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Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

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Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The current parliament was elected on 14 October 2023. The next election is expected to take place in late 2026.

Party vote

The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), Green (GRN), ACT, New Zealand First (NZF), Te Pāti Māori (TPM), and Opportunities (TOP). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Date[a] Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM TOP Lead
4–8 Jul 2024 Taxpayers' Union-Curia 1,000 37.6 25.9 12.5 9.1 7.3 3.5 2.4 11.7
27 May – 23 Jun 2024 Roy Morgan 930 35 27.5 14.5 9 5.5 3.5 2.5 7.5
15–19 Jun 2024 1 News–Verian 1,002 38 29 13 7 6 3.3 1.5 9
4–6 Jun 2024 Taxpayers' Union-Curia 1,000 35.4 29.4 12.7 9.7 5.6 4.0 0.8 6
30 May 2024 The 2024 Budget is delivered.
22 Apr – 19 May 2024 Roy Morgan 925 33.5 30 14 9.5 5.5 3 3 3.5
1–10 May 2024 Talbot Mills 35 32 – – – – – 3
5–7 May 2024 Taxpayers' Union-Curia 1,000 37.3 30 10.2 9.4 5.5 3.1 1.4 7.3
30 Apr 2024 Labour–Talbot Mills 34 33 12 7 6 4 – 1
20–24 Apr 2024 1 News–Verian 1,000 36 30 14 7 4.2 3.7 1.2 6
25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 Roy Morgan 934 36.5 24.5 13 11 5.5 5.5 2 12
2–4 Apr 2024 Taxpayers' Union-Curia 1,000 37.1 25.7 14.6 7.2 6.3 4.6 1.6 11.4
26 Feb – 24 Mar 2024 Roy Morgan 931 38 23 13.5 11.5 6.5 3.5 2.5 15
1–10 Mar 2024 Talbot Mills 1,000+ 38 28 14 8 6 10
10 Mar 2024 Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[1]
3–5 Mar 2024 Taxpayers' Union-Curia 1,000 37.4 25.3 11.3 10 7.4 2.5 2.1 12.1
29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 Roy Morgan 935 35.5 21.5 15.5 12 7.5 4 2.5 14
21 Feb 2024 Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49.[2]
10–14 Feb 2024 1 News–Verian 1,002 38 28 12 8 6 3.7 1.9 10
1–10 Feb 2024 Talbot Mills 38 29 12 7 6.2 4.9 1.4 9
1–7 Feb 2024 Taxpayers' Union-Curia 1,000 39.6 27.9 9 13.7 5 2.3 – 11.7
30 Jan 2024 James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024.[3]
8–28 Jan 2024 Roy Morgan 947 38 22 15.5 7.5 6 4.5 4.5 16
8–10 Jan 2024 Curia 1,000 41 28.4 9.5 7.8 5.6 3.6 – 12.6
27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 Roy Morgan 947 36 22 15.5 9.5 6 5 4 14
3–5 Dec 2023 Curia – 36.5 28.8 10.8 6.2 8.1 5 – 7.7
3 Dec 2023 Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party.[4]
27 Nov 2023 Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.
30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 Roy Morgan 920 37.5 21 12.5 12.5 8 2.5 3.5 16.5
1–6 Nov 2023 Taxpayers' Union-Curia 1,000 37 28.3 13.8 8.1 6 3.4 2.9 8.7
14 Oct 2023 2023 election result N/A 38.08 26.92 11.61 8.64 6.09 3.08 2.22 11.16
Date[a] Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM TOP Lead

Preferred prime minister

Date[a] Polling organisation Sample size Luxon Hipkins Swarbrick Seymour Peters Lead
4–8 Jul 2024 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 34.5 18.7 10.9 5.6 5.6 15.8
15–19 Jun 2024 1 News–Verian 1,002 23 18 6 4 4 5
4–6 Jun 2024 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 25.4 20.2 8.6 5 3.8 5.2
1–10 May 2024 Talbot Mills 25 25 – – – Tie
20–24 Apr 2024 1 News–Verian 1,000 23 16 6 5 4 7
10 Mar 2024 Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[1]
1–10 Mar 2024 Talbot Mills 1,000+ 24 23 – – – 1
10–14 Feb 2024 1 News–Verian 1,002 25 15 4 4 6 10
1–10 Feb 2024 Talbot Mills 27 23 – – – 4
1–7 Feb 2024 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 29 19 6 10 6 10
8–10 Jan 2024 Curia 1,000 31 13 – – – 18
3–5 Dec 2023 Curia 30 22 – – – 8
1–6 Nov 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 33 18 6.3 4 5 15

Government approval rating

Date[a] Polling organisation Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Do not know Lead
4–8 Jul 2024 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 47.3 33.9 18.8 13.4
27 May – 23 Jun 2024 Roy Morgan 930 35.5 52.5 12 17
22 Apr – 19 May 2024 Roy Morgan 925 43 47 10 4
1–10 May 2024 Talbot Mills 38 52 10 14
5–7 May 2024 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 45.1 42.6 12.3 2.5
25 Mar–21 Apr 2024 Roy Morgan 934 34.5 49 16.5 14.5
26 Feb–24 Mar 2024 Roy Morgan 931 35 54 11 19
1–10 Mar 2024 Talbot Mills 1,000+ 40 48 12 8
3–5 Mar 2024 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 39.5 43.4 17 3.9
29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 Roy Morgan 935 41.5 43.5 15 2
1–10 Feb 2024 Talbot Mills 43 41 16 2
1–7 Feb 2024 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 39.7 35.2 25.1 4.5
8–28 Jan 2024 Roy Morgan 947 42 41 17 1
27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 Roy Morgan 947 38 45 17 7
30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 Roy Morgan 920 36.5 46 17.5 9.5
9–12 Nov 2023 Guardian Essential 1,193 29 48 23 19
1–6 Nov 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 29 49 22 20

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[5]

Source Seats in parliament[i] Likely
government
formation(s)
NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM Total
1 News–Verian[6]
5–9 Oct 2024 poll 		47 37 15 10 6 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[7]
3–7 Oct 2024 poll 		44 38 13 12 9 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan[8]
26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll 		47 29 17 13 9 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[9]
8–10 Sep 2024 poll 		48 33 14 11 8 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills[10]
1–10 Sep 2024 poll 		46 39 12 10 8 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[11]
29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll 		45 33 16 12 9 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
1 News–Verian[12]
10–14 Aug 2024 poll 		49 38 14 8 7 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[13]
24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll 		41 31 18 14 8 8 120 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[14]
4–8 Jul 2024 poll 		47 33 16 11 9 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Roy Morgan[15]
27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll 		44 35 18 11 7 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (62)
1 News–Verian[16]
15–19 Jun 2024 poll 		47 36 16 9 8 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[17]
4–6 Jun 2024 poll 		44 36 16 12 7 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[18]
22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll 		42 38 17 12 7 6** 122 Hung parliament
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[19]
5–7 May 2024 poll 		47 37 13 12 7 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Talbot Mills[20]
30 Apr 2024 poll 		42 41 15 9 8 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
1 News–Verian[21]
20–24 Apr 2024 poll 		48 40 18 9 0 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (64)
Roy Morgan[22]
25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll 		45 31 16 14 7 7 120 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[23]
2–4 Apr 2024 poll 		47 32 18 9 8 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[24]
29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll 		45 27 19 15 9 5 120 National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Talbot Mills[25]
1–10 Feb 2024 poll 		47 35 15 9 8 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[26]
1–7 Feb 2024 poll 		49 34 11 17 6 6*** 123 National–ACT (66)
Roy Morgan[27]
8–28 Jan 2024 poll 		49 28 20 10 7 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Roy Morgan[28]
Dec 2023 poll 		46 28 20 12 8 8** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Curia[29]
3–5 Dec 2023 poll 		46 36 14 8 10 6 120 National–NZ First–ACT (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[30]
1–6 Nov 2023 poll 		46 35 17 10 8 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
2023 election result[31]
14 Oct 2023 		48 34 15 11 8 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
* indicates an overhang seat
  1. ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

References

  1. ^ a b "Chlöe Swarbrick elected new Green Party co-leader". 1 News. 10 March 2024.
  2. ^ Watson, Melania (21 February 2024). "Green MP and advocate for Pasifika community Fa'anānā Efeso Collins has died". Newshub.
  3. ^ Quinlivan, Mark (30 January 2024). "James Shaw resigns as Green Party co-leader". Newshub.
  4. ^ Gill, Sinead (3 December 2023). "TOP leader Raf Manji resigns". The Post.
  5. ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  6. ^ Desmarais, Felix (14 October 2024). "Poll: Coalition remain in front, but Labour gain seats". 1 News.
  7. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  8. ^ "National support up in September as National-led Government increases lead to 14% points after RBNZ cut interest ratess". Roy Morgan. 8 October 2024.
  9. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: September 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  10. ^ Ensor, Jamie (19 September 2024). "New poll results show closer fight between Chris Hipkins, Christopher Luxon for preferred Prime Minister". NZ Herald.
  11. ^ "National support up in August as National-led Government increases lead to 10% points and RBNZ cut interest rates". Roy Morgan. 3 September 2024.
  12. ^ Desmarais, Felix (19 August 2024). "Poll: Voters warming to Luxon as PM, party votes hold firm". 1 News.
  13. ^ "National support lowest since the election but Labour support also down as support for minor parties increases in July". Roy Morgan. 6 August 2024.
  14. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: July 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  15. ^ "National support increases marginally in June as support for Labour slumps back below 30%". Roy Morgan. 2 July 2024.
  16. ^ Desmarais, Felix (25 June 2024). "Poll: Government coalition makes up lost ground as NZ First lifts". 1 News.
  17. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: June 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  18. ^ "Prime Minister Luxon's honeymoon is over as National support crashes to lowest since the NZ Election after sacking two ministers in late April". Roy Morgan. 28 May 2024.
  19. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll May 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  20. ^ Edwards, Bryce (1 May 2024). "Political Roundup: Discontent and gloom dominate NZ's political mood". NZ Herald.
  21. ^ Desmarais, Felix (29 April 2024). "Poll: Labour could return to power if election held today". 1 News.
  22. ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (53%) lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori (43%) – cut to 10% points in April". Roy Morgan. 30 April 2024.
  23. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: April 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  24. ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (55%) increase lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 41% – now at 14% points". Roy Morgan. 8 March 2024.
  25. ^ Coughlan, Thomas (16 February 2024). "National extends lead in latest Talbot-Mills poll, Chris Hipkins falls". New Zealand Herald.
  26. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: February 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  27. ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (51.5%) strengthen lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42%". Roy Morgan. 9 February 2024.
  28. ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First with majority support of 51.5% ahead of Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42.5%". Roy Morgan. 30 January 2024.
  29. ^ Coughlan, Thomas (12 December 2023). "Support for Christopher Luxon drops, NZ First overtakes Act in new poll". New Zealand Herald.
  30. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: November 2023". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 9 November 2023.
  31. ^ "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.
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