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The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
By the time that the primary elections were held in the state on June 2, 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump was already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee , being the only viable declared major candidate left. On the Democratic Party's side, Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee after Senator Bernie Sanders , his last competitor, withdrew on April 8, 2020. The Libertarian Party, which received over 5% of the vote in 2016 , already held its 2020 Libertarian National Convention from May 21 to May 25, nominating Jo Jorgensen .
Montana Governor Steve Bullock was a candidate until he withdrew from the Democratic primary on December 2, 2019.
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention .[3]
Democratic primary
2020 Montana Democratic presidential primary[4]
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates[5]
Joe Biden
111,706
74.48
18
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
22,033
14.69
1
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
11,984
7.99
No Preference
4,250
2.83
Total
149,973
100%
19
Libertarian nominee
The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen , Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.
General election
Predictions
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report [6]
Likely R
July 23, 2020
Inside Elections [7]
Lean R
July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8]
Likely R
July 14, 2020
Politico [9]
Safe R
July 6, 2020
RCP [10]
Lean R
August 3, 2020
Niskanen [11]
Likely R
March 24, 2020
CNN [12]
Safe R
August 3, 2020
The Economist [13]
Likely R
August 7, 2020
CBS News [14]
Likely R
August 9, 2020
270towin [15]
Likely R
August 2, 2020
ABC News [16]
Lean R
July 31, 2020
NPR [17]
Likely R
August 3, 2020
NBC News [18]
Likely R
August 6, 2020
538 [19]
Lean R
August 14, 2020
Polling
Aggregate polls
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Joe Biden
Donald Trump
Other/Undecided[a]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight
until July 24, 2020
July 26, 2020
41.8%
50.7%
7.5%
Trump +8.9
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[b]
Marginof error
Donald Trump (R)
Joe Biden (D)
Other
Undecided
Emerson College
Jul 31 – Aug 2, 2020
584 (LV)
± 4.0%
53%
42%
–
5%
Public Policy Polling
Jul 23–24, 2020
917 (V)
–
50%
45%
–
5%
Spry Strategies
Jul 11–16, 2020
700 (LV)
± 3.7%
52%
42%
–
6%
Civiqs/Daily Kos
Jul 11–13, 2020
873 (RV)
± 4.2%
49%
45%
5%[c]
1%
Public Policy Polling/Election Twitter
Jul 9–10, 2020
1,224 (V)
± 2.8%
51%
42%
–
7%
University of Montana
Jun 17–26, 2020
517 (RV)
± 4.3%
52%
38%
–
10%
Montana State University Bozeman
Apr 10–27, 2020
459 (LV)
± 4.6%
45%
40%
11%
5%
The Progress Campaign (D)
Apr 14–21, 2020
1,712 (RV)
± 4.6%
51%
42%
–
7%[d]
University of Montana
Feb 12–22, 2020
498 (LV)
± 4.4%
56%
34%
–
10%
University of Montana
Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019
303 (RV)
± 5.6%
54%
47%
–
–
Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[b]
Marginof error
Donald Trump (R)
Michael Bloomberg (D)
Undecided
University of Montana
Feb 12–22, 2020
498 (LV)
± 4.4%
55%
31%
15%
Donald Trump vs. Steve Bullock
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[b]
Marginof error
Donald Trump (R)
Steve Bullock (D)
University of Montana
Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019
303 (RV)
± 5.6%
48%
52%
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[b]
Marginof error
Donald Trump (R)
Pete Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
University of Montana
Feb 12–22, 2020
498 (LV)
± 4.4%
52%
35%
13%
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[b]
Marginof error
Donald Trump (R)
Kamala Harris (D)
University of Montana
Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019
303 (RV)
± 5.6%
55%
45%
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[b]
Marginof error
Donald Trump (R)
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Undecided
University of Montana
Feb 12–22, 2020
498 (LV)
± 4.4%
53%
31%
15%
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[b]
Marginof error
Donald Trump (R)
Bernie Sanders (D)
Undecided
University of Montana
Feb 12–22, 2020
498 (LV)
± 4.4%
56%
34%
9%
University of Montana
Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019
303 (RV)
± 5.6%
54%
46%
–
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Hypothetical polling
Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[b]
Marginof error
Donald Trump (R)
Generic Democrat (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
Mar 12–13, 2020
903 (V)
± 3.3%
52%
44%
4%
with Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Kasich, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Howard Schultz and Elizabeth Warren
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[b]
Marginof error
Joe Biden (D)
Bernie Sanders (D)
Donald Trump (R)
Other
University of Montana
Feb 21 – Mar 1, 2019
293 (RV)
± 5.72%
14.7%
8.4%
40%
36.8%[e]
See also
Notes
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ a b c d e f g h i j Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ "Someone else" with 5%
^ Listed as "other/not sure"
^ "Someone else" with 11.6%; Warren with 5%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 4%; Kasich with 4.4%; Harris with 3.8%; O'Rourke with 3.4%; Booker with 2.4%; Gillibrand with 1% Schultz with 1.2%
References
^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Retrieved January 3, 2019 .
^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes" . National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019 .
^ "Montana Republican Delegation 2020" . The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020 .
^ "2020 Statewide Primary Election Canvass" (PDF) . Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved 14 October 2020 .
^ "Delegate Tracker" . interactives.ap.org . Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020 .
^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF) . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved 2019-05-21 .
^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections" . insideelections.com . Retrieved 2019-05-21 .
^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President" . crystalball.centerforpolitics.org . Retrieved 2019-05-21 .
^ "2020 Election Forecast" . Politico . November 19, 2019.
^ "Battle for White House" . RCP . April 19, 2019.
^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center , March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020" . CNN . Retrieved 2020-06-16 .
^ "Forecasting the US elections" . The Economist . Retrieved 7 July 2020 .
^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker" . CBS News . July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020 .
^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map" . 270 to Win .
^ "ABC News Race Ratings" . CBS News . July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020 .
^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes" . NPR.org . Retrieved 2020-08-03 .
^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten" . NBC News . Retrieved 2020-08-06 .
^ "2020 Election Forecast" . FiveThirtyEight . Retrieved 14 August 2020 .
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