Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian elections: Difference between revisions
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| [[VTM (TV channel)|VTM]] / [[Het Laatste Nieuws]] / [[RTL Group#RTL BelgiumRTL|RTL]] / [[Le Soir]]<ref name="Het Laatste Nieuws 2023-09-29">{{Cite news |date=2023-09-29 |title=DE GROTE PEILING. Kwart Vlamingen zou voor Vlaams Belang kiezen, malaise voor Open Vld en Groen is enorm |language=nl |url= |
| [[VTM (TV channel)|VTM]] / [[Het Laatste Nieuws]] / [[RTL Group#RTL BelgiumRTL|RTL]] / [[Le Soir]]<ref name="Het Laatste Nieuws 2023-09-29">{{Cite news |date=2023-09-29 |title=DE GROTE PEILING. Kwart Vlamingen zou voor Vlaams Belang kiezen, malaise voor Open Vld en Groen is enorm |language=nl |url=https://www.hln.be/binnenland/de-grote-peiling-kwart-vlamingen-zou-voor-vlaams-belang-kiezen-malaise-voor-open-vld-en-groen-is-enorm~a61d66d4// |access-date=2023-09-29}}</ref> |
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Revision as of 14:06, 30 September 2023
In the run up to the 2024 Belgian federal election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Belgium. The date range for these polls are from the 2019 Belgian federal election, held on 25 May, to the present day. The results of nationwide polls are usually numerically split into the three Belgian regions: Flanders, Brussels and Wallonia. Federal seat projections for the Chamber of Representatives are presented together under these regional polls.
Flanders
The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Flemish Region, as well as for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Flemish Region.
Date(s) conducted | Polling firm | Publisher | Sample size | N‑VA | VB | cd&v | Open Vld | Vooruit | Groen | PVDA | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 - 25 Sep 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[1] | 1,000 | 20.2% | 25.8% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 15.4% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 42.2% | 57.8% | |
29 May - 6 Jun 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[2] | 1,000 | 21.8% | 22.7% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 43.4% | 56.6% | |
13 - 23 Mar 2023 | VUB, UA | VRT /De Standaard[3] | 2,092 | 21.0% | 24.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 16.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 43.3% | 56.7% | |
20 - 27 Mar 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[4] | 1,000 | 21.6% | 25.0% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 43.9% | 56.1% | |
16 - 29 Jan 2023 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique[5] | 514 | 21.5% | 24.8% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 15.2% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 46.9% | 53.1% | |
21 - 29 Nov 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[6] | 1,001 | 22.0% | 25.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 16.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 43.7% | 56.3% | |
7 - 13 Sep 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[7] | 1,000 | 21.5% | 21.6% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 16.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 46.4% | 53.6% | |
6 - 14 Jun 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[8] | 1,008 | 24.9% | 22.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 42.2% | 57.8% | |
14 - 31 Mar 2022 | VUB, UA | VRT /De Standaard[9] | 2,064 | 22.4% | 22.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 43.8% | 56.2% | |
15 - 22 Mar 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[10] | 1,007 | 23.4% | 22.2% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 43.7% | 56.3% | |
1 - 8 Dec 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[11] | 988 | 21.6% | 24.5% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 43.3% | 56.7% | |
7 - 14 Sep 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[12] | 1,000 | 21.2% | 23.6% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
25 May - 1 Jun 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[13] | 1,002 | 21.8% | 26.1% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 42.3% | 57.7% | |
29 Mar - 19 Apr 2021 | TNS | VRT /De Standaard[14] | 1,908 | 21.5% | 24.7% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 44.4% | 55.5% | |
4 - 9 Mar 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[15] | 1,006 | 20.0% | 23.6% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 46.6% | 53.4% | |
2 - 8 Dec 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[16] | 1,007 | 19.9% | 26.3% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 6.4% | 46.1% | 53.9% | |
2 - 8 Oct 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[17] | 1,001 | 22.2% | 27.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 4.9% | 42.8% | 57.2% | |
1 Oct 2020 | De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone) | ||||||||||||||
10 - 15 Jun 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[18] | 951 | 20.0% | 27.7% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 7.7% | 43.7% | 56.3% | |
9 - 28 Apr 2020 | TNS | VRT /De Standaard[19] | 2,040 | 20.3% | 24.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 45.6% | 54.4% | |
4 - 9 Mar 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir / De Morgen[20] | 958 | 20.7% | 28.0% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 1.9% | 7.3% | 40.4% | 59.6% | |
29 Nov - 6 Dec 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[21] | 999 | 22.1% | 27.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 1.3% | 5.2% | 40.9% | 59.1% | |
2–10 Sep 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[22] | 1,000 | 22.7% | 24.9% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 44.4% | 55.6% | |
26 May 2019 | Federal election | 25.5% | 18.6% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 48.3% | 51.6% |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Wallonia
The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Walloon Region, as well as for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Walloon Region.
Date(s) conducted | Polling firm | Publisher | Sample size | PS | MR | Ecolo | PTB | LE | DéFI | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 - 25 Sep 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[1] | 1,000 | 21.8% | 19.7% | 14.9% | 19.8% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 7.3% | 2.0% | 56.4% | 43.6% |
29 May - 6 Jun 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[2] | 1,000 | 25.7% | 19.8% | 12.7% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 58.2% | 41.8% |
20 - 27 Mar 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[4] | 1,000 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 12.8% | 17.6% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 56.8% | 43.2% |
16 - 29 Jan 2023 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique[5] | 502 | 25.8% | 19.7% | 11.3% | 20.1% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 56.8% | 43.2% |
21 - 29 Nov 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[6] | 1,002 | 23.7% | 20.4% | 13.1% | 17.9% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 57.2% | 42.8% |
7 - 13 Sep 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[7] | 1,002 | 22.9% | 22.0% | 13.6% | 18.4% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 0.9% | 58.5% | 41.5% |
6 - 14 Jun 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[8] | 1,008 | 25.3% | 19.2% | 14.4% | 19.1% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 58.9% | 41.1% |
15 - 22 Mar 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[10] | 1,009 | 22.4% | 20.1% | 15.0% | 19.7% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 57.7% | 42.5% |
1 - 8 Dec 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[11] | 961 | 24.9% | 22.3% | 15.5% | 18.2% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 62.7% | 37.3% |
7 - 14 Sep 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[12] | 930 | 21.4% | 20.3% | 16.7% | 18.7% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 1.1% | 58.4% | 41.6% |
25 May - 1 Jun 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[13] | 992 | 24.0% | 18.7% | 15.0% | 19.1% | 10.8% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
4 - 9 Mar 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[23] | 958 | 22.8% | 20.1% | 16.4% | 19.0% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 59.3% | 40.7% |
2 - 8 Dec 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[24] | 995 | 23.2% | 20.6% | 15.6% | 17.2% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 59.4% | 40.6% |
2 - 8 Oct 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[17] | 1,001 | 21.1% | 19.2% | 17.8% | 18.9% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 58.1% | 41.9% |
1 Oct 2020 | De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone) | ||||||||||||
10 - 15 Jun 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[18] | 986 | 23.7% | 20.5% | 15.1% | 18.7% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 59.3% | 40.7% |
4 - 9 Mar 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir / De Morgen[20] | 974 | 25.5% | 19.6% | 15.5% | 18.6% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 60.6% | 39.4% |
29 Nov - 6 Dec 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[21] | 983 | 23.8% | 20.5% | 17.2% | 16.5% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 61.5% | 38.5% |
2–10 Sep 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[22] | 992 | 22.9% | 22.6% | 16.2% | 15.5% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 0.3% | 61.7% | 38.3% |
26 May 2019 | Federal election | 26.1% | 20.5% | 14.9% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 9.9% [nb 1] | 5.6% | 61.5% | 38.5% |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Brussels
The graph and the table below show polling results in the Brussels Region (which may be part of a larger, nationwide poll). Since September 2022, only polling results for Francophone parties are published for polls conducted for VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir.
Date(s) conducted | Polling firm | Publisher | Sample size | Ecolo | PS | MR | PTB- PVDA |
DéFI | LE | N‑VA | Open Vld | VB | cd&v | Groen | Vooruit | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 - 25 Sep 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[1] | 600 | 17.9% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 15.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 62.3% | 37.7% |
29 May - 6 Jun 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[2] | 600 | 18.1% | 18.6% | 19.9% | 17.6% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 60.8% | 39.2% |
20 - 27 Mar 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[25] | 600 | 15.7% | 16.8% | 19.8% | 19.4% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 57.4% | 42.6% |
16 - 29 Jan 2023 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique[5] | 493 | 16.0% | 18.0% | 16.8% | 16.7% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 60.7% | 39.3% |
21 - 29 Nov 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[25] | 601 | 13.0% | 21.6% | 20.3% | 16.1% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 58.8% | 41.2% |
7 - 13 Sep 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[7] | 600 | 15.8% | 22.7% | 21.2% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% | |||||||||
6 - 14 Jun 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[8] | 536 | 18.0% | 19.1% | 22.0% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 64.0% | 36.0% |
15 - 22 Mar 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[10] | 485 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 19.9% | 16.4% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 61.1% | 38.9% |
1 - 8 Dec 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[26] | 485 | 19.3% | 15.1% | 17.4% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 56.9% | 43.1% |
7 - 14 Sep 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[27] | 485 | 19.1% | 18.6% | 18.5% | 15.1% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 62.5% | 37.7% |
25 May - 1 Jun 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[13] | 523 | 18.0% | 17.6% | 17.9% | 15.0% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 60.0% | 40.0% |
4 - 9 Mar 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[23] | 557 | 18.2% | 16.8% | 16.4% | 16.0% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 59.2% | 40.8% |
2 - 8 Dec 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[24] | 533 | 19.5% | 16.8% | 15.0% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
2 - 8 Oct 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[17] | 593 | 21.6% | 19.1% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 64.3% | 35.7% |
1 October 2020 | De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone) | ||||||||||||||||||
10 - 15 Jun 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[18] | 580 | 19.1% | 18.2% | 17.4% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 60.1% | 39.9% |
4 - 9 Mar 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[20] | 531 | 20.3% | 20.5% | 17.6% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 0.2% | 63% | 37% |
29 Nov - 6 Dec 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[21] | 526 | 19.7% | 18.9% | 16.2% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 61.2% | 38.8% |
2–10 Sep 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[22] | 548 | 21.4% | 19.2% | 16.4% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 63.7% | 36.3% |
26 May 2019 | Federal election[28] | 21.6% | 20.0% | 17.5% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | Ecolo | PS | 4.3% [nb 1] | 1.6% | 62.7% | 37.3% |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Seat projections
The graph and table below shows seat projections for the Chamber of Representatives according to a reporting newspaper or polling firm.
By party
Date(s) conducted | Polling firm | Publishers | N‑VA | PS | VB | MR | Ecolo | cd&v | Open Vld |
PVDA- PTB |
Vooruit | Groen | LE | DéFI | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 - 25 Sep 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[29] | 19 | 16 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 76 | 74 | 2 |
29 May - 6 Jun 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[30] | 20 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 82 | 68 | 14 |
20 - 27 Mar 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[25] | 20 | 20 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 83 | 67 | 16 |
16 - 29 Jan 2023 | 3rd party analysis based on Kantar | La Libre Belgique[31] | 21 | 19 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 82 | 68 | 14 |
21 - 29 Nov 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[6] | 20 | 19 | 25 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 80 | 70 | 10 |
7 - 13 Sep 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[7] | 20 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 65 | 20 |
6 - 14 Jun 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[8] | 25 | 19 | 21 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 78 | 72 | 6 |
15 - 22 Mar 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[10] | 23 | 17 | 21 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 79 | 71 | 8 |
1 - 8 Dec 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[32] | 20 | 17 | 24 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 80 | 70 | 10 |
7 - 14 Sep 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[33] | 20 | 16 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 84 | 66 | 18 |
25 May - 1 Jun 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[34] | 20 | 18 | 25 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 81 | 69 | 12 |
4 - 9 Mar 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[35] | 20 | 16 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 83 | 67 | 16 |
2 - 8 Dec 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[36] | 20 | 17 | 25 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 81 | 69 | 12 |
2 - 8 Oct 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[37][38] | 21 | 17 | 25 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 82 | 68 | 14 |
10 - 15 Jun 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[39] | 20 | 19 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 81 | 69 | 12 |
4 - 9 Mar 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[40] | 19 | 19 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 80 | 70 | 10 |
29 Nov - 6 Dec 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[41] | 20 | 18 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 78 | 72 | 6 |
2–10 Sep 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[42] | 21 | 17 | 25 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 84 | 66 | 18 |
26 May 2019 | Federal election | 25 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 88 | 62 | 26 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
By political family
Below are tallies for each ideological 'group' as well as probable coalitions. In bold on dark grey, if the coalition commands an absolute majority.
Note that "asymetrical" coalitions are now frequent: between 2007 and 2011, PS was part of each cabinet but not sp.a (Vooruit); and between 2014 and 2018, the Michel Government included cd&v but not cdH (LE), as well as the N-VA, of which there is no equivalent in Wallonia.
Date(s) conducted |
Polling firm |
Ideologies | Coalitions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Far-left | Greens | Soc- Dems |
Soc Libs | Libs | Chr Dems [nb 2] | Flemish Nation-alist | Far-right | Left- wing |
Big Olive Tree | Olive Tree | Purple- Green [nb 3] |
Vivaldi (+ LE) | National Unity | Tri-partite | Arizona | Sunset | Purple-Yellow | Swedish + LE [nb 4] |
Centre- right |
Right- wing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 - 25 Sep 2023 | Ipsos | 20 | 14 | 30 | 1 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 26 | 64 | 82 | 62 | 66 | 76 (84) | 103 | 70 | 89 | 67 | 71 | 59 | 85 | 67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 May - 6 Jun 2023 | Ipsos | 21 | 15 | 36 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 20 | 22 | 72 | 86 | 65 | 72 | 82 (86) | 106 | 71 | 91 | 70 | 77 | 55 | 77 | 63 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20–27 Mar 2023 | Ipsos | 18 | 15 | 34 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 20 | 24 | 67 | 82 | 64 | 71 | 81 (86) | 106 | 71 | 91 | 69 | 76 | 57 | 81 | 66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
16–29 Jan 2023 | 3rd party analysis based on Kantar | 17 | 19 | 33 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 21 | 24 | 69 | 79 | 62 | 76 | 82 (86) | 107 | 67 | 88 | 64 | 78 | 55 | 79 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21–29 Nov 2022 | Ipsos | 18 | 16 | 34 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 20 | 25 | 68 | 81 | 63 | 72 | 80 (85) | 105 | 69 | 89 | 67 | 76 | 55 | 80 | 67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7–13 Sep 2022 | Ipsos | 18 | 17 | 33 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 20 | 20 | 68 | 81 | 63 | 76 | 85 (89) | 109 | 72 | 92 | 66 | 79 | 59 | 79 | 66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6–14 Jun 2022 | Ipsos | 20 | 16 | 31 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 25 | 21 | 67 | 80 | 60 | 69 | 78 (82) | 107 | 66 | 91 | 69 | 78 | 60 | 81 | 68 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
15–22 Mar 2022 | Ipsos | 21 | 18 | 29 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 23 | 21 | 68 | 82 | 61 | 69 | 79 (83) | 106 | 65 | 88 | 66 | 74 | 59 | 80 | 66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1–8 Dec 2021 | Ipsos | 19 | 17 | 28 | 2 | 25 | 15 | 20 | 24 | 64 | 79 | 60 | 70 | 80 (85) | 105 | 68 | 88 | 63 | 73 | 60 | 84 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7–14 Sep 2021 | Ipsos | 18 | 22 | 26 | 2 | 25 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 66 | 81 | 63 | 73 | 84 (88) | 108 | 66 | 86 | 61 | 71 | 60 | 82 | 67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 May - 1 Jun 2021 | Ipsos | 17 | 19 | 29 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 20 | 25 | 65 | 79 | 62 | 72 | 81 (86) | 106 | 67 | 87 | 63 | 73 | 58 | 83 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4–9 Mar 2021 | Ipsos | 19 | 19 | 27 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 65 | 80 | 61 | 72 | 83 (87) | 107 | 68 | 88 | 62 | 73 | 61 | 83 | 68 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2–10 Dec 2020 | Ipsos | 17 | 17 | 29 | 2 | 25 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 63 | 78 | 61 | 71 | 81 (86) | 106 | 69 | 89 | 64 | 74 | 60 | 85 | 70 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2–10 Oct 2020 | Ipsos | 16 | 19 | 29 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 21 | 25 | 64 | 78 | 62 | 71 | 82 (86) | 107 | 67 | 88 | 64 | 74 | 59 | 84 | 70 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10–15 Jun 2020 | Ipsos | 17 | 19 | 29 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 20 | 26 | 65 | 79 | 62 | 71 | 81 (85) | 105 | 66 | 86 | 63 | 72 | 57 | 83 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4–9 Mar 2020 | Ipsos | 19 | 21 | 26 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 19 | 26 | 66 | 80 | 61 | 70 | 80 (84) | 105 | 63 | 82 | 66 | 68 | 56 | 82 | 68 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 | ESOMAR | 18 | 22 | 24 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 20 | 27 | 64 | 79 | 61 | 68 | 78 (83) | 105 | 61 | 81 | 59 | 66 | 57 | 84 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2–10 Sep 2019 | ESOMAR | 14 | 22 | 23 | 2 | 28 | 15 | 21 | 25 | 59 | 74 | 60 | 73 | 84 (88) | 109 | 66 | 86 | 59 | 72 | 67 | 89 | 74 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 May 2019 | Federal Elections |
12 | 21 | 29 | 2 | 26 | 17 | 25 | 18 | 62 | 79 | 67 | 76 | 88 (93) | 120 | 72 | 97 | 71 | 80 | 68 | 86 | 69 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Notes
- ^ a b Includes the People's Party, which dissolved in June 2019 after the elections
- ^ LE broke with their christian democratic tradition on 17 March 2022
- ^ Example of a Purple-Green coalition: Verhofstadt I Government
- ^ Example of a Swedish coalition: Michel I Government
References
- ^ a b c "DE GROTE PEILING. Kwart Vlamingen zou voor Vlaams Belang kiezen, malaise voor Open Vld en Groen is enorm" (in Dutch). 29 September 2023. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
- ^ a b c "DE GROTE PEILING. Slechtste resultaat voor Open Vld ooit, Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij van Vlaanderen" (in Dutch). 9 June 2023. Retrieved 9 June 2023.
- ^ "Peiling "De Stemming": Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste, Vooruit gaat meest vooruit en PVDA wordt vierde partij". VRTNWS. 12 May 2023.
- ^ a b "DE GROTE PEILING. Kwart van Vlamingen zou voor Vlaams Belang stemmen, beste peiling in anderhalf jaar voor CD&V" (in Dutch). 31 March 2023. Retrieved 31 March 2023.
- ^ a b c "Notre sondage politique : le Vlaams Belang triomphe en Flandre, le PTB enregistre la plus grande progression en Wallonie" (in French). 16 February 2023. Retrieved 16 February 2023.
- ^ a b c "DE GROTE PEILING. Een kwart van de Vlamingen stemt voor Vlaams Belang, Conner Rousseau wordt de populairste politicus van Vlaanderen" (in Dutch). 2 December 2022. Retrieved 2 December 2022.
- ^ a b c d "DE GROTE PEILING. Vooruit scoort historisch hoog, Vlaams Belang wordt nipt de grootste partij van Vlaanderen" (in Dutch). 16 September 2022. Retrieved 16 September 2022.
- ^ a b c d Roelandt, Astrid (17 June 2022). "GROTE PEILING. Open Vld op laagste peil ooit, N-VA bijna terug op verkiezingsresultaat" (in Dutch). Retrieved 17 June 2022.
- ^ "cd&v verliest bijna helft van kiezers en wordt de kleinste partij van Vlaanderen". VRTNWS. 6 May 2022.
- ^ a b c d "DE GROTE PEILING. N-VA weer nipt de grootste partij van Vlaanderen, Vlaams Belang volgt op korte afstand". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 25 March 2022.
- ^ a b "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij in Vlaanderen, PS sterkste stijger in Wallonië". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 10 December 2021.
- ^ a b "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij in Vlaanderen, PS krijgt klappen in Wallonië". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 18 September 2021.
- ^ a b c "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij, cd&v op dieptepunt met 10 procent". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 4 June 2021.
- ^ "Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij, premier Alexander De Croo (Open VLD) de populairste: dit zegt "De Stemming"". VRT NWS (Dutch). 22 May 2021.
- ^ "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang zakt maar blijft de grootste partij". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 12 March 2021.
- ^ "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste, N-VA zakt net onder de 20%". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 11 December 2020.
- ^ a b c "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij, sp.a blijft 'vooruit' gaan". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 20 October 2020.
- ^ a b c "GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft afgetekend de grootste, sp.a klimt naar derde plaats". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 19 June 2020.
- ^ "De Stemming: de kiezer ruilt het centrum meer en meer in voor de uitersten". VRT NWS (Dutch). 23 May 2020.
- ^ a b c "Grote Peiling: Vlaams Belang wordt de grootste, ook PVDA scoort, N-VA zakt richting 20%". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 14 March 2020.
- ^ a b c "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang stijgt tot ongekende hoogtes, Open Vld afgestraft". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 13 December 2019.
- ^ a b c "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang wipt over N-VA naar eerste plaats, dramatische score voor cd&v en sp.a". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 13 September 2019.
- ^ a b "Grand Baromètre: le PTB monte en puissance". Le Soir (French). 12 March 2021.
- ^ a b "Grand Baromètre: le gouvernement De Croo fait chuter la N-VA sous les 20%". Le Soir (French). 11 December 2020.
- ^ a b c "Ipsos: De Grote Peiling - Le Grand Baromètre" (PDF). Het Laatste Nieuws (in Dutch and French). 31 March 2023. Retrieved 1 April 2023.
- ^ "Grand Baromètre: le PS décroche à Bruxelles mais redécolle en Wallonie". Le Soir (French). 10 December 2021.
- ^ "Grand Baromètre: le PS chute en Wallonie, la N-VA et le Belang baissent en Flandre". Le Soir (French). 18 September 2021.
- ^ "Federale verkiezingen 2019: alle uitslagen". 26 May 2019. Retrieved 10 December 2019.
- ^ "seat projections". 29 September 2023.
- ^ "Extreme droite et extreme gauche conditionnent la campagne de 2024". 10 June 2023.
- ^ "Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique, 16–29 January 2023". 17 February 2023. Retrieved 17 February 2023.
- ^ "De Grote Peiling. Regering-De Croo verliest 7 zetels, maar behoudt meerderheid". 11 December 2021.
- ^ "BELGIUM · Ipsos poll 17/09/2021: VB largest party in Flanders (23.6%), PS in Wallonia (21.4%), Ecolo in Brussels (19.1%)". 17 September 2021.
- ^ "Amper helft Groen- en Vooruitkiezers heeft vertrouwen in regering, Vivaldi verliest zes zetels in peiling". 5 June 2021.
- ^ "Seat projections". 12 March 2021.
- ^ "#GrandBaromètre IProjection en sièges à la Chambre". 12 December 2020.
- ^ "De Grote Peiling. Regering-De Croo verliest 5 zetels, maar behoudt ruime meerderheid". 12 October 2020.
- ^ "Grand Baromètre: le gouvernement De Croo serait moins représentatif si les élections avaient lieu demain". 12 October 2020.
- ^ "#GrandBaromètre Ipsos RTL-Soir-HLN: The Projection and Sessions à la Chambre". 14 March 2020.
- ^ "Les francophones bien à gauche, La Flandre à droite". Le Soir (French). 14 March 2020.
- ^ "Le Vlaams Belang s'envole, la Flandre à droite toute". Le Soir (French). 15 December 2019.
- ^ "Grand Baromètre: le Vlaams Belang et la N-VA obtiennent la majorité flamande à la Chambre (infographie)". Le Soir (French). 14 September 2019.