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2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

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Republican presidential primaries, 2012
← 2008 January 3, 2012, to present 2016 →
  File:Romney Clown.jpg File:Gingrich Fat.jpg
Candidate Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich
Party Republican Republican
Home state Massachusetts Georgia
Delegate count 74[1] 25[1]
States carried 2 1
Popular vote 1,070,901 816,984
Percentage 40.5% 30.9%
  File:Santorum Joke.jpg
Candidate Rick Santorum Ron Paul
Party Republican Republican
Home state Pennsylvania Texas
Delegate count 1[1] 3[1]
States carried 1 0
Popular vote 378,606 278,439
Percentage 14.3% 10.5%
Results of the 2012 Republican Party primaries and caucuses
Orange denotes a state won by Mitt Romney.
Purple denotes a state won by Newt Gingrich.
Green denotes a state won by Rick Santorum.
Grey denotes a state that has not yet started/completed voting. Note that not all states are "winner take all".
Previous Republican nominee before election

John McCain

 Republican presidential candidate-elect

TBD

2012 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Minor parties
Related races
← 2008 2012 2016 →

The 2012 Republican presidential primaries are the selection processes in which voters of the Republican Party will choose their nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 presidential election. There are 2,286 delegates.[2] A candidate must accumulate 1,144 delegate votes to win.[3]

The primary contest began with a fairly wide field, and is the first presidential primary influenced by the Tea Party movement. This was the first presidential primary affected by a Supreme Court ruling that allowed unlimited fundraising for candidates through super PACs. Two candidates who ran in 2008, Congressman Ron Paul of Texas and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, also ran in 2012.

Romney took an early lead in polls with the support of much of the Republican establishment.[4] However, his lead over the Republican field has been precarious, due to the entry of new candidates who drew considerable media attention between April and August 2011. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota received significant support in polls after winning the Ames Straw Poll, but she lost some of her momentum when Texas Governor Rick Perry was propelled by significant national Republican support to join the race in August 2011; he performed strongly in polls, immediately becoming a serious contender.[5][6]

Following a series of poor performances in debates, Perry lost his momentum to Herman Cain. Cain's viability as a candidate was seriously jeopardized after allegations of a history of sexual harassment surfaced in the media, with his campaign being suspended on December 3, 2011 despite his unyielding denials of any misconduct. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who stressed the need to beat incumbent President Barack Obama and to avoid intra-party disputes, began making a comeback in November 2011, both in polls and fundraising.[7] Gingrich's popularity began to wane in mid-December under focused attacks by Romney.[8][9]

Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania enjoyed a late surge in support immediately prior to the January 3, 2012, Iowa caucuses, the first contest of the primary season, and narrowly prevailed over Mitt Romney there. Romney was expected to virtually lock up the nomination in South Carolina, but lost to Gingrich, opening the race to a longer and more unpredictable campaign. January 31, 2012 Mitt Romney won the Florida Primary, a winner-take-all state, bringing him back much needed momentum. February 2, 2012 Donald Trump endorsed Mitt Romney despite early speculation that he was going to endorse Newt Gingrich. Trump, who initially considered to run himself, backed the candidate fresh off his win in Florida two days earlier.

Background

The U.S. economy suffered a recession from 2007 to 2009, median incomes fell for Americans, and unemployment, while falling from a high of 9.9% in 2008,[10] has remained above 8% so far through Obama's term in office.[11] Polling showed voters who approved of his "handling of the economy" fell from 60% at the start of his term to the mid-30s by 2011.[12] Since 2008, the Republican Party has experienced big gains in white voters, including younger and poorer Whites who trended Democratic.[13][14][15] The results of the 2010 census also reduced the influence of traditionally blue states in the electoral college.

Polling found that Americans were increasingly frustrated with the U.S. government as a whole, and the Republican Party shared in those high disapproval ratings.[16] In particular, although the majority of Americans felt Obama did not have a successful plan to bring jobs, they trusted Congress even less to create them.[17][18] The House of Representatives, now with a substantial Republican majority since January 2011, refused to raise taxes and was engaged in a lengthy dispute over the debt ceiling. House Speaker John Boehner led negotiations with President Obama over raising the debt ceiling. The Tea Party movement, which was active in political town hall meetings, was opposed to raising the ceiling.[19] LGBT issues have been one of the major discussion topics among candidates. Amid intense debates, almost all Republican candidates have opposed same-sex marriage, expressing support for "traditional marriage" between a man and a woman. Only Jon Huntsman has supported civil unions.[20][21] Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry have particularly spoken out strongly against gay marriage. Ron Paul has said that he doesn't believe that the government should enforce a definition of marriage. [22] Santorum has opposed gay adoption, Gingrich and Herman Cain have described being gay as "a choice", and Bachmann has described gays as having a "sexual dysfunction".[23][24][25][26]

Concerns about the security and support of Israel have also been apparent in the lead-up to the 2012 elections, affecting Jewish support for both Obama and the Republican Party.[27][28] The nuclear armament of Iran was a political issue during the Republican primary, and all candidates opposed Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Perry, and Bachmann all took hawkish stands on Iran, and advocated for military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities if other means of stopping Iran's attempt to develop nuclear weapons failed;[29] Paul opposed both military action and economic sanctions.[30]

A record number of advocacy group pledges were signed by Republican candidates this election cycle. The pledges candidates promised included social issues and fiscal policy.[31][32] Every major Republican candidate promised to repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) if elected president in 2012, and many[who?] said it would be a top priority.[33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41] Rick Santorum was an enthusiastic supporter of pledges, and was called a "Super Pledger" for his participation and defense of the practice.[42] Jon Huntsman declined to sign any pledges, making him the only candidate in the 2012 cycle without one.[43] The Susan B. Anthony List released a pro-life pledge signed by several candidates but not Romney.[44] Pledges against same-sex marriage from the National Organization for Marriage and the Family Leader were signed by several to affirm that they would uphold the Defense of Marriage Act and prevent federal recognition of state marriages.[45] The Family Leader's pledge was highly controversial for its statements about Muslims, slavery and pornography.[46] Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann signed the pledge, which also included a clause for the candidate to pledge to stay faithful to his or her spouse.[42][47][48] Bachmann denied her pledge included the slavery language, despite insistence by the Family Leader that she received the full document.[49][50][51] Santorum said he was "taken aback initially" when reading the document, but signed.[52][53] Candidates[which?] also signed promises to push for a balanced budget amendment (the pledge was released by the group Let Freedom Ring), to reduce the national debt (Strong America Now[dead link]), and to prevent any tax increases (Americans for Tax Reform).

Calendar

Main article: United States presidential election, 2012 timeline
See also: United States presidential primary
Republican primaries and caucuses calendar 2012

In April 2008, the Standing Committee on Rules of the Republican National Committee recommended the adoption of the "Ohio Plan", that would, starting in 2012, divide the primary states into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states comprising fifty electoral votes would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.[54]

The 2008 Republican National Convention did not approve the Ohio Plan. Instead, the Rules of the Republican Party adopted by the Convention provided that the timing of binding delegate selection contests would generally be subject to the same rules as the 2008 delegate selection contests.[55] On August 6, 2010, the Republican National Committee (RNC) adopted new rules for the timing of elections, with 103 votes in favor out of 144.[56] Under this plan, elections for delegates to the national convention were to be divided into three periods:[57]

  • February 2012: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina,
  • March 2012: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates,
  • April 2012, and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections.

The only early state that adhered to the new rules was Nevada. Florida scheduled its contest early in violation of the rules, pressuring other states to push back their contests. Being in violation of RNC rules, New Hampshire, Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Michigan were penalized with a loss of half of their delegates, including their RNC delegates. New Hampshire was penalized from 23 delegates to 12, South Carolina from 50 to 25, Florida from 99 to 50, Arizona from 58 to 29 and Michigan from 56 to 30. Iowa, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri also violated the rules by scheduling early contests, but since these contests do not bind any national delegates they were not penalized.[58]

Primary schedule

  • There are two type of contests, caucus and primary, which are regulated in many different ways in the local states.
  • There are three types of delegates: 3 members of the Republican National Committee from each nonpenalized state (RNC), delegates elected At-large in the state (AL) and delegates elected in each congressional district (CD)
  • Delegates can be bound (pledged), meaning legally bound to vote for a candidate for at least the first ballot at the National Convention. All 3 types of delegates can be bound, depending on the local state rules.
  • Delegates can be unbound (unpledged). There are 123 RNC delegates that are free to vote for any candidate they like, and the candidates are free to woo them. Up to 340 AL and CD delegates are unbound. They are elected at conventions through the land, and the candidates work to get as many of their supporters to join these convention through caucus and primaries in the respective states.
  • The bound delegates are legally allocated in 3 different ways, by Winner-take-all, proportional or at convention. From state to state there are many different variations of these 3 ways. As an example: Many states have thresholds that candidates must meet to be given delegates proportional, these thresholds goes from 10% to 25% procent of the votes. But then again a few states that elect delegates proportional have no such threshold.[59]
Date Location Type Unbound
Delegates		 Bound
Delegates		 Delegate
Allocation		 Winner Second Third
Jan 3 Iowa Caucus
28
0
 N/A Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Ron Paul
Jan 10
 New Hampshire# Primary (semi-closed)
0
12
 Proportional Mitt Romney Ron Paul Jon Huntsman
Jan 21 South Carolina# Primary (open)
0
25
 Proportional Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Rick Santorum
Jan 31 Florida# Primary (closed)
0
50
 Winner-take-all Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum
Feb 4
 Nevada Caucus
0
28
 Proportional
Error in Template:Date table sorting: 'Feb. 4–11' is an invalid date
 Maine Caucus
24
0
 N/A
Feb 7 Colorado Caucus
36
0
 N/A
Minnesota Caucus
40
0
 N/Aa
Missouri Primary (nonbinding)b
0
0
 N/A
Feb 18 Guam Caucus
9
0
 N/A
Feb 28 Arizona# Primary (closed)
0
29
 Winner-take-all
Michigan# Primary (closed)
0
30
 Proportional (AL)
Winner-take-all (CD)
Mar 3 Washington Caucus
3
40
 Conventionc
Mar 6
Super
Tuesday		 Alaska Caucus
3
24
 Proportional
Georgia Primary (semi-closed)
0
76
 Proportional
Idaho Caucus
9
23
 Proportional
Massachusetts Primary (semi-closed)
3
38
 Proportional
North Dakota Caucus
28
0
 N/A
Ohio Primary (semi-closed)
3
63
 Proportional (AL)d
Winner-take-all (CD)
Oklahoma Primary (closed)
3
40
 Proportionald
Tennessee Primary (open)
3
55
 Proportionale
Vermont Primary (open)
0
17
 Proportional (AL)d
Winner-take-all (CD)
Virginia Primary (open)
3
46
 Proportional (AL)d
Winner-take-all (CD)
Mar 7Mar. 6–10 Wyoming Caucus
29
0
 N/A
Mar 10 Kansas Caucus
0
40
 Proportional (AL)
Winner-take-all (CD)
U.S. Virgin Islands Caucus
9
0
 N/Af
Mar 13 Alabama Primary (open)
3
47
 Proportionald
American Samoa Caucus
9
0
 N/Aa
Hawaii Caucus
3
17
 Proportional
Mississippi Primary (open)
3
37
 Proportional
Mar 17 Missouri Caucus
0
52
 Conventionc
Mar 18 Puerto Rico Primary (open)
3
20
 Winner-take-all
Mar 20 Illinois Primary (open)
69
0
 N/A
Mar 24 Louisiana Primary (closed)
21
25
 Proportional (AL)
Unbound (CD)
Apr 3 Maryland Primary (closed)
3
34
 Winner-take-all
Texas Primary (open)
3
152
 Proportional
Washington, D.C. Primary (closed)
3
16
 Winner-take-all
Wisconsin Primary (open)
3
39
 Winner-take-all
Apr 24 Connecticut Primary (closed)
3
25
 Proportional (AL)d
Winner-take-all (CD)
Delaware Primary (closed)
0
17
 Winner-take-all
New York Primary (closed)
3
92
 Proportionald
Pennsylvania Primary (closed)
72
0
 N/A
Rhode Island Primary (semi-closed)
3
16
 Proportional
May 8 Indiana Primary (open)
19
27
 Winner-take-all (CD)
Unbound (AL)
North Carolina Primary (semi-closed)
3
52
 Proportional
West Virginia Primary (semi-closed)
3
28
 Proportional
May 15 Nebraska Primary (nonbinding)b
3
32
 Conventionc
Oregon Primary (closed)
3
25
 Proportional
May 22 Arkansas Primary (open)
3
33
 Proportionald
Kentucky Primary (closed)
3
42
 Proportional
Jun 5 California Primary (closed)
3
169
 Winner-take-all
Montana Primary (nonbinding)b
26
0
 N/A
New Jersey Primary (semi-closed)
0
50
 Winner-take-all
New Mexico Primary (closed)
3
20
 Proportional
South Dakota Primary (closed)
3
25
 Proportional
Jun 26 Utah Primary (semi-closed)
3
37
 Winner-take-all
Jul 31 Northern Mariana Is. Caucus
9
0
 N/A

Notes

# NH, SC, FL, AZ and MI were penalized for breaking RNC schedule guidelines. The penalty cuts the delegation number in half and removes voting privileges from the party leader delegates.
a The state, district or territory convention can vote to bind some or all of the delegates.
b This is simply a high-profile strawpoll. The real contest happens later.
c The delegation will be elected on the floor of the state convention based on stated presidential preference.
d If any candidate receives more than 50% of the votes it becomes a Winner-take-all contest.
e If any candidate receives more than 66% of the votes it becomes a Winner-take-all contest.
f Delegates are bound if they declare themselves for a candidate.

Results

Main articles: Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries and Republican Party presidential candidates, 2012
  • The delegate count in this article contains only the delegate that each candidate have secured. That is delegates from each race that are legally pledged (bound) to vote for the candidate and unpledged (unbound) delegates that have commited themselve to the candidate. For projected results from different news organisations that included unpledged (unbound) delegates not yet elected or commited (as the delegation from Iowa) see the main article.
Candidates

Mitt
Romney

Newt
Gingrich

Ron
Paul

Rick
Santorum

Jon
Huntsman

Rick
Perry

Michele
Bachmann
Home state Massachusetts Georgia Texas Pennsylvania Utah Texas Minnesota
Secured delegates[60] 74 25 3 1 2 0 0
Total votes 1,070,490
(41%) 		816,735
(31%) 		278,364
(11%) 		378,500
(14%) 		50,073
(2%) 		23,623
(1%) 		10,846
(0.4%)
States won New Hampshire
Florida 		South Carolina – Iowa – – –
States - 2nd place South Carolina
Iowa 		Florida New Hampshire – – – –
States - 3rd place – - Iowa South Carolina
Florida 		New Hampshire – –
Suspension date – – – – January 16, 2012 January 19, 2012 January 4, 2012
Dropped Out in 2011

Tim
Pawlenty
Herman
Cain
Gary
Johnson
Aug. 14 Dec. 3 Dec. 28


2011: Start of the race

Spring: Invisible primary

Donald Trump dominated headlines as a possible candidate in April 2011, discussing foreign policy and the controversial "birther" issue.[61]

The race for the Republican primaries began slowly in 2011. Gallup polls found that historically the Republican Party had a clear front-runner by March. In surveys, Republicans said they wanted to see Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney run.[62]

In February and March 2011, the Republican candidates, as well as the party as a whole, were involved in a discussion on radical and political Islam. The Republican Party courted Muslim voters during Bush's 2000 campaign but had lost nearly the entire demographic by 2008.[63] In the 2012 cycle, the supposed threat of Sharia law in the United States became a political issue.[64] Speculated candidate Mike Huckabee made statements criticizing Islam.[65] Rick Santorum was noted as saying Sharia law was "evil". He also said that American history books were corrupted, and that the Crusades were not an act of aggression by the Christians.[66]

When Herman Cain was asked if he would appoint a Muslim to his Cabinet as President, he said, "I will not. And here's why. There is this creeping attempt, this attempt, to gradually ease Sharia law and the Muslim faith into our government. It does not belong in our government. This is what happened to Europe. And little by little, to try to be politically correct, they made this little change. They made this little change. And now they've got a social problem that they don't know what to do with hardly."[67] The phrase "creeping Sharia" became a political catchphrase. By May, Sharia law was a political "litmus test" for the Republican candidates.[68]

Republican enthusiasm for the field of candidates was weak in April, and polling found few Americans could even name the Republican contenders.[69][70] Considerable media attention was given in April 2011 to Donald Trump, who considered running for the nomination and repeatedly criticized Obama, saying his policies were failing the U.S. economy. Trump said the United States was suffering in the global economy because of poor trade deals, saying "I think the biggest threat is that our jobs are being stolen by other countries. We’re not going to have any jobs here pretty soon." He pointed to the Chinese economy in particular and proposed a 25% tariff on Chinese imports to solve the trade discrepancy between the U.S. and China.[71] Trump seized the issue of conspiracy theories about whether Barack Obama was an American citizen and was vocal in insisting that Obama show his "real" birth certificate. On April 28, Obama released his long form birth certificate.[72] Trump never officially declared or filed an FEC report, and made it clear on May 15 that he would not be running for the GOP nomination.[73]

Governors Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie and Haley Barbour all decided not to run in May, citing family concerns.[74][74][75] In May, Newt Gingrich joined the race, but his credibility suffered a setback one week later, following his criticism of the Ryan Plan, a popular budget among Republicans.[76] One month later, his entire senior staff quit en-masse, citing personal difficulties with Gingrich, known to be highly-independent and un-choreographed.[77] In the aftermath, polls indicated Gingrich had lost ground with primary voters[78] and he struggled in polling until September 2011.[79][80]

With few declared candidates, sponsoring news organizations postponed many of the debates in 2011.[81][82] In the first debate, held on Fox News, candidates were asked for their opinion on the U.S. debt crisis. Host Bret Baier asked candidates if they would agree to raise taxes by $1 for each new $10 in budget cuts; each candidate refused, rejecting raising taxes.[83][84][85] Ron Paul stood out from other candidates, arguing for ending the war on drugs to great applause.[86][87][88] At the end of the debate, in which most of the leading candidates did not participate, a focus group assembled for Fox News declared Herman Cain the winner.[89][90] Viewers said he articulated clearly and directly on conservative principles, and outshined Tim Pawlenty, who at the time was regarded as the only "top-tier candidate" in the debate.[91][92][93][94][95] Cain succeeded in gaining some momentum, and his supporters were said to have the most enthusiasm for their candidate.[96][97][98][99]

Summer: Draft movements

Two candidates from the 2008 presidential primaries, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, ran again in the 2012 primary campaign. Mitt Romney was an early frontrunner, and he maintained a careful, strategic campaign that centered on being an establishment candidate. Time magazine predicted his approach would fail, saying the Republican Party had changed from "country-club aristocracy" to "pitchfork populism" in 2011.[100] Republicans questioned Romney's commitment to conservative ideals, and often accused him of being a flip-flopper for his changing positions on issues such as state-mandated health care, abortion, climate change, and same sex marriage.[101][102] Romney maintained a weak lead of 20% nationally throughout 2011, raising doubt that he was a "true frontrunner". He enjoyed a significant money advantage and had the highest name recognition in the field, and many voters found him to be the most "electable" in the general election.[103]

Ron Paul, who ran for president in 1988 and 2008, received warmer support than in previous years. He was a strong fundraiser,[104] raising millions over the Internet through "money bombs",[105][106][107] one-day fundraising events launched by his grassroot supporters.[108][109] His libertarian positions on the IRS, the Federal Reserve, and non-interventionist foreign policy were taken by other candidates, unlike in 2008.[110] He finished a close second in the Iowa Ames Straw Poll and first in the California straw poll,[111] demonstrating that he was a mainstream candidate.[112] A study found that Paul was not widely-covered by news sources in 2011, although he easily shadowed Gary Johnson from much public recognition.[113]

Michele Bachmann speaks at a rally. She was propelled in the race with support from the Tea Party movement.

Michele Bachmann, a Tea Party favorite, started her campaign for president in June 2011, and soon began to poll near front-runner Mitt Romney.[114] She received national publicity and was featured at length in The New Yorker and Newsweek.[115] In Iowa, she engaged in a bitter rivalry with Tim Pawlenty, as she overtook his constituency in evangelical Christian voters. When, on August 14, she won the Ames Straw Poll by a close margin over Ron Paul, she effectively ended Pawlenty's viability as a candidate and he withdrew from the race the next day.[116] Pawlenty had invested heavily in Iowa and needed a strong bump in the polls to improve his poor fundraising.[117] Bachmann's public profile grew during the race, and Forbes rated her the 22nd most powerful woman in the world in August 2011.[118] The Forbes list denoted Bachmann as influential in politics, while ranking Sarah Palin at 34th most powerful for her place as a celebrity.[119] However, Bachmann lost momentum and fell back into single digits.

Over the summer of 2011, several Republican groups began a nationwide campaign to draft Texas governor Rick Perry to compete for the nomination. Perry began an aggressive networking and fundraising strategy to launch a viable campaign. He depended largely on evangelical Christians as his base, and held a prayer meeting with supporters one week before announcing his campaign. The prayer was held to save "a nation in crisis".[120] His entry on August 14, 2011, garnered tremendous publicity and made him an instant top-tier candidate. He polled as the Republican frontrunner within days of his entrance into the race, posing a serious threat to other Christian conservatives, such as Michele Bachmann.[121][122]

Rick Perry speaking to voters in Iowa

Perry's campaign focused on themes of economic recovery. Touting his record as governor of Texas, he pointed to the 1 million jobs that were created during his 10-year tenure. The Associated Press found Perry to be a confident, personable campaigner.[123] On Perry's first day of campaigning, he stated, "I respect all the other candidates in the field but there is no one that can stand toe-to-toe with us."[124] Even his critics consistently complimented his good-spirited personality and tireless campaigning.[125] Criticism of Perry began almost the moment he entered the race. His connection to Texan cowboy culture and his Southern drawl sounded similar to George W. Bush, for whom he had served as lieutenant governor. Critics drew many parallels between him and the unpopular former president. Perry drew wide criticism when he said that it would be "almost treacherous – or treasonous in my opinion" for the Federal Reserve to be "printing money to play politics".[126][127][128] Perry's campaign was scrutinized for conservative ideas in his book, Fed Up. Perry back-tracked from views he had on repealing the income tax and his criticism of Medicare.[129][130][131] Perry stood firm by his statements on Social Security, calling it an "illegal Ponzi scheme" during his campaign.[132] His record on tort reform in Texas also drew criticism from trial lawyers, who feared that a Perry administration would lead to wide tort-focused legislation.[133] Perry's lackluster college grades at Texas A&M raised fears that he was not an intellectual leader.[134] On the campaign trail, he told a boy that evolution by natural selection was "a theory with holes in it" and suggested that the data on global warming was manipulated. His disagreement with scientific consensus turned off socially moderate Republicans and prompted a search for fresh, more-centrist candidates.[135]

Dissatisfaction with the Republican field was highest amongst the college-educated, who hoped Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan would enter the race.[135] By the end of the summer, the field of candidates seemed to be settled,[19] as Chris Christie, Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush all said no to activists who asked them to run.[136][137][138] George Pataki, a moderate former governor, decided against running, and time was running out for Rudy Giuliani[139] and Sarah Palin, who were losing speculation as candidates.[140][141] Sarah Palin had received heavy speculation beginning in 2009, when she resigned as governor of Alaska.[142] Throughout 2010 and 2011, she remained politically active, endorsing candidates in the midterm elections,[143] and launching a "One Nation" bus tour across the United States.[144] Palin further increased speculation in May 2011 when she purchased a house in Arizona that many saw as a possible campaign headquarters.[145] Enthusiasm for her potential run dropped as time went on, and by September 2011, a majority of Republicans and independents preferred that she would not run.[146][147] On October 5, Palin officially removed her name from consideration for the nomination.[148] In September, large donors encouraged Chris Christie to reconsider the presidential race, owing to their dissatisfaction with Perry and Romney.[149][150] On October 4, 2011, Christie announced definitively that he would not run, saying "now is not my time".[151]

Fall: Debate season

Main article: Republican Party presidential debates, 2012
File:Republican presidential debate in Iowa.jpg
Candidates at a 2012 Republican presidential debate in August 2011.
Herman Cain gained frontrunner status in October 2011. He ended his campaign December 3, 2011, after media reports of alleged sexual misconduct surfaced.

Beginning in September 2011, the Republicans held a frequent pace of televised debates—5 debates in 6 weeks.[152] The ratings for the debates were far higher than those of the 2008 primaries, and the impact of the debates on the candidates' success was significant.[153] Perry and Romney, the frontrunners, sparred with each other and received criticism from other candidates.[154] Huntsman distanced himself from the Republican Party as a whole, saying it was becoming the "anti-science party", and would be in a losing position for the general election if it chose Perry.[155][156][157][158]

Huntsman debated Romney's positions on China, saying Romney could incite a trade war for calling China a "currency manipulator".[159] Huntsman argued that he was more electable in the general election than all of his opponents, and predicted that the Perry–Romney rivalry would fizzle into obscurity; he drew parallels to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson from the 2008 election.[160][161][162]

Bachmann, who had been losing ground to Perry, attacked his actions as governor of Texas to vaccinate teenage girls against HPV.[163] Bachmann said Perry was influenced by the Merck pharmaceutical company, and said the vaccination trampled on the girls' rights, who she said "didn't have a choice". Bachmann told the media that a voter came to her and claimed her child developed mental retardation from the vaccine.[164] After scientists disputed her claim as baseless, she refused to retract the statement, and insisted the vaccine had dangerous side effects.[165][166][167] According to The Weekly Standard, Bachmann's scientific illiteracy on the HPV scare created an implosion for her campaign, which lost significant support.[168][169]

Perry's performance at the debates was widely panned, as political analysts noticed him in a pattern of becoming lethargic and incoherent as time wore on, and found some of his statements "cringeworthy" to conservatives.[170][171][172][173] In one debate, he froze when stating the three government agencies he wanted to eliminate, forgetting the third.[174] As a result,[175][176] he lost supporters to Herman Cain.[177][178][179] Cain insisted that his momentum was not a rebuke of Perry.[180]

During the debates, Herman Cain pushed his "9-9-9" economic plan and a Chilean-inspired model for reforming Social Security, receiving lively applause.[181] Cain rose above Mitt Romney in several polls and became a frontrunner with strong fundraising. His campaign was dogged by a series of surfacing sexual harassment allegations, which detracted from his campaigning.[182][182] Cain stated that the accusations were politically[183] and racially motivated,[184] and said he could not remember if he knew one of the accusers or not.[185] Despite the allegations, Cain continued to lead in polls[186] but experienced a sharp drop in female support.[187]

Cain unequivocally denied all sexual misconduct charges on national television. Using vocal tone technology available to law enforcement, a private investigator determined that Cain was telling the truth about one accuser.[188] The Associated Press revealed that another accuser had a history of making workplace allegations for legal settlements,[189] and no others had come forward to publicly corroborate their stories.[190][191] A fourth woman told the press that she had a 13-year extramarital affair with Cain, and that the two had been having a sexual relationship up until the start of his presidential campaign.[192] Cain denied that he had had an affair with the fourth woman, but her story was particularly damaging because Cain's wife did not know that he was financially supporting the woman.[193][194][195] On December 3, 2011, Cain suspended his campaign.[196][197]

Gingrich engaged in a pattern of challenging debate moderators for the wording and time limits of their questions,[198] and invoked Reagan's Commandment, vowing to restrain from negative campaigning. He later seemed to change his position on that and became one of the most negative campaigners to date, mainly attacking governor Mitt Romney.[199][200] Gingrich repeatedly complimented Rick Santorum trying to team up against Romney trying to sell himself as unifying the party.[201][202] By December 2011, Gingrich became frontrunner and was attacked by the media and his rivals for his past work with Freddie Mac.[202] Romney argued that Gingrich should return money he was paid for work for Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored enterprise that was unpopular for its role in the United States housing bubble. Gingrich defended his work with Freddie Mac, saying that he supported efforts to increase home ownership and denied doing any lobbying. Gingrich fired back at Romney, who called him a career politician, telling him the "only reason you didn't become a career politician is you lost to Teddy Kennedy".[203][204]

Romney's attacks intensified on Gingrich, as he said he was too "zany" and "unreliable" in his personal temperament to be President.[203] Gingrich pointed out that Romney had made money from "bankrupting companies and laying off employees", a reference to Romney's business practices as head of Bain Capital.[205] A New York Times story featured Gingrich's record on health care, finding that he supported bailout monies that funded electronic health records, and often sided with Democrats such as Tom Daschle and Hillary Clinton on Medicare's expansion for prescription drug benefits.[206]

January & February: Early states

Main article: Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

From January 3 to March 5, the early series of primaries and caucuses take place. The rules are different for many of the states, as delegate selection is proportionate rather than winner take all as it has been in earlier cycles. On March 6, a dozen states hold their primaries at the same time, and this event has long been called Super Tuesday.

Iowa

Gingrich and his wife Callista at a campaign event. Gingrich lost his lead in Iowa quickly before the caucus, attributed to super PAC-funded negative ads.[207][208][209]
Main article: Iowa Republican caucuses, 2012

In the few weeks before the Iowa caucus, Gingrich's lead quickly began to evaporate. Iowans were bombarded with over $4.4 million in negative advertising on Gingrich from super PACs sympathetic to Mitt Romney and others.[210][211][212][213] Romney refused to denounce the attacks and claimed that it was illegal for him to repudiate their TV ads, although Politico found that Romney personally coordinated a fundraiser with the super PAC.[213] Gingrich attempted to defend his public image in Iowa through meeting with voters, and criticized his rivals for their inaction in speaking up on the super PACs.[214] He acknowledged that his positive campaign had been a weakness, and had allowed his rivals to gain the upper hand through negative attacks.[215] Ron Paul bought TV ads attacking Gingrich for his apparent flip-flops on abortion,[216] a hot button issue for evangelical Christians.[217] Ron Paul enjoyed a significant upswing in Iowa, and was noted for a well-organized and well-funded campaign infrastructure.[218] In the last few days before the caucus, Rick Santorum's campaign experienced more media attention and his popularity surged to caucus day. On the night of the caucuses, Romney was reported the winner of Iowa by only eight votes over Santorum,[219] but after the results were certified, Santorum was given the win, beating Romney by 34 votes, despite the results from 8 districts being lost.[220] The results of the Iowa caucuses are nonbinding and all delegates from the state are free to vote for the candidate of their choice in the Convention.[221] Following the caucus, Michelle Bachmann dropped out. Rick Perry briefly reassessed his campaign, but decided to continue. Because of the close result and the incomplete records, and the lack of physical ballots to be recounted, the actual winner is not certain. Many are treating it as a two-way tie, including the Iowa Republican executive director, who claimed "It's a split decision"[222].

New Hampshire

Jon Huntsman invested heavily in New Hampshire. After finishing third, he withdrew from the race and endorsed Romney.
Main article: New Hampshire Republican primary, 2012

Mitt Romney easily won the primary with 39% of the vote, followed by Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman. Romney's win in New Hampshire was seen as a given; he had persistently showed popularity in that state, but rivals were intensely fighting for a second-place finish there.[223] Romney won seven of the state's delegates to the Republican National Convention, while Ron Paul won three and Jon Huntsman two.[224] Huntsman, a moderate, had staked his candidacy on New Hampshire and invested heavily in at least a strong second place showing there. Huntsman polled at 1-2% nationally and his 17% finish in New Hampshire, after 150 campaign events, $2 million in self-financing, and $2.5 million from his father,[225][226] was seen as lackluster.[227][228] Campaigns & Elections noted that his singular focus on New Hampshire made it impossible for him to spin around his third place finish as anything but a failure.[229]

South Carolina

Main article: South Carolina Republican primary, 2012

Romney appeared to be the eventual Republican nominee in national polls, and analysts predicted that the race for the Republican nomination would soon be over if Romney prevailed in South Carolina; the state has reliably voted for the winner of the Republican nomination since 1980.[230] However, South Carolina, with its higher percentages of veterans, evangelicals and social conservatives, was seen as an unlikely territory for Romney, who was generally considered a moderate. Gingrich, who was originally from neighboring Georgia, waged an aggressive and successful campaign in South Carolina and underscored its importance, saying bluntly, "If I don't win the primary Saturday, we will probably nominate a moderate. And the odds are fairly high he will lose to Obama."[231][232] Gingrich urged Santorum and Perry to drop out and support him in the days before the primary, arguing that their support could coalesce the "anti-Romney" vote and stop him from a victory.[233] Two days before the vote, Rick Perry dropped his bid and endorsed Newt Gingrich, who went on to win the primary.

Gingrich gained momentum in South Carolina after two strong debate performances, and detractors began to increase their attacks on him, including criticism of his past divorces.[234] Two days before the primary, ABC News aired an interview with his former wife criticizing Gingrich, and fraudulent emails circulating rumors that Gingrich had coerced his former wife into having an abortion were sent in the days before the election.[235] Gingrich was aided by a $5 million donation from Sheldon Adelson, which helped fund TV ads critical of Romney's corporate success at Bain Capital.[236][237][238] Romney's deflection of criticism towards his business practices at Bain Capital as well as his reluctance to reveal his income tax returns raised suspicions that he was hiding something. His supporters and detractors urged him to reveal his tax returns in January,[239] but Romney insisted on doing so later in April, when he would likely have already won the nomination.[240][241] Romney attempted to deflect the issue and invoked Gingrich to release his ethics charges as Speaker, despite the fact that Gingrich's congressional record has been public for over 15 years.[242][243][244] Polls taken as recent as the day before the election showed Gingrich with a commanding lead, leading Romney by double digits.[245] On January 21, 2012, Gingrich scored an "easy victory" in the South Carolina primary with over 40% of the vote.[246] For the first time since 1980, three different Republican candidates captured Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.[247]

Florida

Main article: Florida Republican primary, 2012

Florida would have been represented by 99 delegates, but the Florida Republican Party set the date of the primary for January 31, violating the guidelines of the Republican National Committee (RNC), so the Florida delegation to the National Convention has been reduced to 50 delegates; none of them are RNC (or super) delegates. Delegates will be selected by the State Executive Board and awarded to the winner of the primary on a winner-take-all basis. The delegates are bound for three ballots at the National Convention.

Although Gingrich led Romney by double digits in opinion polls immediately following the former's victory in South Carolina, by the time of the January 31 primary, he was widely expected to lose.[1] The Florida campaign was noted for its negativity, with one media group determining that 92% of television advertisements run in the week prior to the primary were negative.[2] Romney took Florida with 46% of votes cast to Gingrich's 32%, Santorum's 13%, and Paul's 7%.

Nevada

Main article: Nevada Republican caucuses, 2012

Nevada was originally going to hold their caucuses on February 18, but after Florida moved their primary into January, Nevada contemplated following suit. As a compromise, Nevada moved it to February 4, and the RNC promised that the Nevada delegates would be seated on the National Convention floor "in the best positions" and they would have prime hotel space.[248]

Maine

Main article: Maine Republican caucuses, 2012

Maine will hold their non-binding caucuses February 4-11 for 24 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.[249]

Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri

Main articles: Colorado Republican caucuses, 2012; Minnesota Republican caucuses, 2012; and Missouri Republican primary, 2012

Colorado will hold their non-binding caucuses February 7 for 36 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.

Minnesota will hold their non-binding caucuses February 7 for 40 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.

Missouri will hold their non-binding primary February 7 for 52 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.[250]

Arizona and Michigan

Main articles: Arizona Republican primary, 2012 and Michigan Republican primary, 2012

Arizona will hold their closed primary February 28 for 29 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.

Michigan will hold their closed primary February 28 for 30 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.[251]

Washington state

Main article: Washington Republican caucuses, 2012

Washington will hold their non-binding caucuses March 3 for 43 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.[252]

March 6th: Super Tuesday

Main articles: Super Tuesday and Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

"Super Tuesday" refers to the event when the greatest number of states hold primary elections on the same date. Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire vote first. In the 2008 election cycle, 24 states voted on March 5, but with South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada voting earlier and other states distinguishing themselves, only 10 states will vote on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012: Alaska (27), Georgia (76), Idaho (32), Massachusetts (41), North Dakota (28), Ohio (66), Oklahoma (43), Tennessee (58), Vermont (17), and Virginia (49) - a total of 437 delegates, which is a fifth of all delegates.[253]

March to July: Later states

Main article: Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

From March 6 to July 14, a later series of primaries and caucuses will be held. The rules differ from state to state—delegate selection can be proportional rather than winner take all, and the votes can be binding or non-binding on the representative delegates. In August, the Republican nominating convention will be held in Florida. [254]

Wyoming

Main article: Wyoming Republican caucuses, 2012

Wyoming will be the first state to vote after Super Tuesday. They will hold binding caucuses March 6-10. [255][256]

Week of August 27: Convention

The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled to take place the week of August 27, 2012,[257] in Tampa, Florida,[258] one week before the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.[259]

See also

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