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2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

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2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

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Turnout%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence TBA

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

TBA

The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Iowa voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has 6 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Caucuses

The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.[3]

Republican caucuses

Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.[4]

county
Counties won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—100%
  •   Trump—≥95%
  •   Trump—90–95%
  •   Trump—85–90%
congressional district
Congressional districts won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—≥95%
2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses[5][6]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 31,421 97.14 39
Bill Weld 425 1.31 1
Joe Walsh 348 1.08 0
Other 151 0.47 0
Total 32,345 100% 40

Democratic caucuses

After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.[7]

2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses[8][9][10]
Candidate Initial
alignment
Final
alignment[a]
State delegate
equivalents[b]
Pledged
national
convention
delegates[11][c]
Votes % Votes % Number %
Pete Buttigieg 37,572 21.31 43,209 25.08 562.95 26.17 [d]14
Bernie Sanders 43,581 24.71 45,652 26.50 562.02 26.13 [e]12
Elizabeth Warren 32,589 18.48 34,909 20.26 388.44 18.06 [f]8
Joe Biden 26,291 14.91 23,605 13.70 340.32 15.82 [g]6
Amy Klobuchar 22,454 12.73 21,100 12.25 263.87 12.27 1
Andrew Yang 8,914 5.05 1,758 1.02 21.86 1.02
Tom Steyer 3,061 1.74 413 0.24 6.62 0.31
Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)[h] 212 0.12 16 0.01 0.21 0.01
Tulsi Gabbard 341 0.19 16 0.01 0.11 0.01
Michael Bennet 164 0.09 4 0.00 0.00 0.00
Deval Patrick 9 0.01 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
John Delaney (withdrawn) 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other 155 0.09 198 0.11 0.69 0.03
Uncommitted 1,009 0.57 1,420 0.82 3.73 0.17
Total[i] 176,352 100% 172,300 100% 2,150.83 100% 41

Libertarian caucuses

The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.[14][15]

Election results by county.
  Jacob Hornberger
  Ken Armstrong
  Dan Behrman
  Lincoln Chafee
  Jo Jorgensen
  Adam Kokesh
  John McAfee
  Sam Robb
  Vermin Supreme
  Tie
  No votes
Iowa Libertarian presidential caucus, February 8, 2020[16]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jacob Hornberger 133 47.52%
Lincoln Chafee 36 12.77%
Jo Jorgensen 18 6.38%
Adam Kokesh 17 6.03%
Dan Behrman 14 4.96%
John McAfee 10 3.55%
Vermin Supreme 9 3.19%
Other (write-in) 8 2.84%
None of the above 8 2.84%
Sam Robb 7 2.48%
Max Abramson 6 2.13%
Mark Whitney 4 1.42%
Arvin Vohra 3 1.06%
Ken Armstrong 2 0.71%
Souraya Faas 2 0.71%
Benjamin Leder 1 0.35%
John Monds 1 0.35%
Total 281 100%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Lean R June 19, 2020
Inside Elections[18] Lean R April 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Lean R June 25, 2020
Politico[20] Lean R April 19, 2020
RCP[21] Tossup June 22, 2020
Niskanen[22] Tossup March 24, 2020
CNN[23] Lean R June 25, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Joe Biden Donald Trump Other/Undecided[j] Margin
Real Clear Politics April 30, 2020 – June 10, 2020 June 16, 2020 44.5% 46.0% 9.5% Trump + 1.5
270 to Win June 3, 2020 – June 10, 2020 June 25, 2020 45.3% 46.0% 8.7% Trump + 0.7
FiveThirtyEight Until June 10, 2020 June 25, 2020 45.9% 45.5% 8.6% Biden + 0.4

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Other Undecided
Selzer/Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 674 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 43% 10%[l] 3%
Civiqs/Daily Kos June 6–8, 2020 865 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% 7%[m] 1%
PPP/Emily's List[A] June 3–4, 2020 963 (V) 48% 47% 5%
PPP[1] April 30 – May 1, 2020 1,222 (V) ± 2.8% 48% 46% 6%
Selzer/Des Moines Register March 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 41%
The New York Times/Siena College January 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 44% 5%[n] 6%
Public Policy Polling December 29–31, 2019 964 (V) 49% 46% 5%
Emerson College December 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 49% 45% 6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 25–30, 2019 1,435 ± 3.1% 45% 44% 3% 5%
Emerson College October 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49%
WPA Intelligence (R) April 27–30, 2019 200 ± 6.9% 49% 44% 5%
Emerson College March 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 47% 53%
Emerson College January 30 – February 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 49% 51%
  1. ^ Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. March 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53%[o] 34%
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 39% 7%[p] 8%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 52% 48%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% 4%[q] 7%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) 48% 47% 5%
Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 46% 45% 9%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 ± 3.1% 45% 41% 3% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 54% 46%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 54% 46%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 53% 47%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 41% 5%[r] 8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 53% 47%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. March 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 41%
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 42% 4%[s] 6%
Public Policy Polling Dec 29–31, 2019 964 (V) 49% 44% 7%
Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 ± 3.1% 47% 43% 3% 4%
Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51%
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 49% 51%
Emerson College Jan 30–Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 51% 50%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. March 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 52%[t] 40%
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 42% 5%[u] 7%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) 49% 44% 7%
Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% ± 3% 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 ± 3.1% 47% 40% 2% 7%
Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49%
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 51% 49%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 52% 48%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 55% 46%

with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Nancy
Pelosi (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 55% 45%

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 47% 46% 8%

with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 48% 45% 7%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 49% 40% 11%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
PPP/End Citizens United[v] Dec 13-15, 2019 944 (V) 47% 49% 3%
Public Policy Polling Apr 29–30, 2019 780 ± 3.5% 48% 48%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
  2. ^ The official results included four decimal digits.
  3. ^ In Iowa, the presidential caucuses only are the first determining step for the delegate distribution, the final step are the decisions on the district conventions and the much later state convention. According to the provisions set by the Iowa Democratic Party's "Delegate Selection Plan", statewide delegates preliminarily awarded to other candidates had to be reallocated at the state convention on June 13, as their pledged candidates had dropped out, while the already early decided district delegates remain fixed.
  4. ^ Due to his withdrawal in March, 2 of the 5 statewide delegates mathematically won by Buttigieg were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[11][12]
  5. ^ Due to his withdrawal in April, 3 of the 4 statewide delegates mathematically won by Sanders were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[11][12]
  6. ^ Due to her withdrawal in March, all of the 3 statewide delegates mathematically won by Warren were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[11][12]
  7. ^ 8 of the 12 statewide delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg (2), Sanders (3) and Warren (3), who had withdrawn in the meantime, were reallocated to Biden as the sole remaining viable contender and were added to his own 2 statewide delegates at the state convention on June 13.[11][12]
  8. ^ Michael Bloomberg officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on November 24, 2019, but chose not to contest the first four nominating contests of the primary season, including the Iowa caucuses.[13]
  9. ^ Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[9]
  10. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  14. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  15. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEIght
  16. ^ Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
  17. ^ Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  18. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  19. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 2%
  20. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEIght
  21. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  22. ^ End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 25, 2018). "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
  5. ^ "Iowa Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
  6. ^ "2020 Iowa Republican caucuses results". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 12, 2022.
  7. ^ "Iowa caucus results: Buttigieg, Sanders in a near tie, with 100% of results published". USA TODAY. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
  8. ^ Lee, Jasmine C.; Lieberman, Rebecca; Aufrichtig, Aliza; Bloch, Matthew (February 4, 2020). "Live: Iowa Caucus Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved February 27, 2020.
  9. ^ a b "Iowa democratic Caucus Results". Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 15, 2021.
  10. ^ Levy, Adam; Merica, Dan (March 1, 2020). "Iowa Democratic Party certifies Buttigieg's Iowa lead amid Sanders challenge". CNN. Retrieved March 1, 2020.
  11. ^ a b c d e "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Iowa Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
  12. ^ a b c d "Iowa Democratic Party Announces Delegation to National Convention". iowademocrats.org. 13 June 2020. Retrieved 20 August 2020.
  13. ^ Gonyea, Don (2020-02-14). "Mike Bloomberg Storms Super Tuesday States, Pledging To 'Get It Done'". NPR. Retrieved 2021-12-12.
  14. ^ "Libertarian's announce caucus results". Knoxville Journal Express. February 10, 2020. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
  15. ^ McDaniel, Tiffany (February 10, 2020). "Low voter turnout at the Iowa Libertarian Party Caucus". The Oskaloosa Herald. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
  16. ^ Howe, Joseph (February 8, 2020). "Libertarian Party Of Iowa Presidential Caucus Winner And Results". Libertarian Party of Iowa. Retrieved February 8, 2020.
  17. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  18. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  19. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  21. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  22. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  23. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.