2008 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary
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The 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary on January 8, 2008 was the first primary in the United States in 2008. Its purpose was to determine the number of delegates from New Hampshire that would represent a certain candidate at the National Convention. In a primary, members of a political party—in this case, the Democratic Party—will select the candidates to a subsequent election. Since 1920, New Hampshire has always hosted the first primaries in the entire nation. The Democratic Party's primary occurred on the same day as the Republican primary.[1]
Hillary Clinton was the winner of the popular vote in the primary, with Barack Obama trailing in second. Clinton and Obama get an equal number of delegates to the National Convention since the percentages of their votes were close.
Scheduling and process
New Hampshire hosts the first primary in the entire nation. A state law that was passed in 1975 required that the date be set at least one week before any other similar contest. The Iowa caucuses are the only delegate-choosing event before the New Hampshire primary, but since Iowa hosts caucuses, not primaries, that is not seen as violating the law.[1]
Any registered voter may participate in New Hampshire's primary. Voters must declare a party affiliation so that they could participate in only one primary every year, not both the Democratic and Republican primaries. The voters will elect delegates to the district-level events; a candidate will only receive delegates to the national convention if he or she receives at least 15% of the district voters' votes. 30 delegates will be proportionally sent to the national convention.[1]
Delegate allocation
Any votes cast for a candidate that did not meet the 15% threshold for votes will be discarded. 14 district delegates will be proportionally allocated to each viable presidential candidate based on the primary's results in each Congressional District.[2] All of the district delegates are considered pledged delegates, which means that they must openly commit to a candidate before the vote and are subject to review by the candidate they represent.[3] Both the First Congressional District and Second Congressional District are allocated 7 district delegates each. These delegates independently represent each Congressional District; they are not affected by the results of the entire state.[2]
In addition, there are 8 more pledged delegates that are allocated based on the results of the statewide primary. Five of them would be at-large delegates to the national convention.[2] These at-large delegates are usually selected by district-level delegates.[3] The other 3 pledged delegates will be Party Leaders and Elected Official (PLEO) delegates.[2] PLEO delegates usually consist of members of the Democratic National Committee, Democratic members of Congress, Democratic Governors, and former [[Democratic Party (United States}|Democratic Party]] leaders.[3]
While the 14 didstrict delegates and 8 statewide delegates are pledged to represent a candidate, 8 more National Convention delegates will be considered unpledged. 7 of them are additional PLEO delegates, which consist of 4 Democratic National Committee members, 2 members of Congress, and 1 Governor. An additional unpledged delegate will be considered the add-on delegate. The add-on delegate is selected by a committee of district-level delegates.[2]
Pre-primary polling, predictions, and events
Five days before the New Hampshire primary, candidates competed at caucuses in Iowa. Barack Obama hoped that he would win these primaries the same way he defeated Hillary Clinton at the Iowa caucuses. Since his victory, he has attracted several supporters, which increased his chances at winning this primary.[4] Likewise, Clinton was struggling to overcome setbacks after she came in third place at the caucuses in Iowa.[5] A series of pre-primary polls showed that Obama enjoyed a significant lead. Clinton was coming second, and John Edwards third.[4] Average polling during the period of January 5 to January 7, 2008 by Real Clear Politics indicated Obama's support at 38.3%, Clinton at 30.0%, Edwards at 18.3%, and Richardson at 5.7%. These results indicated an 8.3% lead for Obama.[6]
On the other hand, a USA Today/Gallup poll indicated that Barack Obama enjoyed a 13 point lead over Hillary Clinton three weeks after they were tied in the pre-primary polls at New Hampshire. Even back in December 2007, Clinton was leading in the polls with 47%, and Obama had 26%. Clinton's aides responded to this by saying that she has the money to continue a national campaign. Former President Bill Clinton's campaign failed in the first five state primaries and caucuses when he ran in 1992. Despite these circumstances, Bill Clinton not only won the Democratic nomination, but he won the election.[5]
The USA Today/Gallup poll was held on January 4, 2008. The conductors of this poll surveyed 778 New Hampshire residents who most-likely were going to attend the Democratic primaries. The survey was conducted after news from the Iowa caucuses had been reported. In the following table, the candidates' support on January 4 is compared with the results of the USA Today/Gallup poll from mid-December of 2007 in New Hampshire.
| Candidate | Percentage (December) | Percentage (January) |
|---|---|---|
| Barack Obama | 32% | 41% |
| Hillary Clinton | 32% | 28% |
| John Edwards | 18% | 19% |
| Bill Richardson | 8% | 6% |
No other candidate had higher than 3% support in New Hampshire. Each figure has a margin of error of ±4%. Obama's 13-point lead was outside that margin.[7]
A US Census in 2006 reported that the population of New Hampshire was 1,314,895. 356,897 did not declare a party affiliation.[8] These independent voters make up 44 percent of the New Hampshire electorate and could have voted in either the Democratic primary or the Republican Party's primary, but couldn't have voted in both. Democratic voters made up a smaller proportion.[9] 216,005 people have registered as a Democrat. These statistics are important because in 2004, the New Hampshire independents leaned towards the Democratic side in favor of then-candidate John Kerry. Since then, New Hampshire has become more Democratic, replacing their Republican governor and state legislature with a government led by Democratic politicians. However, the people of New Hampshire are divided into several smaller regions, so the entire state as a whole wouldn't have been expected to act in a uniform manner.[8]
Results
The following are the results of the New Hampshire Democratic primary, as certified by the New Hampshire Secretary of State.[10]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillary Clinton | 112,610 | 39.4% | 9 |
| Barack Obama | 105,007 | 36.74% | 9 |
| John Edwards | 48,818 | 17.08% | 4 |
| Bill Richardson | 13,239 | 4.63% | 0 |
| Dennis Kucinich | 3,901 | 1.36% | 0 |
| Joe Biden* | 642 | 0.23% | 0 |
| Mike Gravel | 404 | 0.14% | 0 |
| Richard Caligiuri | 254 | 0.09% | 0 |
| Chris Dodd* | 205 | 0.07% | 0 |
| Kenneth A. Capalbo | 108 | 0.04% | 0 |
| D.R. Hunter | 95 | 0.03% | 0 |
| Bill Keefe | 51 | 0.02% | 0 |
| Tom Laughlin | 47 | 0.02% | 0 |
| Randy Crow | 37 | 0.01% | 0 |
| Michael Skok | 32 | 0.01% | 0 |
| Ole Savior | 29 | 0.01% | 0 |
| Henry Hewes | 17 | 0.1% | 0 |
| William C. Hughes | 16 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Caroline Killeen | 11 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Tom Koos | 10 | 0% | 0 |
| Dal LaMagna | 8 | 0% | 0 |
| Scattered | 270 | 0.09% | 0 |
| Total | 285,811 | 100% | 22 |
* Candidate had already dropped out of the race prior to primary.
Hillary Clinton, who was behind Barack Obama by 13 points in pre-primary polls,[5] rebounded to get more votes than Obama at the end of the primary. She ultimately led the primaries by 3 percent. At her address to New Hampshire after the primary, her supporters called her the "comeback kid." According to exit polls, female voters and elderly voters helped her win this particular race. In the Iowa caucuses, Obama received 35 percent of the female vote, while Clinton only received 30 percent. In New Hampshire, however, 45 percent supported Clinton, compared to 36 percent for Obama. Also during the primary, older voters outnumbered younger voters; 67 percent of Democratic voters were over the age of 40, and most of them supported Clinton.[11]
A turnout of nearly 288,000 people was even higher than expected, and was greater than the number of New Hampshire residents who voted for Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election.[12]
Bill Richardson withdrew from the race after placing 4th in both the New Hampshire primary with less than 5 percent of the vote and the Iowa caucuses with less than 2 percent of the vote. He made this decision as he returned to his home state, New Mexico, on January 9, 2008, to meet with his top advisors.[13]
Recount
Most New Hampshire voters cast their votes on Diebold optical-scan systems, which are vulnerable to tampering, leading election-reform activists to immediately begin examining the results from New Hampshire, claiming later to find evidence suggesting fraud.[14]
On January 10, 2008, presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich requested and paid for a recount to make sure that all of the votes in the Democratic primary were counted. Kucinich noted the difference between pre-primary polls which showed that Obama would win, and Clinton's win in the actual election. In addition, Kucinich cited reports circulating throughout the internet that alleged disparities around the state between hand-counted ballots, which tended to favor Obama, and machine-counted ones, which seemed to favor Clinton.[15] He does not expect the recount to dramatically change his results in the election,[16] but in an interview with FOX News, Kucinich said that "he requested the recount out of concern for the integrity of the process and not out of loyalty to any one candidate."[15] State officials, however, strongly believe that the results of the primary were very accurate.[17] New Hampshire has never conducted a statewide recount in a presidential primary since the 1980 primary.[15]
The recount began on January 16, 2008 after New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner received $27,000 from Kucinich. The first ballots to be counted came from Manchester. If the campaigns and fair elections groups wished to do so, they would have the right to see and approve every ballot. Kucinich was able to stop the recount at any time and receive a refund for the balance of the costs of the recount, since a recount in the entire state would require $70,000.[18] Due to insufficient funding, the recount was halted on January 23, 2008.[19]
See also
- Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008
- New Hampshire Republican primary, 2008
- New Hampshire primary
- New Hampshire primary, 2008
References
- ^ a b c Gill, Kathy (2008). "How Does The New Hampshire Primary Work?". About.com: US Politics. About. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
- ^ a b c d e Berg-Andersson, Richard E. (2008). "New Hampshire Democratic Delegation 2008". The Green Papers. Retrieved 2008-02-09.
- ^ a b c 2008 Democratic National Convention Committee (2008). "How to Become a Delegate". Retrieved 2008-02-09.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ a b Liasson, Mara (2008-01-08). "What's at Stake in the New Hampshire Primary". National Public Radio. NPR and the Associated Press. Retrieved 2008-01-09.
{{cite news}}: Unknown parameter|coauthors=ignored (|author=suggested) (help) - ^ a b c Page, Susan (2008-01-07). "Poll: Obama, McCain leap ahead in N.H." USAToday.com. USA Today. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
- ^ "New Hampshire Democratic Primary". Real Clear Politics. Real Clear Politics. 2008-01-08. Retrieved 2008-01-09.
- ^ Memmott, Mark (2008-01-06). "Obama up by 13 points, McCain up by 4 in USAT/Gallup Poll in N.H." USAToday.com. USA Today. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
{{cite news}}: Unknown parameter|coauthors=ignored (|author=suggested) (help) - ^ a b Weiss, Joanna (2008). "Many faces of New Hampshire". boston.com. NY Times. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
{{cite news}}: Unknown parameter|coauthors=ignored (|author=suggested) (help) - ^ Roth, Bennett (2008-01-07). "Tuesday could be independents' day". chron.com. Houston Chronicle. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
- ^ "Presidential Primary Election January 8". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
- ^ Schneider, Bill (2008-01-09). "Clinton and McCain the comeback kids". CNNPolitics.com. Cable News Network.
{{cite news}}:|access-date=requires|url=(help); Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ http://www.uselectionatlas.org
- ^ Wayne, Leslie (2008-01-10). "Richardson Said to Be Dropping Out". The New York Times. Retrieved 2008-01-19.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Manjoo, Farhad (2008-01-11). "Was the New Hampshire vote stolen?". Machinist. Salon Media Group. Retrieved 2008-01-12.
- ^ a b c The Associated Press (2008-01-11). "New Hampshire to Conduct Recount of Presidential Primary". You Decide 2008. FOX News Network. Retrieved 2008-01-29.
- ^ "N.H. Primary Democratic Re-Count Under Way". wbztv.com. CBS Broadcasting. 2008-01-16. Retrieved 2008-02-09.
- ^ Frothingham, Stephen (2008-01-11). "Kucinich Seeks NH Dem Vote Recount". Google News. The Associated Press. Retrieved 2008-01-12.
- ^ The Associated Press (2008-01-16). "Primary re-count begins". Boston.com. Retrieved 2008-02-09.
- ^ "Welcome to the Secretary of State - NH". Retrieved 2008-01-26.