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2010 United States House of Representatives elections

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United States House of Representatives elections, 2010

← 2008 November 2, 2010

All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 5 (of the 6) non-voting members
 
Leader Nancy Pelosi John Boehner
Party Democratic Republican
Leader's seat California-8th Ohio-8th
Last election 257 seats, 59.1% 178 seats, 40.9%
Current seats 256 seats (including 1 vacancy), 58.9% 179 seats (including 1 vacancy), 41.1%
Seats needed -38 +39

The current congressional districts for the 111th Congress

Incumbent Speaker of the House

Nancy Pelosi
Democratic



This article summarizes all the elections in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2010 election cycle. For complete list of the races in all districts without any commentary, see United States House of Representatives elections, 2010 - complete list.

The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 2, 2010, halfway through President Barack Obama's first term in office. Elections will be held for all 435 seats, representing the 50 U.S. states. Elections also will be held for the delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five major U.S. territories. The only seat in the United States House of Representatives not up for election is that of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term and will next face election in 2012.

The winners of this election cycle will serve in the 112th Congress.

Background

Following the 2006 elections, Democrats took control of the House as well as the Senate in the 2008 elections. This was followed by Democrat Barack Obama's victory over Republican John McCain for the presidency.

In the 2008 Congressional elections, Democrats increased their majorities in both chambers. Of the 435 congressional districts, 242 were carried by Obama, while 193 voted for McCain. Of the districts Obama won, 34 elected a Republican to the House, while 49 of the districts McCain won elected a Democrat.[1]

Heading into the 2010 elections, both major political parties have been preparing to defend seats that they risk losing. This will be the last congressional election using congressional districts that were drawn based on the 2000 census.

Retiring incumbents

37 U.S. Representatives will retire at the end of their current term and 5 vacancies will be filled by special elections before November.

Democrats (17)

Republicans (20)

Incumbents defeated in primary

Predictions

Here are some predictions for the outcome of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections:

Overview

  • Congressional Quarterly.
    • Congressional Quarterly projects the Democrats will take 219 seats, the Republicans 180, and they consider 29 races too close to call.[36]
  • Rothenberg Political Report.
    • In April 2010, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog that "... the atmospherics remain strongly behind the GOP, and major Republican House gains are extremely likely" and that "it's clear that the battleground is almost entirely on Democratic soil. Obviously, control of the House is at risk."[37]
  • RealClearPolitics.
    • As of August 27, 2010, RCP projects the Republicans will take 206 seats, the Democrats will take 194, and 35 races are toss-ups.[38]
  • Crystal Ball
    • In a September 2010 column for his newsletter, Larry Sabato wrote "Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net."[39]
  • Charlie Cook
    • In a February 2010 interview with National Journal, he said that "it's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard."[40]
    • On August 17, 2010, The Cook Political Report raised its House forecast to a gain of between 35 and 45 seats, with the odds of an outcome larger than that range greater than the odds of a lesser outcome.[41]
  • Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight
    • As of September 10, 2010, Nate Silver's prediction model projects the Republicans will win (on average) 225.3 seats, and the Democrats will win 209.7. The Republicans have a two-in-three chance of winning the majority. [42]

Table

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included are currently considered safe for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)

District Incumbent RealClear[43] Cook[44] Crystal Ball[45] CQ Politics[46] Rothenberg[47]
AL-2 Bright (D) Lean D Pure Tossup Leans D Tossup Tossup
AL-5 (Griffith) (R) Lean R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R
AK-AL Young (R) Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
AZ-1 Kirkpatrick (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Tossup Tossup
AZ-3 (Shadegg) (R) Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R
AZ-5 Mitchell (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Leans D Tossup
AZ-8 Giffords (D) Lean D Pure Tossup Leans D Leans D Tossup
AR-1 (Berry) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Leans R Leans R
AR-2 (Snyder) (D) Likely R R Favored Likely R Leans R Likely R
AR-4 Ross (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
CA-3 Lungren (R) Lean R Leans R Leans R Leans R Likely R
CA-11 McNerney (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D Tossup
CA-18 Cardoza (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Leans D
CA-20 Costa (D) Leans D Safe D Safe D Safe D Tossup
CA-44 Calvert (R) Solid R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
CA-45 Bono Mack (R) Likely R R Favored Likely R Likely R Likely R
CA-47 Sanchez (D) Lean D Leans D Likely D Likely D Leans D
CO-3 Salazar (D) Tossup Leans D Likely D Leans D Leans D
CO-4 Markey (D) Tossup R Favored Tossup Tossup Leans R
CO-7 Perlmutter (D) Lean D Safe D Safe D Likely D Leans D
CT-4 Himes (D) Lean D D Favored Safe D Likely D Leans D
CT-5 C. Murphy (D) Likely D D Favored Safe D Likely D Leans D
DE-AL (Castle) (R) Lean D Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
FL-2 Boyd (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Tossup Tossup
FL-8 Grayson (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Tossup Leans R
FL-12 (Putnam) (R) Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
FL-22 Klein (D) Lean D D Favored Likely D Leans D Tossup
FL-24 Kosmas (D) Tossup R Favored Tossup Tossup Leans R
FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart) (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Leans R Likely R
GA-2 S. Bishop (D) Lean D Tossup/Tilts D Likely D Likely D Leans D
GA-8 Marshall (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D Tossup
GA-12 Barrow (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
HI-1 Djou (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Leans D Leans D
ID-1 Minnick (D) Leans D Leans D Leans D Tossup Likely D
IL-8 Bean (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Leans D
IL-10 (Kirk) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
IL-11 Halvorson (D) Tossup R Favored Tossup Tossup Leans R
IL-14 Foster (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Tossup Tossup Tossup
IL-17 Hare (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Safe D Tossup
IN-2 Donnelly (D) Lean D Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
IN-8 (Ellsworth) (D) Lean R Leans R Tossup Leans R Leans R
IN-9 Hill (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
IA-1 Braley (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Leans D
IA-2 Loebsack (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Leans D
IA-3 Boswell (D) Tossup Leans D Leans D Tossup Leans D
KS-3 (Moore) (D) Lean R Leans R Leans R Leans R Leans R
KS-4 (Tiahrt) (R) Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
KY-3 Yarmuth (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Likely D Leans D
KY-6 Chandler (D) Lean D Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
LA-2 Cao (R) Tossup D Favored Likely D Leans D Likely D
LA-3 (Melancon) (D) Likely R R Favored Safe R Leans R Likely R
ME-1 Pingree (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Leans D
ME-2 Michaud (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Leans D
MD-1 Kratovil (D) Tossup Leans R Tossup Leans R Leans R
MA-5 Tsongas (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
MA-6 Tierney (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
MA-10 (Delahunt) (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D Tossup
MI-1 (Stupak) (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilt R Tossup Tossup Leans R
MI-3 (Ehlers) (R) Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
MI-7 Schauer (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup Leans R
MI-9 Peters (D) Lean D D Favored Likely D Leans D Tossup
MI-15 Dingell (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
MN-1 Walz (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D
MN-6 Bachmann (R) Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
MS-1 Childers (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Leans R Leans R
MS-4 Taylor (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
MO-3 Carnahan (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
MO-4 Skelton (D) Lean D Leans D Leans D Leans D Tossup
NE-2 Terry (R) Likely R R Favored Likely R Likely R Likely R
NV-3 Titus (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Tossup Tossup
NH-1 Shea-Porter (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Leans R Leans R
NH-2 (Hodes) (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Leans R Leans R
NJ-3 Adler (D) Lean D Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D
NJ-12 Holt (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Leans D
NM-1 Heinrich (D) Lean D Leans D Leans D Leans D Tossup
NM-2 Teague (D) Tossup Leans R Tossup Leans R Leans R
NM-3 Luján (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
NY-1 T. Bishop (D) Lean D Leans D Leans D Likely D Tossup
NY-4 McCarthy (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
NY-13 McMahon (D) Lean D D Favored Likely D Likely D Tossup
NY-19 Hall (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D Tossup
NY-20 S. Murphy (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D Leans D
NY-23 Owens (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D Leans D
NY-24 Arcuri (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
NY-25 Maffei (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Likely D Leans D
NY-29 (Open) Likely R R Favored Safe R Leans R Likely R
NC-2 Etheridge (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Leans D
NC-4 Price (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
NC-7 McIntyre (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D
NC-8 Kissell (D) Tossup Leans D Leans D Tossup Leans R
NC-11 Shuler (D) Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D Tossup
ND-AL Pomeroy (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilt R Tossup Leans R Leans R
OH-1 Driehaus (D) Tossup Leans R Tossup Leans R Leans R
OH-6 Wilson (D) Lean D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
OH-12 Tiberi (R) Likely R R Favored Likely R Likely R Likely R
OH-13 Sutton (D) Lean D Leans D Leans D Leans D Tossup
OH-15 Kilroy (D) Tossup Leans R Tossup Leans R Leans R
OH-16 Boccieri (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup Leans R
OH-18 Space (D) Tossup Leans D Leans D Leans D Tossup
OK-2 Boren (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
OR-1 Wu (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D
OR-4 DeFazio (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
OR-5 Schrader (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D Tossup
PA-3 Dahlkemper (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Tossup Leans D
PA-4 Altmire (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Likely D Leans D
PA-6 Gerlach (R) Likely R R Favored Likely R Likely R Leans R
PA-7 (Sestak) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup Leans R
PA-8 P. Murphy (D) Tossup D Favored Leans D Tossup Tossup
PA-10 Carney (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Leans D Tossup
PA-11 Kanjorski (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilt R Tossup Tossup Leans R
PA-12 Critz (D) Lean D D Favored Leans D Leans D Tossup
PA-15 Dent (R) Lean R R Favored Leans R Leans R Leans R
PA-17 Holden (D) Likely D D Favored Likely D Likely D Leans D
RI-1 (Kennedy) (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D
SC-5 Spratt (D) Tossup Pure tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
SD-AL Herseth Sandlin (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Tossup Tossup Tossup
TN-4 Davis (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Leans D Leans D
TN-5 Cooper (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
TN-6 (Gordon) (D) Likely R R Favored Safe R Leans R Likely R
TN-8 (Tanner) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Leans R Leans R
TX-17 Edwards (D) Tossup Leans R Tossup Tossup Leans R
TX-23 Rodriguez (D) Tossup Leans D Leans D Leans D Tossup
TX-27 Ortiz (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
UT-2 Matheson (D) Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
VA-2 Nye (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Tossup Tossup
VA-5 Perriello (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Tossup Leans R
VA-9 Boucher (D) Lean D Leans D Leans D Leans D Tossup
VA-11 Connolly (D) Lean D D Favored Likely D Leans D Tossup
WA-2 Larsen (D) Lean D Leans D Likely D Likely D Leans D
WA-3 (Baird) (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Tossup Leans R Leans R
WA-8 Reichert (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Leans R Likely R
WA-9 Smith (D) Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Leans D
WV-1 (Mollohan) (D) Tossup Pure tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
WV-3 Rahall (D) Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D Leans D
WI-3 Kind (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Leans D
WI-7 (Obey) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup Tossup Tossup Leans R
WI-8 Kagen (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Likely D Tossup

See also

References

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