2020 United States Senate election in Alaska: Difference between revisions
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The '''2020 United States Senate election in Alaska''' was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the [[United States Senate]] to represent the [[Alaska|State of Alaska]], concurrently with the [[2020 United States presidential election|2020 U.S. presidential election]], as well as [[2020 United States Senate elections|other elections]] to the United States Senate, [[2020 United States House of Representatives elections|elections]] to the [[United States House of Representatives]] and various [[2020 United States elections|state and local elections]]. Incumbent [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] Senator [[Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator)|Dan Sullivan]] is running for re–election to a second term in office, while independent candidate [[Al Gross (politician)|Al Gross]], son of [[Avrum Gross]], is running with the support of the [[Alaska Democratic Party|Democratic Party]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/alaska-senate/alaska-senate-moves-likely-republican|title=Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican|work=The Cook Political Report|date=June 12, 2020|accessdate=August 29, 2020|first=Jessica|last=Taylor}}</ref> |
The '''2020 United States Senate election in Alaska''' was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the [[United States Senate]] to represent the [[Alaska|State of Alaska]], concurrently with the [[2020 United States presidential election|2020 U.S. presidential election]], as well as [[2020 United States Senate elections|other elections]] to the United States Senate, [[2020 United States House of Representatives elections|elections]] to the [[United States House of Representatives]] and various [[2020 United States elections|state and local elections]]. Incumbent [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] Senator [[Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator)|Dan Sullivan]] is running for re–election to a second term in office, while independent candidate [[Al Gross (politician)|Al Gross]], son of [[Avrum Gross]], is running with the support of the [[Alaska Democratic Party|Democratic Party]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/alaska-senate/alaska-senate-moves-likely-republican|title=Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican|work=The Cook Political Report|date=June 12, 2020|accessdate=August 29, 2020|first=Jessica|last=Taylor}}</ref> |
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Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/electioncalendar.php|title=Alaska Division of Elections|website=www.elections.alaska.gov}}</ref> The election was impacted by the revelation of recordings related to the controversial [[Pebble Mine]] project, which could adversely impact the ecosystem of [[Bristol Bay]]. Although Senator Sullivan has publicly opposed the mining project, corporate executives of the Pebble Limited Partnership indicated that he would quietly support the project after the election, if he is re-elected, in secret recordings that were made public.<ref>{{Cite web|date=2020-10-19|title=Senate 2020: In Alaska, a Controversy Over an Embattled Mine Has Tightened the Race|url=https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16102020/alaska-senate-race-election-2020-dan-sullivan-al-gross|access-date=2020-10-22|website=InsideClimate News|language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Cohen|first=Rachel M.|date=2020-10-12|title=Locked in Tight Race, GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan Caught in Environmental Scandal|url=https://theintercept.com/2020/10/12/alaska-republican-senator-dan-sullivan-pebble-mine/|access-date=2020-10-22|website=The Intercept|language=en-US}}</ref> |
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==Republican primary== |
==Republican primary== |
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Revision as of 02:44, 12 November 2020
 | This article documents a current election. Information may change rapidly as the election progresses until official results have been published. Initial news reports may be unreliable, and the last updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. (November 2020) |
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| Elections in Alaska |
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is running for re–election to a second term in office, while independent candidate Al Gross, son of Avrum Gross, is running with the support of the Democratic Party.[2]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Dan Sullivan, incumbent U.S. Senator[3]
Withdrawn
Endorsements
Dan Sullivan
- U.S. federal officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[6]
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Sullivan (inc.) | 65,257 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 65,257 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian-Democratic-Independence primary
Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[8]
Democratic candidates
Nominee
- Al Gross (Independent), orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, and son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross[9]
Eliminated in primary
- Edgar Blatchford (Democratic), Democratic candidate in the 2016 election for the U.S. Senate, founder and former editor and publisher of Alaska Newspapers, Inc., former Mayor of Seward (1999–2003) and former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development[5]
- Chris Cumings (Independent), Democratic candidate in the 2018 election for Alaska's at-large congressional district and ex-bank employee[10][5]
Disqualified from the ballot
Withdrawn
- David Darden (Independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election[5]
Alaskan Independence candidates
Nominee
- John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist[11]
Endorsements
Al Gross
- Local officials
- Pete Buttigieg, 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020)[12]
- Individuals
- Andrew Yang, Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship (2015–17), 2020 Democratic Presidential candidate[13]
- Organizations
- 314 Action[14]
- Alaska Center[15]
- Alaska Democratic Party[16]
- DSCC[17]
- End Citizens United[18]
- Humanity Forward[13]
- J Street PAC[19]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[20]
- Orthopaedic PAC[21]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[22]
- The Lincoln Project[23]
- Union
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent | Al Gross | 50,047 | 79.87% | |
| Democratic | Edgar Blatchford | 5,463 | 8.72% | |
| Independence | John Howe | 4,165 | 6.65% | |
| Independent | Christopher Cumings | 2,989 | 4.77% | |
| Total votes | 62,664 | 100.0% | ||
Other candidates
Green Party
Nominee
- Jed Whittaker, Green nominee in the 1996 United States Senate election in Alaska and salvage company owner (write-in candidate)[25][26]
Independent
Declared
- Sidney "Sid" Hill, Independent write-in candidate for the 2018 election in Alaska's at-large congressional district, Independent write-in candidate for the 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska and LaRouchite (write-in candidate)[25][26][27]
- Karen Nanouk (write-in candidate)[26]
Withdrawn
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Lean R | October 13, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[31] | Lean R | October 7, 2020 |
| Economist[32] | Lean R | October 6, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[33] | Likely R | October 6, 2020 |
| DDHQ[34] | Lean R | October 5, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[35] | Likely R | October 1, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] | Lean R | October 1, 2020 |
| RCP[37] | Likely R | September 27, 2020 |
| Niskanen[38] | Tossup | September 15, 2020 |
| Politico[39] | Lean R | September 9, 2020 |
Endorsements
Dan Sullivan (R)
- U.S. Federal Officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[6]
- Organizations
- Labor Unions
Al Gross (I)
- U.S. Senators
- Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California (2017–present), Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President in the 2020 election[44]
- Chuck Schumer, U.S. Senator from New York (1999–present), Senate Minority Leader (2017–present), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New York's 9th congressional district (1993–1999), New York's 10th congressional district (1983–1993), New York's 16th congressional district (1981–1983)[45]
- State Executives
- Tony Knowles, Governor of Alaska (1994–2002), Mayor of Anchorage (1981–1987)[46]
- Local Officials
- Pete Buttigieg, 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020)[12]
- Individuals
- Jimmy Dore, radio host
- Kyle Kulinski, radio host
- Andrew Yang, Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship (2015–17), 2020 Democratic Presidential candidate[13]
- Organizations
- 314 Action[14]
- Alaska Center[15]
- Alaska Democratic Party[16]
- Demand Universal Healthcare[47]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[48]
- DSCC[17]
- End Citizens United[18]
- J Street PAC[19]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[20]
- Humanity Forward[13]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[49]
- Orthopaedic PAC[21]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[22]
- The Lincoln Project[23]
- Unions
Polls
- Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
- Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Al Gross (I) |
John Howe (AI) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | October 26–28, 2020 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | – | – | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | October 19–20, 2020 | 800 (V) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 5% | – | 10% |
| Change Research (I)[B] | October 16–19, 2020 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 44% | 3% | – | 5% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 9–14, 2020 | 423 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 45% | 37% | 10% | 2%[d] | 7%[e] |
| Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[B] | October 10–13, 2020 | 606 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 47% | – | – | – |
| Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[B] | October 2–6, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | – | – | – |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | September 30 – October 4, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 47% | – | 2%[f] | 5% |
| Alaska Survey Research | September 26 – October 4, 2020 | 696 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | – | – | 8% |
| Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[C] | September 20–23, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 45% | – | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[1] | August 27–28, 2020 | 638 (V) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 43% | – | – | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[D] | July 7–8, 2020 | 1,081 (V) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 34% | – | – | 27% |
| Alaska Survey Research | June 23 – July 7, 2020 | 663 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 40% | – | – | 7% |
Hypothetical polling
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent | Al Gross[a] | ||||
| Independence | John Howe | ||||
| Republican | Dan Sullivan (inc.) | ||||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 100.0% | ||||
Notes
- ^ a b Gross is running as an independent with the nomination of the Democratic Party.
- ^ Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
- ^ Includes "Refused"
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Gross' campaign.
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC, which has supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period.
- ^ Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.
References
- ^ "Alaska Election Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved November 6, 2020.
- ^ Taylor, Jessica (June 12, 2020). "Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
- ^ "SULLIVAN, DAN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
- ^ McCue, Dan (May 1, 2020). "Center for Politics Adds Alaska to Senate Battleground Map". TheWell News. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ^ a b c d e "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. June 5, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
- ^ a b "President Trump endorses Sullivan re-election as US senator for Alaska". KTUU. December 18, 2019. Retrieved December 30, 2019.
- ^ a b "Alaska Secretary of State's office: Election Summary Report - Official Results" (PDF).
- ^ Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018). "Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker". Anchorage Daily News.
- ^ "Gross announces candidacy for Alaska US Senate seat". Associated Press. June 2, 2019.
- ^ "Alaska - Senate". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
- ^ "John Wayne Howe, Alaskan Independence Party, runs for U.S. Senate". KTVF News. July 6, 2020.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ a b "AK-Sen: Pete Buttigieg Jumps In To Help Dr. Al Gross (I) Take Away Moscow Mitch's Majority". Daily Kos.
- ^ a b c d "Humanity Forward Candidate Endorsements". Humanity Forward.
- ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates — 314actionfund". 314 Action. Retrieved November 27, 2019.
- ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates- 2019 Anchorage Municipal Elections".
- ^ a b Quinn, Steve (October 11, 2019). "Alaska Democratic Party backs Gross for US Senate". KTVA. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
- ^ a b "DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race". DSCC. December 3, 2019.
- ^ a b Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
- ^ a b J Street Endorsements https://donate.jstreetpac.org/candidate/al-gross-ak-sen/. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
{{cite web}}: Missing or empty|title=(help) - ^ a b "2020 Endorsements".
- ^ a b "AAOS Now October 2019: OrthoPAC Endorses AAOS Member Al Gross, MD, for U.S. Senate". www.aaos.org.
- ^ a b "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
- ^ a b "Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project". Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project.
- ^ a b "Communications Workers of America Endorses Al Gross (AK) for US Senate". Communications Workers of America. June 11, 2020.
- ^ a b "ALASKA". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
- ^ a b c "November 3, 2020 General Election Candidate List". www.elections.alaska.gov. October 29, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
- ^ Maguire, Sean (August 14, 2020). "Meet Alaska's candidates for the U.S. Senate ahead of the Aug. 18 primaries". KTUU. Retrieved August 21, 2020.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (May 11, 2019). "Sen. Sullivan has his first challenger: a Bernie supporter". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ^ "IDENTIFICATION NUMBER: C00705293" (PDF). FEC. May 29, 2019. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
- ^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
- ^ "Why the Democrats are our narrow favourites to win the Senate". The Economist. September 23, 2020. Retrieved September 24, 2020.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "PAEC Issues First Endorsements in 2020 General Election". Calista Corporation.
- ^ "BSNC Endorses Dan Sullivan for United States Senate".
- ^ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Dan Sullivan for U.S. Senate Representing Alaska". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. July 20, 2020.
- ^ "PRESS RELEASE: International Union of Operating Engineers Endorses Senator Dan Sullivan for Re-election - Dan Sullivan for Alaska". dansullivanforalaska.com.
- ^ Buxton, Matt (August 12, 2020). "Before joining Democratic ticket, Kamala Harris endorsed Al Gross for U.S. Senate". The Midnight Sun.
- ^ https://dralgrosssenate.com
- ^ Knowles, Tony (October 19, 2020). "Dr. Al Gross: Independent for U.S. Senator". Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman.
- ^ https://duh4all.org/us-house-senate-candidates/us-congress-house-senate.html
- ^ "Our Endorsements". DMFI PAC.
- ^ "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate". nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.
- ^ "PACE Recommendations". NEA-Alaska.
Further reading
- Amber Phillips (October 9, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", Washingtonpost.com
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Alaska", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Alaska: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Alaska". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Alaska at Ballotpedia
- Official campaign websites