kari Lake in Tucson

Debates and forums

[edit]

Katie Hobbs refused to debate Kari Lake, though one debate-like forum was held.[92]

2022 Arizona gubernatorial forums
No. Date Host Moderators Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee   W  Withdrawn
Kari Lake Katie Hobbs
1 September 7, 2022 Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry Danny Seiden [93] P P
2 October 23, 2022 Clean Elections Mike Broomhead [94] P A

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[95] Tossup March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[96] Tossup March 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[97] Lean R November 7, 2022
Politico[98] Tossup April 1, 2022
RCP[99] Tossup January 10, 2022
Fox News[100] Tossup October 25, 2022
538[101] Lean R October 26, 2022
Elections Daily[102] Lean R November 7, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
Kari Lake (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Katie Hobbs (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Local officials

State legislators

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Declined to endorse

State officials

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of December 31st, 2022
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Katie Hobbs (D) $14,796,583 $14,703,952 $527,969
Kari Lake (R) $15,855,394 $15,381,454 $1,592,293
Source: SeeTheMoney[159]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kari
Lake (R) 		Katie
Hobbs (D) 		Undecided[o] Margin
RealClearPolitics[160] November 1–7, 2022 November 8, 2022 50.8% 47.3% 1.9% Lake +3.5
FiveThirtyEight[161] October 17 – November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 49.5% 47.1% 3.4% Lake +2.4
270ToWin[162] November 3–7, 2022 November 8, 2022 48.9% 46.9% 4.2% Lake +2.0
Average 49.7% 47.1% 3.2% Lake +2.6

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kari
Lake (R) 		Katie
Hobbs (D) 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[163] November 5–7, 2022 1,094 (LV) ± 2.9% 51% 47% – 3%
Data Orbital (R)[164] November 4–6, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 50% 47% 2%[p] 2%
Research Co.[165] November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 47% – 4%
Data for Progress (D)[166] November 2–6, 2022 1,359 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –
Targoz Market Research[167] November 2–6, 2022 560 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 48% 2%[q] –
KAConsulting (R)[168][E] November 2–3, 2022 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% 1% 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[169] November 2, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 51% 48% – 1%
HighGround Inc.[170] November 1–2, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 45% 2%[r] 6%
Remington Research Group (R)[171] November 1–2, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 46% – 5%
Big Data Poll (R)[172] October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,051 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 47% – 2%
Marist College[173] October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,157 (RV) ± 4.1% 47% 48% 1%[s] 4%
1,015 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 49% 1%[t] 2%
Civiqs[174] October 29 – November 2, 2022 852 (LV) ± 4.2% 50% 48% 1%[u] –
Alloy Analytics (R)[175] October 30 – November 1, 2022 639 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 46% – 4%
Emerson College[176] October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 2%[v] 2%
50% 47% 3%[w] –
The Phillips Academy[177] October 29–30, 2022 985 (LV) ± 3.1% 53% 42% – 4%
Fox News[178] October 26–30, 2022 1,003 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 46% 3%[x] 4%
Wick Insights (R)[179] October 26–30, 2022 1,122 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 47% 2%[y] 2%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[180][D] October 24–26, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 47% – –
OH Predictive Insights[181] October 24–26, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 47% – 4%
Siena College/NYT[182] October 24–26, 2022 604 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 48% – 4%
BSP Research/Shaw & Co.[183][F] October 19–26, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 42% 40% 3%[z] 14%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[169] October 24–25, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 54% 43% – 2%
co/efficient (R)[184] October 20–21, 2022 1,111 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 45% – 6%
Data Orbital (R)[185] October 17–19, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 44% 3%[aa] 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[186][G] October 14–18, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 48% 2%[ab] 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[187][H] October 16–17, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 46% – 4%
Data for Progress (D)[188] October 11–17, 2022 893 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 46% – 4%
Wick Insights (R)[189] October 8–14, 2022 1,058 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 47% 2%[ac] 3%
HighGround Inc.[190][I] October 12–13, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 46% 2%[ad] 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[191] October 11, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 46% – 4%
Ascend Action (R)[192] October 8–10, 2022 954 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 45% 5%[ae] 5%
Big Data Poll (R)[193] October 2–5, 2022 974 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 46% 1%[af] 6%
YouGov/CBS News[194] September 30 – October 4, 2022 1,164 (RV) ± 3.8% 49% 49% – 1%
CNN/SSRS[195] September 26 – October 2, 2022 900 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 49% 7%[ag] –
795 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 49% 5%[ah] –
Fox News[196] September 22–26, 2022 1,008 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 44% 6%[ai] 7%
Suffolk University[197] September 21–25, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 46% – 8%
Marist College[198] September 19–22, 2022 1,260 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 45% <1% 8%
1,076 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 46% – 5%
Data for Progress (D)[199] September 15–19, 2022 768 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 47% – 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[200] September 14–17, 2022 1,080 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 46% – 4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[201] September 8–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 49% – 3%
Survey Monkey (D)[202][J] September 6–9, 2022 972 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 49% – 14%
563 (LV) ± 3.0% 39% 53% – 8%
Emerson College[203] September 6–7, 2022 627 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 46% 2%[aj] 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[204] September 6–7, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 44% – 13%
Echelon Insights[205] August 31 – September 7, 2022 773 (RV) ± 4.5% 40% 50% – 10%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[206] August 24–27, 2022 1,074 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 46% 3%[ak] 5%
RMG Research[207] August 16–22, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 44% – 9%
Fox News[208] August 12–16, 2022 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 2% 6%
American Viewpoint (R)[209][K] August 2022 – (LV) – 46% 47% 3% 4%
Beacon Research (D)[210][L] July 5–20, 2022 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 43% 2% 12%
504 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 49% 3% 7%
TargetSmart (D)[211][M] June 28–30, 2022 704 (LV) ± 3.7% 38% 47% 7% 8%
GQR Research (D)[212][N] May 9–15, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 50% – 4%
Data Orbital (R)[213] February 11–13, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 41% – 16%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[214] November 10, 2021 624 (RV) ± 3.9% 34% 39% 2% 19%
592 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 41% 2% 18%
Hypothetical polling

Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Katie Hobbs

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Karrin
Taylor Robson (R) 		Katie
Hobbs (D) 		Other Undecided
Beacon Research (D)[210][L] July 5–20, 2022 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 37% 42% 4% 13%
504 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 48% 5% 7%
TargetSmart (D)[215][M] June 28–30, 2022 704 (LV) ± 3.7% 39% 44% 10% 7%
GQR Research (D)[216][N] May 9–15, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 47% – 4%
Data Orbital (R)[213] February 11–13, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 37% 42% – 21%

Matt Salmon vs. Katie Hobbs

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Matt
Salmon (R) 		Katie
Hobbs (D) 		Other Undecided
Data Orbital (R)[213] February 11–13, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 39% 41% – 20%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[214] November 10, 2021 624 (RV) ± 3.9% 31% 40% 4% 17%
592 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 43% 4% 16%

Steve Gaynor vs. Katie Hobbs

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Steve
Gaynor (R) 		Katie
Hobbs (D) 		Undecided
Data Orbital (R)[213] February 11–13, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 39% 41% 20%

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[217] March 7–15, 2022 753 (RV) ± 3.6% 39% 37% 25%
OH Predictive Insights[63] January 11–13, 2022 855 (RV) ± 3.4% 39% 35% 26%
OH Predictive Insights[64] November 1–8, 2021 713 (RV) ± 3.7% 39% 37% 24%
OH Predictive Insights[65] September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 39% 36% 25%
Data for Progress (D)[218][O] September 15–22, 2020 481 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 39% 19%

Results

[edit]

Hobbs defeated Lake by a margin of 0.67%, narrowly outperforming Joe Biden's 0.3% margin of victory in 2020 in Arizona. Hobbs won by more than 37,000 votes in Maricopa County, home to a majority of Arizona's population, which was larger than her statewide margin of 17,117 votes.

2022 Arizona gubernatorial election[219]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Katie Hobbs 1,287,891 50.32% +8.48%
Republican Kari Lake 1,270,774 49.65% −6.35%
Write-in 820 0.03% +0.01%
Total votes 2,559,485 100.0%
Turnout 2,592,313 62.56%
Registered electors 4,143,929
Democratic gain from Republican

By county

[edit]
By county
County Katie Hobbs
Democratic 		Kari Lake
Republican 		Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # %
Apache 17,739 66.65 8,870 33.33 5 0.02 8,869 33.32 26,614
Cochise 19,137 41.01 27,481 58.89 48 0.10 -8,344 -17.88 46,666
Coconino 34,389 62.84 20,298 37.09 40 0.07 14,091 25.75 54,727
Gila 7,674 34.18 14,763 65.76 13 0.06 -7,089 -31.58 22,450
Graham 3,087 28.46 7,760 71.54 0 0.00 -4,673 -43.08 10,847
Greenlee 920 37.61 1,526 62.39 0 0.00 -606 -24.78 2,446
La Paz 1,646 29.93 3,847 69.96 6 0.11 -2,201 -40.03 5,499
Maricopa 790,352 51.20 752,714 48.77 469 0.03 37,638 2.44 1,543,535
Mohave 20,369 24.99 61,125 74.99 16 0.02 -40,756 -50.00 81,510
Navajo 18,058 44.69 22,340 55.28 13 0.03 -4,282 -10.60 40,411
Pima 241,398 60.57 157,034 39.40 121 0.03 84,364 21.17 398,553
Pinal 60,019 41.73 83,773 58.25 34 0.02 -23,754 -16.52 143,826
Santa Cruz 8,724 66.60 4,371 33.37 4 0.03 4,353 33.23 13,099
Yavapai 44,316 35.97 78,832 63.99 43 0.03 -34,516 -28.02 123,191
Yuma 20,063 43.51 26,040 56.47 8 0.02 -5,977 -12.96 46,111
Totals 1,287,891 50.32 1,270,774 49.65 820 0.03 17,117 0.67 2,559,485

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Hobbs won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[220]

District Hobbs Lake Representative elected
1st 52% 48% David Schweikert
2nd 46% 54% Eli Crane
3rd 76% 24% Ruben Gallego
4th 56% 44% Greg Stanton
5th 43% 57% Andy Biggs
6th 52% 48% Juan Ciscomani
7th 67% 33% Raúl Grijalva
8th 45% 55% Debbie Lesko
9th 36% 64% Paul Gosar

Dispute over results

[edit]

On November 17, Lake refused to concede defeat, and announced she was assembling a legal team to challenge the results.[221][222] Lake alleged voter disfranchisement due to ballot printing problems and long waiting lines in Maricopa County, which had elections run by local Republican officials Bill Gates and Stephen Richer.[221][223] In 70 out of 223 Maricopa County polling sites, voting machine ballots were printed too lightly to be read by tabulators; the problem was caused by a printer setting which had not shown widespread issues during prior testing.[221][224] If voters did not want to wait in line for the issue to be fixed, they could leave to vote at another Maricopa County polling site, with wait times for polling sites being shown online, and many polling sites had little to no waiting lines, stated Maricopa County election officials.[221][222][225] Alternatively, voters could drop their ballots into a secure box ("Box 3"), with these ballots being later tabulated at Maricopa County's elections headquarters, under monitoring from observers from both parties; ultimately, around 17,000 Maricopa County ballots were dropped into Box 3.[221][222][226]

Bill Gates, the Republican chair of Maricopa's Board of Supervisors, partially blamed the long lines on Arizona Republican Party chairwoman Kelli Ward for discouraging voters from using Box 3; she had claimed that Box 3 should not be used as "Maricopa County is not turning on their tabulators downtown today".[221][227] Lake herself told her supporters to stay in line to vote, while a lawyer for Lake's campaign assuaged concerns about using Box 3 to vote.[227] Lake's campaign filed a lawsuit on Election Day to extend voting for another three hours, but Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Tim Ryan declined to do so, stating: "The court doesn't have any evidence that any voter was precluded from their right to vote".[228]

While Lake alleged that Republican-dominated areas in Maricopa County were disproportionately affected by the printing problems, The Washington Post found that the percentage of registered Republicans in affected precincts (37%) was very close to the percentage of registered Republicans across Maricopa County (35%), and also found that some Democrat-dominated areas also faced the printing problems.[224][229] According to the Associated Press: "Democrats voted overwhelmingly via ballots received in the mail. In-person Election Day votes heavily favored the GOP because Lake and other prominent Republicans had claimed it was more secure, which election experts dispute."[221] Meanwhile, The New York Times analyzed 45 of the claims of irregularities reported by voters, finding that in 34 of these 45 claims, the voters were able to cast their vote despite an inconvenience; while for the others, three raised problems with voter registration; seven gave unclear accounts as to what exactly happened; and only one said she had been denied the opportunity to vote, though she acknowledged she had arrived at her polling place at the time it closed.[227]

Arizona's Assistant Attorney General Jennifer Wright demanded that Maricopa County explain the election problems, stating: "These complaints go beyond pure speculation, but include first-hand witness accounts that raise concerns regarding Maricopa's lawful compliance with Arizona election law".[230]

Delays in certification of voting results

[edit]

14 of Arizona's 15 counties certified the voting results by the November 28, 2022 deadline; the exception was Cochise County.[231] Despite no evidence of irregularities with vote counting, Cochise County's Republican officials delayed their certification vote to December 2, 2022, to accommodate a hearing on the certification of voting machines.[232] On November 21, Arizona's State Elections Director, Kori Lorick, had sent county officials' confirmation that the county's voting machines had been certified by the United States Election Assistance Commission in an accredited laboratory.[233] However, the county's officials insisted on hearing more from those who had alleged that the voting machines were not properly certified.[234]

On November 29, Hobbs, as secretary of state, sued the county for being unable to certify results by the deadline.[235]

On December 1, the Pima County Superior Court ruled that the Cochise County Board of Supervisors must hold an emergency meeting on the same day to certify and approve the canvass.[236] Hours later, the Board voted 2–0 to do so.[237]

Lawsuit

[edit]

On December 9, 2022, after Arizona certified the election, Lake initiated a lawsuit seeking a court order to either overturn Hobbs' victory and declare Lake as the winner of the election, or redo the election in Maricopa County.[238][239] Lake's complaint alleged that there were hundreds of thousands of illegal votes in the election, but no evidence was provided.[240] On December 19, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson dismissed eight of ten counts of Lake's lawsuit, regarding invalid signatures on mail-in ballots, incorrect certification, inadequate remedy, as well as violations of freedom of speech, equal protection, due process, the secrecy clause, and constitutional rights.[241][242] The judge allowed the remaining two counts to go to trial, these being allegations that election officials intentionally interfered with Maricopa County ballot printers and with the chain of custody of Maricopa County ballots.[243] The judge ruled that Lake needed to prove during the trial that the above allegations were true, and that the alleged actions "did in fact result in a changed outcome" of the election.[244]

Lake's reaction to the judge's initial ruling was declaring: "Arizona, We will have our day in court!"[245] During the two-day trial, Northrop Grumman information security officer Clay Parikh, a witness called by Lake, testified that some ballots had printing errors that would cause tabulation issues, but also testified that these misprinted ballots would ultimately be counted after duplicates were made.[246][247] On December 24, judge Thompson dismissed Lake's remaining case, as the court did not find clear and convincing evidence that misconduct was committed.[247][248][249] The judge wrote: "Every single witness before the Court disclaimed any personal knowledge of such [intentional] misconduct. The Court cannot accept speculation or conjecture in place of clear and convincing evidence".[250][251] The judge further ruled that "printer failures did not actually affect the results of the election", while highlighting that one witness called by Lake testified that "printer failures were largely the result of unforeseen mechanical failure."[247][250] Regarding the witness Richard Baris, a pollster, who alleged that potential voters were disenfranchised, the judge noted Baris' testimony that "nobody can give a specific number" of people who were disenfranchised, and called Baris' analysis "decidedly insufficient" in this case, because Baris' analysis showed that Hobbs "had a good chance of winning anyway" even after reversing the supposed disenfranchisement.[252]

On December 30, 2022, Lake appealed the ruling to the First Division of the Arizona Court of Appeals.[253] Lake also attempted to transfer her appeal directly to the Arizona Supreme Court, which denied this on January 4, 2023, ruling that there was "no good cause" to do so.[254] On February 16, a three-judge panel for the Arizona Court of Appeals affirmed Thompson's ruling; chief judge Kent Cattani wrote the opinion and two other judges, Maria Elena Cruz and Peter Swann, concurred.[6][255] The appeals court found that "Lake’s only purported evidence" that long lines at voting centers "had any potential effect on election results was, quite simply, sheer speculation."[256] The appeals court noted that "Lake presented no evidence that voters whose ballots were unreadable by on-site tabulators were not able to vote", while highlighting that Lake's own cybersecurity expert testified to the contrary.[255] While Lake alleged that there was improper chain-of-custody documentation in Maricopa County, the appeals court decided that the lower court reasonably concluded that Lake failed to prove this allegation.[255] While Lake alleged that Maricopa County had improperly handled early ballots from election day, the appeals court ruled that even if this allegation was true, Lake "failed to present evidence, as opposed to speculation", that this affected the result of the election.[257] In summary, the appeals court wrote that the evidence presented in court showed that "voters were able to cast their ballots, that votes were counted correctly and that no other basis justifies setting aside the election results".[257]

Lake filed an appeal to the Arizona Supreme Court on March 1, 2023.[7] The Arizona Supreme Court issued a ruling on March 22, written by Arizona Supreme Court Chief Justice Robert Brutinel, finding that the Appeals Court correctly dismissed six of Lake's seven legal claims, as these challenges of hers were "insufficient to warrant the requested relief under Arizona or federal law."[8][258] For Lake's remaining legal claim, on signature verification, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that the lower courts incorrectly interpreted her challenge as pertaining to signature verification policies themselves, instead of the application of such policies; thus this issue was sent back for Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson to reconsider.[8]

The Arizona Supreme Court in May 2023 employed "the extraordinary remedy of a sanction" against Lake's lawyer, which was a $2,000 fine, for having "made false factual statements to the Court".[259][260] Within Lake's court filings was the claim that it was an "undisputed fact that 35,563 unaccounted for ballots were added to the total of ballots [at] a third party processing facility".[261] The Arizona Supreme Court responded that there is "no evidence that 35,563 ballots were" added, and further that Lake's claim had been disputed by Lake's legal opponents, so the claim of an "undisputed fact" is "unequivocally false".[259]

Later, in May 2023, Lake was granted a second trial by Judge Thompson, where Lake needed to prove that "Maricopa County’s higher level signature reviewers conducted no signature verification or curing", in violation of law, and that this changed the election result.[262] Thompson later acknowledged that the scope of Lake's claim of misconduct also extended to Maricopa County's lower level signature reviewers.[263] The result of the trial was that Lake's remaining claim on improper signature verification was dismissed; Judge Thompson ruled on May 22, 2023, that Lake had not provided "clear and convincing evidence or a preponderance of evidence" of misconduct in the election; instead the court received "ample evidence that — objectively speaking — a comparison between voter records and signatures was conducted in every instance [that Lake] asked the Court to evaluate."[9][264] Thompson noted that Lake's attorneys earlier argued that Maricopa County did not perform signature verification, but later argued that signature verification was performed, but done too quickly.[9] Thompson concluded that it was possible for signature verification to be done quickly and properly when "looking at signatures that, by and large, have consistent characteristics".[265] Meanwhile, Lake's own witnesses testified to performing signature verification for Maricopa County.[9] Thompson did not sanction Lake for her final claim, stating that while there was no clear or convincing evidence for this claim, it was not necessarily "groundless".[266]

Independent investigation into printer problems

[edit]

The results of an independent investigation into the 2022 election's printing problems was published in April 2023; the investigation was led by a retired chief justice of the Arizona Supreme Court, Ruth McGregor, who concluded that "the primary cause of the election day failures was equipment failure", and that no evidence gathered gave "clear indication that the problems should have been anticipated". McGregor also detailed: "Two-thirds of the general election vote centers reported no issues with misprinted ballots; approximately 94 percent of election day ballots were not faulty".[267][268]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b c d e Neely and Tulliani-Zen with 2%
  4. ^ a b Tulliani-Zen with 2%; Neely with 1%
  5. ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%; Tulliani-Zen with 4%; Neely with 3%
  6. ^ a b c Neely and Tulliani-Zen with 1%
  7. ^ Tulliani-Zen with 3%; Neely with 1%
  8. ^ a b Neely with 3%; Tulliani-Zen with 2%
  9. ^ Neely with 3%; Tulliani-Zen with <1%
  10. ^ Tulliani-Zen with 5%; Neely with 1%
  11. ^ a b Rivas with 1%
  12. ^ Rivas with 2%
  13. ^ McCarthy with 5%, "Other" with 4%
  14. ^ Nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014, and candidate in 2018; nominee for U.S. Senate in 2000, and write-in candidate in 2018 and 2020
  15. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  16. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  17. ^ Hess (L, disqualified) with 2%
  18. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  19. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  20. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  23. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  24. ^ "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  25. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  26. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  27. ^ "Refused" with 3%
  28. ^ Lutes-Burton (L/WI) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Refuse" with <1%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  30. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  31. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
  32. ^ "Other/Write-in" with 1%
  33. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
  34. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "Other" with 2%
  35. ^ "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 4%
  36. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  37. ^ Hess with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Taylor Robson's campaign
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Salmon's campaign
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Lake's campaign
  4. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action Fund
  5. ^ Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
  6. ^ Poll conducted for Univision.
  7. ^ Poll conducted for The Federalist, a conservative online magazine.
  8. ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
  9. ^ This poll was sponsored by Arizona's Family
  10. ^ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Lake
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by an undisclosed client retaining Summit Consulting Group
  12. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  13. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by the Arizona Research Consortium
  14. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Hobbs's campaign
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund

References

[edit]
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  110. ^ Gosar, Paul [@DrPaulGosar] (October 6, 2021). "1/3 I am proud to endorse Kari Lake to be our next Governor. Arizona is at a cross-roads and the state needs a governor who will work with the people, and for the people, and not just special interests. Kari is America First all day, 24-7. https://t.co/sk26VloGxY" (Tweet). Archived from the original on December 28, 2021. Retrieved January 24, 2022 – via Twitter.
  111. ^ Raychel (October 31, 2022). "GOP House Conference Chair Elise Stefanik's E-PAC Endorses Kari Lake for Governor of Arizona". Elevate PAC – Engage, Empower, Elevate. Retrieved September 8, 2023.
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  113. ^ "Gov. Doug Ducey endorses Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake". KTAR. August 6, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  114. ^ Isenstadt, Alex (September 19, 2022). "Youngkin to hold Arizona events supporting Lake". Politico. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  115. ^ Lake, Kari. "🚨 ENDORSEMENT ALERT: Senator Nancy Barto is one of the Greatest Conservative Champions in our state's history. Her endorsement means the world to me. I look forward to working with her to protect Arizona families! Thank you, Senator! 🇺🇸 From Senator Barto: "I have spent my career fighting to preserve the rights and freedoms of the families in our state. When I talk to Kari Lake, I see the same passion in her. Arizona needs a leader who will fight to protect the most vulnerable among us. I am proud to endorse her for Governor. Keep up the fight, Kari!"". Instagram. Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
  116. ^ Lake, Kari. "Verified Thank you Rep. @JosephChaplik for the endorsement! Arizona is so lucky to have America First fighters like you in #azleg. Your winning battles against mask mandates and to lower taxes for all Arizonans have made such a big difference. I'm proud to have your support!". Instagram. Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
  117. ^ Lake, Kari. "🚨 ENDORSEMENT🚨 Arizona State Representative John Fillmore I am honored to have the support of a true America-First, Constitutional Conservative like John. Let's continue the fight! #Karizona #AmericaFirst". Instagram. Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
  118. ^ Cejudo, Henry [@HenryCejudo] (September 16, 2022). "Let's make a difference Arizona! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/qkznyEnOcg" (Tweet). Retrieved December 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
  119. ^ "Jerry Colangelo discusses Kari Lake endorsement, says he doesn't know if Biden won 2020 election". October 13, 2022.
  120. ^ Kari Lake [@karilake] (April 8, 2022). "Verified It is always a pleasure to spend time with my friend Larry Elder. One of the greatest Conservative voices in history. I am honored to have his endorsement!". Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022 – via Instagram.
  121. ^ a b Abramsky, Sasha (August 5, 2022). "Kari Lake and Blake Masters Bring the Trump Train to Arizona". The Nation. Retrieved October 3, 2022.
  122. ^ Singman, Brooke (August 7, 2022). "DeSantis to hit campaign trail to rally support for Trump-endorsed candidates: "Unite and win"". Fox News. Retrieved August 8, 2022.
  123. ^ Lake, Kari [@KariLake] (October 21, 2022). ".@theRealKiyosaki: "I just couldn't stomach politics. But I'm here today to endorse a friend, and a candidate in @Karilake. Because we need leaders. And I've watched Kari Lake evolve from a journalist to a leader, and God-All-Mighty, ladies and gentlemen, we need leaders." https://t.co/Gc5NgEz9Do" (Tweet). Retrieved December 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
  124. ^ Joyce, Tom (August 5, 2022). "Karrin Taylor Robson concedes defeat in Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary". The Center Square. Retrieved August 8, 2022.
  125. ^ Lake, Kari. "🚨 ENDORSEMENT 🚨 @DonaldJTrumpJr: "Please elect this woman if you still believe in Freedom & Liberty in Arizona" Thank you, Don Jr! It's an honor to be in this fight to Save America with you". Instagram. Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
  126. ^ Kari Lake [@karilake] (May 20, 2022). "Verified I'm honored to have the support of the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police, Arizona's largest police association. Our officers put their lives on the line every single day for us. They have our backs, and they know I'll have theirs". Archived from the original on August 1, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022 – via Instagram.
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  155. ^ MoveOn [@MoveOn] (June 23, 2022). "#MoveOnEndorsed @katiehobbs has been hard at work protecting AZ's election process. The result: Record turnout in communities of color in the 2020 election. Katie Hobbs has shown up for our communities, and now it's time for us to show up for her: https://t.co/Akhmsk3tdh https://t.co/HqJtXGQNCf" (Tweet). Retrieved December 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  223. ^ Monroe, Rachel (November 12, 2022). "Counting through the conspiracies in Arizona's midterms". The New Yorker. Retrieved November 21, 2022. ...these technical issues were cropping up in Maricopa County, which has been the epicenter of election conspiracies for the past two years. The local officials running the election—Bill Gates, the chair of the county board of supervisors, and Stephen Richer, the county recorder—were already under enormous scrutiny.
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  237. ^ "Cochise County complies with judge's order and certifies election results". 12news.com. December 1, 2022. Retrieved December 1, 2022.
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  239. ^ "Complaint in Special Action and Verified Statement of Election Contest Pursuant to A.R.S. § 16–672" (pdf). Arizona Maricopa County Clerk of the Court. December 9, 2022.
  240. ^ Billeaud, Jacques (December 10, 2022). "Kari Lake challenges her defeat in Arizona governor's race". Associated Press. Retrieved December 10, 2022. The lawsuit filed late Friday by Lake ... also alleges hundreds of thousands of ballots were illegally cast, but there's no evidence that's true.
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[edit]

Official campaign websites

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