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| result =
| status = Ongoing
| status = Ongoing
| combatant1 = '''{{flag|Azerbaijan}}'''<br/>'''Supported by:'''<br/>{{flagdeco|Syrian opposition}} Syrian opposition militants{{Cref|a}}<br/>'''Alleged:'''<br />{{flag|Turkey}}{{Cref|b}}<br/>
| combatant1 = '''{{flag|Azerbaijan}}'''{{Collapsible list|title='''Alleged:'''|titlestyle=font-weight:normal;background:transparent;text-align:left;|{{flagdeco|Syrian opposition}} [[Syrian National Army]]{{Cref|a}}<br />{{flag|Turkey}}{{Cref|b}}
}}
{{Collapsible list|title='''Arms suppliers:'''|titlestyle=font-weight:normal;background:transparent;text-align:left;|{{flag|Israel}}<ref>{{cite news |last1=Ravid |first1=Barak |title=Azerbaijan using Israeli “kamikaze drones” in Nagorno-Karabakh clashes |url=https://www.axios.com/israel-kamikaze-drones-nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan-d3ebfd39-2cf8-4bf6-a788-b24d80a8569f.html |work=[[Axios (website)|Axios]] |date=30 September 2020 |archiveurl=https://archive.vn/WfHt1 |archivedate=30 September 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Azerbaijani official says military using Israeli-made drones in war with Armenia |url=https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy-defense/1601485300-azerbaijani-official-says-military-using-israeli-made-drones-in-war-with-armenia |agency=[[i24 News]] |date=30 September 2020 |archiveurl=https://archive.vn/bTCEq |archivedate=30 September 2020}}</ref>
{{Collapsible list|title='''Arms suppliers:'''|titlestyle=font-weight:normal;background:transparent;text-align:left;|{{flag|Israel}}<ref>{{cite news |last1=Ravid |first1=Barak |title=Azerbaijan using Israeli “kamikaze drones” in Nagorno-Karabakh clashes |url=https://www.axios.com/israel-kamikaze-drones-nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan-d3ebfd39-2cf8-4bf6-a788-b24d80a8569f.html |work=[[Axios (website)|Axios]] |date=30 September 2020 |archiveurl=https://archive.vn/WfHt1 |archivedate=30 September 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Azerbaijani official says military using Israeli-made drones in war with Armenia |url=https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy-defense/1601485300-azerbaijani-official-says-military-using-israeli-made-drones-in-war-with-armenia |agency=[[i24 News]] |date=30 September 2020 |archiveurl=https://archive.vn/bTCEq |archivedate=30 September 2020}}</ref>
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Revision as of 21:14, 30 September 2020

2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Part of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the Russia–Turkey proxy conflict[3]

  Territory controlled by the Republic of Artsakh including Armenian-controlled territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh
  Territory claimed by the Republic of Artsakh but controlled by Azerbaijan
  Territory captured by Azerbaijan (per Azerbaijan)
Date27 September 2020 (2020-09-27) – present
(3 years, 9 months, 1 week and 6 days)
Location
Nagorno-Karabakh line of contact, Armenia–Azerbaijan border and Azerbaijan–Iran border
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes		 Artsakh says Azerbaijan captured some positions,[4] some of which were later recaptured[5]
Azerbaijan claims to have captured 7 villages and several heights[6][7][8]
Belligerents
 Azerbaijan
Alleged:
Arms suppliers:
  Artsakh
 Armenia
Alleged:
Arms suppliers:
Commanders and leaders
Ilham Aliyev
(President, Commander-in-Chief)
Col. Gen. Zakir Hasanov
(Minister of Defence)
Najmaddin Sadigov (Chief of the General Staff)
Maj. Gen. Mais Barkhudarov[9]		 Arayik Harutyunyan (President, Commander-in-Chief)
Jalal Harutyunyan (Minister of Defence)
Nikol Pashinyan
(Prime Minister, Commander-in-Chief)
David Tonoyan (Minister of Defence)
Onik Gasparyan (Chief of the General Staff)
Units involved
Azerbaijani Armed Forces
Alleged:
 Artsakh Defence Army
Armed Forces of Armenia
Strength
Unknown
Units:
Alleged
 Unknown
Casualties and losses

Per Azerbaijan:

Units:
    • One combat helicopter damaged[15]

Per Armenia:[16]

  • 790 servicemen killed
  • 1,900 servicemen wounded
Units:
    • 137 tanks/IFVs destroyed
    • 72 UAVs downed
    • 7 helicopters downed
    • 1 aircraft downed

Per other sources:

  • 30+ servicemen killed (Islamic World News)[17]
  • 3–30 Syrian fighters killed (various Syrian sources)[f]

Per Armenia:

  • 103 servicemen killed[18]
  • 120+ servicemen wounded[19]
Units:

Per Azerbaijan:[20]

  • 2,300+ servicemen killed or wounded
Units:
    • 6 command posts, and command-observation posts destroyed
    • ~130 tanks/IFVs destroyed
    • 55 other military vehicles destroyed
    • 200+ artillery pieces, multiple launch rocket systems, grenade launchers destroyed
    • 18 UAVs downed
    • 5 ammunition depots destroyed
    • 25 anti-aircraft systems destroyed
    • 50 anti-tank weapons destroyed
15 Azerbaijani and 7 Armenian civilians killed;[21][22] 49 Azerbaijani[23][24] and 30+ Armenian civilians injured[19]

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ongoing armed conflict between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh, the latest escalation in the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The clashes began on the morning of 27 September 2020 along the Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact. Both sides reported military and civilian casualties.[25] In response to the clashes, Armenia and the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh introduced martial law and total mobilization,[26][27] while Azerbaijan introduced martial law and a curfew.[28] On 28 September partial mobilization was declared in Azerbaijan.[29] The United Nations has strongly condemned the conflict and called on both sides to deescalate tensions and resume meaningful negotiations without delay.[30]

Background

The clashes stem from the dispute over the Armenian-majority Nagorno-Karabakh, an internationally recognised territory of Azerbaijan, which is presently held by the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh.[31][32][33][26] The Nagorno-Karabakh War had ended with a ceasefire in 1994, with Armenia in control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, as well as the surrounding districts of Aghdam, Jabrail, Fuzuli, Kalbajar, Gubadli, Lachin and Zangilan of Azerbaijan. Attempts at mediation, primarily via the Madrid Principles, collapsed when Armenia rejected them in March 2020.[34] According to the 2018 war report prepared by the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights, "Armenia exercises its authority over Nagorno-Karabakh by equipping, financing or training and providing operational support to the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and its forces, but also in coordinating and helping the general planning of their military and paramilitary activities".[35] For three decades multiple violations of the ceasefire have occurred, the most serious being the 2016 Nagorno-Karabakh clashes and the July 2020 clashes at the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.[36] Thousands of Azerbaijanis demonstrated for war against Armenia, with Turkey propagandising in support of Azerbaijan.[37]

On 23 July 2020, Armenia announced the start of a joint air defence system exercise with Russia and an analysis of July 2020 clashes.[38] A week later, Azerbaijan conducted a series of military exercises that lasted from 29 July to 10 August,[39][40][41] and further exercises in early September with the involvement of Turkey.[42] In late September, Armenia took part in joint military exercises on the southern border of the Russian Federation, in Armenia as well as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both self-declared independent states within what most of the international community regards as the national borders of Georgia.[43][44] During the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a statement supporting the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Georgia.[45][46]

Prior to the resumption of hostilities, allegations emerged that hundreds of Syrian National Army members from the Hamza Division were transferred to Azerbaijan,[47] while according to Turkish sources, many YPG and PKK members from Iraq and Syria were transferred to Nagorno-Karabakh in order to train Armenian militias against Azerbaijan.[48][dubious – discuss]

Timeline of military engagements

27 September

According to the Office of the President of the Republic of Artsakh, hostilities commenced when at 08:03 am Azerbaijani armed forces launched artillery and aerial strikes against civilian settlements, including the capital Stepanakert. Authorities urged the population to seek cover in bomb shelters.[49] The Azerbaijani authorities stated that at about 06:00 local time, Armenian armed forces started intensive shelling of Azerbaijani army positions along the entire front line and of Azerbaijani settlements in the zone.[50] Azerbaijan stated that the Armenian side had attacked and that Azerbaijan had launched a counteroffensive in response.[51] Hikmet Hajiyev, senior adviser to Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, accused Armenian forces of launching "deliberate and targeted" attacks along the front line.[52]

The Armenian Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated that the Azerbaijani offensive, also aimed at Stepanakert, began at 08:10 local time (04:10 GMT).[53] In the offensive Azerbaijan deployed manpower, tank and rocket artillery units, aviation and UAVs.[54] The self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh introduced martial law and total mobilization of its male population.[27] On the same day Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev addressed the nation concerning the clashes.[55] In the afternoon martial law and a curfew was also introduced in Azerbaijan. The martial law in Azerbaijan was stated to be effective from midnight, 28 September, while the curfew was stated to be effective in Baku, major cities and some regions from 21:00 to 06:00 local time. In the clashes the Azerbaijani military deployed tanks, artillery, missile systems and aircraft near the front line and entered deeper into Nagorno-Karabakh.[56] Civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh were urged to enter shelters.[56] According to Artsrun Hovhannisyan, in the morning Azerbaijani armed forces also attacked in the direction of Vardenis in the territory of Armenia proper.[57]

By the afternoon on 27 September the Azerbaijani MoD stated it had taken seven villages in Nagorno-Karabakh: Garakhanbayli, Garvand, Horadiz, Yuxarı Əbdürrəhmanlı, Aşağı Əbdürrəhmanlı, Boyuk Marjanli and Nuzgar.[58][59] The Ministry of Defence of Artsakh denied these claims, accusing the Azerbaijani army of propagandising.[60] At 16:29, the ministry announced that the Azerbaijani Military Command proposed that the Armenian command in this zone surrender, in order to avoid the destruction of its garrison in Aghdara and reduce casualties, while affirming that civilians and prisoners of war would be treated in accordance with international humanitarian law and the Geneva Conventions, and resistance would be met by force.[61] In the afternoon, the Azerbaijani MoD stated it had taken a mountain peak in the Murovdag range.[62] The Ministry also stated that Azerbaijani forces had taken effective control of the Vardenis–Martakert/Aghdara highway, connecting Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.[63] The Armenian MoD denied these claims.[64] Subsequently, the Azerbaijani MoD released a video of an Azerbaijani drone destroying a military depot belonging to the Armenian military.[65]

The Deputy Governor of East Azerbaijan, Alyar Rastgoo, stated that as a result of the clashes, a stray artillery projectile had hit the village of Khalaf Beyglu in Khoda Afarin County, Iran, resulting in no financial damage or human casualties.[66]

28 September

Murovdag peak (above) and Vardenis–Martakert/Aghdara M11 highway (below), which came under the Azerbaijani control according to the country's defence ministry.

At approximately 01:00, the Azerbaijani MoD released a video depicting three Armenian military vehicles being targeted on the line of contact by strikes by Azerbaijani military units. The Ministry denied any Armenian claims, including of the number of its casualties, and leveled accusations of Armenian propagandising in the faces of claimed Azerbaijani military successes.[67] At approximately 6:45, the Ministry released further footage, depicting the apparent destruction of Armenian materiel and vehicles.[68] At approximately 08:00, the Ministry stated that Armenian forces fired upon Tartar in the early morning and issued a warning,[69] while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs added that the Armenian forces had purposefully targeted civilian sites and civilians themselves.[70] The Azerbaijani MoD also released a video depicting the apparent destruction of two additional Armenian tanks.[71] The President of Artsakh stated that during the clashes in the morning, Armenian forces regained control over a number of previously ceded positions.[72] At approximately 10:00, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage of the engagement and claimed that Azerbaijani forces had gained strategically advantageous high ground around Talış, while claiming that the Armenians had incurred heavy losses.[73] Additionally, the Azerbaijani MoD alleged that among the Armenian casualties were mercenaries of Armenian origin from Syria and from a variety of Middle East countries.[74]

At approximately 13:10, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing two Armenian tanks being destroyed by the Azerbaijani UAVs.[75] At approximately 14:00, the Armenian media stated that an Azerbaijani UAV had been shot down near Vardenis.[76] Simultaneously, the President of the Republic of Artsakh stated that Azerbaijani forces were facing attacks on all fronts from Armenian forces.[77] At about 15:30, Poghosyan stated that the Armenian military was encountering supply problems.[78] Half an hour later, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that Azerbaijani forces had fired on Armenian artillery units in the direction of Aghdara that had been targeting Azerbaijani-controlled settlements. According to the Ministry, Armenian units incurred heavy losses from artillery fire and were forced to withdraw.[79]

At approximately 17:00, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing destroyed Armenian military vehicles and claimed that additional Armenian military vehicles had been destroyed along the front.[80] At approximately 19:00, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that Armenian forces had fired upon Yuxarı Ağcakənd and Qaramusalı of the Goranboy District.[81] At approximately 20:00, the Deputy Commander of the Artsakh Defence Army, Arthur Sargsyan, stated that the Armenian forces had retaken some positions.[82] Additionally, the chairman of the National Assembly of the Republic of Artsakh, Arthur Tovmasyan, stated that Armenian forces had repelled Azerbaijani forces and had advanced into Azerbaijani territory.[83] Subsequently, at approximately 21:00, the Head of the Command and Personnel Faculty of the Vazgen Sargsyan Military University of the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Armenia, Artsrun Hovhannisyan, stated that Azerbaijani forces had launched a new major offensive operation in the Aras Valley and in the Madagiz–Talış direction.[84] Approximately one hour later, Poghosyan claimed that an Azerbaijani airplane had been shot down near Khojavend,[85] which was later denied by Azerbaijan.[86] Additionally, the Azerbaijani MoD denied allegations that Azerbaijan had used F-16s during the conflict, stating the Azerbaijani Air Force does not possess F-16s.[87]

Iranian media reported that two more rockets landed near homes in Khoda Afarin County.[88]

29 September

At approximately 08:00, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that intensified clashes had continued along the entire length of the front during the night, and that while the Armenian forces repeatedly attempted to counterattack, Azerbaijani units successfully repelled them. Concurrently, Azerbaijani aerial and ground forces were stated to have destroyed a mixed column of Armenian military vehicles travelling from Madagiz in the direction of Aghdere, together with an artillery battery providing fire support.[89] At approximately 09:00, the Ministry stated that starting from 07:30, the territory of the Dashkasan District of Azerbaijan had been subjected to artillery fire from Vardenis, in Armenia,[90] However, this was denied by the Armenian Foreign Ministry, which claimed that it was a fabrication meant to justify expanding the theater of operations, including conducting aggression against Armenia.[91] with Hikmet Hajiyev, senior adviser to Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, stating that it was part of an "ongoing act of Armenian aggression against Azerbaijan where the next attack act against Azerbaijan has been carried out from the territory of a sovereign state", i.e., Armenia."[92] The Azerbaijani MoD then stated that an Azerbaijani offensive on Fuzuli City continued from the early morning, while at approximately 07:00–08:00 in the morning, Azerbaijani forces had destroyed four more Armenian tanks in the Fizuli-Jabrayil area of the front.[93] Approximately half an hour later, the Azerbaijani MoD denied this.[94] The Armenian MoD stated that units belonging to the Artsakh Defence Army had destroyed an Azerbaijani materiel.[95]

On 29 September, the clashes spilled over to Vardenis (above) and Daşkəsən (below), on the Armenian–Azerbaijani state border.

At 10:15, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing two Armenian tanks being destroyed.[96] A few minutes later, Hovhannisyan stated that a second Azerbaijani UAV had been shot down.[97] At approximately 11:00, the Armenian MoD stated that the Azerbaijani military had opened fire on the Armenian military base in Vardenis, across the Armenian state border, also deploying its air force.[98] At approximately 11:00, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that the Armenian 3rd Martuni Motorized Rifle Regiment, stationed in Khojavend District, had been destroyed by Azerbaijani forces.[99] However, this was denied by the Artsakh Ministry of Defence.[100] In addition, the Azerbaijani MoD claimed that it had killed an Armenian colonel, in Jabrayil District,[101] and that Azerbaijani forces had destroyed an Armenian Uragan multiple rocket launcher in Khojavend District.[102] Subsequently, Hovhannisyan stated that Azerbaijani forces had attempted a further attack in southern and northern directions but had been repelled.[103] The Azerbaijani MoD accused Armenia of fabricating footage to improve domestic morale.[104]

At about 12:00, Hovhannisyan stated that one Azerbaijani gunship had been shot down"[105] However, the Azerbaijani MoD denied this, claiming that it had not employed helicopters that day.[106] It also stated that an Armenian tank had been destroyed near Göyarx village in the former Aghdara District.[107] At approximately 12:40, Hovhannisyan stated that Artsakh Defence Army units had downed two helicopters using Igla man-portable surface-to-air missile launchers in the eastern direction, and the Ministry released footage apparently showing this.[108] Hovhannisyan then stated that Azerbaijani forces were bombarding areas near Vardenis.[109] The Azerbaijani MoD stated it had destroyed a command-and-observation post belonging to the 3rd camp of the 1st Regiment of the Armenian Army in the Hadrut settlement in Khojavend District,[110] while the Armenian MoD stated that the Armenian military would be deploying heavier weapons and that its forces were repelling Azerbaijani offensives.[111] The Azerbaijani MoD stated that an Armenian attempt to assault Azerbaijani-controlled military positions from Aşağı Veysəlli in Fuzuli District had been repelled, with Armenian losses.[112] At approximately 13:20, the Armenian MoD stated that the Azerbaijani military had launched an offensives using artillery, UAVs, tanks and armored vehicles.[113] At approximately 15:30, the Azerbaijani MoD claimed that S-300 missile systems defending Yerevan's airspace were being redeployed in the direction of Nagorno-Karabakh and asserted that they would be destroyed.[114] Shortly after, the Artsakh Defence Army released footage apparently showing Armenian forces downing an Azerbaijani gunship,[115] with Hovhannisyan stating that Armenian forces had destroyed Azerbaijani tanks with mortars.[116] At approximately 16:30, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing Azerbaijani artillery units firing on Armenian forces.[117]

At approximately 18:00, the Artsakh MoD stated that Azerbaijani forces had attacked along the northern and north-eastern directions with tanks, while Armenians had inflicted losses on the Azerbaijani units.[118] Shortly after, the Armenian MoD stated that a Turkish F-16, taking off from Ganja International Airport, had shot down an Armenian Su-25, killing the pilot.[10] This was denied by both Azerbaijani[119] and Turkish[120] authorities. Shortly after, the Armenian MoD released images of the wreckage of an Su-25 which it stated was downed by the Turkish F-16.[121] According to Azerbaijan, two Su-25 fighter jets took off on the territory of Armenia and later crashed into a mountain and exploded.[122] Then, at approximately 19:30, the Armenian MoD released footage apparently showing the destruction of an Azerbaijani unit.[123] At approximately 22:00, the Armenian MoD stated that an Azerbaijani convoy loaded with ammunition had been destroyed.[124] Approximately one hour later, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that Azerbaijani forces had destroyed positions occupied by the Armenian 1st Battalion of the 5th Motorized Infantry Regiment near Həsənqaya in the Tartar District and the 1st Battalion of the 6th Motorized Infantry Regiment in the direction of Talış with artillery strikes.[125]

30 September

According to the Armenian MoD, the clashes continued with lesser intensity overnight.[126] At approximately 01:10, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing the destruction of Armenian military vehicles, including tanks, in the area of Jabrayil District.[127] It was reported that the Iranian Air Defense Force had downed an Azerbaijani drone near Aslan Duz.[128][129] At approximately 08:30, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that Armenian forces had been shelling Tartar City for half an hour.[130] The Armenian MoD stated that Armenian forces had downed an Azerbaijani IAI Harop drone.[131] At approximately 10:20, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that the Azerbaijani units had surrounded Armenian forces with the aid of artillery fire, and that clashes continued in the Aghdara/Martakert–Tartar area of the front.[132] At approximately 10:20, the Ministry stated that Armenian forces had started firing upon Aşağı Ağcakənd, in Goranboy District.[133] At approximately 11:10, the Armenian MoD stated that the Azerbaijani Air Force was attacking Armenian positions in the northern direction of the front.[134] The Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing the Azerbaijan military shelling Armenian positions.[135] At approximately 12:25, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that the Armenian 2nd Battalion of the 7th Mountain Rifle Regiment of the 10th Mountain Rifle Division, stationed in Tonaşen, had incurred heavy losses and retreated.[136] The Ministry then released footage apparently showing the attack.[137] It then stated that Azerbaijani forces had fired upon the command post of the Armenian 41st Special Regiment of the 18th Motorized Division, inflicting casualties.[138] At approximately 13:00, the Ministry released footage apparently showing the destruction of Armenian military equipment, including IFVs and missile launchers, in the morning.[139] It released additional footage apparently showing the destruction of Armenian artillery, which had been shelling Azerbaijani positions.[140] The Armenian MoD stated that Armenian forces had destroyed a large quantity of Azerbaijani materiel, including a TOS-1A.[141] At approximately 15:00, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing Azerbaijani forces destroying two Armenian tanks.[142] The Ministry also stated that Azerbaijai forces had shelled the 4th Armenian Batallion, stationed in the Fuzuli District,[143] and that its forces had attacked the headquarters of the Armenian 5th Mountain Rifle Regiment of the 10th Mountain Rifle Division, stationed in Aghdara.[144] The Armenian MoD stated that Armenian forces had destroyed Azerbaijani outposts and materiel.[145] At approximately 17:30, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing the destruction of Armenian materiel;[146] one hour later, it released footage apparently showing the destruction of further Armenian materiel.[147] Simultaneously, the Armenian MoD released a footage, apparently showing Armenian forces advancing into the Azerbaijani positions.[148] At approximately 22:00, the Azerbaijani MoD released a footage, apparently showing the destruction of Armenian materiel.[149]

Casualties

Civilian casualties

According to the Armenian, on 27 September, a woman and a child were allegedly killed by Azerbaijani shelling in Martuni Province.[150] According to Beglaryan, "In Stepanakert alone, there are more than 10 injured, including children and women."[151] The Azerbaijani MoD denied these claims.[152]

According to Azerbaijani sources, the Armenian military has targeted densely populated areas containing civilian structures.[153] As of 29 September, Azerbaijan had confirmed seven civilian casualties;[154] this number has since risen to over a dozen. The Prosecutor General's Office of the Republic of Azerbaijan stated that during the clashes, as a result of shelling by Armenian artillery, 14 people had been killed, while 46 people had been hospitalized.[23] According to Azerbaijani sources, casualties include five residents of Qaşaltı Qaraqoyunlu, in Naftalan, allegedly killed by Armenian artillery fire;[155] a civilian from Evoğlu;[23] a civilian allegedly killed by shrapnel in the Tartar District Court on Heydar Aliyev Avenue in Tartar;[156] two civilians allegedly killed by artillery fire in a civilian area in the Shikharkh settlement in Tartar District; a civilian killed in Garadaghli in Aghdam,[157] a civilian from Tartar, also alleged to have been killed by Armenian shelling;[158] and a civilian from Horadiz, also allegedly killed by Armenian shelling.[24]

Military casualties

Azerbaijan has claimed that more than 2,300 Armenian servicemen have been killed or wounded, and it has stated that it has destroyed about 130 tanks and other armored vehicles, 55 other military vehicles, six command posts, and command-observation posts, more than 200 artillery pieces, multiple launch rocket systems, including a BM-27 Uragan, grenade launchers, 25 Armenian anti-aircraft units, including an S-300, and 15 9K33 Osas, 18 UAVs, 50 anti-tank weapons, and five ammunition depots.[20] In turn an Azerbaijani helicopter was stated to have been damaged, but its crew had apparently returned it to Azerbaijani-controlled territory without casualties.[15]

Armenia and Artsakh authorities initially claimed the downing of four Azerbaijani helicopters and the destruction of ten tanks and IFVs, as well as 15 drones.[159] Later the numbers were revised to 400 Azerbaijani soldiers killed,[160] 36 tanks and armored personnel vehicles destroyed, two armored combat engineering vehicles destroyed and four helicopters and 27 unmanned aerial vehicles downed all within the first day of hostilities.[161] They released footage showing the destruction or damage of five Azerbaijani tanks[162][163][164] and the names and ranks of at least 82 Azerbaijani servicemen killed so far.[165][166][167]

Artsakh authorities reported the deaths of 103 servicemen, with over 120 injured.[18][19] Also, an Armenian Su-25 was downed.[10]

Analysis

In an interview given on 27 September regional expert Thomas de Waal stated that it was highly unlikely that the hostilities were initiated by the Armenian side. "Basically, Armenians won the war of the 1990s, they have all the territory they want", de Waal said. "Their incentive is to normalize the status quo". "For various reasons, Azerbaijan calculates that military action will win it something", he said.[168]

One commentator in the journal Foreign Policy predicted that Azerbaijan would have great difficulty in trying to occupy the entire area of Nagorno-Karabakh due to the extremely inaccessible mountainous terrain controlled by Armenian troops. In addition, he opined that the readiness of the Azerbaijani army was very poor, with the army being very unhappy, corrupt and inefficient, with as much as a 20 percent desertion rate. Further, despite large investments in the purchase of military equipment from oil profits, the Azerbaijani army was said to lack adequate training for the use of new equipment.[169]

The suspected immediate goal of the Azerbaijani attack is to capture the districts of Fuzuli and Jabrayil in southern Nagorno-Karabakh, where the terrain is less mountainous and more favorable for offensive operations.[170]

Official statements

Armenia

On 27 September, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, accused the Azerbaijani authorities of a large-scale provocation. The Prime Minister stated that the "recent aggressive statements of the Azerbaijani leadership, large-scale joint military exercises with Turkey, as well as the rejection of OSCE proposals for monitoring clearly indicate that this aggression was pre-planned and constitutes a large-scale provocation against peace and security in region."[171]

On 28 September, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia issued a statement, claiming that the "people of Artsakh are at war with the Turkish–Azerbaijani alliance".[172] The Armenian Ambassador to Russia, Vardan Toganyan, did not rule out that Armenia may turn to Russia for fresh arms supplies.[173]

On 29 September, Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that Azerbaijan, with military support from Turkey, was expanding the theater into Armenian territory.[174]

On 30 September, Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that Armenia was considering officially recognising the Republic of Artsakh as an independent territory.[175] On the same day, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Turkish Air Force had carried out provocative flights along the front between the forces of the Republic of Artsakh and Azerbaijan, including providing air support to the Azerbaijani army.[176]

Azerbaijan

Meeting of the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev with the country's Security Council on 27 September.

On 26 September, according to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence, the day before the offensive, the Armenian military had fired in different directions along the front line, violating the ceasefire 48 times. Azerbaijan stated that the Armenian side attacked first, and stated that the Azerbaijani forces then launched a counter-offensive.[177]

On 27 September, the Office of the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, accused Armenian forces of a "willful and deliberate" attack on the front line,[178] and in "deliberately targeting of the residential areas and the civilians", calling it a "gross violation of international humanitarian law."[179] On 28 September, the Office of the President of Azerbaijan stated that Armenia's actions had destroyed the peace negotiations through an act of aggression against Azerbaijan,[180] adding that a war had been launched against Azerbaijan, mobilising the people of Azerbaijan, and declaring a Great Patriotic War.[181] The Office then stated that the deployment of the Armenian military in Nagorno-Karabakh constituted a threat to regional peace and accused Armenia of propagandising, adding that the Azerbaijani military was operating according to international law.[182] The Azerbaijani State Committee for Family, Women and Children Affairs issued a statement accusing the Armenian military of purposefully targeting civilians, including women and children .[183] Furthermore, the Azerbaijani Minister of Foreign Affairs denied any claims of Turkish involvement, while admitting military-technical cooperation with Turkey and other countries.[184]

On 29 September, the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev received the credentials of the newly appointed Ambassador of Pakistan to Azerbaijan, Bilal Hayee, and spoke about the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. The President stated that the Armenian occupation and aggression had led not to the destruction of infrastructure and mosques, caused the Khojaly massacre, and resulted in cultural genocide, resulting in an insult to the Muslim world and were tantamount to an official policy of Islamophobia and hatred of Azerbaijanis.[185] The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) and Prosecutor General's Office issued a joint statement on alleged war crimes against civilians by Armenian.[186] During a briefing jointly held by the Azerbaijani MoFA and Prosecutor General's Office, the Azerbaijani MoFA demanded that Armenia stop shelling civilians and called on international organizations to ensure Armenia followed international law.[187] The Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polad Bülbüloğlu denied reports of mercenaries brought in from Turkey by Azerbaijan,[188] and the First Vice-President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Mehriban Aliyeva, stated that Azerbaijan had never laid claim to others' territory nor had it ever committed crimes against humanity.[189]

Alleged involvement of Turkey and SNA

Two days into the armed conflict, several pro-Turkish Syrian rebels and sources of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights[11] alleged that a private Turkish security company had begun signing up Syrian volunteers to fight in Artsakh.[3] Azerbaijan denied these claims.[190] The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, called Armenia "the biggest threat to peace in the region", and vowed to support Azerbaijan.[191] According to a report in The Times, Turkish involvement in sending 200 Syrian mercenaries to support Azerbaijani forces has been at least partially confirmed.[192]

The SOHR has confirmed the existence of a total of 850 Syrian rebels in Azerbaijan, primarily of Syrian-Turkmen descent from the Sultan Murad Division, and confirmed the deaths of 3 Syrians so far. The SOHR noted Arab-majority Syrian rebel groups refused to send their fighters to Azerbaijan.[193]

Alleged involvement of Armenian mercenaries and YPG

Before the conflict, Turkish sources alleged that many YPG and PKK members from Iraq and Syria were transferred to Nagorno-Karabakh in order to train Armenian militias against Azerbaijan,[48] while on 30 September, Turkish sources alleged that about 300 PKK militants were transferred to Nagorno-Karabakh via Iran.[194] On 28 September, the Azerbaijani MoD alleged that among the Armenian casualties were mercenaries of Armenian origin from Syria and from a variety of Middle East countries.[74] On 30 September, Hikmat Hajiyev stated that that the international community should adequately respond to the use of terrorist forces by Armenia.[195]

Alleged involvement of Russia and Iran

During the conflict, Azerbaijani and Iranian media reported that Russian weaponry and military hardware were transported to Armenia via Iran.[196] On 29 September, the Iranian Foreign Ministry denied these claims.[197] The next day, Azerbaijani government-affiliated media outlets shared video footage reportedly showing military equipment being transported to Armenia via Iran.[198][199][200] Azerbaijani MP Sabir Rustamkhanli stated that Iran was engaged in transporting weapons from various countries to Armenia.[201] Subsequently, in the Azerbaijani Parliament, Rustamkhanli suggested opening an Azerbaijani embassy in Israel.[202] The Chief of Staff of the President of Iran, Mahmoud Vaezi, in a phone call with the Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan, Shahin Mustafayev denied the claims and stated that they were aimed at disrupting both countries' relations.[203] Additionally, Iranian state-affiliated media stated that the trucks depicted in the footage consisted of shipments of Kamaz trucks that the Armenian government had previously purchased from Russia.[204]

Reactions

Domestic reactions

Armenia

On 28 September, Armenia banned all men aged over 18 who were listed in the mobilization reserve from leaving the country.[205]

File:2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict curfew in Baku, Azerbaijan 28 September 2020.jpg
File:Baku, Azerbaijan after the successes on the front, 29 September 2020 (1).png
File:Baku, Azerbaijan after the successes on the front, 29 September 2020 (2).png
File:Baku, Azerbaijan after the successes on the front, 29 September 2020 (3).png
Baku, during the curfew starting on 28 September.

On 29 September, Armenia postponed the trial of the former President Robert Kocharyan and other former officials charged in the 2008 post-election unrest case. The reason given was that one of the defendants, the former Defence Minister of Armenia, Seyran Ohanyan, had gone to Artsakh during the Azerbaijani attack.[206]

Azerbaijan

On 27 September, Azerbaijani authorities restricted access to the Internet across the entire country shortly after the clashes began. According to a statement by the Ministry of Transport, Connections and High-Tech Technologies, this step was taken to prevent Armenian provocations.[207] The State Committee on Work with Diaspora of the Republic of Azerbaijan also appealed to Azerbaijanis living abroad not to employ unofficial, unspecified and biased information on social networks, electronic media and other media.[208] The National Assembly of Azerbaijan declared a curfew in Baku, Ganja, Goygol, Yevlakh and a number of districts from midnight on 28 September.[209][210] The Interior Minister, Vilayet Eyvazov, was appointed commander of the areas under curfew.[211] Azerbaijan Airlines announced that all airports in Azerbaijan would be closed to regular passenger flights until September 30.[212] Then, the Military Prosecutor's Offices of Fizuli, Tartar, Karabakh and Ganja began criminal investigations of war and other crimes on the basis of information and evidence obtained.[213]

On 28 September, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, issued a decree authorising a partial mobilization in the Republic of Azerbaijan.[214]

International reactions

Supranational organisations

President of the European Council Charles Michel called for bilateral cessation of hostilities,[50] as has the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres,[215] followed by the United Nations Security Council condemning the conflict,[30] and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has also called for an end to hostilities.[216]

Secretary General of the Turkic Council Baghdad Amreyev demanded that Armenia withdraw from Azerbaijan.[217]

Secretary General of the Organization of American States Luis Almagro demanded that Azerbaijan cease hostilities.[218]

UN member states

Representatives of several countries, including Albania,[219] Argentina,[220] Canada,[221] China,[222] France,[223] Georgia,[224] Germany,[225] Greece,[226] Iran,[227] Moldova,[228][229] Poland,[230] Romania,[231][232] Russia,[233] Saudi Arabia,[234] Turkey,[51] the United Kingdom,[235] the United States,[236] Uruguay,[237] and Vatican City,[225] have called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The governments of partially recognised Northern Cyprus, Pakistan and Turkey expressed support for Azerbaijan, blaming Armenia for violating the ceasefire.[225][238][239][240] Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Šefik Džaferović and the leader of the Party of Democratic Action, Bakir Izetbegović, voiced support for Azerbaijan, condemning Armenia and comparing the situation with the 1992-1995 Bosnian War.[241]

Cyprus issued a statement condemning Azerbaijan for breaching the ceasefire and any escalating actions by the involved parties or by third parties, calling for a return to peaceful negotiation.[242] French President Emmanuel Macron expressed concerns over Turkey's "rash and dangerous" statements regarding the conflict, further stating that he was "extremely concerned by the warlike messages".[243]

Political Figures

United States presidential candidate Joe Biden demanded that Turkey "stay out of the conflict".[244]

Sali Berisha, former President of Albania, called for the international community to engage the conflict with greater seriosity.[245]

See also

Notes

^ a: Alleged by the SOHR,[246][11] SNA fighters[247] and leaders,[248] journalists[249] and Armenia.[250] Denied by Azerbaijan[251] and other SNA leaders.[248]
^ b: Alleged by Armenia,[252][253] denied by Azerbaijan[254] and Turkey.[255]
^ c: Alleged by Azerbaijan.[74][256]
^ d: Alleged by Turkey.[194]
^ e: Alleged reports,[196][198][199] denied by Iran.[197][203]
^ f: The SOHR reported three fighters were killed,[257] while an unidentified SNA leader & the Jesr Press reported 30 fighters were killed.[258][259]

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  259. ^ Press jesr: Number of killed Syrian mercenaries in Nagorno Karabakh grows to 30
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