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Opinion polling for the 2024 French legislative election: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 20:19, 17 June 2024

There have been numerous opinion polls conducted for the 2024 French legislative election.

Polling

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted

First round

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size EXG NFP DVG ECO PA ENS DVC LR DVD DSV RN REC REG DIV
LFI PCF PÉ PS RE MoDem HOR UDI Anti-RN Pro-RN
Ifop 14–17 Jun 2024 1,200 1.5% 28% 3% – – 18% – 5% 4% 2% – 33% 3% – –
17 June 2024: Start of the election campaign
Ifop 15 Jun 2024 – – 26% 3.5% – – 19% – 7% 1.5% – 35% 3% – 5%
Opinion Way 12–13 Jun 2024 1,011 1% 25% 2% 2% – 20% – 7% 2% – 33% 3% – 5%
Cluster17 11–13 Jun 2024 2,800 1% 28.5% 3% 1.5% – 18% 1% 7% 2.5% 1.5% 29.5% 3.5% 1% 2%
Opinion Way 11–12 Jun 2024 1,019 1% 25% 3% 1% – 19% – 9% 1% – 32% 4% – 5%
Elabe 11–12 Jun 2024 1,502 1% 28% 5% – – 18% – 6.5% 2% – 31% 4% – 4.5%
Ifop 10–11 Jun 2024 1,089 1% 25% 5% – – 18% – 9% 1.5% 0.5% 35% 4% – 1%
1% 11% 19% 3% – – 17% – 8% 2% <0.5% 34% 4% – 1%
1% 11% 2% 6% 13% 2% – – 16% – 8% 1% 0.5% 35% 3.5% – 1%
Opinion Way 10 Jun 2024 1,095 1% 23% 4% 2% – 18% – 8% 2% – 33% 5% – 4%
Harris-Interactive 9–10 Jun 2024 2,744 3% 22% 9% – – 19% – 9% – 34% 4% – –
9 June 2024: French President Emmanuel Macron Dissolves the National Assembly after the 2024 European Parliament election[1]
Ifop 12–13 Dec 2023 1,100 1.5% 24% 6% – – 19% – 11% 3% 1% 28% 5% – 1.5%
1% 10% 4% 9% 8% 2% – – 18% – 10% 3% 1% 27% 6% – 1%
Elabe 3–5 Apr 2023 1,808 1% 25.5% 3% – – 21.5% – 11.5% 1% – 24.5% 4.5% – 6%
Ifop 20–21 Mar 2023 1,094 1% 26% 5% – – 22% – 10% 2% 1% 26% 5% – 2%
1% 11% 3% 9% 7% 3% – – 21% – 10% 1% 1% 26% 5% – 2%
Harris-Interactive 3–7 Mar 2023 2,108 1% 24% 6% – – 24% 1% 10% 3% 1% 22% 4% – 4%
Cluster17 4–6 Nov 2022 2,151 1.5% 24.5% 3% – 1% 25% 0.5% 10.5% 2% 2% 20% 5% 1% 4%
Ifop 2–4 Nov 2022 1,513 1.5% 25% 4% – – 27% – 11% 2% 0.5% 21% 5.5% – 2.5%
1.5% 11% 3% 7% 8% 2% – – 26% – 11% 3% 0% 21% 5% – 1.5%
Ministry of the Interior
(Le Monde) 		12 Jun 2022 — 1.17%
(1.19%) 		25.66%
(26.16%) 		3.70%
(3.30%) 		2.67%
(–) 		25.75%
(25.80%) 		1.25%
(1.30%) 		11.29%
(11.30%) 		2.33%
(1.92%) 		1.13%
(1.21%) 		18.68%
(18.68%) 		4.24%
(4.25%) 		1.28%
(1.09%) 		0.85%
(3.80%)

Seat projections

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size NFP DVG ENS DVC UDC DVD DSV RN REC Others
LFI PCF PÉ PS
17 June 2024: Start of the election campaign
Cluster17 11-13 Jun 2024 2,800 190–235 10–14 70-100 – 23-35 – – 195–245 – 10–16
Elabe 11–12 Jun 2024 1,502 150–190 90–130 30–40 – 220–270 – 10–20
9 June 2024: French President Emmanuel Macron Dissolves the National Assembly after the 2024 European Parliament election[1]
Harris-Interactive 9–10 Jun 2024 2,744 115–145 – 125–155 40–55 0–2 235–265 – 5–20
Ipsos (L'Obs) 8–13 Dec 2023 4,000 55–79 20–22 117–165 3 44–60 7–8 – 243–305 – 10–11
Elabe 3–5 Apr 2023 1,808 150–180 15–20 130–155 60–75 1–2 150–175 – 12–15
Harris-Interactive 3–7 Mar 2023 2,108 158–168 234–244 69–79 91–100 – 8–14
Results of 2022 election 12 Jun 2022 22,744,708 131 22 245 4 64 10 1 89 0 11[a]
  1. ^ 10 from regionalist parties and 1 Independent

References

  1. ^ a b Décret du 9 juin 2024 portant dissolution de l'Assemblée nationale, retrieved 17 June 2024
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