World population
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/77/World-Population-1800-2100.png/300px-World-Population-1800-2100.png)
The world population is the total number of living humans on the planet Earth. It is currently estimated to be 8.13 billion by the United States Census Bureau.[1] According to a separate estimate by the United Nations, it is approximately 7 billion.[2] The world population has experienced continuous growth since the end of the Great Famine and Bubonic Plague in 1350, when it stood at around 370 million.[3] The highest rates of growth—increases above 1.8% per year—were seen briefly during the 1950s, and for a longer period during the 1960s and 1970s. The growth rate peaked at 2.2% in 1963, and had declined to 1.1% by 2009. Current projections show a continued increase in population (but a steady decline in the population growth rate), with the global population expected to reach between 7.5 and 10.5 billion by 2050.[4][5][6]
Population by region
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2e/World_Population_by_Continent_and_10_Most_Populated_Countries.png/300px-World_Population_by_Continent_and_10_Most_Populated_Countries.png)
Asia is the most-populated of Earth's continents, with its over 4 billion inhabitants accounting for over 60% of the world population. The world's two most-populated countries alone, China and India, constitute about 37 percent of the world's population. Africa is the second-most-populated continent, with around 1 billion people, or 15% of the world's population. Europe's 733 million people make up 11% of the world's population, while the Latin American and Caribbean regions are home to 589 million (9%). Northern America has a population of around 352 million (5%), and Oceania, the least-populated region, has about 35 million inhabitants (0.5%).[7]
World population (millions)[8] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
# | 1990 | 2008 | 2025* | |
1 | China | 1,141 | 1,333 | 1,458 |
2 | India | 849 | 1,140 | 1,398 |
3 | US | 250 | 304 | 352 |
4 | Indonesia | 178 | 228 | 273 |
5 | Brazil | 150 | 192 | 223 |
6 | Pakistan | 108 | 166 | 226 |
7 | Bangladesh | 116 | 160 | 198 |
8 | Nigeria | 94 | 151 | 208 |
9 | Russia | 148 | 142 | 137 |
10 | Japan | 124 | 128 | 126 |
World | 5,265 | 6,688 | 8,004 | |
Top ten most populated countries (%) | 60.0 % | 58.9 % | 57.5 % | |
1 | Asia | 1,613 | 2,183 | 2,693 |
+ China | 1,141 | 1,333 | 1,458 | |
+ OECD Pacific | 187 | 202 | 210 | |
2 | Africa | 634 | 984 | 1,365 |
3 | Europe+ | 564 | 603 | 659 |
+ Russia | 148 | 142 | 137 | |
+ former Soviet Union | 133 | 136 | 146 | |
4 | Latin America | 355 | 462 | 550 |
5 | North America* (US+C+M) | 359 | 444 | 514 |
7 | Middle East | 132 | 199 | 272 |
9 | Australia | 17 | 22 | 28 |
European Union - 27 | 473 | 499 | 539 | |
US+ Canada | 278 | 338 | 392 | |
Ex Soviet Union | 289 | 285 | 289 | |
Europe= OECD Europe +Non-OECD Europe Europe exclude Russia + include Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania ex Russia = ex SU - Russia and European Est., Lat. and Lith. |
Milestones by the billions
Population (in billions) |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 1804 | 1927 | 1960 | 1974 | 1987 | 1999 | 2011 | 2027 | 2046 | |||||||||
Years elapsed | –– | 123 | 33 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 19 |
It is estimated that the population of the world reached one billion for the first time in 1805. It would be another 122 years before it reached two billion in 1927, but it took only 33 years to rise by another billion people, reaching three billion in 1960. Thereafter, the global population reached four billion in 1974, five billion in 1987, six billion in 1999 and, by some estimates, seven billion in October 2011.[2] It is projected to reach eight billion by 2025–2030. According to current projections, the world's population is likely to reach around nine billion by 2045–2050, with alternative scenarios ranging from a low of 7.4 billion to a high of more than 10.6 billion.[9][10][11][12][13] Projected figures vary depending on underlying statistical assumptions and which variables are manipulated in projection calculations, especially the fertility variable. Long-range predictions to 2150 range from a population decline to 3.2 billion in the 'low scenario', to 'high scenarios' of 24.8 billion. One scenario predicts a massive increase to 256 billion, assuming fertility remains at 1995 levels.[14]
There is no estimation for the exact day or month the world's population surpassed both the one and two billion marks. The days of three and four billion were not officially noted, but the International Database of the United States Census Bureau places them in July 1959 and April 1974. The United Nations did determine, and celebrate, the "Day of 5 Billion" on 11 July 1987, and the "Day of 6 Billion" on 12 October 1999. However, the International Programs division of the United States Census Bureau estimated that the world population reached six billion on 21 April 1999, several months earlier than the official United Nations day. The "Day of 7 Billion" has been targeted by the United States Census Bureau to be in March 2012,[1] while the Population Division of the United Nations suggests 31 October 2011.[15]
Regional milestones by the billions
The first of Earth's regions to attain a billion inhabitants was the Northern Hemisphere,[when?] followed shortly by the Eastern Hemisphere, well before the world total hit two billion. The first single continent to reach this milestone was Asia, followed by the sub-regions of East Asia and South Asia. China became the first country with a billion inhabitants in 1980, and was followed by India in 1999. The Western Hemisphere reached the one-billion milestone in the 2000s, and the population of Africa reached one billion in 2010. The next one-billion-inhabitants milestones expected by demographers are the Americas, with a current population of around 920 million, and the Southern Hemisphere and Subsaharan Africa, currently each with around 850 million people. It is not known when, or if, the current next contenders, Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America in that order, will each surpass 1 billion inhabitants.
Currently, only the Northern Hemisphere, Eastern Hemisphere, and Asia have reached the 2-billion, 3-billion or 4-billion-inhabitants mark.
History
Antiquity and Middle Ages
A dramatic population bottleneck is theorized for the period around 70,000 BC (see Toba catastrophe theory). After this time, and until the development of agriculture, it is estimated that the world population stabilized at about one million people whose subsistence entailed hunting and foraging, a lifestyle that by its nature ensured a low population density. The total world population probably never exceeded 15 million inhabitants before the invention of agriculture.[16] By contrast, it is estimated that more than 50-60 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire (AD 300–400).[17]
The plague which first emerged during the reign of Justinian caused Europe's population to drop by around 50% between 541 and the 8th century.[18] The population of Europe was more than 70 million in 1340.[19] The Black Death pandemic in the 14th century may have reduced the world's population from an estimated 450 million to between 350 and 375 million in 1400.[20] It took roughly 200 years for Europe's population to regain its 1340 level.[21] China experienced a population decline from an estimated 123 million around 1200 to an estimated 65 million in 1393,[22] which was presumably due to a combination of Mongol invasions and plague.[23]
At the founding of the Ming Dynasty in 1368, China's population was reported to be close to 60 million; toward the end of the dynasty in 1644, it might have approached 150 million.[24][25] England's population reached an estimated 5.6 million in 1650, up from an estimated 2.6 million in 1500.[26] New crops that had come to Asia and Europe from the Americas via the Spanish colonizers in the 16th century are believed to have contributed to population growth.[27][28] Since being introduced by Portuguese traders in the 16th century,[29] maize and manioc have replaced traditional African crops as the continent’s most important staple food crops.[30] Alfred W. Crosby speculated that increased production of maize, manioc, and other American crops "...enabled the slave traders [who] drew many, perhaps most, of their cargoes from the rain forest areas, precisely those areas where American crops enabled heavier settlement than before."[31]
The population of the Americas in 1500 may have been between 50 and 100 million.[32] The pre-Columbian North American population probably numbered somewhere between 2 million and 18 million.[33] Encounters between European explorers and populations in the rest of the world often introduced local epidemics of extraordinary virulence.[34] Archaeological evidence indicates that the death of around 90% of the Native American population of the New World was caused by Old World diseases such as smallpox, measles, and influenza.[35] Over the centuries, the Europeans had developed high degrees of immunity to these diseases, while the indigenous peoples had no such immunity.[36]
Modern era
During the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions, the life expectancy of children increased dramatically.[38] The percentage of the children born in London who died before the age of five decreased from 74.5% in 1730-1749 to 31.8% in 1810-1829.[39][40] Between 1700 and 1900, Europe’s population increased from about 100 million to over 400 million.[41] Altogether, the areas of European settlement comprised 36% of the world's population in 1900.[42]
Population growth in the West became more rapid after the introduction of compulsory vaccination and improvements in medicine and sanitation.[43][44][45] As living conditions and health care improved during the 19th century, the United Kingdom's population doubled every fifty years.[46] By 1801 the population of England had grown to 8.3 million, and by 1901 it had reached 30.5 million.[47]
The first half of the 20th century in Russia and the Soviet Union were marked by a succession of disasters, each accompanied by large–scale population losses.[48] By the end of World War II in 1945, therefore, the Russian population was about 90 million fewer than it could have been otherwise.[49]
The population of the Indian subcontinent, which stood at about 125 million in 1750, had reached 389 million by 1941.[50] Today, the region is home to over 1.22 billion people.[51] The total number of inhabitants of Java increased from about five million in 1815 to more than 130 million in the early 21st century.[52] Mexico's population grew from 13.6 million in 1900 to about 112 million in 2009.[53] Between the 1920s and 2000s, Kenya's population grew from 2.9 million to 37 million.[54]
Overpopulation
The scientific consensus is that the current population expansion and accompanying increase in usage of resources is linked to threats to the ecosystem.[55][56] The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population Growth, which was ratified by 58 member national academies in 1994, called the growth in human numbers "unprecedented", and stated that many environmental problems, such as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and pollution, were aggravated by the population expansion.[57] At the time, the world population stood at 5.5 billion, and lower-bound scenarios predicted a peak of 7.8 billion by 2050, a number that current estimates show will be reached around 2030.[58]
Population control
Human population control is the practice of artificially altering the rate of growth of a human population. Historically, human population control has been implemented by limiting the population's birth rate, by contraception or by government mandate, and has been undertaken as a response to factors including high or increasing levels of poverty, environmental concerns, religious reasons, and overpopulation. The use of abortion in some strategies has made human population control a controversial issue, with organisations such as the Roman Catholic Church explicitly opposing the artificial limitation of the human population.[59]
Largest populations by country
Rank | Country / Territory | Population | Date | % of world population |
Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ![]() |
1,425,247,640 | 17.5% | 18 Aug 2024 | Chinese Official Population Clock |
2 | ![]() |
1,203,710,000 | March 2011 | 17% | Census of India Organisation |
3 | ![]() |
336,812,842 | 4.15% | 18 Aug 2024 | United States Official Population Clock |
4 | ![]() |
238,400,000 | May 2010 | 2.88% | SuluhNusantara Indonesia Census report |
5 | ![]() |
217,807,000 | February 18, 2011 | 2.69% | Brazilian Official Population Clock |
6 | ![]() |
238,337,625 | 2.93% | 18 Aug 2024 | Official Pakistani Population Clock |
7 | ![]() |
158,570,535 | July 2011 | 1.95% | 2011 CIA World Factbook estimate |
8 | ![]() |
155,215,000 | July 2011 | 1.91% | 2011 CIA World Factbook estimate |
9 | ![]() |
141,927,297 | January 1, 2010 | 1.747% | Federal State Statistics Service of Russia |
10 | ![]() |
127,380,000 | June 1, 2010 | 1.57% | Official Japan Statistics Bureau |
Approximately 4.03 billion people live in these ten countries, representing 58.7% of the world's population as of November 2010.
Most densely populated countries
Rank | Country/Region | Population | Area (km2) | Density (Pop per km2) |
Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ![]() |
5,183,700 | 707.1 | 7,331 | |
2 | ![]() |
142,325,250 | 147,570 | 1,069 | [61] |
3 | ![]() |
1,288,000 | 2,040 | 631 | [62] |
4 | ![]() |
4,223,760 | 6,020 | 702 | |
5 | ![]() |
22,955,395 | 36,190 | 640 | [63] |
6 | ![]() |
48,456,369 | 99,538 | 487 | [62][64] |
7 | ![]() |
4,224,000 | 10,452 | 404 | [62] |
8 | ![]() |
Template:Popareadens | [65] | ||
9 | ![]() |
9,998,000 | 26,338 | 380 | [62] |
10 | ![]() |
7,697,600 | 20,770 | 371 | [66] |
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bc/Population_density.png/425px-Population_density.png)
Country | Population | Area (km2) | Density (Pop. per km2) |
Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
Template:Popareadens | Growing country | ||
![]() |
142,325,250 | 143,998 | 1,069 | Fast growing country |
![]() |
127,170,110 | 377,873 | 337 | Declining in population |
![]() |
94,013,200 | 300,076 | 313 | Fast growing country |
![]() |
85,789,573 | 331,689 | 259 | Growing country |
![]() |
62,041,708 | 243,610 | 255 | Growing country |
![]() |
49,354,980 | 99,538 | 493 | Steady in population |
![]() |
22,955,395 | 35,980 | 640 | Steady in population |
![]() |
20,238,000 | 65,610 | 309 | Growing country |
![]() |
Template:Popareadens | Steady in population |
Growth
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/11/World_population_%28UN%29.svg/300px-World_population_%28UN%29.svg.png)
Different geographical regions have different rates of population growth. According to the United Nations, the growth in population of the different regions of the world from 2000 to 2005 was:
- 237.771 million in Asia.
- 92.293 million in Africa.
- 38.052 million in Latin America.
- 16.241 million in Northern America.
- 3.264 million in Europe.
- 1.955 million in Oceania.
- 383.047 million in the entire world.
In the 20th century, the world saw the biggest increase in its population in human history, due to the lessening of the mortality rate in many countries by improved sanitation and medical advances, and a massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution.[67][68][69]
In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world's population was growing at an annual rate of 1.14% (or about 75 million people),[70] down from a peak of 88 million per year in 1989. By 2000, there were ten times as many people on Earth as there were in 1700. According to data from the CIA's 2005–2006 World Factbooks, the world human population increased by an average of 203,800 people every day in the mid-2000s.[71] The CIA Factbook increased this to 211,090 people every day in 2007, and again to 220,980 people every day in 2009.
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2e/Countriesbyfertilityrate.svg/500px-Countriesbyfertilityrate.svg.png)
7-8 Children 6-7 Children | 5-6 Children 4-5 Children | 3-4 Children 2-3 Children | 1-2 Children 0-1 Children |
Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19% in 1963, but growth remains high in Latin America, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.[72]
In some countries, there is negative population growth (i.e. net decrease in population over time), especially in Central and Eastern Europe - this is mainly due to low fertility rates). During the 2010s, Japan and some countries in Western Europe are also expected to encounter negative population growth due to sub-replacement fertility rates.
In 2006, the United Nations stated that the rate of population growth is diminishing due to the ongoing global demographic transition. If this trend continues, the rate of growth may diminish to zero by 2050, concurrent with a world population plateau of 9.2 billion.[73] However, this is only one of many estimates published by the UN. In 2009, UN population projections for 2050 ranged from about 8 billion to 10.5 billion.[74]
-
Population (est.) 10,000 BC–AD 2000.
-
Population (est.) 10,000 BC–AD 2000 in log y scale
-
World population 1950–2000
-
Increase rate 1950–2000
-
Estimated and projected populations of the world and its continents (except Antarctica) from 1950 to 2100. The shaded regions correspond to range of projections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Forecasts
Year | UN est (millions) |
Diff. | US est (millions) |
Diff. |
---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 6,123 | - | 6,090 | - |
2010 | 6,896 | 773 | 6,852 | 763 |
2020 | 7,657 | 761 | 7,593 | 740 |
2030 | 8,321 | 665 | 8,249 | 656 |
2040 | 8,874 | 553 | 8,801 | 552 |
2050 | 9,306 | 432 | 9,256 | 456 |
In the long run, the future population growth of the world is difficult to predict. The United Nations and the US Census Bureau both give different estimates. According to the latter, world population will hit seven billion in July 2012,[77] while the UN asserted that this occurred in late 2011.[6]
Average global birth rates are declining slightly, but vary greatly between developed countries (where birth rates are often at or below replacement levels) and developing countries (where birth rates typically remain high). Different ethnicities also display varying birth rates. Death rates can change unexpectedly due to disease, wars and other mass catastrophes, or advances in medicine.
The UN has issued multiple projections of future world population, based on different assumptions. From 2000 to 2005, the UN consistently revised these projections downward, until the 2006 revision, issued on March 14, 2007, revised the 2050 mid-range estimate upwards by 273 million.
According to some scenarios, disasters triggered by the growing population's demand for scarce resources will eventually lead to a sudden population crash, or even a Malthusian catastrophe, where overpopulation would compromise global food security, leading to mass starvation.
Year | World | Asia | Africa | Europe | Latin America | Northern America | Oceania |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 6,115 | 3,698 (60.5%) | 819 (13.4%) | 727 (11.9%) | 521 (8.5%) | 319 (5.2%) | 31 (0.5%) |
2005 | 6,512 | 3,937 (60.5%) | 921 (14.1%) | 729 (11.2%) | 557 (8.6%) | 335 (5.1%) | 34 (0.5%) |
2010 | 6,909 | 4,167 (60.3%) | 1,033 (15.0%) | 733 (10.6%) | 589 (8.5%) | 352 (5.1%) | 36 (0.5%) |
2015 | 7,302 | 4,391 (60.1%) | 1,153 (15.8%) | 734 (10.1%) | 618 (8.5%) | 368 (5.0%) | 38 (0.5%) |
2020 | 7,675 | 4,596 (59.9%) | 1,276 (16.6%) | 733 (9.6%) | 646 (8.4%) | 383 (5.0%) | 40 (0.5%) |
2025 | 8,012 | 4,773 (59.6%) | 1,400 (17.5%) | 729 (9.1%) | 670 (8.4%) | 398 (5.0%) | 43 (0.5%) |
2030 | 8,309 | 4,917 (59.2%) | 1,524 (18.3%) | 723 (8.7%) | 690 (8.3%) | 410 (4.9%) | 45 (0.5%) |
2035 | 8,571 | 5,032 (58.7%) | 1,647 (19.2%) | 716 (8.4%) | 706 (8.2%) | 421 (4.9%) | 46 (0.5%) |
2040 | 8,801 | 5,125 (58.2%) | 1,770 (20.1%) | 708 (8.0%) | 718 (8.2%) | 431 (4.9%) | 48 (0.5%) |
2045 | 8,996 | 5,193 (57.7%) | 1,887 (21.0%) | 700 (7.8%) | 726 (8.1%) | 440 (4.9%) | 50 (0.6%) |
2050 | 9,150 | 5,231 (57.2%) | 1,998 (21.8%) | 691 (7.6%) | 729 (8.0%) | 448 (4.9%) | 51 (0.6%) |
Population by region
Below is a table with historical and predicted population figures shown in millions.[78][79][80][81]
The availability of historical population figures varies by region.
Region | 1500 | 1600 | 1700 | 1750 | 1800 | 1850 | 1900 | 1950 | 1999 | 2008 | 2050 | 2150 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
World | 458 | 580 | 682 | 791 | 978 | 1,262 | 1,650 | 2,521 | 5,978 | 6,707 | 8,909 | 9,746 |
Africa | 86 | 114 | 106 | 106 | 107 | 111 | 133 | 221 | 767 | 973 | 1,766 | 2,308 |
Asia | 243 | 339 | 436 | 502 | 635 | 809 | 947 | 1,402 | 3,634 | 4,054 | 5,268 | 5,561 |
Europe | 84 | 111 | 125 | 163 | 203 | 276 | 408 | 547 | 729 | 732 | 628 | 517 |
Latin America and the Caribbean[Note 1] | 39 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 38 | 74 | 167 | 511 | 577 | 809 | 912 |
Northern America[Note 1] | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 82 | 172 | 307 | 337 | 392 | 398 |
Oceania | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 30 | 34 | 46 | 51 |
Region | 1500 | 1600 | 1700 | 1750 | 1800 | 1850 | 1900 | 1950 | 1999 | 2008 | 2050 | 2150 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
World | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Africa | 18.8 | 19.7 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 19.8 | 23.7 |
Asia | 53.1 | 58.4 | 63.9 | 63.5 | 64.9 | 64.1 | 57.4 | 55.6 | 60.8 | 60.4 | 59.1 | 57.1 |
Europe | 18.3 | 19.1 | 18.3 | 20.6 | 20.8 | 21.9 | 24.7 | 21.7 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 5.3 |
Latin America and the Caribbean[Note 1] | 8.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 9.4 |
Northern America[Note 1] | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
Oceania | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Year | World | Africa | Asia | Europe | Latin America[Note 1] | Northern America | Oceania | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70,000 BC | < 0.015 | [84] | ||||||
10,000 BC | 1 | |||||||
9000 BC | 3 | |||||||
8000 BC | 5 | [85] | ||||||
7000 BC | 7 | |||||||
6000 BC | 10 | |||||||
5000 BC | 15 | |||||||
4000 BC | 20 | |||||||
3000 BC | 25 | |||||||
2000 BC | 35 | |||||||
1000 BC | 50 | [85] | ||||||
500 BC | 100 | [85] | ||||||
AD 1 | 200 | [86] | ||||||
1000 | 310 | |||||||
1750 | 791 | 106 | 502 | 163 | 16 | 2 | 2 | |
1800 | 978 | 107 | 635 | 203 | 24 | 7 | 2 | |
1850 | 1,262 | 111 | 809 | 276 | 38 | 26 | 2 | |
1900 | 1,650 | 133 | 947 | 408 | 74 | 82 | 6 | |
1950 | 2,519 | 221 | 1,398 | 547 | 167 | 172 | 12.8 | |
1955 | 2,756 | 247 | 1,542 | 575 | 191 | 187 | 14.3 | |
1960 | 2,982 | 277 | 1,674 | 601 | 209 | 204 | 15.9 | |
1965 | 3,335 | 314 | 1,899 | 634 | 250 | 219 | 17.6 | |
1970 | 3,692 | 357 | 2,143 | 656 | 285 | 232 | 19.4 | |
1975 | 4,068 | 408 | 2,397 | 675 | 322 | 243 | 21.5 | |
1980 | 4,435 | 470 | 2,632 | 692 | 361 | 256 | 22.8 | |
1985 | 4,831 | 542 | 2,887 | 706 | 401 | 269 | 24.7 | |
1990 | 5,263 | 622 | 3,168 | 721 | 441 | 283 | 26.7 | |
1995 | 5,674 | 707 | 3,430 | 727 | 481 | 299 | 28.9 | |
2000 | 6,070 | 796 | 3,680 | 728 | 520 | 316 | 31.0 | |
2005 | 6,454 | 888 | 3,917 | 725 | 558 | 332 | 32.9 | |
2008 | 6,707 | 973 | 4,054 | 732 | 577 | 337 | 34.3 | [3] |
Year | World | Africa | Asia | Europe | Latin America | Northern America | Oceania | Notes |
- ^ a b c d e Northern America comprises the northern-most countries and territories of North America: Canada, the United States, Greenland, Bermuda, and St. Pierre and Miquelon. Latin America comprises Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean and South America.
The figures for North America only refer to post-European contact settlers, and not native populations from before European settlement.
World population by continent
Six of the world's seven continents are permanently inhabited on a large scale. Antarctica's small population, based mainly in science stations, tends to rise in the summer months and decrease significantly in winter, as visiting researchers return to their home countries.[87]
Continent name | Density (inhab./km2) | Population (2011) | Most populous country | Most populous city |
---|---|---|---|---|
Asia | 86.7 | 4,140,336,501 | ![]() |
![]() |
Africa | 32.7 | 994,527,534 | ![]() |
![]() |
Europe | 70 | 738,523,843 | ![]() |
![]() |
North America | 22.9 | 528,720,588 | ![]() |
![]() |
South America | 21.4 | 385,742,554 | ![]() |
![]() |
Oceania | 4.25 | 36,102,071 | ![]() |
Sydney (4,575,532) |
Antarctica | 0 | 4,490 (varies)[88] | ![]() |
McMurdo Station (955)[89] |
Mathematical approximations
Hoerner (1975) proposed a formula for population growth[90] which represented hyperbolic growth with an infinite population in 2025.
According to Kapitsa (1997),[91] the world population grew between 67,000 BC and 1965 according to the formula:
where
- N is current population
- T is the current year
- C = (1.86±0.01)•1011
- T0 = 2007±1
- = 42±1
The transition from hyperbolic to slower rates of growth is related to the demographic transition.
Years for world population to double
Using linear interpolation of the UNDESA estimates, the world population has doubled, or will double, in the following years (with two different starting points). Note how, during the 2nd millennium, each doubling took roughly half as long as the previous doubling, fitting the hyperbolic growth model mentioned above. However, it is unlikely that there will be another doubling of the global population in the 21st century.[92]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c2/Population-doubling.jpg/300px-Population-doubling.jpg)
Population (in billions) |
0.5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 1500 | 1804 | 1927 | 1974 | 2025 | |||||
Years elapsed | 304 | 123 | 47 | 51 |
Population (in billions) |
0.375 | 0.75 | 1.5 | 3 | 6 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 1171 | 1715 | 1881 | 1960 | 1999 | |||||
Years elapsed | 544 | 166 | 79 | 39 |
Demographics
Forecasts of scarcity
In 1798, the economist Thomas Malthus incorrectly predicted that population growth would out-run food supply by the mid-19th century. In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich reprised this argument in The Population Bomb, predicting famine in the 1970s and 1980s. The dire predictions of Ehrlich and other neo-Malthusians were vigorously challenged by a number of economists, notably Julian Lincoln Simon. Agricultural research already under way, such as the Green Revolution, led to dramatic improvements in crop yields. Food production has so far kept pace with population growth, but Malthusians point out that the Green Revolution relies heavily on petroleum-based fertilizers, and that many crops have become so genetically uniform that a crop failure could potentially have global repercussions. Food prices in the early 21st century are rising sharply on a global scale, and causing serious malnutrition to spread widely.[93]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/Population_curve.svg/300px-Population_curve.svg.png)
From 1950 to 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the world, grain production increased by over 250%.[94] The world population has grown by about four billion since the beginning of the Green Revolution and most believe that, without the Revolution, there would be greater famine and malnutrition than the UN presently documents (approximately 850 million people suffering from chronic malnutrition in 2005).[95] The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and hydrocarbon-fueled irrigation.[96]
The potential peaking of world oil production may test the critics of Malthus and Ehrlich, as oil is of crucial importance to global transportation, power generation and agriculture.[97] In May 2008, the price of grain was pushed up severely by the increased cultivation of biofuels,[98] the increase of world oil prices to over $140 per barrel ($880/m3),[99] global population growth,[100] the effects of climate change,[101] the loss of agricultural land to residential and industrial development,[102][103] and growing consumer demand in the population centres of China and India.[104][105] Food riots subsequently occurred in some countries across the world.[106] However, oil prices then fell sharply, and remaining below $100/barrel until around 2010. Resource demands are expected to ease as population growth declines, but it is unclear whether rising living standards in developing countries will once again create resource shortages.[107]
Richard C. Duncan claims the that the world population will decline to about 2 billion around 2050.[108] David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, estimates that the sustainable agricultural carrying capacity for the United States is about 200 million people; its population as of 2011 is over 310 million.[109] In 2009, the UK government's chief scientific advisor, Professor John Beddington, warned that growing populations, falling energy reserves and food shortages would create a "perfect storm" by 2030. Beddington claimed that food reserves were at a fifty-year low, and that the world would require 50% more energy, food and water by 2030.[110][111] According to a 2009 report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the world will have to produce 70% more food by 2050 to feed a projected extra 2.3 billion people.[112]
The observed figures for 2007 showed an actual increase in absolute numbers of undernourished people in the world, with 923 million undernourished in 2007, versus 832 million in 1995.[113] The 2009 FAO estimates showed an even more dramatic increase, to 1.02 billion.[114]
Number of humans who have ever lived
An estimate of the total number of people who have ever lived was prepared by Carl Haub of the Population Reference Bureau in 1995, and subsequently updated in 2002; the updated figure totalled approximately 106 billion.[115][116] Haub characterized this figure as an estimate that required "selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period".[116] Given an estimated global population of 6.2 billion in 2002, it could be inferred that about 6% of all people who had ever existed were alive in 2002.[115] Various estimates published in the first decade of the 21st century give figures ranging from approximately 100 billion to 115 billion.
In the 1970s, claims emerged that 75% of all the people who had ever lived were alive in the 1970s. This would mean that significantly more people would be alive in 2011 than had ever lived before. This view was eventually debunked as unscientific.[117]
An accurate estimate of the number of people who have ever lived is difficult to produce for the following reasons:
- The set of specific characteristics that define a human is a matter of definition, and it is open to debate which members of early Homo sapiens and earlier or related species of Homo to include in the estimate (see also Sorites paradox). Even if the scientific community reached a broad consensus regarding which characteristics distinguished human beings, it would be nearly impossible to pinpoint the time of their first appearance to even the nearest millennium, due to the scarcity of fossil evidence. However, the very limited size of the world population in prehistoric times (as compared to its current size) makes this source of uncertainty of limited importance.
- Robust statistical data only exist for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as Ancient Egypt and in the Persian Empire the focus was on counting merely a subset of the people for purposes of taxation or military service.[118] All claims of population sizes preceding the 18th century are estimates, and thus the margin of error for the total number of humans who have ever lived should be in the billions, or even tens of billions of people.
- A critical factor for such an estimate is life expectancy. Using an average figure of twenty years and the population estimates above, one can compute about fifty-eight billion. Using a figure of forty yields half of that. Life expectancy varies greatly when taking into account children who died within the first year of birth, a number very difficult to estimate for earlier times. Haub states that "life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about ten years for most of human history"[116] His estimates for infant mortality suggest that around 40% of those who have ever lived did not survive beyond one year.
United Nations and world population
The United Nations operates several organisations with various population-related competencies, including the Commission on Population and Development, the United Nations Population Division, and the United Nations Population Fund.
See also
|
Historical:
- Historical demography
- Classical demography
- Medieval demography
- National Commission for the Observance of World Population Year 1974
- The Day of Six Billion
Lists:
- List of religious populations
- List of countries by past and future population
- List of countries by population
- List of countries by population in 1900
- List of countries by population density
- List of countries by population growth rate
- List of countries by fertility rate
References
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{{cite book}}
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- ^ [1]. CIA World Fact-book July 2010 est.
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- ^ "From Traitors to Heroes: 100 Years of Mexican Migration Policies". Jorge Durand, University of Guadalajara. March 2004.
- ^ "Kenya's Violence: Exploding population". The New York Times. January 7, 2008. Gunnar Heinsohn
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- ^ Planetary Boundaries: Specials|publisher=Nature |date= 2009-09-23|accessdate=2011-05-08
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- ^ "Fighting poverty to build peace". Vatican.va, 1 January 2009. Retrieved 2011-10-24.
- ^ Figure refers to Mainland China only. It excludes the special administrative regions and Taiwan.
- ^ Latest figure from the World Bank Development Indicators Database is 1,090 per km².
- ^ a b c d Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (2009). "World Population Prospects, Table A.1" (.PDF). 2008 revision. United Nations. Retrieved 2009-03-12.
{{cite journal}}
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(help) - ^ Population density calculated using surface area and population figures from CIA World Factbook. Republic of China (Taiwan) as of 2005.
- ^ Population density calculated using surface area and population figures from [2].
- ^ Netherlands, cbs.nl, retrieved 2009-10-27
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- ^ "UN population estimates and projections, database query, August 2009". Esa.un.org. 2009-03-11. Retrieved 2010-08-01.
- ^ "World Population Prospects - The 2010 Revision Population Database". Esa.un.org. 2011-05-03. Retrieved 2011-05-06.
- ^ "US Census Bureau - Total Midyear Population for the World: 1950-2050". Census.gov. 2010-12-01. Retrieved 2011-06-05.
- ^ "Notes on the World POPClock and World Vital Events". US Census Bureau.
- ^ a b World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database
- ^ "The World at". Un.org. 1999-10-12. Retrieved 2010-08-01.
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- ^ "Geo Hive: the population of continents, regions and countries (Jul. 1, 2008)". Xist.org. Retrieved 2010-08-01.
- ^ a b Figures include the former Soviet Union in Europe. Caselli, Graziella (2005-12-20). Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set: A Treatise in Population. Academic Press. p. 42. ISBN 9780127656601.
{{cite book}}
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ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - ^ a b "UN report 2004 data" (PDF). Retrieved 2010-08-01.
- ^ fewer than 15,000 individuals according to the Toba catastrophe theory; see also Humans lived in tiny, separate bands for 100,000 years (breitbart.com)
- ^ a b c an average of figures from different sources as listed at the US Census Bureau's Historical Estimates of World Population; see also *Kremer, Michael. 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics 108(3): 681-716.
- ^ The range of figures from different sources as listed at the US Census Bureau's Historical Estimates of World Population put the population at AD 1 between 170 million to 400 million.
- ^ "Life on an Antarctic Station". Antarctic Connection. Retrieved 2011-10-28.
- ^ https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ay.html
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- ^ Letters to Nature: Doubling of world population unlikely Nature, 19 June 1997
- ^ "Assessing the global food crisis". BBC. April 22, 2008. Retrieved April 6, 2010.
- ^ Kindall, Henery W & Pimentel, David (1994). "Constraints on the Expansion of the Global Food Supply". Ambio. 23 (3).
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- ^ "Peak Oil And Famine: Four Billion Deaths". Countercurrents.
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- ^ "Has Urbanization Caused a Loss to Agricultural Land?". Moyak.com. Retrieved 2010-08-01.
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- ^ Julian Borger, diplomatic editor (2008-02-26). "Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN admits". London: Guardian. Retrieved 2010-08-01.
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- ^ Steven Stoft (2008). "Carbonomics: how to fix the climate and charge it to OPEC". p.24. ISBN 0981877508
- ^ P. Crabbè, North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Scientific Affairs Division (2000). "Implementing ecological integrity: restoring regional and global environmental and human health". Springer. p.411. ISBN 0792363515
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- ^ Global food production will have to increase 70% for additional 2.3 billion people by 2050. Finfacts.com. September 24, 2009.
- ^ Food and Agriculture Organization Economic and Social Development Department. “The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2008 : High food prices and food security - threats and opportunities”. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2008, p. 2.
- ^ “One sixth of humanity undernourished - more than ever before”. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2009
- ^ a b Curtin, Ciara (2007-03-01). "Fact or Fiction?: Living People Outnumber the Dead". Scientific American. 297 (3). Scientific American, Inc. (published September 2007): 126. doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0907-126. Retrieved 2008-08-04. Note: text of paper publication slightly different from text of on-line publication
- ^ a b c Haub, Carl (November/December 2002). "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" (PDF). Population Today. Vol. 30, no. 8. Population Reference Bureau. pp. 3–4. Retrieved 2008-08-04.
{{cite news}}
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(help) - ^ "Population Reference Bureau". Prb.org. 2002-12-01. Retrieved 2010-08-01.
- ^ Kuhrt, A. (1995) The Ancient Near East c. 3000–330BC Vol 2 Routledge, London. p. 695.
External links
- Further reading
- World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision (United Nations Population Division).
- Symptoms of The Global Demographic Decline
- Central Intelligence Agency (2004). CIA The World Factbook 2004. URL accessed on February 13, 2005.
- The World in Balance Transcript of two-part PBS' Nova on World Population
- The Environmental Politics of Population and Overpopulation A University of California, Berkeley summary covering historical and contemporary population dynamics, forecasts, resource scarcity, population control, and environmental concerns
- Organizations
- Optimum Population Trust
- The Day of 6 Billion official homepage
- World Population Day United Nations: 11 July
- United Nations (2001). United Nations Population Information Network. URL accessed on February 13, 2005.
- Population Reference Bureau www.prb.org - News and issues related to population.
- Berlin Institute for Population and Development "English". Berlin-institut.org. 2010-03-23.
- Statistics and maps
- World population statistics presented in a treemap interface
- World Population Map, Statistical Graph
- Year-by-Year World Population Estimates: 10,000 BC to AD 2007.
- Trend of growth rate with total global population
- United States Census Bureau (2004). Historical Estimates of World Population. URL accessed on February 13, 2005.
- The AfriPop Project, showing African population statistics
- PopulationData.net (2005). PopulationData.net - Information and maps about populations around the world.
- GeoHive GeoHive.com - World Statistics including population and future predictions.
- World maps, including maps of population from Year 1 to Year 2300
- World countries mapped by population size
- World Population from the US Census Bureau in an interactive Excel dashboard
- Trendalyzer: interactive population graphs
- Population clocks