2020 United States presidential election in Iowa
| |||||||||||||||||
Turnout | % | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Iowa |
---|
The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Iowa voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has 6 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Caucuses
The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.[3]
Republican caucuses
Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.[4]
Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump (incumbent) | 31,421 | 97.14 | 39 |
Bill Weld | 425 | 1.31 | 1 |
Joe Walsh | 348 | 1.08 | 0 |
Other | 151 | 0.47 | 0 |
Total | 32,345 | 100% | 40 |
Democratic caucuses
After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.[7]
Candidate | Initial alignment |
Final alignment[a] |
State delegate equivalents[b] |
Pledged national convention delegates[11][c] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Number | % | ||
Pete Buttigieg | 37,572 | 21.31 | 43,209 | 25.08 | 562.95 | 26.17 | [d]14 |
Bernie Sanders | 43,581 | 24.71 | 45,652 | 26.50 | 562.02 | 26.13 | [e]12 |
Elizabeth Warren | 32,589 | 18.48 | 34,909 | 20.26 | 388.44 | 18.06 | [f]8 |
Joe Biden | 26,291 | 14.91 | 23,605 | 13.70 | 340.32 | 15.82 | [g]6 |
Amy Klobuchar | 22,454 | 12.73 | 21,100 | 12.25 | 263.87 | 12.27 | 1 |
Andrew Yang | 8,914 | 5.05 | 1,758 | 1.02 | 21.86 | 1.02 | |
Tom Steyer | 3,061 | 1.74 | 413 | 0.24 | 6.62 | 0.31 | |
Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)[h] | 212 | 0.12 | 16 | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.01 | |
Tulsi Gabbard | 341 | 0.19 | 16 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.01 | |
Michael Bennet | 164 | 0.09 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
Deval Patrick | 9 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
John Delaney (withdrawn) | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
Other | 155 | 0.09 | 198 | 0.11 | 0.69 | 0.03 | |
Uncommitted | 1,009 | 0.57 | 1,420 | 0.82 | 3.73 | 0.17 | |
Total[i] | 176,352 | 100% | 172,300 | 100% | 2,150.83 | 100% | 41 |
Libertarian caucuses
The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.[14][15]
Iowa Libertarian presidential caucus, February 8, 2020[16] | ||
---|---|---|
Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
Jacob Hornberger | 133 | 47.52% |
Lincoln Chafee | 36 | 12.77% |
Jo Jorgensen | 18 | 6.38% |
Adam Kokesh | 17 | 6.03% |
Dan Behrman | 14 | 4.96% |
John McAfee | 10 | 3.55% |
Vermin Supreme | 9 | 3.19% |
Other (write-in) | 8 | 2.84% |
None of the above | 8 | 2.84% |
Sam Robb | 7 | 2.48% |
Max Abramson | 6 | 2.13% |
Mark Whitney | 4 | 1.42% |
Arvin Vohra | 3 | 1.06% |
Ken Armstrong | 2 | 0.71% |
Souraya Faas | 2 | 0.71% |
Benjamin Leder | 1 | 0.35% |
John Monds | 1 | 0.35% |
Total | 281 | 100% |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[17] | Lean R | June 19, 2020 |
Inside Elections[18] | Lean R | April 3, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Lean R | June 25, 2020 |
Politico[20] | Lean R | April 19, 2020 |
RCP[21] | Tossup | June 22, 2020 |
Niskanen[22] | Tossup | March 24, 2020 |
CNN[23] | Lean R | June 25, 2020 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other/Undecided[j] | Margin |
Real Clear Politics | April 30, 2020 – June 10, 2020 | June 16, 2020 | 44.5% | 46.0% | 9.5% | Trump + 1.5 |
270 to Win | June 3, 2020 – June 10, 2020 | June 25, 2020 | 45.3% | 46.0% | 8.7% | Trump + 0.7 |
FiveThirtyEight | Until June 10, 2020 | June 25, 2020 | 45.9% | 45.5% | 8.6% | Biden + 0.4 |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[k] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selzer/Des Moines Register | June 7–10, 2020 | 674 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 43% | 10%[l] | 3% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | June 6–8, 2020 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 46% | 7%[m] | 1% |
PPP/Emily's List[A] | June 3–4, 2020 | 963 (V) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 5% |
PPP[1] | April 30 – May 1, 2020 | 1,222 (V) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
Selzer/Des Moines Register | March 2–5, 2020 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 41% | – | – |
The New York Times/Siena College | January 20–23, 2020 | 1,689 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 44% | 5%[n] | 6% |
Public Policy Polling | December 29–31, 2019 | 964 (V) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Emerson College | December 7–10, 2019 | 1,043 (RV) | ± 3% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | October 25–30, 2019 | 1,435 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 44% | 3% | 5% |
Emerson College | October 13–16, 2019 | 888 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 49% | – | – |
WPA Intelligence (R) | April 27–30, 2019 | 200 | ± 6.9% | 49% | 44% | – | 5% |
Emerson College | March 21–24, 2019 | 707 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 53% | – | – |
Emerson College | January 30 – February 2, 2019 | 831 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
- ^ Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates
Former candidates
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
|
Hypothetical polling
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown
with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi
with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat
|
See also
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
- ^ Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
- ^ The official results included four decimal digits.
- ^ In Iowa, the presidential caucuses only are the first determining step for the delegate distribution, the final step are the decisions on the district conventions and the much later state convention. According to the provisions set by the Iowa Democratic Party's "Delegate Selection Plan", statewide delegates preliminarily awarded to other candidates had to be reallocated at the state convention on June 13, as their pledged candidates had dropped out, while the already early decided district delegates remain fixed.
- ^ Due to his withdrawal in March, 2 of the 5 statewide delegates mathematically won by Buttigieg were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[11][12]
- ^ Due to his withdrawal in April, 3 of the 4 statewide delegates mathematically won by Sanders were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[11][12]
- ^ Due to her withdrawal in March, all of the 3 statewide delegates mathematically won by Warren were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[11][12]
- ^ 8 of the 12 statewide delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg (2), Sanders (3) and Warren (3), who had withdrawn in the meantime, were reallocated to Biden as the sole remaining viable contender and were added to his own 2 statewide delegates at the state convention on June 13.[11][12]
- ^ Michael Bloomberg officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on November 24, 2019, but chose not to contest the first four nominating contests of the primary season, including the Iowa caucuses.[13]
- ^ Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[9]
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%
- ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEIght
- ^ Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
- ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
- ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEIght
- ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
- ^ End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
References
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 25, 2018). "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
- ^ "Iowa Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Iowa Republican caucuses results". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 12, 2022.
- ^ "Iowa caucus results: Buttigieg, Sanders in a near tie, with 100% of results published". USA TODAY. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
- ^ Lee, Jasmine C.; Lieberman, Rebecca; Aufrichtig, Aliza; Bloch, Matthew (February 4, 2020). "Live: Iowa Caucus Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved February 27, 2020.
- ^ a b "Iowa democratic Caucus Results". Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 15, 2021.
- ^ Levy, Adam; Merica, Dan (March 1, 2020). "Iowa Democratic Party certifies Buttigieg's Iowa lead amid Sanders challenge". CNN. Retrieved March 1, 2020.
- ^ a b c d e "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Iowa Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
- ^ a b c d "Iowa Democratic Party Announces Delegation to National Convention". iowademocrats.org. 13 June 2020. Retrieved 20 August 2020.
- ^ Gonyea, Don (2020-02-14). "Mike Bloomberg Storms Super Tuesday States, Pledging To 'Get It Done'". NPR. Retrieved 2021-12-12.
- ^ "Libertarian's announce caucus results". Knoxville Journal Express. February 10, 2020. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
- ^ McDaniel, Tiffany (February 10, 2020). "Low voter turnout at the Iowa Libertarian Party Caucus". The Oskaloosa Herald. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
- ^ Howe, Joseph (February 8, 2020). "Libertarian Party Of Iowa Presidential Caucus Winner And Results". Libertarian Party of Iowa. Retrieved February 8, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.