2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi
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Elections in Mississippi |
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The 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi will take place November 6, 2018, to elect a United States Senator from Mississippi. The election is being held to fill the seat vacated by Senator Thad Cochran when he resigned from the Senate, effective April 1, 2018, due to health concerns.[1] Republican Governor Phil Bryant appointed Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill the vacancy created by Sen. Cochran's resignation.[2] Hyde-Smith is seeking election to serve the balance of Cochran's term, which expires in January 2021.[3]
On November 6, per Mississippi law, a nonpartisan jungle primary will take place on the same day as the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the seat currently held by Roger Wicker. Party affiliations are not printed on the ballot.[4]
If no candidate gains a simple majority of the votes, a runoff special election between the top two candidates will be held three weeks later on November 27, 2018.[5]
Candidates
- Note: Special elections in Mississippi are nonpartisan. The parties below identify which party label each candidate would have run under if given the option.
Republican Party
Declared
- Cindy Hyde-Smith, incumbent U.S. Senator and former Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce[6]
- Chris McDaniel, State Senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[7][8]
Declined
- Phil Bryant, Governor of Mississippi[9]
- Andy Taggart, former chief of staff to former Governor Kirk Fordice[10]
Democratic Party
Declared
- Tobey Bartee, former Gautier, Mississippi city councilman.[11][12]
- Mike Espy, former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former U.S. Representative[13]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Jeramey Anderson, State Representative (running for MS-4)[17][18]
- David Baria, Mississippi House of Representatives Minority Leader (running for Class 1 U.S. Senate seat)[19]
- Jamie Franks, Chairman of the Lee County Democratic Party and former State Representative[20]
Primary election
Endorsements
- U.S. Executive Branch officals
- U.S. Senators
- Trent Lott, former U.S. Senate Majority Leader and U.S. Senator from Mississippi (1989-2007)
- Thad Cochran, former U.S. Senator from Mississippi (1978-2018)
- Roger Wicker, Mississippi
- U.S. Representatives
- Gregg Harper (MS-3)
- Trent Kelly (MS-1)
- Steven Palazzo (MS-4)
- U.S. Governors
- Haley Barbour, former Governor of Mississippi (2004-2012) [23]
- Phil Bryant, Mississippi
- Statewide officials
- Philip Gunn, Speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives
- Delbert Hosemann, Mississippi Secretary of State
- Lynn Fitch, State Treasurer of Mississippi
- Tate Reeves, Lieutenant Governor of Mississippi
- Stacey Pickering, State Auditor of Mississippi
- Mike Chaney, Insurance Commissioner of Mississippi
- Political operatives
- Henry Barbour, Republican National Committeeman for Mississippi
- Jeanne Luckey, Republican National Committeewoman for Mississippi[24]
- Connor Gibson, Mississippi Teenage Republicans Vice-Chairman
- Organizations
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[25]
- National Association of Realtors[26]
- Mississippi Manufacturers Association[27]
- National Rifle Association[28]
- National Right to Life Committee[29]
- U.S. Representatives
- Political operatives
- Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC[31]
- Laura Van Overschelde, Chair of the Mississippi Tea Party[32]
- Grant Sowell, Chair of the Tupelo Tea Party[33]
- Other individuals
- Bryan Fischer, host of the American Family Association's conservative talk radio program Focal Point[34][35]
- Mark Levin, lawyer, author, and radio personality[36][37]
- Kelli Ward, former Arizona State Senator and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[38]
- Organizations
- Gun Owners Of America
- US Senators
- Cory Booker, US Senator (D-NJ)[39]
- Brian Schatz, U.S. Senator (D-HI)[40]
- U.S. Representatives
- Bennie Thompson, U.S Representative (MS-2)[41]
- Terri Sewell, U.S. Representative (AL-7)[42]
- U.S. Governors
- Deval Patrick, former U.S Governor of Massachusetts[43]
- Mayors
- Eric Garcetti, Mayor of Los Angeles[44]
- Individuals
- Wesley Clark, U.S General and former 2004 presidential candidate[45]
- Alyssa Milano, actress and activist[46]
- Organizations
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 12, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Cindy Hyde-Smith | $1,654,032 | $264,232 | $1,389,799 |
Mike Espy | $408,236 | $126,760 | $281,476 |
Chris McDaniel | $327,263 | $171,208 | $156,054 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[48] |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Espy |
Cindy Hyde-Smith |
Chris McDaniel |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marist College | October 13–18, 2018 | 511 LV | ± 6.1% | 29% | 38% | 15% | 2%[49] | 15% |
856 RV | ± 4.7% | 28% | 36% | 14% | 4%[50] | 17% | ||
SurveyMonkey | September 9–24, 2018 | 985 | ± 4.3% | 25% | 24% | 19% | 4%[51] | 27% |
Neighborhood Research Corporation (Courageous Conservatives PAC) | August 22–23 and 27–30, 2018 | 304 | ± 5.0% | 28% | 27% | 18% | – | 27% |
The Mellman Group (Espy) | August 1–7, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 27% | 29% | 17% | – | – |
Triumph Campaigns | July 30–31, 2018 | 2,100 | ± 3.5% | 27% | 41% | 15% | 1%[52] | 16% |
GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce) | May 1–3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 22% | 30% | 17% | 4%[53] | – |
Triumph Campaigns | April 10–11, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 33% | 33% | 13% | 6%[54] | 15% |
Chism Strategies (Espy) | March 27, 2018 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 34% | 27% | 21% | – | 18% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Nonpartisan | Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent) | |||
Nonpartisan | Tobey Bartee | |||
Nonpartisan | Mike Espy | |||
Nonpartisan | Chris McDaniel | |||
Total votes | 100.0 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[55] | Lean R | October 12, 2018 |
Inside Elections[56] | Solid R | October 12, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[57] | Likely R | October 11, 2018 |
Fox News[58] | Lean R | October 10, 2018 |
CNN[59] | Solid R | October 12, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[60] | Likely R | October 12, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[61] | Likely R | October 20, 2018 |
^Highest rating given
Polling
- with Espy and Hyde-Smith
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Espy |
Cindy Hyde-Smith |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marist College | October 13–18, 2018 | 511 LV | ± 6.1% | 36% | 50% | 1% | 13% |
856 RV | ± 4.7% | 38% | 47% | 1% | 14% | ||
The Mellman Group (Espy) | August 1–7, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 38% | – | – |
Triumph Campaigns | July 30–31, 2018 | 2,100 | ± 3.5% | 34% | 48% | – | 18% |
Mason-Dixon | April 12–14, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 34% | 46% | – | 20% |
Triumph Campaigns | April 10–11, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 36% | 42% | – | 23% |
- with Espy and McDaniel
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Espy |
Chris McDaniel |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marist College | October 13–18, 2018 | 511 LV | ± 6.1% | 43% | 36% | 2% | 19% |
856 RV | ± 4.7% | 43% | 35% | 2% | 19% | ||
The Mellman Group (Espy) | August 1–7, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 27% | – | – |
Triumph Campaigns | July 30–31, 2018 | 2,100 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 26% | – | 33% |
Mason-Dixon | April 12–14, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | – | 18% |
Triumph Campaigns | April 10–11, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 24% | – | 33% |
See also
References
- ^ Jacobs, Ben (March 5, 2018). "Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran announces he is stepping down". the Guardian. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
- ^ CNN, Eric Bradner, Kaitlan Collins and Ashley Killough,. "Governor picks Cindy Hyde-Smith to replace Cochran".
{{cite web}}
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has generic name (help)CS1 maint: extra punctuation (link) CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/08/u-s-chamber-poll-cindy-hyde-smith-leads-mike-espy-chris-mcdaniel/590942002/
- ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (March 6, 2018). "How Things Could Go Wrong For Republicans In Mississippi's New Senate Race". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved April 28, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Elections Calendar - Mississippi Secretary of State" (PDF). Retrieved October 30, 2018.
- ^ "Who will get the Golden Ticket for US Senate from Phil Bryant? - Yall Politics". yallpolitics.com.
- ^ "McDaniel to Run for Open Mississippi Senate Seat - Chris McDaniel for US Senate". March 14, 2018.
- ^ "Senator Chris McDaniel". www.facebook.com.
- ^ "Bryant not interested in Cochran seat despite urging from Trump, McConnell".
- ^ @Andy_Taggart (March 18, 2018). "I have a lot of confidence in @PhilBryantMS to make a wise choice on current @SenThadCochran vacancy. But I also intend to hold open whatever options are needed to fend off @senatormcdaniel, including a run against him" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "Shelton leaves special US Senate race". wtok.com. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
- ^ Carroll, Liz (April 23, 2018). "Chris McDaniel, Tobey Bartee qualify to run for U.S. Senate seat". wjtv.com. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
- ^ Pender, Geoff (March 5, 2018). "Espy announces run for Cochran Senate seat". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved March 6, 2018.
- ^ JOURNAL, CALEB BEDILLION DAILY. "Shelton stokes questions about possible Senate run".
- ^ "Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton announces run for U.S. Senate special election in Mississippi". clarionledger.com. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
- ^ "Democratic Mayor Jason Shelton drops out of Senate race". clarionledger.com. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
- ^ "Here are a few Democrats who could make a U.S. Senate run in Mississippi". The Clarion Ledger. Retrieved December 29, 2017.
- ^ "Millennial Democrat enters 4th Congressional District race". sunherald. Retrieved December 29, 2017.
- ^ "Cochran resigns effective April 1". POLITICO. Retrieved March 8, 2018.
- ^ Bedillion, Caleb (March 29, 2018). "Lee County Democratic Party leader mulls Senate run". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Retrieved March 29, 2018.
- ^ Donald J. Trump. ".@cindyhydesmith has helped me put America First! She's strong on the Wall, is helping me create Jobs, loves our Vets and fights for our conservative judges..." Twitter.
- ^ Donald J. Trump. "...Cindy has voted for our Agenda in the Senate 100% of the time and has my complete and total Endorsement. We need Cindy to win in Mississippi!". Twitter.
- ^ "Haley Barbour weighs in on special election". MSNBC. September 14, 2018.
- ^ "Cindy Hyde-Smith, United States Congress". cindyhydesmith.com.
- ^ Kamisar, Ben (April 13, 2018). "Chamber of Commerce makes play in Mississippi Senate race for Hyde-Smith". The Hill.
- ^ "REALTORS® Political Action Committee (RPAC) Endorses Hyde-Smith for U.S. Senate". Yall Politics. April 25, 2018. Retrieved April 25, 2018.
- ^ Cindy Hyde-Smith. "Honored to have the endorsement of @MSManufacturers! Both America and our state need strong business environments, and I am working with President @realDonaldTrump to end regulations that harm economic growth! #cindy2018". Twitter.
- ^ "NRA Endorses Hyde-Smith for U.S. Senate". National Rifle Association. August 13, 2018.
- ^ Carter, Courtney (September 10, 2018). "National Right to Life endorses Hyde-Smith for Senate". Yall Politics.
- ^ McLaughlin, Seth. "Ron Paul endorses Chris McDaniel in Mississippi Senate race". Washington Times. Retrieved September 22, 2018.
- ^ "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Retrieved January 4, 2018.
If Senator Chris McDaniel chooses to run for U.S. Senate, he will have our support and the support of these state and local leaders, along with many of their grassroots organizations... We are ready to hit the ground running to elect Chris McDaniel.
- ^ "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Retrieved January 4, 2018.
In 2014, the common folks of Mississippi made the very definite statement that we are not being heard and those in power have no intention of hearing us... One person, Chris McDaniel, had the courage to say enough is enough. We almost got it done and common people all over the country recognized what we nearly accomplished. We support Chris McDaniel's efforts to reestablish governance by the consent of the governed.
- ^ "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Retrieved January 4, 2018.
Year after year, our Senators and Congressmen rank so low on most conservative scorecards. It's time we elect a Senator who truly represents Mississippi's conservative constituency.
- ^ Fischer, Bryan [@BryanJFischer] (March 14, 2018). "Chris McDaniel decides to run for open Senate seat in MS. Excellent move. First one out of the gate. Puts the establishment on its heels playing catch-up. If the GOP is smart, will rally to his banner. Are they that smart?" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "American Family Radio's Bryan Fischer Endorses Chris McDaniel for United States Senate". mcdaniel2018.com. June 10, 2018. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
- ^ "Sen. Chris McDaniel on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved July 3, 2018.
- ^ ""I strongly endorse Chris McDaniel. I think he'd be a solid conservative for Mississippi. Senators vote on issues that affect ALL of us. I can't imagine the people in Mississippi electing someone who was a Hillary Clinton supporter for all those years." - @marklevinshow". Twitter. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
- ^ "Kelli Ward Is Trying to Consolidate the Kook Vote". The Weekly Standard. August 22, 2018.
- ^ "U.S. Senate Candidate Mike Espy Receives Backing of New Jersey Sen. Cory". yallpolitics.com. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
- ^ Brian Schatz. "I'm giving to @espyforsenate please feel free to join me and send help too. Thank you". Twitter.
- ^ https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/19/bennie-thompson-urges-national-democrats-help-mike-espy-win/620879002/
- ^ Terri Sewell. "Stompin for @espyforsenate in Mississippi on Friday! Catch the Blue Wave!!! #BlueWaveComing2018". Twitter.
- ^ http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2018/sep/20/deval-patrick-join-mike-espy-hattiesburg-saturday/.
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- ^ [html//www.clarionledger.com/story/opinion/columnists/2018/09/19/wesley-k-clark-endorses-mike-espy-u-s-senate-seat/1358451002/ html//www.clarionledger.com/story/opinion/columnists/2018/09/19/wesley-k-clark-endorses-mike-espy-u-s-senate-seat/1358451002/].
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(help) - ^ Alyssa Milano. "1. Mississippi Special Election VOTE FOR: @espyforsenate". Twitter.
- ^ "Mike Espy - U.S. Senate, Mississippi". Democracy for America. Retrieved October 13, 2018.
- ^ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 12, 2018.
- ^ Tobey Bartee with 2%, other with <1%
- ^ Tobey Bartee with 3%, other with 1%
- ^ Tobey Bartee 4%
- ^ Tobey Bartee 1%
- ^ Jason Shelton* 4%. *Withdrawn.
- ^ Jason Shelton* 6%. *Withdrawn.
- ^ "2018 Senate Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 8, 2018.
- ^ "Senate Ratings Inside Elections". insideelections.com.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Senate". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved April 8, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
- ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- ^ Silver, Nate. "Mississippi special - 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 20, 2018.
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics
- Official campaign websites