Jump to content

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska: Difference between revisions

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Browse history interactively
← Previous editNext edit →
Content deleted Content added
VisualWikitext
No edit summary
MikeLudz (talk | contribs)
240 edits
Line 306: Line 306:
! Other
! Other
! Undecided
! Undecided
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Health-Care-Could-Be-Deciding-Factor-in-Close-Alaska-Senate-Race.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)]
|Oct 19–20, 2020
|800 (V)
|± 3.5%
|{{party shading/Republican}}|'''44%'''
|41%
|5%
| –
|10%
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ak100920-crosstabs1/722c27f1f660cf21/full.pdf Siena College/NYT Upshot]
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ak100920-crosstabs1/722c27f1f660cf21/full.pdf Siena College/NYT Upshot]

Revision as of 19:21, 21 October 2020

Not to be confused with 2020 Alaska Senate election.
2020 United States Senate election in Alaska
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Nominee Dan Sullivan Al Gross[a] John Howe
Party Republican Independent Independence
Incumbent U.S. senator

Dan Sullivan
Republican



Elections in Alaska
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries and caucuses
Democratic
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
State government
Statewide elections
Gubernatorial elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Ballot measures
Anchorage
Mayoral elections
Propositions

The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is running for re–election to a second term in office, while independent candidate Al Gross, son of Avrum Gross, is running with the support of the Democratic Party.[1]

Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020.[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Dan Sullivan
U.S. federal officials

Primary results

Republican primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent) 65,257 100.0%
Total votes 65,257 100.0%

Libertarian-Democratic-Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[8]

Democratic candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified from the ballot

  • Larry N. Barnes (Independent)[5][b]

Withdrawn

  • David Darden (Independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election[5]

Alaskan Independence candidates

Nominee

  • John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist[11]

Endorsements

Al Gross
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Union

Primary results

Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Al Gross 50,047 79.87%
Democratic Edgar Blatchford 5,463 8.72%
Independence John Howe 4,165 6.65%
Independent Christopher Cumings 2,989 4.77%
Total votes 62,664 100.0%

Other candidates

Green Party

Nominee

Independent

Declared

Withdrawn

  • David Matheny, wildfire technician[28][29]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[30] Lean R October 13, 2020
FiveThirtyEight[31] Lean R October 7, 2020
Economist[32] Lean R October 6, 2020
Daily Kos[33] Likely R October 6, 2020
DDHQ[34] Lean R October 5, 2020
Inside Elections[35] Likely R October 1, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] Lean R October 1, 2020
RCP[37] Likely R September 27, 2020
Niskanen[38] Tossup September 15, 2020
Politico[39] Lean R September 9, 2020

Endorsements

Dan Sullivan (R)
U.S. Federal Officials
Organizations
Labor Unions
Al Gross (I)
U.S. Senators
State Executives
  • Tony Knowles, Governor of Alaska (1994-2002), Mayor of Anchorage (1981-1987)[46]
Local Officials
Individuals
Organizations
Unions

Polls

Graphical summary
Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Dan
Sullivan (R) 		Al
Gross (I) 		John
Howe (AI) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) Oct 19–20, 2020 800 (V) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 5% – 10%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 9–14, 2020 423 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 37% 10% 2%[d] 7%[e]
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[A] October 10–13, 2020 606 (LV) ± 4% 46% 47% – – –
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[A] October 2–6, 2020 600 (LV) – 46% 46% – – –
Patinkin Research Strategies September 30 – October 4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 46% 47% – 2%[f] 5%
Alaska Survey Research September 26 – October 4, 2020 696 (LV) – 48% 44% – – 8%
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[B] September 20–23, 2020 602 (LV) ± 4% 46% 45% – – –
Public Policy Polling (D)[1] August 27–28, 2020 638 (V) ± 3.9% 43% 43% – – 14%
Public Policy Polling[C] July 7–8, 2020 1,081 (V) ± 3.0% 39% 34% – – 27%
Alaska Survey Research June 23 – July 7, 2020 663 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 40% – – 7%
Hypothetical polling
with Forrest Dunbar
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Dan
Sullivan (R) 		Forrest
Dunbar (D) 		Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 – Jun 4, 2019 500 (LV) – 39% 39% 22%
with Forrest Dunbar as an independent
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Dan
Sullivan (R) 		Forrest
Dunbar (I) 		Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 – June 4, 2019 500 (LV) – 42% 40% 19%

Results

United States Senate election in Alaska, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent)
Independent Al Gross[a]
Independence John Howe
Write-in
Total votes 100.0%

Notes

  1. ^ a b Gross is running as an independent with the nomination of the Democratic Party.
  2. ^ Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
  3. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  5. ^ Includes "Refused"
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll conducted for Gross' campaign.
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC, which has supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period.
  3. ^ Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References

  1. ^ Taylor, Jessica (June 12, 2020). "Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
  2. ^ "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov.
  3. ^ "SULLIVAN, DAN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
  4. ^ McCue, Dan (May 1, 2020). "Center for Politics Adds Alaska to Senate Battleground Map". TheWell News. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  5. ^ a b c d e "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. June 5, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  6. ^ a b "President Trump endorses Sullivan re-election as US senator for Alaska". KTUU. December 18, 2019. Retrieved December 30, 2019.
  7. ^ a b "Alaska Secretary of State's office: Election Summary Report - Official Results" (PDF).
  8. ^ Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018). "Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker". Anchorage Daily News.
  9. ^ "Gross announces candidacy for Alaska US Senate seat". Associated Press. June 2, 2019.
  10. ^ "Alaska - Senate". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  11. ^ "John Wayne Howe, Alaskan Independence Party, runs for U.S. Senate". KTVF News. July 6, 2020.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  12. ^ a b "AK-Sen: Pete Buttigieg Jumps In To Help Dr. Al Gross (I) Take Away Moscow Mitch's Majority". Daily Kos.
  13. ^ a b c d "Humanity Forward Candidate Endorsements". Humanity Forward.
  14. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates — 314actionfund". 314 Action. Retrieved 27 November 2019.
  15. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates- 2019 Anchorage Municipal Elections".
  16. ^ a b Quinn, Steve (October 11, 2019). "Alaska Democratic Party backs Gross for US Senate". KTVA. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
  17. ^ a b "DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race". DSCC. December 3, 2019.
  18. ^ a b Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
  19. ^ a b J Street Endorsements https://donate.jstreetpac.org/candidate/al-gross-ak-sen/. Retrieved August 6, 2020. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  20. ^ a b "2020 Endorsements".
  21. ^ a b "AAOS Now October 2019: OrthoPAC Endorses AAOS Member Al Gross, MD, for U.S. Senate". www.aaos.org.
  22. ^ a b "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  23. ^ a b "Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project". Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project.
  24. ^ a b "Communications Workers of America Endorses Al Gross (AK) for US Senate". Communications Workers of America. June 11, 2020.
  25. ^ a b "ALASKA". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  26. ^ a b "November 3, 2020 General Election Candidate List". www.elections.alaska.gov. August 31, 2020. Retrieved August 31, 2020.
  27. ^ Maguire, Sean (August 14, 2020). "Meet Alaska's candidates for the U.S. Senate ahead of the Aug. 18 primaries". KTUU. Retrieved August 21, 2020.
  28. ^ Downing, Suzanne (May 11, 2019). "Sen. Sullivan has his first challenger: a Bernie supporter". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  29. ^ "IDENTIFICATION NUMBER: C00705293" (PDF). FEC. May 29, 2019. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  31. ^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
  32. ^ "Why the Democrats are our narrow favourites to win the Senate". The Economist. September 23, 2020. Retrieved September 24, 2020.
  33. ^ "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  34. ^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  35. ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
  36. ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  37. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  38. ^ "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
  39. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  40. ^ "PAEC Issues First Endorsements in 2020 General Election". Calista Corporation.
  41. ^ "BSNC Endorses Dan Sullivan for United States Senate".
  42. ^ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Dan Sullivan for U.S. Senate Representing Alaska". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. July 20, 2020.
  43. ^ "PRESS RELEASE: International Union of Operating Engineers Endorses Senator Dan Sullivan for Re-election - Dan Sullivan for Alaska". dansullivanforalaska.com.
  44. ^ Buxton, Matt (August 12, 2020). "Before joining Democratic ticket, Kamala Harris endorsed Al Gross for U.S. Senate". The Midnight Sun.
  45. ^ https://dralgrosssenate.com
  46. ^ Knowles, Tony (October 19, 2020). "Dr. Al Gross: Independent for U.S. Senator". Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman.
  47. ^ https://duh4all.org/us-house-senate-candidates/us-congress-house-senate.html
  48. ^ "Our Endorsements". DMFI PAC.
  49. ^ "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate". nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.

Further reading

Official campaign websites
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska&oldid=984730001"