Michigan gubernatorial election, 2010

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Michigan gubernatorial election, 2010
Michigan
2006 ←
November 2, 2010 → 2014

Turnout 3,226,088
  Rick Snyder.jpg Virg-2.jpg
Nominee Rick Snyder Virg Bernero
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,874,834 1,287,320
Percentage 58.1% 39.9%

Michigan Gubernatorial Election 2010.svg

County results

Governor before election

Jennifer Granholm
Democratic

Elected Governor

Rick Snyder
Republican

The Michigan gubernatorial election of 2010 was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm was prohibited by the state's Constitution from seeking a third term. This resulted in a large pool of candidates which was whittled down, when the May 11 filing deadline passed, to two Democrats and five Republicans.[1] Both the Cook Political Report and the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report rated the election as leaning Republican.[2][3]

The Republican primary race was highly competitive; both local and national polling reported Congressman Peter Hoekstra, state Attorney General Mike Cox, and businessman Rick Snyder as being front-runners for the Republican Party nomination.[4][5][6][7] The Democratic front-runner when the 2009 polls were conducted, Lieutenant Governor John D. Cherry, withdrew from the race in January 2010.[8][9] The final polls just days before the primary election showed that, while Lansing mayor Virg Bernero was in the lead, over a quarter of those polled were still undecided.[10] The deadline for candidates to file nominating petitions for the August 3 state primary was 4:00 PM on May 11, 2010.[1][11]

A total of 1,575,167 registered voters voted in the primaries, with 66.4% of them voting in the Republican primary.[12] Analysts believe a large portion of Democrats crossed party lines to vote for Snyder, whose ad campaign targeted bipartisan and independent support.[13] In Michigan, voters may vote in either primary regardless of their political affiliation, but can only vote for one party. Ballots with split tickets are not counted in partisan races. Both races came in more disparate than predicted. Snyder won with a near 10-point lead over closest rival Pete Hoekstra, and Bernero won with an even larger 17-point lead over early favorite state house speaker Andy Dillon. Both nominees portrayed themselves as political outsiders.[14] On August 25, Snyder appointed State Representative Brian Calley as his running mate.[15] On August 28, Bernero appointed Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence as his running mate.[16]

Snyder won a decisive victory over Bernero in the general election, winning by nearly 20 percentage points.

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates administered John D. Cherry Andy Dillon George Perles John Freeman Alma Wheeler Smith Dan Kildee Virg Bernero
EPIC-MRA July 28, 2010 -- 32% -- -- -- -- 40%
EPIC-MRA June 12–15, 2010 -- 34% -- -- -- -- 24%
Public Policy Polling May 25–27, 2010 -- 23% -- -- -- -- 26%
EPIC-MRA May 22–26, 2010 -- 29% -- -- -- -- 23%
Rasmussen Reports April 22, 2010 -- 13% -- -- 9% -- 12%
Rasmussen Reports March 24, 2010 -- 12% -- -- 10% -- 8%
Denno-Noor Research March 3–5, 2010 -- 13% -- -- 6% 6% 11%
EPIC-MRA February 22–25, 2010 -- 17% -- -- 7% 12% 8%
Detroit Free Press November 12–17, 2009 20% 6% 6% 2% 2% -- --
EPIC-MRA October 11–15, 2009 33% -- 3% 2% 5% -- --
Marketing Resource Group September 12–20, 2009 40% -- -- 9% 8% -- --

Results[edit]

Primary election results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Virg Bernero 309,235 58.6%
Democratic Andy Dillon 218,884 41.4%
Totals 527,202 100%

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates administered Mike Cox Peter Hoekstra Mike Bouchard Rick Snyder Tom George David Kniffen
EPIC-MRA July 29, 2010 24% 23% 10% 26% 1% --
Detroit News 4/WDIV July 18, 2010 26.4% 25.6% 11.6% 20.2% 1.8% --
EPIC-MRA June 12–15, 2010 26% 24% 16% 20% 2% --
Public Policy Polling May 25–27, 2010 17% 19% 15% 20% 9% --
EPIC-MRA May 22–26, 2010 18% 30% 16% 17% 2% --
Rasmussen Reports April 22, 2010 13% 28% 9% 14% -- --
Rasmussen Reports March 30, 2010 13% 27% 6% 18% -- --
Marketing Research Group March 10–15, 2010 21% 21% 10% 20% 1% -
Denno-Noor Research March 3–5, 2010 12% 28% 8% 18% 2% --
EPIC-MRA February 22–25, 2010 21% 27% 10% 12% 1% --
Mitchell Research & Communications November 17–19, 2009 27% 24% 12% 3% 3% --
Detroit Free Press November 12–17, 2009 15% 21% 13% 5% 3% --
EPIC-MRA October 11–15, 2009 28% 29% -- 14% 3% 2%
Marketing Resource Group September 12–20, 2009 27% 23% 15% -- -- --
Marketing Resource Group March 4–10, 2009 15% 17% -- -- -- --

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Snyder 381,327 36.4%
Republican Pete Hoekstra 280,976 26.8%
Republican Mike Cox 240,409 23.0%
Republican Mike Bouchard 127,350 12.2%
Republican Tom George 16,986 1.6%
Totals 1,044,925 100%

Other parties[edit]

Based on past election performance, the Libertarian Party of Michigan, Green Party of Michigan, and the U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan (affiliated with the Constitution Party) have automatic ballot access for the general election, but by state law they must nominate candidates through party conventions rather than primary elections. The Natural Law Party also has automatic ballot access in Michigan, but chose not to run a candidate for Governor in 2010.

Libertarian Party candidates[edit]

The Libertarian Party nominee was Kenneth Proctor.[35] The nomination was won at the Michigan Libertarian Convention held in Okemos, Michigan on Saturday, May 22, in accordance with Michigan state law. He beat out Bhagwan Dashairya, who had been the 2006 U.S. Taxpayers Party nominee for governor. The delegates ended up selecting Dashairya as the Libertarian nominee for U.S. Congress in District 8.

Proctor's running mate was Dr. Erwin Haas, MD of Grand Rapids. Hass received the Lt. Governor nomination unanimously.

Green Party candidates[edit]

The Green Party of Michigan held their statewide nominating convention July 31 and August 1 in Lansing, Michigan, and nominated Harley Mikkelson for Governor and Lynn Meadows for Lieutenant Governor.[36]

U.S. Taxpayers Party candidates[edit]

The 2010 U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan convention was held on June 26 in East Lansing, Michigan. In a nearly unanimous vote, Stacey Mathia and Chris Levels were formally nominated as candidates of the U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan for the offices of Governor and Lt. Governor.

According to Stacey Mathia's official press release, "The Convention applauded Mathia's agenda to institute Law-Abiding Constitutional Government and State Sovereignty in order to free the People of Michigan from the political oppression of big government operating outside of its authority."[37]

The press release also stated, "Chris Levels, is currently well known as a radio talk show host on WSNL in the Flint, Michigan area. His last minute nomination speech will be available on Mathia’s website. The USTPM Convention gave him a standing applause."

General election[edit]

Debates[edit]

On August 12, it was reported that Virg Bernero accepted invitations to three debates. The first debate would be held September 21 and sponsored by WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids. The second debate would be held October 7 and be broadcast on 55 radio and TV stations throughout the state. The third debate would be held October 21 and would be sponsored by WXYZ-TV, WWJ (AM) and Crain's Detroit Business.[38] Then in early September, Bernero offered Snyder a deal of eight debates. Snyder proposed a counter-offer of three debates, which Bernero refused.[39] A Detroit Free Press editorial was critical of Snyder for not agreeing to debates.[40] Bernero called Snyder a wimp for not agreeing to debate him.[41] An impromptu debate developed after Bernero crashed a town hall meeting Snyder was hosting in Westland on September 13.[42] The two sides agreed to an hour-long televised debate, broadcast on October 10 from the studios of WTVS in Wixom.[43] A group of Detroit clergy have invited the two major party candidates to a debate there on October 21. Only Bernero accepted the invitation.[44]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates administered Virg Bernero (D) Rick Snyder (R)
Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 October 25–26, 2010 35% 53%
Free Press/WXYZ-TV Channel 7 October 23–26, 2010 37% 55%
Rossman Group/Team TelCom October 18, 2010 36% 50%
Rasmussen Reports October 17, 2010 34% 54%
Mitchell Research October 10, 2010 29% 49%
EPIC-MRA October 3–7, 2010 29% 49%
Rasmussen Reports September 20, 2010 38% 51%
Public Policy Polling September 17–19, 2010 31% 52%
Mitchell Research August 25–29, 2010 26% 53%
Detroit News August 9–10, 2010 32% 51%
Rasmussen Reports August 4, 2010 37% 49%
Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2010 30% 42%
Public Policy Polling May 25–27, 2010 28% 44%
EPIC-MRA May 22–26, 2010 28% 51%
EPIC-MRA March 28–31, 2010 29% 42%
Michigan Research Group March 10–15, 2010 26% 42%

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Likely R[45] October 29, 2010
Rothenberg Safe R[46] October 28, 2010
Swing State Project Safe R[citation needed]
RealClearPolitics Solid R[47] October 29, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R[48] October 28, 2010
Rasmussen Reports Safe R[48] October 20, 2010
CQ Politics Lean R[49] October 29, 2010

Results[edit]

Michigan gubernatorial election, 2010[50]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Rick Snyder 1,874,834 58.11% +15.81%
Democratic Virg Bernero 1,287,320 39.90% -16.46%
Libertarian Ken Proctor 22,390 0.69% +0.08%
Constitution Stacey Mathia 20,818 0.65% +0.46%
Green Harley Mikkelson 20,699 0.64% +0.12%
Write-ins 27 0.00% 0.00%
Majority 587,514 18.21% +4.15%
Turnout 3,226,088 -15.13%
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b "2010 Official Michigan Primary Candidate Listing". Miboecfr.nictusa.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  2. ^ http://www.detnews.com/article/20100105/POLITICS02/1050391/Lt.-Gov.-Cherry-won-t-run-for-governor
  3. ^ "The Cook Political Report | The insider's choice for election analysis". Cookpolitical.com. 2010-08-17. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  4. ^ "Election 2010: Michigan Governor - Rasmussen Reports". Rasmussenreports.com. 2010-08-04. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  5. ^ 1871media.com - info@1871media.com. "Poll: Cox leads Michigan governor's race". LegalNewsline. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  6. ^ "Republicans Show Startling Strength in Race for Michigan Governor - Michael Barone". usnews.com. 2009-03-19. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  7. ^ http://www.freep.com/article/20100729/NEWS15/100729056/1319/Snyder-holds-edge-in-tight-GOP-governors-race
  8. ^ [1][dead link]
  9. ^ a b Press, Associated (2010-01-05). "John Cherry tells AP he’s out of MI race". BostonHerald.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  10. ^ "Poll Bernero opens 8 point lead | WOOD TV8". Woodtv.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  11. ^ "2010 Important Dates Filing Deadline" (PDF). Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  12. ^ "2010 Unofficial Michigan Primary Election Results - Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position". Miboecfr.nictusa.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  13. ^ Berr, Jonathan (2010-08-17). "Michigan Governor's Race: Will Voters Pick Tough Nerd Rick Snyder or Angry Mayor Virg Bernero?". DailyFinance. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  14. ^ "Rick Snyder, Virg Bernero will test voters' opinions on organized labor, outsourcing". AnnArbor.com. 2010-08-05. Retrieved 2010-08-12. One thing Snyder and Bernero have in common: They’re both portraying themselves as outsiders who can solve the political gridlock seizing the state legislature...It’s clear voters are tired of politics as usual. 
  15. ^ http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2010/08/its_a_go_rick_snyder_names_bri.html
  16. ^ http://www.freep.com/article/20100828/NEWS15/100828017/1318/Lawrence-to-back-up-Bernero-on-Democratic-ticket
  17. ^ [2][dead link]
  18. ^ "Speaker of the House Andy Dillon declares Democratic run for governor". MLive.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  19. ^ [3][dead link]
  20. ^ State Sen. Hansen Clarke drops out of governor's race, Mark Hornbeck / Detroit News Lansing Bureau, published January 15, 2010
  21. ^ Freeman out of gov's race, Bowman may be interested, Mark Hornbeck / Detroit News Lansing Bureau, published January 12, 2010
  22. ^ "Dan Kildee announces his withdrawal from race for Michigan governor". MLive.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  23. ^ Bell, Dawson (2010-05-10). "Rep. Wheeler Smith abandons bid for governor". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved 2010-05-10. 
  24. ^ a b "Michigan Primary results". 2010 Unofficial Michigan Primary Election Results. August 4, 2010. Retrieved August 10, 2010. 
  25. ^ "Elections : Elections News and Photos". chicagotribune.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  26. ^ http://www.detnews.com/article/20090603/POLITICS02/906030408/1361/Bouchard-enters-race-for-governor
  27. ^ http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081107/POLITICS/811070368
  28. ^ AP File Photo. "Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox will make official his campaign to seek governor's seat". MLive.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  29. ^ "Hoekstra To Run For Governor - Detroit Local News Story - WDIV Detroit". Clickondetroit.com. 2009-03-30. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  30. ^ "Michigan Committee Statement of Organization". Miboecfr.nictusa.com. Retrieved 2010-01-18. 
  31. ^ Crumm, Charles (2010-05-09). "Kniffen withdraws from GOP race for governor". The Oakland Press. Retrieved 2010-08-12. 
  32. ^ Mack, Julie (2010-07-03). "Terri Lynn Land says she, Mike Bouchard looking to 'fix Michigan'". Kalamazoo News. Retrieved 2010-08-12. 
  33. ^ "Huron Daily Tribune > Archives > News > Local News > Rujan running for governor". Michigansthumb.com. 2009-07-03. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  34. ^ "Michigan 2010 Midterm Election". Thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  35. ^ "candidates". Mi.lp.org. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  36. ^ "the Green Party of Michigan's home on the web". Migreens.Org. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  37. ^ http://www.staceymathia2010.com/uploads/33643459-Stacey-Mathia-and-Chris-Levels-Formally-Nominated.pdf[dead link]
  38. ^ "Bernero accepts 3 debate invites, Snyder yet to commit | detnews.com | The Detroit News". detnews.com. 2010-08-12. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  39. ^ "Bernero Snyder spar over debates - The Detroit News". detnews.com. 2010-09-14. Retrieved 2010-09-14. [dead link]
  40. ^ http://www.freep.com/article/20100912/OPINION01/100911027/Not-debating-isn-t-an-option
  41. ^ http://www.annarbor.com/news/not-only-is-rick-snyder-a-nerd-hes-also-a-wimp-says-virg-bernero/
  42. ^ http://www.freep.com/article/20100913/NEWS15/100913063/1318/Debate-held-after-Bernero-crashes-Snyders-meeting
  43. ^ http://wwj.cbslocal.com/2010/09/22/mich-gov-hopefuls-agree-to-debate/
  44. ^ http://wwj.cbslocal.com/2010/10/14/detroit-clergy-demand-gubernatorial-debate/
  45. ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 29, 2010. 
  46. ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 29, 2010. 
  47. ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 29, 2010. 
  48. ^ a b "2010 Governor Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 29, 2010. 
  49. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Retrieved October 29, 2010. 
  50. ^ http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/10GEN/02000000.html

External links[edit]

Debates
Official campaign sites