2008 New Zealand general election
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
120 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
A general election will be held in New Zealand on November 8, 2008 to determine the composition of the 49th New Zealand Parliament, and thus the makeup of the government of New Zealand for the three years to 2011. Since 1999, the social democratic Labour Party led by Helen Clark has dominated various, mainly minority, governments (first with the Alliance; since 2002 with the Progressive Party); and since 2005 also supported by other parties. If Labour can form a government after this election, they will start a fourth consecutive term in office. As at every election since 1938, Labour will compete for votes against the centre-right National Party, headed on this occasion by John Key. Labour and National will have to defend their share of the seats in parliament from the threats of other parties, which, by the 2008 election, occupy over a sixth of the seats.
New Zealand uses the Mixed Member Proportional system to elect a 120 member parliament; seventy of the new members will represent geographic communities of roughly 57,000, and the remaining fifty MPs will come off party lists. New Zealanders regularly cast between a fifth and a third of their votes for parties other than Labour or National (the proportion achieved a high of 37.8 percent in 2002). This, combined with the fact that a party has not won an absolute majority of votes cast since 1951 implies a high probability that any major party will have to seek accommodations with "third" parties in order to form a government. The current minority government has fifty seats in the House of Representatives, eleven short of an absolute majority; an agreement with New Zealand First (seven seats), another agreement with United Future (two seats), and a third with the Green Party (six seats) affords the government the confidence and supply that it needs to remain in office.
Dates
New Zealand elections traditionally occur after September in the third year following the last election; snap elections occur rarely; the only three elections out of sync in the last sixty years took place in 1951, 1984 and 2002, and the last two came only a few months early. Convention in New Zealand expects Parliaments to run for a full three years unless the government loses the confidence of the House, although this has not happened in the modern political era.
The Constitution Act 1986 defines the term of Parliament as "three years from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." Since the writs for the 2005 election were returned on 6 October 2005,[1] the current Parliament will expire on 6 October 2008, making the final possible date for the general election 15 November 2008.
On Friday 12 September 2008, Prime Minister Helen Clark announced that the general election would be held on 8 November 2008. The full election timetable is:
- Dissolution of parliament - Friday, 3 October.
- Writ day - Wednesday, 8 October.
- Nominations day - Tuesday, 14 October.
- Election day - Saturday, 8 November.
- Official results declared and writs returned by Saturday, 22 November.
- The 49th Parliament must convene no later than Saturday 3 January 2009.[2]
Political parties
see also Party lists in the New Zealand general election 2008
Nineteen registered political parties will contest the party vote:[3]
In order to gain a seat in parliament, a party needs either five percent of the party vote, or to win one electorate seat.
Retiring MPs
As of July 2008, thirteen Members of Parliament have announced that they will not seek re-election to the House of Representatives in 2008, namely:
- from Labour, 9 members:
- Tim Barnett (Christchurch Central)
- David Benson-Pope (Dunedin South)
- Mark Gosche (Maungakiekie)[4]
- Marian Hobbs (Wellington Central)
- Steve Maharey (Palmerston North)
- Jill Pettis (list MP)
- Dover Samuels (list MP)
- Paul Swain (Rimutaka)
- Margaret Wilson (list MP)
- from National, 4 members:
- Mark Blumsky (list MP)
- Bob Clarkson (Tauranga)
- Katherine Rich (list MP)
- Clem Simich (list MP)
Several list MPs elected in 2005 have already resigned; for a full list, see 48th New Zealand Parliament#Changes during term.
Issues
Taxation and the economy
On 5 August, the Treasury announced that the New Zealand economy had entered a recession. [5] Economic downturn has led to high-profile job losses, such as the closure of factories in Foxton,[6] in west Dunedin [7] and in southern Hawke's Bay.[8] At the same time, inflation hit an eighteen-year high,[9] with an upwards tug on the prices of basics such as food and petrol, the latter crossing the two-dollar-per-litre barrier in late May.[10]
On October 6, two days before National was to reveal the details of the tax-cut plan it had over and above the governing coalition's three-stage series of tax cuts revealed in the 2008 Budget[11], the Government disclosed its full fiscal situation; it showed that it expected to take $3.1 billion less tax in 2009, forcing the government to borrow $5.9 billion in 2009, rising to $7.3 billion by 2013. This will mean higher costs for KiwiSaver, Working For Families, the 20 hours free early-childhood plan, and higher numbers of people forced onto benefits by any prospective economic downturn. Over the next fiscal year, GDP is expected to rise by just 0.1%, while median house prices drop by an estimated 10-15%. [12][13]
John Key responded to the news by saying that the numbers were "a bit worse than we had anticipated", and "I'm confident we can deliver a programme of tax cuts.". [14] The same day, Helen Clark reiterated her opinion on tax cuts beyond the government's proposal, saying "now is not the time to go out and recklessly borrow to offer tax cuts"[15], an opinion she had first voiced in early August[16] when the National Party used its annual conference to promise to speed up the implementation of the tax cuts, and to borrow several billion dollars to fund infrastructure projects such as a $1.5 billion broadband plan and a new prison in its first term.[17] On October 9, National released its policy, promising people on the average wage or higher around $47 a week extra in the hand, funded through a combination of cutting contributions to KiwiSaver, by eliminating a tax credit for science and development, and changing Working For Families entitlements, despite a July promise to leave the scheme "unchanged".[18]
At her party's campaign launch on October 12, Helen Clark became the latest world leader to guarantee bank deposits, unveiling a plan worth $150 billion whereby all retail deposits would be unconditionally covered.[19] The plan would be voluntary to join; within two days, reports appeared stating that all of New Zealand's major trading banks had signed up.[20] Also signed up to the plan was the National Party, with deputy leader and finance spokesperson Bill English saying that there was "still time to change the...scheme if banks find it hard to borrow overseas".[21]
"This election is about trust"
See also Electoral Finance Act and 2005 New Zealand election funding controversy
On calling the 2008 election, Prime Minister Helen Clark declared that the 2008 election would be about "trust", [22] saying that National's recent commitments to preserve Labour party programmes such as KiwiSaver and Kiwibank were "insincere". Clark's statement follows on several leaked recordings from the National Party's annual conference in early August where deputy party leader Bill English was caught saying that the National Party would like to sell Kiwibank "eventually but not now". [23] A TV3 poll released at the end of August showed that 45.7 percent of respondents answered yes to the question "do you think National has a secret agenda?", ten percent more than answered no, with 18.5 percent saying they did not know. [24]
Key's troubles increased when John Key was accused of lying about his shareholding in Tranz Rail, by not disclosing nearly half of the shares he and his family trusts owned in the company, even though this presented a clear conflict of interest with Key's role as his party's spokesperson on transport, in which time he asked several questions in the House about the government's plans regarding rail infrastructure. [25]
The National Party did not face allegations of secrecy alone: New Zealand First leader Winston Peters faced a two-pronged attack on his party's credibility, first over allegations that his party did not declare a $100,000 donation from millionaire ex-patriate property developer Owen Glenn to cover Winston Peters' legal costs in a challenge to the result in the seat of Tauranga. This was referred to a jury of Peters' peers in the form of the powerful House of Representatives Privileges Committee. On September 22, the committee determined that Peters had "provided misleading information" and recommended he be censured[26]; this was done by the House of Representatives in a 62-56 vote two days later.[27] The second allegation revolved around the party's failure to declare the use of a secret trust to funnel large donations into New Zealand First's bank account, even though no donations over $10,000 to New Zealand First has been declared, as the law requires. This case was referred to the Serious Fraud Office for further investigation; on October 11, New Zealand First was cleared of charges that Peters called a "waste of time"[28] and on October 24, the New Zealand First party was cleared of any wrong doing by the Electoral Commission, which was investigating donations that the party failed to declare. [29]. Ironically, ACT party leader Rodney Hide was found to have breached Electoral laws for not declaring a donation of a rent-free office in Wellington for several years before 2005. [30]
Prospective coalitions
With the expectation that no party will get a majority of seats in the House in their own right, and with Labour ruling out forming a grand coalition with National,[citation needed] pundits have begun to speculate on the shape of the next government. Five of the six smaller parties have already declared their allegiances: ACT and UnitedFuture to the right, and Progressives, Greens and New Zealand First to the left. the ACT Party supports a change to a National-led government,[31] and the Progressive Party, led by Jim Anderton has links to Labour as part of the current government coalition. As well, UnitedFuture has announced that it will side with National after supporting the Labour government for six years. [32] The Green Party, which has abstained from opposing the government in supply and confidence votes through the life of the 48th Parliament, said on October 20 that the only party of the two main parties it could work with was Labour[33] In the light of New Zealand First's run-in with the Serious Fraud Office, John Key ruled out that party as a government support partner on 31 August 2008, saying "the sheer weight of allegations and the actions of Mr Peters in the last few months means that I have lost that confidence in him". [34] At that time, Peters' future seemed under a cloud; after his party being cleared of charges of serious fraud, National restated its position, saying that the result of the case has not altered it.[35]
Another potential major player in a post-election government, the Māori Party, stands a realistic chance of winning all seven Māori seats — according to polls commisioned by the Māori news show Marae[36] Such a wealth of electoral seats could provoke an overhang and hand the Māori Party the balance of power. The party's MP for Te Tai Tokerau, Hone Harawira, stated at the end of September that the party could work with both Labour and National.[37] On September 28, National announced a commitment to abolish the Māori seats in time for the 2014 election;[38] Māori Party co-leader Tariana Turia, whose party benefits most from the existence of the seats, remained unimpressed: "They think again that they can deny us the right to participate. If they want a relationship with the Maori Party then very clearly they're starting off on the wrong foot". [38] A Marae poll released on October 12 showed 62 percent of those polled were resistant to the idea of a National-Māori government; co-leader Pita Sharples responded to the poll by saying his party would be "stupid" to ignore the poll figures. [39]
The Child Discipline Act
This article needs to be updated. |
The Citizens Initiated Referenda Act 1993 allows any person to start a petition asking that a national referendum be held. Once the Clerk of the House of Representatives has approved the referendum question, 10% of registered voters must sign a petition before the authorities can authorise holding such a referendum. A movement exists for a referendum on the reputedly controversial Child Discipline Act of 2007; such referendum could theoretically take place on the same date as the election.[40] This now appears unlikely,[41] as the Prime Minister has stated any referendum will occur using postal voting in 2009[citation needed]. The Kiwi Party continues to attempt to portray child discipline as an election issue.
Labour's legacy
The Labour Party has authored several pieces of social legislation such as a long-term savings scheme called KiwiSaver, a new education policy called Schools Plus and a family tax-credit scheme called Working for Families. John Key called the latter "a giant welfare package".[42] At the end of July 2008, Key announced a change in policy from his party, saying that no changes to Working For Families would now take place.
Key went on to guarantee state ownership of KiwiRail (which the Government had re-purchased in mid-2008 after a period of 15 years in private hands) as well as Kiwibank, despite an off-the-cuff (and retracted) statement from Key's deputy Bill English that a National government would sell off Kiwibank "eventually". [23]
Electoral Finance Act
See Electoral Finance Act and 2005 New Zealand election funding controversy
Electorates
Boundary changes
The Representation Commission altered many of the boundaries of New Zealand's parliamentary electorates following the 2006 Census; the large growth in population between censuses lead to significant boundary changes, particularly in Auckland, the area around Christchurch and the central North Island. In May 2007, the Representation Commission announced the boundary changes [43] to take effect for the next general election, with the boundaries finalised in September 2007.
The Commission announced the formation of a new electorate in Greater Auckland, bringing the number of geographical constituencies to seventy. The new seat, originally dubbed "Howick" (after the Auckland suburb), would have included parts of the existing Pakuranga, Manukau East and Clevedon electorates. After Pakuranga electors made strong objections to the proposed changes (which would have seen the inclusion of the population centres Panmure, Point England and Glen Innes into the electorate) the Commission largely reverted proposed changes to the boundaries of the Pakuranga electorate. The Commission opted to alleviate population pressures by moving the the Auckland City suburb of Otahuhu into Manukau East. The revised new seat received the name "Botany" to reflect its focus on the growing population-centres of Botany Downs-Dannemora. On paper, Botany counts as a safe National seat.
Even though the number of South Island electorates remains fixed, the decline in the population of electorates south of Christchurch has resulted in the boundaries of electorates from Invercargill north to Rakaia shifting northwards. The seats of Aoraki, Otago, Rakaia and Banks Peninsula all gravitated towards Christchurch. In the process:
- Aoraki received the new name of Rangitata
- Otago received the new name of Waitaki
- Rakaia received the new name of Selwyn
- Banks Peninsula received the new name of Port Hills
Other seats in the lower South Island increased dramatically in size.
The situation after 2005
In 2005 four MPs won seats with majorities of under a thousand: Labour's Darren Hughes beat National candidate Nathan Guy in Ōtaki by 382 votes (1.00%), and in Hamilton West, Martin Gallagher of the Labour Party won an 825 vote majority (2.46%) over National's Tim Macindoe. Both of these seats will see a rematch in 2008.
The swing to National in the central North Island saw two Bay of Plenty seats produce close results: in Rotorua, the sitting Labour MP Steve Chadwick prevailed by just 662 votes (2.17%) over National's Gil Stehbens, and in Tauranga, property developer Bob Clarkson defeated New Zealand First's leader and seven-term MP for Tauranga Winston Peters by 730 votes (2.02%). In 2008, Chadwick will face diplomat Todd McClay, while National has selected Simon Bridges to defend their 2005 gain against another challenge from Peters.
Besides the three Labour-held narrow-margin seats mentioned above (Otaki, Hamilton West and Rotorua), National has prospects of gaining Taupō, where boundary changes have added the National-leaning town of Cambridge and with it nearly 20,000 different voters — putting sitting MP Mark Burton's 2005 majority of just 1,285 votes (4.43%) at risk. Similarly, the seat of West Coast-Tasman gave Labour's Damien O'Connor a majority of 2,154 (6.77%); if National experiences a larger swing in the seat in 2008, O'Connor could end up losing to National candidate and to the current list MP Chris Auchinvole.
Part of National's core vote comes from provincial centres. In 1990, when Labour lost power, it lost every seat between the southern fringe of the Auckland urban area and Porirua except Palmerston North; in 2005, National again won several provincial seats off Labour:
National also won Tauranga off New Zealand First leader Winston Peters and the lion's share of the ACT and United parties' core votes[citation needed] (and in the process gained Northcote off Labour).
The newly-drawn seat of Botany on Auckland's eastern fringe could provide an electoral problem for Labour— on 4 July 2008, a crowd of mostly Asian marchers numbered in the thousands[44] protested against Labour's record on crime and sentencing and a perceived upswing in anti-Asian crime. Because of the large Asian population in the new seat, such trends give National candidate Pansy Wong a possible advantage. Boundary changes have also shaken up the electoral landscape of the South Island.[43] Three new seats - Selwyn, Waitaki and Rangitata, drawn respectively out of Aoraki, Otago and Rakaia, three National-held seats in 2005, could do damage to Labour's chances outside of Christchurch and Dunedin.[citation needed]
On Labour's other flank, the three Māori seats that it held last time against a strong Māori Party challenge could fall like they did in 1996 when New Zealand First broke Labour's sixty-year stranglehold. Nanaia Mahuta will again face Angeline Greensill for the new Hauraki-Waikato seat, Māori affairs minister Parekura Horomia faces veteran broadcaster Derek Fox in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and incumbent Mahara Okeroa will face Rahui Katene in Te Tai Tonga in what could be a trying year for Labour.
The seats of Tauranga and Epsom may provide particular resonances: unless Winston Peters re-takes the marginal Tauranga, the New Zealand First Party's chances of a return to the House probably depend on winning 5% of the party vote — a potentially daunting task in the light of current opinion polling. Similarly, the electoral fortunes of the ACT Party may depend very largely on Rodney Hide retaining Epsom. (Amongst other parties very aware of the 5% barrier, United Future appears more secure in the light of Peter Dunne's grip on Ōhariu, and the Progressive Party has a very strong hold via Jim Anderton's "safe seat" of Wigram. The Greens appear less in danger of slipping below the 5% threshold, and lack an obvious winnable electorate seat.)
Opinion polling
See: Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2008
Having come first in the party vote at the 2005 election by just two percentage points, Labour held a slender lead in aggregate polling through the first half of 2006; a two- point lead in the first half of the year turned into a two-point defecit by May. Preferred Prime Minister polling showed Helen Clark as nearly twice as popular as then National Party leader Don Brash.
Things changed in early 2007, when Labour MPs backed Green Party MP Sue Bradford's bill amending the crimes act removing the legal defence of "reasonable force" for parents prosecuted for assault on their children. By the start of 2007, new National leader John Key had improved on Brash's preferred Prime Minister rating by ten points, overtaking Clark as preferred Prime Minister in May; At the same time National jumped out to a sizable lead over Labour ranging from between eight and eighteen points, spending most of 2007 and 2008 with numbers around fifty percent. Labour's popularity slumped, hitting its lowest point in the winter of 2008, before beginning a slow climb into the high thirties in August and September.
As at October 2008, polls have shown a diverse set of projections for election day; some suggesting Labour could form a coalition government, others putting National in control. Of the "minor" parties, only the Green Party polls consistently over the five-percent threshold, with United Future and the Progressive Party frequently failing to register a mention. Both ACT's and the Māori Party's popularity since 2005 remains steady at around two percent, while New Zealand First has failed to poll over the threshold since December 2006. In preferred Prime Minister polling, the most recent polls have shown varied results: some giving Clark a slight lead, other giving Key a sturdy margin.
Candidates
See:
- Candidates in the New Zealand general election 2008 by electorate
- Party lists in the New Zealand general election 2008
See also
External links
- Official site for enrolments and for the Chief Electoral Office
References
- ^ New Zealand Electoral Commission: Post-election deadlines - Election '05 Source
- ^ Clark sets election date: November 8[1]
- ^ "Registered Political Parties - overview and Register". Elections New Zealand. 2008-07-29. Retrieved 2008-08-04.
- ^ Dominion Post 30 May 2008 page A4
- ^ "NZ in recession - Treasury". stuff.co.nz. 2008-08-05. Retrieved 2008-08-05.
- ^ "Tears flow at Feltex Foxton". scoop.co.nz. 2008-08-01. Retrieved 2008-08-05.
- ^ "138 jobs axed in latest meatworks closure". New Zealand Herald. 2008-05-29. Retrieved 2008-08-05.
- ^ "Oringi meatworks closure". scoop.co.nz. 2008-05-13. Retrieved 2008-08-05.
- ^ "Inflation Hits 18 year high". nzity.co.nz. 2008-05-13. Retrieved 2008-08-05.
- ^ "Petrol price up again - 95 passes $2 mark". stuff.co.nz. 2008-05-30. Retrieved 2008-08-05.
- ^ "Budget 2008 Minister's Statement". scoop.co.nz. 2008-05-22. Retrieved 2008-10-07.
- ^ "Cullen: Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 0". scoop.co.nz. 2008-10-06. Retrieved 2008-10-07.
- ^ "No More Safety In Numbers For Cullen". New Zealand Herald. 2008-10-06. Retrieved 2008-10-07.
- ^ "Cullen rains on Key's parade". New Zealand Herald. 2008-10-06. Retrieved 2008-10-07.
- ^ "is there still money for tax cuts?". TVNZ. 2008-10-06. Retrieved 2008-10-07.
- ^ "PM describes Nats' plan as 'Nuts'". 3 News. 2008-08-03. Retrieved 2008-08-05.
- ^ "Faster tax cuts, vows National". New Zealand Herald. 2008-08-03. Retrieved 2008-08-05.
- ^ "Key gives tax cuts, reduces KiwiSaver". New Zealand Herald. 2008-10-09. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
- ^ "Govt deposit liability 'huge but risk low'". stuff.co.nz. 2008-10-12. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
- ^ "Banks sign up for Govt's $150b guarantee". stuff.co.nz. 2008-10-13. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
- ^ "Change deposit guarantee scheme if banks can't borrow - National". Radio New Zealand. 2008-10-14. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
- ^ "Poll all about trust, says Clark". New Zealand Herald. 2008-09-13. Retrieved 2008-09-25.
- ^ a b "English: I didn't choose my words well". New Zealand Herald. 2008-08-05. Retrieved 2008-08-05. Cite error: The named reference "stuff_nzh_english_oops" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
- ^ "Almost half of voters think National has secret agenda: poll". scoop.co.nz/TV3. 2008-08-26. Retrieved 2008-09-25.
- ^ "Committee recommends censuring Peters". stuff.co.nz. 2008-09-22. Retrieved 2008-10-07.
- ^ "Parliament votes to censure Peters". Newstalk ZB. 2008-09-22. Retrieved 2008-10-07.
- ^ "Peters cleared but PM keeps his portfolio". stuff.co.nz. 2008-10-11. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
- ^ "Peters buoyed by donations ruling".
- ^ "Commission clears NZ First secretary over donations".
- ^ "Be The Difference - Party Vote ACT". ACT New Zealand. 2008-10-12. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
- ^
"Clark yearning for a more left-leaning Govt (press release)". sccop.co.nz. 2008-10-6. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
{{cite web}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - ^ "Greens rule out coalition with National". Radio New Zealand. 2008-10-20. Retrieved 2008-10-24.
- ^
"Nats won't shift position on Peters - Key". National Business Review. 2008-8-31. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
{{cite web}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - ^ "Peters won't get portfolios back, despite SFO finding". Radio New Zealand. 2008-10-12. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
- ^ "Marae - election 08". TVNZ. 2008-10-12. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
- ^
"Maori Party could work with Nats or Labour - Harawira". TVNZ. 2008-9-21. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
{{cite web}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - ^ a b
"National to dump Maori seats in 2014". New Zealand Herald. 2008-9-29. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
{{cite web}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - ^ "Maori voters push for deal with Labour". stuff.co.nz. 2008-10-13. Retrieved 2008-10-14.
- ^ Ruth Laugesen (2008-01-27). "Referendum looms on smacking law". Sunday Star Times. Retrieved 2008-02-21.
- ^ "Smacking petition runs out of time". The New Zealand Herald. 2008-06-24. Retrieved 2008-06-24.
- ^ "Key would now keep Working for Families". New Zealand Herald. 2008-07-28. Retrieved 2008-08-05.
- ^ a b New Zealand Herald. "Auckland to get an extra seat in Parliament". Cite error: The named reference "elect_com" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
- ^ "Clean, green but not safe". Eastern Courier. 2008-07-05.