2012 Republican Party presidential primaries: Difference between revisions

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{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
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|[[File:Mitch Daniels.jpg|100px]]<br/>[[Governor of Indiana|Governor]] '''[[Mitch Daniels]]''' of [[Indiana]]
⚫
|'''March 22, 2011''': ''[[Publishers Weekly]]'' wrote, "Mitch Daniels, the incumbent two-term Republican Governor of Indiana who is considered a possible candidate to run for the Republican presidential nomination, has signed a book deal with Penguin’s Sentinel imprint." <ref>http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/industry-deals/article/46564-sentinel-signs-governor-mitch-daniels-to-deal.html Retrieved 3/22/2011</ref>

'''March 23, 2011''': ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]'' reported, "Mitch Daniels, the Republican governor of Indiana, could prove to be a viable challenger to President Obama in 2012."<ref>http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2011/03/23/on-the-ibm-indiana-lawsuit-will-mitch-daniels-be-deposed/ Retrieved 3/23/2011</ref>

|[[File:Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore.jpg|100px]]<br/>[[Businessman]] '''[[Donald Trump]]''' of [[New York]]
|[[File:Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore.jpg|100px]]<br/>[[Businessman]] '''[[Donald Trump]]''' of [[New York]]
|'''March 19, 2011''': The [[Associated Press]] reported that Trump "plans to decide by June whether to join the field of GOP contenders competing in 2012 to make the Democratic incumbent a one-term president. Trump insists he's serious."<ref>[http://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110319/donald-trump-considering-political-run-110319/20110319/?hub=MontrealHome President Trump? Billionaire considering 2012 run].</ref>
|'''March 19, 2011''': The [[Associated Press]] reported that Trump "plans to decide by June whether to join the field of GOP contenders competing in 2012 to make the Democratic incumbent a one-term president. Trump insists he's serious."<ref>[http://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110319/donald-trump-considering-political-run-110319/20110319/?hub=MontrealHome President Trump? Billionaire considering 2012 run].</ref>
Line 304: Line 309:
'''March 23, 2011''': ''[[USA Today]]'': "Trump has said he'll make a decision by June whether to run for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012."<ref>[http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2011/03/donald-trump-2012-presidential-race-iowa-/1 "Donald Trump set for first Iowa visit in June"]</ref>
'''March 23, 2011''': ''[[USA Today]]'': "Trump has said he'll make a decision by June whether to run for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012."<ref>[http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2011/03/donald-trump-2012-presidential-race-iowa-/1 "Donald Trump set for first Iowa visit in June"]</ref>


⚫
|[[File:Mitch Daniels.jpg|100px]]<br/>[[Governor of Indiana|Governor]] '''[[Mitch Daniels]]''' of [[Indiana]]
|'''March 22, 2011''': ''[[Real Clear Politics]]'' wrote, "Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels has had to endure scorn for suggesting that social conservatives table their concerns while government officials deal with the country's economic crisis, but the Hoosier keeps on turning up in the national debate as a serious contender for the way he's elevated his state economically due to his own governing successes." <ref>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/03/22/huntsmans_enviable_record_makes_him_competitive_109309.html Retrieved 3/22/2010</ref>

⚫
'''March 22, 2011''': ''[[Publishers Weekly]]'' wrote, "Mitch Daniels, the incumbent two-term Republican Governor of Indiana who is considered a possible candidate to run for the Republican presidential nomination, has signed a book deal with Penguin’s Sentinel imprint." <ref>http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/industry-deals/article/46564-sentinel-signs-governor-mitch-daniels-to-deal.html Retrieved 3/22/2011</ref>
|-
|-
|[[File:Huckabee-SF-CC-024.jpg|100px]]<br/>Former [[Governor of Arkansas|Governor]] of [[Arkansas]] '''[[Mike Huckabee]]''' of [[Florida]]<ref>{{cite news|url = http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20002521-503544.html?tag=contentMain;contentBody|publisher = [[CBS News]]|date = April 14, 2010|title = Mike Huckabee Registers to Vote in Florida|first = Tyler|last = Finn}}</ref>
|[[File:Huckabee-SF-CC-024.jpg|100px]]<br/>Former [[Governor of Arkansas|Governor]] of [[Arkansas]] '''[[Mike Huckabee]]''' of [[Florida]]<ref>{{cite news|url = http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20002521-503544.html?tag=contentMain;contentBody|publisher = [[CBS News]]|date = April 14, 2010|title = Mike Huckabee Registers to Vote in Florida|first = Tyler|last = Finn}}</ref>

Revision as of 18:08, 23 March 2011

Republican presidential primaries, 2012
← 2008
2016 →
Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic



The Republican presidential primaries for the United States presidential election of 2012 will be held in the 2012 calendar year and be used to determine the presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Calendar

Guidelines for primary and caucus dates

A temporary committee of the Republican National Committee (RNC), set up in 2010, recommended a new plan. Under this plan, the traditional states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina) would hold their events in February, states' elected delegates proportionally could hold their events in March, with winner-take-all states and any other remaining states holding their events from April onward.[1] The amendment was passed in August 2010 by the full RNC by a vote of 144–103.[2]

Straw polls

January 22, 2011, Derry, New Hampshire – New Hampshire Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 New Hampshire Straw Poll were as follows:[3]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Mitt Romney 35%
2 Ron Paul 11%
3 Tim Pawlenty 8%
4 Sarah Palin 7%
5 Michele Bachmann 5%
6 Jim DeMint 5%
7 Herman Cain 4%
8 Chris Christie 3%
9 Rick Santorum 3%
10 Mitch Daniels 3%
11 Newt Gingrich 3%
12 Mike Huckabee 3%
13 Mike Pence 3%
February 10–12, 2011, Washington, D.C. – CPAC Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 CPAC Straw Poll were as follows:[4]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Ron Paul 30%
2 Mitt Romney 23%
3 Gary E. Johnson 6%
4 Chris Christie 6%
5 Newt Gingrich 5%
6 Tim Pawlenty 4%
7 Michelle Bachmann 4%
8 Mitch Daniels 4%
9 Sarah Palin 3%
10 Herman Cain 2%
11 Mike Huckabee 2%
12 Rick Santorum 2%
13 John Thune 2%
14 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 1%
15 Haley Barbour 1%
February 27, 2011, Phoenix, Arizona – Tea Party Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 Tea Party Straw Poll were as follows:[5]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Herman Cain 22%
2 Tim Pawlenty 16%
3 Ron Paul 15%
4 Sarah Palin 10%
5 Mitt Romney 7%
6 Michelle Bachmann 6%
March 6, 2011, Seaside, Oregon – Dorchester Conference Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 Dorchester Conference Straw Poll were as follows:[6]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Mitch Daniels 30%
2 Mitt Romney 23%
3 Sarah Palin 18%
4 Mike Huckabee 10%
5 Newt Gingrich 6%
6 Ron Paul 5%
7 Tim Pawlenty 4%
8 Haley Barbour 2%
9 Donald Trump 2%
March 15, 2011, Washington, D.C. – National League of Cities Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 National League of Cities Straw Poll were as follows:[7]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Mitt Romney 53%
2 Mike Huckabee 9%
3 Mitch Daniels 6%
4 Newt Gingrich 6%
5 Haley Barbour 3%
6 Donald Trump 3%
7 Chris Christie 3%
8 Jon Huntsman 3%
9 Sarah Palin 3%
10 Paul Ryan 3%
11 Ted Turner 3%
12 Joe Wilson 3%
March 20, 2011, Sacramento, California – Republican Liberty Caucus of California Presidential Straw Poll

Republican Liberty Caucus straw poll at the 2011 California Republican convention [8]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage Votes
1 Ron Paul 17.8% 36
2 Mitt Romney 10.9% 22
3 Sarah Palin 7.9% 16
4 Newt Gingrich 6.9% 14
5 Michele Bachmann 6.4% 13
6 Rudy Giuliani 5.4% 11
6 Mike Huckabee 5.4% 11
6 Tim Pawlenty 5.4% 11
9 Mitch Daniels 5.0% 10
9 Undecided 5.0% 10

Finishing with less than ten votes were, in order, John Bolton, Gary Johnson, Herman Cain, Haley Barbour, Rick Santorum, John Huntsman, Jr., Donald Trump, Chris Christie, Jim DeMint, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Colin Powell, Allen West, Tom McClintock, Dana Perino, and None of the Above. [8]

August 13, 2011, Ames, Iowa – Ames Straw Poll
September 22, 2011, Orlando, Florida – Presidency 5 straw poll[9]
October 7–9, 2011, Washington, D.C. – Values Voter Straw Poll
November 5, 2011, Springfield, Illinois – Illinois Republican Straw Poll[10]

Debates

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential debates, 2012

The following debates have been scheduled so far:[11][12]

Primary and caucus dates

  • February 1 – March 5, 2012: Early states (Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, Nevada caucuses, South Carolina primary)[13]
    • February 6 – Confirmed date of the Iowa caucuses[14]
    • February 14 – Expected date of New Hampshire primary
    • February 18 – Confirmed date of the Nevada caucuses
  • March 6–31, 2012: Primaries (and other contests) that provide for proportional allocation of delegates to the candidates, and all nonbinding caucuses;
  • April 1, 2012 onward: All other contests.

Convention

The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled to take place the week of August 27, 2012[15] in Tampa, Florida,[16] the week prior to when the 2012 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place.[17]

Candidates

The following individuals have formally announced that they are running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 and/or have filed as a candidate for such with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Declared


Perennial candidate Jimmy McMillan from New York (Website) 		On December 23, 2010, McMillan announced on Revolution Radio that he will seek the Republican nomination for President. McMillan, a registered Democrat and founder of the non-qualified Rent Is Too Damn High Party, stated he wanted to avoid a Democratic primary and would switch to the Republican Party to run.[18][19][20]

Announced exploration of potential candidacy

The following people either have formed, or have indicated an intention to form, an exploratory committee to examine the prospects of a campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.


Business magnate and radio talk show host Herman Cain of Georgia

(campaign)
(website)

Cain announced in January of 2011 that he had formed an exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination[21][22]
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia

(campaign)
(website)

On March 3, 2011, filed papers with the I.R.S. designating Newt Exploratory 2012 as a new organization formed to explore a possible candidacy.[23][24]

Political consultant and gay rights activist Fred Karger of California (website) 		In August of 2010, Karger formed an exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.[25][26][27]
Former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota

(campaign)
(website)

Pawlenty announced the formation of an exploratory committee on March 21, 2011.[28]

Former Governor Buddy Roemer of Louisiana

(campaign) (website)

Announced the formation of an exploratory committee on March 3, 2011.[29][30]

Prospective candidates

Current

As the primaries are not scheduled to begin until early 2012, it is too early to definitively determine which prominent public figures will run. The following is a list of individuals who are being discussed – in two or more unique, reputable sources that are less than one month old – in regard to the 2012 primary. They are listed in order of the date of the most recent media citation.


Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana 		March 22, 2011: Publishers Weekly wrote, "Mitch Daniels, the incumbent two-term Republican Governor of Indiana who is considered a possible candidate to run for the Republican presidential nomination, has signed a book deal with Penguin’s Sentinel imprint." [31]

March 23, 2011: The Wall Street Journal reported, "Mitch Daniels, the Republican governor of Indiana, could prove to be a viable challenger to President Obama in 2012."[32]


Businessman Donald Trump of New York 		March 19, 2011: The Associated Press reported that Trump "plans to decide by June whether to join the field of GOP contenders competing in 2012 to make the Democratic incumbent a one-term president. Trump insists he's serious."[33]

March 23, 2011: USA Today: "Trump has said he'll make a decision by June whether to run for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012."[34]


Former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee of Florida[35] 		March 21, 2011: The Washington Post reported, "Considerable uncertainty surrounds the Republican race, considered to be as wide open as any in recent years. Among those still waiting to be heard from are former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008; former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin; Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels; and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota."[36]

March 22, 2011: WJHG, a Florida affiliate of NBC reported, "Former Arkansas governor and potential 2012 candidate, Mike Huckabee, was in Destin this morning promoting his latest book."[37]


United States Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, Jr. of Utah 		March 8, 2011: Politico reported "To listen to them tell it, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is a health care visionary and U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman is a loyal foot soldier of the administration. The political calculus behind that praise is straightforward: by wrapping their arms around some of the GOP’s most credible and deep-pocketed potential challengers, Democrats undermine the party’s attempt to win over its conservative base in the primary."[38]

March 22, 2011: Real Clear Politics wrote, "This example - and there would be many others - is why President Obama appointed Huntsman, a Republican, as ambassador to the strategically important nation of China. And it is why many Democrats, including some inside the Obama re-election effort, say privately that Jon Huntsman is one GOP nominee they would rather not face in November 2012."[39]


Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi 		March 20, 2011: The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reported, "Republican Haley Barbour sat in one of those beige hotel meeting rooms that fill this city of endless meetings. Nearing the end of his second and final term as Mississippi's governor, he hasn't formally declared but clearly is on the verge of running for president." [40]

March 21, 2011: The Washington Post reported, "Those likely candidates include former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, seen as a fragile frontrunner in the GOP sweepstakes; Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who has been locking up talent and traveling to key states; and former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who has done everything to show he plans to run except form a presidential committee."[41]


Former United States Ambassador to the United Nations John R. Bolton of Maryland 		March 18, 2011: The Los Angeles Times reported that Bolton "is weighing a presidential run in 2012."[42]

March 21, 2011: San Francisco Chronicle reported that Haley Barbour and Bolton are "possible 2012 presidential candidates."[43]


Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota 		March 14, 2011: CNN reported "She is also looking more and more like a presidential candidate, most recently in her whirlwind swing through the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire. A source tells CNN that the Republican lawmaker is increasingly close to actually announcing a presidential bid."[44]

March 21, 2011: The Washington Post reported, "Considerable uncertainty surrounds the Republican race, considered to be as wide open as any in recent years. Among those still waiting to be heard from are former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008; former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin; Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels; and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota."[45]


Former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska 		March 13, 2011: In an opinion-editorial in The Hill, former New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg listed Palin as a potential presidential candidate who could still be viable even if she didn't do well in the New Hampshire primary.[46]

March 21, 2011: The Washington Post reported, "Considerable uncertainty surrounds the Republican race, considered to be as wide open as any in recent years. Among those still waiting to be heard from are former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008; former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin; Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels; and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota."[47]


Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York 		March 17, 2011: Newsweek reported "Rudy Giuliani is headed up to New Hampshire to deliver the keynote address at the Manchester Republican Committee's Lincoln Reagan Dinner on Friday night. Could the trip to the bellwether state be a signal that the former New York City mayor, who’s been out of office nearly a decade and flamed out early in the 2008 presidential campaign, is about to make another run at the presidency? The answer may actually be yes."[48]

March 19, 2011: Politico reported "It was [Giuliani's] first trip to New Hampshire of the 2012 cycle, and the first since he made clear he’s contemplating another run for president — one that could offer redemption for his dismal fourth-place finish in the first-in-the-nation primary last time."[49]


Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania 		March 15, 2011: The Boston Herald reported, "The Bay State’s signature health-care reform law could sink former Gov. Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign, warned former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, a Pennsylvania Republican who’s been eying a presidential run."[50]

March 18, 2011: The State Column reported, "Mr. Santorum, who endorsed Mr. Romney in 2008, said he does not plan to support Mr. Romney in 2012 because “It’s a different field. It’s a different set of issues.”The announcement comes as Mr. Santorum prepares for his own run for president. The Pennsylvania Republican has traveled to a number of states in recent months, meeting with potential supporters and key political figures."[51]


Representative Ron Paul of Texas 		March 11, 2011: Simon Constable wrote in The Wall Street Journal: "Tea-party favorite Rep. Ron Paul says a dollar crisis would make him run for president in 2012."[52]

March 14, 2011: Chris Good of The Atlantic wrote: "One of the big unsolved mysteries of the 2012 presidential election has been whether or not Ron Paul will run. Here's an indication that he's at least seriously considering it: Paul's political organization, the Liberty PAC, has raised $1.1 million over the last month."[53]


Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico 		March 9, 2011: The Daily Caller listed Johnson among six religious Republicans who "have floated the possibility that they’ll run against President Obama this year."[54]

March 14, 2011: Fox News reported, "Gary Johnson's political advocacy committee, OUR America Initiative, recently sent out a request for donations, which could indicate the former New Mexico Governor is moving closer to a formal run for the GOP nomination."[55]


Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts 		March 11, 2011: The Boston Globe reported "Likely presidential candidate Mitt Romney wants to use the promise of huge tax breaks to entice large corporations to move their overseas profits back to the United States, in hopes they would create a wealth of new jobs for US workers."[56]

March 13, 2011: The Washington Post reported "All-but-certain candidates Mitt Romney and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty have lined up pieces of their fundraising teams; others are moving more slowly. None is eager to start spending."[57]

Declined to run

The following people, who were speculated to be potential candidates have – following the 2010 midterm elections – clearly and unequivocally denied interest publicly, or released Shermanesque statements. This also includes anyone who has endorsed a declared candidate.

Previous

The following people have been the object of presidential speculation in past media reports, but have not recently signaled an interest in actually running. This gallery does not include people who have declined to run (See above).

Hypothetical polling

References

  1. ^ "SeeThe Rules of the Republican Party, Rule 10(d)" (PDF). Republican Party.
  2. ^ Associated Press (August 6, 2010) "GOP Approves Changes To 2012 Primary Calendar", The Huffington Post. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  3. ^ Results: WMUR, ABC News, NH GOP 2012 Straw Poll
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  67. ^ "Gov. Bobby Jindal: $5,000 for duck hunting". November 28, 2010.
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