John McCain 2008 presidential campaign

John McCain for President 2008
File:JohnMcCain08.gif
Campaign	U.S. presidential election, 2008
Candidate	John McCain U.S. Senator 1987–present
Affiliation	Republican Party
Status	Announced April 25, 2007 Presumptive nominee March 4, 2008
Headquarters	Phoenix, Arizona
Key people	Richard H. Davis (Manager) Robert Mosbacher (General Chairman) Phil Gramm (co-chairman) Tom Loeffler (co-chairman) Tim Pawlenty (co-chairman)
Receipts	US$41.1 (2007-12-31)
Slogan	Best Prepared to Lead from Day One; Experienced Leadership, Bold Solutions.
Website
www.johnmccain.com

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John McCain, the senior American United States Senator from Arizona, staged his second candidacy for the presidency of the United States for the 2008 presidential election. His candidacy was in the works for a number of years, was informally announced on February 28, 2007 and was then formally announced on April 25, 2007. He emphasized that "America should never undertake a war unless we are prepared to do everything necessary to succeed."

Should McCain win in 2008, he would be the oldest person to assume the Presidency in history at initial ascension to office, being 72 years old and surpassing Ronald Reagan, who was 69 years old at his inauguration following the 1980 election. He has dismissed concerns about his age and past health concerns (malignant melanoma in 2000), stating in 2005 that his health was "excellent." In the event of his victory in 2008, he would also become the first President of the United States not to be born within the United States (he was born in Panama within the Panama Canal Zone), and the first sitting U.S. Senator since John F. Kennedy to win the presidency. He would also be the first president from Arizona.

McCain began the campaign as the nominal frontrunner among Republicans, with a strategy of appearing as the establishment, inevitable candidate; towards this end he made substantial overtures towards elements of the Republican base that had resisted his 2000 insurgency campaign. However, he soon fell behind in polls and fundraising; by July 2007 his campaign was forced to restructure its size and operations. The tide of Republican sentiment against immigration legislation he has sponsored also led to the erosion of his lead.

At the tail end of 2007, however, McCain began a resurgence, which was capped by his January 2008 wins in the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida primaries. This made him the front-runner for the Republican nomination. On Super Tuesday, McCain won both the majority of states and delegates in the Republican primaries, giving him a commanding lead toward the Republican nomination. By February 8, 2008, Rasmussen Reports gave McCain a 95.4 percent likelihood of winning the nomination. McCain clinched a majority of the delegates and became the presumptive Republican nominee with wins in the Ohio primary, Texas primary, and in Vermont and Rhode Island on March 4. The following day, President George W. Bush endorsed McCain at the White House.

Leading up to the announcement

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)

McCain's oft-cited strengths as a potential presidential candidate in 2008 included national name recognition, sponsorship of major lobbying and campaign finance reform initiatives and leadership in exposing the Abramoff scandal.

He is well-known for his military service (including years as a tortured POW) and competing in the 2000 presidential campaign, when he won the New Hampshire primary. McCain also impressed many Republicans with his strong support for President Bush's re-election campaign in 2004, and his role in the confirmation of many of Bush's judicial nominees. A Time magazine poll dated January 2007 showed McCain deadlocked with possible Democratic opponent Hillary Rodham Clinton at 46%; in the same poll McCain trailed Democrat Barack Obama 41% to 48%. An earlier Time Magazine poll indicated that more Americans were familiar with McCain than any of the other frontrunners, including Republican candidate and former Mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani, and Democratic hopeful Senator Barack Obama. During the 2006 election cycle, McCain attended 346 events and raised more than $10.5 million on behalf of Republican candidates. He also donated nearly $1.5 million to federal, state and county parties.

In May 2006, McCain gave the commencement address at Jerry Falwell's Liberty University. During his 2000 presidential bid, McCain had called Falwell an "agent of intolerance." With significant coverage during the campaign, McCain said that he would never back down from his earlier statement. His later appearance at Liberty University prompted questions about the McCain-Falwell relationship and a possible presidential run in 2008. McCain backtracked and stated that Falwell is no longer as divisive and the two have discussed their shared values. McCain delivered a similar address at The New School commencement in Madison Square Garden. McCain was booed, and several students and professors turned their backs or waved fliers reading "McCain does not speak for me." McCain's speech mentioned his unwavering support for the Iraq War and focused on hearing opposing viewpoints, listening to each other, and the relevance of opposition in a democracy. At the recent inauguration of Alabama governor Bob Riley, McCain mentioned the incumbent as a possible running mate in the 2008 election.

Thusly, McCain began the race as the presumptive frontrunner and the most experienced candidate from either major party

Announcement

John McCain officially announcing his 2008 run for President in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, April 25, 2007.

McCain informally announced his candidacy on the Wednesday, February 28, 2007, telecast of the Late Show With David Letterman.

He then announced his formal candidacy for the presidency of the United States and in turn, his intention to seek the nomination of the Republican Party for the 2008 presidential election, shortly after noon in Prescott Park on the waterfront of Portsmouth, New Hampshire on Wednesday, April 25, 2007. He then visited Manchester, New Hampshire, on the same day before starting a planned three day campaign rally in South Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and Arizona.

Campaign staff and policy team

Rick Davis is the current campaign manager. He was previously the campaign's chief executive and changed position when John Weaver, McCain's chief aide, and Terry Nelson, his campaign manager, resigned on July 11, 2007. Davis was campaign manager during McCain's 2000 presidential campaign, when Weaver had been McCain's chief campaign strategist. Other top staffers include long-time political strategist Charlie Black who worked for Reagan and both Bushes, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, McCain's former chief of staff Mark Salter, and previous George Bush re-election strategists Mark McKinnon and Steve Schmidt. Jill Hazelbaker is the campaign's chief spokeswoman. McCain's press secretary is Melissa Shuffield.

Randy Scheunemann, a board member of the Project for the New American Century, was hired as McCain's foreign-policy aide. Neoconservative pundit Bill Kristol, currently an op-ed columnist for The New York Times, serves as a foreign policy advisor.

Political positions

Main article: Political positions of John McCain

Campaign developments 2007

Initial stages

Senator John McCain interviewed at Fort Sam Houston, Texas prior to the ribbon cutting ceremony of The Center for the Intrepid, a $50 million physical rehabilitation facility designed for servicemembers wounded in Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom. January 29, 2007.

By a few weeks prior to making his announcement on Letterman, McCain was already beginning to trail behind former Mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani in the polls.

In March 2007, with considerable press attention and in hopes of reigniting his efforts, McCain brought back the "Straight Talk Express" campaign bus that he had used to much positive effect in his outsider run in 2000. Like many candidates, McCain has taken to the internet in order to help boost his campaign; appealing to younger audiences by creating Facebook and MySpace pages, along with an account on Youtube.

Claims about Iraq safety

McCain supported the Iraq War troop surge of 2007 proposed by President George W. Bush. On March 28, 2007, McCain said that, "General Petraeus goes out [in Baghdad] almost every day in an unarmed humvee". On March 29, CNN's John Roberts reported, "I checked with General Petraeus’s people overnight and they said he never goes out in anything less than an up-armored humvee." On the same day, McCain also said that, "There are neighborhoods in Baghdad where you and I could walk through those neighborhoods, today... The US is beginning to succeed in Iraq." On the same day, retired U.S. Army General Barry McCaffrey issued a report saying, “... no Iraqi government official, coalition soldier, diplomat, reporter could walk the streets of Baghdad without heavily armed protection”.

On April 1, 2007, McCain and other lawmakers visited a Baghdad market and claimed that "things are better and there are encouraging signs". However, the visit was accompanied by enormous security measures, as McCain himself wore a bullet-proof vest, and was surrounded by more than 100 troops and escorted by attack helicopters. The day after McCain's visit, 21 workers and children from the market were killed in a suicide bombing.

Three policy speeches

In April 2007, McCain delivered three policy speeches. These focused on Iraq, the U.S. Economy, and on Energy.

McCain's April 11 speech on Iraq was delivered to the Virginia Military Institute (VMI) Corps of Cadets after his return from Iraq. His speech centered on his support for a new strategy in Iraq and his opposition to Democratic efforts towards troop withdrawal.The U.S. Senator repeated his criticism of the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq War on April 29, 2007 in Elko, Nevada, and stated that Donald Rumsfeld will be remembered as "one the worst secretaries of defense in history".

On April 16, McCain gave a speech on the U.S. Economy to the Economic Club of Memphis. In his speech, McCain criticized wasteful spending and reiterated his promise to make any sponsors of pork or earmarks "famous" when he becomes President.

The Senator's speech on Energy policy was given on April 23 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) at the Ronald Reagan Building & International Trade Center in Washington D.C. His speech connected energy independence with national security, climate change, and the environment. McCain proposed increasing ethanol imports, moving from exploration to production of plug-in electric vehicles, and better harnessing nuclear power much as Europe has managed to do.

Debates

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential debates, 2008

McCain participated in 17 of the 2008 Republican Presidential Candidates Debates from May 2007 to February 2008.

Missed votes in Senate

In May 2007, it was reported that McCain had missed 42 consecutive votes (five straight weeks) in the Senate while he was conducting his presidential campaign. From March to May, McCain only attended three floor votes in the Senate. According to Washington Post statistics, McCain missed more votes than any Senator with the exception of Tim Johnson, who has not returned to the Senate after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December 2006. McCain has missed 50.7% of votes of the 110th Congress during his campaign.

Immigration bill

As early as 2005, McCain conducted bipartisan efforts with fellow Senator Ted Kennedy to create a bill — the Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act — that would change America's immigration policy and provide a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants already in the country. Later McCain championed the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007.

In an interview in June 2007, potential candidate Fred Thompson criticized Reagan's immigration policy of 1986, saying: "Twelve million illegal immigrants later, we are now living in a nation that is beset by people who are suicidal maniacs and want to kill countless innocent men, women and children around the world. We're sitting here now with essentially open borders." McCain responded, "I travel around the country extensively and that's certainly not the impression I have. I have not detected a nation full of suicidal maniacs." A Thompson spokesman said he was not calling immigrants "suicidal maniacs" but rather saying that terrorists could infiltrate the borders.

Iowa Straw Poll

Main article: Straw polls for the Republican Party (United States) presidential nomination, 2008

In June 2007, McCain drew some criticism for dropping out of the August Iowa Straw Poll. Some Republican officials felt the move could be seen as "dissing Iowa." In response, a man in a chicken suit, known as the Iowa Chicken, began demonstrating at McCain's appearances in Iowa and carrying a sign reading "you balked at the straw poll." Despite this, McCain maintained that he was still planning on competing in the Iowa Caucus. Some political observers have opined that the Straw Poll results are bought by campaigns.

However, polls taken in June showed that McCain's Iowa support had dropped to the single digits, from the mid-20s to 6%.

Campaign downsizing and restructuring

McCain's second quarter 2007 fundraising results and campaign financials were poor. Both McCain supporters and political observers pointed to McCain's support for the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007, very unpopular among the Republican base electorate, as a primary cause of his fundraising problems.

Large-scale campaign staff downsizing took place in early July, with 50 to 100 staffers let go and others taking pay cuts or switching to no pay. McCain's aides said the campaign was considering taking public matching funds, and would focus its efforts on the early primary and caucus states. McCain however said he was not considering dropping out of the race.

Fellow Senator, but Immigration Reform Act opponent, Tom Coburn wrote a piece for National Review praising McCain for showing great political courage in sticking behind the Act even though it was damaging his presidential hopes.

Campaign shakeups reached the top level on July 10, 2007, when campaign manager Terry Nelson and campaign chief strategist John Weaver both departed. Another senior aide and co-author of McCain's books, Mark Salter, reduced his role in the campaign as well (he would later return to a full role). McCain's co-chair for his Florida campaign, State Rep Bob Allen, was arrested on July 11, 2007, on charges of sexual sollicitation (prostitution). In addition, on July 16, 2007, nine members of McCain's staff, including Brian Jones, McCain's communications director, and two deputies, Matt David and Danny Diaz, announced their resignations.

"Living off the Land"

Following the upheaval, the new McCain campaign put out a plan for how to continue on. Entitled "Living Off the Land: A Plan for Financial Viability", it called for expenses to be greatly cut and for McCain to take advantage of free media such as debates and sponsored events. McCain would focus on the early caucus and primary states, instead of trying to run a nationally-scoped effort, would try to "win debates and outperform other candidates," and thereby regain momentum and recapture the faith of potential donors.

McCain's strategy was hampered by several other events within the Republicans dominating the political discussion in the ensuing months: Fred Thompson's entry into the race in early September; the focus in debates over battles between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney; and the discussion over the impact of Romney's religion. Mike Huckabee's sudden surge from the second tier into near-frontrunner status dominated much of the news in November and December of 2007. Nevertheless, McCain persevered, riding his famous Straight Talk Express bus through New Hampshire and, as in the past, granting reporters and bloggers far more direct access than would other campaigns.

December 2007: Comeback

John McCain campaigning in Merrimack, New Hampshire on December 29, 2007. "Mac is back!" became a familiar chant in his appearances once his campaign fortunes improved.

In the final months before the caucuses and primaries began, McCain had still not nearly reclaimed his previous front-runner status. However, the Republican race was quite unsettled, with none of the top-tier candidates dominating the race and all of them possessing major vulnerabilities. Huckabee's ascendence was damaging to Romney, as they traded shots during the days leading up to the Iowa caucuses. Romney and Huckabee put much of their early efforts into Iowa, making the caucus particularly crucial for each of them. Giuliani's campaign was suffering from conflicts regarding strategy, damaging revelations about his personal life and the federal indictment of longtime ally and friend Bernard Kerik. Thompson's campaign had not gained momentum after his late entry to the race and had been described as "lackluster". Through November, McCain had put little effort into Iowa, instead focusing on New Hampshire, where he had staged a big win in his 2000 campaign. By mid-December McCain had climbed back to second place in some New Hampshire polls, and also hoped to benefit from independents, who are able to vote in the New Hampshire Republican primary. Political observers also saw McCain as the "second choice" of many voters, one who could benefit from the troubles of Romney and Giuliani in particular.

McCain's candidacy in New Hampshire was bolstered by a December 2 endorsement from the often-influential New Hampshire Union Leader. This was followed by an endorsement from The Boston Globe, which is circulated within New Hampshire, on December 15. He was endorsed by the smaller Portsmouth Herald on December 16, and by the Boston Herald on December 20. The Boston Herald endorsement prompted McCain to state in an ad that "Romney's hometown newspaper says the choice is clear: John McCain". These coincided with an unusual national candidate-level, cross-party endorsement of McCain by 2000 Democratic vice-presidential nominee Joe Lieberman on December 16; the McCain camp hoped that this would help him appeal to independent voters in New Hampshire. McCain also won the endorsement of the influential Des Moines Register in Iowa, which surprised even McCain because he had not focused many resources on the state, and because of his opposition to federal subsidies for ethanol - a favorite issue of Iowan farmers. By a few days before Christmas, there were multiple press reports of a "McCain surge", with poll numbers improving both in early states — including Iowa — and nationwide. The New Hampshire resurgence was further confirmed by Romney now changing the focus of his criticisms from Giuliani to McCain. By the time the Concord Monitor endorsed him on December 29, over twenty New Hampshire papers, large and small, had given him their nods. Some political analysts cautioned that even if the McCain campaign staged some surprise early showings or victories, it was still short on the money and ground organization necessary to exploit a breakthrough. Conservative columnist Robert Novak, though, predicted on December 27 that if McCain could win New Hampshire, he would be the favorite to "sweep through subsequent primaries despite meager finances and organization". Novak also stated that McCain is seen by Republican insiders as the "best bet" to win the nomination and the candidate most likely to defeat a Democrat in the November general election.

When the close proximity of the first contests to the holidays prompted many candidates to release Christmas videos — allowing them to continue presenting their messages, but in more seasonal settings — McCain chose one which told his Good Samaritan story of a POW camp guard in North Vietnam who undid his torture ropes for a night and then later drew a cross in the dirt for him on Christmas Day.

The December 27 assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto drew responses from all of the major candidates. McCain, a longtime member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, called attention to his foreign policy experience, as well as his personal interaction with Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf. He also drew a contrast with his main Republican rivals, who did not have experience in foreign policy matters. Many observers saw McCain as the candidate most likely to benefit from a heightened focus on international events.

Caucuses and primaries 2008

Iowa

The first vote of the 2008 election season took place in the Iowa caucuses on January 3, 2008. McCain came in fourth place, with 13.1% of the vote. Mike Huckabee was the winner with 34%. Because McCain, unlike Romney and Huckabee, had not focused on Iowa early, his campaign officials said they were satisfied with his placement. Many political observers considered Huckabee's easy win a blow to Romney - McCain's main rival in New Hampshire. Romney spent about five times as much as Huckabee on advertising in Iowa.

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire primaries came only five days after Iowa. McCain's rising New Hampshire poll numbers indicated that he could benefit from Romney's poor Iowa showing. McCain participated in a January 5 debate along with Romney, Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson and Paul. The debate particularly highlighted differences between McCain and Romney, as the two traded shots on the immigration issue. Polls in the days leading up to the vote showed McCain leading Romney in a tight race, and all candidates campaigned in the state in the days following the Iowa vote. McCain held over 100 of his signature town hall-style meetings in the state, in many cases repeating visits that he had made during his successful 2000 primary there. Despite McCain's resurgence, his campaign was still strapped for funds: top-level staff was working without paychecks, commercials were being prepared at cost, and event mailers were only a quarter of what he was able to send out in his 2000 campaign.

On January 8, 2008, McCain won the New Hampshire primary, gaining about 37 percent of the vote to Mitt Romney's 32 percent. Amid chants of "Mac is back!", McCain made his victory remarks. "When the pundits declared us finished, I told them, 'I'm going to New Hampshire where the voters don't let you make their decisions for them," McCain said. "I'm going to New Hampshire, and I'm going to tell people the truth.'"

Michigan

With different winners in Iowa and New Hampshire - and Mitt Romney taking the lower-profile Wyoming caucus - the January 15 Michigan primary loomed as an important battle, despite the state's delegation size being cut in half for holding the primary too early. Polls after New Hampshire showed a tight race between McCain and Romney, with Huckabee a close third. Many saw Michigan as Romney's last chance for a campaign-saving win after disappointments in the first two races. Others said that a win in Michigan could cement McCain's status as the "front-runner" for the nomination. McCain's campaign garnered about $1 million in newly contributed funds immediately after the New Hampshire win, but still had $3.5 million in bank debt. He was not alone in feeling a financial pinch; the entire Republican field suffered from a lack of enthusiasm and lower donations than the Democratic candidates were getting, with by comparison Hillary Rodham Clinton getting $6 million in new funds immediately after her New Hampshire win.

Nevertheless, some polls showed McCain getting a significant national bounce from his New Hampshire win; the January 11 CNN nationwide poll had him at 34 percent support, a 21-point increase from where he had been just a month before, and a significant lead over Huckabee (21 percent) and Giuliani (18 percent). As the Michigan race entered its final days, McCain gained some notoriety by sending out mailers there and in South Carolina attacking Romney's tax record and touting his own. A Romney campaign spokesman called the ad "as sloppy as it is factually incorrect", and FactCheck.org called the piece "misleading". McCain responded by saying, "It's not negative campaigning. I think it's what his record is." "It's a tough business," he added.

The dominant issue in Michigan was the state of the economy. Michigan had by far the nation's largest unemployment rate, at 7.4 percent, and was continuing to lose jobs from its historical manufacturing base. McCain offered a bit of his "straight talk" strategy, saying that "There are some jobs that aren't coming back to Michigan," and proposing federal job training plans and other remedies to compensate. Romney seized on McCain's statement as overly pessimistic and promoted instead his family heritage — "[I've] got the automobile industry in my blood veins" — as well as his being a Washington outsider who would go there and "turn Washington inside out."

In the end, McCain finished second in the primary behind Romney, gaining 30 percent of the vote to Romney's 39 percent.

South Carolina and Nevada

The campaign then moved towards the January 19 South Carolina primary, the state which effectively ended McCain's 2000 campaign for President. Unlike 2000, McCain had the support of much of the state Republican establishment, both in terms of endorsements and campaign staff support. Nevertheless a bit of 2000 surfaced when a group of unknown size called "Vietnam Veterans Against John McCain" set up a website and began sending crude mailers to media members alleging that McCain passed military information to the North Vietnamese during his time as a POW. McCain set up a Truth Squad to combat such attacks and emphasized that he was supported by 75 former POWs. Orson Swindle, who was a POW with McCain, called the flier a "vicious" fraud. "Nothing could be further from the truth," Swindle said. "I know because I was there. The truth is, the North Vietnamese offered John McCain early release, and he refused." After that, however, there was little in the way of dirty tricks during the rest of the campaign.

McCain won the South Carolina primary on January 19, gaining 33% of the vote compared to second-place finisher Mike Huckabee's 30%, winning groups he usually did well with, such as veterans and seniors, and doing well enough with other groups, such as evangelicals. In his victory remarks to supporters that evening, he said, "It took us awhile, but what's eight years among friends?," noting the reversal of fortune from his 2000 defeat there. Indeed, The New York Times described McCain's win as "exorcising the ghosts of the attack-filled primary here that derailed his presidential hopes eight years ago."

There had been a steady barrage of apocalyptic statements and predictions in the days before the South Carolina vote from movement conservative icons: Rush Limbaugh said that if Huckabee or McCain won the nomination, it would "destroy the Republican Party... be the end of it," while Tom DeLay said "McCain has done more to hurt the Republican Party than any elected official I know of." Other talk radio hosts also subjected McCain to criticism for being insufficiently conservative. Prominent conservative radio host Michael Medved said after McCain's win that talk radio was the "big loser" of the primary, adding that the medium has "unmistakably collapsed in terms of impact, influence and credibility because of its hysterical and one-dimensional involvement in the GOP nomination fight."

The Nevada caucus the same day drew less attention from Republican candidates, although the state had 31 delegates at stake compared to South Carolina's 24. McCain did not seriously compete in Nevada, and finished third with 13% of the vote, finishing behind both Romney and Ron Paul.

Florida

The race then moved to the January 29 Florida primary. This would be a test for McCain among core Republican voters, as unlike New Hampshire and South Carolina, independents and Democrats would not be able to vote in the Republican primary. McCain, Giuliani and Romney were closely matched in pre-election polls, and the contest was seen as important to each campaign, as it was the last primary before Super Tuesday, when 41% of the total delegates were up for grabs. It was also the first time that Rudy Giuliani would seriously compete for delegates since a partial effort in New Hampshire, and the first primary after Fred Thompson withdrew his candidacy.

A January 24 debate at Florida Atlantic University was sedate, with none of the candidates attacking each other and economics the predominant theme. By the next day, however, McCain and Romney were going at each other, with McCain accusing Romney of having once advocated timetables for withdrawal from Iraq, and Romney saying that was untrue — an assessment shared by news organizations, which labeled McCain's charge as misleading — and demanding an apology. Certain statements dogged McCain. NBC News' Tim Russert during a debate raised a McCain quote in which McCain said, "I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated." Romney seized on these and declared that he, not McCain, was the right choice to lead the country during times of economic uncertainty. On the day before the vote, McCain slammed Romney for flip-flopping, while Romney released a "top ten list" of times McCain had attacked fellow Republicans. Both candidates used the ultimate Republican insult, calling each other a liberal. Overall, McCain was outspent by Romney on Florida television ads by a 3-to-1 margin. Conservative talk radio continued to hammer McCain, with Laura Ingraham saying she was "concerned about the mental stability of the McCain campaign" and Mark Levin continuing his practice of calling him "John McLame".

As the election neared, Giuliani slumped to a battle for third place with Huckabee, while McCain and Romney each had polls showing them in the lead. McCain garnered the late endorsements of Florida Senator and former Chairman of the Republican National Committee Mel Martinez and the highly popular Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist; Crist had reportedly pledged his support to Giuliani, and the Giuliani campaign was described as "visibly upset" by the McCain endorsement.

On January 29 McCain won the Florida primary and the state's 57 delegates, taking 36% of the total vote. Romney was second with 31% and Giuliani was third at 15%.

Super Tuesday

After Florida, the campaigns focused their attention on the 21 states voting on February 5, known as Super Tuesday. McCain was seen as the front-runner for the nomination heading in to this most important of primary dates. He had the lead in delegates to the national convention, and on January 30 he was officially endorsed by the withdrawing Giuliani.

The candidates sparred at a debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California on January 30, with former First Lady Nancy Reagan present in the front row. The most heated exchange came as Romney accused McCain of dirty tricks in his misleading Florida statements about Romney having proposed an Iraq withdrawal timetable.

McCain reacts to his Super Tuesday victories during a celebration that night at the Arizona Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix.

On January 31 McCain received the endorsement of Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger and began campaigning with him. This was a key endorsement, as California was one of the Super Tuesday states, and had more delegates than any other state. The same day, Governor Rick Perry of Texas threw his support behind McCain. Perry had previously been a Giuliani supporter, while Schwarzenegger had refrained from endorsing either McCain or Giuliani because he counted both men as friends. Meanwhile, Romney, still burning about McCain's misleading Iraq withdrawal timetable charge, compared McCain to disgraced former President Richard Nixon, saying that McCain's claim was “reminiscent of the Nixon era” and that “I don’t think I want to see our party go back to that kind of campaigning.”

McCain won his home state of Arizona, taking all 53 of the state's delegates and the largest of the Super Tuesday prizes, winning nearly all of California's 173 delegates. McCain also scored wins in Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Oklahoma.

The next day, McCain appeared confident that he would be the Republican nominee. Estimates showed him with 707 delegates - nearly 60% of the total needed to win the nomination. He began to appeal to disaffected conservatives, saying ""We share the common principles and values and ideas for the future of this country based on a fundamental conservative political philosophy, which has been my record." He also suggested that the right wing of the party "calm down a little bit" and begin to look for areas of agreement. Meanwhile, Romney advisers privately expressed doubts about whether their candidate could realistically hope to defeat McCain, and it was unclear if Romney would spend significant money on key February 12 contests in Virginia and Maryland.

Romney ends campaign

Both McCain and Romney addressed the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, DC on February 7. Romney used his speech to announce the end of his campaign, making McCain the presumptive Republican nominee. McCain spoke about an hour later, again appealing to conservative uncertainty about his ideology. He focused on his opposition to abortion and gun control, as well as his support for lower taxes and free-market health care solutions. He told the CPAC audience that he arrived in Washington as "a foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution", and addressed the issue of illegal immigration - one of the major issues where conservatives have attacked McCain. He said that "it would be among my highest priorities to secure our borders first", before addressing other immigration laws.

More February contests

February 9 saw voting in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington state. Huckabee won an easy victory in Kansas, claiming all 36 of the state's delegates to the national convention. Only 14,016 votes were cast, and the McCain campaign expressed no concern over the lightly attended caucus. However, social conservatives had a strong presence in the Kansas Republican party, and the results served to highlight conservative dissatisfaction with the Senator. Louisiana was much closer, but Huckabee won there as well, beating McCain by less than one percentage point. McCain was declared the winner of the Washington caucuses, where 18 delegates were at stake. The February 19 primary would determine the other 19 delegates from the state. After the caucuses, Huckabee's campaign indicated that they would challenge the results.

Next up was the Potomac primary on February 12, with voting in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. McCain swept the three races and took all 113 delegates which were at stake. The next day, the McCain camp released a memo calling a Huckabee win "mathematically impossible". McCain began to focus on the Democrats, particularly leading candidate Barack Obama, in anticipation of the general election.

The day after McCain's Potomac sweep, the Kansas City Star published a list of people who have been mentioned as possible McCain running mates, if he secured the nomination.

On February 14, Mitt Romney officially endorsed McCain and asked his approximately 280 delegates to support him at the national convention. If all or most of Romney's delegates backed McCain, it would give him nearly enough to win the nomination, with several large states still yet to vote. Despite these developments, Huckabee vowed to stay in the race. "I may get beat, but I’m not going to quit," he said. A few days later, McCain was endorsed by former President George H.W. Bush, in a move intended to shore up his support among base party elements.

On February 19, McCain continued his winning ways, picking up wins over Huckabee in the Wisconsin primary and the Washington state primary.McCain and Barack Obama engaged in a pointed exchange over Al-Qaeda in Iraq on February 27.

Alleged inappropriate involvement with lobbyists

Main articles: John McCain lobbyist controversy, February 2008 and Criticism of The New York Times § McCain article criticism

On February 20 2008, The New York Times broke a story involving a possible romantic affair eight years earlier between McCain and lobbyist Vicki Iseman, both of whom deny the allegations. The relationship allegedly existed during McCain's 2000 presidential campaign. In separate interviews with The New York Times, two former associates of McCain said they "became convinced" that a romantic relationship existed and warned him that he was risking his campaign and his political career. Both said McCain acknowledged behaving inappropriately and that he pledged to keep his distance from Iseman. The associates (whose names were not indentified) said they had become disillusioned with the senator, spoke independently of each other and provided details that were corroborated by others.

A McCain spokesperson characterized the story as a "hit and run smear campaign" and "gutter politics" and went on to say, "It is a shame that the New York Times has lowered its standards [...]" Subsequent reports, however, have contradicted McCain's account of the events.

The closeness of the relationship recalls McCain's earlier and continued contacts with corporate lobbyists including Charles Keating, Richard Davis, and Charlie Black. Black and Davis, like Iseman, are telcom lobbyists. Davis ran McCain's previous presidential campaign and Black is a senior advisor to McCain's 2008 campaign.

The article received a widespread criticism among both liberals and conservatives, McCain supporters and non-supporters as well as talk radio personalities. Robert S. Bennett, whom McCain had hired to represent him in this matter, defended McCain's character. Bennett, who was the special investigator during the Keating Five scandal that The Times revisited in the article, said that he fully investigated McCain back then and suggested to the Senate Ethics Committee to not pursue charges against McCain.

"And if there is one thing I am absolutely confident of, it is John McCain is an honest and honest man. I recommended to the Senate Ethics Committee that he be cut out of the case, that there was no evidence against him, and I think for the New York Times to dig this up just shows that Senator McCain's public statement about this is correct. It's a smear job. I'm sorry. "

Bennett, a registered Democrat who was on Hannity and Colmes to promote his autobiography where he detailed the Keating Five experience coincidentally as the story broke, stated disagreements with McCain on some policy positions yet still defended McCain's character. Bennett felt that the Senate committee only included McCain's name because had they not, the case would have only involved Democrats.

Former staffer to President Bill Clinton and current Hillary Clinton supporter Lanny Davis said the article "had no merit." Stating that he did not support McCain's bid for the White House, Davis, who had himself lobbied for the same cause Iseman lobbied McCain for, said that McCain only wrote a letter to the FCC to ask them to "act soon" and refused to write a letter that supported the sale of the television station the article talked about.

Many of the same conservative talk radio hosts who had backed Romney rallied to McCain's defense in the aftermath of the story. Limbaugh called the controversy a "clear example of the drive-by media ... trying to take him out". Laura Ingraham and David Brody, two past McCain critics, also criticized the story. Ingraham called it "one of the more ridiculous pieces I have read in some time".

March contests - Wrapping up Republican nomination

President George W. Bush and Senator McCain at the White House March 5, 2008 following McCain's March 4 primary sweep.

John McCain officially clinched the Republican presidential nomination on March 4 2008, sweeping the primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont. That night, Mike Huckabee withdrew from the race and endorsed McCain.

General election campaign

See also: United States Republican vice presidential candidates, 2008

On March 5, President Bush welcomed McCain to the White House and officially endorsed the man who would be his party's standard-bearer in November. The endorsement was seen as helping McCain rally conservatives, and brought with it the promise of much-needed fundraising help heading in to the general election. Democrats painted a different picture, hoping to capitalize on Bush's low approval ratings. The Democratic National Committee said that McCain would offer a "third term of George W. Bush".

McCain turned his attention to the November general election, while the Democratic primaries continued to be a battle between Clinton and Obama. McCain faced the challenge of staying in the news as the Democrats garnered headlines with their protracted nomination battle, which showed no signs of ending before the Democratic National Convention in late August. However, having the nomination locked up early also gave McCain time to build a national organization and put his general election strategy into action for the six months leading up to the Republican National Convention. McCain planned to raise money and visit several sites in the U.S. before embarking on a tour of Europe and the Middle East as part of a congressional delegation. McCain did not immediately indicate when he would make his choice for Vice President, a decision made more pressing by McCain's age. Even before his March 4 primary wins, McCain indicated that he would campaign "everywhere" in the general election - including traditionally Democratic states like California, New Jersey and Connecticut. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released March 12 showed McCain in a virtual tie with both Obama and Clinton in hypothetical November matchups. In an attempt to make up for his fundraising disadvantage in relation to the Democratic candidates, the campaign merged its resources with the Republican National Committee, and named former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina head of the "Victory 2008" committee charged with fundraising and Get Out The Vote efforts. The campaign also announced that it would use an unorthodox organizational structure, opting to have several regional campaign directors rather than one centralized staff.

McCain began his overseas trip on March 16, arriving in Baghdad to meet with U.S. military officials as well as Iraqi political leaders. While the campaign was not involved in the trip, which was official Senate business, it served as a chance for McCain to highlight his credentials in foreign affairs, seen to be the main strength of his candidacy. After Iraq, the group planned to travel to Israel, London and Paris.

Polls released later in March showed McCain ahead of both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical general election matchups. Both leads were above the margin of error in the polls by Zogby International and Rasmussen Reports.

A boost to McCain's campaign came on March 25, when former First Lady Nancy Reagan endorsed the Senator at her home in Bel Air, Los Angeles, California. Reagan released a statement, reading, "John McCain has been a good friend for over thirty years. My husband and I first came to know him as a returning Vietnam War POW, and were impressed by the courage he had shown through his terrible ordeal. I believe John’s record and experience have prepared him well to be our next president.” Standing with Reagan, McCain said, "This is an important, most important kind of expression of confidence in my ability to lead the party that I could have." McCain's friendship with Nancy Reagan had survived a period of coldness following his divorce from his first wife Carol, whom the Reagans were quite fond of. Reagan's endorsement could help McCain gain the support of conservatives, who had not always agreed with his separation from the Republican party on some issues. At the same time, her backing could help align McCain with the late President Ronald Reagan, who attracted Democratic and Republican voters.

On March 26, McCain gave his first major speech on foreign policy since securing the nomination. While McCain warned that national security could not be achieved through "passive" measures, he sounded a conciliatory tone in regards to foreign policy in general. Speaking to the World Affairs Council in Los Angeles, he stressed the need for more cooperation with allies, called for nuclear disarmament and said that he "detest[s]" war. He stated that America's power "does not mean we can do whatever we want, whenever we want."

On March 31, McCain began a "biographical tour", visiting several places that were key to his early life and military career.

In early April, McCain said he had compiled a list of roughly 20 potential running mates, and that he hoped to have selected a Vice President well before the Republican Convention in September.

Foreign policy and the Iraq War were again in the campaign spotlight on April 8, 2008. McCain questioned General David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, during the latter's testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee. McCain told the committee that a promise of withdrawal would be "reckless" and a "failure of moral and political leadership". While McCain was supportive of Petraeus, he questioned the general on recent outbreaks of violence and some failures among the Iraqi military.

Despite the earlier opposition from conservatives, in April 2008, there were signs that the Republican Party base was coalescing behind McCain's candidacy. A CBS News/NY Times poll showed that McCain was viewed favorably by 78 percent of conservatives, and unfavorably by only 18 percent. This was the same percentage who had an unfavorable opinion of George W. Bush at the same time in 2000. On May 5, 2008 the McCain Campaign announced the launch of a Spanish language site call Bienvenidos McCain or "McCain Welcomes." It presents the candidates positions and appeals in Spanish.

Media coverage

An October 29, 2007, study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism and the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy found that through the first five months of 2007, McCain had received the most unfavorable media coverage of any of the major 2008 presidential candidates, with 12 percent of the stories having a favorable tone towards him, 48 percent having an unfavorable tone, and with the balance neutral. In terms of amount of coverage, McCain was the subject of 7 percent of all stories, second-most among Republicans and fourth-most overall. McCain's negative coverage mostly included pessimistic "horse race" stories that focused on his campaign's slippage in national polls and fundraising difficulty; it also included his support for the then-unpopular Iraq troop surge. McCain's campaign went through its near-total collapse soon after the window of this study; the press subsequently focused on a "McCain is dead" story line through the summer, which it was slow to change away from.

By the time the 2008 primary season began, McCain's media coverage had completely shifted. He was now viewed as a "comeback" story, always an attractive angle for reports. In addition, McCain returned to his long-standing practice of granting almost unlimited media access to him on this bus; this as well as the notion that he engages in "straight talk" free of political calculation gave him a positive personal sentiment in the press. Reflecting this feeling, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough joked of the media, "I think every last one of them would move to Massachusetts and marry John McCain if they could." Measurements by the University of Navarra indicated that throughout January 2008, McCain's global media attention surged from being a distant third among Republican candidates to being the equal of Romney and Huckabee.

There have been a few media reports addressing whether McCain meets the "natural born" qualification for becoming President.[2][3][4]

Fundraising and finances

After first-quarter fundraising totals were released in early April, totals showed McCain's $13.6 million lagging behind rivals in the race. He spent more than $8 million in campaign funds during the first quarter, leaving him with $5.2 million in the bank and $1.8 million in debts. McCain exceeded 51,000 individual donors, more than rivals Giuliani, with 28,356, and Romney, with 36,538. However, McCain was worried at the high "burn rate" of money used during the first quarter and retooled his entire financial operations after the reports came back.

McCain's second-quarter fundraising totals were worse, with intake falling to $11.2 million and expenses continuing such that only $2 million cash was on hand. McCain's aides said the campaign was considering taking public matching funds There are some indications that although the campaign has $2 million cash on hand at the end of Q2, a 7-figure debt will make the monetary situation even more dire.

As of September 30, 2007, John McCain had raised $32,124,785 for his campaign for presidency. Private donors have given $30,183,761 toward his campaign, PACs have given $458,307, and $1,482,717 has come from other sources. 70% of the PAC contributions has come from business groups, 1% from labor groups, and the final 29% from ideological organizations. So far 95.6% of his finances have been disclosed, while 4.4% has not.

McCain was the first candidate to accept public financing from the presidential election campaign fund checkoff.

During the campaign's summer 2007 financial woes, it used a list of donors as collateral in order to get approval on a bank loan. This raised the question of whether the campaign's privacy policy was violated by such a use. A McCain spokesperson said it did not, since all of the campaign's assets were pledged as collateral at the time, not just the donor list.

By December 2007, McCain was using 32 lobbyists as fundraisers, more than any other candidate.

Endorsements

Main article: List of John McCain presidential campaign endorsements

McCain has gained the endorsements of many high profile figures, including President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, former President George H. W. Bush, and former First Lady Nancy Reagan. Some endorsements have been controversial, however; McCain began to arouse criticism after he gained the endorsement of evangelical preacher John Hagee. Hagee is controversial to many for his beliefs, including alleged anti-Catholic remarks. After receiving the endorsement, McCain said that it was "probably a mistake" to accept it, although he stated that he is still pleased to have Hagee's support.

Opposing forces

Conservatives

Some parts of the conservative movement allege that McCain's past is not conservative and use this as their primary motive for opposing McCain's candidacy. Others have also claimed that McCain's past actions have hindered the progress of right-wing supporters, citing the McCain-Feingold Act, a campaign finance reform bill, which McCain co-authored with Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, an immigration bill co-authored with Ted Kennedy, and voting against the Bush tax cuts.

Dr. James Dobson, leader of Focus on the Family, has criticized McCain's opposition to passing a Constitutional Amendment banning same-sex marriage. Dobson said that McCain's campaign finance reform bill sought to prevent groups such as Focus on the Family from spreading their messages on pending legislation.

Ron Paul supporters

Paleoconservative and Libertarian supporters of Congressman Ron Paul and his 2008 presidential bid have also failed to support McCain, even after McCain became the presumptive Republican nominee in March. In the Nevada caucus, pro-Paul state delegates outnumbered McCain delegates with a super-majority. Paul supporters were able to change the rules to allow them to nominate their own national delegates rather than the GOP suggested slate who would vote for McCain. Congressman Paul himself has repeatedly refused to endorse McCain for president and even stated that he believes Barack Obama will defeat McCain in November due to McCain's political views.

In the April 22 Pennsylvania Primary, 16% of Republicans voted for Ron Paul, with 27% overall voting for someone other than McCain. On May 6, in North Carolina and Indiana, 26% and 23%, respectively, of Republicans did not vote for McCain, while on May 13 in West Virginia, McCain did not receive 24% of the vote. Glenn Beck and Ann Coulter have commented that these numbers mean McCain's campaign lacks "passionate support," contrasting these results with the behavior of Barack Obama supporters.

Moderates and liberals

McCain has also been criticized by moderates and liberals for abandoning the maverick positions he held in the early 2000s to become one of the Bush Administration's strongest supporters in the Senate. In particular, McCain is criticized for supporting the Bush tax cuts. Though he opposed them in 2001 for favoring the wealthy and increasing the national debt, in 2006 McCain voted for extending them for five years, and has repeatedly said in his campaign that he now supports making them permanent.

Both Democratic candidates have criticized McCain on these issues, saying that his policies mirror those of George W. Bush. For example, Senator Barack Obama said that "John McCain once opposed these tax cuts -- he rightly called them unfair and fiscally irresponsible. But now he has done an about face and wants to make them permanent, just like he wants a permanent occupation in Iraq. No matter what the costs, no matter what the consequences, John McCain seems determined to carry out a third Bush term."[5] Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, has attacked John McCain's Social Security privatization plan, saying "The American people rejected the Bush privatization plan in 2005 and the American people will reject the Bush-McCain privatization plan in 2008."

McCain defended his position of supporting the Bush tax cuts because he claims that rescinding them would, in effect, be a tax increase at a time when he feels would make the economy worse.

External links

Presidential campaign

• Presidential Campaign Website
  • YouTube page
  • Facebook page
  • MySpace page
  • Spartan Internet Political Performance Index Weekly Ranking for John McCain
• John McCain's presidential campaign finance reports and data at the Federal Election Commission
• John McCain's presidential campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
• Sen. John McCain's Candidate Position Tracker from CFR.org

Grassroots supporters

• Blogs4McCain.com - Bloggers for McCain
• McCain Blogette - McCain's Daughter
• McCain Talk - Discussion Forums
• Hoosiers for McCain - Indiana Supporters

Support resources

• McCain Store - McCain Store

Documentaries, topic pages and databases

• NewsHour with Jim Lehrer - Vote 2008: John McCain
• New York Times — John McCain news stories and commentary
• John McCain 2008 presidential campaign at Curlie
• Select2008

Books

• David Brooks and Paul Waldman, Free Ride: John McCain and the Media, Anchor Press, 2008 ISBN 0307279405
• Matt Welch, McCain: The Myth of a Maverick, Palgrave Macmillan, 2007 ISBN 0230603963