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2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom

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2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom
← 2014 23 May 2019
All 73 United Kingdom seats to the European Parliament
  Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May Nigel Farage
Leader Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May Nigel Farage
Party Labour Conservative Brexit Party
Alliance S&D ECR EFDD
Last election 20 seats, 24.4% 19 seats, 23.1% New party
Current seats 18 18 14
  Gerard Batten
Sian Berry and Jonathan Bartley
 Nicola Sturgeon
Leader Gerard Batten Jonathan Bartley and Siân Berry Nicola Sturgeon
Party UKIP Green SNP
Alliance ENF (majority) Greens-EFA Greens-EFA
Last election 24 seats, 26.6% 3 seats, 6.9% 2 seats, 2.4%
Current seats 3 3 2
  Heidi Allen Vince Cable
Leader Heidi Allen
(interim) 		Vince Cable
Party Change UK Liberal Democrats
Alliance EPP[a] ALDE
Last election New party 1 seat, 6.6%
Current seats 2 1

The United Kingdom's component of the 2019 European Parliament election will be held on Thursday 23 May 2019.[1] Initially, the elections were not planned as the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union (following the 2016 referendum) was set for 29 March 2019. However, the British government and the European Council agreed to delay the withdrawal until 31 October 2019 at the European summit on 11 April 2019. While it was then the default position in UK and EU law for the election to take place, the UK Government continued attempts to avoid participation by agreeing withdrawal before 23 May.[2] On 7 May 2019, the UK government conceded that the elections will go ahead.[3]

The elections will be the ninth time the United Kingdom elects MEPs to the European Parliament (fourth for Gibraltar). Candidate nominations were submitted by 16:00 on 25 April 2019, and voter registration was completed on 7 May 2019.[4][5]

It is uncertain for how long, if at all, British MEPs will sit before the withdrawal process is complete, as the extension agreement provides for early termination as soon as the withdrawal agreement is ratified.[6] The UK's withdrawal from the European Union is the central issue of the election campaign.[7]

Voting eligibility

To vote in the election, individuals must be:

  • on the Electoral Register;[5]
  • aged 18 or over on election day;[5]
  • a British, Irish, Commonwealth or European Union citizen;[8]
  • resident at an address in the UK, or a British citizen living abroad who has been registered to vote in the UK in the 15 years before the election;[5][b][9] and
  • not legally excluded from voting[5] (for example, a convicted person detained in prison or a mental hospital, or unlawfully at large if they would otherwise have been detained,[10] or a person found guilty of certain corrupt or illegal practices)[11]

Individuals must have been registered to vote by midnight on 7 May 2019.[12] A person who has two homes, such as a university student with a term-time address but liveing at home during holidays, may be registered to vote at both addresses as long as they are not in the same electoral area, but can vote in only one constituency at the election.[13]

European Union citizens (except for British, Irish, Cypriot and Maltese citizens) must also submit a European Parliament voter registration form by midnight on 7 May 2019 to confirm that they will vote in the European Parliament election only in the UK, and not in their home country.[12][14]

Constituencies

Further information: European Parliament constituencies in the United Kingdom and List of members of the European Parliament for the United Kingdom, 2014–2019

The current breakdown of seats is as follows:

Key to political groups of the European Parliament (UK)[15]
Party Faction in European Parliament
Brexit Party 29 Non-Inscrits 57
DUP 1
Liberal Democrats 16 17   Renew Europe 108
Alliance 1
Green 7 11 Greens–European Free Alliance 75
SNP 3
Plaid Cymru 1
Labour 10   Socialists and Democrats 154
Conservative 4 European Conservatives and Reformists 62
Sinn Féin 1   European United Left–Nordic Green Left 41
Total 73 Total 750

The United Kingdom is divided into 12 multi-member constituencies: the nine regions of England, plus Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Gibraltar is assigned to the South West England constituency. As has been the case since 1999, the English electoral constituencies are based on the government's nine English regions. The seat allocation has been the same since 2008:

Constituency MEPs On election day (2014) At the end of the Eighth European Parliament (2019)
East Midlands 5

#6D3177 #6D3177 #E4003B #0087DC #0087DC

 

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East of England 7

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#6D3177 #12B6CF #D25469 #E4003B #0087DC #0087DC #0087DC

 
London 8

#6D3177 #E4003B #E4003B #E4003B #E4003B #0087DC #0087DC #02A95B

 

#6D3177 #E4003B #E4003B #E4003B #E4003B #0087DC #0087DC #02A95B

 
North East England 3

#6D3177 #E4003B #E4003B

 

#12B6CF #E4003B #E4003B

 
North West England 8

#6D3177 #6D3177 #6D3177 #E4003B #E4003B #E4003B #0087DC #0087DC

 

#12B6CF #DCDCDC #DCDCDC #E4003B #E4003B #E4003B #0087DC #0087DC

 
South East England 10

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South West England1 6

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#12B6CF #DCDCDC #E4003B #0087DC #222221 #02A95B

 
West Midlands 7

#6D3177 #6D3177 #6D3177 #E4003B #E4003B #0087DC #0087DC

 

#12B6CF #12B6CF #DCDCDC #E4003B #E4003B #0087DC #0087DC

 
Yorkshire and the Humber2 6

#6D3177 #6D3177 #6D3177 #E4003B #E4003B #0087DC

 

#6D3177 #12B6CF #0087DC

#E4003B #0087DC

 
Scotland3 6

#6D3177 #E4003B #E4003B #0087DC #FDF38E #FDF38E

 

#12B6CF #E4003B

#0087DC #FDF38E #FDF38E

 
Wales 4

#6D3177 #E4003B #0087DC #005B54

 

#12B6CF #E4003B #0087DC #005B54

 
Northern Ireland 3

#326760 #D46A4C #48A5EE

 

#326760 #D46A4C #48A5EE

 

1 Includes Gibraltar, the only British overseas territory which is part of the European Union

2 One seat in Yorkshire and the Humber has been vacant since Linda McAvan (Labour) stepped down on 18 April 2019[16]

3 One seat in Scotland has been vacant since Catherine Stihler (Labour) stepped down on 31 January 2019

Electoral method

In Great Britain, candidates stand either on a party list (in a set order of priority decided by that party) – known as a closed list, or as an independent. Voters choose a list (or an independent), not an individual party candidate. The seats are then allocated proportionally to the share of votes cast for each party or individual candidate in the electoral region, using the D'Hondt method of calculation. Each new seat is given to the party (or independent candidate) with the greatest number of votes, divided by the number of those already allocated, plus one.[17]

The Northern Ireland constituency uses Single Transferable Vote (STV) to allocate its three MEPs. Voters rank the candidates sequentially, in order of their choice.

Background

Expected cancellation and contingency planning

The United Kingdom invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union on 29 March 2017 following a referendum on 23 June 2016 to leave the European Union. As a result, the country was due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019, before the European Parliament elections took place. Nonetheless, on 27 May 2018, it was reported that the UK's Electoral Commission had set aside £829,000 for its "activities relating to a European Parliamentary election in 2019". The Commission described the money as a "precautionary measure, so that we have the necessary funds to deliver our functions at a European Parliamentary election, in the unlikely event that they do go ahead".[18][19][20]

The European Parliament resolution of 7 February 2018 on the composition of the European Parliament (2017/2054(INL) – 2017/0900(NLE)) included these clauses:

  • H7 refers to the re-allocation of some UK seats following the UK withdrawal from the EU, stating: "Underlines that the seats to be vacated by the United Kingdom upon its withdrawal from the European Union will facilitate the adoption of a new allocation of seats in Parliament, which will implement the principle of degressive proportionality; further underlines that the new allocation proposed would allow for a reduction in the size of Parliament; notes that the use of only a fraction of the seats vacated by the United Kingdom is sufficient to ensure no loss of seats for any Member State".
  • H6 has a contingency for the situation that the UK does not leave the EU before the 2019 election, stating that "in case the above mentioned legal situation concerning the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union changes, the allocation of seats applied during the 2014–2019 parliamentary term should apply until the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union becomes legally effective".[21]

The European Council also drew up contingency plans allowing the UK to retain its MEPs should Brexit be postponed:[22]

However, in the event that the United Kingdom is still a Member State of the Union at the beginning of the 2019-2024 parliamentary term, the number of representatives in the European Parliament per Member State taking up office shall be the one provided for in Article 3 of the European Council Decision 2013/312/EU until the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the Union becomes legally effective.[23]

Official preparations

After Brexit was delayed beyond its initial planned date of 29 March 2019, the possibility of a sufficiently long delay so as to require the elections to take place became more apparent. The period for withdrawal under Article 50 was first extended, with the unanimous approval of the European Council, until 12 April 2019[24] — the deadline for informing the EU of the intention to hold elections.[25] By early April, the House of Commons had voted again to extend the withdrawal period, and a deadline of 31 October 2019 was agreed between the UK and the Council. The UK Government therefore ordered preparations for the election,[26] with the deadline for candidate nominations on 24 April for the South West England region and 25 April for all other regions.

Nevertheless, ratification of a withdrawal agreement by the UK and European parliaments would still permit the UK to leave before October. If this occurred before 23 May, the United Kingdom and Gibraltar will not take part in the 2019 European Parliament elections scheduled for that day.[27] On the 7 May the UK Government announced that it would not be able to obtain ratification in time to prevent the elections, although it still aimed to ratify the withdrawal agreement before October.[28]

Campaign background

The two major UK political parties, the Conservative and Labour, see the prospect of elections for the European Parliament (while the UK is due to leave the European Union) as problematic, with both having been keen to avoid this scenario.[29] The backdrop of ongoing debate around Brexit is expected to be very significant in how people vote, with the election expected to be seen by some as a "proxy referendum" on whether the country should leave the EU or not.[7] Commentators[who?] suggest that the vote share for the Conservatives and Labour, could fall, with voters moving towards a number of pro-Leave or pro-Remain parties.[citation needed] The election is seen as being significant for two new parties, the Brexit Party (supporting Brexit) and Change UK (who support the UK remaining in the EU).[30][7]

Between the 2014 and 2019 elections, there were many changes to the breakdown of UK members, due to defections, and changes in affiliation. This table shows the number of MEPs in each party:

Affiliation Members
At 2014 election At dissolution Change
Conservative 19 18 Decrease 1
Labour 20 18 Decrease 2
Brexit Party — 14 Increase 14
style="background-color:Template:Independent (politician)/meta/color"|   Independent 0 5 Increase 5
Green 3 3 Steady
UKIP 24 3 Decrease 21
Change UK — 2 Increase 2
SNP 2 2 Steady
DUP 1 1 Steady
Liberal Democrats 1 1 Steady
Plaid Cymru 1 1 Steady
Sinn Féin 1 1 Steady
SDP 0 1 Increase 1
UUP 1 1 Steady
Vacant seats 0 2 Increase 2
Total 73 73 Steady

Candidates

Nomination papers had to be submitted by 16:00 on the 19th working day before election day (25 April 2019).[31] To stand as a candidate, individuals must be aged 18 or over on the date of nomination and a British or European Union citizen, or a Commonwealth citizen possessing indefinite leave to remain or not requiring leave to enter or remain in the UK.[32]

In April 2019, Labour said it had started its process for choosing candidates.[33][34] 16 out of the 20 MEPs elected last time have applied to stand again.[2] The party's candidates were announced on 18 April and include the former Cabinet minister Andrew Adonis, the former MP Katy Clark and the national co-ordinator of campaigning group Momentum Laura Parker.[35][36]

Following the prospect of a delay to Brexit, Conservative Party MEPs were asked by their delegation leader if they would consider standing again if there were a delay that would mean the UK staying in the EU beyond the date of the next European Parliament election.[37][38] Fifteen of the party's eighteen MEPs stood again as lead candidates for their respective regions.[39]

The Brexit Party are running candidates for all seventy seats in Great Britain, with leader Nigel Farage, himself a former UKIP leader, standing in the South East England region and former Conservative candidate Annunziata Rees-Mogg standing in the East Midlands region.[30][40][41] Also standing is writer Claire Fox, formerly of the Revolutionary Communist Party, and former Conservative MP Ann Widdecombe.[42][43]

The UK Independence Party selected its three remaining MEPs as candidates, along with anti-feminist social media activist Carl Benjamin and Scottish YouTuber Mark Meechan.[44][45]

The Green Party of England and Wales and the corresponding party in Scotland began their candidate selection process in March.[46][47] The Green Party of England and Wales announced a full slate of candidates for England and Wales on 24 April 2019, including one of their three outgoing MEPs, Molly Scott Cato.[48] Also standing is former Lord Mayor of Sheffield, Magid Magid.[49] Other candidates include Catherine Rowett and Rupert Read.[50]

The Liberal Democrats announced their selected candidates for England and Wales on 17 April 2019 following a membership vote. The party's sole incumbent MEP, Catherine Bearder, was re-selected as its lead candidate for South East England, while former MEPs Chris Davies, Fiona Hall, Bill Newton Dunn and Phil Bennion were selected as lead candidates for their respective regions. Other candidates include the entrepreneur Dinesh Dhamija and the former leader of the People's Alliance of Tower Hamlets, Rabina Khan in London, and former MPs Martin Horwood and Stephen Williams in the South West. The party is also standing a full slate in Scotland.[51]

Change UK said it had had 3,700 applicants to be candidates, including former MPs from both the Labour Party and the Conservative Party.[52] Their candidates include writer Rachel Johnson (sister of Conservative MP Boris Johnson and formerly of the Liberal Democrats), former BBC journalist Gavin Esler,[42] former Conservative MPs Stephen Dorrell and Neil Carmichael, former Labour MEP Carole Tongue, former Labour MPs Roger Casale and Jon Owen Jones, former Liberal Democrat MEP Diana Wallis,[53] and former deputy Prime Minister of Poland Jacek Rostowski.[54] They are standing 70 candidates (i.e. all of Great Britain, but not Northern Ireland).[42] Two of their candidates subsequently withdrew from the ballot due to misogynistic and racist remarks.[55]

Jill Evans, Plaid Cymru's sole MEP, is standing as the party's lead candidate as part of a full slate for the Wales constituency.[56]

The Women's Equality Party are standing in the London Region,[57] with the party's co-founder Catherine Mayer as the lead candidate.[58]

Far right activist Tommy Robinson is standing as an independent for the North West England constituency.[59][60]

Further parties and independent candidates are also standing, including the English Democrats and Yorkshire Party.[61]

Patrick O'Flynn, the Social Democratic Party's sole MEP, having been elected as a UKIP candidate, stated in April 2019 that the SDP will not be standing candidates at the election.[62]

Northern Ireland

Parties with a sitting MEP European affiliation
Democratic Unionist Party NI
Sinn Féin GUE/NGL
Ulster Unionist Party ECR

Northern Ireland has a different party system to Great Britain, dominated by regional or Irish parties, and uses single transferable vote rather than the party list system.

Two of the three sitting MEPs are contesting the election, Martina Anderson for Sinn Féin and Diane Dodds for the Democratic Unionist Party.[63][64] Jim Nicholson, who has represented the Ulster Unionist Party since 1989, is retiring, with Danny Kennedy running for the party.

Three parties have selected their leaders as candidates: Colum Eastwood for the SDLP,[65] Naomi Long for the Alliance Party,[66][67] and Clare Bailey for the Green Party.[64]

UKIP nominated Robert Hill as their candidate in the region on 18 April 2019.[68] The Conservative Party has also nominated a candidate,[69] making the Conservatives and UKIP the only two parties standing candidates in all regions across the UK.

In April 2019, Jane Morrice, co-founder of the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition and a former deputy speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly, is standing as an independent on a pro-Remain platform.[70]

Campaign

There has been debate within Labour as to what their policy should be with respect to Brexit. On 20 April, the party's deputy leader Tom Watson argued they needed to back a second referendum on Brexit in order to present a clear alternative to and beat the Brexit Party, but that is not currently the party's preferred option.[71] A draft of a Labour leaflet that made no reference to a second referendum provoked a public row,[72] including more than 90 Labour MPs and MEPs writing to the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) in protest.[73] On 27 April, Labour announced that the original leaflet draft was to be redrafted to include details of the party's preparations for a general election, with a referendum if necessary to avoid what it calls a "bad Tory deal".[74]

Labour's manifesto for the elections was agreed at an NEC meeting on 30 April, re-affirming their 2018 policy that they will first seek a Brexit deal on their terms (including a Customs Union), but if that is not possible, they will seek a general election, and, if that is not possible, a second referendum. Only one vote was held at the meeting, on an amendment from the TSSA union that sought to commit Labour to a referendum on any Brexit deal, but this was rejected by a what NEC sources called a "clear" margin.[75] Retiring Labour MEP Mary Honeyball criticised this as "Not good enough"[76] and many Labour party members destroyed their membership cards in protest.[77] However, some Remain-supporting Labour MPs and Labour MPs sceptical of a second referendum welcome the decision.[76] Watson had walked out of the Shadow Cabinet meeting earlier on 30 April in protest at Shadow Cabinet members not being shown the draft manifesto.[78][79]

Labour's 9 May campaign launch stressed bringing the country together. Jeremy Corbyn talked of a "healing process" between those who supported Leave and Remain.[80]

Conservative councillors in Derbyshire are boycotting the European elections and refusing to campaign in protest over the government's failure to deliver Brexit.[81] A survey of 781 Conservative Party councillors found that 40% plan to vote for the Brexit Party.[82] Conservative MPs, including Lucy Allan, have tweeted positive comments about the Brexit Party. In response, the Conservative Party issued a warning that individuals campaigning for or endorsing other parties will be expelled from the party.[83]

UKIP argue they are "the authentic party of Brexit, the true party of Leave", to quote party leader Gerard Batten.[84] UKIP are also the only Brexit-supporting party fielding a candidate in every region of the United Kingdom, including Northern Ireland.[62] Batten has criticised the rival Brexit Party as having no policies. UKIP launched their campaign on 18 April, but there was renewed criticism surrounding the second candidate on their list, Carl Benjamin for telling Labour MP Jess Phillips "I wouldn't even rape you" and for having produced a video in which he used racist slurs.[85][86][87] Further controversy came as one of UKIP's sitting MEPs Stuart Agnew addressed a pro-apartheid club of expat South Africans in London that reportedly has links to the far-right.[88]

Nigel Farage, the Brexit Party and former UKIP leader, said that there was "no difference between the Brexit party and UKIP in terms of policy, [but] in terms of personnel, there's a vast difference", criticising UKIP's connections to the far right.[89] On 15 April 2019, three more sitting female UKIP MEPs defected to the Brexit Party, criticising UKIP's nomination of Benjamin as a candidate. In particular, Collins noted UKIP leader Gerard Batten's defence of Benjamin's "use of a non-rape threat as 'satire'" to be an especially compelling factor.[90] Two further UKIP MEPs moved to the Brexit Party on 17 April. Former Labour and Respect Party MP George Galloway also announced his support for the Brexit Party on 17 April.[91] On 23 April, Farage said that the Brexit Party was not "here just to get a process vote on 23 May – far from it, 23 May for us is just the beginning."[92] He also argued that the better the performance of the Brexit Party, the lower the chance of a second referendum on Brexit.[93]

The three main nationwide pro-European parties standing in the election, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Change UK, wish to treat this election as a "soft referendum" on Europe.[94] Commentators, such as Marina Hyde, have raised the concern of a split vote among pro-Remain parties reducing the number of pro-Remain MEPs being elected.[95][96] Vince Cable, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, proposed standing joint candidates with the Greens and Change UK on a common policy of seeking a second referendum on Brexit, but the other parties rejected the idea.[97] Change UK's co-founder Chuka Umunna confirmed the LibDem approach, but he[96] and Change UK leader Heidi Allen dismissed concerns of a split Remain vote.[98] Change UK MEP Girling said she had decided not to stand for re-election because of the concern about maximising the Remain vote.[99]

The Green Party of England and Wales is campaigning on stopping climate change, as well as their opposition to Brexit.[100]

The Liberal Democrats are running with a "stop Brexit" message,[101] seeking the support of those who wish the UK to remain in the EU.[30] At their campaign launch on 26 April, Cable lamented that they were not standing on a common platform with other parties opposed to Brexit.[101]

Change UK see the elections as an important launchpad for their new party,[7] seeking to turn the election into a "proxy referendum" on Brexit.[102] On 16 April 2019, two former Conservative MEPs, who had left the party to sit as independents within the European People's Party grouping, joined Change UK.[103] The Renew Party agreed to support Change UK – The Independent Group at the elections, and the latter are including candidates from Renew's approved list.[104] Molly Scott Cato, a sitting Green Party of England & Wales MEP, criticised Change UK as "a single-issue party with no coherent policy platform beyond opposing Brexit".[105]

The DUP are campaigning on sending a message to "get on with Brexit".[106]

Local elections were held in most of England and all of Northern Ireland on 2 May. The results saw both Conservatives and Labour losing seats, in what The Guardian called a "Brexit backlash", while the Liberal Democrats, Greens and independents made gains. The Liberal Democrats made the biggest gains, which the LibDem leader Vince Cable put down to a rejection of the Conservatives and Labour over their Brexit approaches.[107] Stephen Bush, writing in the News Statesman argued that the LibDem success in the local elections make them the most likely party for Remain voters to rally around at the European elections,[108] while The Independent described them as having the "momentum" leading into the European elections.[109] Alliance (the Liberal Democrats' sister party in Northern Ireland), other smaller parties and independents also made significant gains in the local elections in Northern Ireland.[110]

On 3 May, the day after the local elections, Tony Robinson, actor and former member of Labour's NEC, resigned from the party, in part over Labour's failure to support a second referendum.[111] On 7 May, the former Conservative deputy prime minister and sitting Conservative peer Michael Heseltine said he is considering not voting for the Conservatives because of the party's support for Brexit.[112]

Party Brexit positions

Party Brexit Position Withdrawal Agreement Position Details
bgcolor="Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color" | Labour Pro-Brexit Opposes In favour of a customs union with the EU.[113] Supports a second referendum if an early general election cannot be held.[114]
bgcolor="Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color" | Conservative Pro-Brexit Supports In favour of leaving the EU with the withdrawal agreement negotiated by Theresa May's government
bgcolor="Template:Brexit Party/meta/color" | Brexit Party Pro-Brexit Opposes In favour of "no deal" Brexit, opposes a customs union or membership of the single market.[115][116]
bgcolor="Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color"| UKIP Pro-Brexit Opposes In favour of "no deal" Brexit without a formal withdrawal agreement.[117]
bgcolor="Template:Green Party of England and Wales/meta/color" | Green (E&W) Anti-Brexit Opposes In favour of a second referendum.[118]
bgcolor="Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color" | SNP Anti-Brexit
Opposes In favour of Scotland remaining in the single market and customs union. Supports a second referendum and an independent Scotland within the EU.[119][119]
Change UK Anti-Brexit Opposes In favour of a second referendum.[42]
bgcolor="Template:Liberal Democrats (UK)/meta/color" | Liberal Democrats Anti-Brexit Opposes In favour of a second referendum.[120]
bgcolor="Template:Democratic Unionist Party/meta/color" | Democratic Unionist Pro-Brexit Opposes Concerns over a perceived risk to Northern Ireland's position in the United Kingdom due to the Irish border "backstop" issue.[121]
bgcolor="Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color" | Plaid Cymru Anti-Brexit Opposes In favour of a second referendum and potentially an independence referendum for Wales if Brexit occurs without continued membership of single market.[122][123]
bgcolor="Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color" | Sinn Féin Anti-Brexit Supports In favour of "designated special status" for Northern Ireland remaining in the EU. Supports a referendum on Northern Ireland uniting with Ireland in the event of "no deal" Brexit.[124][125][126][127]
bgcolor="Template:Ulster Unionist Party/meta/color"| Ulster Unionist Pro-Brexit Opposes Concerns based over the Northern Irish "backstop" issue.[128][129]

In terms of other parties, the SDLP opposes Brexit and supports a second referendum, but supports the withdrawal agreement if Brexit is to take place.[130][131] The Alliance Party opposes Brexit,[132][133] while the TUV support it.[134][135]

Tactical voting

On 8 May 2019, activist Gina Miller set up a website, Remain United, to encourage tactical voting in the EU parliamentary election on 23 May, in order to maximise the number of MEPs of various parties elected who support remaining in the EU.[136][137]

Opinion polls

Before the April delay, a number of polls asked respondents to imagine a hypothetical scenario where European elections take place. Number Cruncher Politics warned that opinion could move significantly if such a situation actually comes about.[138]

Great Britain

Graphical representation

Opinion polling chart for the 2019 EP elections

National poll results

Date(s) Polling organisation/client Area Sample UKIP Lab Con Lib Dem Green SNP Plaid Cymru Brexit Change UK Others Lead
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Liberal Democrats (UK)/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of England and Wales/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Change UK/meta/color; width:60px;" |
3–7 May Opinium UK 2,000 4% 26% 14% 12% 6% 5% 2% 29% 2% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 3%
1–7 May ComRes GB 4,060 2% 26% 14% 11% 6% 4% N/A 28% 8% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 2%
2 May Local elections in England and Northern Ireland
29–30 Apr YouGov/The Times GB 1,630 4% 21% 13% 10% 9% 4% 30% 9% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color; color:white;" | 9%
23–26 Apr YouGov/Hope Not Hate GB 5,412 5% 22% 13% 7% 10% 5% 28% 10% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color; color:white;" | 6%
17–25 Apr Survation UK 1,999 7% 27% 16% 8% 4% 3% 1% 27% 4% 4% Tie
18–24 Apr PanelBase/Sunday Times GB 1,149 5% 33% 20% 7% 4% 4% N/A 20% 5% 1% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; color:white;"| 13%
21–23 Apr Opinium/Observer GB 2,004 3% 28% 14% 7% 6% 4% 1% 28% 7% 4% Tie
16–17 Apr YouGov/The Times GB 1,755 6% 22% 17% 9% 10% 5% 23% 8% 0% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color; color:white;" | 1%
16 Apr ComRes/Brexit Express GB 1,061 5% 33% 18% 9% 5% 4% 0% 17% 9% 0% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; color:white;"| 15%
15–16 Apr YouGov/People's Vote GB 1,855 7% 22% 15% 9% 10% 3% 1% 27% 6% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 5%
9–12 Apr Opinium/Observer GB 2,007 13% 29% 17% 10% 6% 6% 1% 12% 4% 2% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; color:white;"| 12%
10–11 Apr YouGov/The Times GB 1,843 14% 24% 16% 8% 8% 5% 1% 15% 7% 1% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; color:white;"| 8%
5–8 Apr Hanbury Strategy/Open Europe GB 2,000 7% 38% 23% 8% 4% 4% 0% 10% 4% 1% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; color:white;"| 15%
28–30 Mar Opinium/Observer GB 2,008 18% 30% 24% 10% 8% 4% 1% – – 5% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; color:white;" | 6%
22 Mar Nigel Farage becomes leader of the new Brexit Party
12–15 Mar Opinium/Observer GB 2,008 17% 29% 28% 11% 6% 4% 1% – – 5% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; color:white;" | 1%
10–17 Jan 2019 Number Cruncher Politics/Politico GB 1,030 10% 37% 36% 8% 5% 3% 1% – – 1% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; color:white;" | 1%
22 May 2014 2014 EU election results GB 16,017,366 style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color; color:white;"|27.5% 25.4% 23.9% 6.8% 7.9%[c] 2.5% 0.7% N/A N/A 5.5% style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color; color:white;"|2.1%
UK 16,454,950 style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color; color:white;"|26.6% 24.4% 23.1% 6.6% 7.6%[d] 2.4% 0.7% N/A N/A 8.6% style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color; color:white;"|2.2%

Scotland only

Date(s) Polling organisation/client Sample SNP Lab Con UKIP Green Lib Dem Brexit Change UK Others Lead
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Scottish Green Party/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Liberal Democrats (UK)/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Change UK/meta/color; width:60px;" |
24–26 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,029 style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color; color:black;"| 40% 14% 10% 3% 7% 6% 13% 6% 0% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color; color:black;"| 26%
16–23 Apr Panelbase 1,018 style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color; color:black;"| 39% 20% 16% 2% 3% 6% 10% 4% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color; color:black;"| 19%
22 May 2014 2014 EU election results 1,343,483 style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color; color:black;"|29.0% 25.9% 17.2% 10.5% 8.1% 7.1% N/A N/A 2.2% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color; color:black;"| 3.1%

Northern Ireland

Two polls will be conducted by LucidTalk in May.[139]

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample size SF DUP UUP SDLP TUV Alliance Others Lead
class="sortable" style="background:Template:Sinn Fein/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="sortable" style="background:Template:Democratic Unionist Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="sortable" style="background:Template:Ulster Unionist Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="sortable" style="background:Template:Social Democratic and Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="sortable" style="background:Template:Traditional Unionist Voice/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="sortable" style="background:Template:Alliance Party of Northern Ireland/meta/color; width:60px;"|
16–18 May LucidTalk TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA
3–6 May LucidTalk TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA
22 May 2014 2014 EU election results 626,125 style="background:Template:Sinn Fein/meta/color; color:white;"|29.0% 20.9% 13.3% 13.0% 12.1% 7.1% 8.0% style="background:Template:Sinn Fein/meta/color; color:white;"|4.6%

European Parliament

Based on polls in the UK, organisations have started calculating the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament, if the UK participates in the European elections. (See 2019 European Parliament election for a general overview)

Date(s) Source UKIP Lab Con Lib Dem Green SNP Plaid Cymru Brexit Change UK Others Lead
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Liberal Democrats (UK)/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of England and Wales/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color; width:60px;" | class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Change UK/meta/color; width:60px;" |
7 May EuropeanElectionsStats.eu 3 16 9 6 6 2 1 21 6 3 style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 5
6 May Politico.eu 4 20 12 6 5 3 1 16 3 3 style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; color:white;"| 4
1 May EuropeanElectionsStats.eu 3 19 10 5 6 3 0 21 6 3 style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 2
22 April EuropeanElectionsStats.eu 4 21 13 6 5 3 15 6 3 style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color; color:white;"| 6
22 May 2014 2014 EU election results 24 20 19 1 3 2 1 0 0 3 4

Members of the European Parliament not standing for re-election

Brexit Party

Conservative

Change UK

Greens

Labour

Independents

SDP

SNP

UUP

See also

Footnotes

  1. ^ With respect to the current affiliation of the two MEPs who have defected to the party
  2. ^ Or, in the case of a British citizen who moved abroad before the age of 18, if a parent or guardian had been on the on Electoral Register in the UK in the 15 years before the election
  3. ^ 2014 result is the collective vote share of the Green Party of England and Wales and the Scottish Green Party.
  4. ^ 2014 result is the collective vote share of the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Green Party, and the Green Party in Northern Ireland

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