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*{{CongLinks | congbio = P000583 | votesmart = BC031929 | washpo = Ron_Paul | govtrack = 400311 | opencong = 400311_Ronald_Paul | ontheissues = TX/Ron_Paul.htm | surge = | legistorm = 413/Rep_Ron_Paul_TX.html | fec = P80000748 | opensecrets = N00005906 | followthemoney = | cspan = 45747 | rose = | imdb = 2223785 | nyt = p/ron_paul | guardian = world/ronpaul | worldcat = lccn-n81-103750 | nndb = 094/000039974 | findagrave = }}
*{{CongLinks | congbio = P000583 | votesmart = BC031929 | washpo = Ron_Paul | govtrack = 400311 | opencong = 400311_Ronald_Paul | ontheissues = TX/Ron_Paul.htm | surge = | legistorm = 413/Rep_Ron_Paul_TX.html | fec = P80000748 | opensecrets = N00005906 | followthemoney = | cspan = 45747 | rose = | imdb = 2223785 | nyt = p/ron_paul | guardian = world/ronpaul | worldcat = lccn-n81-103750 | nndb = 094/000039974 | findagrave = }}
* [http://features.journalism.org/campaign-2012-in-the-media/ron-paul/ Media coverage study] by the [[Project for Excellence in Journalism]]
* [http://features.journalism.org/campaign-2012-in-the-media/ron-paul/ Media coverage study] by the [[Project for Excellence in Journalism]]
*[http://www.empowernetwork.com/focusbot/blog/ron-paul%e2%80%99s-classic-tax-day-speech-from-april-15/?id=focusbot/Ron Paul’s classic Tax Day Speech from April 15]


{{Ron Paul}}
{{Ron Paul}}

Revision as of 22:29, 1 May 2012

Ron Paul for President 2012
CampaignU.S. presidential election, 2012
CandidateRon Paul
U.S. Representative from Texas
AffiliationRepublican Party
StatusActive
HeadquartersLake Jackson, Texas, U.S.
Key peopleJohn Tate (Manager)
Jesse Benton (Chairman)
Gary Howard, Jr. (Press Secretary)
John McArdle (Finance Director)
Fritz Wenzel (Pollster)[1][2]
Doug Wead (Senior Advisor)[3]
ReceiptsUS$38,500,000
SloganRestore America Now
Website
RonPaul2012.com

The 2012 presidential campaign of U.S. Representative Ron Paul began officially in 2011 when Paul formally announced his candidacy for the 2012 Republican Party nomination for the U.S. Presidency. Although frequently mentioned by political observers as a possible candidate, Paul stopped short of a full-fledged candidacy before May 2011. Prior to that, he had only indicated that he was considering running for the presidency.

On April 14, 2011, Paul announced the formation of a "testing-the-waters" account, and had stated that he would decide whether he would officially enter the race by at least early May. Paul announced the formation of an exploratory committee on April 26, 2011, in Des Moines, Iowa. He proceeded to officially declare his candidacy for President of the United States on May 13, 2011 in Exeter, New Hampshire.[4]

On July 12, 2011, Paul announced that he will not seek another term as the Representative of Texas's 14th District to focus on his presidential campaign.[5] As of mid-April 2012, the campaign has raised more than $38 million.[6][7][8][9][10]

Background and pre-campaign events

Heavily speculated as a possible Republican candidate in the 2012 presidential election, Paul appeared in the 2010 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll. Paul won the poll, defeating Mitt Romney, who had won it the previous three years.[11] Paul also won the 2011 CPAC straw poll with 30 percent of the vote. Following that, he also won the paid, online Arizona Tea Party Patriots straw poll on February 28, 2011 with 49% of the vote.[12]

In February 2011, Paul asked supporters to donate to his Liberty PAC to fund trips to Iowa and elsewhere to explore a possible 2012 presidential candidacy. On February 21, a Presidents' Day money bomb raised around $400,000 in 24 hours. Liberty PAC raised more than $700,000 during its February relaunch.[13][14] By the end of March, Liberty PAC had raised more than $1 million.[6]

On April 14, 2011, it was announced that Paul had formed a "testing-the-waters" organization, similar to Newt Gingrich's efforts in exploring his potential candidacy. Paul's spokesman, Jesse Benton was quoted as saying, "He remains undecided on what his plans will be, but as a final decision draws closer, his team has put the pieces in place for him to flip a switch and hit the ground running if he decides to run for president."[15] Paul announced the formation of an exploratory committee in Des Moines, Iowa on April 26 in preparation for a potential bid for the Republican presidential nomination.[16][17]

On May 5, Paul participated in a debate in Greenville, South Carolina among only five candidates.[18] A moneybomb was scheduled for the same day, which raised over $1 million for Paul's campaign.[19]

Campaign developments

Announcement

On May 13 in Exeter, New Hampshire, Paul formally announced his decision to seek the Republican nomination in the 2012 election. The announcement was broadcast live nationally on ABC's Good Morning America.[4]

GOP debates and straw polls

He participated in a debate on June 13, 2011 at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire.[20] On June 18, 2011, Paul won the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll with 41%, winning by a large margin on Jon Huntsman, who trailed second with 25% and Michele Bachmann with 13% (Mitt Romney came in fifth with 5%).[21] On June 19 he again won the Clay County Iowa StrawPoll with 25%, while Michele Bachmann trailed second with 12%.

Paul also participated in another debate on August 11, 2011, in Ames, Iowa, and overwhelmingly won the post-debate polls.[22] He then came in second in the Ames Straw Poll with 4,671 votes, narrowly losing to Michele Bachmann by 152 votes or 0.9%, a statistical first-place tie finish according to some in the news media.[23][24][25][26] He received the fourth most votes for a candidate in the history of the Ames Straw Poll.

On August 20, in the New Hampshire Young Republicans Straw Poll Paul came again first, again overwhelmingly, with 45%, Mitt Romney trailing second with 10%.[27] On August 27, in the Georgia State GOP Straw Poll Paul came in a close second place behind Georgia resident Herman Cain, who had 26% of the vote, with Paul receiving 25.7%.[28]

On September 5, Paul attended the Palmetto Freedom Forum in South Carolina along with fellow candidates Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich. The forum was paneled by congressmen Steve King of Iowa, senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina and Dr. Robert P. George, the founder of the American Principles Project which hosted the event.[29]

On September 12, Paul attended the Tea Party Republican Presidential debate broadcasted by CNN. During the event, Paul received both unexpected "cheers" and "boos" for his responses to the questions posed by the debate moderators and fellow debate participants.[30][31] When Rick Santorum questioned Paul about his position regarding the motivation behind the September 11 attacks, some of the audience jeered his response that U.S. foreign occupation was the "real motivation behind the September 11 attacks and the vast majority of other instances of suicide terrorism".[30]

When one of the moderators posed a hypothetical scenario of a healthy 30 year old man requiring intensive care but neglected to be insured pressing Paul with "Are you saying that society should just let him die?", several audience members cheered "yeah!" Paul disagreed with the audience reaction stating that while he practiced as a doctor in a Catholic hospital before the Medicaid era, "We never turned anybody away from the hospital."[31] Paul elaborated further a few days later that he believed the audience was cheering self-reliance and that "the media took it and twisted it".[32]

Jack Burkman, a Republican strategist, was asked of Paul's performance in the debate. While Burkman stated that his national radio program's polling suggested Rick Perry won the debate (156 Perry votes to 151 Paul votes), he believed Paul's support is extremely deep like Democrat support for Bobby Kennedy decades before and predicted "he could come from behind as the horses turn for home and win the nomination."[33]

On September 18, Paul won the California state GOP straw poll with 44.9% of the vote, held at the JW Marriot in downtown Los Angeles. Out of 833 ballots cast, Paul garnered the greatest number of votes with 374, beating his nearest competitor Texas Gov. Rick Perry by a wide margin.[34]

On September 24, Paul finished 5th in the GOP's Florida Presidency 5 straw poll with 10.4% of the vote.[35] Paul won with 37% of the vote at the Values Voter Summit on October 8;[36] the highest ever recorded at the event.

On October 22, Paul won the Ohio Republican straw poll with the support of 53% of the participants, more than double the support of the second-place candidate, Herman Cain (26%).[37]

Paul won the National Federation of Republican Assemblies Presidential Straw Poll of Iowa voters on October 29 with 82% of the vote.[38]

On November 19, Paul won the North Carolina Republican Straw Poll with 52% of the vote, finishing well ahead of the second-place candidate, Newt Gingrich, who received 22% of the vote.[39]

Polls

In an August Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters across the political spectrum asking if they would vote for Paul or Barack Obama, the response narrowly favored Obama (39%) over Paul (38%), but by a smaller margin than the same question asked a month ago (41% - 37%).[40] Paul finished 3rd in a late-August poll of likely Republican primary voters, trailing Rick Perry and Mitt Romney and ahead of Michele Bachmann,[41] climbing from 4th position which, according to another poll, he occupied only a few days earlier.[42]

In a September Harris Poll, respondents chose Paul (51%) over Obama (49%).[43]

In the Illinois Republican Straw Poll held in the beginning of November, Paul took 52% of the votes of those polled with Herman Cain coming in second with 18%.[44]

In a Nov. 10-12 Bloomberg News poll of Iowans likely to participate in the January 3, 2012 Republican caucuses, Paul was in a 4-way tie at 19 percent with Cain, Romney and Gingrich at 20, 18 and 17 percent respectively.[45]

A Bloomberg News poll released on November 16, 2011 showed Paul at 17% in New Hampshire, in second place to Romney's 40%.[46]

A Public Policy Polling poll released on December 13, 2011 put Paul in a statistical tie for first in Iowa with Newt Gingrich, polling 21% and 22%, respectively.[47] The RealClearPolitics.com average shows Paul in second place in New Hampshire at 18.3% on December 28, 2011.[48] Public Policy Polling results from December 18 show that Paul is now leading in Iowa with 23%, followed by Romney at 20% and Gingrich at 14%.[49]

A January 2012 Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters across the political spectrum found that in a hypothetical two-candidate race between Paul and Barack Obama, respondents preferred Obama (43%) over Paul (37%).[50] The RealClearPolitics.com average of polls also found Obama (47%) favored over Paul (42%), in a two-candidate race.[51]

A January Pew Research Center poll of registered voters across the political spectrum on the eve of the South Carolina primary found that in a hypothetical three-way race between Obama, Romney, and Paul, with Paul running as a third-party candidate, respondents would choose Obama (44%) over Romney (32%) and Paul (18%). (Paul had repeatedly stated he had no plans for a third-party run.)[52][53]

In polls of likely Republican primary voters on the eve of the South Carolina Republican primary, Paul placed third both in South Carolina (15%)[54] and nationally (14%),[55] trailing Romney and Gingrich.

Moneybombs and fundraising

Paul's second moneybomb (the first being before his official announcement) was scheduled for June 5, 2011, the anniversary of the 1933 joint resolution which abolished the gold standard.[56] The June 5 moneybomb, which was themed as "The Revolution vs. RomneyCare: Round One", raised approximately $1.1 million.[57] A third moneybomb themed "Ready, Ames, Fire!" was executed on July 19, 2011 to provide support leading up to the Ames Straw Poll on August 13, 2011, raising over $550,000.[58]

In the second quarter of 2011, Paul's campaign ranked second, behind Mitt Romney, in total dollars raised with $4.5 million.[59] This was $1.5 million more than his original goal of $3 million.[60] During that quarter, the Paul campaign had raised more money from military personnel than all other GOP candidates combined, and even more money than Barack Obama, a trend that has continued from Paul's 2008 presidential campaign.[61]

A fourth moneybomb took place on Paul's 76th birthday on August 20, 2011. It raised more than $1.8 million despite a cyber-attack against the site that took it down for several hours, after which the donation drive was extended for another twelve hours.[62]

A fifth moneybomb began on September 17, the date of the 224th anniversary of the creation of the United States Constitution. Continuing throughout the following day, it raised more than one million dollars.[63] Shortly after the Constitution Day moneybomb, a sixth moneybomb, entitled "End Of Quarter Push", began on September 22 in an attempt to generate $1.5 million before the 3rd Quarter fundraising deadline. [64]

In the third quarter of 2011, Paul raised over $8 million.[8] A three day moneybomb entitled "Black This Out" brought in more than $2.75 million in mid-October.[65][66]

On December 16, a moneybomb titled the "Tea Party MoneyBomb" took place and raised upwards of $4 million over a period of two days.[67]

Paul is also supported by a Super PAC, Endorse Liberty. As of January 16, 2012, the PAC had spent $2.83 million promoting Paul's campaign.[68]

"Blue Republican" movement

In June 2011, online publisher Robin Koerner coined the term "Blue Republican" to refer to U.S. voters who consider themselves to be liberal or progressive - or who generally vote Democratic - but plan to register as Republicans and vote in the U.S. 2012 Republican presidential primaries for Paul. The phrase "Blue Republican" quickly spread after Koerner's article "If You Love Peace, Become a 'Blue Republican' (Just for a Year)" was published in The Huffington Post on June 7. Social media entrepreneur Israel Anderson then promoted the term on Facebook, later teaming with Koerner to expand the movement.[69]

Five days after his original article coining the term, Koerner published a follow-up article on the term's popularity: "'Blue Republicans': an Idea Whose Time Has Come".[70] The article was shared on the social networking site Facebook more than 11,000 times by the time the second article was published.[71]

Federal Budget

On June 21, 2011, Paul was the first 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate to sign the Cut, Cap, and Balance Pledge. This pledge seeks commitments from politicians for changes of the debt limit, spending decreases, and taxation. The pledge also implores signers to endorse passage of a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution.[72]

Media coverage

During his previous presidential campaign, it was alleged by many supporters that there was a media blackout and suppression of coverage of Paul.[73] Similar allegations have arisen in the 2012 campaign and received some media coverage.[74] Politico columnist Roger Simon noted on CNN's Reliable Sources that Paul has received considerably less coverage than Michele Bachmann, despite earning a close second to her at the Ames Straw Poll.[75] Simon later noted again in Politico that the media was treating Paul unfairly.[76]

Comedian Jon Stewart similarly complained about the lack of coverage, despite Paul polling much better than candidates who received coverage. Stewart presented a montage of mainstream media clips that showed commentators ignoring, and two CNN correspondents admitting to suppressing, coverage of Paul.[77] Will Wilkinson complained[78] in The Economist that if Paul had won the Ames straw poll, it would have been written off as irrelevant, but since Bachmann had won, it was claimed to boost her campaign. Other commentators noted that Paul has had success at past straw polls but has not turned that into broader success as a reason for the relative lack of media attention.[79]

Paul was asked in a Fox News interview "What are they [the media] afraid of?"[80] He answered "They don't want to discuss my views, because I think they're frightened by me challenging the status quo and the establishment." Later, he continued on Piers Morgan Tonight: "They don't want my views out there—they're too dangerous ... We want freedom, and we're challenging the status quo. We want to end the war, we want a gold standard, and their view is that people just can't handle all this freedom."[81]

During the November 12 CBS/National Journal Debate, Paul was allocated 90 seconds speaking time. Paul's campaign responded, saying, "Congressman Paul was only allocated 90 seconds of speaking in one televised hour. If we are to have an authentic national conversation on issues such as security and defense, we can and must do better to ensure that all voices are heard. CBS News, in their arrogance, may think they can choose the next president. Fortunately, the people of Iowa, New Hampshire, and across America get to vote and not the media elites."[82]

Paul Mulshine a columnist with The Star-Ledger noted that the New York Times admitted to suppressing coverage of Paul. He quoted a column by Times editor Arthur Brisbane that said: "Early in the campaign, The Times decided to remain low key in its coverage of Ron Paul, the libertarian Texas congressman."[83][84]

The Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism found in August 2011 that Paul did in fact receive substantially less coverage than other candidates in the 2012 race.[85][86][87][88] Pew released another study in October 2011 confirming that Paul has been receiving disproportionately low coverage in the media. Paul polled 6.0-9.8% during the study period, but only received 2% of media coverage, the lowest of all candidates. It also noted that Paul's coverage among blogs was the most favorable of all candidates.[89] In January 2012, The Atlantic cited the weekly Pew study. They noted that despite steadily rising in the polls, Paul has been losing his share of press coverage, going from 34% in late-December 2011 to about 3% in mid-January 2012. They also noted a sharp drop in positive coverage and a small rise in negative.[90]

Electoral results

January

Paul finished third in the Iowa Republican caucuses, held on January 3, 2012. While all of the votes have not yet been counted, he is behind leader Rick Santorum (24.56%, 29,839 votes), and second-place Mitt Romney (24.54%, 29,805 votes), with 21.43% of the vote (26,036 votes).[91][92] Paul has been projected to receive 7 delegates out of 28, as many as Mitt Romney and one less than Rick Santorum, making him tied for second place in the delegate count at the time.[93][94]

Paul placed second in the New Hampshire Republican primary, held on January 10, with 22.9% of the vote, behind Mitt Romney with 39.4%. He gained 3 delegates from this contest. In the South Carolina Republican primary on January 21, Paul placed fourth and gained no delegates. Paul also gained no delegates in the Florida Republican primary on January 31, after he did little campaigning in the state because of its "winner-take-all" delegate apportionment.

February

Ron Paul support sign on day of the Michigan presidential primary, Ann Arbor

The Nevada Republican caucuses were held on February 4. Paul finished third behind Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney with 18.73% of the votes and 5 of the delegates, behind the winner Romney's 50.02% and Gingrich's 21.10%.[95] The Colorado and Minnesota Republican caucuses were held on February 7. In Colorado, Paul finished fourth with 11.77% behind Santorum (winner with 40.24%), Romney, and Gingrich. In Minnesota, Paul finished 2nd (27.1%) behind winner Rick Santorum (44.9%), with Romney (16.9%) and Gingrich (10.8%) placing 3rd and 4th.[96] A non-binding vote in the Missouri Republican primary was held on February 7 as well, and Paul got 12.2% of the vote. The primary did not apportion any delegates; that will be done at the Missouri caucuses, which are scheduled to begin on March 17.[citation needed]

On February 17, with 95% of precincts in the Maine Republican caucuses reporting, Paul was running second to Mitt Romney with 34.9% of the vote to Romney's 39%.[97] Neither of the frontrunners have pressed for a recount, and the Maine Republican Party's chairman has stated that recounts are impossible due to the votes being physically thrown away.[98]

The Michigan and Arizona Republican primaries were held on February 28. Paul came in third place in Michigan, with 11.9%; and fourth in Arizona, with 8.45%.

March and Super Tuesday

A large portion of the delegates for the Republican National Convention will be awarded in March, which includes the Washington Republican caucuses on March 3 and Super Tuesday on March 6, as well as several other states later in the month. Paul came in second in the Washington caucuses, with 24.81%. On March 10, he picked up one delegate in the U.S Virgin Islands Caucuses while Romney added four delegates to the three super-delegates previously known to support him.[99]

Paul received 1.23% of the vote in the Puerto Rico Republican primary, 2012, coming in sixth in a busy field.[100] [101][102]

On the Tonight Show with Jay Leno, Paul said he forewent Secret Service protection because he considered it "a form of welfare" and he should pay for his protection.[103]

Delegate Count

Since the beginning of the race, the Paul campaign has focused on getting delegates rather than coming first in polls. As more candidates drop out of the race, final delegate counts are slowly revealed for the states where delegates aren't winner-take-all or proportionately allocated. Ron Paul is seen to pick up significantly more delegates than originally predicted, being at least 50% for Washington, Minnesota, and Iowa. Since most delegate counts are not known at this point, Paul has vowed to stay in the race.[104][105]

See also

Endorsements

References

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External links

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