California Democratic primary, 2016

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California Democratic presidential primary, 2016

← 2008 June 7, 2016 (2016-06-07) 2020 →

  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 254 221
Popular vote 2,745,302[1] 2,381,722
Percentage 53.07% 46.04%

California Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

The 2016 California Democratic presidential primary was held on June 7 in the U.S. state of California as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

The Democratic Party's primaries in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota were held the same day, as were Republican primaries in the same five states. Additionally, the Democratic Party held North Dakota caucuses the same day.

Opinion polling[edit]

Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Primary results June 7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53.1%
Bernie Sanders
46.0%
Others
0.9%
CBS News/YouGov[2]

Margin of error: ±5.0%
Sample size: 674

May 31-June 3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided
4%
American Research Group[3]

Margin of error: ± -%
Sample size: 400

May 31 –
June 2, 2016
Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided
5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[4]

Margin of error: ±4.2%
Sample size: 557

May 29–31, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided
4%
Field[5]

Margin of error: ±4.1%
Sample size: 571

May 26–31, 2016 Hillary Clinton
45%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided
12%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[6]

Margin of error: ± 2.9%
Sample size: 1,500

May 19–31, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
13%
SurveyUSA[7]

Margin of error: ±%
Sample size: 803

May 19–22, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Undecided
4%
PPIC[8]

Margin of error: ±5.7%
Sample size: 552

May 13–22, 2016 Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Undecided
10%
Hoover Institution State Poll[9]

Margin of error: ±3.47%
Sample size: 1,700

May 4–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
11%
Sextant (D)/Capitol Weekly[10]

Margin of error: ±2.3%
Sample size: 1,617

April 28-May 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
12%
SurveyUSA/KABC/SCNG[11]

Margin of error: ± %
Sample size: 826

April 27–30, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
6%
FOX News[12]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 623

April 18–21, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
46%
Others / Undecided
6%
CBS News/YouGov[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 1,124

April 13–15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
8%
Gravis Marketing[14]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 846

April 7–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
12%
Field[15]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 584

March 24 - April 4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
12%
SurveyUSA[16]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 767

March 30 - April 3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
8%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[17]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 832

March 16–23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
17%
PPIC[18]

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 529

March 6–15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
11%
Field Poll[19]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample Size: 329

January 6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
35%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Undecided 18%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Field Poll[20]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 391

September 17 – October 4, 2015 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
35%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Other 2%
Undecided 14%
Hillary Clinton
40%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Joe Biden 15%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Jim Webb 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 12%
USC/LA Times[21]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: ?

August 29 – September 8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
42%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Other/NA 16%
Undecided 16%
Hillary Clinton
39%
Bernie Sanders
23%
Joe Biden 11%
Other/NA 11%
Undecided 16%
Field Poll[22]

Margin of error: ± 7.0%
Sample size: 356

April 23 – May 16, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53%
Elizabeth Warren
13%
Joe Biden 6%
Bernie Sanders 5%
Jim Webb 1%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Undecided/other 22%
Emerson College[23]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 487

April 2–8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
56%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Joe Biden 8%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 1%
Andrew Cuomo 0%
Other 2%
Undecided 17%
Field Poll [24]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 425

January 26 – February 16, 2015 Hillary Clinton
59%
Elizabeth Warren
17%
Joe Biden 9%
Bernie Sanders 6%
Jim Webb 2%
Others <0.5%
Undecided 7%

Results[edit]


e • d Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in California, 2016
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 2,745,302 53.07% 254 66 320
Bernie Sanders 2,381,722 46.04% 221 0 221
Willie Wilson 12,014 0.23%
Michael Steinberg 10,880 0.21%
Roque De La Fuente 8,453 0.16%
Henry Hewes 7,743 0.15%
Keith Judd 7,201 0.14%
Write-in 23 0.00%
Uncommitted N/A 10 10
Total 5,173,338 100% 475 76 551
Source: California Secretary of State - Presidential Primary Election Statement of Votes The Green Papers

Results by county[edit]

County[25] Clinton % Sanders % Others % Totals Turnout (%) Margin %
Alameda 164,889 51.5% 153,955 48.0% 1,577 0.5% 320,421 10,934 3.4%
Alpine 113 44.8% 137 54.4% 2 0.8% 252 24 9.5%
Amador 2,516 50.4% 2,386 47.8% 88 1.8% 4,990 130 2.6%
Butte 11,766 37.0% 19,739 62.0% 315 1.0% 31,820 7,973 25.1%
Calaveras 2,971 49.5% 2,914 48.5% 123 2.0% 6,008 57 0.9%
Colusa 835 49.3% 809 47.8% 48 2.8% 1,692 26 1.5%
Contra Costa 103,333 56.7% 77,862 42.7% 1,082 0.6% 182,277 25,471 14.0%
Del Norte 1,119 40.4% 1,598 57.6% 55 2.0% 2,772 479 17.3%
El Dorado 12,492 49.1% 12,620 49.6% 313 1.2% 25,425 128 0.5%
Fresno 45,436 56.0% 34,663 42.7% 998 1.2% 81,097 10,773 13.3%
Glenn 911 46.8% 1,003 51.5% 34 1.7% 1,948 92 4.7%
Humboldt 8,135 28.7% 19,928 70.4% 240 0.8% 28,303 11,793 41.7%
Imperial 9,843 65.0% 5,111 33.7% 190 1.3% 15,144 4,732 31.2%
Inyo 1,001 42.5% 1,313 55.7% 44 1.9% 2,358 312 13.2%
Kern 28,806 54.1% 23,374 43.9% 1,054 2.0% 53,234 5,432 10.2%
Kings 4,150 57.8% 2,869 39.9% 165 2.3% 7,184 1,281 17.8%
Lake 3,988 42.7% 5,195 55.7% 148 1.6% 9,331 1,207 12.9%
Lassen 812 42.6% 1,023 53.7% 70 3.7% 1,905 211 11.1%
Los Angeles 780,013 54.4% 639,886 44.6% 14,768 1.0% 1,434,667 140,127 9.8%
Madera 5,808 53.1% 4,852 44.4% 279 2.6% 10,939 956 8.7%
Marin 43,283 56.4% 33,214 43.3% 260 0.3% 76,757 10,069 13.1%
Mariposa 1,102 44.1% 1,355 54.2% 44 1.8% 2,501 253 10.1%
Mendocino 6,048 32.8% 12,259 66.5% 119 0.6% 18,426 6,211 33.7%
Merced 10,839 53.0% 9,273 45.3% 339 1.7% 20,451 1,566 7.7%
Modoc 281 42.3% 349 52.5% 35 5.3% 665 68 10.2%
Mono 799 43.3% 1,038 56.2% 10 0.5% 1,847 239 12.9%
Monterey 29,730 52.8% 26,073 46.3% 513 0.9% 56,316 3,657 6.5%
Napa 13,583 53.4% 11,682 45.9% 190 0.7% 25,455 1,901 7.5%
Nevada 8,175 36.9% 13,827 62.4% 148 0.7% 22,150 5,652 25.5%
Orange 171,593 51.9% 156,235 47.3% 2,767 0.8% 330,595 15,358 4.6%
Placer 25,249 54.1% 20,916 44.8% 490 1.1% 46,655 4,333 9.3%
Plumas 1,211 44.1% 1,475 53.7% 62 2.3% 2,748 264 9.6%
Riverside 112,526 56.1% 85,918 42.8% 2,197 1.1% 200,641 26,608 13.3%
Sacramento 109,898 54.6% 89,428 44.4% 1,933 1.0% 201,259 20,470 10.2%
San Benito 4,112 54.3% 3,380 44.6% 83 1.1% 7,575 732 9.7%
San Bernardino 96,076 54.6% 77,706 44.2% 2,194 1.2% 175,976 18,370 10.4%
San Diego 215,655 51.6% 199,716 47.7% 2,909 0.7% 418,280 15,939 3.8%
San Francisco 116,359 53.6% 99,594 45.9% 961 0.4% 216,914 16,765 7.7%
San Joaquin 38,212 56.5% 28,523 42.2% 879 1.3% 67,614 9,689 14.3%
San Luis Obispo 21,637 46.7% 24,379 52.6% 346 0.7% 46,362 2,742 5.9%
San Mateo 79,756 58.7% 55,367 40.8% 705 0.5% 135,828 24,389 18.0%
Santa Barbara 31,927 46.9% 35,717 52.4% 474 0.7% 68,118 3,790 5.6%
Santa Clara 159,480 57.5% 116,193 41.9% 1,840 0.7% 277,513 43,287 15.6%
Santa Cruz 29,520 40.5% 42,940 59.0% 377 0.5% 72,837 13,420 18.4%
Shasta 7,809 45.4% 9,026 52.4% 377 2.2% 17,212 1,217 7.1%
Sierra 224 42.5% 297 56.4% 6 1.1% 527 73 13.9%
Siskiyou 2,466 38.0% 3,894 60.0% 126 1.9% 6,486 1,428 22.0%
Solano 34,231 55.3% 27,122 43.8% 527 0.9% 61,880 7,109 11.5%
Sonoma 55,595 47.3% 61,167 52.0% 803 0.7% 117,565 5,572 4.7%
Stanislaus 24,359 51.2% 22,384 47.1% 798 1.7% 47,541 1,975 4.2%
Sutter 4,023 52.7% 3,463 45.4% 146 1.9% 7,632 560 7.3%
Tehama 2,372 45.9% 2,655 51.4% 136 2.6% 5,163 283 5.5%
Trinity 672 35.1% 1,211 63.3% 31 1.6% 1,914 539 28.2%
Tulare 13,472 54.4% 10,834 43.7% 468 1.9% 24,774 2,638 10.6%
Tuolumne 3,433 48.2% 3,592 50.5% 91 1.3% 7,116 159 2.2%
Ventura 60,615 51.2% 56,751 47.9% 1,015 0.9% 118,381 3,864 3.3%
Yolo 17,655 48.2% 18,761 51.3% 190 0.5% 36,606 1,106 3.0%
Yuba 2,388 45.1% 2,771 52.4% 132 2.5% 5,291 383 7.2%
Total 2,745,302 53.1% 2,381,722 46.0% 46,314 0.9% 5,173,338 363,580 7.0%

Analysis[edit]

Clinton won the California primary, after Bernie Sanders had made a very serious play for the state and barnstormed it before election day. Sanders was significantly behind in the overall race by the time California voted (June 7, 2016), and it would have been hard for him to win the nomination by that point unless he persuaded Superdelegates to switch their support to him at the convention. He hoped a California win would assist in that effort. He rallied large numbers of supporters across the state, but in the end his barnstorming did not prevail, with Clinton winning by seven points (more than most polls predicted). She won in all the major cities: Sacramento, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Los Angeles, and San Diego; Sanders did well in the northernmost counties bordering Oregon where he had won the month before.[26] After Sanders' disappointing loss, Rose Kapolczynski, an advisor to Barbara Boxer, described the primary results: "You can have a lot of excitement and a compelling message and inspire people, but if they don’t show up to vote, it doesn’t matter. Sanders did have very impressive rallies all over the state, but were those people turning around and calling their neighbors and taking action to get other people to vote for Sanders?"[27]

For her part, Clinton had campaigned aggressively for the state's diverse electorate, with Spanish, Korean, Vietnamese, Tagalog, and Chinese-language ads being aired by her campaign on the airwaves and on TV to make a play for both Latino and Asian American voters.[28]

Clinton was declared the presumptive winner of the democratic nomination by multiple news outlets on June 6, the night before the California primary.[29][30][31][32] She had previously not had enough delegates, and the declaration that she had clinched the nomination was based on a survey of superdelegates, not on votes. This announcement being made the night before a primary as large as California's was considered controversial, and may or may not have affected voter turnout the next day.[33]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "California Secretary of State - Semi-Official Primary Results". ca.gov. 
  2. ^ "Poll: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders down to the wire in California". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved 2016-06-07. 
  3. ^ "California 2016 Primary Forecasts". ARG. Retrieved June 7, 2016. 
  4. ^ "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll June 2016 California Questionnaire". scribd.com. Retrieved June 1, 2016. 
  5. ^ "California's Democratic Presidential Primary Tightening. Clinton's Lead Over Sanders Declines to Two Points. State Republicans Appear to Be Warming to Trump's Candidacy". Retrieved June 2, 2016. 
  6. ^ "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll June 2016 California Questionnaire". scribd.com. Retrieved June 3, 2016. 
  7. ^ "Hillary Clinton poised to defeat Bernie Sanders in California's presidential primary, SurveyUSA poll shows". ABC News. Retrieved 23 May 2016. 
  8. ^ "Californians and Their Government May 2016 Full Crosstabs – Likely Voters Only" (PDF). PPIC Statewide Survey. Retrieved 26 May 2016. 
  9. ^ "Poll: Clinton up 13 over Sanders in Calif". Retrieved May 31, 2016. 
  10. ^ "Capitol Weekly California Statewide Dem Primary April 28-May 1, 2016" (PDF). Retrieved May 4, 2016. 
  11. ^ "California voters resigned to vote for Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, SurveyUSA poll shows". Retrieved May 2, 2016. 
  12. ^ "Fox News Poll: California Presidential Primaries". Fox News. April 22, 2016. Retrieved April 22, 2016. 
  13. ^ "Poll: Clinton keeps New York edge, leads Sanders in California". Retrieved 2016-04-17. 
  14. ^ "California Democratic Primary Polling". Retrieved 2016-04-20. 
  15. ^ "Sanders gaining on Clinton in California poll". Retrieved 2016-04-08. 
  16. ^ In CA, 47% of Registered Voters and 15% of Likely GOP Primary Voters Have 'Extremely Negative' View of Trump; Still He Leads Cruz Narrowly; Clinton Atop Sanders in Democrat Primary; Harris & Sanchez Likely To Advance for Boxer's Seat; CA's Vital 55 Electoral Votes Stay Blue in 2016: (Report). SurveyUSA. 2016-04-05. Retrieved 2016-04-05. 
  17. ^ "As California primary nears, even Sanders supporters are uniting behind Clinton and against a common enemy: Trump". Retrieved 2016-03-29. 
  18. ^ "Californians and Their Government - March 2016 Full Crosstabs - Likely Voters Only" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-03-24. 
  19. ^ DiCamillo, Mark (6 January 2016). "Clinton Maintains 11-Point Lead Over Sanders Among Likely Voters in California's Democratic Presidential Primary. Both Candidates Are Highly Regarded" (PDF). Field Research Corporation. Retrieved 22 January 2016. 
  20. ^ "Sanders gains on Clinton". sacbee.com. Retrieved 2015-10-07. 
  21. ^ "Trump and Clinton lead presidential contenders in California". news.usc.edu/. Retrieved 2015-09-13. 
  22. ^ "Field Poll Online" (PDF). field.com. Retrieved 2015-07-09. 
  23. ^ "2016 California Presidential Republican Primary – Bush 17%, Walker 17%". Emerson College. Retrieved 22 January 2016. 
  24. ^ http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2496.pdf
  25. ^ http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2016-primary/26-presidential-formatted.pdf
  26. ^ "California Primary Election Results". Retrieved 2016-08-07. 
  27. ^ Times, Los Angeles. "How Hillary Clinton won California". latimes.com. Retrieved 2016-08-07. 
  28. ^ "Hillary Clinton Campaign Launches New Asian American Ads". AAPI for Hillary. 2016-05-27. Retrieved 2016-08-31. 
  29. ^ "AP count: Clinton has delegates to win Democratic nomination". ap.org. 
  30. ^ "Clinton clinches Democratic nomination". politico.com. 
  31. ^ Bump, Philip (6 June 2016). "Analysis - Hillary Clinton just clinched the Democratic nomination. Here's the math behind it" – via www.washingtonpost.com. 
  32. ^ "Hillary Clinton Has Clinched Democratic Nomination, Survey Reports". 6 June 2016 – via NYTimes.com. 
  33. ^ "No one wanted Hillary Clinton to win this way". msnbc.com.