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2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2022 Pennsylvania Senate election.

2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Pat Toomey
Republican



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The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. Senators, elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as a gubernatorial election, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

The election is expected to be competitive and important to determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate in 2023. This is attributed to the seat being an open Republican-held one located in a state that President Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.[1] Pennsylvania is seen by many Democrats as the best possible pickup of all the Class 3 seats.[2]

On October 5, 2020, incumbent two-term Republican Senator Pat Toomey announced that he would not run for re-election to a third term and currently plans "to go back to the private sector" at the conclusion of his term.[3][4] Previously, he had openly said he was considering running for the governorship instead of running for re-election to the Senate.[5]

Republican primary

Background

Businessman Jeff Bartos, with strong fund-raising totals, and veteran Sean Parnell, with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, emerged as the race's two front-runners.[6] Parnell's campaign was rocked in November 2021, after Parnell's ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court that Parnell strangled and spit on her, abused their children, and told her to "go get an abortion".[7]

Candidates

Declared


Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Kathy Barnette
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Individuals
  • Tomi Lahren, conservative political commentator and former television host[8]
Jeff Bartos
State Executives
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Sean Parnell
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Carla Sands
Executive Branch officials
Craig Snyder (withdrawn)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kathy
Barnette 		Jeff
Bartos 		Sean
Gale 		Sean
Parnell 		Carla
Sands 		Other Undecided
Civiqs (D) October 31 – November 5, 2021 799 (LV) ± 3.5% 7% 6% 2% 31% 8% – 54%
Franklin & Marshall College October 18–24, 2021 184 (RV) ± 8.8% 3% 2% 0% 11% 2% 3% 78%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[A] October 11–14, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 7% – 27% 4% 5% 57%
Franklin & Marshall College August 9–15, 2021 154 (RV) ± 10.9% 6% 4% 3% 14% 1% 7% 66%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Potential

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Val Arkoosh
Organizations
John Fetterman
Labor Unions
Organizations
Individuals
Malcolm Kenyatta
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals
Conor Lamb
Statewide officials
State Legislators
Labor unions
Organizations
Local officials
Sharif Street
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Val
Arkoosh 		John
Fetterman 		Malcolm
Kenyatta 		Conor
Lamb 		Sharif
Street 		Other Undecided
Civiqs (D) October 31 – November 5, 2021 929 (LV) ± 3.2% 2% 52% 5% 12% 2% 6% 21%
Franklin & Marshall College October 18–24, 2021 208 (RV) ± 8.2% 4% 34% 5% 12% 5% 3% 37%
Franklin & Marshall College August 9–15, 2021 175 (RV) ± 10.2% 6% 33% 5% 12% 0% 3% 42%
Data for Progress (D)[B] May 7–14, 2021 302 (LV) ± 6.0% 5% 40% 9% 21% 2% 8%[b] 14%

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[105] Tossup July 16, 2021
Inside Elections[106] Battleground October 8, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[107] Tossup March 11, 2021

Polling

Jeff Bartos vs. John Fetterman
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Bartos (R) 		John
Fetterman (D) 		Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[C] May 10–19, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.7% 36% 45% 19%
Data for Progress (D)[B] May 7–14, 2021 310 (LV) ± 5.6% 38% 48% 14%
Sean Parnell vs. John Fetterman
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		John
Fetterman (D) 		Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[C] May 10–19, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.7% 42% 42% 16%
Data for Progress (D)[B] May 7–14, 2021 310 (LV) ± 5.6% 40% 48% 12%
Jeff Bartos vs. Conor Lamb
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Bartos (R) 		Conor
Lamb (D) 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[B] May 7–14, 2021 341 (LV) ± 5.3% 42% 43% 15%
Sean Parnell vs. Conor Lamb
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		Conor
Lamb (D) 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[B] May 7–14, 2021 341 (LV) ± 5.3% 44% 42% 14%

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Houlahan with 8%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Parnell's campaign
  2. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by Fetterman's campaign
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Collective PAC

References

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