2020 United States presidential election in Ohio

2020 United States presidential election in Ohio
Turnout	%
President before election; Donald Trump; Republican	Elected President ; TBA;

The 2020 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.^[1] Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 18 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

By the time that the primary elections were held in Ohio on April 28, 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump was already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. On the Democratic Party's side, Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee after Senator Bernie Sanders, his last competitor, withdrew on April 8, 2020. In addition, U.S. Representative from Ohio, Tim Ryan was among the Democratic candidates, dropping out on October 24, 2019.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for March 17, 2020. On March 16, Ohio governor Mike DeWine recommended moving the primaries to June amid concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. The governor does not have the power to unilaterally make this decision, and thus went to court to request the delay.^[3] However, a judge rejected the lawsuit.^[4] Later in the day, the state's Health Director ordered the polls closed as a health emergency.^[5] On March 17, the Ohio Supreme Court allowed the primaries to be postponed to June 2.^[6] Then on March 25, in-person voting was canceled, and the deadline for mail-in voting was moved back to April 28.^[7]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Ohio's 82 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.^[8]

2020 Ohio Republican primary^[9]
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates
Donald Trump	713,546	100.00	82
Total	713,546	100%	82

Democratic primary

2020 Ohio Democratic presidential primary^[10]
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates^[11]
Joe Biden	647,284	72.37	115
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)	149,683	16.74	21
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	30,985	3.46
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)	28,704	3.21
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	15,113	1.69
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	11,899	1.33
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)	4,560	0.51
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	2,801	0.31
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	2,030	0.23
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	822	0.09
Andrew Yang (write-in; withdrawn)	502	0.06
Total	894,383	100%	136

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[12]	Likely R	March 9, 2020
Inside Elections^[13]	Likely R	April 3, 2020
CNN^[14]	Lean R	June 11, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[15]	Lean R	April 2, 2020
Politico^[16]	Lean R	April 19, 2020
RCP^[17]	Tossup	April 19, 2020
Niskanen^[18]	Lean R	March 24, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls


Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Other/Undecided^[a]	Margin
270 to Win	May 30, 2020 – June 22, 2020	June 24, 2020	45.5%	44.0%	10.5%	Biden + 1.5
FiveThirtyEight	Until June 22, 2020	June 23, 2020	48.2%	45.6%	6.2%	Biden + 2.6

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac	June 18-22	1,139 (RV)	± 2.9%	45%	46%	4%^[c]	5%
Fox News	May 30 - Jun 2, 2020	803 (RV)	± 3.5%	43%	45%	6%^[d]	6%
Emerson College	May 8–10, 2020	725 (RV)	± 3.5%	46%	43%	–	11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University	Apr 20–25, 2020	797 (RV)	± 3.7%	44%	45%	–	11%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes	March 17–25, 2020	1,025 (RV)	± 3.3%	47%	43%	–	10%
Change Research	Mar 21–23, 2020	510 (LV)	–	52%	44%	–	5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College	March 10–13, 2020	1,710 (RV)	± 2.9%	45%	49%	1%	5%
Public Policy Polling	Oct 10–11, 2019	776	± 3.5%	46%	48%	–	6%
Climate Nexus^[e]	Oct 1–7, 2019	1112 (LV)	± 2.9%	47%	53%	–	–
Climate Nexus^[e]	Oct 1–7, 2019	1112 (LV)	± 2.9%	42%	48%	–	10%
Emerson College	Sep 29–Oct 2, 2019	837	± 3.2%	47%	53%	–	–
Quinnipiac University	Jul 17–22, 2019	1,431	± 3.2%	42%	50%	–	–
Public Policy Polling	Nov 27–28, 2018	648	± 3.9%	44%	48%	–	8%

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Cory Booker (D)	Undecided
Quinnipiac University	Jul 17–22, 2019	1,431	± 3.2%	44%	43%	–

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Pete Buttegieg (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	Oct 10-11, 2019	776	± 3.5%	47%	43%	10%
Climate Nexus^[e]	Oct 1-7, 2019	1112 (LV)	± 2.9%	50%	50%	–
Climate Nexus	Oct 1-7, 2019	1112 (LV)	± 2.9%	46%	43%	11%
Quinnipiac University	Jul 17–22, 2019	1,431	± 3.2%	44%	44%	–

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Kamala Harris (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	Oct 10-11, 2019	776	± 3.5%	47%	43%	10%
Climate Nexus^[e]	Oct 1-7, 2019	1112 (LV)	± 2.9%	50%	50%	–
Climate Nexus	Oct 1-7, 2019	1112 (LV)	± 2.9%	46%	43%	11%
Quinnipiac University	Jul 17–22, 2019	1,431	± 3.2%	44%	44%	–

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Bernie Sanders (D)	Other	Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes	March 17–25, 2020	1,025 (RV)	± 3.3%	47%	41%	–	12%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College	March 10–13, 2020	1,710 (RV)	± 2.9%	46%	48%	1%	5%
Public Policy Polling	Oct 10–11, 2019	776	± 3.5%	47%	47%	–	7%
Climate Nexus^[e]	Oct 1–7, 2019	1112 (LV)	± 2.9%	48%	52%	–	–
Climate Nexus^[e]	Oct 1–7, 2019	1112 (LV)	± 2.9%	45%	47%	–	8%
Emerson College	Sep 29–Oct 2, 2019	837	± 3.2%	47%	53%	–	–
Quinnipiac University	Jul 17–22, 2019	1,431	± 3.2%	46%	45%	–	–
Public Policy Polling	Nov 27–28, 2018	648	± 3.9%	46%	47%	–	7%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	Oct 10-11, 2019	776	± 3.5%	47%	47%	6%
Climate Nexus^[e]	Oct 1-7, 2019	1112 (LV)	± 2.9%	49%	51%	–
Climate Nexus	Oct 1-7, 2019	1112 (LV)	± 2.9%	45%	46%	9%
Emerson College	Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019	837	± 3.2%	48%	52%	–
Quinnipiac University	Jul 17–22, 2019	1,431	± 3.2%	46%	45%	–
Public Policy Polling	Nov 27–28, 2018	648	± 3.9%	49%	43%	9%
Zogby Analytics	Aug 17–23, 2017	805	± 3.5%	40%	44%	16%

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Sherrod Brown (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	Nov 27–28, 2018	648	± 3.9%	42%	48%	10%

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mike Pence (R)	Joe Biden (D)
Emerson College	Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019	837	± 3.2%	46%	54%

with Mike Pence and Bernie Sanders

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mike Pence (R)	Bernie Sanders (D)
Emerson College	Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019	837	± 3.2%	49%	51%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Mike Pence (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)
Emerson College	Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019	837	± 3.2%	49%	51%

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Generic Democrat (D)	Other	Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University	Mar 17-25, 2020	997 (RV)	± 3.7%	49.4%^[f]	48.3%	–	2.1%^[g]
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University	Jan 8-20, 2020	1,031 (RV)	± 3.1%	41.3%^[h]	47.1%	–	11.5%
Public Policy Polling	Oct 10-11, 2019	776	± 3.5%	47%	48%	–	5%
Ohio Northern University	Apr 5–10, 2019	1,505 (A)	± 2.7%	34%	41%	–	18%
Baldwin Wallace University	Apr 24 – May 2, 2018	811	± 3.5%	41%	44%	6%	9%
Baldwin Wallace University	Feb 28 – Mar 9, 2018	1,011	± 3.0%	34%	32%	–	–

with John Kasich and Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	John Kasich (R)	Generic Democrat	Other	Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University	Apr 24 – May 2, 2018	811	± 3.5%	37%	31%	13%	19%
Baldwin Wallace University	Feb 28 – Mar 9, 2018	1,011	± 3.0%	41%	20%	12%	–

Notes

^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e The poll below displays the results for voters who are sure how they will vote. This one incorporates the preferences of those who lean towards one of two candidates.
^ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
^ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%
^ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.

References

^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^ Merica, Dan (March 16, 2020). "Ohio governor recommends delaying Tuesday's primary until June amid coronavirus pandemic". CNN. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
^ "Judge rejects lawsuit to delay Ohio's primary election". WBNS-TV. March 16, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
^ "Ohio health chief to order polls closed ahead of primary amid coronavirus". fox8.com. March 16, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
^ "Coronavirus: Ohio Supreme Court allows delay to primary election". The Columbus Dispatch. March 17, 2020.
^ "Ohio to run all-mail primary through April 28". Politico. March 25, 2020.
^ "Ohio Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
^ "2020 ELECTIONS RESULTS". Ohio Secretary of State. Archived from the original on June 9, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
^ "2020 ELECTIONS RESULTS". Ohio Secretary of State. Archived from the original on June 9, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved April 30, 2020.
^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020

[19] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[key-20] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[21] "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%

[22] "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%

[INCORPORATELEAN-23] The poll below displays the results for voters who are sure how they will vote. This one incorporates the preferences of those who lean towards one of two candidates.

[24] Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.

[25] "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%

[26] Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.

[1] Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[2] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[3] Merica, Dan (March 16, 2020). "Ohio governor recommends delaying Tuesday's primary until June amid coronavirus pandemic". CNN. Retrieved March 16, 2020.

[4] "Judge rejects lawsuit to delay Ohio's primary election". WBNS-TV. March 16, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.

[5] "Ohio health chief to order polls closed ahead of primary amid coronavirus". fox8.com. March 16, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.

[6] "Coronavirus: Ohio Supreme Court allows delay to primary election". The Columbus Dispatch. March 17, 2020.

[7] "Ohio to run all-mail primary through April 28". Politico. March 25, 2020.

[GP-GOP-8] "Ohio Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 28, 2020.

[9] "2020 ELECTIONS RESULTS". Ohio Secretary of State. Archived from the original on June 9, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.

[10] "2020 ELECTIONS RESULTS". Ohio Secretary of State. Archived from the original on June 9, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.

[OH-AP-delegates-11] "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved April 30, 2020.

[12] "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.

[13] "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.

[14] David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.

[15] "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.

[16] "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

[17] "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.

[niskanen-18] 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]

[9]

[10]

[11]

[12]

[13]

[14]

[15]

[16]

[17]

[18]

[a]

[b]

[c]

[d]

[e]

[f]

[g]

[h]

v t e (2019 ←) 2020 United States elections (→ 2021)
U.S. President	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Guam (straw poll)
U.S. Senate	Alabama Alaska Arizona (special) Arkansas Colorado Delaware Georgia Georgia (special) Idaho Illinois Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Montana Nebraska New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico North Carolina Oklahoma Oregon Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Virginia West Virginia Wyoming
U.S. House (election ratings)	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California 25th sp Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia 5th sp Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland 7th sp Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York 22nd 27th sp North Carolina North Dakota Northern Mariana Islands Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia U.S. Virgin Islands Washington West Virginia Wisconsin 7th sp Wyoming
Governors	American Samoa Delaware Lt. Gov Indiana Missouri Lt. Gov Montana New Hampshire North Carolina Lt. Gov North Dakota Puerto Rico Utah Vermont Washington Lt. Gov West Virginia
Attorneys general	Indiana Missouri Montana North Carolina Oregon Pennsylvania Utah Vermont Washington West Virginia
Secretaries of state	Missouri Montana North Carolina Oregon Vermont Washington West Virginia
State treasurers	Missouri North Carolina North Dakota Oregon Pennsylvania Utah Vermont Washington West Virginia
State legislatures	Alaska House Senate Arizona House Senate Arkansas House Senate California Assembly Senate Colorado House Senate Connecticut House Senate Delaware House Senate Florida House Senate Georgia House Senate Hawaii House Senate Idaho House Senate Illinois House Senate Indiana House Senate Iowa House Senate Kansas House Senate Kentucky House Senate Maine House Senate Massachusetts House Senate Michigan House 34th sp Minnesota House Senate Missouri House Senate Montana House Senate Nebraska Nevada Assembly Senate New Hampshire House Senate New Mexico House Senate New York Assembly Senate North Carolina House Senate North Dakota House Senate Ohio House Senate Oklahoma House Senate Oregon House Senate Pennsylvania House Senate Puerto Rico House Senate Rhode Island House Senate South Carolina House Senate South Dakota House Senate Tennessee House Senate Texas House Senate Utah House Senate Vermont House Senate Washington House Senate West Virginia House Senate Wisconsin Assembly Senate Wyoming House Senate
Mayors	Bakersfield, CA Baltimore, MD Baton Rouge, LA Clearwater, FL Corpus Christi, TX El Paso, TX Fort Lauderdale, FL Fresno, CA Honolulu, HI Irvine, CA Lubbock, TX Mesa, AZ Miami-Dade County, FL Milwaukee, WI Phoenix, AZ Portland, OR Richmond, VA Riverside, CA Sacramento, CA Salt Lake County, UT San Diego, CA San Juan, PR Santa Ana, CA Stockton, CA Tulsa, OK Virginia Beach, VA Wilmington, DE Winston-Salem, NC
Local	Clearwater, FL Cook County, IL Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles County, CA Board of Supervisors New Castle County, DE Orange County, CA Portland, OR San Diego, CA City Attorney San Diego County, CA San Francisco, CA Washington, DC
Statewide	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas U.S. Virgin Islands Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Related	Gerrymandering Postal voting Russian interference Voter suppression