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2024 European Parliament election

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2024 European Parliament election
← 2019 6–9 June 2024 2029 →
All 720 seats to the European Parliament
361 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Ursula_von_der_Leyen_2024.jpg
Nicolas Schmit - 2023 (cropped).jpg
2023-09-28-Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann-Deutscher Fernsehpreis 2023 -0309.jpg
Leader Ursula von der Leyen Nicolas Schmit Marie-Agnes
Strack-Zimmermann[a]
Alliance EPP Group S&D Renew
Leader's seat Not running Not running Germany
Last election 187 seats, 21.0% 148 seats, 18.5% 97 seats, 13.0%
 
Conclusion of the European Council meeting - 51987066887.jpg
Nicola Procaccini, June 2023.jpg
Anders_Vistisen_portrait_2023_(3).jpg
BDK Karlsruhe Nov 2023 Terry Reintke 2 cropped.jpg
Speech of the Lead Candidates (47941849351).jpg
Leader Ryszard Legutko
Nicola Procaccini 		Anders Vistisen[b] Terry Reintke
Bas Eickhout
Alliance ECR ID Greens/EFA
Leader's seat Not running
Central Italy 		Denmark Germany
Netherlands
Last election 62 seats, 8.2% 76 seats, 10.8% 67 seats, 11.7%
 
Augsburger Parteitag - Walter Baier 2.jpg
Leader Walter Baier
Alliance The Left
Leader's seat Not running
Last election 40 seats, 6.5%
Results by member state, shaded by EP group popular vote winner
Incumbent European Commission

Von der Leyen Commission (EPP)
EPP Group–S&D–Renew



The 2024 European Parliament election took place from 6 to 9 June.[1] It was the tenth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979, and the first European Parliament election after Brexit.[2][3] This election also coincided with a number of other elections in some European Union member states.

Background

In the previous election, held on 23–26 May 2019, in terms of the political Groups in the Parliament, they resulted in the EPP Group and S&D suffering significant losses, while the liberal/centrist (Renew), the Greens/EFA and ID made substantial gains, with ECR and The Left had small reduction. The European People's Party, led by Manfred Weber, won the most seats in the European Parliament, but was then unable to secure support from other parties for Weber as candidate for President of the Commission. After initial deadlock, the European Council decided to nominate Ursula von der Leyen as a compromise candidate to be the new Commission President, and the European Parliament elected von der Leyen with 383 votes (374 votes needed). The commission as a whole was then approved by the European Parliament on 27 November 2019, receiving 461 votes.

The 2019 election saw an increase in the turnout, when 50.7% of eligible voters had cast a vote compared with 42.5% of the 2014 election. This was the first time that turnout had increased since the first European Parliament election in 1979.[4]

In 2024, the Eurobarometer data shows that 71% of Europeans say they are likely to vote in June, 10% higher than those who said they would in 2019.[5]

Since the last European-wide election, the right has continued to rise across Europe, remaining however split, mainly by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Russian relations issue.[6] In 2024, right-wing populist parties hold or share political power in Hungary (Fidesz), Italy (Brothers of Italy), Sweden (Sweden Democrats), Finland (Finns Party), Slovakia (Slovak National Party), Croatia (Homeland Movement) and the Netherlands (Party for Freedom).[6] The centre-right EPP has "raised eyebrows" among some commentators for its efforts to charm parties in the ECR to create a broad conservative block,[7] which could upset the long-standing status-quo that has seen the EPP share power with the centre-left S&D and the centrist Renew Group.[8]

Electoral system

Elections to the European Parliament are regulated by the Treaty on European Union, Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and the Act concerning the election of the members of the European Parliament by direct universal suffrage (the Electoral Act). The Electoral Act states that the electoral procedure is governed by the national provisions in each member state, subject to the provisions of the act.[9] Elections are conducted by direct universal suffrage by proportional representation using either a list system or single transferable vote.[10] The national electoral threshold may not exceed 5% of votes cast.[11]

Attempts at electoral reform

In June 2018, the Council agreed to change the EU electoral law and to reform old laws from the 1976 Electoral Act as amended in 2002.[12] New provisions included a mandatory 2% threshold for countries with more than 35 seats and rules to prevent voters from voting in multiple countries.[13] After the Act was adopted by the Council following consent given by the European Parliament in July 2018, not all member states ratified the Act prior to the 2019 elections, which took place under the old rules. As of 2023, the reform has yet to be ratified by Cyprus and Spain;[14] Germany only ratified in summer 2023.[15]

On 3 May 2022, the European Parliament voted to propose a new electoral law, which would contain provisions for electing 28 seats on transnational lists.[16] As of 2024, this reform has not been approved by the Council, which must approve it unanimously,[17] meaning the election will be conducted under the 1976 Electoral Act as amended in 2002.

Apportionment

As a result of Brexit, 27 seats from the British delegation were distributed to other countries in January 2020 (those elected in 2019, but not yet seated took their seats).[18] The other 46 seats were abolished with the total number of MEPs decreasing from 751 to 705.[19]

A report in the European Parliament proposed in February 2023 to modify the apportionment in the European Parliament and increase the number of MEPs from 705 to 716 in order to adapt to the development of the population and preserve degressive proportionality.[20][21] It was passed in the plenary in June 2023.[21] On 26 July 2023, the Council reached a preliminary agreement, which would increase the size of the European Parliament to 720 seats.[22] On 13 September 2023, the European Parliament consented to this decision,[23] which was adopted by the European Council on 22 September 2023.[24]

Electoral system by country

Member state Seats Date Voting
age 		Compulsory voting Absentee voting Min. age for candidacy[25] Constituencies Legal threshold[c] Maximum threshold[d] Electoral system[26] Candidate selection[26]
Austria Austria 20(+1) 9 June[27] 16 No By post 18 01 4% ~4.8% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Belgium Belgium 22(+1) 9 June[28] 16[29] Yes[30] By post and by proxy 18 03 5% Up to 50%[e] D'Hondt Semi-open list
Bulgaria Bulgaria 17 9 June[31] 18 Yes[f] — 21 01 ~5.9%[g][32] Largest remainder[h] Semi-open list
Croatia Croatia 12 9 June[33] 18 No — 18 01 5% ~7.7% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Cyprus Cyprus 06 9 June[34] 18 No[35] — 21 01 1.8%[36] ~14.3% Largest remainder[h] Open list
Czech Republic Czech Republic 21 7–8 June[37] 18 No — 21 01 5% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Denmark Denmark 15(+1) 9 June[38] 18 No By post 18 01 — ~6.3% D'Hondt[i] Open list
Estonia Estonia 07 3–9 June[j][39] 18 No By post and online 21 01 — 12.5% D'Hondt Open list
Finland Finland 15(+1) 9 June[40] 18 No By post 18 01 — ~6.3% D'Hondt Open list
France France 81(+2) 9 June[41] 18 No By proxy 18 01 5% D'Hondt Closed list
Germany Germany 96 9 June[42] 16 No By post 18 1[k] — ~1.0% Sainte-Laguë Closed list
Greece Greece 21 9 June[43] 17 Yes[f] By post 25 01 3% ~4.5% Largest remainder Open list
Hungary Hungary 21 9 June[44] 18 No By post 18 01 5% D'Hondt Closed list
Republic of Ireland Ireland 14(+1) 7 June[45] 18 No — 21 03 N/A Up to 20%[l] Single transferable vote
Italy Italy 76 8–9 June[46] 18 No — 25 05[m] 4% Largest remainder[h] Open list
Latvia Latvia 09(+1) 8 June[47] 18 No By post 21 01 5%[48] 10% Sainte-Laguë Open list
Lithuania Lithuania 11 9 June[49] 18 No By post 21 01 5%[50] ~8.3% Largest remainder[h] Open list
Luxembourg Luxembourg 06 9 June[51] 18 Yes By post 18 01 — ~14.3% D'Hondt Panachage
Malta Malta 06 8 June[52] 16 No — 18 01 N/A ~14.3%[n] Single transferable vote
Netherlands Netherlands 31(+2) 6 June[53] 18 No By post and by proxy 18 01 ~3.2%[g][54] D'Hondt Semi-open list
Poland Poland 53(+1) 9 June[55] 18 No By post and by proxy 21 13[m] 5% Largest remainder[56] Open list
Portugal Portugal 21 9 June[57] 18 No — 18 01 — ~4.5% D'Hondt Closed list
Romania Romania 33 9 June[58] 18 No — 23 01 5% D'Hondt Closed list
Slovakia Slovakia 15(+1) 8 June[59] 18 No — 21 01 5% ~6.3% Largest remainder[o] Semi-open list
Slovenia Slovenia 09(+1) 9 June[60][61] 18 No By post 18 01 — 10% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Spain Spain 61(+2) 9 June 18 No By post 18 01 — ~1.6% D'Hondt Closed list
Sweden Sweden 21 9 June[62] 18 No By post 18 01 4% ~4.5% Modified Sainte-Laguë Semi-open list

Lead candidates

Spitzenkandidat system

In the run-up to the 2014 European Parliament elections a new informal system was unveiled for the selection of the European Commission President (known colloquially as the Spitzenkandidat system) dictating that whichever party group gained the most seats (or the one able to secure the support of a majority coalition) would see their candidate become President of the Commission.[63] In 2014, the candidate of the largest group, Jean-Claude Juncker, was eventually nominated and elected as Commission President.[64] European party leaders aimed to reintroduce the system in 2019, with them selecting lead candidates and organizing a televised debate between those candidates.[65] In the aftermath of the election German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen was chosen as Commission President, even though she had not been a candidate prior to the election, while Manfred Weber, lead candidate for the EPP, which had gained the most seats, was not nominated as he was unable to secure support from any other party.[66] Following this appointment of a Commission President who had not been a Spitzenkandidat, some called for the system to be abandonded, while others called for it to be revived in the 2024 elections.[67][68][69]

In 2023, multiple political parties at the European level announced their intentions to nominate a main candidate.[70][71][72][73] ECR[74][75] and ID have rejected doing so.[76]

Overview of party candidates for Commission President in 2024

European political party EP Group Lead candidate(s) Election program
EPP European People's Party EPP Group Ursula von der Leyen "Our Europe"
PES Party of European Socialists S&D Nicolas Schmit "The Europe We Want"
ALDE Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party Renew Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann “Your Europe, Your Freedom"
EDP European Democratic Party Sandro Gozi "Reinventing Europe"
EGP European Green Party Greens/EFA Bas Eickhout, Terry Reintke "Courage to Change"
EFA European Free Alliance Greens/EFA, ECR Maylis Roßberg [de], Raül Romeva "A Europe for All"
ID Identity and Democracy Party ID None[b] None
ECR European Conservatives and Reformists Party ECR None "Party Manifesto"
PEL Party of the European Left The Left Walter Baier "Our Moment"
ECPM European Christian Political Movement EPP Group, ECR Valeriu Ghilețchi "elevate. empower. engage."
European political party not recognised by the EU EP Group Lead candidate(s) Election program
PPEU European Pirate Party Greens/EFA Marcel Kolaja, Anja Hirschel "Common European Election Program"
Volt Volt Europa Damian Boeselager, Sophie in 't Veld "Electoral Moonshot Programme"
DiEM25 Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 None None "What we are fighting for"

European People's Party

The centre-right EPP held its congress in Bucharest on 6–7 March 2024 to elect its presidential candidate and adopt its election programme.[79] Nominees required the backing of their own member party and not more than two other EPP member parties from EU countries, with nominations closing on February 21.[80]

On 19 February 2024, Ursula von der Leyen announced her intention to run, supported by the CDU.[81] On 7 March von der Leyen was elected presidential candidate with 400 votes in favour, 89 against and 10 blank, out of the 737 EPP delegates at the EPP congress.[82] Among others, it is believed that the French and Slovenian delegations voted against.[83][84]

Party of European Socialists

The centre-left PES held its congress in Rome on 2 March. Nominees required the backing of nine PES full member parties or organisations, with nominations closing on 17 January.[85]

On 18 January, the PES announced that the Luxembourgish European Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights Nicolas Schmit was the sole nominee to meet the nominating requirements.[86] He was then nominated on 2 March during the party congress, along with the adoption of the election programme.[87]

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party

The ALDE party held its extraordinary congress in Brussels on 20–21 March 2024.[88] On 7 March 2024, following months of speculation, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas announced that she had rejected the offer from ALDE to be the party's Spitzenkandidat.[89] Luxembourg’s former Prime Minister Xavier Bettel announced that he is not interested in the post either.[90]

On 11 March, the German FDP nominated Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann to become presidential candidate.[91] She was then elected on March 20 during the party congress, along with the adoption of the election programme.[92][93]

European Democratic Party

During the 8 March 2024 Convention in Florence, the European Democratic Party nominated Sandro Gozi as its lead candidate and approved its election programme.[94]

European Green Party

During the 2–4 February 2024 congress in Lyon, the European Green Party elected Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout as its two presidential candidates and adopted its election programme.[95][96][97] Nominees were Bas Eickhout, Elīna Pinto, Terry Reintke, Benedetta Scuderi.[98][99]

European Free Alliance

In October 2023, the congress of the European Free Alliance elected Maylis Roßberg and Raül Romeva as its presidential candidates, and adopted its election programme.[100][101]

Party of the European Left

During the 24–25 February 2024 congress in Ljubljana,[102] the PEL elected Walter Baier as its presidential candidate and adopted its election programme.[103]

European Christian Political Movement

In a meeting held on 24 February 2024, the European Christian Political Movement appointed party president Valeriu Ghilețchi as its lead candidate for the European Commission.[104]

European Pirate Party

At its General Assembly in Luxembourg in January 2024, the European Pirate Party nominated Marcel Kolaja and Anja Hirschel as lead candidates.[105]

Volt Europa

On 27 November 2023, Volt Europa adopted its European election programme at its General Assembly in Paris.[106] During the 6–7 April 2024 campaign launch event in Brussels the party elected German MEP Damian Boeselager and Dutch MEP Sophie in 't Veld as its lead candidates.[107] Regarding which European Parliament group to join after the elections, Boeselager said he was “open to discussions” between remaining in Greens/EFA or joining Renew Europe in due course.[108] To emphasise its demand for transnational lists, Volt Europa also presented a symbolic transnational list for the election alongside its leading candidates.[109]

Campaign

Issues

Economy

Main article: Economy of the European Union

Climate change

Main article: Climate change in Europe
See also: European Green Deal

Foreign policy

Main article: Common Foreign and Security Policy

Immigration

Immigration was cited by Politico as a key issue in elections in several countries, including Austria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland and Sweden.[110]

Potential enlargement

Main article: Potential enlargement of the European Union

The future of Ursula von der Leyen

Ursula von der Leyen, the current European Commission President, did not formally announce her intention to stand for a second term until February 2024. This led to speculation about other potential EPP candidates, such as President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola. However, on 19 February 2024, von der Leyen announced her intention to seek a second term.[81] and on 7 March she was elected European People's Party presidential candidate with 400 votes in favour, 89 against and 10 blank, out of the 737 EPP congressional delegates.[82]

In Germany, the coalition government had also agreed to support the spitzenkandidat system,[111] implicitly accepting the prospect of von der Leyen, who within Germany hails from the opposition CDU party, becoming Commission President again, depending on the election results. Otherwise, the German government coalition agreement grants the right to nominate the next German EU Commissioner to the Greens, provided the Commission President is not from Germany.[112]

The future of Charles Michel

In January 2024, Charles Michel announced he would step down early as president of the European Council to run for the European Parliament instead.[113] This would have meant that European Union leaders would potentially discuss his successor in the summer[114] as, if elected to the European Parliament, he would have had to step down because of prohibition of the dual mandate.[115] His mandate had been to set to expire in November 2024.[116] For this unanticipated decision Michel was criticised by EU officials and diplomats.[117] He was criticised by his political ally Sophie in 't Veld who questioned his "credibility".[118] This timing was further criticised for potential disruptions it could cause, as Article 2(4) of the European Council's Rules of Procedure provide that, if its President leaves office early, he "shall be replaced, where necessary until the election of his or her successor, by the member of the European Council representing the Member State holding the six-monthly Presidency of the Council".[119] This would have been the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose country would be scheduled to take over the rotating presidency of the European Council on 1 July.[120] On 26 January 2024, Michel withdrew his candidacy and thus delayed his departure.[121]

Future of Identity and Democracy

Ahead of the 2024 European Parliament election, National Rally spokespeople Jordan Bardella and Caroline Parmentier announced they would part ways with Alternative for Germany after the election and not include the AfD in the ID group due to controversial statements on Nazi Germany made by AfD lead candidate Maximilian Krah in an interview and allegations of Chinese espionage influence on the party.[122][123] Italy's Lega and the Czech SPD backed the position taken by the National Rally,[124][125] but Vlaams Belang declined to support expulsion of the AfD from the ID group or rule out further cooperation with the AfD, while criticising Krah's remarks.[126] The Danish People's Party conditioned future cooperation with the AfD on Krah's exclusion from the ID group.[127] The AfD was expelled from the group on 23 May.[128]

European Parliament groups

After the European elections, there are often changes or creation of new political groups by the national parties in the European Parliament.[129] This concerns both the new parties that have not yet announced which group they will be part of, and the parties already present in the European Parliament who choose to change group at the beginning of a new legislature.[129] According to the Parliament’s rules of procedure, a political group requires at least 23 MEPs from at least one-quarter of the Member States (7 out of 27), and a political declaration, setting out the purpose of the group.[130]

Several news outlets have speculated on the possibility of a new group guided by the German Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht party, created in January 2024.[131][132][133] This 'left-conservative' and eurosceptic group could also include La France Insoumise, the Five Star Movement, ANO 2011, Course of Freedom, Direction – Social Democracy, Voice – Social Democracy, the Lithuanian Regions Party, For Stability!, and Together for Catalonia.[129][132]

After the expulsion of the AfD from ID, it is uncertain where its MEPs will be part of a group after the election. On 30 May, RTL Hungary reported that MHM and AfD were considering forming a new group.[134] This 'far-right' and eurosceptic group could include also Niki and Republic Movement.[129] After Revival was expelled from IDP, the party organized the 'Sofia Declaration' with the Republic Movement, Forum for Democracy, Our Homeland Movement, Alternative for Sweden and the Agricultural Livestock Party of Greece on 12 April 2024.[135] Czech Republic in First Place! stated they would either join ID or a "pacifist" and eurosceptic group with parties like the Republic Movement.[136]

Debates

2024 European Parliament election debates
Date and time Location Organisers Moderators Language Participants
 P  Present  A  Absent  I  Invited  NI  Not invited
EPP PES ALDE EDP EGP EFA ID ECR PEL ECPM
29 April 2024
19:00 CET[137][138] 		Theater aan het Vrijthof, Maastricht, Netherlands Studio Europa Maastricht,
Politico Europe 		Barbara Moens, Marcia Luyten English P
von der Leyen 		P
Schmit 		P
Strack-Zimmermann[p] 		P
Eickhout 		P
Roßberg 		P
Vistisen[b] 		A P
Baier 		P
Ghilețchi
21 May 2024
16:00 CET[139] 		Brussels, Belgium Bruegel,
Financial Times 		Maria Demertzis, Henry Foy English P
von der Leyen 		P
Schmit 		P
Gozi[q] 		NI NI P
Vistisen[b] 		NI NI NI
23 May 2024
17:00 CET[140][141] 		Espace Léopold, Brussels, Belgium European Broadcasting Union,
European Parliament 		Annelies Beck, Martin Řezníček English P
von der Leyen 		P
Schmit 		P
Gozi[q] 		P
Reintke 		NI NI NI P
Baier 		NI

29 April (Maastricht, Netherlands)

The first debate was held on Monday, 29 April 2024 from 19:00 to 20:30 CET at the Theater aan het Vrijthof in Maastricht, Netherlands.[138] It was hosted by Studio Europa Maastricht and Politico Europe and was EBU’s Eurovision News Exchange distributed the feed to its public service media network of members.[138] An initiative of Maastricht University, it was the third edition of the so-called "Maastrich Debate" [138][142] All ten registered European Political parties were invited to the debate.[138]

The debate questions focused on three main themes: climate change, foreign and security policy, and EU democracy.[138] During the debate, Ursula von der Leyen indicated she would be open to a deal with the European Conservatives and Reformists group after the election saying that the collaboration “depends very much on how the composition of the Parliament is, and who is in what group”.[143]

21 May (Brussels, Belgium)

The second debate was held on Tuesday, 21 May 2024 from 17:00 to 18:15 in Brussels, Belgium.[139] It was hosted by the think tank Bruegel and the Financial Times. The debate questions focused on economic policy in the EU.[144][145]

23 May (Brussels, Belgium)

Eurovision Debate 2024 with Lead Candidates

The third debate was held on Thursday, 23 May 2024 from 15:00 to 17:00 CET at the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.[146][147] It was hosted by the European Broadcasting Union together with the European Parliament and it was broadcast on public service media channels and online platforms members.[146] The debate take place in English, with interpretation into all 24 official EU languages and International Sign Language. It was the third edition of the so-called "Eurovision Debate".

Invitations to the debate were sent by the EBU to the ten recognised European Political parties, with only one lead candidate allowed to be nominated from each of the seven Political groups of the European Parliament.[146] On 7 May, EBU announced the candidates for the debate. Two parties, the ECR and ID, were considered by EBU not eligible to take part in the debate, since they have not nominated lead candidates for the Presidency of the European Commission and.[148][149]

The debate questions focused on six main topics: Economy and Jobs, Defence and Security, Climate and Environment, Democracy and Leadership, Migration and Borders, Innovation and Technology.[150]

Voting advice applications

Several voting advice applications at the European level have been developed to help voters choose their candidates. Some of this applications could collect user data for research or commercial purpose.

  • EUROMAT allows users to compare their positions on 20 statements with the answers given by the European political parties.[151] The result is presented as a percentage of agreement with each party. The EUROMAT was created as a joint project of the NGOs Pulse of Europe and Polis 180 and the blog Der (europäische) Föderalist and is available in eight languages.[152][153]
  • Votematch.eu is a comprehensive collection of VAAs, with a unique application tailored for each member state.[154] Due to the variation in political parties across countries, Votematch.eu provides a specific application for each nation. This application first matches users with political parties within their own country. After this initial matching, users can compare their results with those in other member states. The overall platform was developed by German bpb and Dutch ProDemos.
  • VoteTracker.eu website allows users to visualise the votes of MEPs of the 2019–2024 legislature on 18 selected votes, and to find the MEPs who best match their convictions.[155]
  • EuroMPmatch is a collaborative project between EUmatrix and the European University Institute aimed at enhancing citizen engagement in EU policy-making. By analyzing MEPs' actual voting records on 20 key topics, the project offers citizens a quiz to determine alignment with MEPs, parties, and political groups.[156][157]
  • EU&I, developed by the European University Institute in Florence, offers 30 questions to which the user can answer from ‘completely agree’ to ‘completely disagree’.[158] They can then give more weight to certain questions. The result is presented as a percentage of agreement with each national party. The site has been translated into 20 languages.[159]
  • Adeno is an application that allows users to discover the European group that best matches their convictions through 100 questions (20 in the express mode) covering 10 themes. The application also offers a multiplayer mode. It is available on Android[160] and iPhone.[161]
  • Palumba is an application, developed by an association of young professionals, offers 27 questions to be answered ‘for’, ‘against’ or ‘neutral’.[162] Explanations are provided for each question. The application provides the result in the form of a percentage of agreement for each European group and displays the closest national parties. The application is available on Android and iPhone and is available in over 30 languages (including regional dialects)[163]

Opinion polling and seat projections

Main article: Opinion polling and seat projections for the 2024 European Parliament election

Polling aggregations

Seat projections

Europe Elects, Der Föderalist and Politico Europe have been presenting seat projections throughout the legislative period. Other institutes started presenting data during the election campaign. All projections make their national-level data transparent, except Politico Europe, which only presents aggregate EU-level data.

Polling aggregator Date updated Number of seats The Left S&D G/EFA Renew EPP ECR ID NI Others
2024 election After reorganisation of groups 16 July 2024 720 46 136 53 77 188 78 84 (as PfE) 33+25 ESN –
Dynamic[r][s][164] 9 June 2024 720 40 136 54 80 188 82 64 76 –
Baseline[t][165] 9 June 2024 720 39 136 54 78 177 73 58 48 67
PolitPro[166] 9 June 2024 720 40 139 40 81 174 74 89 43 40
Politico Europe[167] 6 June 2024 720 32 143 41 75 173 76 67 58 55
election.de[168] 6 June 2024 720 42 138 58 85 181 82 69 65 –
Cassandra-odds.com[169] 5 June 2024 720 38 145 57 89 167 84 73 67 –
euobserver[170] 5 June 2024 720 43 140 52 79 178 89 63 76 –
Europe Elects[171] 4 June 2024 720 38 136 55 81 182 79 69 76 4
Der Föderalist[172] Baseline[t] 3 Jun 2024 720 37 136 57 81 172 79 66 50 42
Dynamic[r] 720 40 137 58 85 186 80 78 56 –
Euronews[173] 23 May 2024 720 43 135 54 82 181 80 83 62 –
2019 election After Brexit 1 Feb 2020 705 40 148 67 97 187 62 76 28 –
Before Brexit 26 May 2019 751 41 154 74 108 182 62 73 57 –

Europe Elects has been presenting popular vote projections throughout the legislative period. Other institutes started presenting data during the election campaign.

Polling aggregator Date updated The Left S&D G/EFA Renew EPP ECR ID NI Others
2024 election 9 June 2024 6.7 % 19.2 % 8.8 % 10.4 % 21.2 % 12.3 % 9.0 % 9.0 % 3.4 %
PolitPro[174] 9 June 2024 5.6% 19.3% 5.6% 11.3% 24.2% 10.3% 12.4% 6.0% 5.3%
The Economist[175] 9 June 2024 6.0% 16.0% 6.0% 10.0% 22.0% 10.0% 9.0% 7.0% 14.0%
Europe Elects[171] 31 May 2024 6.4% 19.8% 7.7% 11.2% 21.1% 12.2% 8.5% 8.9% 4.2%
2019 election
Before Brexit 26 May 2019 6.5% 18.5% 11.7% 13.0% 21.0% 8.2% 10.8% 7.2% 3.1%

Voter turnout

About 357 million people were eligible to vote in 27 countries.[176][177]

Results

Groups

PartySeats+/–
European People's Party186–1
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats135–13
Renew Europe79–18
European Conservatives and Reformists73+11
Identity and Democracy58–18
Greens–European Free Alliance53–14
The Left in the European Parliament – GUE/NGL36–4
Non-Inscrits45–12
Others55+55
Total720-31
Source: Elections official website (as of 10 June, 16:20 GMT+2)[178]

By Country

Response

Before all results were declared, President of France Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the French National Assembly, calling a snap election on 30 June.[179]

Controversies

Conflict with Portuguese national holiday

See also: 2024 European Parliament election in Portugal § Date

The dates chosen for the elections conflict with a long weekend in Portugal, where Portugal Day, a national holiday, is celebrated on 10 June, which is expected to suppress turnout.[180] Despite an attempt by Portuguese leaders to find a compromise, no change was made to the default date of 6–9 June,[181] which required unanimity to be changed.

Qatargate

Main article: Qatar corruption scandal at the European Parliament

The ongoing Qatargate corruption scandal, which began in December 2022, has destabilized the European Parliament following the arrest of several MEPs including Marc Tarabella; Andrea Cozzolino and Eva Kaili who was stripped of her vice presidency. Other suspects in the case include Francesco Giorgi, the parliamentary assistant of MEP Andrea Cozzolino, Pier Antonio Panzeri, founder of the Fight Impunity NGO; Niccolo Figa-Talamanca, head of the No Peace Without Justice NGO; and Luca Visentini, head of the International Trade Union Confederation.[182][183]

Following the scandal, the European Parliament revised its rules of procedure and its code of conduct in September 2023[184] placing six main obligations on MEPs:[185]

  • Detailed declaration of private interests, including those from the 3 years prior to their election
  • When external income exceeds €5,000, all the entities from which their income is received must be listed
  • All conflicts of interest must be resolved or declared
  • Not engaging in paid lobbying activities linked directly to the EU’s decision-making process
  • Meetings with interested parties can only be with people who sign up to the EU's Transparency Register[186] and MEPs must make a disclosure of such meetings and also of meetings held with representatives of third country diplomats
  • Make a declaration of all assets and liabilities at the beginning, and again at the end, of every term of office

Hungary

See also: History of Hungary § Orbán governments: 2010–

The European Parliament views Hungary as a "hybrid regime of electoral autocracy" since 2022 and considers Hungary according to Article 7.1 of the Treaty on European Union in clear risk of a serious breach of the Treaty on European Union.[187][188] In January 2024, a majority of European Parliament MEPs voted for a resolution demanding that the EU Council considers that Hungary be stripped of its EU voting rights under Article 7 of the Treaty.[189]

Russian influence scandal

Main article: Russian interference in European politics

On 27 March, the Czech Republic sanctioned the news site Voice of Europe, claiming that the site is part of a network for pro-Russian influence.[190] The following day, Belgian Prime Minister De Croo, referring to the sanctions during a debate in the Belgian parliament, said that Russia had targeted MEPs, but also paid them.[191] On 2 April, the Czech news portal Denik N reported, citing several ministers, that there are audio recordings of the German far-right politician Petr Bystron (MP, AfD) that incriminate him of having accepted money.[192] On 12 April, it became known that the Belgian public prosecutor's office is investigating whether European politicians were paid to spread Russian propaganda. In addition to Bystron, the investigation is also targeting Dutch MEP Marcel de Graaff (FvD) and German MEP Maximilian Krah (AfD). Ukrainian politician and businessman Viktor Medvedchuk, who is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, is believed to be the man behind Voice of Europe.[193]

See also

Concurrent elections

Notes

  1. ^ Strack-Zimmermann is the candidate representing ALDE. In addition Sandro Gozi is the candidate representing the EDP, and Valérie Hayer is the candidate representing L'Europe Ensemble
  2. ^ a b c d Anders Vistisen was selected to participate on behalf of the party in pre-election debates, but he is not a lead candidate.[77][78]
  3. ^ This is the legal threshold. The share of the vote needed to win a seat may be higher than this in some countries.
  4. ^ This is the maximum vote share necessary to mathematically guarantee winning a seat. It is here calculated as the Droop quota for each country. Where the legal threshold exceeds this threshold, the legal threshold is shown instead.
  5. ^ Depends on the constituency: 50% in the German-speaking electoral college, ~11.1% in the French-speaking electoral college, and ~7.1% in the Dutch-speaking electoral college.
  6. ^ a b Not enforced.
  7. ^ a b 100% divided by the number of seats.
  8. ^ a b c d Hare quota with residual fit by largest remainders
  9. ^ Denmark allows for electoral alliances between separate party lists.
  10. ^ Online voting in Estonia began on 3 June and ran until 8 June.
  11. ^ Seats are apportioned to parties nationally. A party can choose to only stand in some of the 16 states and have its national seat count be subapportioned to those states. Only the CDU and the CSU have done this in previous elections.
  12. ^ Depends on the constituency: 20% in Dublin, ~16.7% in Midlands–North-West and South. As Single transferable vote is a party-blind voting system, this threshold applies for an individual candidate, not for the party as a whole.
  13. ^ a b Seats are apportioned to parties nationally, then subapportioned to the constituencies.
  14. ^ As Single transferable vote is a party-blind voting system, this threshold applies for an individual candidate, not for the party as a whole.
  15. ^ Droop quota with residual fit by largest remainders
  16. ^ Lead candidate for ALDE, representing in the debate the entire Renew Europe parliamentary group
  17. ^ a b Lead candidate for EDP, representing in the debate the entire Renew Europe parliamentary group
  18. ^ a b Groups all parties not represented in the European Parliament into a group or non-inscrits.
  19. ^ Follows Europe Elects's assignment of parties into groups.
  20. ^ a b Groups all parties not represented in the European Parliament into "others", unless it is a member of a political party at the European level.

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Further reading

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