2016 United States presidential election in Arizona
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| Elections in Arizona |
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The 2016 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]
Despite the country at-large swinging to the right, Arizona's Republican margin of victory decreased from 9.0% in 2012[2] to only 3.5% in 2016, thus making it one of 11 states (along with the District of Columbia) to swing toward the Democratic Party in this election. Trump's margin of victory in Arizona was the smallest for any Republican who won the presidency since Arizona's founding in 1912, with Calvin Coolidge's 5.8% victory in 1924 being the second closest.
Notably, Maricopa County, the state's most populous county, went more Democratic than the state as a whole for the first time in state history. The county had not voted for a Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948. Therefore, Trump's narrow win in the county suggested the Republican Party was losing ground in the state. In fact, the county and the state would go on to vote Democratic in 2020.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]
Six candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[3]
- Bernie Sanders
- Hillary Clinton
- Rocky De La Fuente
- Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)
- Henry Hewes
- Michael Steinberg
Opinion polling
[edit]Results
[edit]
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Hillary Clinton | 262,459 | 56.3% | 42 | 6 | 48 |
| Bernie Sanders | 192,962 | 41.4% | 33 | 1 | 34 |
| Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) | 3,877 | 0.8% | |||
| Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente | 2,797 | 0.6% | |||
| Michael Steinberg | 2,295 | 0.5% | |||
| Henry Hewes | 1,845 | 0.4% | |||
| Uncommitted | — | 3 | 3 | ||
| Total | 466,235 | 100% | 75 | 10 | 85 |
| Source: The Green Papers, Arizona Secretary of State | |||||
Detailed results per congressional district
| District | Total | Hillary Clinton | Bernie Sanders | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Delegates | Votes | % | Delegates | Votes | % | Delegates | |
| 1st district | 63,863 | 6 | 35,445 | 55.5% | 3 | 26,267 | 41.1% | 3 |
| 2nd district | 78,237 | 8 | 42,797 | 54.7% | 4 | 33,891 | 43.3% | 4 |
| 3rd district | 51,520 | 5 | 30,298 | 58.8% | 3 | 20,091 | 39.0% | 2 |
| 4th district | 37,273 | 4 | 15,289 | 55.4% | 2 | 20,662 | 41.0% | 2 |
| 5th district | 40,847 | 5 | 22,973 | 56.2% | 3 | 16,982 | 41.6% | 2 |
| 6th district | 50,465 | 6 | 29,266 | 58.0% | 4 | 20,259 | 40.1% | 2 |
| 7th district | 42,199 | 5 | 24,245 | 57.5% | 3 | 17,173 | 40.7% | 2 |
| 8th district | 46,491 | 5 | 27,672 | 59.5% | 3 | 17,651 | 38.0% | 2 |
| 9th district | 55,340 | 6 | 29,101 | 52.6% | 3 | 25,359 | 45.8% | 3 |
| At-large delegates | 466,235 | 16 | 262,459 | 56.3% | 9 | 192,962 | 41.4% | 7 |
| Pledged PLEOs | 466,235 | 9 | 262,459 | 56.3% | 5 | 192,962 | 41.4% | 4 |
| Total | 466,235 | 75 | 262,464 | 56.3% | 42 | 192,965 | 41.4% | 33 |
Republican primary
[edit]
Fourteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[6]
- Jeb Bush (withdrawn)
- Ben Carson (withdrawn)
- Chris Christie (withdrawn)
- Ted Cruz
- Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)
- Lindsey Graham (withdrawn)
- Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)
- John Kasich
- George Pataki (withdrawn)
- Rand Paul (withdrawn)
- Marco Rubio (withdrawn)
- Rick Santorum (withdrawn)
- Tim Cook
- Donald Trump
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 286,743 | 45.95% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
| Ted Cruz | 172,294 | 27.61% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Rubio (withdrawn) | 72,304 | 11.59% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich | 65,965 | 10.57% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson (withdrawn) | 14,940 | 2.39% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 4,393 | 0.70% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 2,269 | 0.36% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) | 1,300 | 0.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 1,270 | 0.20% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 988 | 0.16% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 523 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) | 498 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Pataki (withdrawn) | 309 | 0.05% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Timothy Cook (withdrawn) | 243 | 0.04% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 624,039 | 100.00% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
Green primary
[edit]
The Arizona Green Party held its primary on March 22. Jill Stein won with 82% of the vote, and the overall number of voters that took place in the primary saw an increase from 561 in 2012 to 770 in 2016.[7] Only two candidates qualified for the primary:[8]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | National delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jill Stein
|
666 | 82% | 5 |
| Kent Mesplay | 151 | 18% | 1 |
| Write-in/Blank | 18 | 0% | - |
| Total | 817 | 100.0% | 6 |
General election
[edit]Polling
[edit]The first poll conducted in March 2016 showed a tie between Clinton and Trump. From March 2016 to October, the polling in this normally Republican state was quite close, with neither candidate seriously leading. In late October, Trump gained momentum and won every pre-election poll in the weeks leading up to the election. The final poll showed Trump leading Clinton 46% to 41% and the average of the final 3 polls showed Trump leading 47% to 43%, which was accurate compared to the results.[10]
Predictions
[edit]The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Arizona as of Election Day.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[11] | Lean D (flip) | November 6, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[12] | Tilt R | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| CNN[14] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| NBC[15] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[16] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[17] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| ABC[18] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Results
[edit]| 2016 United States presidential election in Arizona[19] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Popular vote | Electoral vote | Swing | ||||
| Count | % | Count | % | ||||||
| Republican | Donald Trump of New York | Mike Pence of Indiana | 1,252,401 | 48.1% | 11 | 100.0% |  5.4%
| ||
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton of New York | Tim Kaine of Virginia | 1,161,167 | 44.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 0.1%
| ||
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson of New Mexico | Bill Weld of Massachusetts | 106,327 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 2.7%
| ||
| Green | Jill Stein of Massachusetts | Ajamu Baraka of Illinois | 34,345 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 1.0%
| ||
| Write-in | Various of Various | Various of Various | 31,662 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 0.9%
| ||
| Independent | Evan McMullin (write-in) of Utah | Nathan Johnson of California | 17,449 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 0.7%
| ||
| Constitution | Darrell L. Castle (write-in) of Tennessee | Scott N. Bradley of Utah | 1,058 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0%
| ||
| Independent | Tom Hoefling (write-in) of Iowa | Steve Schulin of South Carolina | 85 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 
| ||
| Independent | Mike Smith (write-in) of Tennessee | Daniel L. White of Texas | 62 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| ||
| Independent | Laurence Kotlikoff (write-in) of Massachusetts | Edward E. Leamer of California | 52 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| ||
| Reform | Rocky De La Fuente (write-in) of California | Michael Steinberg of Florida | 29 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| ||
| Independent | Joseph Allen Maldonado (write-in) of Oklahoma | Douglas Terranova of Texas | 20 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| ||
| Total | 2,604,657 | 100.0% | 11 | 100.0% | |||||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Apache | 8,240 | 29.79% | 17,083 | 61.76% | 2,338 | 8.45% | -8,843 | -31.97% | 27,661 |
| Cochise | 28,092 | 56.17% | 17,450 | 34.89% | 4,473 | 8.94% | 10,642 | 21.28% | 50,015 |
| Coconino | 21,108 | 35.31% | 32,404 | 54.20% | 6,272 | 10.49% | -11,296 | -18.89% | 59,784 |
| Gila | 14,182 | 62.99% | 7,003 | 31.10% | 1,330 | 5.91% | 7,179 | 31.89% | 22,515 |
| Graham | 8,025 | 65.34% | 3,301 | 26.88% | 955 | 7.78% | 4,724 | 38.46% | 12,281 |
| Greenlee | 1,892 | 57.33% | 1,092 | 33.09% | 316 | 9.58% | 800 | 24.24% | 3,300 |
| La Paz | 4,003 | 67.27% | 1,575 | 26.47% | 373 | 6.27% | 2,428 | 40.80% | 5,951 |
| Maricopa | 747,361 | 47.67% | 702,907 | 44.83% | 117,566 | 7.50% | 44,454 | 2.84% | 1,567,834 |
| Mohave | 58,282 | 72.90% | 17,455 | 21.83% | 4,206 | 5.26% | 40,827 | 51.07% | 79,943 |
| Navajo | 20,577 | 51.07% | 16,459 | 40.85% | 3,258 | 8.09% | 4,118 | 10.22% | 40,294 |
| Pima | 167,428 | 39.71% | 224,661 | 53.28% | 29,551 | 7.01% | -57,233 | -13.57% | 421,640 |
| Pinal | 72,819 | 56.21% | 47,892 | 36.97% | 8,835 | 6.82% | 24,927 | 19.24% | 129,546 |
| Santa Cruz | 3,897 | 23.71% | 11,690 | 71.14% | 846 | 5.15% | -7,793 | -47.43% | 16,433 |
| Yavapai | 71,330 | 62.32% | 35,590 | 31.10% | 7,530 | 6.58% | 35,740 | 31.22% | 114,450 |
| Yuma | 25,165 | 47.47% | 24,605 | 46.42% | 3,240 | 6.11% | 560 | 1.05% | 53,010 |
| Totals | 1,252,401 | 48.08% | 1,161,167 | 44.58% | 191,089 | 7.34% | 91,234 | 3.50% | 2,604,657 |
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 5 of 9 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.[20]
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 47.7% | 46.6% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
| Tom O'Halleran | |||
| 2nd | 44.7% | 49.6% | Martha McSally |
| 3rd | 32.5% | 62.4% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 4th | 67.7% | 27.5% | Paul Gosar |
| 5th | 57.6% | 36.5% | Matt Salmon |
| Andy Biggs | |||
| 6th | 52.4% | 42.4% | David Schweikert |
| 7th | 22.6% | 71.8% | Ruben Gallego |
| 8th | 58.1% | 37.0% | Trent Franks |
| 9th | 38.4% | 54.7% | Kyrsten Sinema |
Turnout
[edit]Voter Turnout was 74.2% with 2,661,497 ballots cast out of 3,588,466 voters.[21]
Analysis
[edit]Donald Trump won Arizona with a margin of 3.5%, a reduced margin from Mitt Romney's 9.0% margin in 2012.[22] Arizona was among the eleven states in which Hillary Clinton outperformed Barack Obama's margin in 2012,[23] primarily due to an increase in Hispanic voter turnout in southern Arizona, including heavily populated Maricopa County. This was the weakest performance for a Republican in the state since 1992. Trump also lost the 2nd congressional district that Romney had won four years earlier.
Maricopa County in particular went from a 10.7% margin of victory for Romney in 2012 to a 2.8% margin of victory for Trump, making this only one of three times that a Democrat held the county's margins to single digits since 1952. Indeed, the only other times were 1964 and 1996. Clinton also came the closest of any Democrat to winning Yuma County since La Paz County broke off from it in the 1980s, as the county was last carried by a Democrat in 1964.
Other rural counties that Bill Clinton had won in the 1990s continued to trend in a Republican direction, namely the formerly union-heavy Gila, Graham, and Greenlee counties. In terms of percentage of the vote, Trump's strongest support was in the northwest of the state, including Mohave County, which was the only county to give him over 70% of the vote. Clinton did best in the southern-central region along the US-Mexico border. Santa Cruz and Pima counties (home to Tucson) were among her strongest and among the places in the state where she outperformed Barack Obama in 2012.
Electors
[edit]Arizona had 11 electors in 2016. All of them voted for Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president.
The electors were
- Bruce Ash
- Walter Begay
- Sharon Giese
- Robert Graham
- Alberto Gutier
- Jerry Hayden
- Carole Joyce
- Jane Pierpoint Lynch
- J. Foster Morgan
- James O'Connor
- Edward Robson
See also
[edit]- 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2016 Green Party presidential primaries
- 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
References
[edit]- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
- ^ Hobbs, Katie. "Arizona Secretary of State 2012 Election Information". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved November 6, 2020.
- ^ "Democratic Party Candidates – Presidential Preference Election 2016". azsos.gov. Secretary of State of Arizona. Archived from the original on September 9, 2016. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
- ^ "Arizona Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com.
- ^ "2016 Arizona District-Level Delegate Math" (PDF). Arizona Democratic Party. April 5, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2016. Retrieved April 8, 2016.
- ^ "Republican Party Candidates – Presidential Preference Election 2016 | Arizona Secretary of State". Azsos.gov. March 7, 2015. Archived from the original on December 3, 2016. Retrieved December 1, 2016.
- ^ "Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary Results". Ballot Access News. March 23, 2016. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
- ^ "Two Candidates Qualify for Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary; Six Qualify for Democratic Primary". Ballot Access News. December 14, 2015. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
- ^ "Unofficial 2016 Presidential Preference Election Results". azsos.gov. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – Arizona: Trump vs. Clinton". www.realclearpolitics.com.
- ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Road to 270: CNN's general election map – CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps – Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Presidential General Election Results – Arizona".
- ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
- ^ "Arizona Secretary of State Election Night Reporting". Results.arizona.vote. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
- ^ "Arizona Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
- ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections – County Data".
External links
[edit]- RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived November 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
