2010 Australian federal election
The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 43rd Parliament of Australia and will be held on Saturday 21 August 2010.[1] The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party led by Julia Gillard will be challenged by the opposition centre-right Liberal/National Coalition led by Tony Abbott.
Australia has compulsory voting, and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house (the House of Representatives), and single transferable vote, group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house (the Senate).
Key dates
- Announcement of election: Saturday 17 July[2]
- Prorogation of 42nd Parliament: 4.59 p.m., Monday 19 July[3]
- Dissolution of House of Representatives: 5 p.m., Monday 19 July[3]
- Issue of electoral writs: Monday 19 July[4]
- Close of rolls (if not currently on roll): 8 p.m., Monday 19 July[2]
- Close of rolls (if currently on roll and updating details): 8 p.m., Thursday 22 July[2]
- Close of nominations: 12 noon, Thursday 29 July[2]
- Declaration of nominations: 12 noon, Friday 30 July[2]
- Polling day: Saturday 21 August[2]
- Return of writs (latest date): Wednesday 27 October[2]
House of Representatives
- See also: Current pendulum for the next Australian federal election
- See also: 2007 state-by-state lower house results and maps
The Labor Party, currently led by Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and the Liberal Party, currently led by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, are the two main parties in Australia. The Liberal Party is in a coalition with the smaller National Party, currently led by Warren Truss. In the 150-member Australian House of Representatives, Labor won government with 83 seats, with the coalition on 65 seats (55 Liberal and 10 National), with two seats held by independents. The Australian Greens won 8 per cent of the 2007 vote, and the Family First Party won 2 per cent, but neither party won any seats in the lower house.
The coalition total was reduced to 64 seats when Rob Oakeshott, former state Nationals turned independent MP, won the seat of Lyne at the September 2008 Lyne by-election, resulting from the resignation of former Howard minister and Nationals leader Mark Vaile. The April 2008 Gippsland by-election, resulting from the resignation of the former Howard minister and Nationals MP Peter McGauran, saw the Nationals' Darren Chester retain the seat with a 6 per cent margin increase. The Liberals suffered a swing in the September 2008 Mayo by-election resulting from the resignation of former Howard minister and Liberal leader Alexander Downer, and came within a couple of percent of losing the seat to the Greens candidate. Liberals retained seats at the Bradfield and Higgins by-elections in December 2009. The member for Ryan, Michael Johnson, was expelled from the Liberal National Party on 20 May 2010, reducing the Coalition to 63 seats.
Redistributions
The redistribution for Western Australia has made Liberal-held Swan notionally Labor, and vastly changed Kalgoorlie and O'Connor, with the former being safer for the Liberals, and the latter becoming less safe for the Liberals. Kalgoorlie has also been renamed Durack. The redistribution has also damaged the WA Nationals' chances of a House of Representatives seat.[5][6][7] Tasmania was also redistributed but, while there are some changes to boundaries, little will change in terms of seat margins.[8][9]
New South Wales lost a seat to Queensland for the second election in a row. The Labor Party suggested the abolition of the marginal Liberal seat of Macarthur, while the Liberal Party suggested that Liberal-held Hume and National-held Riverina be merged to create a new seat called "Bradman" (in honour of Sir Donald Bradman). The National Party suggested the abolition of Labor-held Banks.[10] The draft New South Wales redistribution, published in August 2009, proposed that Reid be abolished and that Lowe be renamed "McMahon" in honour of former Prime Minister Sir William McMahon. In response to widespread criticism of the abolition of the name "Reid", the finalised redistribution, published in October 2009, instead had Lowe renamed "Reid" and Prospect replaced with McMahon. Boundary changes also resulted in the Liberal seats of Macarthur, Greenway and Gilmore becoming notionally Labor-held, with major changes to other seats, including Calare, Parkes and Macquarie.[11]
In Queensland, the seat of Wright has been created as a Liberal-held seat based on the Gold Coast hinterland. The changes see the status of Blair change from marginal Labor to a safe Labor seat. The changes also see the status of marginal Liberal seats Dickson and Herbert change to marginal Labor seats.[12]
A redistribution for Victoria commenced in 2010 in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution, but was not finalised before the election was called.[13]
Senate
In the 76-member Australian Senate, from July 2008, the Labor and Liberal parties hold 32 seats each. The balance of power rests with the crossbench, consisting of:
- 5 National Party (including one CLP)
- 5 Australian Greens
- 1 Family First, Steve Fielding
- 1 independent, Nick Xenophon
For a majority, the government requires an additional seven votes from non-Labor Senators. If the Liberal Party chooses to vote with the Labor Party on legislation, support from the crossbench will not be required.
Senators facing re-election
(Listed in order of election for the six states)[14]
| NSW | Vic | Qld | WA | SA | Tas | ACT | NT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Heffernan (Lib) Steve Hutchins (ALP) Concetta F.-Wells (Lib) John Faulkner (ALP) Fiona Nash (Nat) Michael Forshaw (ALP) |
Michael Ronaldson (Lib) Kim Carr (ALP) Julian McGauran (Lib) Stephen Conroy (ALP) Judith Troeth (Lib) Steve Fielding (FFP) |
Brett Mason (Lib) Jan McLucas (ALP) George Brandis (Lib) Joe Ludwig (ALP) Barnaby Joyce (Nat) Russell Trood (Lib) |
Chris Back (Lib) Chris Evans (ALP) Mathias Cormann (Lib) Glenn Sterle (ALP) Judith Adams (Lib) Rachel Siewert (Grn) |
Nick Minchin (Lib) Anne McEwen (ALP) Mary Jo Fisher (Lib) Annette Hurley (ALP) Alan Ferguson (Lib) Dana Wortley (ALP) |
Eric Abetz (Lib) Kerry O'Brien (ALP) Guy Barnett (Lib) Helen Polley (ALP) Stephen Parry (Lib) Christine Milne (Grn) |
Gary Humphries (Lib) Kate Lundy (ALP) |
Trish Crossin (ALP) Nigel Scullion (CLP) |
MPs and Senators losing party endorsement
- Belinda Neal (Labor) — Robertson, lost preselection 6 March 2010.[15][16][17][18]
- Michael Johnson (Liberal) — Ryan, expelled by the Liberal National Party state executive on 20 May 2010 after questions had been raised over his use of parliamentary staff to receive a $12 million commission from a Chinese coal company. He now sits in parliament as an Independent and has announced he will be standing at the next election.
- Kerry O'Brien (Labor) — Senator for Tasmania, lost preselection 9 April 2010.[19]
- Pat Farmer (Liberal) — Macarthur, lost preselection 30 October 2009; on 15 February 2010 he indicated he would not be recontesting Macarthur.[20]
Retiring MPs and Senators
Members
Where a Member of the House of Representatives does not renominate to contest the election, their term will end at the dissolution of the parliament. Members who have indicated their intention to retire are:
Labor
- James Bidgood — Dawson, announced retirement 5 February 2010
- Jodie Campbell — Bass, announced retirement 30 October 2009
- Bob Debus — Macquarie, announced retirement 5 June 2009
- Annette Ellis — Canberra, announced retirement 22 January 2010
- Jennie George — Throsby, announced retirement 19 November 2009
- Julia Irwin — Fowler, announced retirement 14 September 2009
- Duncan Kerr — Denison, announced retirement 10 September 2009
- Bob McMullan — Fraser, announced retirement 19 January 2010
- Roger Price — Chifley, announced retirement 19 March 2010
- Lindsay Tanner — Melbourne, announced retirement 24 June 2010
Liberal
- Fran Bailey — McEwen, announced retirement 7 October 2009
- Pat Farmer — Macarthur – lost preselection 30 October 2009; he indicated on 15 February 2010 that he would not be recontesting Macarthur[20]
- Petro Georgiou — Kooyong, announced retirement 23 November 2008
- David Hawker — Wannon, announced retirement 1 June 2009
- Peter Lindsay — Herbert, announced retirement 27 January 2010
- Margaret May — McPherson, announced retirement 14 August 2009
- Chris Pearce — Aston, announced retirement 23 June 2009
- Danna Vale — Hughes, announced retirement 4 August 2009
Note: Malcolm Turnbull (Wentworth) announced his retirement on 6 April 2010, but on 1 May announced that he would be contesting the election.[21]
National
Senators
Where a Senator does not renominate to contest the election, their term will end on 30 June 2011. Senators who will not be contesting this election are:
Labor
- Senator Michael Forshaw – New South Wales, announced retirement 1 March 2010
- Senator Annette Hurley – South Australia, announced retirement 1 July 2010
Liberal
- Senator Alan Ferguson – South Australia, announced retirement 4 March 2010
- Senator Nick Minchin – South Australia, announced retirement 24 March 2010
- Senator Judith Troeth – Victoria, announced retirement 14 January 2009
Polling
Two party preferred
Newspoll Leader ratings
| Date | Labor Gillard |
Liberal Abbott |
|---|---|---|
| 16–18 Jul 2010 | 57% | 27% |
| 25–27 Jun 2010 | 53% | 29% |
| 18–20 Jun 2010 | 46%4 | 37% |
| 28–30 May 2010 | 49%4 | 33% |
| 14–16 May 2010 | 49%4 | 33% |
| 30 Apr-2 May 2010 | 50%4 | 32% |
| 16–18 Apr 2010 | 56%4 | 29% |
| 26–28 Mar 2010 | 59%4 | 27% |
| 12–14 Mar 2010 | 55%4 | 30% |
| 26–28 Feb 2010 | 55%4 | 30% |
| 12–14 Feb 2010 | 55%4 | 27% |
| 29–31 Jan 2010 | 58%4 | 26% |
| 15–17 Jan 2010 | 57%4 | 25% |
| 4–6 Dec 2009 | 60%4 | 23% |
| 27–29 Nov 2009 | 65%4 | 14%3 |
| 13–15 Nov 2009 | 63%4 | 22%3 |
| 30 Oct-1 Nov 2009 | 63%4 | 19%3 |
| 16–18 Oct 2009 | 65%4 | 19%3 |
| 28 Sep-1 Oct 2009 | 67%4 | 18%3 |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1Howard 2Nelson 3Turnbull 4Rudd | ||
| Gillard | Abbott | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied |
| 16–18 Jul 2010 | 48% | 29% | 36% | 51% |
| 25–27 Jun 2010 | N/A (new) | N/A (new) | 42% | 41% |
| 18–20 Jun 2010 | 36%4 | 55%4 | 38% | 49% |
| 28–30 May 2010 | 36%4 | 54%4 | 37% | 49% |
| 14–16 May 2010 | 39%4 | 51%4 | 42% | 45% |
| 30 Apr-2 May 2010 | 39%4 | 50%4 | 45% | 43% |
| 16–18 Apr 2010 | 50%4 | 41%4 | 46% | 40% |
| 26–28 Mar 2010 | 51%4 | 39%4 | 44% | 43% |
| 12–14 Mar 2010 | 48%4 | 41%4 | 47% | 38% |
| 26–28 Feb 2010 | 51%4 | 40%4 | 48% | 38% |
| 12–14 Feb 2010 | 50%4 | 40%4 | 44% | 37% |
| 29–31 Jan 2010 | 50%4 | 38%4 | 41% | 39% |
| 15–17 Jan 2010 | 52%4 | 34%4 | 40% | 35% |
| 4–6 Dec 2009 | 58%4 | 32%4 | N/A (new) | N/A (new) |
| 27–29 Nov 2009 | 56%4 | 34%4 | 36%3 | 50%3 |
| 13–15 Nov 2009 | 56%4 | 34%4 | 34%3 | 50%3 |
| 30 Oct-1 Nov 2009 | 59%4 | 32%4 | 32%3 | 51%3 |
| 16–18 Oct 2009 | 63%4 | 28%4 | 32%3 | 54%3 |
| 28 Sep-1 Oct 2009 | 67%4 | 21%4 | 33%3 | 48%3 |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted". 3Turnbull 4Rudd | ||||
The campaign
See also
- Australian federal election, 2007
- Divisions of the Australian House of Representatives
- List of political parties in Australia
References
- ^ "Gillard seeks mandate to take Australia forward: SMH 17 July 2010". Smh.com.au. 2010-06-13. Retrieved 2010-07-17.
- ^ a b c d e f g 8pm Monday is the deadline to get on the electoral roll for the 2010 federal election, Australian Electoral Commission, 17 July 2010.
- ^ a b Special Gazette No. S136, Commonwealth of Australia, 19 July 2010.
- ^ Special Gazette No. S139, Commonwealth of Australia, 20 July 2010.
- ^ "WA redistributed: Poll Bludger 1/8/2008". Pollbludger.com. 2008-08-01. Retrieved 2010-05-02.
- ^ "New Federal Boundaries for Western Australia: Antony Green ABC 1/8/2008". Blogs.abc.net.au. 2008-08-01. Retrieved 2010-05-02.
- ^ "Proposed Redistribution (including maps) of Western Australia 2007–08". AEC. 2008-08-01. Retrieved 2010-05-02.
- ^ "Tasmania redistributed – The Poll Bludger 22/08/2008". Blogs.crikey.com.au. 2008-08-22. Retrieved 2010-05-02.
- ^ "Federal Redistribution in Tasmania: Antony Green ABC 13/08/2008". Blogs.abc.net.au. 2008-08-13. Retrieved 2010-05-02.
- ^ "Public Suggestions for the New South Wales Redistribution: Australian Electoral Commission". Aec.gov.au. 2009-07-20. Retrieved 2010-05-02.
- ^ "The Proposed Redistribution of New South Wales into Electoral Divisions: Report of the Redistribution Committee" (PDF). Retrieved 2010-05-02.
- ^ "Augmented Electoral Commission decides boundaries and names for Federal Electoral Divisions in QLD". Aec.gov.au. 2009-10-16. Retrieved 2010-05-02.
- ^ "Redistribution of Federal Electoral Boundaries – Victorian Redistribution 2010". Aec.gov.au. 2010-04-19. Retrieved 2010-05-02.
- ^ Dates of Expiry of Senators' Terms of Service – Australian Senate . Retrieved 2007-12-01.
- ^ "Belinda Neal loses preselection vote". Smh.com.au. 2010-03-06. Retrieved 2010-06-23.
- ^ "Neal loses preselection challenge – ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 2010-06-23.
- ^ Christian Kerr (2010-03-06). "Belinda Neal loses pre-selection". The Australian. Retrieved 2010-06-23.
- ^ [1][dead link]
- ^ Senator blames Labor's left faction for preselection failure, ABC News, 10 April 2010
- ^ a b Ward, Matthew. "Macarthur Chronicle, 15 February 2010". Macarthur-chronicle-camden.whereilive.com.au. Retrieved 2010-05-02.
- ^ "ABC News, 1 May 2010". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 2010-05-02.
