Pre-2012 statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012

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This article is a collection of statewide polls for the United States presidential election, 2012. The polls listed here, by state are from 2009 to December 31, 2011 and provide early data on opinion polling between a possible Republican candidate against incumbent President Barack Obama.

Note: Some states did not conduct polling before December 31, 2011

ArizonaArizona[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 55%–44%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Herman Cain 42% 4 500 ±4.4%
Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 45% Tied
Barack Obama 43% Ron Paul 44% 1
Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 40% 7
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
BRC/Rocky Mountain Poll October 13–24, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Herman Cain 38% 7 581 ±4.1%
45% Mitt Romney 40% 5
44% Rick Perry 38% 6
Public Policy Polling April 28 – May 1, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 40% 7 623 ±3.9%
46% Mike Huckabee 44% 2
49% Sarah Palin 38% 11
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 48% 4
Barack Obama 48% Donald Trump 36% 12
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 46% Tied 599 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 44% Mike Huckabee 48% 4
Barack Obama 49% Sarah Palin 41% 8
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 49% 6
Public Policy Polling September 18–21, 2009 Barack Obama 47% Sarah Palin 47% Tied 617 ±3.9%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 49% 4
43% Mitt Romney 50% 7

ArkansasArkansas[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–45%
(Republican in 2008) 59%–39%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Talk Business-Hendrix College September 15, 2011 Barack Obama 34% Mitt Romney 50% 16 2,101 ±2.1%

CaliforniaCalifornia[edit]

55 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–37%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Field November 15–27, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 40% 10 1,000 ±3.1%
55% Newt Gingrich 35% 20
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 2011 Barack Obama 60% Michele Bachmann 31% 29 500 ±4.4%
61% Herman Cain 32% 29
60% Newt Gingrich 34% 26
57% Ron Paul 32% 25
60% Rick Perry 31% 29
57% Mitt Romney 36% 21
Survey USA
November 10, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 32% 24 800 ±3.5%
50% Mitt Romney 39% 11
Field September 1–12, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 38% 13 1,001 ±3.2%
54% Rick Perry 35% 19
L.A. Times/USC August 17–28, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Rick Perry 32% 24 1,408 ±4.0%
57% Michele Bachmann 31% 26
54% Mitt Romney 35% 19
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 58% Newt Gingrich 34% 24 892 ±3.3%
54% Mike Huckabee 39% 15
62% Sarah Palin 31% 31
56% Mitt Romney 36% 20

ColoradoColorado[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling December 1–4, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 42% 8 793 ±3.5%
52% Herman Cain 36% 16
48% Ron Paul 39% 9
52% Rick Perry 37% 15
47% Mitt Romney 45% 2
Public Policy Polling August 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 39% 12 510 ±4.3%
51% Herman Cain 35% 16
54% Sarah Palin 38% 16
51% Rick Perry 38% 13
48% Mitt Romney 41% 7
Public Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Newt Gingrich 39% 14 517 ±4.3%
51% Mike Huckabee 42% 9
55% Sarah Palin 36% 19
47% Mitt Romney 41% 6

ConnecticutConnecticut[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 Barack Obama 55% Michele Bachmann 36% 19 592 ±4.0%
54% Newt Gingrich 38% 16
53% Rick Perry 41% 12
47% Mitt Romney 45% 2
Quinnipiac September 8–13, 2011 Barack Obama 52% Rick Perry 33% 19 1,230 ±2.8%
49% Mitt Romney 36% 13

FloridaFlorida[edit]

29 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 51%–48%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College December 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 41% 7 2,119 ±2.1%
51% Newt Gingrich 39% 12
49% Ron Paul 36% 13
Quinnipiac November 28 – December 5, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 45% 3 1,226 ±2.8%
Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 44% 2
Public Policy Polling November 28 – December 1, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 700 ±3.7%
50% Newt Gingrich 44% 6
51% Herman Cain 37% 14
46% Rick Perry 40% 6
50% Ron Paul 38% 12
Rasmussen Reports November 17, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 46% 4 500 ±4.5%
Barack Obama 46% Herman Cain 37% 9
45% Newt Gingrich 43% 2
Quinnipiac October 31 – November 7, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Herman Cain 41% 4 1,185 ±2.9%
45% Newt Gingrich 42% 3
46% Rick Perry 40% 6
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 45% 3
Suffolk University October 26–30, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Herman Cain 39% 3 800 ±--%
46% Rick Perry 34% 8
44% Ron Paul 32% 12
45% Newt Gingrich 38% 7
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 42% Tied
NBC News/Marist October 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 41% 6 2,225 ±2.1%
47% Rick Perry 39% 8
45% Mitt Romney 43% 2
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 44% 5 476 ±4.5%
50% Newt Gingrich 42% 8
45% Ron Paul 44% 1
50% Rick Perry 43% 7
46% Mitt Romney 45% 1
Quinnipiac September 14–19, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Rick Perry 42% 2 1,007 ±3.1%
Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 47% 7
Quinnipiac
Margin of error: ±3.6%
Sample size: 743
August 1–2, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 38% 12 743 ±3.6%
53% Sarah Palin 34% 19
44% Rick Perry 39% 5
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied
Quinnipiac July 27–31, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 36% 14 674 ±3.8%
54% Sarah Palin 33% 21
49% Rick Perry 36% 13
46% Mitt Romney 41% 5
Sunshine State News/VSS July 5–7, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 46% 4 1,000 LV ±3.10%
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 40% 9 848 ±3.4%
48% Herman Cain 37% 11
52% Sarah Palin 40% 12
48% Tim Pawlenty 40% 8
47% Mitt Romney 43% 4
Suffolk University/7 News April 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 43% 1 600 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 44% Mike Huckabee 41% 3
41% Tim Pawlenty 28% 13
45% Michele Bachmann 30% 15
47% Newt Gingrich 36% 11
52% Sarah Palin 34% 18
49% Donald Trump 34% 15
47% Haley Barbour 26% 17
48% Ron Paul 30% 18
Mason-Dixon April 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 48% 5 800 ±3.5%
44% Mike Huckabee 49% 5
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 39% 12
48% Donald Trump 40% 8
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 42% 8 500 ±4.4%
50% Mike Huckabee 43% 7
52% Sarah Palin 39% 13
46% Mitt Romney 44% 2
48% Jeb Bush 45% 3
48% Rudy Giuliani 42% 6
Public Policy Polling December 17–20, 2010 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 42% 5 1,034 ±3.0%
49% Mike Huckabee 44% 5
52% Sarah Palin 38% 14
46% Mitt Romney 44% 2
48% Marco Rubio 40% 8

Georgia (U.S. state)Georgia[edit]

16 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Mason Dixon December 12–14, 2011 Barack Obama 41% Newt Gingrich 50% 9 625 ±4.0%
38% Mitt Romney 55% 17
Survey USA December 6–7, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Newt Gingrich 48% 6 1,176 ±2.9%
42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
Public Policy Polling March 31 – April 3, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 45% 1 790 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 48% 3
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 43% 5
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 3
Barack Obama 44% Herman Cain 39% 5

HawaiiHawaii[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 72%–27%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling October 13–16, 2011 Barack Obama 64% Michele Bachmann 28% 36 568 ±4.1%
63% Herman Cain 30% 33
64% Newt Gingrich 27% 37
63% Rick Perry 28% 35
59% Mitt Romney 32% 27

IllinoisIllinois[edit]

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 55%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Paul Simon Public Policy Institute October 11–16, 2011 Barack Obama 46.1% Mitt Romney 38.5% 7.6 1,000 ±3.0%
49.3% Ron Paul 30.3% 19

IowaIowa[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College November 27–29, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 37% 11 1,393 ±2.6%
46% Mitt Romney 39% 7
54% Michele Bachmann 31% 23
47% Newt Gingrich 37% 10
50% Herman Cain 32% 18
Barack Obama 42% Ron Paul 42% Tied
Public Policy Polling October 7–10, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 39% 10 749 ±3.6%
47% Herman Cain 41% 6
50% Newt Gingrich 39% 11
47% Ron Paul 40% 7
49% Rick Perry 39% 10
46% Mitt Romney 42% 4
NBC News-Marist College October 3–5, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Rick Perry 37% 9 2,836 ±1.8%
43% Mitt Romney 40% 3
Public Policy Polling August 19–21, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 34% 17 798 ±3.5%
51% Herman Cain 33% 18
54% Sarah Palin 33% 21
51% Rick Perry 38% 13
49% Mitt Romney 39% 10
Mason-Dixon July 5–7, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 46% 1 629 ±3.9%
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 47% 3
Public Policy Polling May 27–30, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 32% 18 1,387 ±2.6%
54% Newt Gingrich 33% 21
55% Sarah Palin 35% 20
49% Tim Pawlenty 37% 12
49% Mitt Romney 40% 9
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 39% 11 1,109 ±2.9%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 45% Tied
Barack Obama 53% Sarah Palin 36% 17
45% Mitt Romney 41% 4
51% Donald Trump 35% 16
Public Policy Polling January 7–9, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 38% 13 1,077 ±3.0%
47% Mike Huckabee 43% 4
53% Sarah Palin 37% 16
47% Mitt Romney 41% 6

KansasKansas[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 62%–37%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Survey USA November 10, 2011 Barack Obama 35% Newt Gingrich 52% 17 800 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 31% Mitt Romney 56% 25

KentuckyKentucky[edit]

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–40%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–41%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 25–28, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Michele Bachmann 46% 3 600 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 44% 3
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 44% 4
Barack Obama 42% Rick Perry 49% 7
Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 48% 8

LouisianaLouisiana[edit]

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 57%–42%
(Republican in 2008) 59%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Clarus Research October 5–7, 2011 Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 53% 16 602 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 37% Rick Perry 52% 15
Public Policy Polling July 17–19, 2009 Barack Obama 42% Sarah Palin 49% 7 727 ±3.6%
Barack Obama 40% Bobby Jindal 54% 14

MaineMaine[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling October 28–31, 2011 Barack Obama 55% Michele Bachmann 35% 20 673 ±3.8%
54% Herman Cain 37% 17
55% Newt Gingrich 35% 20
55% Rick Perry 34% 21
49% Mitt Romney 38% 11
Critical Insights October 18–23, 2011 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 40% 1 600 ±4.0%
46% Rick Perry 32% 14
Public Policy Polling March 3–6, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Newt Gingrich 37% 16 1,247 ±2.8%
51% Mike Huckabee 39% 12
57% Sarah Palin 35% 22
49% Mitt Romney 41% 8

MassachusettsMassachusetts[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 62%–37%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–36%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
YouGov America/University
of Massachusetts Amherst
November 9–22, 2011 Barack Obama 54% Rick Perry 23% 31 Varies[1] Varies
Barack Obama 51% Herman Cain 28% 23
Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 34% 15
Public Policy Polling September 16–18, 2011 Barack Obama 59% Michele Bachmann 28% 31 791 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 58% Newt Gingrich 31% 27
Barack Obama 55% Ron Paul 30% 25
Barack Obama 58% Rick Perry 32% 26
Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 40% 13
Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2011 Barack Obama 60% Herman Cain 27% 33 957 ±3.2%
Barack Obama 63% Newt Gingrich 27% 36
Barack Obama 63% Sarah Palin 27% 36
Barack Obama 59% Tim Pawlenty 28% 31
Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 37% 20
Public Policy Polling November 29 – December 1, 2010 Barack Obama 57% Newt Gingrich 33% 24 500 ±4.4%
Barack Obama 57% Mike Huckabee 33% 24
Barack Obama 61% Sarah Palin 32% 29
Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 43% 9

MichiganMichigan[edit]

16 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–41%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA November 13–16, 2011 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 46% 5 600 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 40% 5
Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 36% 14
Survey USA October 12–14, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Michele Bachmann 30% 26 500 ±4.5%
Barack Obama 53% Herman Cain 32% 21
Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 31% 23
Barack Obama 53% Rick Perry 32% 21
Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 39% 11
Inside Michigan/MRG Sept 14–19, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 39% 11 600 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Michele Bachmann 37% 16 593 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 33% 17
Barack Obama 54% Sarah Palin 36% 18
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 35% 15
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5
Barack Obama 50% Thaddeus McCotter 31% 19
EPIC-MRA July 9–11, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 46% 4 600 ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling March 18–20, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Newt Gingrich 37% 16 502 ±4.4%
Barack Obama 50% Mike Huckabee 41% 9
Barack Obama 55% Sarah Palin 35% 20
Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 41% 7
Barack Obama 52% Scott Walker 32% 20
Public Policy Polling December 3–6, 2010 Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 37% 15 1,224 ±2.8%
Barack Obama 51% Mike Huckabee 39% 12
Barack Obama 56% Sarah Palin 35% 21
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4
Barack Obama 49% Rick Snyder 38% 11

MinnesotaMinnesota[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Survey USA November 2–6, 2011 Barack Obama 57% Michele Bachmann 29% 28 543 ±4.3%
Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 35% 13
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 35% 13
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 39% 6
Survey USA June 15–17, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Michele Bachmann 39% 14 558 ±4.2%
Barack Obama 46% Tim Pawlenty 46% Tied
Public Policy Polling May 27–30, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Michele Bachmann 35% 21 1,179 ±2.9%
Barack Obama 51% Herman Cain 30% 21
Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 36% 18
Barack Obama 56% Sarah Palin 36% 20
Barack Obama 51% Tim Pawlenty 43% 8
Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 36% 15
Public Policy Polling December 4–5, 2010 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 38% 13 949 ±3.2%
Barack Obama 50% Mike Huckabee 40% 10
Barack Obama 54% Sarah Palin 36% 18
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5
Barack Obama 51% Tim Pawlenty 43% 8
St. Cloud State University Survey October 24 – November 4, 2009 Barack Obama 49% Tim Pawlenty 40% 9 550 ±5.0%
Public Policy Polling July 7–8, 2009 Barack Obama 56% Sarah Palin 35% 21 1,491 ±2.5%
Barack Obama 51% Tim Pawlenty 40% 11

MississippiMississippi[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 59%–40%
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling November 4–6, 2011 Barack Obama 40% Michele Bachmann 52% 12 796 ±3.5%
37% Herman Cain 54% 17
38% Newt Gingrich 54% 16
37% Ron Paul 52% 15
38% Rick Perry 55% 17
36% Mitt Romney 54% 18
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Newt Gingrich 48% 6 817 ±3.4%
40% Mike Huckabee 54% 14
44% Sarah Palin 48% 4
40% Mitt Romney 46% 6
41% Haley Barbour 51% 10

MissouriMissouri[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 53%–46%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–49%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports November 9, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 39% 8 500 ±4.5%
Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 43% 4
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 45% 3
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 43% 4 632 ±3.9%
Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 45% 2
Barack Obama 45% Rick Perry 47% 2
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 47% 4
Public Policy Polling April 28 – May 1, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 44% 2 555 ±3.9%
Barack Obama 44% Mike Huckabee 49% 5
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 43% 5
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 45% 2
Barack Obama 46% Donald Trump 41% 5
Public Policy Polling March 3–6, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 44% Tied 612 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 43% Mike Huckabee 49% 6
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 43% 5
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 44% 1
Public Policy Polling November 29 – December 1, 2010 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 45% 1 515 ±4.3%
Barack Obama 42% Mike Huckabee 49% 7
Barack Obama 46% Sarah Palin 43% 3
Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 47% 6

MontanaMontana[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 59%–39%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Herman Cain 45% 2 1,625 ±2.4%
42% Newt Gingrich 50% 8
40% Ron Paul 48% 8
40% Mitt Romney 50% 10
43% Rick Perry 46% 3
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Michele Bachmann 48% 6 819 ±3.4%
41% Herman Cain 46% 5
44% Sarah Palin 48% 4
41% Tim Pawlenty 45% 4
41% Mitt Romney 49% 8
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 46% 2 1,176 ±2.9%
41% Mike Huckabee 51% 10
45% Sarah Palin 47% 2
39% Mitt Romney 50% 11

NebraskaNebraska[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 66%–33%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2011 Barack Obama 41% Michele Bachmann 49% 8 739 ±3.6%
Barack Obama 41% Newt Gingrich 48% 7
Barack Obama 41% Rick Perry 48% 7
Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 51% 13
Public Policy Polling January 26–27, 2011 Barack Obama 40% Newt Gingrich 48% 8 977 ±3.1%
Barack Obama 38% Mike Huckabee 51% 13
Barack Obama 44% Sarah Palin 45% 1
Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 49% 12

NevadaNevada[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 55%–43%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Las Vegas Review Journal/University of Nevada December 12–20, 2011 Barack Obama 45.7% Mitt Romney 39.8% 5.9 600 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 45.4% Ron Paul 35.7% 9.7
Barack Obama 47.3% Newt Gingrich 35.4% 11.9
Barack Obama 50.2% Michele Bachmann 27.1% 23.1
Barack Obama 48.8% Jon Huntsman 30.1% 18.7
Barack Obama 50.8% Rick Perry 31.1% 19.7
Barack Obama 49.3% Rick Santorum 30.9% 18.4
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 41% 8 500 ±4.4%
Barack Obama 49% Herman Cain 46% 3
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 46% 3
Barack Obama 51% Rick Perry 41% 10
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 46% Tied
Public Policy Polling July 28–31, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 40% 10 601 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 39% 9
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 39% 12
Barack Obama 49% Rick Perry 40% 9
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1
Public Policy Polling April 21–24, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 42% 4 491 ±4.4%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 43% 2
Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 39% 11
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 3
Barack Obama 47% Donald Trump 41% 6
Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 40% 11 932 ±3.2%
Barack Obama 51% Mike Huckabee 41% 10
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 39% 13
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1

New HampshireNew Hampshire[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College November 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Rick Perry 36% 15 1,144 ±2.9%
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 3
Barack Obama 53% Michele Bachmann 33% 20
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 39% 10
Barack Obama 53% Herman Cain 30% 23
Barack Obama 44% Ron Paul 42% 2
University of New Hampshire/WMUR November 15–20, 2011
Barack Obama 54% Rick Perry 35% 19 665 ±3.8%
Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 40% 12
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 47% 3
NBC News-Marist Poll October 3–5, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Rick Perry 40% 6 2,218 ±2.1%
Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 49% 9
Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011
Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 42% 7 662 ±3.8%
Barack Obama 49% Herman Cain 39% 10
Barack Obama 53% Sarah Palin 38% 15
Barack Obama 48% Tim Pawlenty 41% 7
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2
New Hampshire University June 21 – July 1, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 47% 4 773 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 47% Tim Pawlenty 38% 11
Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 41% 6
Public Policy Polling March 31 – April 3, 2011 Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 39% 13 769 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 52% Mike Huckabee 38% 14
Barack Obama 56% Sarah Palin 34% 22
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1
Barack Obama 51% Donald Trump 37% 14
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies February 9–10, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 789 ±3.49%
Barack Obama 57% Sarah Palin 34% 23
Barack Obama 51% Mike Huckabee 38% 13
Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 33% 23

New JerseyNew Jersey[edit]

14 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 52%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling January 6–9, 2011
Barack Obama 55% Chris Christie 38% 17 520 ±4.3%
Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 37% 17
Barack Obama 53% Mike Huckabee 36% 17
Barack Obama 59% Sarah Palin 29% 30
Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 37% 15

New MexicoNew Mexico[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling December 11–13, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 39% 17 500 ±4.4%
56% Michele Bachmann 36% 20
51% Ron Paul 38% 13
53% Mitt Romney 38% 15
56% Rick Perry 35% 21
Public Policy Polling June 23–26, 2011 Barack Obama 52% Michele Bachmann 37% 15 732 ±3.6%
52% Herman Cain 36% 16
46% Gary Johnson 43% 3
56% Sarah Palin 36% 20
51% Tim Pawlenty 36% 15
49% Mitt Romney 42% 7
Public Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 35% 21 545 ±4.2%
55% Mike Huckabee 36% 19
51% Gary Johnson 36% 15
62% Sarah Palin 33% 29
53% Mitt Romney 37% 16

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic  % Republican  % Libertarian  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 28% Gary Johnson 20% 17 500 ±4.4%
44% Mitt Romney 27% Gary Johnson 23% 17

New YorkNew York[edit]

29 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 58%–40%
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–36%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Siena College November 8–13, 2011 Barack Obama 63% Herman Cain 27% 36 803 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 63% Rick Perry 28% 35
Barack Obama 59% Mitt Romney 34% 25
Barack Obama 64% Michele Bachmann 27% 37
Barack Obama 60% Ron Paul 31% 29
Marist College October 25–27, 2011 Barack Obama 62% Herman Cain 31% 31 1,030 ±3.0%
Barack Obama 64% Rick Perry 29% 35
Barack Obama 59% Mitt Romney 35% 24
Siena College October 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 58% Herman Cain 32% 26 800 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 58% Rick Perry 31% 27
Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 37% 18

North CarolinaNorth Carolina[edit]

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling December 1–4, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 37% 13 865 ±3.3%
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 45% 4
Barack Obama 47% Ron Paul 42% 5
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 42% 8
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 46% Tied
Public Policy Polling October 27–31, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 42% 8 615 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 44% 3
Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 43% 7
Barack Obama 48% Ron Paul 40% 8
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 42% 8
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 46% 1
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 3, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 42% 7 760 ±3.6%
Barack Obama 45% Chris Christie 46% 1
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 42% 7
Barack Obama 46% Ron Paul 43% 3
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 44% 4
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1
Public Policy Polling September 1–4, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 45% 2 520 ±4.3%
Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 43% 5
Barack Obama 49% Sarah Palin 42% 7
Barack Obama 46% Rick Perry 46% Tied
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1
Public Policy Polling August 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 40% 10 780 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 37% 13
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 39% 13
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 40% 8
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3
Public Policy Polling July 7–10, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Michele Bachmann 43% 3 651 ±3.8%
Barack Obama 46% Herman Cain 42% 4
Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 42% 8
Barack Obama 46% Tim Pawlenty 41% 5
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied
Public Policy Polling June 8–11, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 37% 11 563 ±4.1%
Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 40% 10
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 38% 14
Barack Obama 47% Tim Pawlenty 40% 7
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1
Public Policy Polling May 12–15, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 42% 8 835 ±3.4%
Barack Obama 47% Mike Huckabee 46% 1
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 40% 12
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3
Barack Obama 52% Donald Trump 35% 17
Public Policy Polling April 14–17, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 45% 4 507 ±4.4%
Barack Obama 48% Mike Huckabee 47% 1
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 40% 12
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 44% 3
Barack Obama 51% Donald Trump 39% 12
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 42% 5 584 ±4.1%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 45% Tied
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 40% 11
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 42% 2
Public Policy Polling February 16–21, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 44% 4 650 ±3.8%
Barack Obama 46% Mike Huckabee 47% 1
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 41% 10
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 44% 3
Public Policy Polling January 20–23, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 44% 6 575 ±4.1%
Barack Obama 49% Mike Huckabee 45% 4
Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 41% 9
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 44% 3
Public Policy Polling December 17–19, 2010 Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 42% 6 520 ±4.3%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 46% 1
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 38% 14
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3
Public Policy Polling November 19–21, 2010 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 45% 1 517 ±4.3%
Barack Obama 44% Mike Huckabee 48% 4
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 43% 5
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied
Public Policy Polling July 10–12, 2009 Barack Obama 49% Sarah Palin 42% 7 767 ±3.5%

OhioOhio[edit]

18 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Quinnipiac November 28 – December 5, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 43% 1 1,437 ±2.6%
Barack Obama 42% Newt Gingrich 43% 1
Quinnipiac October 31 – November 7, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 38% 10 1,312 ±2.7%
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 37% 12
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 36% 12
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 42% 3
Public Policy Polling November 4–6, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 37% 14 1,022 ±3.1%
Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 39% 11
Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 38% 13
Barack Obama 50% Ron Paul 36% 14
Barack Obama 53% Rick Perry 36% 17
Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 41% 9
Quinnipiac October 17–23, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 36% 11 1,668 ±2.4%
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4
Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 39% 8
Public Policy Polling October 13–16, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 40% 9 581 ±4.1%
Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 45% 3
Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 40% 11
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 41% 9
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 46% Tied
Quinnipiac September 22–25, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Rick Perry 41% 3 1,301 ±2.7%
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 42% 2
Public Policy Polling August 11–14, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Michele Bachmann 41% 7 792 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 39% 8
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 38% 13
Barack Obama 45% Rick Perry 41% 4
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 43% 2
Quinnipiac July 12–18, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 36% 13 563 ±4.1%
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 35% 16
Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 35% 12
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4
Public Policy Polling March 10–13, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 38% 12 559 ±4.1%
Barack Obama 48% Mike Huckabee 41% 7
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 36% 16
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 40% 6
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2010 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 41% 6 510 ±4.3%
Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 44% 1
Barack Obama 49% Sarah Palin 42% 7
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 42% 2

OregonOregon[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling/
Daily Kos/SEIU
December 13–14, 2011 Barack Obama 55% Newt Gingrich 37% 18 979 ±3.1%
53% Mitt Romney 40% 13
Survey USA November 18–21, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 37% 14 528 ±4.4%
48% Mitt Romney 40% 8
Public Policy Polling June 19–21, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Michele Bachmann 35% 18 701 ±3.7%
53% Herman Cain 32% 21
57% Sarah Palin 35% 22
52% Tim Pawlenty 34% 18
50% Mitt Romney 38% 12

PennsylvaniaPennsylvania[edit]

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call November 28 – December 7, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4 447 ±5%
52% Newt Gingrich 35% 17
48% Rick Perry 30% 18
55% Herman Cain 28% 27
Quinnipiac November 28 – December 5, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3 1,453 ±2.6%
48% Newt Gingrich 40% 8
Public Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Herman Cain 35% 18 500 ±4.4%
49% Newt Gingrich 43% 6
46% Ron Paul 42% 4
51% Rick Perry 38% 13
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied
Barack Obama 47% Rick Santorum 42% 5
Survey USA November 10, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 40% 7 800 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied
Quinnipiac October 31 – November 7, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Herman Cain 38% 10 1,436 ±2.6%
48% Newt Gingrich 38% 10
47% Rick Perry 38% 9
44% Mitt Romney 43% 1
Franklin & Marshall College October 24–30, 2011 Barack Obama 38% Herman Cain 24% 14 525 ±4.3%
40% Rick Perry 20% 20
35% Mitt Romney 26% 9
38% Rick Santorum 25% 13
Quinnipiac September 21–26, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Rick Perry 40% 6 1,370 ±2.7%
45% Mitt Romney 43% 2
45% Rick Santorum 42% 3
Franklin & Marshall College August 22–29, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Michele Bachmann 23% 19 525 ±4.3%
38% Rick Perry 27% 11
36% Mitt Romney 30% 6
Quinnipiac July 25–31, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 39% 8 1,358 ±2.7%
45% Rick Perry 39% 6
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 44% 2
Barack Obama 45% Rick Santorum 43% 2
Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 43% 7 545 ±4.2%
49% Herman Cain 37% 12
53% Sarah Palin 39% 14
47% Tim Pawlenty 39% 8
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied
Barack Obama 50% Rick Santorum 40% 10
Quinnipiac June 7–12, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 40% 7 1,277 ±2.7%
49% Rick Santorum 38% 11
Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 39% 8 593 ±4.0%
45% Mike Huckabee 44% 1
50% Sarah Palin 39% 11
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 43% 1
Barack Obama 45% Rick Santorum 43% 2
Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 40% 10 547 ±4.2%
47% Mike Huckabee 44% 3
51% Sarah Palin 36% 15
46% Mitt Romney 42% 4
48% Rick Santorum 40% 8

Rhode IslandRhode Island[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 59%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–35%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling February 16–22, 2011 Barack Obama 60% Newt Gingrich 27% 33 544 ±4.2%
Barack Obama 56% Mike Huckabee 31% 25
Barack Obama 65% Sarah Palin 24% 41
Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 37% 17

South CarolinaSouth Carolina[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College December 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 42% 3 2,107 ±2.1%
Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 42% 4
Barack Obama 47% Ron Paul 37% 10
NBC News/Marist October 10–12, 2011
Barack Obama 42% Herman Cain 44% 2 2,131 ±2.1%
Barack Obama 42% Rick Perry 43% 1
Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 46% 6
Public Policy Polling August 25–28, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Michele Bachmann 44% Tied 587 ±4.0%
Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 45% 1
Barack Obama 45% Sarah Palin 45% Tied
Barack Obama 41% Rick Perry 49% 8
Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 53% 15
Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Herman Cain 40% 3 741 ±3.6%
Barack Obama 44% Jim DeMint 47% 3
Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 44% 2
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 43% 5
Barack Obama 42% Tim Pawlenty 42% Tied
Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 50% 9
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 43% 1 1,167 ±2.9%
Barack Obama 43% Mike Huckabee 49% 6
Barack Obama 47% Sarah Palin 41% 6
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
Barack Obama 45% Jim DeMint 47% 2

South DakotaSouth Dakota[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 42% 2 1,045 ±3.0%
Barack Obama 41% Mike Huckabee 47% 6
Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 40% 8
Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 46% 6
Barack Obama 37% John Thune 57% 20

TennesseeTennessee[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 57%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Vanderbilt University October 28 – November 5, 2011 Barack Obama 39% Rick Perry 40% 1 1,423 ±2.6%
Barack Obama 37% Herman Cain 41% 4
Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 42% 4
Vanderbilt University June 3–8, 2011 Barack Obama 38% Michele Bachmann 27% 11 700 ±3.7%
Barack Obama 38% Newt Gingrich 26% 12
Barack Obama 43% Sarah Palin 29% 14
Barack Obama 37% Tim Pawlenty 28% 9
Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 35% 2
Public Policy Polling February 9–13, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Newt Gingrich 46% 3 500 ±4.4%
Barack Obama 41% Mike Huckabee 53% 12
Barack Obama 45% Sarah Palin 45% Tied
Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 48% 7
FRONTPAGE Vanderbilt University January 14–16, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Sarah Palin 37% 5 710 ±3.3%

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic candidate  % Republican  % Third party/independent  % Lead margin
Vanderbilt University
October 28 – November 5, 2011 Barack Obama 34% Rick Perry 27% "a qualified Independent candidate" 23% 7
38% Herman Cain 30% "a qualified Independent candidate" 18% 8
36% Mitt Romney 25% "a qualified Independent candidate" 23% 11
33% Mitt Romney 28% Michael Bloomberg 14% 5
34% Mitt Romney 28% Warren Buffett 18% 6
38% Mitt Romney 35% Alec Baldwin 8% 3

TexasTexas[edit]

38 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 61%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 55%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
University of Texas/Texas Tribune/YouGov October 19–26, 2011 Barack Obama 33% Ron Paul 38% 5 800 ±3.46%
Barack Obama 35% Herman Cain 40% 5
Barack Obama 34% Mitt Romney 36% 2
Barack Obama 37% Rick Perry 45% 8
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Michele Bachmann 47% 3 795 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 43% Herman Cain 43% Tied
Barack Obama 46% Sarah Palin 44% 2
Barack Obama 43% Tim Pawlenty 44% 1
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 50% 8
Barack Obama 40% Ron Paul 45% 5
Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 45% 2
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Newt Gingrich 48% 5 892 ±3.3%
Barack Obama 39% Mike Huckabee 55% 16
Barack Obama 46% Sarah Palin 47% 1
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
Barack Obama 45% Rick Perry 45% Tied
University of Texas June 11–22, 2009 Barack Obama 34% Mitt Romney 39% 5 924 ±3.22%

UtahUtah[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 72%–26%
(Republican in 2008) 62%–34%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling July 8–10, 2011 Barack Obama 35% Michele Bachmann 49% 14 732 ±3.6%
36% Herman Cain 43% 7
23% Jon Huntsman 63% 40
41% Sarah Palin 43% 2
34% Tim Pawlenty 45% 11
31% Mitt Romney 63% 32
Salt Lake Tribune April 26–28, 2010 Barack Obama 22% Mitt Romney 73% 51 400 ±5.0%
32% Sarah Palin 53% 22
31% Ron Paul 48% 17
Dan Jones Poll April 29, 2009 Barack Obama 27% Mitt Romney 67% 40 254 ±6.2%
25% Jon Huntsman 58% 33

VermontVermont[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 59%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 67%–30%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling July 28–31, 2011 Barack Obama 58% Michele Bachmann 30% 28 1,233 ±2.8%
58% Herman Cain 26% 32
53% Mike Huckabee 36% 17
62% Sarah Palin 28% 34
57% Rick Perry 28% 29
54% Mitt Romney 34% 20

VirginiaVirginia[edit]

13 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 53%–46%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Quinnipiac December 13–19, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 41% 5 1,135 ±2.9%
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 44% 2
Public Policy Polling December 11–13, 2011 Barack Obama 52% Michele Bachmann 39% 13 600 ±4%
Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 43% 7
Barack Obama 48% Ron Paul 40% 8
Barack Obama 51% Rick Perry 41% 10
Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6
Quinnipiac October 3–9, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Herman Cain 43% 2 1,459 ±2.6%
Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 42% 5
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1
CNU/Times-Dispatch October 3–8, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Rick Perry 43% Tied 1,027 ±3.1%
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 46% 4
Roanoke College September 6–17, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Michele Bachmann 35% 9 601 ±4%
Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 31% 19
Barack Obama 43% Ron Paul 33% 10
Barack Obama 40% Rick Perry 42% 2
Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 45% 8
Quinnipiac September 7–12, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Michele Bachmann 37% 11 1,368 ±2.7%
Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 35% 15
Barack Obama 44% Rick Perry 42% 2
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 44% 2
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 40% 9 500 ±4.4%
Barack Obama 49% Herman Cain 38% 11
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 37% 14
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 39% 9
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4
Public Policy Polling May 5–8, 2011 Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 37% 17 547 ±4.2%
Barack Obama 52% Mike Huckabee 43% 9
Barack Obama 55% Sarah Palin 40% 15
Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 40% 11
Barack Obama 54% Donald Trump 32% 22
Barack Obama 51% Bob McDonnell 43% 8
The Washington Post[2] May 2–4, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 44% 7 503 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 53% Mike Huckabee 34% 9
Barack Obama 55% Tim Pawlenty 35% 20
Barack Obama 61% Donald Trump 30% 31
Barack Obama 61% Sarah Palin 30% 31
The Washington Post[2] April 28 – May 1, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 46% 2 677 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 50% Mike Huckabee 46% 4
Barack Obama 51% Tim Pawlenty 38% 13
Barack Obama 54% Donald Trump 35% 19
Barack Obama 55% Sarah Palin 36% 19
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 39% 12 524 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 51% Mike Huckabee 43% 8
Barack Obama 54% Sarah Palin 35% 19
Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 551 ±4.2%
Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 40% 11
Barack Obama 49% Mike Huckabee 44% 5
Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 41% 11

Washington (state)Washington[edit]

12 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Survey USA November 21–23, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 37% 19 549 ±4.3%
Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 41% 8
University of Washington October 10–30, 2011 Barack Obama 54% Rick Perry 41% 13 938 ±3.2%
Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 41% 9
Strategies 360 September 11–14, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Rick Perry 37% 14 500 ±4.4%
Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 40% 9
Public Policy Polling May 12–15, 2011 Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 36% 18 1098 ±3.0%
Barack Obama 53% Mike Huckabee 39% 14
Barack Obama 57% Sarah Palin 34% 23
Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 40% 11
Barack Obama 58% Donald Trump 31% 27

West VirginiaWest Virginia[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling September 30–
October 2, 2011
Barack Obama 37% Michele Bachmann 52% 15 932 ±3.2%
Barack Obama 36% Newt Gingrich 51% 15
Barack Obama 34% Ron Paul 48% 14
Barack Obama 36% Rick Perry 52% 16
Barack Obama 33% Mitt Romney 54% 21
Public Policy Polling September 1–4, 2011 Barack Obama 39% Michele Bachmann 48% 9 708 ±3.7%
Barack Obama 40% Newt Gingrich 45% 5
Barack Obama 42% Sarah Palin 45% 3
Barack Obama 38% Rick Perry 49% 11
Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 49% 12
Public Policy Polling January 20–23, 2011 Barack Obama 39% Newt Gingrich 49% 10 1105 ±2.9%
Barack Obama 36% Mike Huckabee 54% 18
Barack Obama 42% Sarah Palin 46% 4
Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 50% 13

WisconsinWisconsin[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 56%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
WRPI October 18–26, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 31% 19 605 ±4%
Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 30% 18
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 35% 11
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 40% 11 1,170 ±2.9%
Barack Obama 49% Herman Cain 42% 7
Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 38% 14
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 39% 11
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 39% 12 830 ±3.4%
Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 36% 14
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 40% 12
Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 40% 10
Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Newt Gingrich 35% 18 1,636 ±2.4%
Barack Obama 55% Sarah Palin 36% 19
Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 39% 12
Barack Obama 50% Paul Ryan 43% 7
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 39% 12 768 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 48% Mike Huckabee 41% 7
Barack Obama 54% Sarah Palin 35% 19
Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 38% 10
Barack Obama 49% Paul Ryan 40% 9
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2010 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 41% 9 702 ±3.7%
Barack Obama 47% Mike Huckabee 41% 6
Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 38% 14
Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 42% 4
Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 42% 5 500 ±4.5%
Barack Obama 42% Rick Perry 46% 4
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4


See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ The sample size for Obama vs Perry was 222, the sample size for Obama vs Cain was 228 and the sample size for Obama vs Romney was 446
  2. ^ a b Interviews conducted after the news of Osama bin Laden's killing.