2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

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Republican presidential primaries, 2012
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Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic



The Republican presidential primaries for the United States presidential election of 2012 will be held in the 2012 calendar year and be used to determine the presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Calendar

Guidelines for primary and caucus dates

A temporary committee of the Republican National Committee (RNC), set up in 2010, recommended a new plan. Under this plan, the traditional states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina) would hold their events in February, states' elected delegates proportionally could hold their events in March, with winner-take-all states and any other remaining states holding their events from April onward.[1] The amendment was passed in August 2010 by the full RNC by a vote of 144–103.[2]

Straw polls

January 22, 2011, Derry, New Hampshire – New Hampshire Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 New Hampshire Straw Poll were as follows:[3]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Mitt Romney 35%
2 Ron Paul 11%
3 Tim Pawlenty 8%
4 Sarah Palin 7%
5 Michele Bachmann 5%
6 Jim DeMint 5%
7 Herman Cain 4%
8 Chris Christie 3%
9 Rick Santorum 3%
10 Mitch Daniels 3%
11 Newt Gingrich 3%
12 Mike Huckabee 3%
13 Mike Pence 3%
February 10–12, 2011, Washington, D.C. – CPAC Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 CPAC Straw Poll were as follows:[4]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Ron Paul 30%
2 Mitt Romney 23%
3 Gary E. Johnson 6%
4 Chris Christie 6%
5 Newt Gingrich 5%
6 Tim Pawlenty 4%
7 Michelle Bachmann 4%
8 Mitch Daniels 4%
9 Sarah Palin 3%
10 Herman Cain 2%
11 Mike Huckabee 2%
12 Rick Santorum 2%
13 John Thune 2%
14 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 1%
15 Haley Barbour 1%
February 27, 2011, Phoenix, Arizona – Tea Party Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 Tea Party Straw Poll were as follows:[5]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Herman Cain 22%
2 Tim Pawlenty 16%
3 Ron Paul 15%
4 Sarah Palin 10%
5 Mitt Romney 7%
6 Michelle Bachmann 6%
March 6, 2011, Seaside, Oregon – Dorchester Conference Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 Dorchester Conference Straw Poll were as follows:[6]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Mitch Daniels 30%
2 Mitt Romney 23%
3 Sarah Palin 18%
4 Mike Huckabee 10%
5 Newt Gingrich 6%
6 Ron Paul 5%
7 Tim Pawlenty 4%
8 Haley Barbour 2%
9 Donald Trump 2%
March 15, 2011, Washington, D.C. – National League of Cities Straw Poll

Results from the 2011 National League of Cities Straw Poll were as follows:[7]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage
1 Mitt Romney 53%
2 Mike Huckabee 9%
3 Mitch Daniels 6%
4 Newt Gingrich 6%
5 Haley Barbour 3%
6 Donald Trump 3%
7 Chris Christie 3%
8 Jon Huntsman 3%
9 Sarah Palin 3%
10 Paul Ryan 3%
11 Ted Turner 3%
12 Joe Wilson 3%
March 20, 2011, Sacramento, California – Republican Liberty Caucus of California Presidential Straw Poll

Republican Liberty Caucus straw poll at the 2011 California Republican convention [8]

Finish Potential candidate Percentage Votes
1 Ron Paul 17.8% 36
2 Mitt Romney 10.9% 22
3 Sarah Palin 7.9% 16
4 Newt Gingrich 6.9% 14
5 Michele Bachmann 6.4% 13
6 Rudy Giuliani 5.4% 11
6 Mike Huckabee 5.4% 11
6 Tim Pawlenty 5.4% 11
9 Mitch Daniels 5.0% 10
9 Undecided 5.0% 10

Finishing with less than ten votes were, in order, John Bolton, Gary Johnson, Herman Cain, Haley Barbour, Rick Santorum, John Huntsman, Jr., Donald Trump, Chris Christie, Jim DeMint, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Colin Powell, Allen West, Tom McClintock, Dana Perino, and None of the Above. [8]

August 13, 2011, Ames, Iowa – Ames Straw Poll
September 22, 2011, Orlando, Florida – Presidency 5 straw poll[9]
October 7–9, 2011, Washington, D.C. – Values Voter Straw Poll
November 5, 2011, Springfield, Illinois – Illinois Republican Straw Poll[10]

Debates

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential debates, 2012

The following debates have been scheduled so far:[11][12]

Primary and caucus dates

  • February 1 – March 5, 2012: Early states (Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, Nevada caucuses, South Carolina primary)[13]
    • February 6 – Confirmed date of the Iowa caucuses[14]
    • February 14 – Expected date of New Hampshire primary
    • February 18 – Confirmed date of the Nevada caucuses
  • March 6–31, 2012: Primaries (and other contests) that provide for proportional allocation of delegates to the candidates, and all nonbinding caucuses;
  • April 1, 2012 onward: All other contests.

Convention

The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled to take place the week of August 27, 2012[15] in Tampa, Florida,[16] the week prior to when the 2012 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place.[17]

Candidates

The following individuals have formally announced that they are running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 and/or have filed as a candidate for such with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Declared


Perennial candidate Jimmy McMillan from New York (Website) 		On December 23, 2010, McMillan announced on Revolution Radio that he will seek the Republican nomination for President. McMillan, a registered Democrat and founder of the non-qualified Rent Is Too Damn High Party, stated he wanted to avoid a Democratic primary and would switch to the Republican Party to run.[18][19][20]

Announced exploration of potential candidacy

The following people either have formed, or have indicated an intention to form, an exploratory committee to examine the prospects of a campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.


Business magnate and radio talk show host Herman Cain of Georgia

(campaign)
(website)

Cain announced in January of 2011 that he had formed an exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination[21][22]
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia

(campaign)
(website)

On March 3, 2011, filed papers with the I.R.S. designating Newt Exploratory 2012 as a new organization formed to explore a possible candidacy.[23][24]

Political consultant and gay rights activist Fred Karger of California (website) 		In August of 2010, Karger formed an exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.[25][26][27]
Former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota

(campaign)
(website)

Pawlenty announced the formation of an exploratory committee on March 21, 2011.[28]

Former Governor Buddy Roemer of Louisiana

(campaign) (website)

Announced the formation of an exploratory committee on March 3, 2011.[29][30]

Prospective candidates

Current

As the primaries are not scheduled to begin until early 2012, it is too early to definitively determine which prominent public figures will run. The following is a list of individuals who are being discussed – in two or more unique, reputable sources that are less than one month old – in regard to the 2012 primary. They are listed in order of the date of the most recent media citation.


Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana 		March 21, 2011: The Wall Street Journal wrote, "Daniels, who turns 62 next month, said he has not made up his mind about running, but Democrats have certainly noticed him." [31]

March 21, 2011: ABC News reported, "Daniels, often mentioned as a possible Republican candidate for 2012, has signed with Sentinel, a conservative imprint of Penguin Group (USA). His greatest concern having long been fiscal policy, the book, by intention, is no more glamorous than its tentative title: 'Keeping the Republic: Limited Government, Unlimited Citizens.'"[32]


Former United States Ambassador to the United Nations John R. Bolton of Maryland 		March 18, 2011: The Los Angeles Times reported that Bolton "is weighing a presidential run in 2012."[33]

March 21, 2011: San Francisco Chronicle reported that Haley Barbour and Bolton are "possible 2012 presidential candidates."[34]


Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi 		March 15, 2011 Politico reported "It's Barbour's second visit to [Iowa] in the last month, and he's slated to be back next week for Rep. Steve King's PAC gathering in Des Moines. He gave a major economic address Monday in Chicago, and he's also heading to New Hampshire on March 29, an aide said. The uptick in activity is an unmistakable sign that Barbour is planning to run for president in 2012."[35]

March 20, 2011 The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reported "Republican Haley Barbour sat in one of those beige hotel meeting rooms that fill this city of endless meetings. Nearing the end of his second and final term as Mississippi's governor, he hasn't formally declared but clearly is on the verge of running for president." [36]


Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York 		March 17, 2011: Newsweek reported "Rudy Giuliani is headed up to New Hampshire to deliver the keynote address at the Manchester Republican Committee's Lincoln Reagan Dinner on Friday night. Could the trip to the bellwether state be a signal that the former New York City mayor, who’s been out of office nearly a decade and flamed out early in the 2008 presidential campaign, is about to make another run at the presidency? The answer may actually be yes."[37]

March 19, 2011: Politico reported "It was [Giuliani's] first trip to New Hampshire of the 2012 cycle, and the first since he made clear he’s contemplating another run for president — one that could offer redemption for his dismal fourth-place finish in the first-in-the-nation primary last time."[38]


Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania 		March 15, 2011: The Boston Herald reported, "The Bay State’s signature health-care reform law could sink former Gov. Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign, warned former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, a Pennsylvania Republican who’s been eying a presidential run."[39]

March 18, 2011: The State Column reported, "Mr. Santorum, who endorsed Mr. Romney in 2008, said he does not plan to support Mr. Romney in 2012 because “It’s a different field. It’s a different set of issues.”The announcement comes as Mr. Santorum prepares for his own run for president. The Pennsylvania Republican has traveled to a number of states in recent months, meeting with potential supporters and key political figures."[40]


Businessman Donald Trump of New York 		March 14, 2011: Michael Falcone of ABC News reported: "Donald Trump sent another signal....that he is seriously considering a presidential run, accepting an invitation to speak at an early summer political event in New Hampshire."[41]

March 17, 2011: Headline of New York Daily News article:"Donald Trump for President in 2012? Billionaire says he's ready to spend $600 million on campaign"[42]


Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota 		March 12, 2011: The Boston Globe reported "Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann held aloft a tea bag at a Republican fundraiser in a Nashua hotel today, drawing loud approval for the reference to the Tea Party and its inference of revolution. Bachmann, one of the Tea Party's shining lights in Congress who is considering a run for president."[43]

March 14, 2011: CNN reported "She is also looking more and more like a presidential candidate, most recently in her whirlwind swing through the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire. A source tells CNN that the Republican lawmaker is increasingly close to actually announcing a presidential bid."[44]


Representative Ron Paul of Texas 		March 11, 2011: Simon Constable wrote in The Wall Street Journal: "Tea-party favorite Rep. Ron Paul says a dollar crisis would make him run for president in 2012."[45]

March 14, 2011: Chris Good of The Atlantic wrote: "One of the big unsolved mysteries of the 2012 presidential election has been whether or not Ron Paul will run. Here's an indication that he's at least seriously considering it: Paul's political organization, the Liberty PAC, has raised $1.1 million over the last month."[46]


Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico 		March 9, 2011: The Daily Caller listed Johnson among six religious Republicans who "have floated the possibility that they’ll run against President Obama this year."[47]

March 14, 2011: Fox News reported, "Gary Johnson's political advocacy committee, OUR America Initiative, recently sent out a request for donations, which could indicate the former New Mexico Governor is moving closer to a formal run for the GOP nomination."[48]


Former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee of Florida[49] 		March 6, 2011: The Clarion-Ledger reported "A possible candidate for the 2012 GOP nomination for president, Huckabee has grabbed headlines over the past week because of comments he made about pregnant Oscar winner Natalie Portman."[50]

March 14, 2011: Fox News reported, "Sources close to Mike Huckabee tell Fox News the former Arkansas Gov. is "literally 50-50" on whether or not to make another run at the presidency in 2012." [51]


Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts 		March 11, 2011: The Boston Globe reported "Likely presidential candidate Mitt Romney wants to use the promise of huge tax breaks to entice large corporations to move their overseas profits back to the United States, in hopes they would create a wealth of new jobs for US workers."[52]

March 13, 2011: The Washington Post reported "All-but-certain candidates Mitt Romney and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty have lined up pieces of their fundraising teams; others are moving more slowly. None is eager to start spending."[53]


Former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska 		March 11, 2011: Politico reported "that Palin would base a campaign in Scottsdale, Arizona."[54]

March 13, 2011: In an opinion-editorial in The Hill, former New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg listed Palin as a potential presidential candidate who could still be viable even if she didn't do well in the New Hampshire primary.[55]


United States Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, Jr. of Utah 		March 8, 2011: Politico reported "To listen to them tell it, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is a health care visionary and U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman is a loyal foot soldier of the administration. The political calculus behind that praise is straightforward: by wrapping their arms around some of the GOP’s most credible and deep-pocketed potential challengers, Democrats undermine the party’s attempt to win over its conservative base in the primary."[56]

March 8, 2011: Roll Call reported "State Rep. Carl Wimmer and state Sen. Howard Stephenson, two Utah Republicans who have dealt with Huntsman over the years, each described the ambassador as honest, respectful, likeable, politically astute — and moderate. Neither expects Huntsman to fare well in the 2012 GOP presidential primary, should he run."[57]

Declined to run

The following people, who were speculated to be potential candidates have – following the 2010 midterm elections – clearly and unequivocally denied interest publicly, or released Shermanesque statements. This also includes anyone who has endorsed a declared candidate.

Previous

The following people have been the object of presidential speculation in past media reports, but have not recently signaled an interest in actually running. This gallery does not include people who have declined to run (See above).

Hypothetical polling

References

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