2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota: Difference between revisions
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Revision as of 08:48, 30 July 2018
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| Elections in North Dakota |
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The 2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota will take place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Dakota, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic-NPL Senator Heidi Heitkamp is running for reelection to a second term.[1] The candidate filing deadline was April 9, 2018 and the primary election was held on June 12, 2018.[2] Kevin Cramer easily won the primary, as did Heitkamp.
Background
Many observers cite Senator Heitkamp as a vulnerable incumbent Democrat in 2018, as she balances between cooperating with her co-partisans in the U.S. Senate and pleasing her constituents in deeply-Republican North Dakota; President Donald Trump won in North Dakota by about 36 points.[3] The race is expected to be extremely competitive and some have projected it will be the most expensive race in North Dakota history.[4]
Democratic-NPL primary
The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Heidi Heitkamp for re-election. Although general election ballot access is actually controlled by a Primary Election to be held June 12, challenger Dustin Peyer did not challenge Heitkamp in the primary.[5]
Candidates
Endorsed
- Heidi Heitkamp, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
Withdrew
- Dustin Peyer, firefighter and candidate for the State Senate in 2016[5]
Endorsements
Heidi Heitkamp
- United States Senators
- Doug Jones, U.S Senator (AL)[6]
- Al Franken, Former U.S. Senator (MN)[7]
- Kamala Harris, U.S Senator (CA)[8]
- Organizations
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic–NPL | Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent) | 36,533 | 99.59 | |
| Democratic–NPL | Write-Ins | 152 | 0.41 | |
| Total votes | 36,685 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Kevin Cramer, U.S. Representative[11]
- Thomas O'Neill, former Mayor of Niagara[12]
Withdrew
- Tom Campbell, State Senator[13][14] (endorsed Kevin Cramer)[15]
- Gary Emineth, businessman and former Chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party[16]
- Paul Schaffner[17]
Declined
- Rick Becker, State Representative and candidate for Governor in 2016[18]
- Rick Berg, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[19][20]
- Tammy Miller, businesswoman[21][20]
- Kathy Neset, member of the North Dakota State Board of Higher Education[22][20]
- Ed Schafer, former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former Governor of North Dakota[23]
- Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota State Treasurer[24][20]
- Wayne Stenehjem, North Dakota Attorney General and candidate for Governor in 2016[23]
Endorsements
Kevin Cramer
- Presidents of the United States
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[25][26]
- U.S. Vice Presidents
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[27]
- U.S. Senators
- John Hoeven, North Dakota[28]
- U.S. Governors
- Doug Burgum, North Dakota[29]
- N.D State Legislature
- Tom Campbell, State Senator[30]
- Organizations
- National Right to Life[31]
- North Dakota Right to Life[31]
- Republican Jewish Coalition[32]
Tom Campbell (withdrawn)
- State Senators
- Rich Wardner (Majority Leader)[33]
- Howard C. Anderson Jr.[34]
- Bill Bowman[34]
- Randy Burckhard[34]
- David Clemens[34]
- Dick Dever[34]
- David Hogue[34]
- Jerry Klein[34]
- Curt Kreun[34]
- Lonnie Laffen[34]
- Scott Meyer[34]
- Dave Oehlke[34]
- Arne Osland[34]
- Shawn Vedaa[34]
- Terry Wanzek[34]
- State Representatives
- Bert Anderson[34]
- Rich Becker[34]
- Jake Blum[34]
- Chuck Damschen[34]
- Jim Grueneich[34]
- Dennis Johnson[34]
- Mary Johnson[34]
- Terry Jones[34]
- Keith Kempenich[34]
- Dwight Kiefert[34]
- Gary Kreidt[34]
- Vernon R. Laning[34]
- Andrew Marschall[34]
- David Monson[34]
- Emily O'Brien[34]
- Bill Oliver[34]
- Bernie Satrom[34]
- Wayne Trottier[34]
- Greg Westlind[34]
- Denton Zuhke[34]
Polling
| Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kevin Cramer | 60,998 | 87.72 | |
| Republican | Thomas O'Neill | 8,449 | 12.15 | |
| Republican | Write-Ins | 94 | 0.14 | |
| Total votes | 69,541 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[35] | Tossup | April 9, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[36] | Tilt R | July 6, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] | Tossup | April 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[38] | Tossup | June 14, 2018 |
| Fox News[39] | Lean R | July 9, 2018 |
| CNN[40] | Toss-Up | July 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[41] | Toss-Up | June 15, 2018 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Heidi Heitkamp (D) |
Kevin Cramer (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 457 | ± 7.5% | 47% | 52% | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon | June 13–15, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Gravis Marketing | February 21–24, 2018 | 385 | ± 5.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC) | February 18–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic–NPL | Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent) | ||||
| Republican | Kevin Cramer | ||||
| Majority | |||||
| Turnout | |||||
References
- ^ a b Springer, Patrick (September 13, 2017). "U.S. Sen. Heitkamp announces run for re-election". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Forum Communications. Retrieved September 13, 2017.
- ^ "United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
- ^ "Can Heitkamp Win Again in Red North Dakota? Many analysts believe the race will be between Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) and Rep. Kevin Cramer (R). | RealClearPolitics". Retrieved 2017-07-20.
- ^ "2018 Senate race in N.D. could be the most expensive in state's history". KFYR-TV. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
- ^ a b Easter, Sam (March 17, 2018). "Sen. Heidi Heitkamp wins Dem-NPL endorsement". The Bismarck Tribune. Lee Enterprises. Forum News Service. Retrieved April 17, 2018.
- ^ Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Heitkamp.
- ^ Franken sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Heitkamp.
- ^ Harris sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Heitkamp.
- ^ Tiffany Muller (May 3, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Bob Casey, Heidi Heitkamp and Sheldon Whitehouse for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
- ^ a b "United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018".
- ^ Berger, Judson (February 15, 2018). "GOP Rep. Cramer to challenge Dem Heitkamp for Senate seat, reversing course". Fox News.
- ^ "Air Force vet, anti-immigration candidate jumps into ND U.S..." INFORUM. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
- ^ Springer, Patrick (August 16, 2017). "North Dakota Republican announces he's running for Heitkamp's seat". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved August 16, 2017.
- ^ "Tom Campbell announces run for Congress". KX News. February 16, 2018. Retrieved February 16, 2018.
- ^ Tom Campbell. "That's why I am officially endorsing my friend Congressman Kevin Cramer in his Senate race against Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp". Twitter.
- ^ Evans, Bo (February 13, 2018). "Emineth withdraws from Senate race". KFYR-TV. Retrieved February 13, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Primary Election Contest/Candidate List". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
- ^ Hageman, John (January 3, 2018). "Rick Becker, Bismarck state legislator, rules out run for Congress". The Dickinson Press.
- ^ Morken, Mike (January 11, 2018). "Rick Berg "not running" for U.S. Senate". Valley News Live. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
- ^ a b c d Hageman, John (December 1, 2017). "List of potential ND GOP Senate candidates narrows as CEO declines to run". West Fargo Pioneer.
- ^ Port, Rob (September 7, 2017). "Border States Electric CEO Tammy Miller considering challenging Heitkamp for Senate seat". Say Anything.
- ^ Port, Rob (July 5, 2017). "NDGOP Recruiting SBHE President Kathy Neset for Possible Senate Run". Say Anything. Retrieved August 16, 2017.
- ^ a b Hageman, John (January 12, 2018). "Fedorchak doesn't rule out challenging Heitkamp for U.S. Senate seat". wdaz.com.
- ^ Robillard, Kevin (September 18, 2017). "News: @club4growth touting Treasurer Kelly Schmidt as candidate against Heitkamp in #NDSen. She's up 48-44 in poll:". Twitter.
- ^ https://www.facebook.com/votecramer/photos/a.292631821525.156839.251734676525/10155327100686526/?type=1&theater
- ^ Donald J. Trump. "Congratulations to @KevinCramer on his huge win in North Dakota. We need Kevin in the Senate, and I strongly endorse him. Heidi voted NO on our Tax Cuts, and always will vote no when we need her. Kevin is strong on Crime & Borders, big on Cutting Taxes!". Twitter.
- ^ "Vice President Pence to campaign for Cramer in Fargo". kfgo.com. March 27, 2018.
- ^ Robert Lauf. "Senator Hoeven joins in supporting @kevincramer for Senate #NDPol". Twitter.
- ^ Doug Burgum. "Excited to support @KevinCramer in his run for U.S. Senate. #NDpol #NDsen". Twitter.
- ^ Tom Campbell [@tomfornd] (February 16, 2018). "That's why I am officially endorsing my friend Congressman Kevin Cramer in his Senate race against Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ a b "Right to Life groups back Kevin Cramer for U.S. Senate over Heidi Heitkamp". NRL News Today. June 6, 2018.
- ^ "Republican Jewish Coalition launches first wave of midterm endorsements". NBCNews.com. July 23, 2018.
- ^ Tom Campbell. "BREAKING: Rich Wardner, North Dakota Senate Majority Leader, Endorses Tom Campbell for U.S. Senate! #NDPol #NDSen". Twitter.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah Port, Rob (August 22, 2017). "Self-Described "Outsider" Senate Candidate Touts 34 Endorsements From the Good Old Boys Club". Say Anything. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
- ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 16, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
- ^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
- ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics
- Official campaign websites