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2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina

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Main article: 2012 United States presidential election
2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
Turnout68.40% Decrease[1]
 
Nominee Mitt Romney Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Massachusetts Illinois
Running mate Paul Ryan Joe Biden
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 2,270,395 2,178,391
Percentage 50.39% 48.35%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 general election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose 15 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, U.S. Representative Paul Ryan.

Romney narrowly carried the state of North Carolina, winning 50.39% of the vote to Obama's 48.35%, a margin of 2.04 percentage points. North Carolina was one of just two states (along with Indiana) that flipped from voting for Obama in 2008 to voting Republican in 2012. Like Indiana, North Carolina had been a reliably Republican state prior to Obama's 2008 win, having not previously gone Democratic since 1976. Unlike Indiana, however, North Carolina was still considered a competitive swing state in 2012, and both campaigns targeted it heavily, with the Democrats holding their convention in Charlotte. Romney was the first presidential candidate since Zachary Taylor in 1848 to carry North Carolina while losing both Wake County and Mecklenburg County, the two most populous counties and home to the cities of Raleigh and Charlotte, respectively. Romney also became the third-ever Republican to carry North Carolina without winning the presidency after George H. W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996 and this feat would be reprised by Donald Trump in 2020. Obama became the first ever Democrat incumbent to win the state only once to then win re-election without it. Although Obama lost North Carolina to Romney, he received more votes than he received in 2008, garnering 35,740 more.

Obama became the first Democrat ever to win the presidency without Caswell and Hyde counties. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time where the Republican presidential candidate won Watauga County and where the Democratic presidential candidate won Bladen County, Gates County, Granville County, Martin County, Richmond County, and Robeson County.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

The 2012 North Carolina Democratic primary was held May 8, 2012. North Carolina awarded 157 delegates proportionally.[2]

No candidate ran against incumbent President Barack Obama in North Carolina's Democratic presidential preference primary. Obama received 766,079 votes, or 79.23% of the vote, with the remainder (200,810 votes, or 20.77%) going to elect delegates with "No Preference".[2]

At the North Carolina Democratic state convention, 152 delegates were awarded to Obama, with 5 delegates remaining unannounced.[2]

Democratic primary election in North Carolina[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Awarded delegates
Barack Obama (incumbent) 766,077 79.23% 104
No Preference 200,810 20.77% 43
Totals 966,889 100.00% 104

Republican primary

[edit]
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012 § North Carolina (May 8)

The 2012 North Carolina Republican primary was held May 8, 2012.[4][5] North Carolina awarded 55 delegates proportionally.[6] Ron Paul and Mitt Romney were the only active contenders on the ballot. By the time of the primary, Romney had already been declared the party's presumptive nominee.[7]

Romney won the North Carolina GOP presidential primary with 65.62% of the vote. Paul (with 11.12% of the vote) narrowly edged out Santorum (with 10.39% of the vote), and Gingrich came in last with 7.64% of the vote. 5.23% of voters registered "no preference". The awarded delegate count from North Carolina's Republican state convention was Romney with 48 delegates and Paul with 7 delegates.[6]

Republican primary election in North Carolina[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Awarded delegates
Mitt Romney 638,601 65.62% 48
Ron Paul 108,217 11.12% 7
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 101,093 10.39%
Newt Gingrich (withdrawn) 74,367 7.64%
No Preference 50,928 5.23%
Totals 973,206 100.00% 55

General election

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2012 United States presidential election

Throughout most of 2011, Obama won or tied with Romney in every poll. On September 25, 2011, Romney won a poll for the first time, 50% to 39%. Until May 2012, Obama had a consistent but narrow lead over Romney. Throughout the summer of 2012, the tide changed with Romney winning more polls than Obama. In September, Obama's momentum rose and Obama won most polls in September 2012. In October, the tide changed in Romney's favor, and Obama had not won a poll since October 1, 2012. Romney won every poll for the first three weeks in October, but then many polls came as tied between Obama and Romney. Romney led the last poll 50% to 46%, but the second last poll was tied.[8] The last three polls showed an average of Romney leading 49% to 48%, which was accurate compared to the results.[8]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Huffington Post[9] Tossup November 6, 2012
CNN[10] Lean R (flip) November 6, 2012
New York Times[11] Lean R (flip) November 6, 2012
Washington Post[12] Tossup November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[13] Tossup November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Likely R (flip) November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[15] Lean R (flip) November 6, 2012


Results

[edit]
2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina[16]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 2,270,395 50.39% 15
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent) 2,178,391 48.35% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 44,515 0.99% 0
Others (write-in) 12,071 0.27% 0
Totals 4,505,372 100.00% 15
Voter turnout (registered voters) 67.74%
North Carolina 2012 presidential election by precinct

By county

[edit]
County Mitt Romney
Republican 		Barack Obama
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Alamance 38,170 56.32% 28,875 42.60% 731 1.08% 9,295 13.72% 67,776
Alexander 12,253 71.25% 4,611 26.81% 332 1.94% 7,642 44.44% 17,196
Alleghany 3,390 66.90% 1,583 31.24% 94 1.86% 1,807 35.66% 5,067
Anson 4,166 37.01% 7,019 62.36% 71 0.63% −2,853 −25.35% 11,256
Ashe 8,242 65.36% 4,116 32.64% 252 2.00% 4,126 32.72% 12,610
Avery 5,766 74.31% 1,882 24.26% 111 1.43% 3,884 50.05% 7,759
Beaufort 13,977 59.17% 9,435 39.94% 208 0.89% 4,542 19.23% 23,620
Bertie 3,387 33.46% 6,695 66.14% 41 0.40% −3,308 −32.68% 10,123
Bladen 7,748 48.56% 8,062 50.52% 147 0.92% −314 −1.96% 15,957
Brunswick 34,743 60.57% 22,038 38.42% 581 1.01% 12,705 22.15% 57,362
Buncombe 54,701 42.84% 70,625 55.31% 2,370 1.85% −15,924 −12.47% 127,696
Burke 22,267 60.93% 13,701 37.49% 576 1.58% 8,566 23.44% 36,544
Cabarrus 49,557 59.30% 32,849 39.31% 1,160 1.39% 16,708 19.99% 83,566
Caldwell 23,229 66.88% 10,898 31.38% 605 1.74% 12,331 35.50% 34,732
Camden 3,109 66.09% 1,508 32.06% 87 1.85% 1,601 34.03% 4,704
Carteret 24,775 69.76% 10,301 29.00% 441 1.24% 14,474 40.76% 35,517
Caswell 5,594 50.67% 5,348 48.45% 97 0.88% 246 2.22% 11,039
Catawba 44,538 63.99% 24,069 34.58% 994 1.43% 20,469 29.41% 69,601
Chatham 16,665 47.03% 18,361 51.82% 408 1.15% −1,696 −4.79% 35,434
Cherokee 9,278 72.11% 3,378 26.25% 211 1.64% 5,900 45.86% 12,867
Chowan 3,891 51.85% 3,556 47.38% 58 0.77% 335 4.47% 7,505
Clay 3,973 70.42% 1,579 27.99% 90 1.59% 2,394 42.43% 5,642
Cleveland 25,793 59.51% 17,062 39.37% 485 1.12% 8,731 20.14% 43,340
Columbus 12,941 53.38% 11,050 45.58% 252 1.04% 1,891 7.80% 24,243
Craven 26,928 58.32% 18,763 40.64% 479 1.04% 8,165 17.68% 46,170
Cumberland 50,666 39.69% 75,792 59.38% 1,183 0.93% −25,126 −19.69% 127,641
Currituck 7,496 66.31% 3,562 31.51% 246 2.18% 3,934 34.80% 11,304
Dare 10,248 57.02% 7,393 41.13% 333 1.85% 2,855 15.89% 17,974
Davidson 49,383 69.62% 20,624 29.07% 928 1.31% 28,759 40.55% 70,935
Davie 14,687 71.05% 5,735 27.75% 248 1.20% 8,952 43.30% 20,670
Duplin 11,416 55.44% 9,033 43.87% 143 0.69% 2,383 11.57% 20,592
Durham 33,769 23.01% 111,224 75.80% 1,742 1.19% −77,455 −52.79% 146,735
Edgecombe 8,546 31.68% 18,310 67.89% 116 0.43% −9,764 −36.21% 26,972
Forsyth 79,768 45.83% 92,323 53.04% 1,978 1.13% −12,555 −7.21% 174,069
Franklin 14,603 51.44% 13,436 47.33% 350 1.23% 1,167 4.11% 28,389
Gaston 56,138 62.04% 33,171 36.66% 1,174 1.30% 22,967 25.38% 90,483
Gates 2,564 47.52% 2,786 51.63% 46 0.85% −222 −4.11% 5,396
Graham 2,750 69.67% 1,119 28.35% 78 1.98% 1,631 41.32% 3,947
Granville 12,405 47.21% 13,598 51.75% 272 1.04% −1,193 −4.54% 26,275
Greene 4,411 53.56% 3,778 45.87% 47 0.57% 633 7.69% 8,236
Guilford 104,789 41.28% 146,365 57.66% 2,698 1.06% −41,576 −16.38% 253,852
Halifax 8,763 33.60% 17,176 65.86% 140 0.54% −8,413 −32.26% 26,079
Harnett 25,565 58.89% 17,331 39.92% 519 1.19% 8,234 18.97% 43,415
Haywood 15,633 55.88% 11,833 42.30% 508 1.82% 3,800 13.58% 27,974
Henderson 32,994 62.98% 18,642 35.58% 756 1.44% 14,352 27.40% 52,392
Hertford 3,007 27.54% 7,843 71.84% 68 0.62% −4,836 −44.30% 10,918
Hoke 6,819 39.90% 10,076 58.96% 194 1.14% −3,257 −19.06% 17,089
Hyde 1,193 50.06% 1,163 48.80% 27 1.14% 30 1.26% 2,383
Iredell 49,299 64.56% 26,076 34.15% 990 1.29% 23,223 30.41% 76,365
Jackson 8,254 49.42% 8,095 48.47% 352 2.11% 159 0.95% 16,701
Johnston 48,427 63.15% 27,290 35.58% 974 1.27% 21,137 27.57% 76,691
Jones 2,837 54.24% 2,352 44.97% 41 0.79% 485 9.27% 5,230
Lee 13,158 54.28% 10,801 44.56% 280 1.16% 2,357 9.72% 24,239
Lenoir 13,980 49.78% 13,948 49.66% 158 0.56% 32 0.12% 28,086
Lincoln 25,267 68.71% 11,024 29.98% 484 1.31% 14,243 38.73% 36,775
Macon 10,835 64.26% 5,712 33.88% 314 1.86% 5,123 30.38% 16,861
Madison 5,404 53.44% 4,484 44.34% 225 2.22% 920 9.10% 10,113
Martin 5,995 47.38% 6,583 52.03% 74 0.59% −588 −4.65% 12,652
McDowell 11,775 65.06% 6,031 33.32% 293 1.62% 5,744 31.74% 18,099
Mecklenburg 171,668 38.24% 272,262 60.65% 4,970 1.11% −100,594 −22.41% 448,900
Mitchell 5,806 74.77% 1,838 23.67% 121 1.56% 3,968 51.10% 7,765
Montgomery 6,404 57.02% 4,706 41.90% 121 1.08% 1,698 15.12% 11,231
Moore 29,495 63.55% 16,505 35.56% 415 0.89% 12,990 27.99% 46,415
Nash 23,842 49.17% 24,313 50.14% 337 0.69% −471 −0.97% 48,492
New Hanover 53,385 51.52% 48,668 46.96% 1,575 1.52% 4,717 4.56% 103,628
Northampton 3,483 32.38% 7,232 67.24% 41 0.38% −3,749 −34.86% 10,756
Onslow 32,243 62.69% 18,490 35.95% 702 1.36% 13,753 26.74% 51,435
Orange 21,539 28.06% 53,901 70.22% 1,317 1.72% −32,362 −42.16% 76,757
Pamlico 4,051 59.91% 2,647 39.15% 64 0.94% 1,404 20.76% 6,762
Pasquotank 7,633 42.15% 10,282 56.78% 192 1.07% −2,649 −14.63% 18,107
Pender 14,617 59.60% 9,632 39.27% 278 1.13% 4,985 20.33% 24,527
Perquimans 3,822 57.46% 2,759 41.48% 71 1.06% 1,063 15.98% 6,652
Person 10,496 54.94% 8,418 44.06% 192 1.00% 2,078 10.88% 19,106
Pitt 36,214 45.92% 41,843 53.06% 799 1.02% −5,629 −7.14% 78,856
Polk 6,236 60.03% 4,013 38.63% 140 1.34% 2,223 21.40% 10,389
Randolph 45,160 74.38% 14,773 24.33% 782 1.29% 30,387 50.05% 60,715
Richmond 9,332 48.06% 9,904 51.01% 181 0.93% −572 −2.95% 19,417
Robeson 17,510 40.77% 24,988 58.18% 448 1.05% −7,478 −17.41% 42,946
Rockingham 25,227 60.04% 16,351 38.91% 442 1.05% 8,876 21.13% 42,020
Rowan 38,775 62.23% 22,650 36.35% 887 1.42% 16,125 25.88% 62,312
Rutherford 18,954 66.04% 9,374 32.66% 374 1.30% 9,580 33.38% 28,702
Sampson 14,422 55.10% 11,566 44.19% 186 0.71% 2,856 10.91% 26,174
Scotland 5,831 41.19% 8,215 58.03% 110 0.78% −2,384 −16.84% 14,156
Stanly 19,904 69.31% 8,431 29.36% 382 1.33% 11,473 39.95% 28,717
Stokes 15,237 70.48% 6,018 27.84% 364 1.68% 9,219 42.64% 21,619
Surry 19,923 67.60% 9,112 30.92% 435 1.48% 10,811 36.68% 29,470
Swain 2,976 51.96% 2,618 45.71% 134 2.33% 358 6.25% 5,728
Transylvania 9,634 57.47% 6,826 40.72% 303 1.81% 2,808 16.75% 16,763
Tyrrell 930 52.16% 837 46.94% 16 0.90% 93 5.22% 1,783
Union 61,107 64.51% 32,473 34.28% 1,148 1.21% 28,634 30.23% 94,728
Vance 7,429 35.62% 13,323 63.89% 102 0.49% −5,894 −28.27% 20,854
Wake 211,596 43.50% 267,262 54.94% 7,569 1.56% −55,666 −11.44% 486,427
Warren 3,140 30.90% 6,978 68.67% 44 0.43% −3,838 −37.77% 10,162
Washington 2,622 40.34% 3,833 58.98% 44 0.68% −1,211 −18.64% 6,499
Watauga 13,861 50.09% 13,002 46.98% 811 2.93% 859 3.11% 27,674
Wayne 27,641 53.83% 23,314 45.40% 397 0.77% 4,327 8.43% 51,352
Wilkes 20,515 70.39% 8,148 27.96% 482 1.65% 12,367 42.43% 29,145
Wilson 17,954 45.91% 20,875 53.38% 280 0.71% −2,921 −7.47% 39,109
Yadkin 12,578 74.81% 3,957 23.54% 278 1.65% 8,621 51.27% 16,813
Yancey 5,278 55.85% 3,981 42.12% 192 2.03% 1,297 13.73% 9,451
Totals 2,270,395 50.39% 2,178,391 48.35% 56,586 1.26% 92,004 2.04% 4,505,372
County flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Romney won 10 of the state's 13 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

District Romney Obama Representative
1st 27.88% 71.60% G. K. Butterfield
2nd 57.26% 41.71% Renee Ellmers
3rd 57.99% 41.01% Walter B. Jones
4th 27.41% 71.43% David Price
5th 59.06% 39.77% Virginia Foxx
6th 57.65% 41.34% Howard Coble
7th 59.24% 39.86% Mike McIntyre
8th 58.06% 41.00% Larry Kissell
Richard Hudson
9th 56.19% 42.81% Sue Myrick
Robert Pittenger
10th 58.00% 40.89% Patrick McHenry
11th 60.90% 37.79% Heath Shuler
Mark Meadows
12th 20.79% 78.54% Mel Watt
13th 55.45% 43.53% Brad Miller
George Holding
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← 2008 2012 2016 →

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Voter Turnout". North Carolina State Board of Elections.
  2. ^ a b c "North Carolina Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 14, 2012.
  3. ^ "NC - Election Results". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Retrieved September 18, 2016.
  4. ^ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
  5. ^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  6. ^ a b c "North Carolina Republican". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 14, 2012.
  7. ^ Memoli, Michael A. (April 25, 2012). "RNC officially names Mitt Romney the party's 'presumptive nominee'". LA Times. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  8. ^ a b "RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama". Archived from the original on May 4, 2011.
  9. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  10. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  11. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  12. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  13. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  14. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  15. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  16. ^ "North Carolina State Board of Elections". Archived from the original on November 25, 2012. Retrieved November 14, 2012.
[edit]
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