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2016 United States Senate election in Ohio

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United States Senate election in Ohio, 2016
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Nominee Rob Portman Ted Strickland
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Rob Portman
Republican



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The 2016 United States Senate election in Ohio will take place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The close of registration for electors in the primary election was December 16, 2015, and the primary election took place on March 15, 2016.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Rob Portman will face former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Green Party nominee Joseph DeMare is also on the ballot.

Republican primary

Republican Senator Rob Portman is running for re-election to a second term in office.[2] He considered running for president in 2016,[3][4][5] but ruled out running for two offices at the same time, even though Ohio law does allow it.[3][6] He ultimately declined to run for president.[2][7] The National Organization for Marriage and other socially conservative groups, unhappy with Portman's public backing for same-sex marriage, have pledged to back a primary challenger. Tea Party groups, who heavily backed Portman in 2010, have said that they are unlikely to do the same if he runs for re-election.[8][9]

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

  • Melissa Strzala, Tea Party activist (failed to gather enough valid signatures)[11][12]

Declined

Endorsements

Don Elijah Eckhart
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Don Elijah
Eckhart 		Rob
Portman 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 4–6, 2016 638 ± 3.9% 7% 60% 33%

Results

Republican primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rob Portman 1,336,686 82.16
Republican Don Elijah Eckhart 290,268 17.84
Total votes 1,626,954 100.00

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

P.G. Sittenfeld
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Representatives (former)
Ohio State Representatives (current)
Ohio State Representatives (former)
Mayors
City Council members
  • Chris Seelbach, Cincinnati City Councilman[33]
  • Yvette Simpson, Cincinnati City Councilwoman[33]
  • Wendell Young, Cincinnati City Councilman[33]
County officials
Notable individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Kelli
Prather 		P.G.
Sittenfeld 		Ted
Strickland 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 4–6, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 6% 16% 50% 28%
Public Policy Polling January 12–14, 2016 1,138 ± ? 10% 10% 61% 18%
Public Policy Polling June 4–7, 2015 360 ± 5.2% — 13% 65% 22%

Results

Democratic primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ted Strickland 742,676 65.04
Democratic P.G. Sittenfeld 254,232 22.26
Democratic Kelli Prather 144,945 12.69
Total votes 1,141,853 100.00

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Joe DeMare, factory worker and environmentalist[43]

Results

Green primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Joe DeMare 3,123 100.00
Total votes 3,123 100.00

General election

Candidates

  • Rob Portman (R), incumbent Senator
  • Ted Strickland (D), former Governor of Ohio and former U.S. Representative
  • Joe DeMare (G), factory worker and environmentalist
  • Scott Rupert (I), truck driver and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[44]
  • Tom Connors (I)
  • James Stahl (Write-in)

Endorsements

Rob Portman
Presidents
U.S. Governors
Statewide officials
U.S. Senators (current)
U.S. Senators (former)
U.S. Representatives (current)
U.S. Representatives (former)
Diplomats
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Ted Strickland
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Ohio State Senators
Ohio State Representatives (current)
Ohio State Representatives (former)
Mayors
City Council members
Notable individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Debates

Key:  I  denotes candidate is invited to the debate;  N  denotes candidate was not invited;  A  denotes candidate absent but was invited;  O  denotes candidate was out of the race.

Details Candidates Participating
Date Place Sponsor Sen. Portman (REP) Fmr. Gov. Strickland (DEM) Tom Connors (NP) Joseph Demare (GRE) Scott Rupert (NP) James Stahl (WI)
October 14, 2016 Youngstown, Ohio WFMJ-TV/The Vindicator I I N N N N
October 17, 2016 Columbus, Ohio WBNS-TV/The Columbus Dispatch I I N N N N
October 20, 2016 Cleveland, Ohio WEWS-TV/City Club of Cleveland I I N N N N

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[82] Lean R September 30, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] Safe R October 6, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[84] Likely R September 30, 2016
Daily Kos[85] Safe R October 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[86] Likely R October 4, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rob
Portman (R) 		Ted
Strickland (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University October 10–16, 2016 624 ± 3.9% 54% 41% 1% 4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,307 ± 0.5% 56% 39% — 5%
CNN/ORC October 10–15, 2016 774 LV ± 3.5% 56% 40% — 2%
890 RV 55% 40% — 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 10–12, 2016 724 LV ± 3.6% 55% 37% 3% 5%
1,007 RV ± 3.1% 54% 36% 3% 6%
Emerson College October 10–12, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 47% 30% 6% 16%
Baldwin Wallace University October 9–11, 2016 1,152 ± 3.0% 48% 36% — 16%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7–10, 2016 1,622 ± 3.0% 47% 33% — 18%
CBS News/YouGov October 5–7, 2016 997 ± 3.9% 49% 38% 2% 10%
Public Policy Polling October 5–6, 2016 782 ± 3.5% 51% 36% — 12%
Monmouth University October 1–4, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 54% 39% 2% 5%
Quinnipiac University September 27–October 2, 2016 497 ± 4.4% 55% 38% — 7%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research September 27–October 2, 2016 800 ± 4.0% 51% 39% 5% 5%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing September 22–23, 2016 850 ± 3.4% 44% 36% — 20%
TargetSmart/William & Mary September 15–22, 2016 652 LV ± 3.4% 47% 32% 4% 17%
821 RV 44% 34% 4% 18%
FOX News September 18–20, 2016 737 LV ± 3.5% 51% 37% 1% 10%
806 RV 50% 37% 1% 10%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps September 10–19, 2016 400 ± 4.0% 51% 34% 4% 11%
Suffolk University September 12–14, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 39% 31% 5% 23%
CNN/ORC September 7–12, 2016 769 LV ± 3.0% 58% 37% — 5%
895 RV 56% 38% — 5%
Bloomberg/Selzer September 9–12, 2016 802 ± 3.5% 53% 36% 3% 7%
Quinnipiac University August 29–September 7, 2016 775 ± 3.5% 51% 40% 1% 8%
Public Policy Polling August 26–27, 2016 1,134 ± 3.0% 48% 39% — 13%
Emerson College August 25–27, 2016 800 ± 3.4% 40% 25% 10% 25%
Monmouth University August 18–21, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 48% 40% 4% 8%
CBS News/YouGov August 17–19, 2016 997 ± 3.9% 46% 39% 4% 11%
Quinnipiac University July 30–August 7, 2016 812 ± 3.4% 49% 40% 1% 10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 3–7, 2016 889 ± 3.3% 48% 43% 1% 8%
Public Policy Polling July 22–24, 2016 1,334 ± 2.7% 43% 38% — 19%
Suffolk University July 18–20, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 37% 33% 6% 23%
CBS News/YouGov July 13–15, 2016 1,104 ± 3.5% 41% 40% 4% 14%
Quinnipiac University June 30–July 11, 2016 955 ± 3.2% 47% 40% 1% 9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–10, 2016 848 ± 3.4% 44% 44% 2% 10%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 708 ± 3.7% 40% 39% — 21%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 40% 43% — 17%
Quinnipiac University June 8–19, 2016 971 ± 3.1% 42% 42% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 781 ± 3.4% 46% 42% — 12%
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,042 ± 3.0% 42% 43% 1% 14%
Public Policy Polling April 26–27, 2016 799 ± 3.2% 38% 38% 1% 23%
Hart Research Associates April 5–7, 2016 500 ± 3.2% 47% 45% — 8%
Public Policy Polling March 4–6, 2016 1,248 ± 2.8% 40% 41% — 19%
Quinnipiac University February 16–20, 2016 1,539 ± 2.5% 42% 44% — 14%
Baldwin Wallace University February 11–20, 2016 825 ± 3.4% 44% 40% — 16%
Democracy Corps October 24–28, 2015 400 ± 4.9% 47% 47% — 6%
Quinnipiac University September 25–October 5, 2015 1,180 ± 2.9% 43% 46% 1% 8%
Harstad Strategic Research September 10–16, 2015 813 ± 3.4% 43% 46% — 11%
Quinnipiac University August 7–18, 2015 1,096 ± 3.0% 41% 44% 1% 10%
Quinnipiac University June 4–15, 2015 1,191 ± 2.8% 40% 46% 1% 13%
Vox Populi Polling (R) June 6–7, 2015 474 ± 4.5% 47% 37% — 16%
Public Policy Polling June 4–7, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 43% 41% — 15%
Quinnipiac University March 17–28, 2015 1,077 ± 3.0% 39% 48% — 13%
Public Policy Polling↑ March 2–3, 2015 946 ± 3.2% 45% 45% — 10%

References

  1. ^ "2016 Ohio Elections Calendar" (PDF). Ohio Secretary of State. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
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  7. ^ Stephen Koff (December 2, 2014). "Rob Portman has decided not to run for president". Cleveland.com. Retrieved December 11, 2014.
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  10. ^ Torry, Jack (May 19, 2015). "Portman has conservative primary challenger". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved May 19, 2015.
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  43. ^ "Green Party candidate in Ohio pursuing 2016 Senate bid". WFMJ. June 9, 2015.
  44. ^ Ludlow, Randy (March 10, 2016). "Truck driver plans independent run for U.S. Senate". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved March 20, 2016.
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  46. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Easley, Jonathan (February 3, 2015). "Portman list of Ohio endorsements grows to 500". The Hill. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
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  48. ^ a b Jeffers, Gromer (October 4, 2016). "Ted Cruz, John Cornyn hosting Dallas fundraiser for U.S. Senate candidates". Dallas News. Retrieved October 7, 2016.
  49. ^ Arkin, James (January 8, 2016). "Bolton Endorses 16 for Re-Election to Congress". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
  50. ^ a b c Min Kim, Seung (July 28, 2016). "Portman taunts Strickland over union backing". Politico. Retrieved July 30, 2016.
  51. ^ Troy, Tom (August 4, 2016). "Operating engineers union favors Portman". The Blade. Retrieved August 9, 2016.
  52. ^ Smyth, Julie Carr (June 2, 2016). "Rob Portman gets surprise union endorsement". Dayton Daily News. Retrieved June 10, 2016.
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  64. ^ Shesgreen, Deirdre (February 25, 2015). "Strickland is running for Senate – & so is PG Sittenfeld". The Cincinnati Enquirer. Retrieved March 1, 2015.
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  66. ^ a b Troy, Tom (February 17, 2016). "Local Democrats split Sittenfeld endorsement". The Blade. Retrieved February 21, 2016.
  67. ^ Gomez, Henry J. (March 13, 2015). "Inbox: John Patrick Carney, last year's Democratic candidate for state auditor, has endorsed @Ted_Strickland in #OHSEN". Twitter. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
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  70. ^ Vitale, Bob (June 4, 2015). "Strickland Promises His Support 'Beyond Marriage Equality'". Outlook Magazine. Retrieved June 5, 2015.
  71. ^ Smyth, Julie Carr (December 14, 2015). "Ohio gay-marriage plaintiff Jim Obergefell backs Strickland over Portman". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
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  73. ^ a b Ludlow, Randy (August 5, 2016). "AFL-CIO comes to Strickland's aid amid defections to Portman". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved August 9, 2016.
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  75. ^ Chavez, Jon (September 2, 2015). "UAW 2B endorses Strickland for Senate". The Blade. Retrieved September 2, 2015.
  76. ^ Sullivan, Sean (March 10, 2015). "DSCC endorses Strickland as Sittenfeld remains in Ohio". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  77. ^ Troy, Tom (March 25, 2016). "Environmental advocacy group endorses Strickland". The Blade. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
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  86. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 5, 2016.
Official campaign websites
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