Opinion polling for the next Polish parliamentary election: Difference between revisions
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| [https://twitter.com/opinia24/status/1755617771873034420 Opinia24] |
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| data-sort-value="2024-02-07" | 06–207 Feb |
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| 1,001 |
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| 24.0 |
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| style="background:#FDDCB8;" | '''31.0''' |
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| colspan="2" | 16.8 |
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| 9.1 |
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| 8.7 |
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| 1.5 |
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| 2.2 |
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| 1.1 |
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| 5.7 |
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| style="background:{{party color|Civic Platform}}; color:black;" | '''7''' |
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| [https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/ko-niemal-remisuje-z-pis-najnowszy-sondaz-6990046271532000a United Surveys / WP.pl] |
| [https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/ko-niemal-remisuje-z-pis-najnowszy-sondaz-6990046271532000a United Surveys / WP.pl] |
Revision as of 16:15, 8 February 2024
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In the run up to the next Polish parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Poland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 15 October 2023, to the day of the next election.
To be represented in parliament electoral committees which are registered as political parties must reach an electoral threshold of 5% and those registered as coalitions must reach 8%.[1]
Graphical summary
Poll results
Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.
2024
Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
United Right | Civic Coalition | Third Way | The Left | Confederation | Nonpartisan Local Government Activists | There is One Poland | Others | Don't know | Lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polish Coalition | Poland 2050 | ||||||||||||
Opinia24 | 06–207 Feb | 1,001 | 24.0 | 31.0 | 16.8 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 7 | |
United Surveys / WP.pl | 26–28 Jan | 1,000 | 28.3 | 28.2 | 18.9 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 0.1 | |||
CBOS | 22–26 Jan | 1,000 | 24 | 29 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 5 | |||
Research Partner | 19–22 Jan | 1,119 | 30.3 | 30.1 | 13.5 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6.0 | 0.2 | ||
Pollster / "SE.pl" | 13–14 Jan | 1,048 | 32.78 | 31.69 | 16.79 | 7.85 | 7.89 | 1.28 | 1.50 | 0.22 | 1.09 | ||
United Surveys / "WP.pl" | 12–14 Jan | 1,000 | 28.4 | 27.5 | 16.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 0.9 | |||
IBRiS / "Rz" | 12–13 Jan | 1,067 | 33.9 | 30.2 | 16.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 | |||
CBOS | 8–12 Jan | 1,000 | 29 | 29 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 12 | Tie | |||
Opinia24 | 8–9 Jan | 1,002 | 26.3 | 24.3 | 17.3 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 8.9 | 2.0 | |
IBRiS / Onet | 5–8 Jan | 1,000 | 34.2 | 32.0 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 |
2023
Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
United Right | Civic Coalition | Third Way | The Left | Confederation | Nonpartisan Local Government Activists | There is One Poland | Others | Don't know | Lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polish Coalition | Poland 2050 | ||||||||||||
Pollster / SE.pl | 17 Dec | 1,033 | 33.15 | 31.28 | 16.95 | 8.37 | 6.73 | 1.46 | 1.74 | 0.32 | 1.87 | ||
United Surveys / WP.pl | 15–17 Dec | 1,000 | 33.0 | 28.4 | 19.1 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 4.6 | |||
CBOS | 2–8 Dec | 1,000 | 30 | 25 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 5 | |||
IPSOS / More in Common Polska | 1–8 Dec | 1,507 | 31 | 26 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 5 | |||
Opinia24 | 5–6 Dec | 29.2 | 24.7 | 17.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | ||
United Surveys / WP.pl | 1–3 Dec | 1,000 | 35.2 | 28.8 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 6.4 | ||||
IBRiS / "Rz" | 1–2 Dec | 1,071 | 31.5 | 27.0 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 | ||
CBOS | 20–24 Nov | 821 | 29 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 5 | |||
United Surveys / WP.pl | 17–19 Nov | 1,000 | 31.3 | 26.7 | 14.4 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 4.6 | |||
Social Changes / wPolityce.pl | 10–13 Nov | 1,081 | 33 | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
Pollster / SE.pl | 7–8 Nov | 1,014 | 35.34 | 30.77 | 16.68 | 6.90 | 7.01 | 1.36 | 1.75 | 0.19 | 4.57 | ||
United Surveys / WP.pl | 3–5 Nov | 1,000 | 33.2 | 30.4 | 16.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | |||
IBRiS / "Rz" | 3–5 Nov | 1,071 | 32.6 | 29.2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | ||
United Surveys / WP.pl | 20–22 Oct | 1,000 | 32.8 | 29.9 | 18.7 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | |||
Parliamentary election [2] | 15 Oct | 21,596,674[2][a] | 35.38 | 30.70 | 14.40 | 8.61 | 7.16 | 1.86 | 1.63 | 0.22 | 4.68 | ||
Seat projection
231 seats are needed for a Sejm majority, while 276 seats are needed for a three-fifths Sejm supermajority to override presidential vetoes.
Polling Firm/Link | Fieldwork Period |
Sample Size | United Right | Civic Coalition | Third Way | The Left | Confederation | Others | Majority | KO+L+TD | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polish Coalition | Poland 2050 | ||||||||||
IBRiS / "Rz" | 12–13 Jan 2024 | 1,000 | 177 | 155 | 78 | 34 | 16 | 0 | Hung | 37 | |
IBRiS / Onet | 5–8 Jan 2024 | 1,000 | 194 | 166 | 67 | 29 | 4 | 0 | Hung | 32 | |
Parliamentary election[2] | 15 Oct 2023 | 21,596,674 [2][a] | 194 | 157 | 65 | 26 | 18 | 0 | Hung | 18 | |
Government approval ratings
President Andrzej Duda
Date(s) conducted |
Polling firm/Link | Sample size | Approve | Disapprove | Don't know | Net approval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11–21 Jan 2024 | CBOS | 1,015 | 46 | 42 | 4 | |
11–21 Jan 2023 | CBOS | 1,015 | 43 | 49 | 8 | –6 |
October 15 Coalition government
Date(s) conducted |
Polling firm/Link | Sample size | Approve | Disapprove | Neither | Don't know | Net approval | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12–14 Jan 2023 | United Surveys / WP.pl | 1,000 | 54.5 | 40.3 | 5.2 | 14.2 | Tusk's government | |
12–13 Jan 2023 | IBRIS / RZ | 1,067 | 56.3 | 36.9 | 6.8 | 19.4 | Tusk's government |
Notes
References
- ^ "Sejm of the Republic of Poland". www.sejm.gov.pl. Retrieved 2023-10-25.
- ^ a b c d "Wybory do Sejmu i Senatu Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w 2023 r." wybory.gov.pl (in Polish). Retrieved 2023-10-25.